The Athletic Hockey Show - WJC: Canada and USA early roster thoughts, camp updates and projections, a bunch of listener questions, and much more

Episode Date: December 17, 2021

First, Max and Corey, who visited Team Canada’s World Junior camp this week, give their early thoughts on the makeup of the team, including Hendrix Lapierre getting cut from the squad, and Connor Bedard essentially taking his spot, why Brandt Clarke wasn’t invited to camp, Owen Power’s potential impact, Kent Johnson’s anticipated arrival, and the team’s chances of winning gold, as well as Aatu Räty and Ivan Miroshnichenko not participating in the tournament for Team Finland and Team Russia, respectively.Next, the guys, who were both in attendance at Team USA’s WJC camp, give their initial impressions of the team, and talk about Thomas Bordeleau’s unfortunate exit due to COVID-19, Logan Cooley’s role, Luke Hughes and Jake Sanderson as the real strength of the team on both sides of the puck, the pressure on Drew Commesso to be great in goal, and more.Plus, to close things out, the guys answer listener questions including if it was a fluke that seemingly more “homer run” franchise players were drafted in the first decade of the 2000s as opposed to the second, Corey’s confidence in Conor Geekie’s NHL projection, the absence of CHL players on Russia’s WJC roster, expectations for Brock Faber at World Juniors, which pro league is best for developing forwards age twenty or older, standouts from Detroit’s “army of Swedish prospects”, which NHL teams will either make or miss the playoffs in the next few years because of their prospect pool, and early picks for WJC All-Stars and leading scorers.And, right now, you can sign up for an annual subscription to The Athletic for just $3.99 a month when you visit http://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hey, everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Corey Prondman, back with another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's prospect series. We're ramping up for the world juniors. Corey and I are both at the USA World Junior Camp this week. Corey was at the Canada World Junior Camp. That tournament is coming in hot, so we're going to talk about just kind of some early impressions on the roster for both of those two teams. Some of the people who are in, some of the people who notably are not, as well as a couple of notes from around that tournament. We're going to get into all that in a minute. But first, if you are a fan of the show, I did want to ask that you first go on Apple Podcasts, leave us a five-star rating.

We would really appreciate that. You can count it as an early Christmas present to us if you want. Corey, how you doing? I'm doing well, Max. It's getting towards that busy time of year right now. By the time we post this on Friday, we'll be a couple of days away from the Spurs pre-terming games. And there's actually another national team event going on in Europe. right now. So next three, four weeks are going to be very fast-paced in the prospect world.

You leave on Christmas Day for the World Junior Tournament, and you just got back from seeing a couple of the metal favorites. So let's just dive right in there, and I want to start with Canada. I mean, I guess the team that Canada puts out, most of the favorites have made the team, but a couple of kind of notable omissions. One, Brand Clark, not even at camp, and another, Hendricks-Lapier, does not make the team, despite having already gotten some NHL action. Yeah, I actually had one of our readers point out that Hendrix LePierre was the first player who has played NHL games to be cut from their U-20 team since Brett Bollmer back, I think it was about 10 or so years ago. He was a high second-round pick by the Minnesota Wild.

Yeah, so it was notable because he has played in the NHL because he has scored in the NHL because he is a highly thought of prospect. And also he had a strong history with hockey Canada. He hasn't played with them at a ton of events, but the one event he did play with them at the Hockey Cup two summers ago, he had an outstanding tournament, one of the best tournaments ever by anyone, production-wise, at that event. And I was with this age group.

And I was kind of always presumed that when this tournament came along, that he was not only going to be on the team, but it would be an important part of the team. But there were things that led up to the cut that made it at least somewhat foreseeable. When we were at that tournament, I didn't say, hey, he's getting cut. You started talking to some scouts there,

like, hey, it might be trending in this direction. I don't think he has this locked down. And there are a couple of variables. One is among his various U-20, camps that he's had, the one last winter, the one this past summer, and then this one, he's never really stood out at any of them. You know, like he was fine at the two this year. Like, he, you know, he showed some skills in playmaking, but he wasn't a top player at those

events. You know, at this tournament, particularly where it was a selection camp where you needed to rise to the occasion, he was just fine. I don't think he registered a point, got a couple of chances. He wasn't bad, but he wasn't great. And that with a guy with his toolkit where it's basically a skill, playmaking type of player, you know, he needs to probably, you know, have a way to be on a power play on this type of team or be an extra. and, you know, he's not that big.

He's average size, not an amazing skater, not like this amazing two-way guy. So you can argue whether that's the right way to think about making a team or not, but that was the way Hockey Canada told us they were going to be making a team, and they stuck to that is that given that he didn't find a way to kind of carve out a top-nine role in terms of with his skill, they concluded there was no room for him on this team, even among the extras. So that's how that went. He also hasn't really, in junior hockey, the last two seasons,

been absolutely incredible. He's been a very good junior player, but he hasn't put up giant numbers where you defer to the body of work. The body of work that I've always heard reference from Scouts was his Lincoln Rescue Cup two years ago in his NHL games. So I'm sure it was a tough decision.

That was one that always kind of falls on the bubble, but it was definitely one of the biggest headlines coming out of that camp was the cutoff up here. Well, I also would imagine you talk about not just not in the top nine, but not making room from as an extra. Like, part of that, I imagine, is influenced by a guy who's not in his age group, and that's Connor Boudard kind of coming out of nowhere as a real skill player on that team that if he's on the team, you probably can't carry both of those two guys.

Absolutely. And after that first game where Connor Bredard, I think, had two goals and like three or four points. I've sent out a tweet about that, that him potentially pushing his way in is going to create problems for some of the bubble skill guys. Like

LaPierre and like Xavier Borgo, who were fighting for spots. And Badard had a great camp. We'll see where he slots in to start the tournament. He might kind of be a fourth line guy with second power play. It looks like early on right now, but we'll see.

when the real thing starts. But yeah, that was absolutely a variable. And if Baderd does not, you know, I think really, I love Kna Bader, but I thought a 16-year-old, he would have to do, you have a really good camp, you know, really productive, consistently noticeable camp to work his way into the mix. And he did. I did not see that coming personally. And that's why I thought Lepir would make the team.

But that was absolutely a big part of why that cut happened. It. Rare air for Connor Vodard making his way onto this team as a 16-year-old. I mean, the names that he joins are pretty absurd there in that group. I mean, what should people read into that, the fact that he was able to make this team from a draft perspective? Obviously, like, from a Canada perspective, maybe he's not going to be one of their five or six best players of this term. From his prospect status, what can be read into here? He's a really elite prospect. He's a guy who you can pick apart some small things about his skill set. He's not that big. Skating's good, I wouldn't call it exceptional. But his skill, his hockey sense, his shot are exceptional. He has a great work ethic.

And the accolades that he has been piling up in terms of things he's been accomplishing at his age are comparable to. some of the very best prospects we've seen in the last 20 and 30 years. You mentioned the point about a 16-year-old. Carter McDavid was on the World Junior. He was a 16-year-old, and he was solid, but he wasn't anything spectacular. So I think expectations need to be reasonable with this player, given that he will be on a very deep team, and they're not going to play a 16-year-old a ton.

But he's a guy who is going to be very much of the Mixby, a first overall pick next year. you're being the NHL two years and the guy you're talking about. If you get a chance to draft him, hoping he's going to become a star player for your franchise. Absolutely. All right, we're going to get to the rest of Team Canada a second,

but one more omission from the team, and that's the one who didn't get invited. That's Brant Clark. You look at Team Canada and the thing that jumps out of you, if you know a little bit about each of these players right away, is there not a single right-shot defenseman on this team. Or actually, is there one? No, there was not.

Vincent Aiorio. was invited to camp as a right-shot defenseman, but he was one of the two cuts. Yeah, so zero right-shot defenseman on this team. That is unusual for sure, but did Canada, have they kind of given an explanation yet for why Grant Clark was not among their final player pool for the camp? They did not give an explanation, and they wouldn't. I mean, that's not just a Canada thing. It's an every team thing that they usually don't like to comment on the cuts.

That's just usually how these federations work. But that doesn't stop us from talking about it. And, you know, there's some things that I can surmise from discussions I have of people around the league. There's a few variables. First is that I think while Brand Clark has had a pretty strong season in the OHL, the production has been there. He's shown his usual great skill, talking to many scouts with watching the OHAs. They haven't described his play as, you know, above and beyond type of performance. You know, he's had some stretches where he hasn't quite been as good, particularly defensively.

And I think that that way to against him, that his season, at least in the eyes of the scouts that I've talked to, I know his statistics are strong, has not blown people away. The other variable was the U18 World Championships last spring, where Brian Clark was good. But I think in the eyes of hockey Canada, Olin Zellweger was better, particularly in the things they wanted him to do, those the defensemen to do, on even strength, and particularly on the power play. And it's no surprise now that, one, Olin Zellweger is on the team,

and two, he is manning the second power play unit. They go back to the discussion that we have at the pier and roles. And when they start building the roster out, I think they said, okay, well, if Brandon Clark's on our team, he needs to be on a power play. then the question at, do we prefer Olin Zellweger and Lucas Corby on the second unit, which is based on Mark Masters report, and that seems to be the way they're cycling guys in the second unit right now, Owen Powers on the first unit.

It's like, or do we want Brian Clark? Based on, I think, what everyone saw at the U18 World Championships last spring, they preferred Zellweger. So that was another variable working against him. I still thought he'd get invited to Kemp, but the logic that I've had to relate to me by many people is if you bring him if you want zellweger and not Clark in that role if you invite Clark and he has a great camp then it would kind of put you in a bind so i think they decided just to rip the band-aid off and not invite him at the outset but he's still a very good prospect and

soon he'll be a big part of their team next year yeah it's you're right it's dramatized by the fact that he wasn't invited but ultimately if this is where it was headed if hockey can't Canada kind of had an inclination of which way they wanted to go with this. It's really not, it's not any more of a shocker, I guess, to see him at home now versus at home, or at home before the camp versus at home now in the grand scheme. Right. Yeah, he's a very particular kind of player. He's a skill, a playmaking type of defenseman.

He is not an incredible skater. He's not an incredible defender. That's never been his, his MO. He has a skill player. If you bring him, he's got to be in a sense. skill role. They concluded with Owen Power, Olin Zellweger, and Lucas Cormier. They had those positions accounted for. Like with Lepier, you can debate whether that's the

right way to build out a team or not. But that, I think, was the logic. And I think, you know, and frankly, Olin Zellweger was very impressive at Candace Camp. I don't think you watched him there. Like, he was the best defenseman, I thought. Obviously, Power was, and Guli didn't play because they were presumed locks. But I wasn't watching Zellweger there and thinking, oh, crap, they made a mistake. They should have brought Clark. I think he did the things you anticipated.

I thought Cormier, frankly, was not quite as impressive. I thought he, I think he was on the team regardless, but he probably didn't help his case that weekend. But Zellweger definitely looked very good. Well, let's talk about Canada's roster then as a whole here, because I look at it, and obviously you see the top strength that you expect to see of a team, Canada team. Yes, they don't have Quentin Byfield, who would have been eligible by age, but is not at this tournament. But it's still, you know, Cole Perfetti, Mason McTavish, Shane Wright, Dylan Genther, the kind of high, high picks at the top of a lineup that you want

to see. I also see they have some players who, you know, they can probably be a multi-dimensional team here. McTavish certainly would be part of that and writes a two-way player even as a draftier player. But, you know, Ridley Gregg, Jake Neighbors, Will Cooley, Maverick Bork. This is a team that can have some dimension here. Yeah, and it will be interesting to see what roles everybody plugs into. I think a lot of the guys you mentioned, like Wright, McTavish, Ridley-Greg, Jake Neighbors, Justin Sordiff, Logan Stancove, and Dylan Genther, they all have a lot of two-way ability as players.

These are not one-dimensional, offensive players. So it'll be interesting to see where people slide in, who's going to be the matchup line, who are going to be the penalty killers, so on and so forth. And I think it begs the question. whether they really needed to, I guess, you know, you can go back, again back to the little PR discussion and ask, you know, did you need to force things in here? Did you need to build a team a certain way when you have this many two-way guys?

But I think people will just still argue, to me, at least anyways, that his camps led to the cut, not his talent. But, yeah, I think there's a lot of, you know, two-way guys. A forward and on defense, I think a lot of their defensemen can both, can skate pucks out, can pass them, out and provide some offense. I think that was where the Clark debate came in, too. There's not a lot of dynamic offensive types on the back end.

But if they wanted their defensemen to be very good skaters, very smart players, there's a lot of guys who fit that ammo on their defense. Not practicing with them yet, but joining them will be Kent Johnson. He is joining them, right? That is the presumption right now. The presumption of Ken Johnson joining in Canada. He is currently not there. He will obviously add a high, high-scale element.

to that team the second he gets there. And I think if you heard me rattle through those names and want to just a little more flash, it's going to come in the way of Kent Johnson, who you expect to be running a high position, you know, probably the top power play for them from the flank. Right. Cole Profetti would obviously be another guy too who would provide a lot of that. You know, as we record right now, their first power play in it has been a combination of Perfetti power, Dylan Genther, Mason McTavish, and Shane Wright. We'll see what happens when Kent Johnson plugs in there. But, yes, he will provide him and Perfetti will provide lots of skill for their power play.

And on D, I mean, we talked about the handedness aspect. But, you know, this is also a team that when you look at Owen Power, Caden, Gouley, Carson, Lambo's, Donovan, Sabrango. This is a two-way defense court, too. You know, part of this goes back to, I guess, the conversation about Brand Clark. We can have the, whatever, just discussion about Brand Clark or whoever else, you know, you wanted to see you there. but I think the first name you mentioned Owen Power or something that's going to, it can easily get overlooked. This is, to my knowledge, the first time,

a drafted first overall pick has played in this tournament since 2013 when Ryan Newton Hopkins played there due to the lockout. So power should. After what he did in the World Championships last spring, you're expecting him to come in and frankly be dominant. You know, we can talk about who's on their second or the third pair, but I think Owen Power will just provide so much value to this team

and be such a minute's eater for this team that I don't, you know, I don't think that's really going to matter really who they brought in on the third pair. I think this guy is going to have to have a monster tournament. Is this the gold medal favorite? I mean, most years Canada at least enters as the gold medal favorite, but you look at this roster, does it say should win the gold? It does, and there are some other variables there. Like, you know, we've already seen, you know, Finlayloss arguably their best forward in Aturatu.

USA already loses one of their best forwards in Thomas Bordolo. You have a team that's a very deep at all positions in this case. And I think you look at the other rosters, and there's some good teams. But I think you looked at USA going to last season. You know, that was the stacked age group. That was the, you know, the 2019 draft. with Jack Hughes and Turcott and Zegers, Cam York, Spencer, Nyk, Cole, Caulfield, Arthur Calliope, you said,

okay, this is the age group, this is an elite age group. Obviously, Hughes wasn't there. I think I meant, if I didn't mention Trevor Zegers, I apologize. But you saw the weapons they had, and I just kind of look around the international landscape, and I don't see a team that's as deep as that to contend with them. you know, there's going to need to be some sort of, I don't want to say miracle, but an incredible performance by somebody, whether it's a goaltender like, Eraslov,

or Russia, Esper Walsdiff, or Sweden, or some sort of incredible performance by the United States where, like, their defenseman, like, Jake Sanders and Luke Hughes just play out of their minds, and Matthew Benitez has an incredible week. Something like that has to happen, I think, for them to falter, or, like, say, like, say that their goal tend to just absolutely crumbles or something along those lines. You talked about Atiratu, which feels like a natural segue. He obviously unable to go with Finland to the tournament.

That's a huge loss right off the top for Finland. He was among the best players that we saw at the Summer Showcase in Plymouth this past summer, was in line for a huge role, probably their number one center role at this tournament. You know, Team Finland often finds away international tournaments at every single level. So I'm not going to rule them out at all. but it's a huge loss for them. Yeah, I mean, they're still a, you know, it's going to be a good team. It's still team Finland.

But to your point, I mean, he was expected to be arguably their best player, at least their best skater. And with him out, it creates a real hole offensively. I still think, you know, you still look at a defense, Topi Nima, a returning player, well, you expect him who's among the leading scores in Finland as an offenseman. You expect them to have a big tournament. They have some other fours that are intriguing, but this was not an overly deep age group, and now they're hurting. And now you're going to see younger guys like Yol Kim Camel and Brad Lambert have to step up here and provide some offense. The returning players, Ronnie Harvonen and Casper Simone Tavall and Robi Yarventi will be expected to play significant roles.

But it's hard to see a path to a gold for this team. Doesn't mean they can't maybe get a bronze or something like that. It's going to be really tough now to see a path to a goal for them, though. Yeah, absolutely. All right, we're going to jump to a break in just a second. Before we do, I wanted to squeeze in a quick thought on Russia not taking Ivan Miroshenko. Potential top 10 pick in this year's draft, at least entered the year as that. What does this tell you about Russia not deciding to bring him to the world juniors?

Yeah, I would say after Shane Wright, there's varied opinions on who's next after him and what order they're in. I could talk to NHL scouts around the league. I've heard some who still have Miros de Chenko as a second best prospect. Some have him more closer to five, some have him closer to 10. So it's varied opinions, like I said, who's in what the next group looks like and who's in that next group. He's been a top guy in his age group for a long time. Obviously, his U18 World Championships last spring, whereas along the leading scorers was very notable. I thought he had a strong Klinka-Gretzky tournament in the summer where they won gold.

it wasn't exceptional there. Like I wouldn't say he was the quality because I've ever watched but he was pretty strong a top player on the team that won it. He's played versus men this year

it's been his play has been good and say he's been amazing but you know playing in the second tier men's league is not easy and I think he's more than held his own

I still want to watch my C lot of the same attributes that I've always valued you know big strong fast winger with great skill creativity who could shoot it, like a lot of things there to like.

I think the death knell for him was when they had that four nations in November, the U-20 event. We discussed this, I think, one or two episodes ago. He was good there, but the other draft eligible player, Daniela Uroff, I think I'll play him a little bit there, not by a huge margin, but by enough to where when they were building out their roster, if there was one winger spot available and it was between the two of them, it went to him. You can argue whether there should have been more winger spots available.

I looked through their roster and there's a couple of top six wingers that are obvious. Nikita Chippercov, the Jets pick, Montevay-Michka, that highly thought of, 23 eligible. I was under Pashten, the Carolina pick. And then you have, and then you have Ural. After that, I think you could have argued there was a spot for him. They argued his conditioning wasn't in the best spot, which, maybe. I don't know. That's an interesting rationale given they gave them a letter in a U-20 tournament a couple of weeks ago. So, so yeah, I don't think it's a crazy cut, but it was,

it was interesting. And from our perspective, one fewer draft eligible to watch, although this tournament is not going to be light on those for the 2020 draft unlike last year. Yeah, much different than last year. I think this year's going to have a lot of draft intrigue. All right. On to the next camp that you attended in the last week, Corey, and this one I was able to join you at for a little bit. That would be Team USA. Team USA actually delivered their final roster a little earlier than at least I was expecting that they had it done by Tuesday afternoon. That comes in. I don't think any major surprises there on the cut side. There was an absence that was unexpected that Thomas Bordolo, who tested positive for COVID, felt really bad for him. He's missed so many big hockey events in the last. two years due to, due to this virus, whether it be being actually obtaining it right now, having others obtained it at the NCAA tournament last year, or being a close contact at last year's World Juniors. Really tough break for Thomas Bordolo.

And in the U18 World Championships, when I'll see that when the pandemic first broke out, yes, he's been quite screwed over by this virus on numerous occasions. And he was going to be a very important player for this team, probably their second line center. And now with his absence, I think you're going to see the draft eligible, Logan Cooley, who I think in their initial assessment, is probably going to be on the wing, is probably going to play its natural position of center now to help fill that void.

And we're going to see how that makeup of that team goes with that kind of format. But when I watched Cooley at the camp, again, it was only like scrimmages and stuff like that. I thought he was one of the most dynamic players I saw there. I think we'll see what happens when the real game starts. Practices are a lot different than real games. But I really love Logan Cooley.

I think he's absolutely in the mix to be something like the second, third overall pick in this year's draft. And I definitely see a scenario where he gets to the tournament, and he looks the part as a top nine, top six forward. Absolutely. I mean, he really has a little bit of everything except maybe that size and strength, I guess, blend that you might want in a center. But it's speed, it's skill, it's smarts, it's compete. He has a little bit of everything that you want. Yeah, I mean, he, you know, he's not, I can say, compares to this player, but he definitely has a little bit like Braden's points. style type of this game.

And there's a lot of dimensions there even as a smaller center. Yeah, absolutely. So let's just dive right in then with Team USA. I mean, initial impression to this team, without Bordolo, they definitely take a little bit of a hit on the pure skill, the pure scoring side. But a team that's built, honestly, kind of in a very much, it's kind of the meme of how Team USA's World Junior teams end up looking here is it's a lot of downlineup bulldog types to complement some scoring and some high picks up top.

Yeah, I think the defense is going to be essential for this. team. And, you know, we're just watching them early on at camp. It was interesting. I think, you know, they're two big players, Sanderson and Jake Sanderson, the Ottawa pick. And Luke Hughes, the New Jersey pick, both top five picks on defense. They put them on different pairs. They had, you know, their returning members and Tyler Clevin and Brock Faber, not on the pair with Jake Sanderson. I think. So it'll be really interesting to see how this goes throughout the camp. The I don't know I pick Ian Moore I saw on the last day playing with with Sanderson.

But I think that those defensemen are going to be essential to whether or not they get a medal at this tournament. They have, you know, really good forwards. Obviously, they have, you know, first round picks like Chas Lucius, Mackie Sanchez-Savich, Matthew Coronado. And, of course, second overall pick Matthew Peneers, who's having an excellent season right now in Michigan and who's going to be an essential piece for them. But I think the defense is going to have to be, you know, pretty much. everything for them on top of a guy like Baneers. Well, that and Drew Commesso, right?

Like, in order for them to play the style of play that they're built to play, they can't go down 2-0 in the first 10 minutes to a team like Finland, let alone a team like Canada. Yeah, no, for sure. But Drew Comesso is not Spencer Knight with all due respect. Of course. I think Drew Comesso is a good player. But I don't think you're expecting him to post a shut-up in the gold medal game

against Canada like Spencer Knight did last season. I think there's, I think Drew's a good goal, maybe it would be realistic in where you're going to be provide in front of him. And like I said, I think there's, you're going to need Sanderson and Hughes just to be amazing, both shut in terms of their defensive play and creating offense. And if that doesn't happen, it's going to be hard to see a path to a

medal for them. Yeah, I mean, you talked about Owen Power and how he needs to dominate, be one of the, he should dominate be one of the best players of this tournament coming off what he did at Worlds. I think you can say the bar is same place for Jake Sanderson, basically, after what he's shown. Absolutely. I think for those two guys, there's going to be a lot of pressure for Luke Hughes

there will be a degree of pressure. For Simon Edmondson, with Sweden, there'll be a degree of pressure to really elevate. And even for Topi Nimbled, we mentioned before, who was not at the same caliber of prospect, it was one of the best defensemen in last year's tournaments, having an amazing season. And I think for all those defensemen, there will be a lot of, there'll be very high expectations to perform. One of the people who I thought, you know, when you and I watched practice the other day, you couldn't get a real feel for lines, but we did get a look at what we think were kind of USA's initial power play looks.

And Carter Mazur, the Red Wings third round pick, He was an overager this year, was on the flank of the second power play. He looks like a guy who, you know, he's off to a point per game start at Denver. He could be counted on in a little bit bigger capacity than maybe you would have expected a month or two ago. Yeah, I think that's perfectly fair. I mean, he's scoring right now at Denver. He brings, you always seen the speed and the competing in his game, but the added offense he's bringing in addition to the skating. It's been very interesting.

Most scouts I've talked to about him and have very positive comments on his play this season. and yes, I think he's a guy who's going to play a big role. I think another guy who may not be a household name will be Brett Barard, who was on last year's team. I was expected to play a very large role on this team. Obviously, he plays for the head coach Nate Lehman at Providence. That's not why. I think one reason why is with Borrelow's absence

and Logan Cooley not playing on the left wing, the left side of that lineup is not really that deep. Brett Barraud's an excellent prospect. So I'm not being to disrespect him, but you take one guy out and shifts everything around. I think if Cooley is your first line, left wing, and Roger second, you're happy. Is he a first line, first power play guy on a world junior gold medal team? We'll find out. But you have reason why you get all their first round picks, Lucius, and Miskavich, Coronado, their right shots.

So they'll play on the right side. Presume Lucius will not be a center here. Maybe he could be in a year from now. On the one of the power play units, it seemed like Team USA may try to make the two defensemen power play cool again. Right now, the invoked stylist to just roll with one defenseman on the power play. But there was one that had Scott Morrow playing out on the flank, and I think that can work for Team USA with his offensive skill set. Right. I mean, it's just, I don't think it's about trying to be old school.

I think it's about playing with the cards they have, and their talents is on defense this year. Scott Morrow is one of the most skilled players on the team. Jake Sanderson is one of the most skilled players on the team. Luke Hughes is one of the most skilled players on the team. So that's just what they have this year. And with due respect to the forwards they have, I think they're going to be relying on their defense to both make stops and to produce offense. Give me your pick for a name that USA fans maybe aren't looking at right now, but by the end of the tournament, we'll be excited about. I mean, I think we already mentioned a couple of them in Berard and and Mazur.

So you're kind of forcing me to go, you know, way down the depth chart here. But like I said, I thought it was really interesting watching Ian Moore play on the San Jose and Pear. Like, I like Ian Moore skating. I think he's got some size. There is a little bit of offense there. Will he stay in that big role the entire time? We'll see. But maybe he plays like Drew Ellison did last year.

There's some similarities in the way they play too. Yeah, I mean, I'll take Matthew Nyes. I mean, now the Toronto factor here may mean that he gets enough media blitz here to become a household name before the tournament. But he was a second round pick in 2021. He's 19 years old. I think he's a player who can really pop. He's got a little bit everything. He can score.

He's powerful. He's the kind of player that Team USA needs to have a big tournament if they're going to compete for a gold. Yeah. And I expect he'll be somewhere on the top six or the top line. Yeah, absolutely. Anything else on Team USA before we wrap up on them? Something that we've kind of always known about this team coming into this season was the goaltending situation.

Drew Kamezzo is an excellent goaltending. But not always he an excellent goalie, but he might be their only excellent goalie. I like Dylan Silverstein as a prospect, but he's 17 years old. They need Drew to stay healthy. They need him to be reliable because if they don't, you kind of look at the deaf chart. And it's Silverstein, who's a 17-year-old, 606-1-ish goalie, and Caden Barricco, who was an undrafted 5-11 goalie. So there's a lot of pressure on Commessel to perform right now.

All right, let's head to the mailbag now. We got some good ones today. first one that I wanted to get you with, Corey, is from Ryan Roser, who says, I noticed that the decade from 01 to 2010 had a lot more kind of home run franchise players go first overall than 2011 to 2020 or 1991 to 2000, especially in terms of immediate success. Was that decade just a fluke run of good top prospects and should we reset our expectations of number one overall pitch? That's a good question. And I haven't had that question put to me in those exact terms before in terms of the specific years. But I think over the last couple of years, we've seen first overall picks not have immediate star success in the National Hockey League. And it started a discussion of is there something wrong with how we're developing these players?

Is there something wrong with their expectations on these players? And I think those are all reasonable discussions that can be had. But I think what you usually find out is, I often get questions for this podcast and my work in other places on the strength of draft classes. You know, is this draft class average, good, bad, whatever. And my answers are usually very boring in which I say most draft classes are the same. But the places where I think you find by far the most variance in my years covering this field is that very, very top, whether it's the top five, top three, or particularly the first overall pick. That's where you see the biggest swings from year to year. And with that being said, you know, it can really vary wildly.

And over from year to year, five-year stretches, 10-year stretches, in the caliber of first overall picks you get. You know, we think in the next year, we'll get a good one, whether it ends up being Conor Bardard, Antifantilly, you know, Matvinichkov, or or someone or someone else. We think it will be a strong one. You know, we definitely thought, and we had some strong ones recently, like Austin Matthews, you know, superstar, Carmen David's superstar, Nathan McKinnon,

started off looking at a superstar, then he dipped and they came, then he came back. So you have, and in between them, you've had, you know, the Ryan Newton Hopkins years in the Taylor Hall, Nail, Yakupal, Aaron Eck Blitzman, which are very good players, but probably didn't rise to the level of Carmick David, Austin Matthews. So you have that balance. I'm not willing to say that we need to recalibrate, but I think there needs to be a realization

that not every first overall pick is created equal. And I think most fans understand that, but definitely in the context of, like, you know, there's real calibrations that need to be made depending on the particular year in a particular player. Like even now for Shane Wright, who I think is an excellent, excellent prospect, he's not having an incredible season.

And I still think he's at a, you know, fantastic, you know, definitely deserving of the first. first overall picked up a prospect. I think he's going to be an NHL star. But he's not having the year that you would expect of a player of that caliber. So at the very minimum, it's a discussion worth having with someone like him. Never mind, first overall picks in the grander context. I think it's a good point.

I think what can skew people is not just when a McDavid or Matthews comes along, but it can be these little stretches. Like there is that spurt from 13 to 16, three out of the four first overall picks were McDavid, Matthews, McKinnon, and Aaron Ecklad was the other one, and he might win the Norris Trophy this year. You had the spurt in the mid-2000s where it was, you know, three out of four years, Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, all those guys, MVP's, right? So you have these spurts where it seems like, okay, this is what a first overall pick is, but really those are kind of randomly distributed, and it just so happens that every once in a while, they'll pop in short succession like that.

It could be that in 23, you know, I don't want to put any outsized pressure. on these guys, let alone this young in their careers. But it could be that you get two guys who would have been like that level of first round pick in the same draft. And it's just that they both go in the same year. Right. I mean, you had 2016, who was first overall, 2016? McDavid and then Eichel was second.

That was 2015. Oh, sorry, Linae was in 2016. Line and Matthews. Lain Matthews. They had 2017. You could have argued, you know, any of Linae in 2016 or Ikel in 2015 would have gone I had a he share in 2017. I liked how you use the word randomly distributed.

That's what it could be. Even an example of Eckblatt, I mean, he was incredible this first year in the national hockey. He kind of plateaued after, then he came back. But he looked like a no doubt star after that first season in the National Hockey League. Yeah, totally. And frankly, to your point in 2017, if Kail McCar goes first overall, I'm not sure

that anyone, you know, or even Patterson for that matter, although he's up to slower start this year. Like, I'm not sure anyone considers that a year that, you know, we're a little down on the first overall pick. It's just that the specific guy didn't end up going first overall. Yeah, let's not go down that path. I've heard from enough Devils fans over the last five years that I know how the story goes. Fair enough. Fair enough. I mean, I guess the bottom line question here is if we want to take all this from 10,000 feet, like what level of player is a reasonable kind of recalibrated expectation for number one? Is it a top 50 player in the league, a top 30 player in the league? Like, do you have a kind of, I know you

don't have a, I know you're going to want a data answer here, and we're not going to have that data, but do you have a broad brush rule for what you would look for, what you would hope for reasonably as a GM? I think you're hoping he's a guy who may not be like a superstar, but probably top 10% or so in his position in the National Hockey League. So not just like a top line for or top 10 defense or top pair of defensemen, but a guy who's a good top line forward, a good top pair of fendman. Maybe not the star, superstar, whatever you want to call it, echelon, where he's

He's among the top five or so best in his position, which obviously would be obviously the best case outcome. But somebody who is, like I said, among the upper percentiles in the league in his position. Somewhere kind of around the Taylor Hall, John Tavaris range. Yeah, that's a fair. I think Taylor Hall is a successful first overall pick. It's not an above average first overall pick, but it's on the baseline, I think. and John Tavares is definitely on the baseline. Yeah, so I think that's a good one, and hopefully that gets at Ryan's question.

Next one's from Nick Richard, and this one, while that one was a very broad strokes, this one's super specific. How confident are you in Connor Geeky's NHL projection, 2022 draft prospect? He's a center. Nick has questions about his feet and his pace, especially the short area quickness. Yeah, I mean, his skating is the flaw in his game. It was for his brother Morgan, too, who was not. drafted until the second draft eligible season by Carolina in the third round, I believe.

Obviously, now he's with Seattle, and he's playing to have some success, and Conner's much farther ahead as a player than Morgan was at the same age. You know, you can be a national hockey league player and be a good one, even if you are a below-average skater. It's a flaw, and it goes into the risk calculus with the player, but I still think we have a 6-3 center with really good hands with really good offensive instincts

who has some physicality the production this season isn't amazing but Winnipeg's kind of a unique contact he doesn't get the first power play ice time how we just done this season and as well as his underage season it's a promising profile I still really like this player

I think he can be a top six four in the national hockey league I'm not willing to sit here and say he's like going to be like a star player, I think. There's not enough evidence there of that. And it's why I think when the draft rolls around, he'll probably be somewhere in that 7 to 15 range, I think. Avko Cup wants to know about the Russians not taking any of the CHL players to the world juniors, and what's behind that decision? To give context to his question. So there was three notable

North American cuts from this team. You could extrapolate it on to more, but the three, the people talking were the two returning members from last year's team. Danielle Chaka, who plays in Guel from the Ontario League and was a Vegas second round pick. Jan Kuznetsov, a Calgary second rounder, who was now at St. John of the QMJHL, and Daniel Gushin, a San Jose third round pick, who was not on the team last year, but has considered a top player in this age group for many years. And neither of the three were invited to be on the final U.S. 20 team.

It got people talking. You know, if I was making the team, looking at the roster, I probably would have brought at least some of those players. You could have reasonable discussions on some of them one way or the other, but I probably at the end of the day, would have brought all three. You know, when I reached out to some of my sources in Russia, they argued to me that they just thought they brought the best team, and they thought those three did not fit into making the best team.

And when I went to some of my North American sources, particularly NHL people, they said, that's bullshit. So it's that there's varying opinions. And it's not like Russia always leaves all North Americans behind. This seems like a bit of an anomaly. And should they go to the Olympics, I anticipate they will not follow that logic, for example. But it's definitely interesting. It's interesting in the context of how you kind of see.

they've always wanted players to stay home, but it seems like that's increasingly becoming a bigger theme in that they want players to come from Russia. But, you know, I talked about this in the Montfei Michkov article. But when I talked to Roman Rottenberg, the GM of Skha and of the Russian national teams, I actually brought up this point to him. I asked him, like, is there pressure to play for Scott, stay at home, Russia not going to make the national teams?

he told me, like, you know, he's not involved in that process. The coaches pick the best players. They just want to win gold medals. And I believe that last part. Russia really wants to win gold medals. You know, any tournament they win, you know, you look at the media that the Russian Federation produces. They make big deals out of every little event. So I believe they really do want to win.

But at the minimum, their Russia decisions beg some questions. Stay on the World Juniors, Carter Rubin, and you touched on this a little bit as we were going over the roster, but what do you expect to see from Brock Faber and the World Juniors, and I guess maybe the more new item here is what do you think is ETA to pro hockey could be? Yeah, I mean, you're expected him to be a top four offenseman at this tournament. Probably's not going to get a power play time on this team, but you're expecting him to is that play 20-so minutes a night, you know, play against good players, you know, uses skating physicality to make a lot of stops.

I expect he probably signs at the end of the season. And then, so he's in the AHAL next year, basically. Yeah, most likely. All right. Andreas Anderson, which Pro League is the best for developing forwards, age 20 and above, defensemen goalies? We could probably, I don't know if the positional specificity matters here. I can kind of jump in on this here.

My answer here is that it's probably going to depend quite specifically by the player, right? Because my inclination is a lot of teams, there's things they would like about having their players in the AHL, not just the proximity and the individual touches that they get, but also there's a certain level of physicality and you're playing on the small ice. You're getting used to different styles of play, but there are circumstances where you could see value in a player staying in a place where they're familiar, especially if you really like the development structure, the organization that they're in, if you think they're going to get a lot more minutes, I suppose, in the SHL or even, you know, maybe the KHL is a little different. Usually they're, they're, they're

staying in the KHL because they want to. But I think you can make different cases for different leagues here depending on the player. Yeah, I think case by case is definitely a thing. I mean, we've talked about this before on a podcast. There's a pretty basic principle when it comes to, you know, human learning that you want to be challenged but not overwhelmed. And for each player, that could be different context.

A player may be challenged in Liga. And another player might find, might find this will be one of the top players, but they might be challenged more in the league. the KHL. One player might be challenged in college hockey, another one might be too good for college and might be a better serving in the American League. There's case by case there too. I've always personally found on a larger scale having issues attributing who develops who better. I've never been able to pinpoint that down. And it's always, because it's, it's tough to prove, I think. I have these discussions all the time when like a player

busts and they say oh well it's because they didn't develop him well and it's like yeah are you sure about that like you know it's i think it's easy to like to like force the connection there and it's like maybe he was always going to bust how do you know like how do you know is how do you know the team didn't develop and well how do you know that if he would have been on any other team or in any other league or whatever he wasn't going to bust you know we don't have access to tools to you know go into different dimensions and see how they would have done in all these different scenario. So I find it tough. I think you see particular examples like you see like say an organization like a Tampa for example that seems to find ways to continually see turn out mid-round picks like okay there's

there's something in the water here. But whether it's teams or leagues in general, I have a hard time figuring out who's actually good or bad at player development as opposed to just identifying talent. Yeah. Jeremy F is curious about the Red Wings Swedish prospects. There are a great many of them and He says, anybody really standing out this season? I guess that conversation has to start with Simon Edvinson. Yeah, I mean, he's a top player and a good team. That's an obvious one. We'll see how his tournament goes.

I got mixed reviews on his U24 Nations. I thought it was good when I watched a video. The scouts were there. I thought it was just more okay, but his Swedish hockey league play undisputably has been excellent for a player his age. We'll see obviously how, you know, he plays at the tournament.

And I think in order for Sweden to medal, along with William Mechlin, Alexander Holtz and Yithper Walsstead, Simon Evanson needs to play out of his mind for them to get a medal because they don't really have a depth. Elmer Soder Bloom, the late-round pick from a few years ago, also having a really excellent season with for one of the same team as Edmondson plays on. Huge guy with really good hands. He can score.

The skating is a problem for the national hockey league. It's why he was a late-round pick. but I think he's kind of shown that he can play pro hockey. He can score in pro hockey. I really like this prospect. I think he's one of the Red Wing stronger prospects. And, I mean, that one's the obvious one. I think people would also want to ask me about William Melinda,

the second round pick who was cut by the U-20 team. And I think they might want to ask why he was cut, because he's a 6-4 defenseman who skates well for his size, showing some offense with Rogla in the S&HL. I think there were some concerns on the defending with him. And I think even though he showed some offense in terms of his scoring, I think just talking to evaluators in Sweden, there was some concern that his puff moving was not that polished and not really a natural offensive type either.

I still probably would have leaned to bringing him, but I didn't think it was unreasonable that they cut him. Well, he wasn't very good. He wasn't very noticeable at all at the summer showcase camp where, you know, a lot of the groundwork laying happens for these teams. But I will say that said, I have heard that he has taken a real. noticeable step in play from that tournament in shl play and you know i don't blame team sweden at all for leaving him home because if it if it didn't happen in your camp you know i don't know that you're

you're going to be inclined to take the benefit of the doubt there on the roster spot but i do think in terms of progress like he he is a guy who i've heard has made some real progress and he didn't play the at the november tournament either and yeah to your point and something we discussed throughout this episode uh those camps are massively important uh you can argue again whether that's the right or wrong process, not just from this year, every year that I've covered this tournament, the summer and the November camps are massively important. Since this is my beat, I'm going to selfishly drag you one step further on that Soderblum point. You talked about kind of his skating being issue at the NHL level. One of the things I've always kind of operated under is that what

players need skating, size, skill, et cetera, for is all generally feeds the same question, which is how to, how do you separate from a defender? And when I look at Soderblum, I agree. is skating is not good, but he does have two of those other elements there. Do you think the skating holds him back, you know, from being an NHL player or more from just being in a top role? Yeah, probably the latter. I think he plays in the National Hockey League, and he will be used in a very specific role, like how he's been used for a lot of his life, with his six, seven, whatever it is frame, you know, he'll be a little net front guy, he'll win battles down low, he'll get a lot of tips and try and clear around the net. But it's not a hundred,

you need skating to play in the national hockey league. Everybody there is a good skater. Everybody, you know, some of them aren't, but it's an issue. It just is. It's a why he was a late round pick. If he was a good skater and at 6-7 and had skill, he would have gone on the top ten. So, you know, those are, it's just going to be a test for him. Doesn't mean he won't succeed.

It's just going to be a test for him when he eventually arrives. All right. on to the next one. Cedric asks, which teams do you believe could be climbing into playoff position this year or next thanks to the growth of their younger players

and which current playoff team you think could miss out in the next two years because of their inability to bring their youth along taking the necessary steps as contributors? That's a good question. I mean, you're kind of like, you know, it's kind of cheating

because you're like, because if you already have the answer, this has been like a preseason answer. If you look at the, you look at the success of like Anaheim and, Troy and it's like yeah like that those are the obvious ones you look at what Trevor Zegris is doing you look at what Lucas Raymond and Moritz cider are doing

you look even Jamie Drysdale I think is gonna be a really excellent player with time you know that's an easy question for me to answer in terms of the ones that would be going the other way that's a trickier one to answer because you don't have you know all the facts ahead of you I think you're you know not picking on someone who's already having a rough year right now Now, you know, I do wonder what the long-term plan is there for the Islanders. They had, you know, obviously they had a lot of success recent years right now not having that success. And they've had, you know, COVID and injury factors affecting them.

So we'll see how their second half goes. But they don't really, you know, they've traded a lot of draft picks in recent years. They don't have the deepest farm system. Team isn't having success right now. And they're, even though I love some of the players on the team, you know, love Matthew Barzell. And I think no adopts and knowledge where Walsham are very good young players. I do wonder what the long-term plan there is to succeed over the next five years if this year is not an outlier year. How about a team that, I mean, I don't know that I think this team drops out of the playoffs, but you'd really like to see Edmonton start working.

And I like some of the prospects at the top of their system, too. Evan Bouchard's kind of carved his place out this year, but they're a team that could really use some high-impact youth coming in right now. Yeah, Dylan Holloway's injury, this season didn't help. I don't know if he would have been on the team right away, but I've been in the mix, Philip Robert. played a couple of games from them this season's having a good year down in Bakersfield. Their inability to draft very well beyond the first round over the last 15 years has been issued for them. We could even go back to the hockey candidate debate.

I think there's people who were a little pertube that Carter Savoy did not get an invite to their camp. I did not think it was unreasonable. You don't usually see a lot of five-nine guys who don't skate that well, get invited to the U-20 camp. unless they're exceptional skill guys. You can argue whether he is or not. He's having a very productive year at Denver.

He has a high skill level. He can score. I think he's a nice prospect. I don't think he's like a top, top end prospect, though. And they just need some of that to, otherwise you're just hoping on your first round picks every year, which is a very slow grind. It's why their rebuild took so long.

They're still a very good team right now. It took a very long time to get it that way. You know, picking high in the first round year over year, you know, and now having, you know, guys like Leon Driesaw become what he's become, guys like Darnar and a nurse becoming what they become. That helped, but when you had Kazanayal Yakupov missed it, set things back, so on and so forth. Only other team I'd want to bring up in this conversation is Pittsburgh, and, you know, they're a different case because they just haven't made the first round picks,

and they actually, you know, they found guys like Kail and Addison outside the first route, and then they trade those guys, too. So they're a team that looks like at some point is heading for a, Detroit, Vancouver style rebuild here. I don't know if it's next year, but it's coming. Yeah, it just a matter of when. And everyone around the organization knows. You don't talk to anybody with the Pittsburgh organization.

Like, no, no, no, we're going to be great for the next 10 years. They know at some point the pain's going to happen, whether it's three years, five years, seven years. However long, you know, Crawled D.M. Mall can continue to be good. And obviously, they have contract issues. They have contracts coming up and we'll see what happens there. but yeah that's that seems it's going to hit you know hit a rocky points at some point here and it's because of their drafting actually that they haven't yes because they found you know guys like jake gensel or john marino or matthew murray in in previous regimes and and so on and so forth

that didn't draft john marina but they acquired him yeah for for a pick you know little things like that have helped stretch out their window far longer than people thought it would reasonably go for. But eventually, it means part of drafting and part of getting prospects is skill, and a large part part of it is luck. And eventually your luck will run out. It's just a matter of when. All right. Happy thoughts here on the athletic country show.

We'll wrap on a fitting one from Grimlock L. Who are your early picks for the World Junior's All-Star team and who are your top three guess is to leave the turning in points. I thought about saving this one for next week's preview episode, but I didn't want to forget. So let's just do it now. Right. I mean, when you're predicting like, Roaching your scoring leaders, the lazy answer is just to pick the team you think is going to win gold and just go through all their best players. So it's easy to say, oh yeah, so just you know, Cole Prafetti, you know, Kent Johnson, Mason McTavish, Gillen, Genther, Owen Power, like those are the obvious, you know, those are the obvious ones right there.

thinking about guys from other teams though if if and this is a big if if you know if Sweden medals William Eklund and Alex Holtz are going to have the week of their lives pretty much and I think those two are going to play a ton of minutes particularly Ecclent I think you're looking at as a guy

who will who has a chance to be really dominant in that tournament I don't think anybody on Russia at least what I can see has the goods to rise that level. I think everyone loves Matt by Mitch Kopp for obvious reasons, but he just turned 17. And while I love the prospect,

that would be a scoring leader here would be unreasonable. So I think, you know, the kinds I mentioned from Sweden would be in the mix. And, you know, I don't think he is the most natural score he'll oversee, but, you know, Matthew Baneers is a guy who would be in the mix there for the United States to play a lot of minutes and potentially score.

And if you want a little dark horse here, you know, I remember going to that February 5 Nation tournament before the world shut down. And one of the leading scorers right behind Act Tuoradi was Jake Sanderson, who was absolutely dominant at that tournament. And he was dominant in the summer of showcase. So he could be a guy who could be, you know, as a defenseman, obviously with power, be a little, you know, maybe a sneaky candidate to be one of the scoring leaders. He's going to get the power play time for it.

He's going to get the overall minutes for it. Both of those two guys you think would. So I like those. A couple of good dark horses. All right, that's going to do it for us today. Thanks for listen to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's prospect series. Subscribe to the Athletic Audio Plus on Apple Podcast to get all the bonus content from our entire network.

It's going to start with a 30-day free trial and then 99 cents a month after that. And right now, annual subscriptions to the Athletic are just $3.99 a month when you visit Theathletic.com slash Hockey Show. You're going to want to get on that in time for the world juniors to read up on all that. We'll talk to you soon.