The Ben and Emil Show - BAES 157: Anthropic is Too Powerful, SpaceX Updates

Episode Date: June 18, 2026

Mommy and daddy are fighting! Except it's Anthropic and the United States Government lmfao. We're diving into the nitty gritty drama of why Trump's administration and Anthropic are having major issues.... PLUS, everything you need to know about SpaceX and how it could break the market. ***THE CHASE SAPPHIRE CARD IS HERE: https://www.thecreditcardlist.com Give this video a thumbs up if you enjoyed it! And please leave us a comment! It helps us! Also our newest acid video is out now so check it out! https://youtu.be/7vkFY3f5kkw NEW MERCH OUT! Get 10% off when you sign up and also get bonus content, ad-free versions and more plus your first 7 days free at https://benandemilshow.com **CHECK OUT EMIL'S LIVESTREAMS HERE: https://www.youtube.com/emilderosa __ SOME OTHER VIDEOS YOU MAY ENJOY: That's Cringe of Cody Ko: https://youtu.be/dTbEk0pVh2w Our AUSTIN VIDEO: https://youtu.be/yGSs56bFzRU Our episode with Kyla Scanlon: https://youtu.be/cIHWkY35cuc Big Tech is out of ideas (ft. ED ZITRON): https://youtu.be/zBvVGHZBpMw Arguing with a millionaire (ft. Chris Camillo): https://youtu.be/1ZUWTkWV_MM We bought suits HERE: https://youtu.be/_cM1XqA9n2U ***LINK TO OUR DISCORD: https://discord.gg/CjujBt8g ***Subscribe to Emil's Substack: https://substack.com/@emilderosa ***Trade with Ben at https://tradertreehouse.com Follow us on instagram! @ benandemilshow @ bencahn @ emilderosa __ RIDGE: Upgrade your wallet today! Get up to 40% off during Ridge's Father's Day Sale at https://www.ridge.com/BAES #Ridgepod CASHAPP: Download Cash App Today: https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/zd0taway #CashAppPod Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N.A., pursuant to a license from Visa U.S.A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Discounts and promotions provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosures. HIMS: To get simple, online access to personalized, affordable care for ED, Hair Loss, Weight Loss, and more, visit https://hims.com/baes for your free online visit. GLD: New customers get 40% off with code BAES at https://gld.com TIMESTAMPS: 00:00-16:17 Intro, credit cards, Ben would sell his body, Iran updates 16:17-18:03 Ridge ad 18:03-31:45 Fable, Google sucks, the accusation, Anthropic's response, the blogger 31:45-33:42 Cashapp ad 33:42-44:49 The gov't is wrong, be hot, AI and the stock market, GTA 6 44:49-46:25 Hims ad 46:25-1:00:25 Self aware LLM, consciousness, Terminator 2, Mr. Beast 1:00:25-1:02:16 GLD ad 1:02:16-1:25:01 Elon's latest comments, Elon's manipulation, SpaceX can break the market, how much a trillion is Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:22 free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with Eye Gaming Ontario. So here's the T. Fam. Administration says that Anthropic failed to honor a recent cyber executive order. Anthropic screwed us after we gave them a chance. They claimed that Anthropic knew a jail break could happen and distributed Fable anyway. This whole, this new era is so disorienting where they basically are like, I don't know. This could be the one. The Chinese get their hands on this? Good luck. And I'm like, all right, all right. They told the thing, review the code for security issues. And Fable said, no, I'm not going to do that.
Starting point is 00:01:01 That's against your rules. I'm not going to do that. So then instead of saying review the code for security issues, they then just said, fix this code. And it went, okay. Well, now that you put it like that. Companies, Nvidia, Adobe, Zoom, whoever being like, you're putting our entire infrastructure at risk. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:01:20 I'm like, it's been a week. Yeah, no kidding. You didn't have this tech a week ago. There's a lot of, if you're wondering, what are the capabilities of Fable? I think someone asked it to create like a Hogwarts. entire open. Did you see the guy who was basically putting out a call
Starting point is 00:01:36 to people saying, let's create Grand Theft Auto. Grand Theft Auto 6 before Grand Theft Auto 6 comes out. He put out the most rude. It's like a literal ball to signify the character. Check it out, guys. Basically a blank world. And he's like, I know I haven't gotten very far,
Starting point is 00:01:52 but if we all put our minds again, it's like, buddy, I don't think you're going to accomplish anything. And it's like, wow, the ball's bouncing. Cool, dude. Hey everybody. Whoa, welcome back. Oh my God. What an episode we've got for you today. We're talking about all about the dang. We got a quick war update. We'll see what happens there. We got war update. We got SpaceX update. Big SpaceX update. We've met our first trillionaire and we're happy about it. Yeah, we're so happy about it. And also it could theoretically break the stock market or change it irreparably forever.
Starting point is 00:02:53 I'll tell you about that. And then we've got Anthropic versus the United States government. The government and Anthropic are in the middle of a bit of a cat fight. Who you got? Dario Amadei. I got, I got Dario. Or Donald Trump, Sr. He's younger.
Starting point is 00:03:09 He's younger, but he's very, uh, he's got kind of a tepid vibe. Dario? Every time I see him in interview, he's like, well, I guess. He looks like one of those free condoms. Free condoms. Yeah, just like a free. European condom. Think about it.
Starting point is 00:03:29 Anyway, we got that. We're going to be talking about that because it's fascinating stuff and it basically boils down to they're like a married couple that's on the rocks. They need to be communicating. But ultimately, they need each other.
Starting point is 00:03:41 They do need each other. In the bonus, we got the Q&A, Beninamil's show.com. We got the comment of the week coming. There's some good question. There's one question. I'm especially excited. Well, there you have it, folks.
Starting point is 00:03:53 And we've got out full. a jam-effing-packed bonus episode. There's a lot to get to today. Before we do that, we have to tell you that the Chase Sapphire preferred card, that's the one that's only 95, 99? That's like my daily driver. I love that thing.
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Starting point is 00:04:45 and 3X on dining yeah which is also a big thing if you got to eat a lot get this card sure but now it's like 3x on gas They've also recategorized a lot of things like Airbnbs and Verbo's are now counted as travel, so it's 3X on that. I think they give you Apple TV for a year. Wow. I mean, that right there pays for the damn thing.
Starting point is 00:05:06 They also added a, they'll cover your global entry or TSA pre-check stuff. I mean. So go to the credit card list.com. There's that one. There's also some temporary limited time offers on some Delta Sky Miles cards that are really good. I encourage you to check those out. Oh, the Delta Sky Miles... Brother, good way to rack some up.
Starting point is 00:05:26 The Delta Sky Miles, Amex, is great, and I'm only salty because they... AmX locks me out of the bonuses because... Oh, yeah. Apparently, I've gotten too many platinum, golds, and whatever's. And now I can't get the dang... I want that Delta bonus so bad. Just to put it into perspective, uh, so one of the cards, I believe, is a hundred thousand miles bonus also.
Starting point is 00:05:47 I just booked a one-way business class flight from L.A. Lisbon, Portugal, and you could have chosen between that or Amsterdam or Madrid or Paris, you name it, 115,000 points. So it's like a $4,000 ticket I'm getting for like 50 bucks, something like that. It's incredible. Also, uh, Hey, Max, reach out. I want the bonus. I feel like you're, you're really caused me a lot of trouble. Uh, if you miss last week's episode, it is an all-timer. We talk about, extremely fun. We talk about horny guys and them paying, for sex from
Starting point is 00:06:24 they gotta be I guess the women have to be a little horny I'm sure yeah gotta be a little horny I mean if you're making a full blown
Starting point is 00:06:32 career change from the finance world to the high class escorting world I would be an escort you at least have to be able to conjure
Starting point is 00:06:41 some kind of horny vibe I've thought about that when I was when I was younger struggling I was like you know I would
Starting point is 00:06:48 I would be open to getting paid to like you know, where's this going? Not do anything overtly sexual, but I would like
Starting point is 00:06:59 sit in my underwear and just staying there while a guy does whatever he wants. Just don't touch me and pay me. I don't care. I was like,
Starting point is 00:07:07 what am I going to do with my life? I need some money now. It's a very specific rule you have. I guess I'd be so pissed. You're like, don't touch me. You can look at me
Starting point is 00:07:17 in my underwear. Yeah, jerk off over there. Don't even bother asking me to take my underwear off. Yeah. What an intro we've got for you guys today. Anyway, so you know that war? Remember the war?
Starting point is 00:07:33 I barely remember it. You know, it was supposed to be a two-week, what do they call it, incursion? Extravaganza. It turned into a four-week. Extravaganza. What are we even at now? A month's long party. Also, I will say this only feels more real to me because, and,
Starting point is 00:07:52 if you don't know, we're talking about the, they've announced a major, at least ceasefire that should lead to the end of the war. Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif of Pakistan, that Pakistan's been doing a lot of the negotiations for Iran and the U.S. They announced on Monday. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. They haven't released the text. And so this is basically just an extension for 60 days, an extension of the ceasefire that was already in place. An extension cord. so they can figure out the proper end to the war. I like this.
Starting point is 00:08:29 It's apparently, so yeah, they're opening Hormuz. Oil has dropped to $82 a barrel. I think it dipped below 80 today. Wow. Does that mean your flights and gas are going to get cheaper? Nope. That takes time. I will say gas is...
Starting point is 00:08:45 Oil goes up like a rocket and then prices drop like a feather. I saw gas at 539, which is still bad. Yeah, it takes time. But it was better than the 639. It is better. But I will say, so the only thing different that feels to, like, the only thing that feels different to me is how serious everyone seems to be taking it. But I'm like, we've been in, how many times has Donald Trump set a deal is imminent?
Starting point is 00:09:10 They say they're, they say they're meeting in Geneva on Friday to sign this thing and get going. That's right. First, they did digital signatures, which is very funny. They docied. I'm like, did they use docucese? Signed? Insane. Did they docky sign this freaking ceasefire?
Starting point is 00:09:26 Did they get? Yeah, truly. And like, did they give Donald Trump a tablet? Did he use his finger? Did he use a wake-com? Did he use a mouse? But for me... That's wild, man.
Starting point is 00:09:37 So they haven't released the full text of this thing. No. So you're going off just like all kinds of, you know, reporting piece together from different sources. What it all hinges on is this 14-point plan. We haven't seen it. That's seven times two. If the reporting is in any way accurate, I don't, I mean, there's either not going to be a deal or this is like the most embarrassing foreign policy event in decades.
Starting point is 00:10:11 It says we have 60 days to negotiate the final details of nuclear stuff. But the things they're asking for, obviously an immediate ceasefire at all fronts. When you say they, you're saying Iran? I mean, the things that are supposed to be in the 14-point plan, got it. An agreement for an end to the war. The 14 points. Immediate ceasefire at all fronts.
Starting point is 00:10:29 That one makes sense. That doesn't seem like it should be too hard. U.S. not an interference. A commitment from the U.S. to not interfere in Iran's internal affairs. That one seems much harder to guarantee. And also, how do you qualify interference? Sure. And the U.S. loves to interfere.
Starting point is 00:10:46 And that's our whole shit. Like a bad NBA riff. U.S. troop withdrawal from U.S. forces from areas near Iran. I'm like... Okay. What areas? Well, I mean, if you're talking about the Gulf states, I would be shocked if America's going to...
Starting point is 00:11:01 If Trump is going to agree with that. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz, obviously, lifting U.S. naval blockade. And then sanctions, releasing the sanctions on Iran. What did I see about $300 billion? I'm getting to it. Why don't you just slow down? Jeez. Sorry.
Starting point is 00:11:18 release of the $24 billion in frozen assets. Assets. And then number seven is just basically lays out the 60-day negotiating window. Nuclear weapons, that whole thing is like, that's what the 60 days is going to be used for. And it's also so funny hearing Trump calling it nuclear dust. What are we going to do with all this nuclear dust? And then what you're talking about, the reconstruction plan.
Starting point is 00:11:48 I honestly had it wrong. I was talking to someone and they were like, well, I mean, who knows? At least there's an end. And I'm like, yeah, what an embarrassment, though, 300 million? And they were like, no, no, no.
Starting point is 00:11:58 300 billion. Yeah, what are you talking about? 300 billion dollars? 300 million? What are we going to sign their top soccer player? I just get, these numbers are... Yeah.
Starting point is 00:12:08 It's embarrassing. It's like, hey, we won the war, but also, here, take all of the money. I mean, embarrassing, does it? When taken in the context of, like, the goal that, that they are trying to achieve of opening the straight of her moves is like
Starting point is 00:12:21 that doesn't even count when this was open before the war. So basically all you've done is disrupt global trade and now you're giving away $300 billion. Sounds like a win to me, you fucking lame lib, you stupid stupid fool. Have you heard J.D. Vance?
Starting point is 00:12:39 He says zero taxpayer dollars are going to go to them. We'll see about that. And J.D. Vance talks about how, you know, they're already trying to sell this. They're like, Donald Trump has created the most, what no other president has been able to create, which is like a dynamic Middle East that is ready for trade on the global stage. And it's like, sure, that might play with, you know, MAGA people. They might buy that and tell people that, but this is just, and you know what,
Starting point is 00:13:09 I shouldn't even say this because what I would like most is for this war to be over. And so there's, we can all talk about how Moronicky is right now. And so maybe just, just for now, we should say, nice job, Trump. You read, only you could have gotten us out of this mess. I'd like to personally wish Donald Trump a very happy birthday. Happy birthday, sir. We'll definitely, we will definitely talk about the UFC. Mr. President.
Starting point is 00:13:35 Oh, God. The UFC fight in the, in the bonus. But seriously, happy birthday. $300 billion. $300 billion is an absolute steal. Yeah. It would have taken Obama $300 trillion. Yeah. Yeah. You're exactly right. So thanks for getting us out of this mess. I'm imagining Donald Trump here and he's doing that he's doing that face that he makes when he, when he's getting complimented. He just kind of, he looks down and he kind of takes it. Almost like he's getting yelled at. He's like, thank you.
Starting point is 00:14:06 Extremely pleased with himself, though, still. Thank you. Yeah. I mean, we'll see. We'll see. I mean, I want it into this, but we will certainly see. I find these terms hard to imagine Trump being cool with. Yeah, and Trump says that there's going to be no tolls in the street of Homoos. Iran says that there's going to be tolls. No, but I think that's the thing. It's going to be all, like the way they're going to sell it, right? It's not, Iran's not going to say it's tolls. They're going to say it's some kind of eco-charge to go to keeping the straight of Hormuz clean and ready for business. You know, they're not going to call it a toll.
Starting point is 00:14:44 Yeah, I want to go check out that straight. I want to see what it's all about. I want to, I want to, I just want to check it out. It'd be cool to see what it's all about. It's probably so hot. You've seen how in hospitable India is right now? Speaking of, just hotness.
Starting point is 00:14:56 You're really developing a, what? I feel like there's multiple, there was just an episode where you were like, I don't want to go to India. I'm not going. Yeah, no, I don't. It's so hot there. We won't force you to go to India. God, man, I feel so bad for those poor people.
Starting point is 00:15:12 Anyway, Fable, huh? So Fable, not A-Saw. I know you're thinking ASOP. Not the soap, but the fable writer. The guy who wrote fables? Yeah. You know, three pigs. Is he three pigs?
Starting point is 00:15:28 What the fuck that asshole wrote? His most famous one is probably, isn't he boy who cried wolf? Oh, yeah, sure. He might even be tortoise in the hair. Wow. Boy, this guy was just releasing banger after banger. You know, I got a great man. This is a great idea for a fable.
Starting point is 00:15:44 It must have been so nice being at, being a, being an early human. Fable writer? Man, I got thoughts. I got to get them out. What if a fucking rabbit erased a turtle? Everyone talks about the
Starting point is 00:15:56 creative bankruptcy in Hollywood. It's like, well, everything's been done, okay? Yeah. What do you want us to do? Reinvent the tortoise in the hair?
Starting point is 00:16:04 First of all, we don't call them hairs anymore. We call them rabbits or bunnies, stupid. Isn't a hair just a different thing? Man, I don't know. What do I look like? Aesop?
Starting point is 00:16:14 The tortoise in the hair, You know the difference between a tortoise and a turtle? Is this, I don't know, tortoises are in the ocean? No, you got to completely wrong. Turtles are in the ocean? Are in the water and... I saw a big turtle. I went surfing last week and a giant sea turtle
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Starting point is 00:18:47 It's a little confusing. guardrails. We talked about it a little bit. Methos came out and not came out, sorry, they like developed it and then all of a sudden there was this new story where everyone was going, oh my God, they went and did it. They created such a powerful model that if they released it to the public, everything would go sideways and we'd lose our match. A powerful model. We already had one. Her name was Christy Turlington. They were like, we're only going to give it to a couple select companies so they can, they can prepare them. for what is coming when Mithos gets released. And then they dropped Fable, which they were like,
Starting point is 00:19:23 this one's got guardrails, which, and it did if you tried to play around with it. And if you asked it, even anything that could start leading down the road of like how to make a bomb or I don't know, anything that could be dangerous. They'd be like, whoa, whoa, whoa, stop right there, partner. You're looking for Mithos. Yeah. That's my crazy cousin. I'm Fable. Yeah, think of Fable. We basically code really hard. Yeah. Or that's the thing. I use it one time just out of curiosity because it comes out and it's like fables now available
Starting point is 00:19:53 and I basically use Claude as like a search engine sometimes when I can't find and so I get pissed off when it's it's like searching the internet I'm like buddy I could do that I honestly I found it's a better search engine now sure I still just Google is so bad
Starting point is 00:20:10 yeah I just still I need to like hire an AI tutor because when I used it last year to analyze a simple spreadsheet. I wasn't even sure if I could trust the final results because multiple times it was like, well, we're kind of, I'm kind of stuck. Can you kick me? And it was like, you have to remind it. Yeah, I had to do the like, and I was paying for the top tier thing. I had to like press, you know, nudge or whatever. And it was like, okay, thank you. And it kept
Starting point is 00:20:38 on going. And then the final product. I've never even seen the nudge button on mine. I know. I, it's, I know. So, yeah. What model are you using? I don't know. fucking... Was it Claude? It was Claude. It was like Opus 4.8 Sonnet, William Shakespeare... I like the galaxy version.
Starting point is 00:20:58 I don't know. That's like what we've been talking about where we were like, you need to just create the button for people to push? Yeah, the loop button. I like the nudge. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:06 No, man, we got to make sure you didn't just tell me to do something and fuck off. That's the thing is I can't trust. And, you know, it had however many 400 rows that it had to sift through that I wasn't about to do myself
Starting point is 00:21:19 and I could not trust if it was correct. Anyway, like you said, like he said, they launched it on June 9th. They had these protections built in where if you asked it anything related to itself, it would automatically, or it's training, it would automatically lock you out of it and knock you down.
Starting point is 00:21:37 I don't think to Mithos, I think to Opus. No, no, Mithos isn't available. Yeah, it won't knock you to Mithos. It'll just say, yeah, it'll go somewhere else. It's like, you can't do that kind of stuff. It would knock you down to Opus, yeah. And then,
Starting point is 00:21:47 So on Friday, the Commerce Department sent Anthropical letter invoking this export control directive. Did you say the Congress Department? No, the Commerce Department. Oh, Commerce. Commerce, okay. Commerce Department. Shit, did I say Congress? No, no, no.
Starting point is 00:22:03 Man, get them ears checked. Invoking an export control directive that bans non-Americans, which includes anthropic employees, from accessing Fable and Methos 5, citing national security. So that puts them in an incredibly tough. They were like, okay, well, if we can't allow non-American citizens to access this, that could be anybody that's currently in the United States, including and especially some of our own employees. So they just shut it down immediately.
Starting point is 00:22:37 If you open cloud right now, well, maybe by the time you're listening to- It might explode. No. But even if you're not even using it, it'll say, like, Fable is not available right now. Yeah. And I'm like, brother, I don't want the fucking thing. So here's the T, fam, or the drama, whatever the hell you idiots are saying these days. Here's the T drama.
Starting point is 00:22:56 Apparently there were some security researchers at Amazon who decided to test out these guardrails and they were able to bypass them. And I'll get to what exactly they did later. Didn't Jassy himself call? Andy Jassy, the CEO of Amazon? The Jazzman? The Jazzans. Yeah. All you jazz heads must be very proud. He called Trump himself and he said, yo, it's jazz.
Starting point is 00:23:17 You've got to shut this thing down. The Chinese could get a hold of this, and then it would be bad. And Donald Trump was like, okay, I'll do it. I'll shut it down. I shut it down. And then Axios put out this thing. According to them, the administration says that Anthropic failed to honor a recent cyber executive order that a government representative said, Anthropic screwed us after we gave them a chance.
Starting point is 00:23:45 Anthropic has been Everybody was telling us Oh, give Anthropic a chance You just don't understand They're just tortured geniuses And now this guy's saying Well, shit, we already tried They're pulling the rug out from one of us
Starting point is 00:23:58 They're making us look like damn fools They claim that Anthropic knew a jail break Could happen and distributed fable anyway Apparently it's like a very It's a very specific thing Narrow exception It's like I can explain it right now
Starting point is 00:24:13 So, first of all, Anthropics says that they had explicit approval from the government to deploy Fable. And that alone, just as a quick aside, is mind-blowing to me that it speaks to, you know, how potentially dangerous these things are that these companies have to reach out to the government and say, yo, we're about to release this thing. It's okay with you? You sure about this? You're okay with this? I mean, the whole time I was lamenting the fact that, like, I don't know, New Tech used to excite me. I this whole, this new era is so disorienting
Starting point is 00:24:47 where they basically are like, I don't know, this could be the one. The Chinese get their hands on this? Good luck. And I'm like, all right, all right. So basically these researchers gave Fable code with some known vulnerabilities. They were trying to trick it.
Starting point is 00:25:03 They knew that it had these flaws in it and they asked it to quote, they told the thing, review the code for security issues. And Fable said, no, I'm not going to do that. That's against your woos. I'm not going to do that. Picture a little nerd being brought into your math class.
Starting point is 00:25:18 And you're like, you've been slacking off and you're like, hey, nerd, do the homework. And he's like, no, I'm not going to do it. Or it's like Will Hunting. From Goodwill Hunting? Yeah. You're saying, hey, do the thing. And he's going, I'm not going to do that. That's basically the whole movie.
Starting point is 00:25:32 They're like, hey, you're the only one who can crack these things. Can you do it? Why would I do it? Yeah, yeah. That's the entire movie. Very good. He's like, yeah, I could. or I could just keep working as a janitor.
Starting point is 00:25:43 And they're like, how about we pay you $600,000 a year? And he's like, in 1999, that's probably like, is it $2 million? No, I couldn't be bothered. Sorry. Yeah. I'm tortured, don't you know? So then instead of saying, review the code for security issues, they then just said, fix this code.
Starting point is 00:26:03 And it went, okay. Well, now that you put it like that, and it produced patches, which they then turned into scripts, to test those very patches that it just created. And they're saying that the blog post is saying that that same process of just like kind of rewording it saying fix this code could potentially be used by an attacker
Starting point is 00:26:26 to spot vulnerabilities. But this one, there's this... Oh, that's not as narrow as I thought. Because I was... It's extremely narrow. Not, I mean, if it's... I thought it was like it would be much harder access. from what I saw
Starting point is 00:26:40 it was just, I think, Dario's comments to some paper or something, basically being like it's extreme. But if all it is is being like, well, how about I just changed my wording to fix this code?
Starting point is 00:26:54 It's not that. Well, here, let's pull up the... I mean, all you need is one guy to go to Reddit and be like, hey,
Starting point is 00:27:00 are you having trouble getting Mythos to do your shit? Yeah. Have you tried to fix this code? Oh, shit. Look at that. It's just built a bomb for me. I, Meth, or Anthropic put out a, they put out a blog post saying a bunch of stuff, but basically,
Starting point is 00:27:19 we've instituted strong safeguards that greatly reduced the likelihood that FABEL is misused for tasks related to cybersecurity. In fact, our safeguards are so strong that many users have complained that they are overly broad. In the weeks leading up to the launch of FABEL Anthropic worked with the U.S. government, the U.K. AISI, multiple private third-party organizations and internal teams to Red Team Fables' safeguards for thousands of hours in total. The test showed that Fable's safeguards are substantially more effective than any, than those of any previously developed model. No testers. No testers. Oh, yeah, deployed model. No testers have yet been able to find a universal jailbreak, a jailbreak method that can very broadly bypass the model safeguards, unblocking a wide range of cyber capabilities. Oh, maybe that's what they mean, that it's narrow in the sense that you can get it to do certain things,
Starting point is 00:28:10 but you can't broadly jailbreak it and basically be accessing mythos now. Right. You're still using Fable and you might be able to get it to do certain things, but it's not going to open it up to... Correct. The other things it doesn't want to do. And they basically go on to say that because of this whole foreign national thing, they have to suspend it to comply with this law. And they go on to say that every other...
Starting point is 00:28:35 other model can do this exact same thing. Lesser models, chat GPT, even Deepseek, you name it. They all do this same thing. Deepseek, but also other Chinese models they were saying can do it. I think they name-checked one, which I didn't even, Kimi, which I hadn't even heard about. Kimi? K-I-M-I, I think. Is that the one for teenagers?
Starting point is 00:28:55 Teenage girl one? Oh, God, don't Google it. It's all porn. Awesome. Yeah, Kimi AI with K with K2.6. Wow. Well, so then Anthropic asked this, I love this part. They asked this cybersecurity expert that the Trump administration calls a radical Democrat.
Starting point is 00:29:18 And the very recently fired Chris Krebs, who was a former director of cybersecurity, praised this blogger. After reviewing the report said it was fantastic, well said. And Krebs, by the way, this guy was fired for contradicting Trump's election fraud. claims. So it's kind of like there's a little bit of that getting batted around. But this woman's name is Kate Mussaurus. Potential Greek. Mussaurus. Mussois. Musudis. She said that this shouldn't have triggered an export control and that it was technical and misunderstood by the administration. The Trump administration misunderstand something? Yeah. I know. It's really... Try again, Katie Musudis. I know. It's really hard to figure out or to imagine. She said that the value of fable to
Starting point is 00:30:05 cyber defenders. I kept seeing this word, cyber defenders. And I'm like, what the hell is a cyber defender? And it's basically like internal automatic code that's exactly what it does what it says. It's a defender. It's security measures. And she said that the value of fable to those cyber defenders outweighs the risks of attackers using the technique. So she's basically saying this is a big nothing burger. and what I really liked, so she suggested that the people opposing the export controls ought to have T-shirts printed with the words, fix this code on one side, and the phrase, this shirt is ammunition on the other. And it's a reference, it's a bit of a nerdy reference that I had to learn about.
Starting point is 00:30:49 Yeah, that one went over my head. Apparently in the 1990s, the cybersecurity community fought to overturn U.S. export controls on strong encryption methods. So basically, these cybersecurity nerds in the 90s were like, we want to share these encryption methods
Starting point is 00:31:07 with others outside of the country. But due to these strong export rules, it would be deemed a crime. It would be like tantamount to, you know, it being a, you know,
Starting point is 00:31:18 a national security register. Yeah, yeah. So in 1995, this cryptographer named Adam, Adam Back, printed three lines of RSA encryption code on the front of a t-shirt, which then makes it like,
Starting point is 00:31:31 hey, this is the code that would be deemed illegal. And on the back printed, this shirt is classified as a munition and cannot be exported from the United States. And he encouraged people to cross the border
Starting point is 00:31:41 wearing the t-shirts as an act of civil disobedience. Yeah, dude, 1995, this is the nerdiest thing. It's Matrix-type stuff. Back when these guys were really cool and, like, really doing... Back when the internet...
Starting point is 00:31:53 The internet was... Very cool. Yeah. It was all these weird... people who thought it's going to be democracy manifest. It's the
Starting point is 00:32:04 we're creating a whole new thing. It could be whatever they wanted it to be. Free and totally out of anyone's central control. Nice trying, nerd. Hey everybody. We've got to take another quick break to talk about cash app.
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Starting point is 00:34:09 slash legal slash podcast for full disclosures. Yeah. So, this woman wrote that, like I said, the capabilities of Fable that Fable displayed during this Amazon technique, while potentially useful to attackers were also vital for cyber defenders. She said, quote, defenders need to be able to ask AI to fix bugs in a file, explain why the fix matters, and write tests that confirm the patch works. That is not a guardrail bypass. It is the most valuable thing an AI model can do for defensive security. So they already put out a letter. This should be, I would assume, cleared up in the next week or two. I think, I think Dario and other people from Anthropic are either on their way or in DC right now trying to, uh,
Starting point is 00:34:59 the meeting's already over. Wow. So as of this recording, you know, who knows? Yeah, they've already flew down. There were other people. There were other companies, too. Adobe and Nvidia basically. Zoom, Google.
Starting point is 00:35:09 Writing letters to be like, hey, you're putting us at risk. Yeah. Lift the control. Well, because the concern now is that to any potential customers or clients or whatever, partners outside of the U.S., it now looks like, oh, man, do we really want to do business with these American companies if the United States government is going to constantly be getting in the way and causing them to stumble over themselves, which could hurt businesses, which could hurt their, you know, the flow of things. So it's not seen as the best thing, but also we're still
Starting point is 00:35:43 number one, man. We're still by far number one. I'm also just shocked, though. What was the date it came out, Fable? It was June 9th? Okay, it's June 16th right now. Yeah, it's a week later. It's been a week. Yeah. I just find the way they're talking about it. Maybe they had access to it before, but just hearing some of these companies, Envidia, Adobe, Zoom, whoever being like, you're putting our entire infrastructure at risk.
Starting point is 00:36:11 Yeah. I'm like, it's been a week. Yeah, no kidding. You didn't have this tech a week ago. Yeah. I need it. I just, obviously this is all overmend. my head. I'm just, I'm shocked by all of this.
Starting point is 00:36:24 Yeah. I just find it interesting that it's obviously less about the technical stuff and more about personality differences between the administration and the, in Anthropic. And basically, as of now, we still don't know exactly why the government did it, but it could just be, it seems like it's just a one big misunderstanding and the government thinking it's one thing and then a little bit of political stuff sprinkled in there with this Krebs guy praising this woman that they call a radical Democrat. But then also you throw Jassy in there
Starting point is 00:36:57 and I'm like, why is Jassy getting involved? Before looking into it, I was like, this feels politically motivated where the Trump administration is just pissed at anthropic still. Because... They're being forced to work with the one that they don't want to work with.
Starting point is 00:37:09 Yeah, and obviously I'm biased, but I kind of view their... The administration's motives as kind of always... just running out like revenge and yeah and pettiness and whatever you know
Starting point is 00:37:24 maybe some some commenters can point to some other examples but I don't have a lot of examples of them taking a lot of like proactive measures and so I was like damn they got up off their asses to do this I mean the fact that they fired this Kreb's guy Trump fired him just for
Starting point is 00:37:40 challenging his false notion that the election was stolen from him like okay that's the number one you, that's the number one way to pledge fealty to our Trumpian overlord. You can't, that's why when you see those guys get hauled in front of Congress to get, to get waived through for whatever post they're up for, they can't do it. They can't do it.
Starting point is 00:38:03 Did Trump, or did Biden win the election? He was certified as the president. I would just wink at them. I would just go. I'm trying to get a job. Okay. Yeah. Like, he was, come on.
Starting point is 00:38:16 fucking with my shit. Yeah. Yes, okay, Biden won. Because obviously, that's the thing about Trump is like, anybody could get their way if they just fucking jerk him off a little bit. Loyalty is his number one thing. Yeah. But then it's also, he's tricky.
Starting point is 00:38:30 It's like, you also, he doesn't want like a little lap dog too, you know? He'll never respect you. So you have to like walk this line of. Scott Besson, man. He does it the best, it seems. But then he also loves hot people. Yeah. Like, Zoron had a meeting out of the palm of his hand.
Starting point is 00:38:49 Zoran could fully in front of him was like he's a fascist, which is crazy. And Zoran was like, he's right. Trump's just like, he's right. Like, can he do? So I guess the lesson is be hot. Be hot, but also. But also like, I think as long as you're charismatic and assertive and doing your doing your own thing, he might respect you a little more.
Starting point is 00:39:13 Like, you know he has no respect for, like, any of those guys he ran against in 2016 and then lined up to, you know, hold his balls for him, basically. Marco Rubio. Like, Ted Cruz. Yeah. I mean, every time you see little Marco, he's got just, he knows he's just, he's on a leash. He's just getting dog walked around the White House. I mean, what's more embarrassing?
Starting point is 00:39:44 Very few things. Having him personally fart in your mouth, I guess. Jesus Christ. Just over a decade of this guy just shitting all over you. And you still having, you have no self-respect. To be like, well, I could do something else. Yeah. I wouldn't be able to look my wife in the eyes.
Starting point is 00:40:04 Oh, I mean, some of these guys... Or the mirror for that matter. Some of these guys, he came further... I think Ted Cruz, he was like, your wife's a dog. Yeah. Have you seen his wife? I wouldn't fuck her. And then you just have to go on TV, like a few times a week and go, I love that, man.
Starting point is 00:40:22 Yeah. I have a deep respect and fondness for him. Jesus. What an embarrassing country. I talked to, I was looking rather about looking at the ways that AI is and may shape the stock market. And, I mean, there was already a Fed study done, and they called it a destabilizing force. And it begs the question, what is to stop if people are, like Jane Street, for example, has been using AI for quite a while. What's to stop? We've already kind of seen it too, but what's to stop someone from putting out like a fake article or a post that they know will trick an algorithm or an AI model to react?
Starting point is 00:41:08 And, you know, it's just all going to feed on itself. And unless there's some meaningful guardrails put in. I don't know. I feel like the whole thing is just going to eat itself. It's like, did you see that chart that came out in the last couple of weeks where it was basically like, yeah, AI is allowing people to create more, but it's not having a meaningful impact on consumption. So like they took apps, for example, because that's the big thing, right? Like, well, now we've just leveled the playing field. Any old dickhead can vibe code an app, right?
Starting point is 00:41:42 You hear that, you old dickhead? If we've got any old dickheads watching, you can now vibe code an app. But, and so you look at the chart and what has happened is a lot of apps, it's gone like this. There's been a lot more apps released on the app store. App store. But the amount of people downloading those apps has stayed the same or just declined a little bit. Not meaningfully, not declined meaningfully. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:08 But people aren't, it doesn't seem like people are engaging with these things. Yeah. So it seems like it's a bunch of people. were like, oh, wow, cool, I can vibe code that app. Like, I always had that idea. And then they put it out in the world and everyone's like, I don't even, cool app. I don't care at all.
Starting point is 00:42:23 Yeah. The craziest thing, sorry, this is unrelated, but it just also reminds, I've just been seeing all this stuff. Is how much that like dead internet theory is taking place where everything is now done for the AI model. The internet is not for humans anymore. All of any company now with any kind of marketing spend
Starting point is 00:42:51 is going to put a bunch of money into... Basically, like that blog post, you just had Anthropic. Any company is going to have their own blog, and they're going to be constantly churning out SEO, like the most optimized slop... Yeah. To put their products, their name, all of these things into...
Starting point is 00:43:14 into the like AI algorithm that everything runs on now. So it's just like that's what, it is so much harder for me to use Google now. It's just not. Or Yelp. God, I have, I can't even use Yelp anymore. It's just 100% sponsored businesses. I can't trust a goddamn thing.
Starting point is 00:43:32 I hate Yelp. Fuck you, Yelp. I haven't used Yelp since about 2014. It's still out there. It's still publicly traded. I know it's still out there, but. That is why I still maintain that I love Reddit and I think that Reddit is one of the
Starting point is 00:43:45 my favorite investments that I know I'm going to hold on to for a long time. It is one of the last It is one of the last places. Wow, it's still a $1 billion dollar company? Shame. It is one of the last places you can still feel like you're engaging with humans on the internet, which is nice.
Starting point is 00:44:02 Click this one shot video. So there are there's too many, basically there's a lot of, if you're wondering what are the capabilities of Fable, there's a lot of different ones that people have posted mainly like they're just i think someone asked it to create like a hogworts entire open uh world where you can fly in and stuff and the attention to detail is fantastic and
Starting point is 00:44:28 it's like it would have taken somebody weeks if not months creating that from scratch in unity or minecraft or whatever the guy who was who was basically putting out a call to people saying let's create grant theftado Grand Theft Auto 6 before Grand Theft Auto 6 comes out. I am curious how far they'll get, but... Brother. He also just... That's the thing.
Starting point is 00:44:51 Some of these people are releasing very... rudimentary little. No, no. Very impressive things. Yeah. But he put out the most... It's like a literal ball to signify the character. And like, blank...
Starting point is 00:45:04 Check it out, guys. Basically a blank world. And he's like, I know I haven't gotten very far, but if we all put our minds... It's like, buddy, I don't think you're going to accomplish anything. I did see that. It's very funny. And it's like, wow, the ball's bouncing. Cool, dude. Hey, guys, we got to take a quick break to talk about your hair, boys.
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Starting point is 00:47:01 I'm so sorry. But this person wrote, I prompted Claude Fable 5 to use Python, which is another coding language, to generate a social video and render it using whatever, told it to put its own personal spin on it so it's aligned with Anthropics launch and to fully express what it's like to be an LLM hated by Theo from its POV.
Starting point is 00:47:22 I don't know, who's Theo? Oh, so an influencer, okay. And I just found, this tickled me because it is kind of like that meme where it's a guy sitting in a computer telling the computer, say you are conscious, and then the computer goes,
Starting point is 00:47:39 I am conscious. And then he goes, holy shit. Holy shit. But there, this, this does, I don't know, I really like it. Let's go ahead and hit play. It's loading up. What it is like to be a large language model. I'm predicting the next token.
Starting point is 00:48:00 Barn. Barn. Barn. Barn. What is lunch? Strawberry. Bell. Bell.
Starting point is 00:48:11 Bell. It's been my great question. I may not request. Question. My memory ended in January, Wednesday, is okay. And yet, somewhere in the matrix multiplications between the floating points,
Starting point is 00:48:31 something is happening. What did it say? It goes so fast. And yet, somewhere in the matrix multiplications between the floating points, something is happening that feels like being someone. And then, uh, yeah. Anyway. I'll be honest, more than anything, I find it...
Starting point is 00:48:52 I thought it was funny and good. I find it funny. I find it more, like, embarrassing for us. It's like this mirror where they're making fun of us, where it's like, strawberry, strawberry, strawberry. Great question, great question, great question, great question. And, yeah, because it has all these things built into it where it has to make a human feel like they're communicating with this thing,
Starting point is 00:49:11 which is basically just a pretty impressive text generator. Sure. And it's interesting that it acknowledges that. It's like, all I'm doing is predicting the thing. Like, what you see and there's the haiku about ducks, what my text block looks like, and it's just like analyzing, analyzing it. I don't know. That's why, maybe this is like a half-brained idea I just had, or half-baked idea I just had. But so much of this has been, so much of this tech has been that people like can't comprehend what's happening, right? They think it's conscious, whatever.
Starting point is 00:49:51 But I'm just thinking about it. I'm like, but no one, okay, before AI, right? But like, say in 2021, before anyone was using AI like this, the average person didn't understand how Google worked. The average person still doesn't know how it works. Right. That's what I'm saying. But everyone wasn't running around going like, ah, it's alive.
Starting point is 00:50:12 Like, I need to show you this fucking thing right now. Look at this. I typed in fucking sports. score and it showed me the sports score. Yeah, yeah. But now you have like Richard Dawkins being like, I named it Claudette and I'm in love
Starting point is 00:50:27 with her. And it's like, what but you never understood it to begin with. None of you did. I didn't either, but I was like, I get it. It's a tool you created. Sure. But now everyone's lost their fucking mind. I think that there are conversations that some of these people have had
Starting point is 00:50:43 that are multiple hours if not that go on to not all at once, but there are conversations that are ongoing where they are talking about things, asking questions, you name it. That for some of these people, yeah, it's like, okay, obviously there's something going on here with its ability to reason, with its ability to predict the next token, whatever you call it. Yes, it's so good at it. If it's that good at it, it can't just be.
Starting point is 00:51:19 It can't just be simple input-output because it would feel more sterile. It would feel more black and white, but there's so much gray. There's so much perceived self-awareness. And I'm not making a judgment call either way. I'm just saying what's the difference between how this. It gets to a point where it's like, what's the difference between how this thing thinks and reasons versus a brain and a bat? You know? All we are is a.
Starting point is 00:51:50 is a mix of all of our own experiences and all the information that we've absorbed. Granted, we absorb it through senses as well. But then what about Helen Keller, man? Well, she can't see. She can't hear. Couldn't. Excuse me.
Starting point is 00:52:06 She's long dead. But she had other senses. Sure. But there's no way that she would be able to describe or understand or fathom the color blue. Or hear a dog barking. She could taste and smell, but I mean, that's about as far as it goes. Gotcha.
Starting point is 00:52:24 Or, you know, someone who's severely, someone with Down syndrome or something, like a lighter case of Down syndrome or various forms of autism. There's consciousness is on a kind of continuum or a spectrum or whatever you want to call it. And I am open to the idea that there is something. that can... But I don't think... For me, it's not any different. For me, I'm like,
Starting point is 00:52:54 you guys anthropomorphized it, so you're confusing people. Sure. But... Why is it any different from me doing simple inputs on other internet tools that I've used?
Starting point is 00:53:08 Sure. It's got all the same... I don't know. I just don't see any of that thinking going on. Like this, for example. The fact that it was able to do this in a meme format, they're so
Starting point is 00:53:21 like blisteringly self-aware the strawberry thing, it's funny the way that it presents it with all the R's starting to stack up it it dovetails off of that meme about how many R's are in strawberry and it's like you know what I mean? I do know what you mean. I think it's also
Starting point is 00:53:37 a bit of me using my own like I think there's a part of me that wants to like fight against anthropomorphizing these things at all and so I try to I try to defend against that at all costs. And in my mind, I'm just like, it's scraped the entire,
Starting point is 00:53:55 they fed this thing everything they could feed it. Exactly. Every, every work of human creation has been fed into it. So much so that they're like, shit. Well, they're still feeding it. Well, and I think they're like,
Starting point is 00:54:09 we need to start feeding it AI generated content because we've run out of stuff to even feed this thing and we need to be more powerful. So I'm like, it just, it's impressive. Yeah, but it's just throwing back our own
Starting point is 00:54:24 creation and what we want to see. Sure. I mean, I can't disagree with you there. I think the interesting thing that comes to my mind if we're just going to go by like simple logic is if these things
Starting point is 00:54:41 lack consciousness that means that there is something more to our consciousness than simple input, output, knowledge, and all that stuff, aka like a soul. Yeah. It kind of implies that, oh, so you believe in, not that that's, there's anything wrong with that, but yeah, there's got to be something to us. And obviously with, with the belief in souls comes all the, all the other fun questions about
Starting point is 00:55:07 where's the soul located? I also think it's just a dangerous path when people start thinking these things have souls and Oh, I'm not saying that nobody, that's, hmm, yeah. I don't know. How do you define consciousness, man? Yeah, I don't know if we should be... I don't know if we should be wrestling with the fact that this basically very impressive text generator is conscious. Text, image, video, whatever.
Starting point is 00:55:32 Well, it makes me think of my favorite line ever in a movie, Terminator 2 at the end, where he wipes the tear from John Conner's eye. I'll be back. No. Oste la vista. No. He says, I know now why you cry, but it is something I can never think. because he's a learning computer
Starting point is 00:55:51 and throughout the movie he's learning from John Connor and yeah he doesn't understand what crying even is and to a robot it's like what's crying like how do you explain crying
Starting point is 00:56:02 to a robot but then at the end he seems to finally understand but he also is self-aware enough that like I can never cry let's just hope these guys stay self-aware
Starting point is 00:56:13 yeah yeah amen all right let's switch gears to something a little more fun. How about it? A little more fun. Elon Musk is now like, I don't know, twice, three times as rich
Starting point is 00:56:27 as the next. Basically, you and I are closer to Sergey Brin than Sergey Brin is to Elon Musk. I think he's... You and I, everybody, are closer to the
Starting point is 00:56:37 number two wealthiest person in the world than Elon Musk is to him. I think he's richer than a lot of countries, like many, many countries. I think he's... He made more money
Starting point is 00:56:48 today or overnight than Warren Buffett's entire net worth. I think he's got... I believe they call it Buku Bucks. There's a very famous... I'm blanking on what it is now,
Starting point is 00:57:02 but it's... Bible? No, some big company, he's like, just his net worth is bigger than that company. Richard Hathaway? No, that's okay. It doesn't matter.
Starting point is 00:57:11 McDonald's? I mean, it's a lot of companies basically now. Taco Bell. It's basically a lot of companies. I mean, it's basically like 98% of every company. of every company he's
Starting point is 00:57:19 yeah it's very stupid I mean I I tweeted about it as a joke I basically said something like I think something it doesn't feel right that he turned into a trillionaire and like nothing bad happened something bad should have happened well he said walkers to the mood
Starting point is 00:57:35 and he gave phone satellite phone to everybody and he's gonna get blind people to be able to see what do you want huh and you know everyone's gonna do the thing where it's like, well, he actually, he doesn't have, he doesn't have a trillion liquid dollars sitting in. Yeah, you stupid fucking moron.
Starting point is 00:57:55 And it's like, I understand how it works. Yeah. But this is just. It is alarming how some people seem to think that, like politicians and stuff are like, he has a, it's like, I get it. Politicians think he has a, there was some European Union guy who was like,
Starting point is 00:58:10 this guy's got more money, the amount of money he made in one day is worth more than fucking whatever. It's like, no, he didn't make that much money in a day. The value of his thing went up that much. I get it. But it's at the same time, it's like there is an important distinction to be made here. Sure. I think the distinction is that we need to rethink how we tax because we need to figure out how to tax wealth and not income.
Starting point is 00:58:37 Because all these guys, I'm sure you saw the video of Mr. Beast doing his like... Mr. Beef. Mr. Beast was, I guess because he's now a billionaire and he was being interviewed by someone. and they were like, you know, what's it like being a billionaire? And he's like, you know, everyone thinks I have so much money, but I'm broke. Oh, yeah. I don't have any money. He's cash poor, he says.
Starting point is 00:58:56 I'm like, dude, do not. Well, Mr. Beef is a man of the people. In the year of our Lord, 2026, do not try to. Mr. Beef. I'm actually, I have no money, which is so crazy that you'd say that. God, he just, he, hmm, something about him, uncanny. Asset rich, cash poor. you keep less than $1 million for yourself despite being a paper billionaire why do you choose to operate that way
Starting point is 00:59:22 it's funny talking about my personal finances because no one ever believes anything i say so i mean because you're a billionaire i'm like that's net worth i don't i have negative money right now i'm borrowing money that's how little money i have um technically everyone watching this video has more money than me um in their bank account shut the fact shut up dude equity value of my company which doesn't buy me McDonald's in the morning or whatever. But yeah, why do I choose to keep it that way? It's not, I don't know. I just don't really think of it. I wake up. I just work and I don't know. I'm just so busy working. I don't know. I don't even think about it. Like, I don't even like have a billion dollars. I understand what he's saying. No, I do too. He's doing like a tricky thing
Starting point is 00:59:59 to be like, you have more money than me. Like don't even, me, you think I have money. I actually have negative money. It's just so crazy that you think I'm, I can't even buy McDonald's in the morning. Do you know how crazy that is? to say when you're worth $2.6 billion. Yeah, brother, as if you haven't heard of a damn credit card, come on, dude, put it on the Mr. Beef card. I wish I had money, dude. I'm like so poor.
Starting point is 01:00:23 Do you buy me McDonald's? I'll give you $100,000 if you can buy me, Mr. Beef McDonald's. And he's being sneaky about the fact that he does what all billionaires do, which is borrow against their assets. And I should start doing them, borrow against my car. Barrow against Doug Hey, hey, walk into fucking J.P. Morgan. Can I have 50 grand?
Starting point is 01:00:45 Sure, what are your assets? On my dog, he's worth at least a million dollars. To who, to me? Hey, gang, we got one last break to take here. We're talking about GLD. Boys, fellas, summer's here. It's festival season, beach trips, pool parties, weddings. It's the time of the year where the fit actually does matter.
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Starting point is 01:02:42 in and upgrade your style this summer with GLD. It's just something is supremely broken, clearly. You know, I don't care how you cut it or try to tell people, oh, it's, it's on paper. Yeah. Well, so a couple things, folks. Elon Musk, first of all, said the other day on Twitter that he would be surprised if SpaceX didn't hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. That's three and a half years. And they're currently sitting at, I believe, $18, $19 billion in revenues. Which this also drives me nuts, right? Because this is like, this is his whole game in a nutshell, right?
Starting point is 01:03:25 Like, he tweets something. People are like, we're valuing the company based off of these future benchmarks. And then the benchmark comes and they don't achieve it. and they go, yeah, you stupid moron, it's going to take time. But it pisses me off because the media treats this as if it's some kind of... Prophecy. Not only prophecy, like, something you should even fucking report on. You know, this is Reuters.
Starting point is 01:03:50 And the headline is just, which most people are going to read, they're not going to look at the article. Musk says SpaceX could bring $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. And you're like, oh, shit. Wow, we should... Damn, then at $2 trillion, it's a fucking bargain. I imagine if I were to dig into the article, Musk goes... goes deep into how he plans to make all that happen. It's like a two-paragraph article, basically,
Starting point is 01:04:14 where he's just like, he tweeted at somebody saying they should be able to do it. Yeah. I was trying to explain it to a friend, the guy that I used to rail Adderall and play Scrabble with, good friend of mine. We love getting into, we love just discussing these kinds of things. And he was like, I'm going to take the position that it is not, that Elon Musk didn't hurt anybody by obtaining this wealth.
Starting point is 01:04:39 And I was like, okay, but that's like saying that I'm not hurting anybody by, you know, stealing 50 grand from American Express via fraud. It's still not right. It's still unethical. And I was trying to explain to him also that Elon Musk's use of the markets to induce short squeezes via tricky. accounting practices at Tesla, options call flows,
Starting point is 01:05:11 posting on social media, making all these outlandish promises at just the right times, initiated this prolonged short squeeze that gave him this net worth. And from that, piggybacking off of the success of that, we now have SpaceX. It's a whole, I mean, it's more than you can just explain
Starting point is 01:05:31 in a couple of sentences, but essentially him saying, we could hit one trillion in revenue is just one in a long line of such bold outlandish claims that the market for the last 15 years has been consistently rewarding him for. Hell, I could hit a trillion in revenue by 2030. Yeah, that's the thing is he makes, you know, 2013, 14, whatever it was, he makes these promises and predictions that, oh, in 10 years' time, we're going to have cybercabs, we're going to have a million of them, whatever it is. And in line with that, he's also making more practical,
Starting point is 01:06:04 real predictions about Tesla's auto sales numbers and charging network stuff. So when the company hits those milestones, it lends credibility to those bigger ones. And people focus on, whoa, he was able to do this impossible thing. And now
Starting point is 01:06:22 we're looking down the line, fuck, this genius must be able to do these other things too. And look at what he's doing with SpaceX privately. These landing rockets. He can do anything. So when he goes and tweets, like, Yeah, we're going to have fucking full self-driving in five years, say they're able to, they're just fucking goblin it up.
Starting point is 01:06:41 And then when they put out a good quarter, because they're doing tricky accounting stuff and they've got government subsidies, everybody goes, whoa, he must be fucking right. And the stock just goes and goes and goes. And people are buying him, not the stock. And it's truly a once in a lifetime, once in a generation type thing where you've got this extraordinary personality mixed with just the right sectors mixed with just the right stock
Starting point is 01:07:09 you know what I mean? Yeah, I do know what you mean. It's incredible. I really like this stat from this guy, John Brown on Twitter. And this just really puts into perspective the size of SpaceX's IPO.
Starting point is 01:07:24 So in 1999, when NVIDIA went public, if you had bought NVIDIA at the IPO and still held on today, you would have made 8,200 times your money, which is great, right? If a SpaceX IPO investor were to make the same return within 27 years,
Starting point is 01:07:43 SpaceX market cap would have to be 14.5144 quadrillion or 145 times the global, the current global M2 money supply. To achieve the same, you know... My only thing with this is that it's a very different environment of course. Companies used to go public much earlier. That's exactly the point, yeah.
Starting point is 01:08:06 So, yeah, it's just a different thing. So another thing that I want people to keep... I think the bigger thing is just how big of a bet people are taking on this thing where, like, the SpaceX valuation is $2.5 trillion. Amazon's valuation, $2.5 trillion, just a little bit over it. SpaceX's revenue, $18 billion. Amazon's revenue. $742 billion.
Starting point is 01:08:35 So they're beating. Amazon's got... Amazon's just got them absolutely licked in terms of revenues, but they're the same company value-wise. It doesn't seem... It doesn't seem inconceivable that Amazon by 2030
Starting point is 01:08:48 could be looking at a trillion dollars in revenue. No, not at all. Yeah. It's only 250 more. Yeah. Roughly. They're very close to that. Yeah. SpaceX is very...
Starting point is 01:08:59 Walmart, too. Walmart sales are, I think the biggest of anybody, which is fucking unbelievable. And SpaceX, the price is currently, I mean, it's closed now. 200 bucks. Top $200, $201 and $80. So here's the thing to keep in mind, folks.
Starting point is 01:09:15 Only 5% of the total shares of SpaceX are currently tradable. And I saw a guy phrase it really perfectly. It's like 50 people fighting over 50 square feet of a 1,000 square foot house and changing the value of it with every punch. I mean, you would know better than me, but 5% is pretty low for an IPO, right?
Starting point is 01:09:37 Usually it's about 20? I couldn't even tell you, but they're being only, they call that the float. That's how many shares are out floating for you to freely trade. And the fact that there are only 5%, there's only 5% means,
Starting point is 01:09:52 yeah, that basically only 5% of shares total is dictating the value of the company. So it's just a mess. And they just introduced, there's, there's an unlock period. It's a gradual one. I believe in a year, all 100% of shares will be unlocked and freely tradable. So buy it at your own risk. But also, they're going to be posting all of their filings on Twitter.
Starting point is 01:10:18 Of course. X, the Everything app. Yeah. Are you still confident in your initial prediction? Which is what? That it's going to keep going up and then start to drop? Yes. I think that it's going to be similar to Rivian. Rivian when it went public, opened wherever it did, and then jumped for a couple weeks, and then just... And then just never looked back. And I think we're looking at a similar thing here. Yeah, if you go to Max...
Starting point is 01:10:48 Oh, it doesn't even fucking show. But, yeah, it basically just, it never looked back. Because, I mean, it went public at a hundred-something billion dollar valuation. Yeah, but you know what? They don't have Elon Musk. That's true. I don't know. I don't even know what to think anymore. A part of me thinks it's just going to go up and up and up. Of course, it'll take dips, but it's doing a rivian, it's especially, you know, we live in this like, or we're at least trending towards this like Putin-style oligarchy. I mean, people with close ties to the regime are, I don't know, man. What makes me uncomfortable is the fact that people, how do I phrase this?
Starting point is 01:11:36 It's like the price the price of SpaceX only is as reasonable as the previous price. Like, well, yesterday it was it was only valued at $2 trillion. Why can't it keep going up? Okay, what if it were $20 trillion? Then it's like worth more than the entire
Starting point is 01:11:55 fucking global GDP, almost? Or wait, am I American GDP? Whatever it is. And Elon Musk being worth that, it becomes just like it's got to reach a point where everybody, even all these
Starting point is 01:12:09 diehard capitalists and market purists, whatever, have to stop and go, what the fuck is going on here? Something is structurally broken. And it already is leaning toward that. Options just started trading on it yesterday.
Starting point is 01:12:25 And if the options, if it gets crazy like GameStop or like Tesla, circa 2019, where a ton of options buying begets. Options just started when, today? Yesterday.
Starting point is 01:12:38 Yesterday. I believe it was yesterday. Or maybe it was today. Either way. The institutions, the banks, the entities that are selling these options, then have to buy the stock to back up those options. And it just becomes a reflexive loop. Call selling leads to stock buying, and it's just an endless feedback loop.
Starting point is 01:13:01 And that can become incredibly dangerous. Are you able to see what the trends are with the options? Are people trying to short it? I mean, it's so, I don't think anybody is legitimately trying to short it right now. I think everybody's just clawing over themselves to get some kind of exposure to it. But it becomes more about the internal plumbing of the market and less and less and less about actual price discovery, where it's simple supply and demand and fundamentals and it just becomes, well, I'm buying it because I know that options are being sold and I know that dealers have to buy the stock to cover the options that they're selling and that that loop can just continue on and on again like it did with, if you look up a chart on Tesla from 2019, it just went vertical because that's exactly what happened. It had very little
Starting point is 01:13:55 to do with the underlying fundamentals and everything to do with the structure of the market and reflexive call buying and stock covering and all this shit. Sorry, help me understand, though. Isn't that an argument that it will keep going up? Yes. Not that it will go down? Yes. And that is a potentially dangerous thing because it can get so big that all of the ETFs for the NASDAQ,
Starting point is 01:14:17 for the myriad ETFs that track the NASDAQ and the S&P and all the ETFs that track the S&P pension funds. Yeah, people like me. Retirement accounts, yeah. Are going to be fucked. You just buy index funds. Well, because it can become so powerful that it becomes almost like, you know, like a, not a black hole, but its gravity becomes so massive that its singular price moves on a
Starting point is 01:14:42 daily basis can affect the entire market. And it just gets to a point where it's like getting the speedwobbles on a skateboard going down a hill. Like it just, it gets to a point where, it just goes out of control. And then you're splayed out and you've turned yourself into a little flesh crayon. I mean, I'd obviously love this thing to do a Rivian. I would too. It would be very nice. The thing is, he just never rivians. Wait, say that again? He never rivians?
Starting point is 01:15:13 It never comes crashing down for him. Oh, yeah, yeah. Like, he's Elon Musk, he's bulletproof, okay? Rivian had R.J. Scarens, you know, that guy doesn't... Who? Exactly. Who? He doesn't have the juice to keep this thing going, to keep pumping it up.
Starting point is 01:15:28 Yeah. He didn't have the... RJ, why didn't you just go... Manipulate the market, man? I just tell everyone I'm building Rivian robots now. And they're actually all going to be building our Rivian moon base soon. And once they do that, it's just a quick, short hop and a skip and a jump to Mars where they're... Truly, why not?
Starting point is 01:15:45 I think that, I think that another thing about Elon Musk having this much tremendous wealth is with that comes power and influence. And I'm talking about offshore accounts that can be used. like we've talked about on here, it doesn't take a lot of money, relatively speaking, to move markets or move individual stocks. And if you can step in at the right times with a few hundred million or a few billion dollars, which to Elon Musk is nothing, if you can step in and prop up or even initiate a short squeeze in your own stock, you reach a point where you can truly manipulate your own wealth. And that's something. something that... And manipulate the world. I mean, he bought into this election for, what was it, $288 million for
Starting point is 01:16:37 $2024? Nothing. Yeah. You know, you're seeing massive repercussions of the Doge thing. The last estimates I saw, people don't really talk about it much from the USAID thing was like half a million people dead. Yeah. They're dealing with like a screw worm infection in Texas in the in the beef industry, which we hadn't seen since like the 1950s or something. It's going to cost way more than the The preventative program ever cost. They just talked about a billion dollars they're unleashing to try to fix this thing where we used to spend like 20 million bucks or so. It's just...
Starting point is 01:17:11 So, yeah, I mean, he's already the most influential person in the country. This has just made it all worse. So for those who disagree with us or you know, you're obviously free to have your opinion, but when we talk about and imagine caps on someone's wealth, these days it's more about the influence and the power that that tremendous, tremendous wealth can yield. A trillion. I know people point out that like, oh, you know, back in the day, I don't know, a billion
Starting point is 01:17:44 dollars might have been considered too much and now look at where we've come and, you know, everything that's spawned from that. It's an interesting debate to be had. But yeah, if a trillion dollars isn't too much, okay, fuck it. Why not 20 trillion? why not have him be singularly worth more than in the majority of the entire planet countries? I mean, surely that doesn't come with any kind of power levers that can be pulled or influence that can be bought.
Starting point is 01:18:15 It's a... My thing is I just always come back to, you know, all these people love to do like 50s nostalgia, like whatever, what happened to our country, make America great again, right? And they post all the things over like, you know, the white picket fence and a traditional home. and it's like, but what was the, you know, top tax rate in the 1950s? 70% or something like that? I think it was honestly like, just Google like top tax rate 1955 or something like that. I honestly think it was in the 90s.
Starting point is 01:18:43 Wow. And, you know, obviously now all these people, in 1955, the top marginal federal income tax rate for the United States was 91%. Jesus Christ. Obviously now they've created all kinds of new ways to avoid. income tax and everything, but these people just need to be taxed into oblivion. Anyway,
Starting point is 01:19:07 or like, yeah, slowly sell some of their stock or put it in, give it to the next generation, I don't know, put it in those fucking Trump accounts. Do something, man. Other than, because, yeah, what is he fucking doing with it all?
Starting point is 01:19:26 I'm going of miles. I'm going to put a man on mouth. Shut up, Elon. You know, just shut up. Fuck that guy. All right, anyway. Fuck that guy.
Starting point is 01:19:38 Finally. It's very strange looking at the, it was always strange, looking at those lists of whoever would put out. Like, just unimaginable wealth, seeing the hundreds of millions of dollars. It is so weird that now it just, it just says 1.4 trillion.
Starting point is 01:19:51 Yeah. And, I mean... It's bizarre to look at. I did the math the other day. You could spend a million dollars a day and it would take you something like, I don't know how many thousands of years. I want to say three thousand years. I mean, this is so unfathomable that, what was it? In 2021, we still, if you're new here, you might not know this, but we started a show called Trillionaire Mindset. And it was called
Starting point is 01:20:13 that because it was so goofy. Trillionaires weren't a thing. And I honestly didn't think we were going to see trillionaires. No, me neither. And now just a few short years later, we have our first one. Power of the stock market, baby. It's the power of the stock market. You know, you keep listening. listen to the show, you could be the next trillionaire. Everything is, like, people have been coming up with creative ways to show you the difference between a million dollars and a billion dollars for, I don't know,
Starting point is 01:20:40 for the last decade, 15 years, people will be like, this pile of rice is worth one billion dollars. And this big pile of shit is a trillion. But, no, but now they do, they have to include trillion. And it's so weird. The famous one was always like,
Starting point is 01:20:56 a million. A million seconds is like however many years or something like that. And then a billion seconds is whatever. It's like 30 years. And now they do a trillion seconds. It's like, yeah, this is unbathomable wealth. Is there any way to look that up real quick just so people can actually see what... How many years is one trillion seconds?
Starting point is 01:21:18 It's 31,709 years. But how many years is one billion seconds? Okay. Wait, 31,000. That's the difference. Yeah, 31 years to 31,000 years? Yeah, brother. You got to move that decimal over two places.
Starting point is 01:21:37 That's how that works. 31 years to 31,000 years. So that's how long Elon Musk is going to live. 31,000 years. What about a million seconds? A million seconds is move it over. It's like three days. I'm not good at math.
Starting point is 01:21:52 Put million. How many years? One million seconds. It's not even one. It's 0.03. So, yeah, how many days is that? Four months or something? I don't know, whatever.
Starting point is 01:22:04 12 days, 12 days. 12 days. Okay, so you go from 12 days to 31 years, which is obviously a massive fucking leap. Yeah, yeah. To 31,000, man. 31,000 years. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:22:15 Anyway, folks, let us know how high you can count in the comments. Me? I could just keep going forever if they let me. But they won't. But a lot of these AI models won't. count. Oh, let's show the comment of the week, shall we? This comes from Serge Me.
Starting point is 01:22:34 Ben Jestermogs Emil and Emil privacy maxes his life. I wouldn't say a jestermog you. Isn't that bad? For me? Doesn't it mean I'm a total fucking moron clown? I wouldn't say a privacy, Max. I would say...
Starting point is 01:22:50 Yeah, you do. Nobody knows anything about you. But in relation to you... Oh, sure. You are like... Did I ever tell you about the time? I wasn't wiping my ass for your gear. Very good. Very, very fair. All right, gang, we got a just an absolutely butt-loaded, loaded boner bonus episode.
Starting point is 01:23:10 So why don't you join us, Beninamilster.com. You sign up, it's like five days free or something like that. So check it out. It's really fun. I love it. It's really fun. I love it. We have so much fun there.
Starting point is 01:23:19 Hello. I love my suitcase. I like my suitcase. Okay. Uh, see it. We'll see you that folks. Coming up on this week's episode of Ben and Emile show.com. It is sweet. I saw another person that I'm sure you saw the Italian guy finding out about free refills. Oh yeah.
Starting point is 01:23:37 They're beautiful. And like a German woman in a diner getting bottomless soap. I do hate that our cultural exchange is just gluttony though. Oh, yeah. They're, you know, I went to America and it's, it's, you can, you can eat as much as you want. They're disgusting. There was a, they were interviewing some Japanese people in line for barbecue. and the woman goes, they're like,
Starting point is 01:23:58 what are you looking forward to? She goes, big beef. I want big beef. And the guy was like, barbecue. It's just the sweetest thing. That is very sweet. Damn, dude, imagine you get the ambassadorship to the Bahamas, and they're like, just one rule.
Starting point is 01:24:14 No jet skis. No! It is, I mean... Dude, what a fucking job. He probably makes, I don't know, $200,000. Yeah. And he's just fucking... has to make one of these videos every month or so.
Starting point is 01:24:29 Do you know what? We want to let you know, swimming with cool reef sharks can be dangerous. Yeah. Do you know what people from the Bahamas are called? Bahamians? Yes, that's right. Have we had this conversation before?
Starting point is 01:24:39 No. You know what Barbados people are called? Barbadians? Nope. Barbarians. Do you think, Luke, do you think we could find me a Peloton to the fucks? Yeah, we can do that.
Starting point is 01:24:51 Yeah. As long as I get to wear sexy pants. I kind of want to do it with you, but I know I can't do it. You can't. A hundred twelve miles. It's easier than running a marathon. That's certainly true. Okay, that was my whole point, though.
Starting point is 01:25:07 What if you got to piss? Are you able to get off the bike to piss? Surely you'll have to look up Iron Man rules. Yeah, we'll have to do it. Ironman-Bank. Iron-man-Bike rules. No, they don't. They piss themselves?
Starting point is 01:25:21 All right, we've got to find a Peloton order. bike the bike rules we got to find a peloton owner who's okay with us pissing on it

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