The Ben Mulroney Show - Lottery Fever: Your Chances Explained by a Statistician and Advice from a Big Winner

Episode Date: October 14, 2026

On today's episode of "The Ben Mulroney Show," Ben welcomes Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, Professor of Statistics at the University of Toronto They discuss the actual odds of winning the lottery and other unlikely events that are statistically more likely than winning the lottery. Next Ben chats with Timothy Schultz, Host of the "Lottery, Dreams, and Fortune" podcast. Tim won $28 million when he was only 21 years old. He offers advice to the next big lotto winner. YouTube Channel Website If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://link.chtbl.com/bms⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Also, on youtube -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@BenMulroneyShow⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Insta: ⁠⁠⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Standard messaging and data rates may apply. Someone tonight is absolutely going to win. Every time I've ever bought a lottery ticket, I've convinced myself that I'm going to win. And it's the only thing I think of, which is one of the reason that I'll buy them anymore. It clouds out and crowds out everything else in my brain. But the odds of winning the lottery, because there's an $85 million lotto-max jackpot. When is it tonight? Yeah, tonight.

The odds of winning the lottery, not so good, according to my next guest. Please welcome to the show. Professor of Statistics from the U of T, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal. Professor, thank you for being here. Hello. Yeah, we all think we're going to win. We all believe it because it, because it, you know, it's somebody's got to win, right?

So talk to me about the odds of winning a lottery or a jackpot this big. Yeah, well, the odds are not pretty good as you just hinted. I mean, all you have to do is pick the same seven distinct numbers between one and 52 as they pick. But the problem is there's a whole lot of ways you can pick seven distinct numbers between the one and 52. There's almost 134 million different ways that you can make that pick. So on a single line, you have about one chance. and 134 million of matching their numbers, and that's why it's not very likely. Okay, okay, so let's, are there any tactics that can help increase your odds?

Well, I get asked that a lot, and the short answer is no, that is to say whatever in seven numbers you pick, you have the same chance of matching the seven numbers that they pick randomly. The only thing I can give for advice is try not to pick numbers that other people are also likely to pick, so if you do happen to match it, you'll be less likely to have share the jackpot. So for example, if you pick numbers which correspond to birthdays, well, a lot of people will pick numbers based on their kids' birthdays or whatever. Or if you pick a bunch of numbers in a row, maybe a lot of people are more likely to pick that. So try to take unusual numbers so you don't match people too much, but you have the same chance

of matching the jackpot draw, what, $134 million for every line of seven numbers. Okay, so years ago, years ago my aunt, Evena, who listens to this show religiously, I bet she's listening right now. She said something to me that sounded, it felt right. But there's a part of me that says, when I tell you this, you're going to tell me that statistically it doesn't change anything. Tell me if this makes any sense. Your chance of winning the lottery goes down if you know someone personally who won. No, I can't see any connection that way because if it was a previous draw, then it really has no impact on the next draw. And even if we'd like to believe there's magic karma forces at work

somehow really every draw is a fresh draw, so I don't see any connection. So, but statistically, what are the chances that two people who know each other are going to win the lottery? Well, I mean, it's interesting because, of course, the chances aren't that high, but that doesn't mean the fact that one person won it means you're less likely. In fact, that reminds me of an old joke I use sometimes where this guy was afraid that the terrorists were going to bring a bomb onto his airplane, and his solution was to bring his own bomb onto the airplane, because it was astronomical unlikely. there'd be two bombs on the same plane. And the point is, just because you're bringing a bomb or just because your friend won,

that really doesn't have any impact on the chance that the next person. So you're talking about like independent statistical models. One has nothing to do with the other. Yeah, they do a fresh draw every time. They do it on their computers. I think they have these random computers, and it really isn't affected by whether you're a friend one last time or not. Okay.

Now, so does that mean that all the statistical data that somebody may have, have accrued and compiled and broken down and cross-referenced, but previous winners and previous numbers, there's no pattern whatsoever in them that could help somebody pick the numbers that could give them a beneficial outcome. That's pretty much right now. If there were some flaw in the way that they generate their random numbers, then it's possible with enough analysis you could find a flaw.

But to be honest, they are very careful in the way they pick them, and I really do think they do it in a way that's random. And then it doesn't matter. I mean, in the past, maybe, you know, you can find certain numbers came up more than others, but that's always going to be the case just by random fluctuation. It doesn't say anything about what's going to happen next. Now, a professor, did you get into statistics in order to learn enough about probabilities so that you could win and game the lottery?

I would have to give a note of that. In fact, I've actually never bought a traditional lottery ticket because the one thing that getting into statistics is taught me is just how unlikely it is that anyone, ticket is going to win that big jackpot. So whereas other people can buy the ticket and dream about what they're going to do if they win, I can't even dream anymore. So I don't even buy a ticket. So not only a wet blanket for every dreamer listening to the Ben Mulroney show, but you actually

killed your own dreams. Well, I guess. I don't want to be a wet blanket, though. I mean, I think it could be worth a few dollars if it lets you dream and be excited and think about what you might do. And, you know, it's exciting to watch the draw and everything. So I'm not against it. Also, it makes money for the provincial government, and they pay my salary as a professor.

so I'm not going to complain about any of that, but at the same time, you shouldn't plan your financial future on it. So how do we explain those weird outliers who win like five lotteries? Like they've, is that just luck? Well, there's a couple things. One is, of course, they may buy lots of lots of tickets, and there's some people who do buy lots and lots of tickets. And even if you buy lots of tickets, you're not guaranteed to win anything.

But the more you buy, obviously, the more likely you are to win. But another thing is that with everybody buying all these tickets, somebody might win a bunch of times. And just by random chance, there's going to be somebody who wins more than somebody else does. So it doesn't prove anything magical just because somebody's won a few times and got lucky. Okay. And last one, this is less about statistics and more just about personal preference. Would you take the annuity where they get a certain amount every year for 30 years, or would you take the reduced total lump sum once?

Right. So that's more, yeah, as you say, it's more of a personal preference. I get asked that sometimes, and, you know, it might depend whether you really need the money now because you have something you want to do or whether you'd rather do a long-term plan for your future. And, of course, sometimes when people get a big lump sum right away, they spend it in a way that's not very smart, and they blow it, and they spend it on, you know, bad things like drugs. And so maybe it's better to get the annuity, but that's more of a personal thing, as you say, and as a statistician, I'm just not going to make a choice.

See, if it were me, I take the money. I would take the all of it. Because I don't want somebody holding on to my. I'm not a child. If I've won, if I bucked the probabilities, a professor, then if I was lucky enough to win, I'm going to be lucky enough to take that money and make it last forever. And I don't need someone doling it out to me like a child of waiting for his weekly allowance.

Well, I hope you do. Professor Rosenthal, thank you very much. It's been a lot of fun. Okay, thank you. Okay. on the off chance that our guest is wrong, our professor guest is wrong, and you somehow manage to win tonight's lottery, despite the odds being against you, very much against you. Our next guest did beat the odds. Won a fortune, and he's here to give tonight's winner some advice.

Don't go anywhere. This is the Ben Mulrity show. Fortunately, we've got somebody joining us now who's been on the receiving end of being the luckiest guy ever by winning the lottery. but unlike so many people, he bucked the trend and was able to put that money to work for him in the beneficial way that we hope everybody would. Please welcome Timothy Schultz. He's the host of the lottery, dreams, and fortune podcast. Timothy, thank you for being here.

Thank you so much for having me. I really appreciate it. It's great to be here. So can you give us a little bit of a primer on your lottery journey? Absolutely. Yeah, I won 28 years. million powerball jackpot in 1999. Wow.

So in the, yeah, in the middle of the country, in the state of Iowa at the time is where I was. But yeah, it was extremely life-changing. I was one of the youngest winners in history. I was 21 years old. And it really turned my life upside down. Really in an instant, I was working at a gas station for a little over minimum wage and sold myself the ticket. And it just, it just, I mean.

You know how life can go on different tracks? Yeah. It's like my life went on a different track and nothing's ever been the same. Now, you know, we've all seen the documentaries and we've heard the sad stories of people who are taken advantage of by predatory financial advisors or family that comes out of the woodwork and, you know, people turning on a dime, people who are friends are now out cap in hand. And did any of those nefarious influences rear their heads in your life? They did. And I had to learn it the hard way. I mean, it was really a learning curve when I won. I mean, people did come out of the woodwork. I mean, I received acts of letters from strangers. Some of them were supportive, but a lot of them were people, you know, asking for money and handouts. And of course, if you're an empathetic person or you still. sorry for people you're, you know, like me and a lot of people, then it's like, you know, it really

it hurt, you know, not to build to help everybody in the world, but at the same time you have to be financially responsible. And the most difficult part, I think, were family, at least for me, we're family and friends, people that I actually loved and knew personally. And I helped a lot of people, and, you know, I don't regret doing any of that. But some people, it was never enough. And it just, it was not easy to tell people know, but I felt that, you know, I had to listen to financial advisors and do what was financially responsible. And so, well, let's do the learning curve. Let's do the responsible thing today. And let's shorten tonight's winner's learning curve by you imparting some, some very well-earned wisdom. I mean, you've been there. So,

So obviously you're going to someone, that people are going to have to, are going to want to get a financial advisor. How were you able to tell the difference between the ones, the fly by night guys who were going to come out, who could have come in and fleeced you and somebody you could trust? Well, I went with a friend of the family who had experience dealing with estates and had lots of experience doing that. But I have learned over the years because I've been approached by so many. different people. If you win the lottery and you come across millions of dollars instantaneously, there is no shortage or lack of people that want to help you. Everybody wants to be your friend. Everybody wants to as a dream for an idea how they want you to invest the money. Sure. So it's important to go with somebody that has a track record that has done it, not necessarily

they don't have to have done it for lottery winners, but that they've done it time and time and time again with the same amount of money that you have. So if you win 85 million or something like that, then make sure that they have invested that for, you know, time and time and time again. And they're not just staying. If there, if I had a dime, if I had, you know, a dollar for every time that someone told me that they could make me more money. Yeah. If I invested with them, I'd be a billionaire. Well, can I, can I ask if you're willing to disclose, like, how are your personal finances today with 30 years after you won. Well, I'm, and thankfully, I'm doing just fine, and I'm really grateful for the win, but

and for that, for all of that. But the reason is because I've always lived within a means and listened to financial advisors. And one of the best pieces of advice when it comes to winning one of these major prizes, is absolutely do have a plan together before you redeem the ticket and kind of have a, have a financial plan because most people that win the lottery aren't accustomed, they don't already have millions of dollars invested or they're not doing that for their profession. They don't know what to do. So definitely have a plan that sounds before you turn in the ticket. You know, they all and they always say when you go when you go gambling, right? Gamble with, go in knowing you've got you got the money that you want to gamble with. And if you're lucky, that's, you never go below that. And you want to grow that money. have you been able to grow the money that you earned in the lottery?

Yeah, I mean, one of the most eye-opening things that I experienced after winning was just learning the power of compound interest. So, I mean, it's incredible. You can make money by not doing anything. What is that? You know, it's just it didn't seem fair at first, but it's a real thing, obviously. And so it's definitely something you want to do because you don't want to go out there and just, bend everything that you have because it can feel like you've been given a magic wand. It can feel like because all of a sudden you can do all these things you couldn't do before

monetarily. And so it really feels like a superpower. But at the same time, you need to understand how much you can, how far it can or can't go. Because, you know, even with this $85 million, what if more than one person wins? Yeah. You know, there's lots of scenarios. So you really need to know how far will or won't go. Well, people need to realize about compound interest.

I mean, let's say 10 people win and everyone goes home with $8.5 million. You find a good, stable, responsible financial advisor who can invest that and get you, you know, at least 8% a year, which is not unreasonable from some of the best out there. Heck, you can go as high as 10, 11% and a good year. But you would compound that over a couple of decades. And we're not talking generational wealth for your family forever. Oh, yeah. I mean, it's incredible. It's incredible what you can do.

And it's, you know, before I won, I always thought of making money as you trade your time for, you know, I would work 40 to 60 hours a week. I trade my time for this. But then learning that you can invest and make money that way. And that's how, I mean, it's incredible when you talk about that kind of money and you're investing. compound interest. So Timothy, what's your life like now? How do you spend your days? And please tell me

that as responsible as you've been, you've been responsible enough that you've allowed yourself the ability to splurge every now and then and to have and to experience things. Oh, well, I love traveling. So traveling is a big thing. I also, you know, I have, I love journalism. and I did a press conference right after I won the lottery

back in the day, and it sort of inspired me to get into that field. And so I went back to college and studied broadcast news and journalism. And now I'd interview other people that have come across Sudden wealth or they've won the lottery and also experts on the topic. And so I spent a lot of time interviewing people to have also won. In fact, I've interviewed a person that won 50 million from Lotto Max. Oh, wow. And Randy Rush. Yeah. And he has an incredible story. But it's just, it's real people win. Yeah. Everyone has this dream in their head, but, I mean, it's really, it really, never send

more that you can afford to lose if you play, but real people do actually win sometimes. And it's just incredible. And it can be like a fair tale. Tell me about, you know, with life-changing money and the fact that you were able to put it to work for you, what is the thing that you have been able to do with that wealth? that makes you the most proud. Because money, like they always say,

money doesn't buy happiness, but it can give you the space to be happy. Yes. I would say, you know, it can buy time. And I think that's almost, you know,

invaluable. I think time is really, so I think, you know, I went back to college. And I've always had to, and I've pursued many different productions and now doing this podcast

that I'm doing, reviewing other winners. And I think when you come across Southern wealth, whether or you retire, whether you are 21 or you're 65 or at any age, all of a sudden you need a purpose. So if this happens to you, anybody listening to this, then still it's incredible, it's surreal, it's exhilarating, but then the next day, after that, not the next day, it takes a while for that to wear off. But when it wears off, like, what the heck are you going to do, at least for me? I needed a purpose to wake up in the morning and feel like, you know, something you're excited about. And so I think those things are what I'm most proud of is the things I've created, the productions, or, you know, just trying to maintain your mental health and live your best life, pursue your dreams, but do so responsibly, you know, financially.

And lastly, what's the one piece of advice you would give somebody on what they need to do to, to stay rooted, to stay. stay anchored, to stay the person they were before they won? I would say just be true, be true to yourself. The best piece of advice is to definitely love yourself, be true to yourself. Don't listen to any naysayers that say, you know, you're going to go broken five years or whatever. A lot of people say that sort of thing. You can make it, it'll be what, it'll be what you make it.

And it tends to amplify who you already are on the inside. Yeah. So if you're into something, you're just going to be the same person. You'll just be perceived differently. Yeah. Yeah. But it can be amazing. Timothy, I'm so, so glad to have spoken to you.

Like I said, in my mind, I've always had these, I've always heard the cautionary tales. I've never met anybody who's come out the other side, having benefit of it and having, you know, hearing the stories of them growing their wealth. So I'm very glad to be able to share your story. I'm so glad you've had a great life and that you're paying it forward by giving advice and by interviewing winners as well. And I wish you the very best. Thank you so much. That means a lot. I really appreciate it.

Thank you for having me on here today too. Absolutely. I appreciate it. All right. You take care. Hi, it's Alan Cross. Here to announce two more legs of my national speaking tour. November will be busy with stops in Halifax, Sydney and Truro, Nova Scotia.

Then it's Waterloo, Hamilton, St. Catherine, London, Oshawa, Montreal, Ottawa, and Kingston. In addition to the regular free-willing audience Q&A, I'm going to conduct a live performance of my podcast, uncharted crime and mayhem in the music industry. Music and the mob, it's something that we created just for this tour. Tickets at my website, a journal of Musicalthings.com, under the heading Speaking Gigs at the top. But hurry, because some dates are already sold out.

Crime and Mayhem and the music industry on the road this fall. Hope to see you soon.