The Ben Mulroney Show - A potential deal to end the conflict in Gaza?

Episode Date: June 27, 2025

Guests and Topics: -Shaiel Ben-Ephraim -Mike Armstrong If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! ⁠https://link.chtbl.com/bms⁠ Also, on youtube -- ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@BenMulroneyShow⁠ Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Enjoy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

No Frills delivers. Get groceries delivered to your door from No Frills with PC Express. Shop online and get $15 in PC Optimum Points on your first five orders. Shop now at NoFriills.ca. I don't think anybody saw this coming. I don't think anybody expected this to come. But clearly the Americans have been working behind the scenes extensively in the Middle East to put together some version of a peace deal. And I didn't I did not know this was in the Middle East to put together some version of a peace deal. And I didn't, I did not know this was in the offing.

This is a huge deal that could have ramifications. If everyone has buy into this, this could change the war in Gaza. This could change the state of play across the region. So just listen to this. The war in Gaza would end in two weeks. Egypt, the UAE, and others would take over the governance of Gaza. The Hamas leaders would go into exile. I don't know what that means yet. We're going to talk to somebody in the next segment about what that could mean. All hostages are set to be released. There will be voluntary emigration from Gaza. Several countries

will accept these people from Gaza. You'll remember they have been locked in there. Egypt doesn't want them and they can't go anywhere else. This will expand the Abraham Accords, which of course was the signature foreign policy document of Trump's first administration. It's going to push for normalization of relations with Syria, Saudi Arabia, and others. So you're looking at taking people, countries that have typically been aggressive, oppositional opponents of Israel and having them normalize those relationships. Now what about the two-state solution that a lot of people thought after this war in

Gaza there was no chance. There is a framework as part of this peace deal. Israel is apparently showing openness to two states so long as it's tied to the Palestinian Authority reforms. The US is going to recognize partial Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, and the US would back Israeli sovereignty in those areas. So this is a huge monumental deal. There still are some disputes that need to be resolved. Israel has some demands. They want Hamas completely disarmed,

and they absolutely are insisting on the exile of the leadership. Where they're going to go, I have no idea. And will Israel chase them? I think part of the deal is going to have to be if they leave, they get to live in peace. And Hamas has demands. They want a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops and securing a permanent ceasefire term. So look, for those who think that Donald Trump

just chirps from the cheap seats and tweets in the middle of the night, this has been in the offing clearly for weeks, if not months. And if this comes to pass, this will be one of the most seminal moments in Middle Eastern politics in my lifetime. So watch this space. A lot, a lot to get to. I mean, look, I had no idea it was coming. I did not know that these talks were happening. And this is so ambitious.

It's not just the end of the war in Gaza, but it would allow the people of Gaza freedom of movement. It would allow them to stay if they want, go if they want. It would get Hamas out of Gaza altogether, or at least the leadership. And the governance of Gaza would be put in the hands of neighboring Arab nations, which means they have a stake in making sure that it doesn't

become what it once was. And any cooperation between Israel and its Arab neighbors, as far as I can see, is beneficial. Any time that they can work together on something and something as important as this, where you're pushing for normalization of relations with Syria, with Saudi Arabia, with other nations in the region, this is the biggest step towards peace that I can remember in the past 20, 30 years. I have no idea if it's gonna hold. I have no idea if Hamas will keep to their word,

if Israel will lay down their arms. I have no idea. I don't know how long it's gonna take, but this is incredible, incredible. A few numbers for you. According to Israel, 20,000 combatants on the Hamas side have been killed. According to the Palestinian side, over 56 people have died as of late June. Reuters reports that 878 Israeli military have had fatal casualties up until June.

So the numbers do not line up, but they line up for a professional army versus Hamas. You'll remember that the numbers coming out of Gaza from the Hamas health ministry, they've been up and down. They keep getting changed and tweaked. I don't trust those numbers as far as I can throw them, but the numbers, my heart goes out to anybody, anybody in that conflict that has lost their life. But displacement of people is also a very big deal. Over 2 million people were internally displaced. That's 95% of Gaza's population.

67 to 85% of housing was destroyed. And as much as that sounds devastating and is devastating, I still fall on the side of what was Israel supposed to do. Just tell me what else they were supposed to do. They had to go in, they had to fight. And because Hamas set the ground rules by fighting in urban areas, by embedding themselves with civilians, by having a network of tunnels that allowed them to

be anywhere and everywhere all the time, these numbers don't surprise me. I wish it didn't happen, but this is what Hamas wanted on October 7th, 2023. And the fact that we are even talking about a possible end of hostilities, I did not see this coming. My hope is that this is a piece that everyone can agree to, and the piece holds, and we usher in a more normal, more respectful state of play in terms of the relations between countries

in the Middle East. When we come back, we are going to be talking with the host of the Israel-Palestine Report on YouTube to see if we can get some more details on this potential end to the war in Gaza. Don't go anywhere. This is the Ben Mulroney Show. Welcome back to the Ben Mulroney Show. And before the break, I gave you sort of the flyover, broad strokes of what is looking like the beginning, possibly of the end of hostilities in the war in Gaza. If, in fact, something like this can be agreed to by all parties, that is a big, big if. But if that happens, within two weeks, there could be a ceasefire in Gaza that could lead to a more permanent peace. Here to discuss it more in depth,

we're joined by Shael Ben-Efframe. He's the host of the Israel-Palestine Report on YouTube. Shael, welcome to the show. Thank you, thank you so much for having me. So I'm sure that you've been paying very close attention to this. Ceasefire in Gaza in two weeks. Arab countries will run Gaza, and so Egypt, UAE,

and two weeks. Arab countries will run Gaza and also Egypt, UAE and two others. Normalization of relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia and Syria and expansion of the Abraham Accords. I mean, there's a lot to digest here and there's no way this was just put together in a couple of days. How long do you think this has been in the offing? This has been the offing for a very long time. And when I say very long time, the first time I heard about this plan was in January 2024, when Biden's administration was talking about

bringing the UAE, at that point, I think it was only the UAE, into Gaza to run it and providing Netanyahu with the sort of incentive to end the war with normalization with Saudi Arabia. Since then it's grown a little bit and now it also includes normalization with Syria and possibly other countries, but the idea has been there for well over a year and a half.

So listen, there are so many stakeholders in this, but the two key parties obviously are Hamas and the government of Israel. It's pretty easy to go to the people in Israel and the leaders there and find out what they're thinking about this. But how do we know how this is being viewed by Hamas and their leadership?

Well, I mean, honestly, in both cases, it's equally difficult to know what people are really thinking because their public statements are very misleading. But in Hamas's case, even though their leaders are often hiding and get killed and so on and so forth, making it difficult, as you implied. They also have been a lot more consistent in their views than the Israeli government. They've always said the same thing. They've said the war needs to end and Israel needs to withdraw, and then we'll have a ceasefire. So on some level, there's no need for that much speculation. What changes is their willingness to compromise on other things.

their willingness to compromise on other things. And right now, according to a lot of leaks, the Hamas is very desperate to get a deal more desperate than they were before. Shael, what about the people of Israel? Is this something that would be viewed as a welcome and pivotal moment? Absolutely. The Israeli public has wanted a ceasefire for a very long time. Last poll

I saw had 70% of Israelis wanting a ceasefire. Now that ceasefire would come with extra incentives. We're talking about normalization with countries. Israel has wanted a normalization with for a very long time. So that would raise the support for it. And then also, there's the belief at least that Israel has destroyed or set back the Iranian nuclear program, damaged Hamas more. So I think this would be more popular than ever. That was never the problem. The problem is that Netanyahu didn't want it for various reasons. Now that he has all these achievements, he doesn't have the political problem of reaching the deal like he did before. And part of this is, which I have to assume is one of the key essential parts

is a return of all the remaining hostages. How convinced are you that that is even a possibility given how intractable getting them back has been for so long? I don't think that getting the hostages back is that much of a problem as long as there are ironclad guarantees to Hamas that Israel is leaving Gaza and that the war is over. That's always been an issue. This has been one of trust, not of wanting to give back the hostages. Hamas have no reason to hold onto to the hostages if the war is going to end, but they don't trust that the war is going to end because these fires have been violated before. So according to this deal, half of the hostages would be released when the deal

is signed or reached, and then half would be reached, would be released once the end of the war has been agreed to. And look, we're talking about Israel getting out of Gaza, but we're also talking about Hamas leadership going into exile. That's part of this, with the requirements here as well. So a couple of things, where would they be welcome? And does Israel have to guarantee that they're not gonna go after this leadership, that if

they're in exile, they get to live out their days in peace? Yeah, well, the details of that are not clear because Hamas has not agreed to that. And I'm not 100% sure that Hamas will agree to that. But if they do, we're talking probably about Turkey or Qatar, which as you alluded neither one enthusiastic to take them but might be willing. Yeah, and Israel would have to guarantee that it's not going to kill them if they're going to accept it. Yeah, it would be very stupid of them to just say, you know, yeah we'll go and you know, go ahead and have at us. That doesn't mean Israel won't kill them by the way but they'll try to get some guarantees for sure. Now, meanwhile, you're going to have mobility for the people of

Gaza for the first time in a very long time. They're going to be allowed to move around and countries and neighboring countries have agreed to welcome them and take them in. So that's a net positive for the people. But let's talk about the redevelopment of Gaza, the rebuild. You've got four countries that are going to participate in this, four Arab nations. Are they gonna assume the cost of the redevelopment of Gaza as well? Partially, there's definitely going to be participation from the European Union.

There's definitely gonna be participation from the United States and possibly also participation from Israel, the UN and so on and so forth. But there's a lot of danger that this redevelopment, quote unquote, plan and resettlement plan might be used as cover by Israel to try to get as many people out of there as possible. You got a very difficult balance here. There's a lot of people in Gaza who really want to leave and And there's a lot of people that Israel wants to drive out. And then trying to make sure that people who want to stay

can stay, and the people who want to leave can leave, is something that'll be very difficult to do, but it's worth pursuing. And let's talk about the sort of the normalization of relations that is, I think, in my novice opinion, vital to broader peace in the region. What does that mean exactly? Like when we talk about normalize normalizing relations between Israel and say, Syria, what does that mean?

Well, normalization, the pinnacle of normalization is the exchange of ambassadors and embassies between the two countries. So we're talking not only about recognition, which is the first step, but actually having diplomatic relations. In the case of Syria in particular, there's a state of war still between Israel and Syria. So we're talking about not only making peace, but also having full diplomatic relations like Israel does with Egypt. Of course, that stops short of a true warm peace which Israel has never developed with Egypt, although it has to some extent with the

UAE. So we're talking about the two countries, at least the governments, treating each other like normal countries. That's where the word normalization comes from. And really it's a great victory for Israel because part of the problem Israel's had throughout its history is that its neighbors aren't willing to recognize its existence. And this would take two of the most important Arab nations and put them in the normalization camp. So if we live in the most optimistic world and the best version of this deal is adopted by all parties and they all buy in, what does the Middle East look like a couple of years from now?

Well, that's a good question. The Middle East would look better in terms of Israel's acceptance and Israel's economic and social role in the region. But I wouldn't be too optimistic, even in the most optimistic outcome, for the simple reason that this structure has Israel recognized, and this is something that's in the fine print of this supposed deal, has the United States recognizing Israeli annexation of the West Bank, at least in part. And what that means, of course, is that the oppression of the Palestinians continues. And that means that the seeds for the next conflict are sown.

We're going to have people being pressured to leave Gaza, and we're going to have parts of the West Bank annexed and all Netanyahu needs to do is pay lip service to a two-state solution which he's never been serious about. So basically, we'll be starting the countdown to the next war between Israel and the Palestinians. Well, and we only have about one minute left, Shael, but I want to remind people that right before the war started, Netanyahu was tremendously unpopular with, I think, almost half the country protesting his changes to the Supreme Court. Once the war is over, he's no longer a wartime prime minister.

Could we see his popularity dip again? His popularity is already pretty low and even the successful operation inside Iran only rearranged the mandates inside his right-wing block. So I don't, I think his popularity will go down a little bit, but it's already not enough to form a government. He's hoping that this will be enough. It will not be enough. His main goal right now will be to block the creation of a new government, which he may be able to do, and then possibly get some kind of deal where his trial is blocked or so on. He's not going to be able to regain his premiership. Shail Ben-Effriem, thank you so much for being here. Really,

I'm so glad you were able to level set for us. I appreciate it. Anytime. for being here really, I'm so glad you were able to level set for us, I appreciate it. Anytime. This podcast is sponsored by BetterHelp. If you've been following the news, like really following it, you know how exhausting it can be. Politics, conflict, uncertainty, it's a lot to carry. And for many men, there's this expectation to stay calm,

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travel on any weekend day or holiday, anywhere along the Go network. And the weekday group passes offer the same weekday travel flexibility across the network, starting at $30 for two people and up to $60 for a group of five. Buy your online GO! Pass ahead of the show at Gotransit.com slash tickets. Welcome back to the Ben Mulroney Show. And I gotta say, it's hard to put yourself in the shoes of Israelis when you're living in the comfort and the safety of Canada, where the worst fear we have are tariffs. They have to worry about tanks and bombs. And our previous guest said it, the state of Israel operates in the most hostile area with so many countries around them denying that they even have the right to exist.

That is changing, that has been changing over the course of its history, but make no mistake, it is not safe for that country at this point given the fact that there are countries that are firmly opposed to their very existence. And so I always wonder what it's like to be an Israeli during a time of war. They have dealt with it and endured it since the beginning, since the creation of the country. We're joined now by Mike Armstrong, the global national correspondent, who had been in Israel for two weeks. As a Canadian, Mike, being in Israel, what did you feel and what did you see as it related to human beings living their lives, dealing with bombs and and rockets flying overhead?

It was it was pretty strange. I mean, when we came into the region, so two weeks ago, tomorrow, I believe, we landed in Jordan, because that was the only way into the country. And in Jordan, you spoke to people and you could see missiles going overhead. And, you know, between Iran and Israel and in both directions. So that's when you sort of start realizing, oh, we are really in a war zone. Yeah, you were going towards the missiles.

Yeah, yeah, my family wasn't too happy. But yeah, so we drove, we went to a border crossing, we couldn't get in there, we had to go to another border crossing and we finally got in and we went to Jerusalem and it was kind of shut down. I spent a month there after October 7th, so I'd been before, and this time a lot of things were closed down. Actually, eventually they even closed down the old city to all, except for the people who live there. And so we were in a hotel, but we traveled as well, you know, all over the

region sort of talking to people about what they were living through. And, you know, the big thing that really stands out is safe rooms. And the idea that your phone would go off at any time, day and night, and you'd have about 10 minutes to find a safe room, some sort of or a shelter of some kind. If you're in Tel Aviv, a lot of people would go to the subway. Is the experience of getting one of those alerts? Is it like the amber alerts that we get when a child goes missing or the child is abducted? Yeah, and he goes off in the middle of the night sometimes and you're like, oh, well,

this is this is, you know, it directly affects you, you have to get somewhere. And you usually had 10 minutes, about 10 minutes, maybe a little bit less, maybe a little bit more to find a bomb shelter. And that was going on all over the place. Jerusalem was a little bit safer, but Tel Aviv, certainly, Bar-Sheba got hit, Haifa a lot, all sorts of different parts of the country.

And I went to some of these houses that were hit, you know, residential neighborhoods and walked through houses that were one in particular that it just boggles the mind that the people that lived in that home survived. Yeah. They, they went into their safe room. The husband actually had gone out that morning. He dropped off his daughter. She had something early. He came home, he got home and he said, she said, I had this feeling something was bad. And then he said, then the phone went off.

And so I took my other daughter and my wife and we all went into the safe room. Cause since 1991, every new residential project in Israel has to have a safe room. Oh, really? I didn't, I didn't know that. Mike, I want to jump in for a sec because you've been to the region before and this, the, the, the, the, the, the, the fight with Iran

from my vantage point here, really hit close to home. We saw missiles getting through the Iron Dome. We saw missiles hitting residential areas. And I wonder if you noticed a change in the psyche of the average Israeli, feeling that for the first time in a long time, they, where they lived, where they worked,

where they played, where they congregated was under very real threat. I'm not sure I got that, to be honest, like that it was different in that way. But what I did hear often were people sort of shaking. And I literally heard this from a lot of people that, you know, you had COVID, then you had October 7th and now you had this, and it's kind of like, it's a country that hasn't been able to get its footing since. I would maybe put it that way.

There's a buildup there. Yeah, yeah, for sure. But you as a Canadian being, you said if your family wasn't happy that you were there, what was it like for someone who is, you know, from, like I said, you're from a country of relative peace, comparatively to Israel, we don't have to deal with any of that stuff. And then you're thrown into it for two weeks, two of the most violent, worrisome weeks that you could have picked.

Yeah, well, you see, there's this thing with for journalists, sometimes you head into a hurricane, or you head into a war, and you know, you're going the wrong way. You see lots of people going in the other direction and you go, okay, we're going the wrong way. And in this case, you know, with social media, my sons are, you know, in their twenties now and they were upset with this trip for some reason. And I think it's because social media just kept showing them ballistic missiles

as though they were raining down everywhere, which wasn't quite the case. You still had to get very unlucky to be hit, I guess would be the way to put it. Yeah. Mike, you're now in Jordan. When did you leave? This morning. We were able to, we've driven from Tel Aviv this morning to Jordan, to Amman, Jordan. So you, so you were in Israel when the announcement of sort of this expansion of the Abraham Accords and a potential ceasefire two weeks from now started

making, making the rounds. Did you talk to anybody? Did you get a sense of what the everyday Israelis think about this initiative? Yeah, it's you hear both. There are a lot of people who are looking forward to the end. And there are a lot of people. You know, there are a lot of people that don't see the end. I think maybe you're so deep into the tunnel. It's hard to see the end of the tunnel.

Why? They're skeptical that there will be enough buy-in from the stakeholders? Yeah, there's a lot of opposition. You know, the sort of the hardliners, that coalition government is held together by a shoestring. You know, we'll have to see if it can get through some of the hurdles that might be ahead. So yeah, people are nervous. Well, it's also gonna be very interesting if and when this war ends, what happens to the Netanyahu government? It was wildly unpopular before the war.

It looked like it could have fallen at any day then the war happened, giving him a reprieve, but without a war to justify sort of sticking around. What do you think is the future for that man? Yeah, it's it's complicated. I mean, he was supposed to be testifying next week. I think they've gotten a delay. Donald Trump got involved, saying that the Israel should let the guy off and things like

that. There are a lot of people who say that, you know, there's one gentleman, he's an Israeli writer, and he was saying that he doesn't trust Benjamin Netanyahu at all, at all. He said this is a man who could bring world peace, bring about world peace. He says I still wouldn't vote for him, but he supported him in what he was doing in Iran. He doesn't support what's going on in Gaza. And I'll tell you, as a Canadian being there, I kind of have to mention it. You're 60 kilometers, I was in Tel Aviv in a nice hotel the last few days we had moved,

and the missiles had stopped and the city reopened and you're sitting there and it's a beach city, it's beautiful. And you're 63 kilometers from the wall of Gaza. And I'm Lee, I left today thinking, uh, as a journalist feeling very guilty that I'm not able to tell that story properly. And I would like to go in and I've been to Natif HaSara after October 7th, I was right on the wall at the wall. And again, you know, that's a couple of years ago and we tried to get in. No one, the Israeli government will not let journalists in.

We work with journalists who are inside and they help get the story out. But as I say, it was painful leaving and not being able to tell that. I mean, 60 kilometers, you're talking like the CN tower to Oshawa, right? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, he's almost spitting distance. Mike Armstrong, I just want to say on behalf of everybody here at the show, we're very glad that you've made it to Jordan that you're safe. I'm sure your family is breathing a sigh of relief. I hope you get home soon.

Give them all a big hug. And I wish you a very happy and peaceful Canada Day. Thank you very much. You too. Hey, so what did you want to talk about? Well, I want to tell you about Wigovie. Wigovie? Yeah, Wigovie. What about it?

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