The Ben Mulroney Show - Israel Strikes Iran, where the war goes from here

Episode Date: June 13, 2025

Guests and Topics: -Israel Strikes Iran, where the war goes from here with Guest: Andrew Fox, Former British army officer, Now a researcher and Middle East specialist If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! https://globalnews.ca/national/program/the-ben-mulroney-show Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Enjoy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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or down Toronto's bustling streets. From now until June 30th, lease a 2025 Volvo XC60 from 1.74% and save up to $4,000. Conditions apply. Visit your GTA Volvo retailer or go to volvocars.ca for full details. Welcome to the Ben Mulroney Show on this Friday, June 13th, 2025. Thank you so much for joining us. I hope everybody's had a great week and we're going to end it in style here on the Ben Mulroney Show. I want to thank you, by the way, for joining us wherever we may find you in the car, at the gym, at home. You may be watching us on YouTube now. On top of being on podcast platforms,

on the radio, on streaming apps, we now at the Ben Mulroney Show have a YouTube channel so you can enjoy the audio, you can enjoy the video, and you can enjoy us anywhere that you may be. So this was an attack that a lot of us expected. Some people hoped it would not happen, but Israel in an attempt to do something that needed to be done, in my opinion, which is slow Iran's seemingly inevitable march towards obtaining a nuclear weapon,

attacked in the early hours of Friday, attacked Iran by taking out their top military officers, hitting their nuclear research and missile strikes and raising the potential for an all out war in the region. That has been a concern since violence erupted on October 7th, 2023, when Hamas waged a genocidal attack on Israel. And ever since then, we've been wondering whether that localized conflict would spill over waged a genocidal attack on Israel. And ever since then, we've been wondering whether that localized conflict would spill over

to a larger war in the region. And what happened in this, what's called Operation Lion, is nothing short of military brilliance yet again, by the IDF. So they said about 200 aircraft were involved in the initial attack on 100 targets. Two security officials said that the country's Mossad spy agency was also able to position explosive drones inside of Iran in the days and weeks leading up to the attack. All they had to do was activate them and they were already deep inside of Iran.

They were able to hit Iran's main nuclear enrichment facility, they were able to hit a lot of top military targets, the Iranians killed by Israel were the commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guard, the former IRGC commander, a head of the Revolutionary Guard's aerospace force, the head of the IRGC's headquarters, and two nuclear scientists. So this is a significant blow to Iran in, as I said, their attempt to obtain a nuclear

weapon. Some people are calling this an escalation. In my humble estimation, this is a de-escalation. You had to hit the people who want the bomb because once they have it, they are more likely, I think, than anybody on the planet to use a nuclear weapon. Iran cannot get a nuclear weapon. And if nobody else was going to do it, Israel was going to do what they always do.

If nobody comes to their aid, they were going to aid themselves. Here is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talking about Operation Rising Lion. Moments ago Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival. This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat. for as many days as it takes to remove this threat. Good. I'm glad, because he continues and talks to us about how close Iran is to actually building a bomb. For decades, the tyrants of Tehran have brazenly, openly called for Israel's destruction.

They've backed up their genocidal rhetoric with a program to develop nuclear weapons. In recent years, Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs. In recent months, Iran has taken steps that it has never taken before – steps to weaponize this enriched uranium. And if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. It could be a year, it could be within a few months, less than a year. And look, without Israel pushing the ball down the field, Iran would have a nuclear weapon already.

In 2010, they unleashed something called the Stuxnet computer virus, which is widely believed to have been a virus that was built in collaboration between Israel and the US. And they somehow got it infiltrated into Iran's computer network, and it disrupted and destroyed Iranian centrifuges, which are essential to building a nuclear bomb. They have been at this for years, either through intelligence gathering, through covert activity, or overt military action.

And so this is something that needed to be done. That being said, Donald Trump and the United States have many cards to play in this scenario, in this environment. They are a staunch supporter of Israel. They want peace in that region. And you know that Donald Trump has been adamant about doing what he can on the diplomatic front, keeping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

Despite that, they seem hell bent on getting one. Here is what Donald Trump said on truth social this morning after the attacks. He said, I gave Iran a chance, a chance after chance to make a deal. I told them in the strongest of words to just do it. But no matter how hard they tried to my, how close they go, they just couldn't get it done.

I told them it would be much worse than anything they know anticipated or were told that the United States make the best and most military lethal equipment anywhere in the world by far, and that Israel has a lot of it with much more to come. He goes on, he goes on, he says, no more death, no more destruction,

just do it before it's too late. God bless you all. Warning them, give up on your dreams of a nuclear weapon or things are gonna get worse for you long before they get better. He's also sort of in a Donald, a Donald Trump way. Because that was, listen, he didn't want this to happen.

He did not. He was urging Israel not to do this. But he said, after it happened, he said, well, I might as well go with, go with the flow. Two months ago, I gave Iran a 60 day ultimatum to make a deal. They should have done it. Today is day 61. I told them what to do, but they just couldn't get there. Now they have perhaps a second chance. And let's listen to what Donald Trump had to say before the attacks happened.

Mr. President, how imminent is an Israeli strike on Iran? Well, I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen. Look, it's very simple, not complicated. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful. I want them to be tremendous. We'll help them be successful.

We'll trade with them. We'll do whatever is necessary. You know, I stopped a war between India and Pakistan. And I stopped it with trade. Nobody, I don't think I've ever seen a story written about it, but it was pretty cool. They were getting ready. Pakistan was now, it was their turn to hit, and eventually they're gonna go nuclear.

And I stopped it. I called each, I respect each leader greatly, I know them. And I spoke to them and I talked about trade. I said, but you're not trading with us if you're gonna go to war, if you're gonna start throwing nuclear weapons around. And I said it to both of them and they were both unbelievable actually.

They understood it exactly. They stopped. I stopped that war. So it's always about him. And he's always trying to position himself as the reason something good happened, right? But the New York Times, or rather the Wall Street Journal, tweeted out that President Trump told Israel not to strike Iran on Monday. That's per the Wall Street Journal. So he told them not to do it. And then they did it.

Now he's saying he was part of it because it was day 61 of his ultimatum. So thank you, Donald Trump. Here is what our foreign minister, Anita Anand, had to say about all of this. Canada is closely following the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. Further action risk triggering a broader regional conflict with devastating consequences. De-escalation must be the priority.

We urge all parties to refrain from actions that further destabilize the region. The protection of civilians must be paramount. Canada remains deeply concerned by the threat posed by Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program. Yet again, it feels to me like the government in Ottawa is putting the cart before the horse. This is the issue is Iran's drive

to getting a nuclear weapon. You want an unstable region? Let Iran get a nuclear weapon. The only way to stabilize the region, the only way to de-escalate is to go after their nuclear program. That's the only way. That is the only language they understand because the world that they live in is a world with no Jews. It is a world where Israel has been reduced to ash and rubble. We know it because they say it. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.

And for our foreign minister to both sides this thing, I want moral clarity. I will take Donald Trump's moral clarity any day over this drivel. Any day over this, let's have it both ways. Let's de-escalate. Let's not. Come on. You got to take the world as it is, not as's have it both ways. Let's deescalate. Let's not, come on. You gotta take the world as it is, not as you want it to be.

And the world that we live in is a world where there are enemies abound that want to destroy the only, only stable democracy in the Middle East. And it is our shame for not saying it with more fortitude. Welcome back to the Ben Moroney Show. And want to end this show with a tip of the hat to Israel for making the world a safer place today after a surgical attack that saw them decimate large swaths of the Iranian military as well as the research wing of their nuclear program.

The state of play in the Middle East is different today. You'll remember that Donald Trump was trying to get a deal with Iran to give up their nuclear hopes. When that fell down and fell apart, Israel did what Israel does. They stepped up and they orchestrated an incredible operation to decimate those, that march forward towards a nuclear weapon.

And today I think the world is a little bit of a safer place. Donald Trump has since reversed course and tried to take credit for it. That's not what happened, in my estimation. But when you look at the reaction from around the world, you've got some people saying that, oh, we've got to turn the heat down, and we've got to de-escalate.

In my estimation, this is the de-escalation that the region needed. But we're joined now by somebody who knows a heck of a lot more about this than I, and hopefully can add a little bit more of the details surrounding why this happened and what comes next. Andrew Fox, he's a former British Army officer and now a researcher and Middle East specialist. Thank you so much for joining us, Andrew, and thank you for your service. Oh, thank you very much, and I appreciate the invitation.

So, yeah, things are a little different today. You know, just over the course of doing this show, we're hearing that the Iranian leadership has reached out to Donald Trump. We don't yet know, at least I don't yet know what they are hoping to talk about, but they might be coming back and asking for the deal that they weren't able to reach with Donald Trump. What do you make of what happened in this strike? I mean, it was a truly remarkable

military operation that builds on the previous operations that Israel undertook in 2024. Iran has been left without air defenses, and as a result, the Israelis were able to penetrate their airspace with complete ease. The first round of strikes destroyed, obviously, the nuclear scientists and various military leadership. And then the second and subsequent waves hit that infrastructure at a massive scale and air strikes are still going on pretty much as we speak as Israel continues to degrade those capabilities. I mean, because Andrew, I don't think of all the countries that currently have nuclear weapons, if Iran were to join that very select group of nations, to me, knowing far less than you, I think they would

be the ones most eager to use one. Yeah, I think you're right. And I think it's too great a chance to take, quite frankly. You know, it's suboptimal that North Korea have them, but North Korea is very strange and isolated and operate in different ways to the rest of the world. Whereas Iran has regional ambitions. They've been a regional hegemon since 2003 in the invasion of Iraq.

That has been severely degraded by Israeli actions since 7th of October across the Middle East and all of their proxies have taken a beating in one form or another. They're at the weakest they've ever been and therefore the most dangerous should they have been able to achieve nuclear status. So, you know, we can make the case that the nuclear peace concept holds and mutually assured destruction and all that good Cold War thinking. But when it comes to Iran, that's that's far too big a gamble for my money. I think this was the right move by Israel. Well, and this is what I don't understand.

If we all agree that a nuclear Iran is just, it's a bridge too far, then anything that can degrade their ability to build that bomb should be viewed as a net positive. I'm sitting here scratching my head, trying to figure out why the Canadian government didn't come out in a full-throated endorsement of this operation.

And yet here we are. What do you think the immediate knock-on effects of this are gonna be? So what I think is that this is gonna go on for at least a couple more days. I think that Israel has a very large target deck and they're going to hit every bit of it that they can. And I think what happens when the missiles stop falling

is the most interesting part. Everything Mr. Trump is saying suggests that he's going to try again at diplomacy. I think he would have preferred a diplomatic solution to what happened last night. But Iran didn't believe the 60 day time limit that he set was real. They didn't think the threat was credible.

And so they tried to play hardball and now they're paying the hard way. The huge question is how do they approach the next round of negotiations if Mr. Trump does decide to go down that route? Are they going to? Well, he's definitely puffing up his chest. He's peacocking right now, saying,

you know, I gave you an opportunity and you saw what happened with Israel. So there's, it seems to me the arithmetic is simple. They're gonna come back to the tables in a far more weakened position than they otherwise would have been in. Yeah. But I think the key thing to remember is that these kinds of dictatorships don't think in electoral cycles or immediate short-term solutions. They think in generations. And actually, nuclear knowledge isn't going anywhere. They can always train up more scientists.

They can always build more centrifuges. They can always replace the generals that were killed. And yeah, it might take 20, 30 years, but they think in those timescales. So, where we might think it's absolutely logical that they would now come begging to the diplomatic table and desperately ask for a deal, actually, when you're looking into the psychology

of these kinds of regimes, that might not be the case. And then the really big question is what happens if they still don't have a diplomatic deal? Does America then weigh in? Because the Fordow centrifuge facility is half a mile deep under a mountain in northern Iran. Israel doesn't have the capability to hit it as far as we know. And even the biggest American bombs will take multiple hits. So that's the really huge question is what happens if there's still no deal after this Israeli campaign is finished? You know, a few years ago, Israel was alone in the region. They, you know, they were one of one in terms of allies in the region.

That's not necessarily the case anymore. And while there are, I'm sure, lot of countries in the region happy to see a weakened Iran, they're not going to necessarily say it out loud. Could this portend a realignment of allegiances in the region? Yeah, I think potentially it could. I mean, there is obviously the running sore that is the Gaza war still going on. I don't think any realignments going to happen until that comes to a suitable conclusion. Certainly not with the Saudis because you know, much as MBS, Mohammed bin Salman would love to have a repression in a pipeline deal with

Israel for energy. He has to placate his people and the word on the streets in the Arab world is massively anti-Israel at the moment. So it's not gonna happen quickly, but it's certainly, everyone knows that Iran is the malign actor in the Middle East. Everyone knows that they have to play nice with Iran. And if that requirement to play nice goes away, we could see a much more isolated Iran. And as a result, that might make things

a little bit easier further down the line, but I don't think it's going to be a rapid solution. I was also reading and I can't remember the names of the two nations, but apparently in prosecuting this, this military operation, uh, Israel forces flew through the airspace of, of two other countries in the region. I think Iraq was one of them. Uh, what, what does that say about, um, that say about the alignment in the region currently? I mean, I think when it comes to Iraq, the American influence there is particularly strong.

Jordan would have been the other country. And we saw the Jordanians shooting down Iranian drones just this morning. So Jordan is fully on board. Whilst they're uncomfortable with Israel, they're facing a very active destabilization attempt by Iran at the moment so they will be delighted to see Iran weakened. And I think it really shows that Israel does have freedom of movement when it comes to attacking

Iran. You know the fall of Assad in Syria means that those air defense sites that would have been a threat to Israeli jets and are gone. And it means that even if Iran don't come to a deal, Israel still has the capability to strike them at will. And when it comes to the political echelon, we know the president's apartment took a hit last night. It was known to be empty, but it was a very clear piece of messaging from Israel that they could escalate to the political echelon. If striking the military echelon and infrastructure doesn't prove to be enough.

And lastly, and if I could get you to answer this in about 30 seconds, but does this not also have sort of the immediate effect of making it a lot harder for Iran to project its strength via proxies in the region? Yeah, it does. They've only really got two working proxies left. Hezbollah have said they will not be participating in retaliation against Israel, which leaves only the Iraqi militias who were constrained by American presence,

and then the Houthis who've been an ongoing nuisance for 20 months. So they could try with their proxies, but they have a very, very reduced proxy capability compared to 6th of October 2023. Andrew Fox, always appreciate your insights. Thank you so much for joining us. I hope you have a great weekend. Thank you. Andrew Fox, always appreciate your insights. Thank you so much for joining us. I hope you have a great weekend. Thank you. The best high concept,

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