The Athletic Hockey Show - Will Leo Carlsson stay with the Ducks?

Episode Date: July 6, 2026

The NHL offseason has been a wild one so far and the Philadelphia Flyers’ five-year, $90 million offer sheet to the Anaheim Ducks’ Leo Carlsson is just the latest in a string of major events. The guys break down how they think it’ll all play out and then dive into Corey’s first 2027 NHL Mock Draft, with Everett Silvertips defenseman Landon DuPont going first overall. Plus, the guys close things out with listener questions in the mailbag and Chris gets a nice surprise at the end of the show!Hosts: Max Bultman, Corey Pronman, and Scott WheelerWith: FloHockey’s Chris PetersExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris FlanneryWatch full episodes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowJoin our Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VTm9VjkFSubscribe to The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside the athletics, Corey Prondman and Scott Wheeler and Flohockeys, Chris Peters for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Fun show on tap for you today. Corey's got a 2027 mock draft, really more of a 2027 ranking, I think, and how we'll discuss it today out for next season. So our first look ahead to next year's draft class, we got a mailbag on tap. But we got to start, guys, with the earth-shaking news. of the weekend. The Philadelphia Flyers tendering an $18 million a year by five-year offer sheet to Leo Carlson. This is seismic for a lot of reasons. It has big picture implications for the

NHL. But I think first, Corey, we got to start with the impact on the Anaheim Ducks and the decision they now face to match it because this was a team that we talked about it through the draft process even, like one of the teams that's really headed in a really promising direction in the NHL with their young forward core. And at the center of it is Leo. He is now set to become the highest paid player in the National Hockey League. And as good as Leo Carlson is, and he is awesome, and he's going to even get better. The highest paid player in the league has a weight to it, and it really impacts what Anaheim can do in the short and the long term now. Yeah, and I think once you get past Macklin-Selabrini, Connor, Matt Schaefer, I think you're starting, you mentioned Leo in the next one or two names in terms of best young players in the league.

Like he's a projected number one centerman who can drive play and it's going to put up a lot of points. And he has size skating elite skills. Like it's a very, you know, he's an awesome player. I think we are all getting used to these new cap numbers we're seeing. I think we're getting used to seeing Bowen Byram get 12. And we're used to seeing Pavel Mitchikov now at seven. And obviously this now the giant number, we're seeing Carlson get appreciated. I'm not saying that any of these players,

Obviously, Mitchikov had a thread in an offer sheet, and this was an offer sheet. But obviously, there's going to have to be a recalibration in general of what we think of when we think of player salaries. I have, however, seen a lot of really bad analysis on the Internet when it comes to some of these contracts and what players are worth and the different. And particularly people who look at Carlson and say, well, he's 18 million and Caprazov is 17 million. And it's like, well, that's not apples to apples at all for a bunch of reasons. One is you have to look at the percentage of the cap when those two players sign their contract. Also, Capresolve is a pure UFA contract. These are supposed to be Carlson's cost-controlled years, supposedly.

And obviously, these are not, this is now not going to be cost-controlled at all. These are RFA years. So you're thinking about a guy who in another time, this would have been like considered a, you know, a 20 plus million dollar contract in terms of UFA value. It's a lot. And you think Anaheim has to match it. Like, there's no way. If you look at how good Philly is going to be if they get Carlson, those are going to be late first.

And there's no way that makes sense. The question now with Anaheim is, how do you make your team work now going forward? And I still think they can. Like, they're not going to lose Gochay and Seneca. They'll find that you can, you can, you can, find ways to move pieces and make and find money there's always a way to find money even in a hard cap the question is now you you thought you had this great young core we're going to build a run we're going to go sign free agents we're going to go trade for guys we're going to go make a run

and get out of the deadline and that's obviously not going to happen now so now you got to find value elsewhere but i still think it's a great young core guys yeah it's almost inevitable that they have to shed i mean it's not just that you're build around you're going to you're going to lose guys I mean, they already lost defensemen from their roster, John Carlson and Jacob Troub. It seems inevitable now. One of Chris Kreider or Alex Kalorn is almost going to have to go out just to make everything work for them next season.

And so they're very plausibly going to take a step back next year, Scott, assuming they match it. Am I fair to assume that you would also match this, Scott? I would also match it, but my grub with all of this is like, just sign your players early. Like just get this over with, don't be, don't play hardball. And I know Corey talked about this being RFA years. The RFA years were recalibrated a long time ago.

Austin Matthews and Mitch Marner reset the market on what an 18, 19, 20 year old can get signed for on their first contract and what that money looks like. And it looking like UFA money and William Neelander held out like Toronto kind of made this bed for everybody else. And now the league has to deal with it. And it seems like there are a select number of general managers who have figured that out and have got their work done early and have paid their guys and given their guys term. You look at what Montreal's done. And then there are other general managers who still seem to think that they can play hardball with the best young players in the world and get these guys to cave or to come down to a number that they thought they might not feel comfortable with. And that's just not the kids. These kids know their leverage.

and with the cap going up and going up to the numbers that it's going to go up to over the next two or three years. Now, we'll see whether that stays. I have serious doubts on whether this kind of incline continues. But we know that at least for the next two or three years, it is going to look like this. And all of a sudden, the offer sheet becomes a much easier tool for teams to stomach because they can afford to throw out crazy numbers over the next couple of years. But it's on, like, this is on Pat Verbeek to have gotten this deal done prior to this prior to the offer sheet window becoming a reality for him. And now they have to live with this. And it's

their own making. Like I have no sympathy for for these guys who are now getting offer sheeted. Scott, when I met by a cost to, I didn't insinuate he was going to get like $5 million or something like on a bridge deal. But I, but something like, you know, 10 million, 11, 12, which is I think that was the numbers that were actually being thrown around. Something like what Bedard's being thrown around with a little over what Demadoff got. But like this is UFA dollars. I mean, just got a curiosity, guys. Let's say you were at NHLGM, you had reasonable, you know, plenty of cap space. And Leo Carlson, 22-year-old is a UFA right now. What would you offer him on a seven-year contract, A.A.V.

Probably 14 or 15 million, but the offer sheet factor of this is that you have to make it so uncomfortable for Anaheim, right? And that's, so it's all baked in. It's you're losing the picks and you have to overpay. You would offer him 14 or 15? for a UFA 23-year-old on a 22-year-old on a seven-year-old, you don't think he would get like 17, 18, 19 on the free market? Well, I'm looking at what other, I mean, I, the age fat, we don't ever see players that age.

Right, but that's why. But that's, I'm just saying, and that's, my point is more like this is almost like, you know, UFA dollars he's getting right now. It is UFA dollars. It is more than UFA dollars. Yeah, that's my point. Like, it's not that I think he's not going to age into this being a still a fine contract by the very end, but it's only five years is the thing, right?

It's not a seven-year deal. And he gets walked into free agency by this. At 26, right? Yeah, insane. I mean, like, yeah, it's really a bind. And you look at this and Corey asked about the Young Corps. Young Corps is pretty good. Second tier of this roster, not so good.

And I look at the blue line right now and where it is relative to where it was last year, the reason they had to pay Pavlomintukov 7.2 million a year is because they had nothing else. I'm more offended by that contract than paying Carlson $20 million here. Me too. Me too. That to me... I don't understand how he gets Brandt Clark money in the same window that Brant Clark got that money when Brant Clark kept 45 points. Yeah, and this is the reason.

You look at the rest of their roster. Nick Jensen, Ian Moore, Drew Hellison, Tristan Luno, Tyson, Tyson-Hinez. They had to get rid of Olin Zellweger. They had to get rid of Truba. They had to get rid of Goudis. This blue line is rough, unless you're going to play Jackson-Locom 38 minutes a night. They gave up a ton last year. Are Heinz and Noah Warren going to play for them this year now?

They're going to have to probably and are they going to help you? Yeah, like, Luna is going to have to play like top four for them this year. And that's not a position that I think he's prepared for. He's had some good HL years. But, you know, so I do think that now they're they're in a position where you are going to have to overcomit to your core in the same way. in the same way that we saw Toronto do. And this is now all of a sudden, when you look at team building,

I think Toronto is viewed as a failure of overpaying your core. And now this is really the situation that I think Anaheim is going to find themselves in. We are talking about a team that was ahead of schedule last year. I thought that them winning a series against Edmonton was a way ahead of schedule situation

for this particular roster. Now you're a little bit worse and you're a lot more expensive in this scenario. So I agree. I'm with everybody. You've got to, you have to match that offer sheet to Leo Carlson. I would have done it yesterday. Yeah.

You know, like, and that's the thing is that this is all of the sudden. And to Scott's point, this is a situation completely of Anaheim's own making. You can. If you were handling over 11 or 12. Oh, like. I mean, there was. what I saw there was like,

Leo was basically like on the record saying that he would have taken like last year would have taken like nine, nine and a half. And it's like, you know, it was in a Swedish press and I apologize for sharing that without attributing. Because I forget exactly where I saw it. But like nine and a half, like if that was the case, you're in, you're in deep trouble now.

And the thing is you can draft as well as you want to. You can develop as well as you want to. if you don't protect your assets, when did they become more expensive? The other thing that drives me nuts about this, are the Samueli's not one of the richest owners in the damn league? Like, seriously. Like, you're operating on a budget,

and I understand that. But be a big league owner or don't be. I don't know that this was Little League BS to me. But that's where, like, Scott's point about the executives, I think really rings true there. Because, you know, I don't know the inner workings of at what level of the organization you take it to. but Pat Verbeek comes from the grinding school, right?

And that applies to his former boss in Detroit, Steve Isman. Both of those guys have had some really grinding negotiations with like Lucas Raymond and Mo Sider both went into September on their long-term RFA deals that were like in the mid-eightes and are now two of the 15 best contracts in the NHL. Like why did you need to grind it that hard? And Verbeek is cut from that same cloth. I don't know that I'm willing to say this is a Samuel E put his foot down thing and not just this is how Pavarbeek does.

business thing, Scott. And Pat Verbeek clearly needs to learn from this. Like, this needs to be a lesson of maybe I went about doing my business the wrong way, not I need to dig my heels in and, and toughen up even further. Like the league is changing. These kids are changing. Clearly the way their agents are operating is changing. And that is all out of your control.

What you can control is the offers that you make to these kids early and the length and the term that you commit to these kids early. Corey, you made a point earlier about RFA versus UFA. And the point you're making is that in theory, the team is supposed to be able to get you a little cheaper in these years. Between, you know, basically year four, so whether it's seven, whether it's 10 of your career,

depending on how long you sign, those are supposed to be the value years besides your ELC, which is dirt cheap. Well, you're supposed to be negotiating with yourself most of the time. I mean, I know offer sheets exist, but you know, you're not supposed to be talking, having other 15, 20 teams going after your players, so you should be

gaining them a little cheaper. Yeah, and I think there's two kind of ripples now from this. One, have we more normalized the idea of the offer sheet? And it's been such a talking point from my entire career that every time it's discussed, it's like, yeah, maybe.

We've now seen two this summer, including a massive one, including one that would make a guy the highest paid player in the National Hockey League. There's the impact on RFAs, right? Adam Fantilly, Connor Bedard, all those guys. I think that is an obvious ripple.

The second one is, I think all the guys who are a year or two out from UFA, and we've been seeing teams and players come to agreements here before getting to unrestricted free agency, there is a clear indicator now of how much money is out there in the market. And right now this is being spent on to Corey's point of 21-year-old, but we've seen the reported number on Jason Robertson in Seattle and what they would have been willing to give him. Does this have any chance to revive free agency now that players can see like, oh, my gosh, this is the kind of money that teams are willing to throw.

around for a great player. Well, I think once we get past the point where you can sign eight-year contracts, I think free agency is going to come back with a roar. I mean, that's why you have seen so many long-term deals. This is their last kick at the can at the eight-year contracts. And I think we're just having to get used to a new pay scale. I don't know if it's going to dramatically change free agency,

but obviously there's a rising cap. I think that's the one distinction between Anaheim in Toronto, is Toronto got kind of screwed by the flat cap there for a couple of years when they built that core. Not saying Anon is going to get saved by a rising cap, but there'll be at least a little bit more wiggle room there. And obviously, they hope that some of these kids develop and they get some value from some of these second, third round picks and whatnot.

Yeah, but it's tough. Like, it's definitely a balance here in terms of trying to make, you know, there's some overpays happening, but I think in the context of this new era, I don't know if these are going to be considered dramatic overpaid. Even if Robertson did get like 18 million, I think. That's just what the percentage of the, the cap is for a star player. There's also a scenario here, I think, where we've maybe been too harsh on the ducks

in terms of what the runway looks like for some of those young kids. Are they worse on paper with in and out contracts? Yes, but you're counting on Beckett and Leo and Cutter to continue to get better. Now, that absolutely has to happen. There's no margin for error of any of those three players plateauing, right? One of those three guys plateaus, you're in big trouble. But if all three of those guys get better, you're a better team, even with some of the losses.

To Max's point about whether these are here to stay, too. It kind of feels as long as the Tulsafe management groups around in Carolina. These are going to be here to stay. And as well, another kind of analytic heavy group. We haven't even talked about one that's actually still out there. Barrett Hayton is signed an offer sheet by New Jersey. And I think that one's got a chance to go through, quite frankly. I think it would be really, because I think, you know,

Barrett Hayden's name's been out there for a long time. in terms of trade rumors. So it wouldn't shock me if Utah just cut bait there. Yeah, it's a second round pick in the return for him, correct? Yeah. So second round. Yeah. I think it's what they give him $5 million or not.

Yeah, yeah. So like, and the other thing too is that if they match, they can't trade them. And it walks them to free agency. It walks them to free agency. It's a tough one. And I think where Utah is,

this is an interesting one because where Utah is right now, yes, he's been on the block and in a second round pick isn't nothing. but like where you're at right now, wouldn't you rather have the center at that point? Wouldn't you rather have the player for this season? And basically you're just basically using them as your own rental. It's not a crazy number either.

Like the Leafs sign Colton Sisson's in the four millions. And he's a fourth line 10 point guy. The high fours for Barrett Hayton in this new environment is not unpalatable. I think what's unpalatable would be potentially losing him a year from now for nothing. If you didn't get troche, it'd be different. but I think when you, now that they've added Trocheck, I think it changes a little bit there.

Yeah, for sure. Great point. Yeah, and absolutely. I think that, you know, just I would probably still rather have Barrett Hayton, but I think the scenario around him, not, not, I wouldn't rather him over Vince Trochak, but like just having the player, but the situation around him does make that a bit more challenge. Their calculus on Caleb Dainway and Tijigan also factors in there, right?

Sure. And just in terms of the roster spots that they may or may not want to leave open. Yeah, and I think neither of them make the team next year, but they'll probably get a chance to. One of the rationales I've heard for why we don't see more is that they're a waste of time, that you're going to spend all this work and can get sign off on this money, and then you're still not going to get the player. And that, in my opinion, is how this is going to go for Philadelphia. But Corey, was it worthwhile for them still?

I mean, it's one of the, you're taking a shot. I mean, it's one of the best young players in the league, and you're at least giving yourself a chance to get him. Absolutely. It was worth it. I mean, for how long have we been talking about Philly? and their center issues and how they don't have a star number one center and Nesbitt's a second or third liner,

and Luchenko is and Bergen is, and where are they going to get the center unless they bottom out? It's like, oh, they're like, okay, well, how about this avenue? Let's try and let's try and get it this way. And I think it's perfectly reasonable. And I think I was saw, I think it was Elliot Frevin who says he was talking to people in the league who said, like Breer better watch his back now or something like that,

which I think is ridiculous. Like, it's just, it's like what you say, it's like what you see, You're like the unwritten rules and baseball at all that crap. Like, you play to win the game. Everyone's trying to win. Offer sheet is coming.

I just, people are so stupid. Yeah, it's, it's business. That's the thing is like, it's business and nobody seems to take things more personally in business than in the NHL.

I mean, I know it happens in other leagues and everything, but you look at the way that player movement works in other leagues and why, like, it just, it's entitlement. Like, you're,

like, And this is something that goes back decades where like managers and owners feel like they're entitled to players. And it's like the, and only when they get to understricted free agency, do they lose that right for it to be their player? Like, it's a rule. Yeah, and here's the other thing. Look at what is happening with players right now.

They are fighting back in a way that has never been seen in the NHL and I love it because this is actually happening across the board and across the levels. there is a reckoning happening where players are finally not just taking it as they had for years and years and years. There are players that have always tried to dictate their moves, whether it's going to junior hockey or where they commit to college or all those different things. And now they're put in a system where that opportunity is taken away. Those players are now taking that back. Get ready for it. I also saw something about like maybe Leo doesn't even want to be in Anaheim.

I was like, who doesn't sign an 18 million? million dollar contract. I could assure the athletic if someone comes and offers me whatever, $10 million more a year than I'm making right now, I will be going there. Sorry, it's not an insult. You just heard it. Corey makes $8 million. No.

I said $10 million more than what I make right now. All right. Stephen A. Prondman on the on the sales. Also, I hope, just like how like players are sticking it to the teams, I hope. team stick at the players too. You got to do it. Yeah,

for your team. Like, like, like you saw, like everyone got up in ours or eyes of it. It's like, oh, I'm not going to trade Larkin unless, you know,

I, you know, unless I feel right for the Red Wings. That says, this is right. If doesn't get a good deal, tell them, I'll see you September 15th.

Like, I don't, you got to do what's, you know, it's like I said, it's just business. And you got to do what's in your best interest. Yeah.

All right. We're going to take a quick break right there. We'll come back with the 2027 draft ranking. You're back. All right, we are back. And Corey, on Monday, you had a

2027 mock draft go out. I mentioned it off the top. It's really more of a rank. We don't know how these teams are going to finish. But it's a good window into the 27 draft class. And we talked enough about it that I think people know the biggest name in the class is Landon Dupont.

But I want to know, is this a number one with a bullet situation for Landon DuPont? Or is it going to be kind of similar to where it ended up in 2026, where we kind of have a group of names at the top. How does it kind of stack up in that way? He is number one, and I don't think it's like number one, and he's tied with number two. I think he is the first, he isn't a best prospect right now in next year's draft. And, you know, he's just a tremendous skater, tremendous puck mover, competitive player, has been, you know, just a, you know, a really elite

producing defenseman in junior hockey. But it's not number one with a bullet, that's for sure. I think there's two players right behind him, the center, Alexi Joseph, who plays in the Q in St. John and Nazar Perivolov, the big power winger from the Red Army over in Russia, that are within striking distance of him. And I think those three are the clear top tier for next year's draft. I think all three of those guys would have either been in the conversation with Gavin McKenna and I, R. Stenberg, at the top of this drafter. I think Joseph and Dupon definitely could have gone over them just because of the premium

positions. I think people would have been scared of the Russian winger and may have preferred McKenner, Stenberg in those scenarios. But like those are like, you know, DuPont could be a number one defenseman. Joseph could be a number one center. Like those are, you know, and he's six four, six five as well. Like those are premium premium NHL prospects. And things could change, obviously. Like I think there's some other good forward prospects particularly. I don't think, but I think there's a distinction now between those three and the rest of the group. I do think Joseph's U18 worlds. It was only two games, but I do think his U-18 worlds did, well, I know it gave some evaluators paused.

Like, he was obviously demoted out of Canada's lineup after starting in their top six through the first two games and never made his way back into Canada's lineup. And there were some players on that team that didn't get picked in this year's draft that were playing ahead of Alexei Joseph. And they were really down on him coming out of those two games. And again, just two games. But I think there was a lot of criticism of him not moving his feet, not being involved, a lot of gliding around a lot of watching the play. He's going to have to just dominate and sort of quickly put some of those maybe minor questions that popped up at U-18s to bed and be one of the very best players in the queue

all year next year. And I expected the Hulink is he's going to do that. Like I was just watching his U-17 challenge again this past weekend. Like, oh, my God, was he so good? Like, he's a real special talent. I don't know if the offense is going to be elite, elite. Like, he might be closer. there were some people

there were some scouts I was talking to the U-17s after that was over who were comparing him to Malkin and he's not Malkin but I think like you know he's maybe he's like

more like by field who was second overall like that's I think there's like some rhymes there with the athleticism and like the good but maybe not special brain like you know it's

you know good size interior doesn't skate like by field I think he makes more plays than Byfield does though yes I would say that's true So, there's ever a perfect call, but like somewhere on that spectrum, I think. That's kind of where I think he lands.

Like, right now, I would have DuPont and Privolve, like, a cut above. Like, I think I'd have them in a separate tier than Joseph. I just watched Privile all play a couple of times at the Milstein camp. I don't think he makes, like, a ton of plays either, to be perfectly honest. The thing that expects me about him is that he kills everybody. Yes. And he's six, four, and he can skate, and he's got offense. but I think there is some minor questions there

are how he lead his offense is going to be too. But the bigger question there, of Corey, is now the contract, right? Like, it's, there's the play style, and then there's the reality that he just signed a long-term extension. Is it four years with Cisco? Yeah, four years.

And then Yakunan, who's also a mid-first-range guy, signed five years with Spartak. There's a lot of pressure now because of this new, you know, from these top Russian players to take the bag of money and sign a long-term over there.

Obviously, we saw it with the Montfei-Mischov situation, that there is a way to get out of the contract if it's mutual. But if the team really likes the player, it may not be so mutual. I think Scott was willing to let Mitchcov go. I don't know if CSK will be so willing to let Pryvolve out of this so early.

And waiting two years is not that big a concern. Four years is tough. Well, it would be three years post-contract after he gets drafted. It's not unreasonable amount. I feel like if you feel like there's a drop, but it might if it's between him and joseph i think that's definitely a variable big time yeah there's zero chance he goes first overall i think you know with contract he'd have to have like one of the best seasons ever to go even overall even then the mess that especially with the nuts that the nuts

that take a guy like that and you're you were so bad and you went for the overall pick and you're like we'll see this guy in maybe three years yeah it's just he can't you can't do it i think Landon, regardless of where everybody ends up on Landon as a player too, just Landon being Landon is going to have a similar impact to Gavin being Gavin for teams, especially if you're a Canadian team. He's going to play at Michigan. They're going to go likely to the Frozen Four again or on a deep sort of conference run. He's going to have, he might not have glossy, glossy, glossy, sexy sort of point totals,

but even if he has a really good year and he plays on Canada's blue line at the World Juniors and they win a gold medal, like there's just going to be a lot of attention on Landon, and I think that will make it, even taking the player out of it, it will make it hard on teams to not prioritize him. Because Canada has Czechia this year, I think that'd be impressive. Yeah, they got to win some games first,

but, uh, yeah, no, it's, it's just, I think who Landon is is going to be a part of it. Big time, yeah, that's the pressure. The pressure that comes with, with, with the selection is that, you know, he's the guy that everybody's, heard about for years. He's, you know, the way that the news cycle works now is all of these guys are game changers. They're going to change the face of the franchise and, and all that stuff. And in the truth is, is that, you know, some of them will, not all of them will. And I think, like,

we've got a long way to go. Like, I would have, I wouldn't have thought that there was a lot of, you know, opportunity to catch Gavin last year at this time. I still thought that he was certainly, you know, flawed enough where there could be, you know, some challengers. and we knew about Stenberg and we knew about those other guys. I just, I, you know, I haven't seen enough from anybody to really challenge him at this point. You know, he gives me the most comfort. The thing that I kind of look at, though, too, and I'm sure we'll talk about it a bit more, is as deep as last year's draft was on defensemen, this one comes with a lot of concern about what the D class looks like as far as I can tell.

Even though we've got the potential number one guy, it thins out. pretty quickly after that. It's a great point, Corey, because number one on your list is DuPont. There's not another defenseman until number 14 here. And we could have some reasonable debates about whether Douglas Yonston

could have been a little bit higher, whether Brock Cripps can be a little higher. Crips is, I mean, he's dynamic. Crips is phenomenal. Yeah, like he's got, like he does have some Hudson vibes to him the way he plays kind of thing, both the both Hudson brothers.

Well, not both, but Cole and Lane, that is, you know, talking about the defenseman. Like, he's got some high in offensive traits. he's just, but Yonson's skates a little bit better and also has a lot of offense, so I leaned there. But, yeah, I would say, unless I'm missing somebody obvious, and you guys can help me, maybe it's Diego Gutierrez or something like, or like, there's no, like, six, four mobile puck mover

in this draft that, like, we're like, oh, my God, he has got all the tools. And I haven't seen that player yet among the defensemen, which kind of leads you to, like, these three puck movers, these three offensive guys. And then, you know, Crips is 511, not an elite skater. Johnson's 511, 6.0, good, not, you know, pretty good skater. Like, those are not typically top five, top 10 picks. DuPont is 511, but he's an elite skater. So those are the distinctions there.

Yeah, I mean, this definitely seems like, but there's a lot of really good centers and centers with size and skating and an offense, like that seems to be much more what makes up the premium names in next year's draft class. I have had some people

in the W.H.L. named Boston Tate as sort of a potential riser in this class, like the kind of guy who could be a top 10, top 15 pick, but the offense,

we're gonna have to see the offense there. He's big and he can skate and he's physical and he's competitive. Is he even that big? He's like 6-1, 6-2. I think he's good. I think he's like over 6-2.

I believe he's over 6-2 now. Okay. I watch him. He's good. Again, you can make a pass. He's a good skater. You know, compete well enough. Like, nothing wrong with him.

But to get him to like top 10, that seems aggressive from what I've seen so far. But obviously, this is recording this July, 2026. A lot of us had Caleb Malhotra top three a year ago. A lot can change. Can and will. White Cohen. Yes. And we expect changes.

But it's a good starting point to know kind of what the shape of this class looks like. And to core, to your point, a lot of centers and wingers. All right, let's take a break right there. We've even done a mailbag in a long time. So we've got a lot to get to there. All right, we're back. We've got a mailbag here. Starting from Pet 75-2-10, Corey, what prospects drafted in the third round or later from the 2025 draft have really raised their stock in the last year?

I think the first name that comes to mind is Tampa's prospect Ben Routianan, who was the clear leading score in Liga. last year. Now he did as a 20-year-old, but just the year he had was insane. And you're looking at a guy who was a good skater who showed just a tremendous level of offense. And you think like fourth round pick who has a real chance to play for Tampa in the near future, especially given how little depth they have in their system. Like this is a guy who I think is going to get a real opportunity to play for them. Like that's the one. I think obviously Bryce Pickford had a really good year in the Western League. I think you're a little worried, given

the quality of Western League, how's it going to translate up levels, but he still looks like he's a, you know, pretty strong prospect guy who has a maybe, instead of going to the third round, he goes in the second round, if you redo that draft. Routian and maybe goes, the fourth round he goes, top 50, top 60, like, I think

that's kind of the range of thinking of. Another Montreal prospect, we haven't really talked about, Alexi Cornel. He had a really good year on Cornell last year. He was one of the best goalies in college hockey just transferred to Wisconsin from Cornell, fifth round pick. That was a guy who had a really promising season. And then obviously, Ethan Wittenback, the Calgary prospect from Quinn to PX,

7th, 6th, 7th round pick, one of the, you know, he was a Hobie candidate. Those are the main ones, any ones that I didn't mention guys that you're passionate about? I would probably, the USHL was what it was last year, but I would probably throw Cooper Simpson in there. Like Cooper was, Cooper lit up the USHL, and he's now. been invited to the World Junior Summer Showcase with USA Hockey. And I think he's got a chance to score in college. And he's 6-2, 6-2 and a half and has a legit NHL shot and can score and prove he could

score it in a junior league that where typically is, which typically is lower scoring. So I'd add him to that. Routianin's the one, though. Like, he's got legit, like, in a phone booth hands to, like, one-on-one skill is real there. Like, I think he's got a chance as a fourth round. pick to potentially even like point and play on a second line and play on a power play in the NHL if all goes well. And like he's going to come over and score right away in the AHL.

Like I have no worries about him producing in the HL. And then it's just, okay, is he a quad A guy or is this is the skill level legit NHL skill? I mean, Wittenbach and Pickford, we'll see, but Routian. And he was an overager too. Yeah, yeah, he was third year eligible. Yeah, he went to Leafs Development Camp and, And it sort of lingered around for a while. Yeah.

I have some mild reservation because league of quality has been down the last five-so years. So lighting up that league is not, if it was a good year, you're like, eh, whatever, but he was like, it was the clear-dust player. It was an unreal year. Yeah. Yeah. So it's a different level of impressive. A couple other, like, minor ones, I'd probably throw out of a hot number of mention to Nathan Beam, Chicago pick, third rounder. He had a, he was a top score in the Western League, you know, 6-2, he can skate.

he's got offense. We've worked a little bit harder than he did in his draft year. And one of my favorite names in that draft class, Monz Goose, he had a good year in Sweden, I think fifth round pick by Dallas. He's a goalie who looks like he's got a chance to play in the NHL. All right. Scott, Latson 44 says, would it be fair to say that Keaton,

that if Keaton Verhoff had stayed in the Western Hockey League and dominated like he did in his draft minus one, that he would have been ranked and perhaps drafted higher than he was? Yeah, I always wonder with these questions immediately. after the draft weather lost in 44 is a San Jose Sharks fan by chance. But no, it's yes. I mean, the answer is probably yes. Would guys have gone higher had they stayed in junior?

I think that's probably true of potentially even Tynne and Lawrence. Like I had guys who said if Tynne and Lawrence had gone to the queue, which was available to him, that he would have been a, he would have gone even higher than 11. And you can go down the list. It's easier to hide some of the warts. I do still think that people, people would have still come on strong for Carson Carls and for Chase Reed and

Jackson Rudolph, would he have necessarily pointed like those guys? Probably. Would Victoria have been a top team had him in Colreshney stayed? Of course they would have been. But I don't know. I think there's a lot of hypotheticals at play in that. And frankly, it doesn't matter. Like it truly does not matter where you go. They were all high picks. They're all going to be prioritized by their NHL clubs. They're all going to be put in positions to succeed when they're done in junior or done in college and turn pro. He's still going to be put in that position.

He's probably better off, frankly, for having tested himself at North Dakota. And now he's going to be more prepared for North Dakota this year. And I don't know. The questions of the what ifs with the draft, I don't think really matter in the grand scheme of things. he was still a top 10 pick at the draft, whether he goes three or seven, eight, nine, I don't think really matters. Yeah, I would agree with that. And the other thing that I think Corey said a few episodes ago when we're getting ready for the draft is that the information that we got on these players is better. Yeah, that's the big difference is that a lot of some of the hockey sense things

that we saw with Keaton Verhoff wouldn't have been as exposed, I feel like it, Jr., especially in some of his reads and different things like that, because the pace of play was different. And so I do think that because our data is better on the players and our views are probably more meaningful, then we're slotting these players into better places. So I think, you know, the hypothetical, would he have gone higher? Like, yeah, would you have had 70 to 80 points in the league? And that would have changed probably his draft slotting and the way we view him. But I think that because he played in college, we had better analysis of, of the player, saw the flaws for what they were and the same is Drew of Gavin McKenna and a bunch of other guys.

And he had better analysis of himself. Agreed. And like the thing is, is what is better for the player long term? You know, what like is going ninth overall better or was staying in the dub going third overall and then then going to North Dakota, then probably having to spend another two years. Like there's a lot of different. And he doesn't lose any money, whether he goes nine or three. Exactly. He might lose some money if he goes 90 versus three.

but right right but yeah the you're he's still a priority guy for san jose they're going to create opportunities for him whether he goes three five nine 11 yeah yeah uh chris austin bolt wants to know if we're seeing a changing of the guard in the western conference with the rise of anaheim san jose and utah obviously the leo carlson situation a big part of this discussion but it is interesting because you look around at like the dallas and minnesota rosters and they're still really good but and i don't think San Jose in particular is quite ready to knock on that door. But it is interesting that some of these young rising teams are really making a push now. Yeah, I guess my only question is, who is the guard?

How many Stanley Cups have we seen one out of the Western Conference League? Vegas and Colorado are the only real two in the last seven years, I think. Exactly, yeah. So I think to that point, like, no, like Vegas and Colorado will still probably be the standard bearers of the conference. and that, you know, San Jose still has a lot of building to do. And Anaheim now is in a in a flux situation with, with their, their situation as it is right now. So like you've got Edmonton, obviously, has been among those in that group.

I think they're really in tough to stay in that group. Obviously, always having Connor McDavid and Leon Drysidal keeps you in that range. But I think the clock is very much ticking. And are they any better as collectively? I would say nope. You know, so like I think that that's another kind of factor there. But we're not there yet, but we're on the way. And I do think that San Jose is built in a way that is reminiscent of the way that a lot of

eventually successful baseball teams have been built in terms of like the way that they have stockpiled their picks, but also taken advantage of getting some of those like generational players, you know, having having gotten Macklin Selle's. Libriene is a cheat code for a rebuild. But yeah, we're still a ways away from the full changing of the guard. Now, Anaheim, will it change, how much it changes, you know, is really challenged at this point. I think some of what expansion has revealed to the league, too, is that everybody has flaws now. Like, it is hard to be a juggernaut in the league.

It's hard to have 12 legit forward, six legit D, two legit goalways. And it's only going to get harder to build. Carolina was a juggernaut, I thought. Yeah, yeah, but it's only going. Yeah, but when you look around the league, like how many teams were just mediocre last year? Like, how many teams, how many teams did you feel confident could contend with a Carolina last year, right?

Like, there's just, the league feels like. Just Colorado probably. Yeah. It's just, and it's going to get worse. We're going to 33 teams here shortly, and then we're inevitably going to 34. And I know people don't like to hear that,

but that's coming here. So the league is going to get watered down further here. And as a result, stars are going to get paid more. And some of these trends that we're seeing are only going to continue to scale up. But it's going to be hard to build a top to bottom team that a coach feels really comfortable with. Even Carolina, like whether it was goalie, whether it was and having to go kind of with an unproven second line center in Logan Stankman, although his playoff pedigree was. But I don't know that when you were drawing this up that you're saying like this 22 year old, you know,

5-9 center is going to be like our winning. piece going into a season, you know, and he was a really promising player. But it goes changed. Key Andre Miller, things changed there too. I think these are now both guys that are going to be in national team conversations. Totally. Totally. All right.

Next question here, Corey, from beep, boop, bop, wants to know if we think that we've nitpicked Gavin McKenna's name too much this year. Clip that, please. Well, beep boopopopop. I guess, well, this is where I, we'll talk about everybody else that says to me, I guess, but, you know, I said he's the most skilled player in the draft. Does anybody disagree with that? No.

Nope. Smartest player in the draft? Does anybody disagree with that? Nope. Okay. Okay, so he's the critic. Anyway, anyways. Okay.

I think he's a pretty, he's good, but probably not elite skater. Anybody disagree? Anyone disagree with that? Nope. Nope. Okay. I think his compete was average fine, not like an asset, not like the laziest player I've ever seen in my life, though.

Like, he's an average competitor. Yep. I was probably a little harsher. I think it's below average for a star caliber player, but... Okay, so Scott doesn't like his compete, and Chris thinks he's not as smart as I do, but somehow... Chris said second smartest, but I get your point. But, I mean, I think for us, like,

I don't think we really had fundamental disagreements on the assessment. I think maybe the minor on, like, the exact level of the offense, And then the real debate just came down to how does his profile, how valuable is it compared to Stenberg, compared to Mahautra, compared to Chase Reed, compared to Albert Smiths. Like that was more the debate, not that we didn't see that Gavin McKenna was a game-breaking winger who did not have tremendous off-puck habit,

who had off-puck issues and was not like a tremendous athlete. Like I feel like we were all pretty unanimous on that. And I don't think there's a lot of push-upist. back on that around the league and around even like people who've watched this anyone who's watched this guy regularly. It's just is it, I feel like the debate was just more is it 80, 90 point offense

or 120 point offense. That's really what the debate came down to. Am I misremembering anything here guys? And I think that that debate on that profile, that's something we've seen recur over multiple draft cycles. I mean we've had, Connor Bedard has played center's entire NHL career, but we had similar conversations

about him. We certainly had similar conversations about Mavei Mitchcove. And I think McKenna's a level higher, there's less uncertainty. But this is a, this is a recurring thing, Chris. Yeah, it's a recurring thing. And to answer beep boop's question directly, the answer is no. This is what you do. This is how you do the job to make the best the best assentiment. And I think that what we all agree on with Gavin McKenna is that we believe he's going to be a top line producer in the NHL. If you can nitpick that further, the thing is that is that is he, like if he went to a team where he wasn't going to be

the number one guy on the roster right away like he you know, if he was going to be the number one roster, I would have more concern about that because he's going to a roster where he's insulated. I was like he's he's definitely a great complimentary player. Now we're going to have to find out if he can be the legitimate, you know, driver of a team. And we may not have to figure that out in Toronto like we would have in other places. For me, the debate is always, is he, is he,

Kuturov or is he Panarin? That was the debate for me. It wasn't like, is he not like an awesome player? I think I tend to disagree with Chris on the absolute no of this question though. Like, we've still given him the most attention. We've been extremely critical of him over the course of the season in a way that we weren't for the shiny new toy and Caleb Malholtra or Chase Reed or Wyatt Cullen or whoever popped it. Like, I do think there is something to These guys who've been on the scene for a year or two longer, instead of two years pre-draft of us watching them, sometimes there's three or in Gavin's case, even four years pre-draft of watching them. I do think there is a, maybe not a trend, but I do think we can fall into the bad habit of like being too hard on the kid that we've seen over and over and over and over again.

But to our earlier point, that also gives you, it gives you more data, like on Keaton, it gives you more data. We have, the reality is we have seen Gavin play more than we've seen Wyatt Cullen play or kill of Mel Holtra play. So there is naturally going to be more opportunity for us to find flaws in his game. And I think in many cases, people actually end up on the right side of that. I think they ended up on the right side of it with Shane Wright. I think they ended up on the right side of it with nitpicking Brad Lambert. Like there have been guys that were on the scene for that extra year who after all of the nitpicking, well, maybe they were flawed. Maybe they did have issues in their game.

So, but I do think that it's, it is true. Like to the, to the question at least, it is true that we, we spend more time nitpicking the guys that we've been watching for longer. Like, I think that's a natural. Right. But I would say that's the one you can't get wrong, though. Like, like, we nitpicked it to the point and still ended up with him at number one. Oh, Corey didn't, but. Yeah.

Well, some of us. The show did. The show did. The show consensus. Yeah. I do think as well, there's like a human. nature part of it where like if you're told you know we focus on 16 and 17 year olds with the most part 17 18 year olds if you're told there's there's like there's 14 or there's 15 year old wonder boy and then he finally gets to the level where you're starting to evaluate him there's like

okay like let's see what you got hot shot at element to it a little bit like and yeah you have to control your biases in that car you got you got to evaluate everyone the exact same way and I think I try to do that anyways, but there is definitely, you know, when you're told that Shane Wright is like some wonder, you know, prospect and you're like, keep watching me. You're like, I haven't seen him actually make a play all game. Like, there's, like, you get a little, you could be a little overcritical at times, too. For sure. The reality is also that Gavin didn't have a good start to the year. No, like that, that produced, that produced what followed.

I will say there. Like, Connor Bedard just put it to that. Where does he go? Connor, we did the hypothetical on where's Verhof go if he goes to draft month. What happens to McKenna if he gets injured in mid-November doesn't play another game? It's a different conversation. Evar Stenberg, come on down. Yeah, no, it is.

Yeah, that's a good. That's, yeah, and I think that that's a really interesting way to put it. I will say one guy that we nitpicked ended up on the wrong side of, not everybody, but like, certainly myself and I think others, Porta Martone. He was a guy that came into that year. the guy that we all thought would go number two and ended up going later. And not that much later. Not what's six, right? I mean,

Brady Martin was drafted in front of him. Yeah. That's the egregious one. Yeah. But like, I don't know, I think Mesa's still awesome. Frontell's really impressive.

Yeah, I mean, I would still take Martone over both of them at this point. Yes. So I'd have to go one thing. Look, I actually think our show list, I think Martone ended up being a compromise

Canada ended up in our top three or four. I'll have to go back and look at that. I believe it was me who argued for that one. Yeah, you did. Yeah, because I remember arguing against it because I didn't see it on the Hockey sense side. And sure enough, he goes to college. And it wasn't exposed. It was in fact, oh, he's actually quite good at that.

He's only played like 20 NHL games. I'm not saying, yeah, we shouldn't take a victory lap or anything. But I do think that that was a player, given the fact that he had had the draft minus one that everybody kind of saw, had the grade under 18 worlds. And then boom, here he is in college. He's, you know, or then he in Mississauga. Then he goes, you know, all those different things. Also great at that U-18 Worlds.

Gavin McKenna. Yeah, one of the best. Yeah. That's hockey. I've seen him play was at that U-18 Worlds. I thought. Yeah, it turns of just, it turns of it's like game-to-game dominance. Yeah.

I don't know. The 8.8.9 or whatever it was, it was, it's Ohio State. That's, uh, that was pretty good, but yeah. Yeah, that one was interesting. All right, Scott. washed athlete says, what scared some teams off of Mathis Preston?

Seems like he fell farther than most thought. Well, I think when you're a five, and we talk about this over and over and over again, but when you're a 510, 511 winger, you have to produce. And everybody was excited about Mathis coming out of last year and coming into this year because he produced.

And if you go back and you look at some of the consensus lists and some of the early lists early on, Mathis was viewed as a potential top 15, top 16, like front half of the first round. candidate and then he didn't produce in Spokane and then he got traded and he got hurt and I think the injury played a role in it and he he was very very good that very first weekend before he got hurt in Vancouver it he was it looked like a different player than the one that that people had seen in Spokane and I know Spokane things didn't go well for him there and I think they may

might have beat up on him when people made calls to Spokane to uh to to ask about Mathis they they weren't thrilled with him leaving the way that he did and with the way that he played in the front half. And so I think there were all sorts of little things that sort of piled up against Mathis, but ultimately you've got to produce to go high at that size. And we saw guys who did that go high. Like this draft class, J.P. Herbert did it. And he went high. And Nikita Klepov did it. And he went high. And had he had the 90 to 95 point season that those players had, he would have been a first round pick, but he didn't. And so he's a second round pick. I still think with Matt and, And Corey and I think differ on Mathis.

I still think with the way he skates and the skill level that he's got a chance to look like a first round pick eventually. But he didn't necessarily look like one this year. And there were issues with his competitiveness and the way he came and went in games and perimeter play. And those are just things that when they pile up on a 5-11 guy, it's just hard for a team to tell their general manager. This is the guy at pick 25 or whatever that we have to go to bat for. It's a lot easier to go to bat for them if they have the kind of season that a Hurlbird or, a Kepov had, right? I went out to spoke there in the fall

to go watch him a couple of times, and I just kept thinking he reminds me so much of Fabian Leasel. Like, the skating and the skill are awesome. He just doesn't see it very well. He doesn't get to the inside consistently enough. Like, there's, it's first round tools. That's why I am as a first rounder.

We all am as a first rounder coming into the fall, but like, I think there was like one play of the U-18s, that was just hilarious. I think he had like a 2-0, and he shot it into the goalie's chest. And it's just like stuff. like that where it's just like he his decision making his vision can be like really poor sometimes all right uh last one corey hockey bear nineteen ninety wants to know where the leifes rank now in

prospect rankings i know you're going through this process right now on your u23 stuff i'd say upper half of the league i don't know the exact spot but like if people i remember i had some comments because i gave the leaps an a plus grade on their draft and they were like i thought you had mckenna fourth and It's like, yeah, but I said it was a tie, and I meant it. Like, he's an awesome prospect, and he fundamentally changes their farm system. On top of the fact, I actually liked a lot of the other, I thought they had arguably the best day two of any team at the draft a few weeks ago. But I think with McKenna, and now you add that, you know, that, you know, good day two group and you have Easton Cow in there now, too, Ben Danfords, you know, I don't love those two guys, but they're legit NHL prospects. I think this is a good farm system.

I think it's a great or extremely deep farm system. But with McKinna at the top and you got some decent depth, like that's an above average farm system. All right. Before we wrap today, Chris, you are wearing a Chicago White Sox hat on your head. I am. That's true.

Who would you say is your Mount Rushmore of Chicago White Sox baseball players? Oh, wow. Put me on the spot here. The Mount Rushmore, I have a personal Mount Rushmore. Hit me with it. Um, so my personal Mount Rushmore, and this is all guys that played while I was alive, uh, was Frank Thomas, Paul Canerco, Mark Burley. And I'm, I'm debating between Carlton Fisk and Ozzie Gehan, but because Ozzie then managed after playing for so many years, I'm going to go Ozzy Gean. So that's my personal Mount Rushmore. You can talk about other guys that were on there. You know, if you want to go back to the Nelly Fox era, if you want to go to Luke Appling and Louis Apparicio, if you want to go to Shulis Joe, you want to go to Shulish Joe. Jackson totally understand that's my Mount Rushmore of guys

I got to see when I was alive. Got my tickets for July 27th. I had had, you know what? The most offensive thing that's ever been said to me on social media, Max? Yeah. Somebody in the comments said

that I just started wearing the white socks hat now that they're good this season. And buddy, let me tell you, nothing has offended me more than that. I grew, born and raised on the southwest side of Chicago. I think I was born with a hot dog, no ketchup on it in my mouth. All right.

So let's let's get a let's get it. Let's show a little respect for the fandom there. Well, I like that list. You suffered through the 40 win season. I did. Or whatever it was. And I will also say doing this job, doing a prospect job, it has been years since the White Sox have been relevant when I was able to actually

start watching them again. And unfortunately, they're not on a platform that I can watch them as easily anymore. So I am, this is the worst, this is the worst offseason I could have imagined. Well, I liked especially the first name you said on that Mount Rushmore, because while we were at the draft last week, Scott and I were walking into our hotel. And they had a silent auction going at the hotel. And one of the items just actually arrived at my house. Are you kidding me? To let people know, we were not at the draft.

We were in Chicago reporting for the draft. so just keep that up by. Yeah. One of the best things that's ever happened. I was the only bid on the signed Frank Thomas jersey that will now be owned by one Chris Peters. No way. Oh, my God. Oh, man.

See, yeah, the big hurt. I mean, that was like right in my wheelhouse. It was 10 years old when he was winning MVP. He's like, oh, man. We had walked past it a few times. And we were just like, we got to get. We had just wrapped up the coverage. We'd had a couple of.

adult beverages and Macs scrolled by and the page was still empty with bids and he said I have to put one down and if we get it at this dollar it belongs to Chris Peters and serve in my house a week later. I will I will Venmo you because no no no that is no no no no no that is incredible like I said we got it for the minimum bid here so we got a deal what was the minimum that of curiosity we'll keep that to ourselves yeah I'm very comfortable see this is this is the life of a White Sox fan. I bet you if it was if it was like an Anthony Rizzo jersey, you would have never gotten that.

Because we are the unloved, you got it. Thank you. This is the funny thing is that the reason that it became a bit for Scott and I at our hotel is that it was up against a Ben Zobras jersey and the Ben Zobrist jersey had bids and the Frank Thomas did it. That is ridiculous. That is more offensive. If you were on the 2016 cup, like Frank Thomas

technically was on the 2005 White Sox, he is a world series champion. Did Zobras win with the Cubs that year? Yeah, he did, he did. So if you win a, if you won a World Series with the Cubs, I get it. But we were waiting for 86 years for that World Series. That's still the greatest sporting thing that is ever. Like, you know, obviously all these championships, like I was two years old and the Bears won the Super Bowl.

The White Sox winning the World Series 2005. That's my number one sports moment ever. And I was by myself in a fraternity house in Iowa State. only White Sox fan anywhere within 20 miles. And I made it back for the parade at least. So true, boo. So if you ever question my fandom again, I'm going to wear that Frank Tom Stewart.

That's going to frame in my house. That's where that's going. Thank you, Max. You guys are the best. Best podcast going today. Wow. What a group. All right.

That's going to do it for us. Thanks for this in this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect series. Remember you can catch more of Scott and Corey's work on Theathletic.com. And more of Chris over at Flow hockey and on his podcast called up. We'll talk to you soon. Thank you.