The Ben Mulroney Show - Our Monday Political Panel does the math on the federal budget vote

Episode Date: November 17, 2025

Guest: Max Fawcett, Lead Columnist for Canada's National Observer Guest: Dimitri  Soudas, Former Director of Communications for Prime Minister Stephen Harper If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://link.chtbl.com/bms⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Also, on youtube -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@BenMulroneyShow⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Insta: ⁠⁠⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠⁠⁠ Executive Producer:  Mike Drolet Reach out to Mike with story ideas or tips at [e-mail] Enjoy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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we speak the same language you do. Business. So join the more than 400,000 Canadian entrepreneurs who already count on us and contact Desjardin today. We'd love to talk, business. Welcome back to the Ben Mulleruny show. It's Monday and we like to end every Monday in style with Max Fawcett.

Lead columnist for Canada's National Observer and Dimitra Soutis. He's former Director of Communications for Stephen Harper. Gentlemen, welcome to this week in politics, the Monday edition. Good morning. All right. We've got the budget vote today. It's a big one. And where do you see things going today?

I mean, Dimitri, you were, you floated the idea that, that this could be 1979 all over again. Do you still stand by that? Well, out of stubbornness or of reality, I do. The magic number is four. Four members of parliament are required to either abstain or not show up to vote today. There's a tricky part to all of this is that once upon a time, everybody voted in person and therefore the last party to vote, which in this case is the NDP, is able to see which way it's going.

Whereas now, those who are in the House of Commons vote first and those who want to vote remotely have to have to wait. So let's take it party by party. The block will vote against and every single block MP is going to be there. The NDP, difficult to tell where they're at right now, but out of the seven MPs, I'm told four or five will be voting against the budget. with the interim leader, as well as their only Quebec MP who are thinking of abstaining, Don Davis, who does not want to take the NDP into an election. Elizabeth May is voting against, but we're still short a couple of votes. And then the question that begs to be asked is, is Pierre Paulyev going to ask every single one of his MPs to vote against the budget?

or will he simply tell a couple of them to not show up or to abstain, which will have some form of impact on the base of the party that wants the liberals gone yesterday? Max, what do you think of that assessment? Dimitri came correct with some numbers. He's got numbers to back up his theory. What do you make of it? I respect him sticking to his theory, but I don't think it's right. I think if you look at the way the prime minister,

is acting and it doesn't seem to be troubled by this at all. He's scheduled to go on an international trip, I believe, the day after the vote. I think they have the numbers and I think they've had the numbers for a while now. I think a couple of the NDP MPs will abstain. Elizabeth May over the weekend actually told the CBC she hadn't decided how she was voting on the budget. I think she will find a way to get to yes or at least get to abstention and this thing will sail through. and we will, you know, kick the, the can down the road to probably the spring when we'll do this all over again. We do it all over again.

But, you know, stranger things have happened than a vote not going the way a government wants. And, you know, sometimes someone forgets their phone or who knows of it. Because I guess that's the only way to not vote in one way, shape, or form anymore, right? Because because you have the ability to vote remotely, you'd have to claim that, you'd lost your phone or you didn't have the power to charge it up. And I guess, Dmitri, what you suggested off the top is probably news to a lot of people about how you vote and the process by which and who votes at what point. So we're no longer in a world where the NDP would be the final, the final group to vote

instead. It's the people voting remotely, which could change the dynamics of how a vote goes. I find that really, really interesting. But with all that context, I think we'll all be watching or. Some will be watching with bated breath and others. I will. Yeah, you will, absolutely. Okay, I wanted now talk about a story about a liberal MP from London, Ontario, named Ariel Cayabaga.

And she, over nine days, she billed the taxpayer, $173,574, and that's, I don't know how to say it. That's just a lot of money for an MP to spend ever. I still live in a world where I remember Bev Oda of the conservative party getting the boot for, what is it, a $13 glass of orange juice that she built on a trip when she was in London. And so I'm trying to figure out the delta between her, like the space between Bev Oda and this Kaya Baga woman. How is this okay, Max Fawcett?

Well, it's okay if it's them paying out vacation pay that was owed to staffers in the minister's office that had been built up over the course of many years. And, you know, it's sort of a, it's an HR issue. And the problem here is that she has not done a good job of explaining where this money went and why it was paid out in the way it was. And, you know, I think she was asked, you know, did any of the people who got paid out work on your campaign? And she wasn't able to give a clear answer. So, you know, as per usual with the liberal government, the problem is not necessarily. in the behavior or in the policy. It's in the way they explain it to the public.

And yeah, we need some transparency around this because if this is a legitimate expense, the public needs to know. If it's not, she needs to be held accountable for it. Either way, in the absence of a clear narrative, a clear explanation, it simply fosters more mistrust with government. And that is a net negative to everyone, regardless of which party you may align with. Dmitri, it may be unfair. I don't know.

It may be unfair to compare the Bevota situation to this one. It may be apples to oranges. It's hard not to, though. It's hard for me not to think of Bevota when I see this sort of thing. What do you think? Well, it is apples to oranges, Ben, because Bevota left cabinet and Bevota was one of the most competent and hardest working ministers. She left cabinet over $13 a glass of orange juice. Here we're talking about $173,000 in 9.000.

days. So what jumps out in the story is not just a number, but the context matters. So Parliament was proroged when this occurred. So there was no house business. And Ms. Kaya Baga attended exactly one cabinet meeting, Ben. But somehow the cost of taxpayers ballooned as if a major legislative battle was underway. The explanation that the government offered vacation pay doesn't settle the matter. It raises two deeper questions. First, why was vacation pay suddenly triggered during a nine-day period that conveniently over-overlapped with the start of an election campaign? Maybe because they were leaving the ministry and then going to campaign. And second, whether the staff were effectively kept on the government payroll while contributing directly

or indirectly to political operations. So Treasury Board rules, if you look at them, are clear. you cannot even give the appearance that public resources are being used for partisan end. The political risk and all this is simple. Stories like this reinforce a narrative that the liberal government is sloppy with public money at a very moment where Canadians are feeling squeezed. Mortgage renewals, take care of fees, groceries, and the list goes on. So appearances matter almost as much as facts. Well, yeah, appearance matters about,

So what, Max, what do you think, what is the vehicle to get the answers here? Are we going to have the, I love the partisan theater that is committee meetings. They are, they fit perfectly onto a, the interactions fit perfectly into a Twitter feed. I can enjoy those, like the drama that they are. Is that the most effective way to get to the truth here? Yeah, I think so. You know, an adversarial environment where there are rules and where information can be, brought to the, you know, brought to the table.

I think Dimitri is almost entirely right. You know, if this was vacation pay that was used to give these people financial resources to work on her election campaign, that is completely offside. And he's right that, you know, even the appearance of public money being used to facilitate partisan ends is, is an instant non-starter. And so if that's the case, and it's not clear from the reporting that it is, but if that is the case, there have to be consequences here. I mean, you can't kick her out.

Yeah, well, I was just saying, kick her out of cabinet because she's, what, what should the consequences be? You know, there's sanction perhaps for her as a member of parliament. And there's a huge reputational hit here. You know, I think to Dimitri's point, this would reinforce the narrative that is out there, that the liberal government and the liberals are a little sloppy with public funds and are willing to kind of commingle them with their own interests. And that is something that is going to understandably and justifiably hurt them in the next election, that comes. And so it's incumbent upon the liberals to get out ahead of this and tell their side of the story if they have one. Because if they don't, this is this is not a good thing. All right. Well, Max Fawcett and Demetra Soutis don't go anywhere. When we come back from the break,

so much more to talk about on this Monday edition of this week in politics, including, is the premier of British Columbia the most under pressure premier in the country as well as does Seattle hold the title of the most ultimate socialist mayor in North America. Don't go anywhere. The Ben Mulroney Show continues. Welcome back to the Ben Mulroney show and welcome back to Max Fawcett and Dimitri Soutis because it's Monday's edition of this week in politics. And Premier David Eby got a ringing endorsement from his members of the party when he got an 82%

endorsement for his leadership of the party and hence the leadership of the of british columbia writ large and he has said that i mean used his appearance at the convention to highlight several natural resource projects he pointed out that the tanker ban the federal tanker ban is here to stay he but he did say that he's going to turn british columbia's natural resources into the wealth that it needs to sustain strong public services for generations to come. And, Dimitra, I want to start with you because he's, you know, it feels like he's, I don't know, I don't know how that statement is going to be received in a place like Alberta where, yeah, sure, we're not talking about a, there's no pipeline to speak of yet coming out of Ottawa.

But he's saying no pipeline's ever going to come here. So they've got national resources that he says that they can't. export, but he, because he has the privilege of having a West Coast, he can do and say whatever he wants. I feel that that statement won't be well received in Alberta. What do you think? Well, no, of course it won't be well received because Alberta wants to get its resources, primarily oil, not only to the West Coast, but also to the East Coast. On this issue, I would pay much more attention to what the government of Canada and the province of Alberta will come up with and if a if the two governments come up with some kind of an

agreement that leads to a promoter coming in and saying we're going to build this pipeline and then it moves towards removing the tanker ban I'm not sure that David Eby will be able to sustain the pressure at the same time when we talk about a ringing endorsement David Eby received 93% from his party to years ago. So this is a nine-point drop to 82%. So there is anger from within his own base that came from two key elements in my view. First, the BC Ferry's contract with a Chinese state-owned shipyard. And Eby is trying to also contain some damage within his own party. So I wouldn't say that right now David Eby should be comfortably sitting in his leadership chair

because there is some anger within his own ranks. Max, there is a way to read what he said as quite politically astute in that by making these strong pronouncements, he's able to keep a certain type of supporter at bay. But then if the government in Ottawa comes at him and says, look, we're taking upon ourselves to reverse course on the tanker ban, and now we have found that there is a business case for a pipeline and we're going to work on it whether you like it or not. He can say, look, I did everything I could. I came out against one, but this is a federal jurisdiction.

It's not that there's nothing I can do here, but I am, I do recognize how things work. How do you see it as somebody who's actually based in Alberta? Sure, I see a few things. Number one, David Eby does not care even the tiniest bit how his words are interpreted in Alberta, and he shouldn't. They are not his voters. They are not his constituents. You know, ironically, the decline in the support within his party is because of his support for fossil fuels. That is what is driving some of the erosion in that support is his willingness to say LNG projects are a good idea and we're going to support them. But he is drawing a clear

line between what is in British Columbia's best economic interests and what isn't. And there are huge risks associated with shipping oil through the North Coast to the tourism, industry to the fisheries industry that it's just not in bc's best interest um lngy uh contrary to what i think was said here is is very much in alberta's interest you know building more lngy terminals in bc materially helps alberta it improves the the price that it gets for its resource uh it improves the royalties that are paid to it so it is very much uh in alberta's best interest to have david eb saying this in alberta should be careful not to overplay its hand and lose that support that is the point that Evie has been making all along is that if Alberta pushes too hard on this

oil pipeline, which by the way, still doesn't have a proponent, still doesn't have a business case, they may lose the support for the thing that will actually happen and is actually helping Alberta's economy right now, which is the LNG projects. You know, he also has, he also has these massive other files on his, on his desk, which tells me that he's going to need every single, every single point in his, in that political capital at 82% to get through the rest of his term with the Richmond land ruling and the couch and garbage situation. I don't know that there is another premier in this country that has more on his plate

than David Eby does, Dimitri. Ask the Quebec Premier who's currently polling at 14% in the polls in his province. David Eby still has relatively strong popular support. The big question here is, is he going to be able to reconcile the debate within his own base between environmental protection, climate change and jobs? As Max mentioned, LNG is expanding, mining is expanding. His own energy minister, I think, said that climate targets won't be met. So there is a warning on the table here from his own base that one, would take seriously. I mean, the

NDP still supports its leader. Let's be clear here. I don't want to overstate things. Just not blindly. That's the message he should be taking from this weekend. All right, let's move on. I want to look south of British Columbia into Washington State. The

city of Seattle has a new mayor with no previous experience who's a progressive to say the least. One against an incumbent that had a lot of money behind them and very similar to the origin story of the socialist mayor of New York City, Zoran Mamdani. What do we make of the, is this the beginning

of a trend max faucet that so long as you can look I don't want to attack these people. They haven't really done anything yet. But the promises that they're making, I don't know, are necessarily promises that they can fulfill. But maybe it speaks to a larger problem that traditional forces in municipal politics need to be taking seriously. They've got to wake up to the fact that the way business has done in the past is not how it's going to get done in the future. I think it speaks to a broader, you know, broader trend, broader movement throughout the United States and frankly throughout the Western world, which is the status quo,

business as usual, is not good enough for people anymore. And they're looking for something that is appreciably meaningfully different. You know, whether that's Donald Trump, whether that's Zoran Mamdani, whether that's the new mayor of Seattle, people who are willing to shake things up, who are willing to make promises that I think speak to their material circumstances. You know, for all of the concerns about Mamdani's, you know, quote-unquote socialism, I mean, his big selling feature to New Yorkers was that he was going to make life more affordable for them. The same thing happened here in Seattle, not here, the same thing happened in Seattle with the new mayor.

She was talking about making life more affordable. That is the through line here for people right now. To folks who want to make this a sort of 21st century red scare, you know, the biggest socialist in the United States right now is Donald Trump, who is taking ownership stakes in companies, he's collecting new taxes and distributing it to his favorite industries. He's buying up ownership stakes in Canadian companies. And I want to give the last minute. We only have about 45 seconds left to Dimitri, so I want you to close this up.

so max hit the nail of the on the head cost of living and competence could not compete with anger over affordability of things if you look at the incumbent mayor the outgoing mayor bruce harrell he actually had a record that most incumbents would envy but his opponent um tapped directly into the front frustration on rent on child care on groceries on transit basically everything costs more and voters are starting to feel that the political establishment does not have an answer. So cost of living beyond Seattle, beyond New York is the main issue that incumbents should be focusing and should be worried about. Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining me. We will be paying attention to this vote tonight. You're either going to be right or you're going to be wrong, Dimitri. We'll be paying very close attention. Thanks so much, guys.

Thank you. 50-50. And if you want to keep the conversation going, follow me on. Twitter at Ben Mulroney. Follow the show on Instagram at Ben Mulroney. Don't forget to show up on YouTube and enjoy the rest of your Monday. We'll see you tomorrow on Tuesday. There, the last one.

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