The Athletic Hockey Show - Will Matthew Schaefer go first overall at the NHL Draft?

Episode Date: May 9, 2025

On today’s Prospect Series episode of The Athletic Hockey Show, Max, Corey, and Scott talk about what makes Matthew Schaefer the presumptive No. 1 pick in this year’s NHL Draft, why James Hagens has fallen out of that conversation, and the guys answer listener questions in the return of the mailbag to close the show. Hosts: Max Bultman and Corey PronmanWith: Scott WheelerExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside the athletic Scott Wheeler and Corey Pranman for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. We've got a draft order, fellas, and that means it's time to start really digging in. I want to start at the very top of this, Corey. And when we started this draft cycle, we had one name who was kind of the pole position at the top. Now we have another name. That name is Matthew Schaefer, the defenseman from Erie in the OHL. You had a piece this week asking NHL scouts to rank Schaefer relative to past first round picks the last nine.

And he comes in right in the middle of the pack. So let's just start here. What makes Matthew Schaefer the leading candidate at first overall? Right. It was the first round picks. It was the first overall picks. Pardon. Last nine years.

Well, important distinction. Big difference. And yeah, you know, he's an excellent player. I think he's a guy who, despite being. I think only a couple of weeks away from being eligible for the 2020s draft just really dominated every level he played at when he was playing this year. He was the best player at the Linkagresky Cup. He was really good in the OHL when he was healthy.

He was arguably the best player at the CHL NTDP series and in the two games they played in November. He was arguably Canada's best player at the World Juniors before he got hurt midway through the second game against Latvia. Six-two defensemen with dynamic skating ability. I think they he looked, he showed offense when he was a 16 year old in the OHL. But I think that offensive touch and playmaking even took steps this season from where he was in previous years. We'll go with a highly competitive all around game.

What he showed this year looks like a guy who has potential to be a legit number one defense in the NHL. You think of Jake Sanderson. You think of Miro Haskinen if he, on the high side. you know, those are that, that's the kind of player. He looked like this season. And you keep hearing me say when he was playing because that was the big issue. The only real issue, frankly, with Schaefer this year is he didn't really play much hockey. Yeah, only 17 games for Erie in the OHL this year, Scott for Schaefer.

But he does make team Canada. Like, he's clearly for the world juniors. You know, he was excellent at the Holinka Gretzky. Like, he has in limited times still put a lot of important things on tape. Yeah, and you start to add it up. It's over sort of 10 to 15 games. Like it's on top of the OHL, he played two games in London and Oshawa. He played a few games in pre-tournament with Hockey Canada.

He played U-Sports twice with Hockey Canada and was excellent in those two games. I thought in Oshua and London for the CHL USA Prospects challenge that he wasn't just the best player there, but that he was leaps and bounds in those two games, the most impressive player on the ice. on the ice, it should be noted, with Michael Mesa, who was also very good in those two games, but just didn't stand out to the degree that Schaefer did. And then obviously, the Halinka sort of really got the ball rolling. He didn't, despite having shown some of these elements a year ago, he didn't pop offensively as a 16-year-old.

I think he only had like 17 points in 57 games. The true, true top deep prospects that have come through junior hockey in the last decade are typically about twice as productive as that. I mean, Zane Porek's an entirely different conversation, but Zane Perek had, forget 17 points, he had 21 goals as a 16 year old. So there were some questions, I think, entering into Hulinka about how much offense does Matthew Schaefer have. Is he a PP1 guy? Is he a dynamic offensive talent beyond the skating? And that's where I think he checked a lot of boxes with emphasis when he was on the ice this year.

He was going to run Canada's first power play at the World Juniors ahead of Sam Dickinson, ahead of Zane. Perek who didn't even make that team. A head of Tanner Mollondyke, who was a returnee, you go down the list, he was he was pegged for that role and he'd made some end-to-end plays with the eriottors. He'd shown a ton of skill. So a lot to like about what we did see from Schaefer. I think the big thing in terms of the selling point of first overall for Schaefer is the skating.

It is not just high end. Like it's elite. The way he gets up and down the ice, the speed with which he can sort of join and activate and carry pucks, it's extremely, extremely impressive, even catching guys on the back check and that kind of a thing. Still don't think he has that sort of dynamic element that Azane Perret does or that Aziv Boyam does in terms of breaking guys down. But the offense, the offense was there this year and there quite impressively. So I think that on top of the smarts and the skating and the fact that he's 6162, that's what really, I think, sold a lot of people

myself included that he was the top guy. And, you know, what he was playing, he's on the office there, like I think seven goals, 22 points, whatever it was in a 17 games, makes a lot of play look really dynamic. But I think even talking to, I think most scouts in the NHL are really big fans of him, think he has power play one potential, think he has offense.

But there are some in the league who have at least some reservations on exactly how much offense. Is he a true power play one? Is it a power play two, for example? And the reason why we don't have really, you know, A good answer to that question is because he didn't play the games. If he would have played 40 more games and had 70 points, whatever, in the OHL this year, then it wouldn't really be a debate.

But guys go get hot, guys get cold. You mentioned you were talking about Porek several times. He was cold at the start of the year, quite frankly, as an 18-year-old in the OHL, then he caught on fire in the second half. The same could have happened or the opposite could have happened. When you lack data, you have less certainty. in the evaluation. And that's like, I could absolutely see a scenario where Schaefer is not a premier offensive

player in the NHL. I think he is going to have offense based on what he showed us over the last 12 months. But I can't say, like, I say it with conviction. And it's why, like, I think the Islanders are going to call that name. I think they should call that name. Despite how much I like Michael Mesa, I would say Matt Schaefer is the only guy I saw this year who made me say wow, who truly blew me away

and made a true, like impacted the game, took over a game. I've never seen Michael Misa do that in the way Schaefer did. But I wouldn't be stunned if they didn't call Schaefer's name just because the other guy you saw play 80 games this year. Worth noting too, in

all evaluations about Schaefer, that he's one of the younger players in this draft class. So to do what he was doing as a September birthday in this age group sort of adds to the pile without, even without the data sort of adds to the pile that there's more to come. Corey, I think what you just talked about, that's why the Jake Sanderson comp is so important, because he's another player who there was questions in his draft year, like, what is the

ultimate offense in the NHL? He ends up going five, but in a redraft, he's going two, three at the latest, and that was in a stronger class. So I think that is a very instructive, you know, comparable. Now, Sanderson had more resume, although his season did get ultimately cut short due to COVID in that draft year. but not by it, you know, too much. But I think that's why that's an important comp. Yeah. And the COVID draft, not that one, but the following one,

I think is probably the most interesting one to think of when it comes to this circumstance. You know, there's been a couple of really high picks that I've had injury short in seasons. Alex Gowchenioch at three, Morgan Riley at five, and obviously Nolan Patrick at two. But I don't think we, you know, it's not really the completely the same in that I think, you know, once Patrick was a senator, he's a late birthday, even when he was playing, his play fell off a little bit during the draft year from his pre-draft seasons. Gow Chenyak was a torn knee.

He didn't play at all in his draft year. And Morgan Riley is probably the closest comp to Schaefer because of the league, the position. He was a straight 17-year-old. But as well, the fact that he's just maybe a little bit lower level, talent level than Schaefer was at the same age. I think when you look at the 2020 Waddraft

is the most instructive. I think you can make a straight phase argument that Schaefer's close to Owen Power as prospects at the same point in the process. Power goes one. He still played during the draft year. He got, you know, a D-9 game in Michigan. He got to play at the World Championships, the extremely, you know, limited time at the World Juniors because of the canceled

tournament. But there was still uncertainty. There was uncertainty in crown that whole draft class, quite frankly. there was a lot of guessing, a lot of really strong opinions despite not having much information on a lot of these players. And, you know, it's interesting when we talk about how, like, an international tournament could shape the analysis of Schaefer so much. In that year, Mason McTavish was just fantastic at the U18 World Championships,

for example. And now he didn't play the game, the game, Miningame Schaefer played, mind you. But he was really, really good at the world. Among, you know, all the best players were there. he played a couple of games in Switzerland's second pro league and he goes third overall but could you imagine arguing like McTavishiko first overall just based on like that one week of play

it would have been it would have seemed a little aggressive but it didn't come far off I don't know where I know I'm on their list but they took him three it's conceivable they had him two he comes in I mean you have this list of the first overall picks he comes in ahead of Owen power he comes in ahead of Rasmus Dalian

That's the one that shocked me is, you know, I remember how excited everyone was about Rasmus Dahlin and the offense was certainly a kind of a special level. Yeah, when I do this exercise, I tell them to do this from the perspective of when they were still prospects. But I think, you know, we are human beings. And I think it's difficult to exactly put your brain in the exact time and place it was at this point every single summer. I do think there's some revisionist history with that, even though Corey does couch it the way he does. Alexei Lafranier over Nico Hescher, for example, on this year's list. That was just not the case at the time. So you have to sort of take it within that context.

It's an interesting. I would highly encourage everyone to go check it out. I mean, there's a lot of really good stuff in there. And I think it does put context for that, you know, this draft has been beat up a little bit. But I think when you see Schaefer's name at number five out of the last 10, like you come away with, you know, okay, ultimately, I think the top 10 of this draft is probably not what's been beat up quite so much. but it's always good to see a class has at least an average guy at the very top. That sets the tone. Yeah, I mean, I think we always think of drafts and it's defined by the very first couple of players.

And I don't think Schaefer's McElts celebrating and Schaefer's not Connor Bedard. But I think he goes back to the last two drafts. Schaefer's in the conversation with Lefshunov, for me, completely in that conversation. Go, the previous draft, would I have taken Leo Carlson and Ann Fantility ahead of Schaefer? Maybe, but I think you at least have to have a conversation about it. and then you kind of start going down the list and you can start having, you know, various debates. Like I think Michael Mesa last year,

absolutely the same conversation with Seneca, with Demadov, with Katie Lindstrom. Like, I mean, those are completely reasonable conversations to have. I might even have him ahead a couple of those guys, quite frankly. Like, it's... I would. Yeah, so, like, it's... I think people get a little too, you know,

I would not say maybe exaggerate a little bit much when it comes to the strength of a draft. There's still plenty of really good players in this draft. Guys who I think would be comfortable to a lot of the top prospects in this year's draft, maybe you're a little bit more excited to have a top three, top five pick in a couple of the past years, but you're still getting a good player in the top three, top five. Like, I think there are a couple of players in this year's draft who have a chance to be a number one center in the National Hockey League, or the case of part of Martone.

I think he's got a chance to be a legit first line, 30-goal wing in the NHL who plays. plays hard. I mean, those are valuable pieces. Scott, I think that kind of leads into the next part of this, which is how confident would you feel taking Schaefer at one over some of those guys who maybe have, you've seen them more, they have this projection to be, you know, one C's, which certainly if Schaefer's a 1D is just as valuable as a 1C, but you just, there's a little more uncertainty in him when it comes to making that first overall pick. There's certainly uncertainty relative to Macklin-Cellibrini or Connor,

or that type of talent where it was just a no doubter. I think there's always a little bit of uncertainty just taking a defenseman at number one. That in and of itself doesn't happen every year and isn't even a conversation every year. But in saying that, I still think the highs were so high and to Corey's wow factor that he sort of touched on, the best hockey that anybody would have seen any of these players play, including Michael Misa when he was on his heater in the second half, the best hockey that any player in this draft class played was, you could probably point to a number of games that Matthew Schaefer played, where he was just so clearly the best player on the ice, where he took over. And I liked Corey's parallel back to Owen Power as well. Power had some, despite the limited time in power season, he had some high highs.

He scored a hat trick at the World Juniors against the checks in that canceled tournament. Owen Power was outstanding in a few high, sort of high end moments in that year. But Schaefer, I think you look back at London in Oshawa, you look back at the Halinka, you look back at some of the plays he made in his short time in Erie, the skating, the birthday that I mentioned. I still think my confidence level taking him number one would be high. And certainly I think I'd feel more, I've got him ranked first, but I'd feel more comfortable taking him than I would Michael Mesa, as great as Mesa was with his 134 points this year. I think the impact that you're looking at, if, If Matthew Schaefer becomes as good as it looks like Matthew Schaefer and if the hockey he played this year was the real deal and the real Matthew Schaefer, I think he's a more impactful player at the NHL level than any of the other kids in this draft. The name that I think is the most, we need to get to next, basically, is the guy who came into this year as the first overall pick. And that's James Hagan's. We expected that coming into the year, he would be the guy we're talking about for whoever won the lottery. It just so happens that it's his hometown team, the New York Islanders. and yet here we are, and it feels like he's kind of this third name behind Schaefer at one

and then maybe Mesa as the like, do they go as the alternative. Why are we not talking about James Hagen's in this same tier anymore, Corey? Well, he had a pretty good year at Boston College, and I thought he was excellent, quite frankly at the World Junior's. He was a really big reason why USA won gold at the World Junior. He played a lot of minutes. He was led their forwards in ice time in the tournament. Yeah, yeah. you know, to their top center.

He was great. I would be fair to say, though, what he was at Boston College, and I watched a lot of his games, I'm sure Scott did too. There was a lack of, you know, a guy who would take over the game in the way that some of these other players we mentioned would. And there's a big difference between college and junior. And I feel like Higgins almost gets, hurt by the fact that he's coming off years where Adam Fantilli just did what he did in

Michigan and then Macklin Celebrini just did what he did at Boston University because those two dominated a level in a way a few others did. Celebrini did have games even as a 17 year old in college where he took over. Fantilli same thing in Michigan. Higgins didn't have that. He was often the fourth or fifth best four for them sometimes. Sometimes he was really good and some nights he was very much in the background. And that's not to completely discredit his year. He was still a point per game player, a legit big minutes

player on one of the very best teams in the NCAA. You know, you go back to that COVID draft. You look at what Mattie Benares and Kent Johnson did and Michigan. It's a very comparable season to Hagan's. You know, Higgins couples that with elite

skating ability. Maybe not quite as big as those guys, but he's extremely talented and has a great overall track record. I think there's a couple of things that propped up, though, that hurt his case for to be a 1-1. First is, I thought he really struggled with the physicality of the college level. And that was something that didn't show up as much in junior hockey.

I think in college he got bullied a little bit, he got pushed to the outside, more than some scouts would like, and he's still a really young player. But when you go up levels, when you're small, that's the big concern. and he, I would say, accentuated that concern as opposed to alleviating it, that he's going to hold up against NHL defensemen when it comes to the physical parts of the game. And like I said,

just think overall, for a guy who's calling card is his offense, is not his size, as not his physicality, it's not as compete, the offense just wasn't there in a massive way this season that you would have hoped. But Ken Johnson didn't point in a massive way, too,

as an offense-driven player. He still goes fifth overall. redo that draft. That's probably right around where he ends up still going. I still think Hagan's has a legit claim to be a top five pick. But I think you're hearing scouts wonder, okay, well, maybe he's a wing. And now he's 510, 511. I don't know how many times I've heard the name Clinton Keller thrown around. I think he'll be better than Clayton Keller.

I'll ultimately the other day. I think he's a better skater than killer. But I think, you know, if he's a wing, you take away some of the value out of his game, even though he's been a center all of his life. I think those are some of the factors there. That being said, I think Hagen's an outstanding player. I think he's going to be a legit first line forward in the NHL. It would not offend me if he goes top three.

I don't have him currently there on my list, but I absolutely can see the argument for it. I just think getting him to one from where he is right now, for what he showed this season, that would probably be a stretch too far. But I think two, three, four, five at that point, he's in the conversation. I think the big thing, Corey sort of alluded to it in the talk of him drifting to the perimeter maybe a little bit more.

The big thing that I kept hearing from teams really starting in the late fall was that they just wanted to see him score more. There was a time this year where there was uncertainty as to whether he was going to get to the 10 goal mark on the season. He ultimately finishes with 11 and 37. But that wasn't really evident in his game at the NTDP. He was coming out of setting the U18 world scoring record. He's also the U-17 World's record holder for points. He, when you talk to people about him a year ago, whether it was scouts or whether it was people around him, the coaches at the NTDP, they all praised his competitiveness.

They talked about him as a dog who was in the fight and in scrums after whistles and would stand up for his teammates and would go to the front of the net and score dirty goals. And that this year just wasn't there at the same level. Now, again, to Corey's point, it is extremely hard to play that kind of game and to be that kind of a driver as a 17, 18 year old kid in college hockey on a top program. And there were moments where he was that guy and he was a driver. There were games over the course of the season where he outplayed Gabe Pro or Ryan Leonard, for example.

But there were also a lot of games where he didn't and sort of blended into the game a little bit more than people wanted to. I remember a series against Merrimack coming directly out of the world juniors where he was great. Mary Mac's a big team, a big heavy team. and he struggled to be a factor in that that weekend set with them, both games. And I always go back to that. I think if scouts were in the building for those two games, for example,

they would have seen a player who was talented and could skate and all the things that Corey said, but who didn't, didn't own it like we saw Michael Mesa own it all year. And like we saw Matthew Schaefer own it when he played. But in saying that, he considered, his camp told me they considered playing in London this year. And if he'd played in London for the London Knights with Easton Cowan and Denver Barkier, whoever you lined him up with, we're probably talking about 120 or 130 point season. That's if not Michael Mesa levels of production probably wouldn't have been far off. So the college game does need to be factored into the conversation that we're having about Hagen's.

The scouts in the league who are still very bullish on Hagenes, who have met that two, three spot, often used that argument if he was in the OHL, if he was in the QMG, J.HL, when Denoy's name comes up, for example, what would he have done this year? Which is fair, because when he was in the USHL last year, we put up huge numbers. So I think it's a perfectly legitimate argument. And he was excellent at the world juniors, right, including a couple of goals digging in the blue paint. Like those are, those are not soft perimeter goals he was scoring. No, huge wrap around goal.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's very possible. We're getting to this point next year and he's in the Hobie Baker conversation and we're like laughing at where he went in the draft. It wouldn't, I'm not saying that's what's going to happen, but it's within the realm of possibilities, I think. I mean, how many, we, we, compared him to Logan Cooley, how many times if we had the debate

of should Logan Cooley have gone one? I mean, we certainly, by this point, I think, are settled that Logan Cooley belonged in the top three where he went. Yeah, yeah, and I think there's some differences there a little bit in terms of Cooley's drive, and, but like I said, it wouldn't, we'll see how Boston College's team looks at the year. They lost some big guns over the summer, but, college hockey is going through a transformative process.

Let's just put it mildly right now. So we'll see what their roster actually looks like come the fall. But, you know, he could have an absolutely huge year. Here's one more thing I wanted to, especially when we talk about the Islanders. How different is hanging in from like a Matt Barzell? Because I think about when you have the first overall pick is bigger. That would probably be the first one. But other than that, that doesn't offend me too much.

My point is, like, when you have a top three pick or certainly the first overall pick. I think the first thing that comes to mind is it's an opportunity to add something that you do not have and you do not think you can find. But if you're the New York Islanders, you have Matt Barzell under contract for the next, I think it's six years. So you're probably not as motive. Like, I know I understand the argument of, you know, hometown kid and all that. But I, to me, that's especially where it just gets stretched a little thin. Was it Scott or Chris who said on our show last time that the Islanders were set at center? I don't remember. But they've got Barzell and Horvat. Like, that is a good one, too, for the next. Well, because Barzell is practically

a wing right now. And I think someone brought up Cal Richie, but Mike, I don't know, I don't think they're set at center. I mean, that's a fine group. That's not a winning group. Like, you know. I would agree. And they're older.

I mean, you have the chance, not Richie, but you have the chance to add a denouet or something like that, a Mesa. Like, that's also appealing. Yeah, again, with all these caveats that I think we all agree, it should be shape. I don't think you should exclude the centers from the conversation. Just because we're so good at center.

No, that is not the case. All right, let's take a quick break right there. We're going to come back with the mailbag. All right, we're back. And for the first time in what feels like a while, we've got a mailbag here, a good mailbag. Obviously, people wanted to know who their teams could pick now that we've got a draft order. So we'll start with a Flyers fan, Scott. Andrew wants to know, he says a lot of Flyers fans consider Denoye to be lesser from an offensive potential standpoint relative to the other options at six.

Do you think that Denoye could be a legit point per game type of player? I think he's got a chance to be a shade below that. I think De Nyei has plenty of offense. I think we've seen that over the course of this season. There certainly was a bit of a question coming in as to is this kid at the start of the draft year just a first rounder who's a middle six kind of top 10 to top 15 pick, very good player, likable player, all of those things. And then he's shown people over the course of the season enough offense.

He was one of the top offensive players, both in the regular season and so far in the QMJL playoffs, which are now about to sort of enter their final here with Ramuski and Moncton. He's on top of that. He can penalty kill. He takes important face-offs. He's a six-one center, all of those things. But I do think there's offense, and particularly the sense and the smarts piece gets a really high grade for Danway. Does he have that sort of pull you out of your seat offense that we've seen in Connor Bedard and Ivan Demadov and Matt Vaymichkov and Beckett Seneke, and some of Will Smith, some of the pure skill guys that have come through the draft in recent years? No, that's not his game. He's not the highlight real type, maybe to the same.

same degree. But he makes a lot of plays and he makes plays in the guts of the ice and in the home plate area. And, um, I, I think there's enough offense there. I think he's going to be a PP one potentially guy. And if not, he'll be a important part of a second unit kind of thing. Um, so I wouldn't downplay day day. I do think it's a bit of a misnomer. Whenever we talk about kids as two way types, I almost feel like by default, we start to talk them in terms of all people yeah. Yeah. Exactly. So I think there's a bit of that with Caleb. He's a very, very responsible player. He doesn't cheat the game. You hear it all the time about him, but that quote-unquote winning hockey player, that's the type of player that Dan Le is when people talk about

him. But I don't think that necessarily precludes him from being an offensive talent. And Corey has touched on it before, but we're talking about similar production to Pierre Luke Dubois, to Nico Heshire. Like, he's, he produced this year. He put up points this year. He played on a top team, but he was that top team's best player. So, uh, I, I wouldn't, worry about it. Is he going to be a point per game guy? Maybe not. But could De NWAie be a very, very high end 60 to 70 point center in the NHL? Absolutely. And those guys are soon going to make eight, nine, 10 million bucks. So we're still talking about a legit high end prospect here. I've watched a good amount of his games here down the stretch,

saw a couple of them live and off and a couple of them just watching from home. And there's been a handful of really high end skill plays that he watched. He makes. that I don't think he's, you know, an elite offensive guy at the next level, but he's got skill, he's got vision, he's got hockey sense. I don't think he lacks that in this game. All right. Next one's for Corey from Maxwell, not me. But I am also curious. What forward from this draft would benefit Connor Bedard the most?

I think that's really, you know, the biggest variable there is whether you think Bedard's a center or a wing. And I think he can play center of the NHL, but I think the question is going to be, is he a center on a team that's winning the Stanley? top. I think that's a question that Chicago fan, Chicago management's debating, something that we debated going into his draft year, whether this guy who's 5-10, who's not an elite skater for that size is really going to be a 1C in the NHL on a premier team. You know, I mean, if you do think that, then maybe it's Porter Martone. You know, some of the size, the skill, the hardness on the wing there, that'd be a nice matchup. But if you think he's a center, then you're looking at Michael Mieson. So you're looking at, Brandel, you're looking at Caleb Dinoier. Like, I think those are, you know, guys who can get him the puck, who can win, who can win pucks, who can be the responsible defensive player and just let Carter do his thing with the puck on a stick

and make all the fancy, flashy, skilled plays he does. And I think you can kind of, I'm not saying that Caleb Dinoe is like as hard as Jonathan Taves, but if we've always talked about Bidard as kind of having some cane qualities, there is that kind of same yin and yang there. I mean, I can almost guarantee you if they draft. Frondell or Dinoje, they're going to make the taste. Cain compares in the second they make that pick. It's just a matter of how many times they make it.

Yeah, for sure. All right, next one's from Midwest Gambler. Scott, biggest risers and fallers over the last month. So that probably includes some U18 stuff, but even before. Well, there are a few risers that sort of immediately come to mind. The two big ones are probably Brady Martin and Cole Reshney. Reshny was absolutely phenomenal for the Victoria Royals. they had no business being a competitive playoff team, let alone pushing a Spokane team that is among the CHL favorites for the Memorial Cup this year.

He dragged them through the first two rounds. He was the best player in their first series against Tri-City. And he was as good as Berkeley Catton and Andrew Crystal and the best players that Spokane had on the other side of the ice in that second round series. He then went to the U-18s and was very good, joined them late, and was very good. I don't know whether he was a star or a true standout in the tournament, but I think everybody would agree that Reshny continued to play well and was an impactful player for a Canadian team that won the gold medal. But Reshny's playoffs were impressive. He dragged that team into the fight. He was the competitive center of that team.

He checked against the opposing teams his best players down the stretch. And it just felt like it was one three or four point game after another for him in the final months of the season. And all of this for Reshny coming out of a fall where his staff, staff with that team with the Victoria Royals told me that they were disappointed in the way that he played in October November and that he was disappointed despite scoring the game-winning goal in the second game of the CHL USA Prospect Series. He was disappointed in his play in that as well. So really, really impressive second half for Reschney.

I think it pushed him from late first, maybe even early second, sort of into the firm middle of the first round range, that sort of 15 to 25 range. So full marks to Reshney. Martin is a big one coming out of U-18s. Brady was a force of nature in the event physically, like he always is in terms of the competitiveness and his ability to just bowl guys over and win pucks and bully guys with his physicality. But he also made some high-end plays, including a big one in the gold medal game. And I think people have increasingly been sold on not just the fact that he's a six-foot center who's ultra-competitive and sort of a physical, unique player in this

draft class, but also on the skill and his ability to make some plays. So he's now, Brady is firmly going to be a top 10 pick in this draft class. I had people coming out of U-18s even mentioned sort of four, five, six as a potential range for Brady Martin in this age group now. We'll see whether he actually goes that high, but his stock is sort of red hot. And then if I were to mention a third one, I would maybe give L.J. Mooney some love. L.J. was injured through stretches of this season, didn't have the kind of year that I'm sure he wanted to have when you're 5-7, you have to sell scouts and you have to play games and

prove people wrong and prove it to people over and over and over again. And he didn't really do that in the fall and through the middle of the season here. But he did sort of close out the season as one of the best, one of the very best players for that American team and one of the standouts at the U18 worlds prior to getting injured in the bronze medal game. So full marks to LJ as well. he sort of really grabbed it at the end of the year. As far as fallers, I don't know whether there's been any notable fallers. Some of the kids that are still playing in the playoffs, whether it was until recently Kayshan Aitchison or Caleb Dainway,

they've all actually played quite well in this age group. Maybe Frundel would be the one that sort of immediately comes to mind. I still think Frundel's going to be a top pick, and I think he could go as early as third overall to Chicago, for example. But I think if you were to pull a sort of list of scouts, they were disappointed at the very minimum they were disappointed by the way that he played at u18s and he didn't really rise to it not just for them but for that that swedish team i think they they needed him to be better than he was and and he kind of fell flat and blended in a little bit

more than say porter martone did a year ago at the same event more falling though on public list it sounds like than team list right corey yeah i'd agree with that i thought i probably say he goes wherever somewhere between three to seven like that's probably probably That's probably the smart range. All right. Next one's for Corey from Nabil Raymond. He says on last week's episode, you mentioned some teams have Jake O'Brien

is the best forward in the draft. Do you think it's actually realistic that he goes top four or five? Yes. Next question. I don't know. Just kidding. I don't see that big a difference

on a talent level between him and Beckett Seneke. You know, Seneca's a little bit bigger. And Jake's a center. But both good skaters, not elite skaters. Gators, maybe Seneca a little bit more quick twitch than O'Brien, both hyper-skilled, you know, tremendous hands, tremendous, you know, great playmakers, not super competitive.

You know, Jake probably, I think a little bit slower, you know, a little bit more well-rounded, actually a centerman. It's not perfect comparisons, but if Becca can go three, I think Jake can go five. All right, let's get you both on this one, but we'll start with Scott. Randy wants to know where would 21-year-old Isaac Howard rank on draft day if he was available? hypothetically in this 2025 class. Oh, that's an interesting one because we're talking about a long time here since Isaac Coward was playing at the NDDP and scoring big goals at U18 Worlds as well.

But we're talking about present day Isaac Howard. So we're saying if you had the chance to draft them, they want to know what they got to move to get him from Tats. That's right. Pretty much. Yes. I mean, I think Isaac in terms of this draft is probably a not in that sort of top 10, top 11 group, but I think he's a comparable prospect and piece of the puzzle to whatever is in that

next range, the teens of this group. Now, I'm higher, I know I'm higher on Isaac and have been since his draft year than Corey is. I think Corey had him more in the range that he actually went, which was obviously the 30s, early 30s. And I had him kind of in the teens of that, that age group. But I'd still probably have them in the teens of this age group. Part of that is that I don't love the kids who are going to go in that range. Like I've got a lot of time for Carter Bear and Winden-Lykevich. And you go down the list, Cole Reshny, who we mentioned. They've got more more elements than Howard.

Yeah. Yeah. Justin Carbono too. Like those are all very, very good players and players I'm fond of and will be good NHL players. But I think Isaac's, if not in that group, then certainly not far behind in terms of what we're talking about. Now, can you move him for equal value?

is the question when he's already asked out. The answer is no. He wouldn't carry that kind of a value in it if you're trading his rights, simply because everybody knows that he doesn't want to be a part of the fold or isn't at the present moment interested in being a part of the fold with the Tampa Bay Lightning. So I'm not sure whether it's an equal transaction there. But in terms of the quality of the prospect, I think he's got a chance to be a middle six score and a power play guy in the NHL.

And I think that's about what a middle of the first round. pick projects to be as well. He'd be probably for me the exact same range he went, like late first, high second. Super, super skilled, you know, natural scoring winger. Don't think the feet are elite for that size. I think it's a good skater.

I think he's a great skater. I don't think he's super competitive. You kind of see the inconsistencies in his games over the year. Obviously, this year was a high point where he won the Hobie, one of the best players in college. That when Tampa's manager, Julian Breezeblaw, said that whether he intended to kind of throw him under the bus or not, he said that Howard

valued the ability to choose where he wanted to play. That's definitely not going to help his trade value because it sounds like he wants to walk to free agency, or at least he's threatening. That doesn't mean if he gets traded, you know, I'm sure they'll have conversations about where he'd like to sign. I would guess at best you're getting a second round pick for him. Could even be a third round pick you're getting for him just due to those various issues. You're not trading him for a third. You get a second if he walks.

Right. But then you did time value there. The second round pick is in the following year's draft. It's not in this. It would be, and that'd be the year after he doesn't sign, I think, would be the, would be the case. And it's, if you're Tampa, it's a late second too, right? Like, it's, yeah, it's, you're planning to still be, yeah. Chicago Blackhawks have the Toronto first round pick. That's at 29. They also have their own first round pick at 34. You wouldn't one of those two for Isaac Howard and reunite him with Frank Naser, his old linemate from the NTDP, Corey? I mean, I like him.

I think he's a late first, high second, but from Chicago, I need to have some assurances he's actually going to sign with me. I'm not sure Chicago has a ton of interest in another 510, 511 winger either. All right. Next one is from Gritizens United and NHL and Atlanta. I'm kind of combining two questions here. what is the potential ceiling for denouye frondel and o'brien and then the n hl and atlanta part of this also kind of wants to know who would fit best with mitchikov so he's coming at this from a philly

perspective but first let's just start with the ceiling for denouyea frondel and jake o'brien i have you know all three of those guys in a pretty you know same level of a hockey player i have denouye a slightly ahead of o'brien frondel but i mean i think they're all you know top six centers in the NHL. I don't know if either any of them are really legit ones on a contending team, but I think they could be ones if things around them go very well. I mean, you can look in the NHL playoffs right now, for example, and look at some of the first line centers, quote, unquote,

on teams that are very deep and have a lot of good things going for them. And I could see those guys fitting in in that capacity. I don't know if any of them are ever going to outscore Muttfe Mitchkoff at any point. But I think, like I said, my leanest words, Denauey, I just think he has the offense and the two-way play in a significant way. But I think Frundel does too, and it would shock me if O'Brien, it gets within distance of Mitchcoff's 70 years in terms of scoring. think I have it ordered as Danway A, Frundell, O'Brien. Now, in saying that I think O'Brien, from a pure skill perspective, from a power play perspective, probably has the most dynamic quality to his game in terms of puck play. But I think in the other two, you're projecting that they're going to be excellent,

sort of well-rounded two-way centers in a way. And O'Brien's actually a competitive kid and is known as a very reliable player and is well liked for that regard as well. But I think there's just there's a little more strength in Frundel and there's a little more smarts I think in a player like Dainway A so it's uh I think they're a to Corey's point they're all probably more or less in the in the same ballpark for me I thought what was really fascinating is when the OH put out their coaches poll a few weeks ago is that I think in almost every offensive category O'Brien was was rated by the O HL coaches ahead of Porter Martone in terms of like the offensive skill components so

let you know exactly what people who've been around him, you know, every, every weekend, think of this guy from a skill and offense perspective. From the Philly side of this, that part of the question, I don't think they're going to get their choice of these three. They may be hoping that they just get one of these three to fall to them. But there is an interesting tradeoff there. I think, like, the pure playmaker of O'Brien is really appealing idea with Mitchkov. But then you also have the fact that Michikov is very much not a perfect player defensively

and the idea of having one of those two-way centers, Denouye and Frondell, next to him could be really good for him, Scott. Yes, all three of them have a bit of a defensive conscience, which has been a talking point with Matvey, obviously, for a long, long time. I think it's been overstated with Munchkov at times, and I think we saw that with Torts this year,

that he is capable of buying in and at least being a break-even defensive player. I don't think he's a liability out there in the way that many thought he might become, but in saying that, he could still benefit absolutely from playing with a player who's more responsible off the puck, who picks up the guy, the high guy in the zone, who can allow someone else to cheat down ice a little bit, and for him to take his chances down the ice, all of that. So again, for all three of those players, I think they all provide that to varying degrees.

De Noier has that, has really does have a really strong defensive conscience. I'm not sure whether Frundell has that to the same degree or whether O'Brien has that to the same degree, but all three are responsible players. And certainly, Frondell has, he's, he's the thicker, stronger, heavier player of the three in terms of projecting to the NHL. So he's got that box checked in a way that those other two don't. Dainwey, and, and, especially O'Brien, like, O'Brien's still a very skinny kid and has a lot of work to do in the gym to fill out his frame. Danway does two to a lesser extent. Frundell doesn't necessarily have that same, that same work ahead of him in terms of getting stronger.

He's filled out more than those other two kids are. But it's an interesting, uh, interesting range for the flyers to be. Because if, if neither of those three are, are true, true number ones and Jetluchenko is a middle six guy,

then you might still be in a situation where you don't necessarily have the ideal, ideal first line center in that, in that organization. All right. Next one, Scott is from John Sebastian Godin. Would Logan Hensler be a, top 10 pick if he had played in the CHL, and is there that much of a separation factor between him, Jackson Smith, and Sasha Bumadian?

Well, I don't think there is, I think he's right in that same group as players like Bumadian, for example. I don't think there's a gap one way or the other, whether you have Hensler higher or Bumadine higher in terms of, if you were to poll NHL scouts, I think they have mixed feelings about Logan Hensler, and I think they have mixed feelings about Sasha Bumadian. And some have mixed feelings about Jackson Smith, though. I think Jackson would be the still the sort of favored guy of that group of three. As far as the CHL side of that question, I don't know, honestly. We can do that for everyone.

I don't think Hensler is the dynamic kind of talent who would have pointed and put up well above a point per game kind of thing in junior hockey. Now, would Logan Hensler have run a power play in the OHL or QMJHL or WHL? Absolutely. Would he have been productive at those levels? levels, absolutely, but we're not talking about Zane Perek or Sam Dickinson types here either. He's not, he's not a dynamic, dynamic offensive talent. He's talented for sure. But I don't think, I still think we'd be talking about him in the same range as Jackson Smith

and in the same range as Sasha. Like, I don't think he would have separated himself had he played junior instead of college. All right. Another one for both of you, but we'll start with Corey here. This one's from Corey Oliver. Using only your pre-draft analysis, how would you rank these players as draft eligibles. Yaroslav Ascarov, Sebastian Kosa, Jack Ivan Kovitch, Yesper Walsdet, and Joshua Ravensburg. And basically, how do Ravensburg and Ivan Kov compared to the recent top goalies? That's a good question.

Probably would, and I loved Kosa on his draft year. So I was probably too high on him. But it probably would have gone Escarov, Kosa, Walsdet, Ravensberg, and Ivan Koso. Walsdett, Ravensburg, and Ivan Kovic. In hindsight, given the fact that I was too high on Kosa, it probably would go Ascarov,

and then I would say a significant drop to the rest of them. And then I would probably go Kosa, Ravensburg and then Walsed at Ivan Kovic. Is it a big gap to Ivan Kovic for you? Obviously, the big variable there is he's way smaller than those other players. Yeah, I mean,

Well, Walsett was just terrible this year. So I think it's like I kind of projecting both of them as backups in the NHL right now. And that's what I think Ivan Kovic is. I think, I mean, he's a special, special junior goalie. I do wonder how that, I mean, you basically got to think he's Yusai Soros. And he could be like his, he's got some freak nature, you know, athleticism. He's super smart, super competitive. There's a lot of things going for him, but he's got to basically be Soros.

to make it. And it's probably why he's going to be a second or third round pick right around where you say went. I just think there's a little bit too much risk on his profile to be a first rounder like some of those other guys. Scott? I was highest of that group. I was highest on Ascarov and then Walsett.

I was higher on Walsett than I was on Kosa at the time. In hindsight, to Corey's point about just how bad Wollstett's year went this year, just from a combination of injury and play standpoint. I think Wollstead has been downgraded. Kosa still a bit of a mixed bag himself as well. But I think Ascarob's in a sort of group of his own amongst those five goalies. And then you've got Kosa and Walsstad and Ravensberg and somewhere in the middle. And Jack, because of the size piece is probably fifth out in that group.

All right. That is going to do it for us. Good mailbag, guys. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. I'll be back with Laz for your next episode of the Athletic Hockey Show on Monday. We'll talk to you then.