The Athletic Hockey Show - Will Jacob Fowler start for the Habs in the playoffs?

Episode Date: March 12, 2026

Jacob Fowler stole the show in Montreal vs the Senators last night. Hailey Salvian and Dom Luszczyszyn discuss the Habs decision to start him over Sam Montembeault and if the youngster will be the number one goalie heading into the playoffs. They discuss the Washington Capitals, who seem to have derailed since the trade deadline, pending UFA Nick Schmaltz re-signing with Utah, and the NHL modifying the disciplinary sanction originally imposed on the Ottawa Senators’ franchise for its role in connection with the July 2021 trade of Evgenii Dadonov, and they revisit their pre-season award predictions.Host: Hailey SalvianWith: Dom LuszczyszynExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Jeff Domet Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show. What's up, everyone? Welcome to another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. It's Haley Salvian and Dom Luce Chishin here with you for a Thursday edition of the show. It was supposed to be a special best. ies hour edition of the podcast. Sean was trying to be a hero. He is not feeling well.

And he was like, I'll just do the show and won't say that much. and we, you know, he really wanted to be a part of the bestie hour. We told him to, you know, hit the curb. We were like, just get lost. It's Domini today. How do you feel about this? I feel okay. I think we're strong advocates for if you're sick, stay home.

Yeah. And that applies to even at home work. If Sean's voice makes him sound like Kermit the Frog, maybe he shouldn't do a podcast. We try to get him to do ASMR. with his, you did, you did. I did.

And I think that's when he abruptly left. Yeah. Yeah. He was like, that's my side business. You can't, you can't tell.

Everyone's going to know it's me if I start doing this on the podcast. So yeah, no, Sean Gentilly today. It's Dom and I for this Thursday. There was only two games

in the NHL last night. Montreal, Canadians, Ottawa, senators, caps, flyers. We want to zero in on Habs from last night,

though, Sends are in a battle to stay in the Eastern playoff race. Goaltender Jacob Fowler completely steals the show in Montreal. So he was called up on Wednesday from the American Hockey League and Canadians' head

coach Martin-Saint-Louis, essentially giving this young goalie the vote of confidence over Sam Montembow. He said yesterday, if you look at where we are today, the results are important, and I think this is the best decision for the game tonight. That's Martin St. Louis on the decision to recall and start Jacob Fowler last night. Huge save on Claude Drew at the end of that game. 32 saves,

six in the final two minutes. Just a huge, huge night for Jacob Fowler in Montreal. Don, what did you think of this? I thought it was the right choice. I was a bit surprised that he was sent down earlier in the year because he, I think when he was there, was probably the best goalie that Montreal had. And maybe it was the right decision because the extra season in the HL made him phenomenal last night. The last five minutes, he was just on fire. He got the win for the habs.

For the year, he saved 4.2 goals above expected in just 11 games. Montembow has led in 3.7 and 25. So I still have some respect and reverence for Montembo. because he's been so good for the last three or four years for Montreal. And it is a bit disappointing that now when they need him to be great, he's turned into a bit of a pumpkin, but that is goalies for you. With three decent options, if one of them is not going away Montembo isn't,

and you got to ride the hot hand and his confidence is where it is, go with the guy who has been the best for you, and that's been Fowler. This is going to be his net going forward. He's probably going to be Montreal starter of the future. this might be his time to just take the reins because even Jacob Dobish hasn't been great this year he's been kind of average he's been fine whatever if fowler can be what he showed to be last night it's a game changer for for Montreal and like the decision

to play fowler seems relatively easy just based on how poorly montembow's played since the Olympic break arp and basu did a nice story today if you want to read that on the athletic or Montreal Canadiens reporter. In two starts since the Olympic break, Montembow had a four-three overtime loss to the New York Islanders and a six-five shootout loss to the Anaheim ducks. He allowed a tying goal in the dying minutes of regulation in one of those,

and then allowed nine goals on 59 shots, an 8-47, say percentage of 4.28 goals against average. So just a tough stretch when you've got like a young goalie who can win you points, even steal you points, if we go back and look at that Clod Jeru goal. Actually, funny enough, they didn't include that as a save because the statisticians, stestician, oh, my God. I just started to say your last name.

The NHL officials deemed that the shot was going wide. So that huge glove stop or the huge pad save on Clodrew didn't even count officially as a save for Jacob Fowler. So he's getting the Canadians points. It doesn't mean that Montembow is never going to come back or never going to start again or find his game, but this just feels like the right choice for the Montreal Canadians right now. Yeah, I definitely agree. It's hard when you have three goalies, and this is part of the drawback with a three goalie system that a lot of teams are going towards.

But you just got to give the net to foul at this point. He's been that good this year compared to everyone else. Montembow, we had him within our top. 12 goalies in the player 2 years this year. And everyone we talked to was a little down on him. And I think the private data was a bit harsher on him compared to what we have publicly. And this is, this might be why we're kind of seeing his downfall. I think he can bounce back and maybe be a 1B still.

But this is, this is Fowler's net, I think, from now on. Does the starting goalie in Montreal matter all that much when we're thinking about the playoffs and where they could go? we're going to go over your cup race story in more detail in the aftermath of the trade deadline in the next segment, but we can maybe skip ahead a little bit bigger picture for the Montreal Canadians. Like, is this a team that is really going to make a push based on who's in that regardless of them, or are they still just kind of in with the rest of the league? it's it's tough because the east outside of i think tampa and carolina is pretty mid and montreal's

part of that group and part of it is because gold tending is a bit of an achilles heel right now with how montembow and d'olbershe played this year but even with that like the middle of their roster i think still has a michael hage size hole and when he comes in there'll be a contender but for now. That middle six is pretty dire. I'm not in love with the defensive depth, mainly the third pair. They have flaws just like every other East team. I think they can win around, but once they get to Tampa Bay, I think that's where there's going to be trouble. And if Fowler can steal games like he showed he can last night, I think that could be a difference maker because the playoffs, we've seen goalies steal games and series. We've seen this very team.

show that ability with Halakin Price in the past. If Fowler is cut from the same cloth that they're developing him the same way, that could be the difference in a series against Tampa where if he can just match Fasolevsky. Oh, sure. Hey, they could do it. The Montreal Canadians, their third in the Atlantic, by the way, 82 points in the season.

They've won three straight. And when I say, are they in with the rest of the league, I should say, this is how the tears are kind of broken up in the cup watch story we've got the contenders the dark horses the rest of the field and right now on dom's rankings the Montreal Canadians are looking like they're in the rest of the field but that was of course before jacob bowler got called up we'll see if that young goalie could make some waves for the habs once the postseason comes the only other game last night it was the philadelphia flyers against the Washington Capitals flyer score for unanswered goals.

They beat the Caps. Caps have now lost four of their past five games. Does that just kind of verify the reason? Like I know it was shocking for Alex Ovechkin, and we talked about this in the John Carlson trade to Anaheim made a lot of sense for the ducks specifically. But if this is the way that the cap season is going to continue, it probably makes sense that they were grabbing some assets for a guy like John Carlson.

How do you feel about that, Dom? It felt like a vibes destroying trade. If you had as many Capitals fans in your mentions as I did last year, all they would talk about is the power of friendship and how it was propelling their season last year and even the year before that. Carlson seemed to be a big part of that. We saw how it affected a veteran. We saw how it affected Tom Wilson. The vibes need a huge monumental shift.

They might get it when Cole Hudson arrives. And I think that's a big reason why they made the prudent decision to trade Carlson. They have probably someone they think can replace Carlson internally, and they can get a first and I think a third for him back. It just sucks for now, and it's probably the final nail in the coffin for their playoff odds. They're down to 14% right now. But, yeah, it's been a strange season in Washington where they seem like a good team, especially a five and five. their such things have been awful, and they seem to lose a lot of one-goal games

and win a lot of two or three or four-goal games. So weird season, it makes sense from a team-building perspective to move on from Carlson given what's coming up, but for now it's probably the reason they might be out of it. Yeah. Would you have held on to him for the vibes and for the future because John Carlson's still like a meaningful piece.

It's so tricky and I wish our other friend, Sean Gentilly was here to speak about this. This is where he would just randomly be like, I want to train it. No, I don't think I'm not sure he would have. This is why

Sean will be an expert on this subject. He's been around the caps a lot over the last year and he is from Pittsburgh. So he has seen firsthand how Krosby, Malkin, Lattang were treated by that organization. It felt like Carlson was on that same level for Washington, that he was a franchise legend. You saw him retiring with the capitals and being there from start to finish, that it felt

odd the way it came down where he woke up to being traded. It felt like there wasn't the type of respect you would expect for someone of his stature where I think there was a report yesterday as well that Anaheim just kept pushing and pushing and upping the offer until Waging said, all right, fine here you go and i it was it was a good trade um i think but i don't like was it even a good trade like they got as much as uh the blues did for justin falk and i think carlson's way better than that so i guess there's term on falk's deal i guess that makes sense it's just yeah it's a it's a tough way for that era to end yeah it was definitely a surprising trade he makes a ton of sense for the ducks. Pat Rebeke had a one-on-one with Mike Zyisberger at

NHL.com talking about Carlson's fit with the team and it looks like he so he was telling the caps that the ducks were looking to shore up their defense and the caps maybe brought up John Carlson themselves like Verbeek told NHL.com yesterday that the caps asked if we would be interested in John Carlson, and he was like, yes, because of course, he did. And he's close to returning from a lower body injury. He could make his duck's debut against the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight on Thursday night. But a more realistic target, again, according to NHL.com, is the game against the Sends on Saturday or against Montreal on Sunday. So we still haven't seen John Carlson in Anaheim. But if that's true, and the caps were just like, do you want John Carlson? That makes it a little bit

more like, oh, what happened here? Why are you guys doing this? Right. And did they ask anyone else? Was there a bidding more for Carlson's services? I don't know. I do love it for Anaheim, though. I think it might have been nice to get like a defensive stop or a shutdown guy because that's what this team needs. But we've seen teams go shy away from their strengths. And it seems like with Carlson, they're building toward the, like, we have a lot of offensive firepower on the come-up. not get someone who can move the puck and have that second layer attack behind Jackson-Lacombs pair. Okay. Really quickly before we take a break, we want to get to the cup watch. And also, this would have been more fun with Sean. Now we're just sitting here being like, wow,

I wish we would have made Sean sit here quietly and only chime in every few minutes. We're going to revisit our awards predictions that we did the three of us from the beginning of the season. They're horrendous. They're so bad. So we can just dump on all of Sean. Spicks and celebrate our tiny wins, if there are any. But very quickly, before we head to that break, Nick Schmalt signed an eight-year contract extension with the Utah Mammoth yesterday with an average annual value of $8 million. So another potential free agent off the board this summer,

Schmalt said there was never a doubt that Utah is worth. He wanted to play the rest of his career. Very happy to sign an eight-year extension in Utah. He's 30 years old right now. 59 points in 65 games. He was like my favorite fantasy player last year, just like a random dude. I was like, yeah, he's good for a couple points here. I haven't set my fantasy lineup in weeks this season.

You've been tracking that? Are we playing against each other or something? No, I just see you at the bottom of standing. I figure that's usually what happens. I'm over it. It's too much for me. I'm not over my heartbreak of losing in the football championship game. But anyways, Nick Schmaltz 8 times 8, Dom.

You like this deal for him in The Mammoth? I think it is perfectly fair. Like it is right on the money. I had, I think, 7.9 or something. This is so classic where win-win for both sides. I think Utah gets a bit lower on the A-A-V just so that they can have Schmaltz for eight years. I think the term was a big thing for him. That's probably the sticking point for a lot of people. Last three years of this deal will not be good. But the first five should be great. And that is

the UFA experience. And you can just deal with that in five years. Like maybe that's goofy and like maybe I'd be a terrible GM because then like, you know, I would just end up five years down the road being like, where's all my money? I have no cap space. I've overpaid everybody on my roster. But I'm like, whatever. It's a problem for five years from now. I'll deal with it then. On the cap,

on the cap, it's $150 million. Like, it is, like, there are many teams that need to reach the floor that could really use Nick Schmaltz at $8 million. Exactly.

Pick the can down the road. It's fine. All right, let's take a break when we come back. Our Putrid Awards predictions. That's coming up next on the Athletic Hockey Show. All right. We are back on the athletic hockey show.

Haley and Dom, no Sean. No Sean has the man flu. Just a little bit of news that just came out as we were taking a break. This is from Chris Johnson, the NHL, I believe, sent out a press release as well. The league has modified the penalty against the Ottawa Senators for the invalidated of Genni Datenov trade. Remember that one from a couple years ago? The Sends are now going to pick 32nd in the upcoming draft, regardless of where they

finish rather than forfeiting their 2026 first round pick entirely. And all this news did was like remind me that the league actually made the sentence forfeit a first round pick because of all that. Wasn't he like traded to Anaheim? Wasn't that the thing? And he was like, no, this was on my no trade list that you did not disclose. And then the sentence lost a first round pick entirely. Now you get to pick 32nd.

That's really nice. That's great news. they might miss the playoffs and their consolation is picking 32nd. Instead of not at all. It's better than not at all, but the fact they had to forfeit a first round pick for such an inconsequential move, like it's a Dattanoff trade. I think Vegas wasn't allowed to do something else because of it. Vegas is the league's pet, obviously.

They get all this preferential treatment. They get to put Mark Stone on LTIR forever. whatever. It's fine. Leagues villain keeps winning. Senators get got shafted by this. And this is a nice step in the right direction. And it's good that they get a pick at all. But what were we doing here in the first place to have them for the to first out for a, like, obviously it's a massive mistake. I just don't think the punishment fits the crime. Like, just find them. them. Just give them a large fine. That's fine. Yeah. And correct me if I'm wrong, I should have looked this up before we started recording. That was kind of the end of the Pierre Dorian era in Ottawa,

right? That was a Dorian mistake. So that's the end of that. They bring in, you know, usher in this new era, I guess, but I don't know, like that's a clerical error. I don't think Dorian was trying to pull one over on anyone. They just like agreed to a trade without checking and then they lose a first round pick. I don't know. Not great. I just pulled up Corey Pranman's, this was in 2022. Like this was so long ago.

It's ridiculous. Corey Pran had his prospect rankings out yesterday. If we scroll all the way down to tier four, the middle of the lineup player, that is where we will find. the 32nd overall prospect in the 2026 and national draft. So congratulations, the Sends, if you miss the playoffs, you could maybe draft William Hackison or Ryan Rubrik. Great names. That's all I know about them.

I don't know. That's tough. I struggle to find that to be good news. I guess it's nice that they get a pick now. so we've promised it this is not great for us dumb so at the beginning of the season you Sean and I we made some awards predictions and they were they were bad they were quite bad so this is what we're going to do we are going to look at who the current favorite is for these major awards and then we'll see what we all predicted it's going to be a

really fun exercise. It's not going to de-legitimize us as hockey analysts at all. Yeah, like, it's fun. We're being fun and cool. Let's start with the heart. Let's just go right for it. Who's the favorite to win the heart this season, Dom?

Probably Nathan McKinnon. He has been the best five-onpire player this year. He's outscoring teams and then we'll rate. He has the points production that can get him there. He's getting Selky consideration according to

Wershinsky's latest awards watch. So he's been a dominant force on the league's best team. So I think it's him. Show us what we have. Okay. Okay. McDavid, Caprizov, Kutrov.

Okay. Those were our top three. Dom, you at least picked Connor McDavid. I went with Kareil Kaprizov and Sean picked Nikita Kutrov. And I think we all acknowledge, like, oops, nobody took Nathan McKinnon.

in the moment. But I think we were all just trying to be like, let's be unique. All of us? Like other than you. All of us? Sean and I were like, let's think of something crazy. Was I the one? Well, it's a, I think there's a four person race, right? At least among four, it's you might get a D in there.

You might get Seroke in there. It's Caprizov anywhere in the conversation right now. No, probably not. Kuturov definitely is. He has some Gretzky-like numbers over the last two or three months. So he's, he's there. He has, he could win it himself. To some people, he might be the favorite.

I still take McKinnon. Two of us are okay. One of us are bad. That's okay because the next one probably isn't great either. Oh, it's very bad. Okay, Calder favorite. It's clearly Matthew Schaefer, right? Yeah.

Obviously, we should have seen this coming. Obviously. Uh-huh, uh-huh. Let's see who we picked. Okay, so Sean did okay. like Demidov. He scored for the HABs last night.

Good job, Sean. I picked Zev Bouyam. I'd obviously like just read a bunch of Mike Russo propaganda before that episode. And then you picked Renzel. Yep.

Mm-hmm. Yes. Let's go through our thought process here because I think we both had the same one. We thought that these two two guys would run their power plays and get a bunch of points. And I think we both thought that Matthew Schaefer was not a lock to make the Islanders because we did this relatively early in the off season.

I think if he knew Schaefer was making the team, one of us was taking Schaefer, but it still, I think, shows how unprecedentedly great he's been as an 18-year-old. Like, 18-year-old defensemen usually suck. There's a reason they don't make the team. is a hard league for defensemen. Schaefer makes it look easy every night. And that's why he's getting the capital G word treatment some nights where he looks like a generational defenseman.

Yeah. Yeah. And I think at that point, there was nothing, everything was very noncommittal of like he's just going to enjoy the ride at training camp. And the islanders didn't look like they were going to be great this season. So there was this question of like, do you just let him marinate? in a different league rather than force him into a team that might be bad,

he's not really going to have opportunities to, like, score, play his game. And that just hasn't been the case. So just really, really dumb, really dumb by us. Someone should have just been like, whatever, I'm taking Schaefer. It would have been smarter. I blame me. It would have been smarter. Corey Pranman and Scott Wheeler for not hyping this guy up more.

I didn't know he had this in and all. I don't pay attention to the prospects at all on Drap Night. I'll read some profiles from our boys. We all loved him after the draft night Like the stuff with his mom And like his suit Every interview with Matthew Schaefer It's like oh my God

Like I love this kid And then a couple months later He's like people are asking Should he be on Team Canada And very obviously They called her favorite so I just he wasn't talked about As like a franchise

He's changing player in this way And I think his comparison Was Neuro Heiskenen which is probably fair given the type of game he plays and his skating and his defending and the whole package. And I don't want to throw my friends on the bus here. Like, Schaefer didn't play a lot last year. He didn't get a lot of viewings.

And he has probably blossomed into a level that few could have seen coming. It's just, I think I'm just trying to give us some cover for why we didn't pick him. He didn't have the hype that is displaying right now. Miro Haskinen's great, didn't win the colder. Yeah. So, the Norris isn't that bad. Norris isn't that bad. I picked Quinn Hughes.

You picked McCar. Sean picked Rosmas Dahlene. That's not terrible. That is perfectly defensible. Do you think McCar is going to win this year? I think McCar is probably still the favorite, but it is become razor. thin and I think this is like the deepest field of Norris contenders we've ever seen like

yeah like if I just rattle off the list of players in the top like defense in the top 15 there's eight of them McCar Hudson Sider Bouchard Sanderson Dahlia Morrinsky Hughes like if you pick any of those guys there's a strong case to be made and I think that'll make some people angry we were like, how do you have this guy favorite? There should be this guy. Like, they're all really close. And this will be, I think, the most, the biggest vibe pick in terms of who you,

it's like you're just taking whoever your favorite is. And I don't, I really don't think there's a wrong answer. There's a lot of, there's a big push for Orenski who we don't have. I think we talked about him as someone we didn't vote for, though. We did acknowledge that. That could have been a mistake. Yeah.

I think the Dahlian pick is coming around. He obviously started the season off slow. for very obvious reasons, like his sister who's not doing well health-wise. Since he came back from Sweden, he has been maybe one of the best defense in the world. He's been that good for the savers. He's one of the biggest reasons.

They've maintained this special pace going forward, and especially over the last month or two, he's been on fire and put himself back into this conversation. Yeah. And also should mention Quinn Hughes, since being traded to the Minnesota Wild, 41 points in 33 games. Like, I think that killed my Booion pick,

and that's not my fault. Who would have thought that Quinn Hughes would get traded to the Minnesota Wild? Not me. Not me. We can skip the Selke and go to the Vesna. Because this, I don't know if it's, who's the favorite for the Vesna right now?

This is me being like, I don't want to say this isn't terrible. It's not bad. Can I come down to Sorokin or Basilewski? This one's voted by the GMs. It's voted by the GMs and they could look at how Sorokin is carrying the islanders or they could say Basilevsky has a lot of wins. Wee!

They might do that. Bassovsky has been great. I think Sorokin has been on another level this year entirely. I would give it to him, but who knows how the GMs vote. So we didn't pick either of those two. Okay, great. He went with Shasturkin. Sean went Hella Buck.

I went Jake Ottinger. Those, that's goalies for you. That's not our fault. Goleys are weird. Imagine taking Hellebubbup and that being one of the worst picks of the group. Like, he just, it's just so funny. Except he was so good at the Olympics. That really pissed me off.

I thought he was supposed to turn into a pumpkin. He did the opposite of his usual thing where he was clutch when it matter and has been normal otherwise. Pretty good bit. Pretty good bit. Very rude. As Selki, we did pick Reinhardt Heeshire and Anthony Sorelli, which is fine. The favor is probably Suzuki. This has been a fun year.

It's been a chaotic year. I don't think, like especially if you look at the teams, not to segue for you, but if you look at the teams, and the standings right now, no one in their right mind at the start of the season be like, yeah, I think that's how it'll shake out, shake down. And I think that's the fun transition point. Yes, it's kind of, it's humbling to go back and look at our predictions.

It's like a funny little thing to do on a day on the podcast when there was only two games the night before. But I think it really does speak to how bad, like, everyone was at, predicting this season. It's been a little bit chaos. And we can touch on some of this with the trade deadline aftermath, looking at the cup favorites. And if we, like, compared that to the preseason team previews and, like, the rankings. You know, like, Toronto Maple Leafs, they were going to be good this year.

Pittsburgh Penguins, I think you guys had them bottom two or three. I don't think anyone predicted the Buffalo Sabres would be leading the Atlantic Division like there's been a lot of chaos this season like just how unpredictable has this season been

for like prognosticators Dom this is how bad it's been I touched on this in 16 stats last week where usually the odds makers are a strong barometer for what's going to happen this year, if you bet against every favorite to miss the playoffs and every underdog to make the playoffs,

usually you're going to lose money. That's just the way it goes. You can't just bet the underdog for every pick. If you did that this year, you would have made a fortune. That's how unlikely a lot of these playoff teams are. That's how unlikely a lot of these misses are. To the point that if you were to take every prediction made this year,

So that's my model, other models, the betting market. J. Fresh runs a fan prediction contest every year. So he has thousands of submissions of standing predictions. The average error for points, so if I guess 95 and a team got 90, that's five points of error. And you average that up for all 32 teams. The best prediction at the start of the year would have been, I think every team is going to get 91 points. that's how chaotic it's been where if you just said, I don't know, flip a coin, you are better than everyone,

which is I think a testament to how wild and unpredictable season's been, which is part of the fun. I think this is what makes hockey great is we are seeing a season where literally any team can win and we're seeing the playoffs make out that way where the East has four to six teams that didn't make it last, year something along the lines and it's going to be fun. Is there one team that shocked you the most in terms of the projection and where they're at?

That is tough. Is it the ducks leading the Pacific? Well, leading to Pacific is kind of a... What? You don't think that matters? That's like me winning a race against five-year-olds. Like, it's the Pacific. it is surprising that Vegas and Edmonton have been bad enough that like Anaheim is leading. I think people did see Anaheim taking a step.

I think a lot of the chaos is in the east where Pittsburgh and the Islanders, I think, are two teams that people did not expect to do anything this year. Boston as well. Buffalo, I was one of the most optimistic people about them. and I had them like 90 points just because like the market had like 80 points to start the year and they might win the Atlantic that's just the way it is.

It might, to me it's kind of surprising that Florida, Toronto, they played such an epic playoff series last year in the second round. They look like contending teams. Like they look like warriors and they just have limped all year and just not made in.

Florida has an excuse. They didn't have Barkav. They didn't have Kachuk. They had a lot of injuries. They've played a lot of. coffee the last three years. The Leafs clock struck midnight on a team that was winning a lot of one-goal games and depending on goal tending.

So it's not too surprising about the direction some of these teams went. It's just the sheer magnitude of it. Rangers, too. I thought Sullivan was a great coach. I thought it was a great hire. I thought they'd be fine. A lot of other people did too. They're the worst team at least.

It's a fun season. I think the Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the ones that, like, you guys had them in the preseason as the second or third worst team. I think third, yeah. Other projections. Sean was on local radio in Pittsburgh talking about how they're going to be horrendous this season. And they're playing, like, good, relevant hockey.

Emphasis on good. Yeah, and like they're doing it and like Eric Carlson's been great. Chris LaTang has looked better. I'm trying to the, Justin Brazo like starts the season

looking unbelievable beside of Denny Malkin. Anthony Manta's playing great. They've got young players who are making a meaningful impact on the roster. And it's almost funny to have the conversation. of the penguins and leaves beside each other when we know who's the architect

of this Pittsburgh penguin season. Kyle Dubus may be girl boss too close to the sun. I thought they were going to gun for like a retool and now they're accidentally good. I don't think it's an accident though. I think Kyle Dubus is a good general manager. I was like, let's get some like good cheap options, some good young players, we'll use our assets correctly.

And ooh, the penguins are relevant again. Yeah. Part of our reasoning for the penguins being bad is they, we thought they would trade a lot of players. Raquel, Rust, Carlson even. And they obviously didn't do that because they were so good right off the bat. And you talk about dubous girl bossing a bit too close to sun. I think a lot of these acquisitions were made for the the reason to trade them for assets for this retool. Like I think they looked at Manta and said, we think it can be a solid top six player for us. We can probably get a second round pick at the deadline for him

as we boost his value. Maybe same with Brazo. And instead they turn into integral pieces of this return, which like I think it's the best case scenario to see one last dance with this core. because that's what I've been wanting for the last three years and they kept coming up short of expectations. This year they had no expectations and maybe that helps a little bit where they come in thinking,

okay, everyone thinks we suck, let's prove them wrong. And they have and Dan Euse deserves so much credit for all of this because I remember when the penguins hired him, I said, who'd at? And I think a lot of people also said that. Not me. not you. I'd interviewed him before and was like, I like that Dan Mews.

Oh, look at that. You should have tweeted something because I had no idea. I like that Dan Mews fellow. That's my tweet. Look at him now. I think one of the strong parameters for whether coach is good is you look at the special teams and see how good they are. And Penguins have been really strong in both power play and highly kill,

despite a personnel group that maybe shouldn't be. getting those kinds of results. It's been it's been amazing to witness. I really want to see another Crosby playoff run whether that's a series whether that's three we all want to see it. I can't wait. Ben Kendall's been great too. Just another name drop to their 11th. Doe Bass W. 11th overall picked by the Penguins in 2025. He's been great. I think watching the penguins, one of the more surprising things. And maybe it shouldn't be just based on the results over the last couple years,

just watching them under Dan Mews. It's just like, damn, this looks really bad on Mike Sullivan. Just the way that they were playing the last two years. It's just like, oof. I guess maybe it was, maybe they should have moved on a little bit sooner. No one's going to, I think it's fine that they stuck with their guy

as long as they did. But now you're looking at a new coach and a new playing style and a new voice. And you're like, ooh. Oh, this is making a big difference. So Pittsburgh Penguins, they've been a big story this season, Toronto Maple Leafs. And penguins flip-flopping a little bit. Let's throw in a break here.

When we come back, we will go through the Cup Watch. That's coming up next on the Athletic Cockat Show. All right, we are back. One final thing, I guess, on the Pittsburgh Penguins, I should have asked. Where are they at on the Cup contender watch list from Dom Lus Chishin? Like, we're saying all this nice stuff. about the Pittsburgh Penguins, are they a realistic playoff contender in your mind? Probably not. This is such a weird season that, like, usually my model gives deference to teams

with the track record. And so a lot of those teams show up at the top of the list. And they show up pretty emphatically because the field feels so much more random with a lot of middling teams that I'd expect the lightning, the hurricanes, the avalanche to have a much easier time in the first round and maybe even the second round for those East teams where I think lightning and hurricanes are like head and shoulders above the rest of the East. So that middle group, they have a very winnable first round. They can have a successful season. Pittsburgh, if they play the Islanders, they can win that series. hurricanes are probably a very different story and we saw a bit of that play out earlier this week where they had a very spirited comeback against Frederick Anderson who's been kind of weak this year but it was the hurricanes controlling that game from start to finish so I don't think they're a contender I think there's a lot of teams that maybe qualify in the happy to be their category

and I'm happy they're there but I don't know if they can make a lot of noise and how strong the top two teams of the Easter. So they're in like the rest, which means they have a zero to two percent chance at winning the Stanley Cup. It makes sense based on, you know, everything we've just talked about. Like, that's fine.

I'm not shocked. I'm not appalled by the penguins being lower down, although like that probably means they're going to make it to the Eastern Conference final or something the way the things have been going. What is a little bit more surprising, especially considering Sean Gentilly, McIndoo and Frankie Corrado spent so much time gassing up the Buffalo Sabres,

who had an incredible win against the Tampa Bay Lightning earlier this week. The Buffalo Sabres are in the same tier as the Pittsburgh Penguins, zero to two percent chance at making the playoffs. There's so much to love about the Buffalo Sabres this season that I was surprised I had to scroll so far down. Dom, why are you hating on the Sabres? Why are you doing this to us? Do you remember the show we talked about awards where I was gassing up the Sabers so. much because I thought, like, I was one of the more optimistic people about them. A lot of the models

were they have a, they had a very young team. They had a lot of bad luck in past years, last decades, whatever. They looked like they could be a team on the rise that can finally figure it out once everyone gave up on them. And they have absolutely done that. Obviously, they barely lose anymore. It's great to see. Every day they win, they don't move up that much in my model. It's because unfortunately the way they're winning is not the way maybe the lightning or the ablanch win where they control the run of play. Since December, early December, when they started this run, they have a 49% XG rate

and the highest PDO in the league. And I think they're a great finishing team. I think they have the forward depth and talents to be on the top finishers in the league and make pay with that. That's their strength. That's their advantage. But what's surprised me is that a lot of this wing streak is because they have the best goaltending in the league. And when the tandem is Alex Lyon and Ugo Peck-Lukinen, I'm not as inspired by that tandem to believe that aspect of it is real. And you look at it like that game against Tampa Bay is a perfect example where Lukinen gives up seven.

And yes, the Sabre scored eight heroic. I don't care as much because Jonas Johansson was on the other side and he stinks. Like that's a different game with Vasilevsky and that where maybe it's like seven, four. And I think the seven part is the worrying side for me where I think the sabres have the firepower to hang with anyone in the east. Maybe not the top end. They don't have a Kutrov like the Lighting Jew and that's my biggest fear. but they, I think, defensively still have a bit of work to do as a young team.

I mean, they have a pretty good goal differential plus 35, but is your model basically, like, the model is looking at their eight game win streak, them being at the top of the division is a bit of like, I don't want to say smoke and mirrors, but it's not really buying it as true contender status. It's buying them as a good team. They're a good team.

I think I'm definitely underselling them in some way. There's a part of this where teams have like a swagger or about them where they know they can win and they do what's needed to win. And I think Buffalo this year is figuring out

the exact necessary thing to do to win where there are a lot of games like during this streak where their XG isn't that good. There's a lot of games where they have put the team away early. Like in the first period the second period where they might still lean and it's a bunch of garbage time they're allowing

chances, which is fine. But I think when the playoffs come around, they I'll, I think they'll win the first round. I think Tabe will be a welcome to the playoffs moment where they see just how high the level

has to go. I personally hope the sabres go all the way because it's awesome. I just have a bit more caution based on how they're getting wins during the streak where everything's going right. They've spent a lot of time where everything has gone wrong,

so why not? But why are, so this is where I start to like attack you and your model, it's not personal. Why are the Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators dark horses in the east, but the Sabres and the Penguins are not? So the blue jackets... It's fishy to be, Dom. It's a little fishy to me.

The Sends aren't even in a play. off spot. We all know I'm paid by big Sends and big blue jackets. The two drivers of the NHL. The blue jackets have been a bit of a model pet this year. Like, even before they got bonus behind the bench, like, I think they were last in the East and my model still getting like a 30% chance to make the playoffs because the underlying team still felt solid.

they have a great defense backed by Zapparensky. But the big thing was Jet Grieves, who over the last two years has saved more goals of expected per game than any goal in the league. Any goalie. Hala Buk. Sorokin, Vasselowski, Shasturkin. Jet Greaves might be the future.

And I don't think, like, I... So that is the main reason that my model loves, Columbus a bit more is that during the playoffs Jet Reeves should should because they do start Elvis a lot Jetgreaves should get the bulk of the starts and that gives Columbus a bit more series

stealing potential. The other thing is that Columbus is in a much weaker part of the bracket. Like if Columbus gets the Islanders in round one, the Sabres get Montreal I think the Sabres are closer to 50-50 there Columbus, I think, would be a considerable favorite over the onenders because the onenders don't control play very well. And then I think Tambay is way stronger than Carolina, where the path has a lot to do it with it for Columbus. Ottawa has been the best possession team

since the new year. So that is their strength is start of the season. They were a good team getting completely sunk by goaltending. Since Almark has come back, they've been a lot better. because he just has to be average. That's all he has to be because of how well they create chances and especially suppress chance. I think defensively they're one of the best teams in the league. And we talk about defense winning championships. The Sends defense, when healthy, is really good.

Yeah, Jake Sanderson's great. But Allmark wasn't very good last night against the HAB. No, no, he was not. Something to keep an eye on. We'll see if that turns into another problem. Okay, I want to get to the contenders really quick. like the true contenders. And I guess I just have two questions.

Why is Tampa such a heavy favorite? And why is Colorado not the favorite? Especially when, and I should say, Tampa Bay is a 33% chance to win the Stanley Cup. The Colorado Avalanche are at 22%. And that's despite you saying that Nausema Codry was the biggest needle mover at the deadline added to a team that already includes Kail McCar and Nathan McKinnon.

So why is Tampa so far ahead the pack and a pack that includes a team like the abs who have lost what 10 games in regulation this season? Explain yourself. You're right. It does deserve explanation. I think it is something that I have looked at every day wondering how I have Tampa Bay this high. So, like, all the concepts I just talk about are relevant here.

So we have track records where Tampa and Colorado, I think, have been the best two teams will last two years probably. I think not just this year. Past seasons matter. And Tampa Bay having one of the best gold differentials in the league last year matters a bit to this discussion. The big thing for Tampa Bay is the same thing that applies to, Columbus, which is the bracket and goal tending.

So Vasselowski starting every game is a massive advantage for a team that is deep at every position and has so much star power because usually you'll see these great teams have to make sacrifices somewhere along lines and usually it's a net. So Edmonton, their Achilles heel is always goaltending. Vegas after Achilles heel, Carolina, same thing. Tampa doesn't have that problem. They have one of the best goalies in the world. So when he's starting every night, they have a better chance to win.

Compared to Colorado, where Blackwood is a great goalie, he's just not Basilevsky. So that makes them a bit more even in terms of their projected playoff strength. Where in a playoff series, I do have lightning ahead just because of Basilewski. The other reason is that Colorado, they'll have a cupcake first round matchup, just like the lightning will. but the second round they have to face Dallas or Minnesota, which is going to be a gauntlet. It's going to be a difficult series.

It's a series Colorado is heavily favored in, but not to the extent that Tampa Bay would be against like any team in the east. So that second round matchup that should be a lot easier to Tampa where they might have like an 80% chance against anyone in the Atlantic, that plays, I think, the biggest role

where if they both make the finals, it'll be closer to a coin flip, and I'd probably lean Tampa Bay just because of goaltending. But the path to get there is so much easier for the lightning. So that's the big reason. Okay.

So it's kind of a credit to the strength of the central and just how chaotic and kind of mid the east has been this season. All right. Fun. Thanks, Dom.

That's it. I think we're done. What a great show. Oh, wow. We didn't need Sean. Who needs Sean didilly? Not us. Not us.

I hope he feels better, though, I guess. Because I don't want to have to do this again next week. I wish we could pop in for five minutes just so, like, viewers were here for the whole thing to just hear his, like, raspy voice. Yeah. Like, imagine if he did the ESMR now. That would be a great callback. And we'll never get that. Yeah.

We should get him to send an audio drop in. for producer Jeff. Just throw that in there for everyone to know what we're talking about. No, it was ridiculous. He was like, no, I'll still do the show. I'll just, you know, nod for the video and chime in every once in a while. It's like, what are you talking about? Just go to bed.

You don't have to be a hero. It's fine. We've got this. We don't need you. We ended up doing this fine. So Dom, thank you for stepping in for Sean. Thanks, thanks everyone for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. The Prospect Boys have our next show on.

Friday. 14 games in the NHL tonight. Ooh, poor you're going to have to deal with sick Sean during power rankings with that many games. He is going to be sick and cranky. That's tough. Tough combo.

It's hard enough getting a text from him under normal conditions. Hey, it's power rankings time. Six hours later. All right. Let's get going. So today could be tough because we know for a fact there's going to be

like a 6 to 7 p.m. Danger zone nap mixed in there. Oh my god. Yeah, of course. So you might like about 3.m. All I know about Sean is that that dude naps like every, every Thursday. Well, here's the thing. Scientifically, it's proven that napping increases brain power.

I read this the other day. And this one I did read. Yeah, you didn't TikTok that one? This one wasn't on TikTok. This one I read. on Twitter. Well, good luck to you, Dom. Good luck to the power rankings readers.

Everyone be on like typo watch for Sean's blurbs tomorrow. It's going to be a rough one. Thanks everyone for listening. Prospect boys have it on Friday. Hopefully Sean will be back next Thursday.