The Ben Mulroney Show - Mark Carney's budget might be worse than Justin Trudeau's

Episode Date: April 21, 2025

Guests and Topics: -Mark Carney's budget might be worse than Justin Trudeau's with Guest: Regan Watts, Founder Fratton Park Inc., former Senior aide to minister of finance Jim Flaherty -New record set as 2 million vote on first day of advance polls with Guest: Chris Chapin, Political Commentator, Managing Principal of Upstream Strategy -Beware: The next Liberal tax may be on the roof over your head with Guest: Kevin Klein, President of the Winnipeg Sun, political columnist If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! https://globalnews.ca/national/program/the-ben-mulroney-show Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Enjoy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Great to have you here. It is Alex. Here's a video from Mr. Ben Mulroney. Lots to talk about. We are just one week away. One week away today. We head to the polls, unless you were one of the two million out on Friday. And I guess we'll get a couple of more million over the next couple of, well, up until tonight at nine o'clock.

And that's when advanced polls close. Record numbers. We got big, big interest in this election. We should, absolutely, because it's important, right? Pierre-Paul Yevgen Scarborough today making an announcement he'll be spending a lot of time in the 905 and the 416 sign, trying to shore up areas where he thinks he can win a seat. He's promising 2.3 million homes that will be built over the next four years, right? He did say today the platform will be released tomorrow,

it cost it out. These are things I wish we could get beforehand by all the players. But he's certainly taking shots at Kearney today. Maybe we'll be taking shots at Polie of tomorrow, but today we have to take shots at Kearney because it came out on the weekend and you would have to wonder who wrote the platform.

Was it Justin Trudeau or the guy who runs, you know, is a banking governor? Because when you find he adds a quarter trillion dollars to the national debt, you got to ask some questions. So that is what we will do. So let us bring in someone who knows an awful lot about this. Regan Watts, founder of Fratton Park, Incorporated, but also a former senior aide to the late Minister of Finance, Mr. Jim Flaherty. Great to have you, Regan. Good morning, Alex. Great to be back. All right. Let's just talk a little bit about what we should be talking about. I think information that probably would have been good for voters to know before they went to the advance polls, but this $130 billion in new spending

deficits until 2029. And really, I mean, how many times we get promised, you know, new spending and now they're calling it investment, but also that it'll get, you know, paid off and then we never get an end date. Well, and I've said this on this on this show before Alex, and I've said it when you and I've talked over the years, you know, economists know there is no such thing as a free lunch. And Mr. Carney himself is an economist. And he knows that when he quote unquote invests more for Canada, it means that you and your children and your grandchildren are going to be picking up the tab. And you know, the there is a sense that this is not fairness for Canadians, which I think

is why we need a change in Ottawa. The Liberal Party has released a platform and I think that's a good thing. I agree with you, the timing is unfortunate given how far along we are in advanced polls. I believe the Conservatives are releasing their platform tomorrow if my sources are correct. But I think the timing of platforms is just a function of modern campaigns. Although I would say the difference between Mr. Poliev's platform and Mr. Carney's platform is Mr. Poliev has put out far more detail in his announcements up to today than Mr. Carney has. And so we have a liberal platform that is asking for more money, more deficits, more

debt, more unicorns and lollipops that our children and our grandchildren are going to pay off down the road. And for me, that's not the right path for Canada, the right plan for Canada. But we are where we are. Well, we are where we are because we've allowed ourselves to get there. And I think I was more surprised that they actually admitted they were going to do this. It's clear that Mark Carney didn't come into the campaign with much to run on, obviously. He came in about a month and a half ago.

So most of the ideas that he hasn't taken from Paul Yev will be ideas that were liberals and as much on CBC this week. And I mean, this is a budget that was written by the Trudeau government and they just basically tweaked areas and that's what they've said. And it looks like it. So if I'm coming in and trying to sell change, what I'm not doing is spending $130 billion. I think more surprised though, is they admitted they were doing this. Yeah, look, Alex, I completely agree.

That won't surprise you or your listeners. Here's the thing though, this stage of the game, when they've released the platform, we had record turnout this weekend for advanced polls and you alluded this into your intro. Something like 2 million Canadians have already cast their ballots. Just Friday. The liberal- Just Friday. Well, yeah, but Saturday-

It'll be millions more. Yeah, no, it'll be more than that. Sunday, Monday. Right. So people will know, the direction of this election will have been settled certainly by the end of today, which is why you see parties investing as much as they are in get out the vote campaigns and getting people to the polls. And so I do think it's a bit of an affront to democracy for parties to wait this late in the game

to release the platforms. And by the way, the conservative party, I feel should have released a platform a bit sooner for the same reason. You know, so we're asking people to vote on something or vote on a party or vote on a local candidate without knowing what the plan is. But the idea that we can continue to spend and get more

as we did over the last 10 years with Justin Trudeau is crazy. And you know, as I say, Mr. Carney is an economist. He knows that there's no such thing as a free lunch. The problem is, Alex, it's our kids and our grandkids who are going to be picking up that tab. Right. So when you give them the finger on the campaign trail, when you go into vote, I mean, you know, the boomers should be careful about doing that. Right. Because if I'm if I'm one of those people that voted liberal and I thought, OK, I know what I'm doing and

I'm looking today and I'm thinking, oh my God, they are the same government. It's too late. You've already voted for that, right? Again, that's why there's so much anger from people as they see the same MPs, the same advisors, the same people around this team and it's not so different. And then you see, well, they haven't changed anything because they're just going to keep spending. And so, you know, when people see these kinds of things,

it does take a hit against Mark Carney, but it is only a five week campaign. We're in the last week of this thing. And so how do you turn this around? Like, will it have an impact on, you know, towards next Monday? Well, Canadians were delighted in January when the long national nightmare known as Justin Trudeau decided he was going to step down.

The reality is though, at Alex, at this point, the Liberal Party and their Liberal plan under Mr Carney is the same as it is under Mr Trudeau. We talked about all the same players, but the Liberals even admitted this was the same type of policy platform they were going to run with the previous leader in place. So to your question about how to turn this around, look I think there's a number of polls that show some variances. The Main Street I would note had the Conservative Party up by a few. Nick Manos is a pollster who I respect. As the Liberals up by a few. You know, turning this around really comes down to the

ground game and getting your voters out. Conservatives consistently and your listeners will know this, conservatives consistently poll lower in the polls than how they perform on election day. And so for your listeners, just to keep in mind, if you see a poll where the liberals are up by two or three, well, it actually means where the conservatives are tied because conservative voters, you know, anywhere between one to three points come out on election day and show up. And so to, you know, anywhere between one to three points come out on election day and show up.

And so to, you know, to close the gap at the liberals, sort of voters have to get out and vote. Today, advanced polls close at nine, but of course on election day, if you can't get out on advanced polls, that's the way this thing turns around. However, my analytical hat, Alex, says that this election is almost baked.

And, you know, the turkey's in the oven, so to speak. And we're at that point in the baking process where there's very little that's going to be done to change the trajectory that's in place, in my view. It can be really, really dry, or it can come out really undercooked. It can go really bad, that turkey cooking. And so in your mind, you know, where are we headed?

Do you see this as advanced vote? Because normally we would say that goes to the conservatives. To me, it's too hard to understand who the electorate is going out this early. Yeah, look, I think anybody who proclaims they can understand what the advanced vote means in this election is grasping at straws. And I guess depending on your perspective,

those will either be paper or plastic straws. I think because it was a holiday Alex, that people got out and voted. I think it's a great argument for making election day in this country a national holiday. I think turnout is something that we need to do collectively as a society to change. We had a lot of men and women die in many wars

defending our country. And the most basic way we can honor their sacrifices doing our civic duty and showing up and voting. And so I think that it's hard. I'm scrambling a little bit here, Alex, because I'm not sure what the advance polls mean. It couldn't mean everything and it could mean nothing. But I suspect we won't know until say later this week in public opinion polls, the public public opinion polls, what advanced polling means and what impact the debates had on the final outcome.

But as I said earlier, I think this turkey is already set. It's just a matter of waiting for this election to finish and it'll come out of the oven. All right. Could be a sour taste, dour taste or a food poisoning depending on how you like your turkey done. But I appreciate it. We'll see. We'll see next week.

Appreciate it. Thanks, Alex. Take care. That's Regan Watts joining us. And of course, he used to work for the late finance minister, Jim Flaherty. And again, if Mark Carney is going to come in and sell himself as a fiscal steward, then how on earth do you then explain all this new spending that we can't afford? Hi, I'm Donna Friesen from Global National.

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You can find it on Apple podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, and wherever you find your favorite podcasts. I'm Alex Houston, infamous for Ben Mulroney. It's great to have you here on this Monday. I think a lot of people having a nice extra day off, which I think everybody can use. So enjoy that. Lots going on, certainly in the political world. So let's bring in Mr. Chris Chapin to break stuff down. He, of course, is a political commentator, managing principal over at Upstream Strategy.

Hope you had a great weekend. Had a great weekend. Hope for you too, Alex. I bet you love that Leaf game, right? Made it all worth it. I am not the biggest Leafs fan, so I often this time of year cheer against them, so I'm happy for Leafs fans.

It was quite the game last time. We'll give them a win. We'll give them anything that they can get. Coming out today, I guess, Pierre Polly, putting housing in the window again. He announced the building of 2.3 million homes over the next five years and panning Mark Carney's report saying it's like a fantasy. I'm not really sure why the federal government is in the housing business now, Chris, but

they are. Is this going to make much of a difference, do you think, ultimately, down the road? I don't think so. I just don't think this election is about housing anymore. I think it's really shifted to other, I think if you're a Conservative voter, it's cost of living and affordability. And if you're a Liberal voter, it's about Canada's sovereignty and who's best position to respond to Trump. So I think housing has been a very challenging topic at all levels of government for anybody to really own because I'm not sure any voters really believe any of the parties

can do much differently than one another. And we really shouldn't. They don't deserve the trust. I mean, the city, everyone's made it so difficult in this country that it's also, it's also one of those promises, Chris, it'll take years, you know, to get so it's not like it's going to, you're going to vote and wake up on Tuesday to set a house key to a nice detached home in the suburbs. No, it's just not going to happen. And so I think I wouldn't be wasting too much time on housing because I just don't believe any voters really think anybody can do anything differently on it. Yeah. Well, look, people must believe in something because a couple of million people came out on Good Friday.

They skipped over church, but they went out to vote. And that's the advance polls. Now, that's the one day record. We don't know what the record will be for the four days that the voting polls were open. They're open till nine o'clock tonight. But what is, does it tell you anything this time? I mean, are you looking and reading these numbers? No, I mean, I think it'll be interesting to see what the four day total is. I think there's certainly something to be said that if you put election day on a day where a lot of people have it off or an advanced voting day on a day when people aren't at

work, it makes it a lot easier to go spend 20 minutes in line and go vote. So I don't know if that 2 million number comes, but if we see that number replicated over all three days, Saturday, Sunday, and today, Alex, then yeah, I think we're certainly shifting towards a high voter turnout election. I don't think that's really a surprise. We've seen really high voter turnout in what I would call real change elections. And I think there's no question that this is a change election. I wouldn't say Trudeau versus Scheer or Trudeau versus O'Toole really had that feeling to it

the same way Carney versus Poliev does. And so I think liberals are excited to vote. I think conservatives are very excited to vote. And so I do think we'll see high voter turnout in this election. It'd be very interesting to see though if that number's replicated over the weekend. Yeah, no question about it.

And so, you know, it is really get out the vote, right? This is something that is crucial to get, like, it's great that you go on TikTok, it's great that you go to the rallies, it's great that you put your elbows out, but you gotta go to the polls, right? In your mind and given how many campaigns you've worked on, in these days where, you know, polls are kind of baked in

and it looks like Carney's, you know, gonna take this thing, what's going on behind the scenes? I mean, there's still quite a bit of runway, but most people look at this thing as it's already decided. Yeah, I mean, what's happening behind the scenes? I mean, you're trying to do everything you can to mobilize your base, right? I think that was, I think some people were panning Paul DeEve's announcement over the weekend on the single use plastics, but I thought it was actually a pretty smart tactic. You know, if you were a conservative voter, and that's something that just kicks you off you off, a good reminder, it might be a reminder to stay in that line a little longer over the weekend, even though you'd rather get back home and sit on the couch,

to go out and vote. And so I think what you'll see is, I mean, I've already seen some door knockers and door hangers out reminding people that the advance polls are open. That's really all it is at this stage. It's all that work you've put into identifying who said they're going to vote for you, getting to their door and calling them and reminding them to vote, telling them where to vote and offering them a ride to the polls. Yeah, yeah. It's such a small thing, but really like people constantly, I'm sure they ask you, what are we going to do, Alex? What can we do? And I'm like, get off your butt and go help knock on doors or go help to drive people to the voting booth.

If you really wanna help and you're worried about the results, get off your butt and do something. It's exactly that, Alex. I think people think it's a much more complicated science than it really is. It's, you know, do you know if your neighbor's gonna vote? And do you know if your neighbor has voted

and is he gonna vote for the same person you voted for, right? And if the answer to some of those is no, they haven't, but yes, they're going to, it's reminding them to vote. And you know, every vote does truly count as cliche as that sounds. And so if you can get 10 more votes out than your opponent, maybe you win. And if you can get 100 more votes out, you've got a better chance. And if you can get a thousand, even better. So it really just comes down to what we call the ground game at this point. It's finding the voters that you think are going to vote for you and then getting them to vote and getting them and everybody in their household to vote and

trying to find and shake loose as many votes as possible, especially you know allocating all your resources to the ridings that you think are the closest. Yeah and it can come down sometimes to like a handful of votes so So there's that too. It can be very, very close. So to your point on the plastic straw announcement, I mean, it's a very populist kind of thing to do. But I sort of got it. It's like six months ago as I collected my 9,000th thick plastic bag because I don't walk around with them. I said I will vote for the person who gets rid of these damn things. And lo and behold, he's saying he'll get rid of them. That's a popular thing, right? People hate the ban. You either love the ban on Palisac or you hate it.

Absolutely. I mean, it's textbook kind of populist policy. You know, I would argue the liberal policy in the first place didn't really achieve anything because we're all just throwing out these reusable bags and everybody gets angry when they get a paper straw. You know is that really going to be a number one voting topic for most voters? Probably not but I mean I think you and I are probably going to cast a ballot for the same party and I mean I was happy to see it because it it drives me nuts. I got side-eye from my wife last night when I came back from the grocery store with yet another reusable bag because I forgot to take one with me and paid 35 cents for it. So I think it's one of those things. It's just a great motivator policy. And I think for

those that were going to vote for Polly up in the conservatives, even another reason to make sure you go out and cast your ballots with them. Yeah, I will say it's better that that bag beats the paper bag they give you at the hardware store where everything falls out because it's so heavy to carry in a paper bag. But here's the thing, Paulie is out there and he's talking about he's going to cut the consulting fees by 10 billion. This is one of those things, Chris, where we have such a huge public service, we pay them to do a job and then they go and spend 18, 19 billion more on these high-price consultants. And so there are savings there, right?

10 billion a year. But again, we don't have the cost of platform for Poliev. I wish it were out sooner, but will that do the job? I think it might. I don't think any voter truly believes that there aren't efficiencies to be found in government. I think I saw it sounds like they're going to release their platform tomorrow. So, you know, I hope that's not too little too late or just give the opposition, you know, three or four days to just hammer them on it and not get their side of the story out. I, but you know, I'll leave that to the

team up in Ottawa that's, you know, making these calls. But I, again, I think anybody that's seen government at this point, I think, has almost become cynical knowing that there's so much waste and blow in the bureaucracy. So I think him coming out and putting a number on what he's going to cut isn't going to surprise most voters. Albeit, and before I let you go, Chris, the fact is we learned $130 billion in new spending by the Carney government. I think if some of those people that did advance polling would have probably liked to have

known that before. Like I don't know how granny and grandpa are gonna feel knowing that they just left the kids with a whole new whack of spending. Well, I suppose I'd say I don't think granny and grandpas have seemed to care for the last 10 years of what they leave their kids behind in terms of liberal spending.

So, you know, what's another 130 billion on top of the fiscal mess we already have in this country? So I'm a firm believer you should have a requirement that every party puts out a costed platform before voting begins, but that's just my pet peeve. Yeah, no question about it, boy, oh boy. All right, so one more week to go and we'll see what happens on this. Any guesses at this point? Is it like either a landslide or a complete snoozer? I don't know. I think it's all going to come down to Ontario. And if the Tories can close the polls and the gap in the polls here in Ontario, then that ground game matters so much more. And if they can't, then it's going to be an uphill battle for them.

No question about it. It explains why Mr. Poliev is in the 905-416 for the next couple of days. Chris Chapin, appreciate your time. Thanks as always, Alex. Great to have you here. Mr. Ben Moree, back tomorrow. I am Alex Pearson in for him. We have certainly spent some time talking about this news that came in over the weekend, about another $130 billion in new spending that Mr. Carney's government does plan to unleash, right? We've gotten inflation lurking and I hear all this news we're carrying all this you know we've got 1.2 trillion you know in our federal debt and I'm like how on earth are we

gonna pay for this? I don't know how we're gonna pay for all this stuff like are we all supposed to open OnlyFans pages? I don't know how we're going to pay for all this stuff. Like are we all supposed to open OnlyFans pages? I don't know how we're going to pay for all this. I mean when you look at how much our federal debt's doubled since 2015, it's massive. It's massive. And you know we spend more just to service our debt than we do paying transfers to all the provinces. So if you want to kind of put in perspective, $49 billion every year just to service our debt. I mean think about what we could buy. Just think about that, right? And we've got the cancellation of the carbon tax, we have the risk, all these taxes we've been paying and then you wonder

well how is the government going to pay for it? Well they're going to pay for it by the thing that they talk about all the time that they keep telling us they're not going to do and that is bringing in a capital gains tax, right? They'll tax what we own Or won't they Kevin Klein president of the Winnipeg Sun political columnist and former Minister of Environment for Manitoba Was under the conservative government at the time. He joins us now. Hi Kevin Hi Alex. Thanks very much for having me. Happy Easter You know, they they say that you know when someone when someone or a politician or a political party talks about something a lot, and the Liberal Party have talked about capital gains and taxing equity

in our homes for a long, long time, they say they won't do it. And yet, I think you write a really timely piece about this that, well, yeah, they could. This is something that they're not talking about. Why do you think they will well I think they will because of what you alluded to off the top we have no more money we have no more sources for revenue to take from Canadians and this is a you know if you will a gold mine the combined equity in Canadian homes what people actually own after mortgages is worth trillions of dollars and and that own after mortgages, is worth trillions of dollars. And that's not an exaggeration. It is worth trillions of

dollars. And with the federal debt now over 1.4 trillion dollars, they have to find this money somewhere. And I enjoy the fact that you mentioned $130 billion in new spending, with no talk about how they're going to balance the budget or pay for that. So this, this home equity really does become the next source of revenue. And let's be clear, this is not new. Government's been talking about this for a while. They've been having the Canadian housing mortgage corporation do studies on it.

And they started including your home on the tax forms. So the work is in progress and I spent time in government I'll tell you they have people and that's their job. Where can we find money? They hunt for money and this is going to be on the target list. Well they never seem to find money where you know the waste actually is right? I mean okay, maybe they can just charge the capital gains on liberal voters, right? Because they're all about this. Because for most of us, certainly those of us in the private sector, that's a retirement, right? Anything you take out of our home or whatever, that is it for savings for old age and and certainly for generations

under the boomer generation. That's all we've got. Yeah. And if you look at it, right. So I just did some average math on it. And so if somebody had a five hundred thousand dollar home there, they had a hundred thousand dollars left on their mortgage or they had a six hundred thousand dollar home. So let's say their home equity is five hundred thousand dollars. And hypothetically, if the government charged one percent annual home equity tax, that's five grand a year. And let's say just for fun, there's only five million homes in Canada.

We know that there's way more. But let's say there's five million homes that have $500,000 equity. That's $25 billion a year into the government's pocket. They're going to want to take that. And I think that they see that as an opportunity to play that game again, right? It's not we're not going after your money. This is more of a friendly tax. This is a way for us to make life better for everybody, and we're just going to tax those that we're lucky enough and smart enough, I guess, to pay off their mortgage, not to overspend, to control their spending, unlike what the government's done, especially for

nine years. Yeah. Well, when Mark Carney starts using words like government investment, I just go, okay, I'm out. Like, governments don't invest, right? They're not investing in my pocket, so they're not going to invest in anyone. That's a new one. Yeah. And I think you really see a lot of people, I got a lot of message, oh, it's a conspiracy theory. And no, it is not. They have done this. They've actually looked into this several times.

Well, they tried to do it. It's leaked. Yeah, I mean, it's out there. We're running out of money. Again, off the top, you spoke about it. The fact that Canadians don't understand the last nine years of very bad fiscal policy has put us in this position. And that's a fact, right?

It's irrefutable. We're in a very, very, very bad position. They're going to have to get the money. And yes, he eliminated the public facing carbon tax, and you got to replace that. So we're going to replace it against consumers. You take a home equity tax. In theory, when you explain it as a politician, and I've been around too many of them, it'll be a nice thing, right? Oh, we're only going to take 1%. Yeah, it won't be taking anything. And it'll be called a fairness tax, a caring tax. And it'll be a nice thing, right? Oh, we're only gonna take 1%. We don't be taking anything. And it'll be called a fairness tax, a caring tax.

And it'll just be like when you move into a condo and they say, oh, it's just a little fee that we're gathering and then we don't do it anymore. It's like it never stops being collected. But this is a reality, which is why you almost have to say to the young people, look, Gen X, we cannot afford to pay your bills too, because we'll have to pay for our stuff.

If you don't vote this election, you're on your own because there's not enough money to go around. So that's where we're at. And then this didn't get a lot of attention, as you well know, about this $40 billion that was basically spent by this government in the last couple of weeks. And the governor general was the one who approved this new federal spending. And it was done all under this special warrant. And I'm thinking, OK, who the hell allowed this?

And how did they get away with it given parliament was closed? Well, this is interesting because I've experienced this when your government goes into a goes into an election vote. Of course, you have very limited powers. The ministers have powers to keep the government going and can do emergency spending and such. But I hear a lot of people complaining about how Trump manages his country and he's implementing using special powers. But isn't this what we just did? Isn't this what the Liberal government just did, gave that special power to spend $40 billion?

I can't find, I've done the research, I cannot find a single dollar that was spent to make life better for a Canadian. Well, certainly, yeah, I mean, we've had a lot of, you know, they talk about having our back in that, but I don't hear any EI packages being rolled out or special EI programs, you know, for whatever, you know, they were saying that they would do for those in auto sectors or those hit by tariffs in that. This is like, I don't even know what this money is for. It's just 40 billion on top of this new 130 billion. Well, and it was 150 million to the CBC for emergency needs. Well, what was the emergency in case they lose the election? Like, I mean, you know, we gave them

150 million dollars and then you have a reporter in the White House basically doing Mark Carney's work by bringing up the Trump in the 51st state, which dawn quiet, right? Polls had started to change because of that. Then all of a sudden out of the blue, coincidence? And was that 150 used for government to like to cover the election more? Did they need that? To me is political interference. And I sat in those seats. I was there. there I've seen this I would not be shocked and I see where this money is going and it's all to special interest groups as far as I can see it doesn't help the average Canadian you have Canadian more Canadians now than ever lining up at food banks I have kids that can't buy a house that make good money they'll never be able to buy a house. And yet, and yet, and yet, and yet, we could possibly have a liberal majority by next week,

which is the most insane it is like, I just can't believe the like delusion. But that's where we're at. I'm as frightened by this as you are. I'm hopeful though, that with the numbers we're seeing at the advanced polls, that people are finally gonna say, okay, I need to exercise my democratic right. And don't look at personalities. That's what I've been trying to tell everybody. As somebody who was in politics, look at the policies. Because what fiscal policy, other than spending your money

and going deeper in debt, as Mark Carney put forward? Yeah, I don't need to be friends with anyone. I just need to be able to afford my country that is safe and standing on its own. I'm out of time, Kevin. I very much appreciate yours. Thank you very much. I appreciate you the opportunity to speak with you. 100 percent. That's Kevin Klein, president of the Winnipeg Sun. Nissan? or choose three-year prepaid maintenance. Hurry into your local Nissan dealer today. $1,500 applies to Pathfinder and Select Rogue models

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