The Ben Mulroney Show - the political panel – Friday edition. Trump and Carney back at it?

Episode Date: July 11, 2025

Guest: Chris Chapin, Political Commentator, Managing Principal of Upstream Strategy - Guest: Warren Kinsella, Former Special Advisor to Jean Chretien and CEO of the Daisy Group - If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://link.chtbl.com/bms⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Also, on youtube -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@BenMulroneyShow⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Insta: @benmulroneyshow Twitter: @benmulroneyshow TikTok: @benmulroneyshow Enjoy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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there's regular cold and then there's the mountains are blue cold mountain cold refreshment. Coors light. The chill choice. Celebrate responsibly. Must be legal drinking age. Welcome to the Ben Mulroney Show. Thanks so much for joining us on this Friday. And because it's Friday, it's time for the This Week in Politics panel, our Friday edition,

where we look back at some of the really big stories affecting each and every one of us. And no two better people to help guide us through what's important, what's not, what we should pay attention to, what's just noise, is Chris Chapin, political commentator, managing principal at Upstream Strategy, and Warren Kinsella we should pay attention to. What's just noise is Chris Chapin, political commentator managing principle upstream strategy and Warren Kinsella, former special advisor to Jean Chrétien and CEO of the Daisy Group to the both of USA. Happy Friday.

Happy Friday. So we got to talk about this letter that Donald Trump wrote. And I'm sure you guys are on top of the news, but for those of who are just joining us now, we are global national bureau in Washington touched base with a White House spokesperson for clarification on this whole thing.

And they confirmed that this 35% tariff would not be put on anything that was USMCA compliant. Energy and POTASH would stay at 10% tariff, won't be bumped to 35%. Not only that, and I think this is probably the most important part, and I'll come to you first, Warren, is that the official said that no paper had been drafted, no final decisions had been made by the president,

so this is just his stream of consciousness that he lobbed like a grenade into the Canadian economy. Well, it would be nice to believe that, but I don't believe that because I checked it out and it's an official letter from the President of the United States with his letterhead up at the top of it and his signature down at the bottom. So it's real. And in fairness to Trump, it's what he said he was going to do.

It's what he campaigned on. It's what he believes. He's not a free trader. No, and Warren, I get that. I don't wanna interrupt you, but I do wanna inform where you're gonna go next. Square that with the digital sales tax that he said was the sticking point

to allowing us to continue our negotiations on this new defense and trade agreement with the United States. We did what he wanted, and then he comes back with this this new accusation of fentanyl and God knows what else. So explain, just make it make sense to me. Well I can't because, but he, what I'm saying, I'm actually defending Donald Trump. This is Donald Trump being Donald Trump. This is consistent with what he's done every single time since his speech at the inauguration.

10 days later, he concocts this fentanyl cockamamie story. This is him doing what he has done on our banking system, on supply management, on dairy, you name it. This is what he does. What I don't get, Ben, is what Mark Carney is doing. Why has Mark Carney persuaded himself that Donald Trump's going to stop being Donald Trump and suddenly observe the rules of the international order and observe free trade? He's not going to.

And Warren, I don't know if that was ever the end game for Mark Carney. The end game was for the liberals to hold on. Well, what is it? Well, let's ask Chris, because look, Chris, we all remember when Mark Carney was in the pub and someone referred to him as Churchill, and he agreed. He didn't say, let's let history be the judge.

He said, no, no, you're right. And the choices between Churchill and Neville Chamberlain, the choices between fighting them on the beaches or capitulating to Adolf Hitler, like that was the choice that he asked Canadians to make. And so to turn around, I don't know what he's gonna do now, but is he gonna turn around and say,

oh, well, Donald Trump is Donald Trump and no one can work with him, in which case, well, that wasn't what that's that. That wasn't good enough for for Churchill. So what did you actually sell us and who how are you actually governing? Well, I mean, he sold us, you know, a pretty clear message, Ben, which was elbows up, right? That's what he told Canadians is he he'd go in and fight for them.

And I think part of what we're starting to see is, at least from my opinion, is we thought there was a deal to be made. You know, we thought of, you know, Canadians clearly thought if they picked the right, the right fighter, the right prime minister, they'd get a deal with the president. And I'm starting to believe that's just not what the president wants. It seems like anytime we get closer to a deal, Trump moves the yardsticks further and further down the field. And that's because I think he has fun with doing this.

I think he's obsessed with winning. I think he's obsessed with being, you know, Superman for America. And that means that, you know, every time Canada maybe gets a little closer to signing an agreement, he changes, you know, he changes the goal. And so whether that was the digital sales tax, or now we're back to square one with fentanyl, uh, I think he likes this and that's the challenge for Mark Carney, because I don't think there is a deal to be had. I I'm becoming less and less certain that we're going to sign a new Kuzma in,

in a year's time, because I don't think the United States and the president ever want to sign that deal again. I don't want to, I don't want to beat a dead horse here. And I'm not trying to be a contrarian or pick at the liberals for the sake of picking at the liberals. I want them to get a deal. I want this to all happen.

And yet we weren't promised a fighter who was going to fight for... We were promised that this was the guy who was going to lead us through the crisis. That's what we were promised. And those are two different things, right? We were promised results, not process. And right now it feels like those who are defending Mark Carney are going to default

to process and say, well, no, but he's the steady hand, but he's the big brain. No, no, that's fine. But we were promised results. And if he's not going to deliver results, I feel like I was sold a bill of goods worn Well, it may be a Machiavellian the strategy and play here You know, I'm trying like I've got a column coming out of post media on Sunday about this And I'm trying to figure out what the hell Mark Carney's doing Yeah, cuz you know, here's Trump again being Trump and saying I'm gonna violate any deal that you come up with anyway

Yeah Maybe what he's trying to do is rent out the clock and give himself enough time and cover to come up with deals with Europe and Asia and so on and have alternative markets for Canadian exports. So we are not as vulnerable to the United States. That's a reasonable strategy if that's what he's in fact doing. But he's also hurting his own credibility because as both of you have just pointed out,

it looks kind of naive for Mark Carney to believe that Donald Trump is gonna change his spots and it's gonna be anything other than what he is, which is somebody who is against free trade. So there may be a strategy there, I just don't know what it is. Chris, let's talk about the imminent cuts that are coming to the public service in Canada.

Mark Carney is saying things we haven't heard from a liberal government since Warren's old boss, that there are some tough choices that are gonna have to be made. And one of those sectors in which he's gonna find those savings is going to be right sizing the public sector. Now put that into context of the previous election, Pierre Poliev lost his seat to Bruce Fanjoy that he'd held for 20 years and one of the drums that Fanjoy was was beating was Pierre Poliev is coming for

your public sector jobs. He is going to cut a hundred thousand jobs for the public sector and I'm the guy who's not gonna let that happen. So again, make that make sense. I'm not sure I can. I mean, listen, I think Warren just spoke about it. It's the, I do get the sense the prime minister and the liberals are trying to rag the puck and maybe try to figure out what they can do. And part of that is if we continue on this trade war with

the United States, it's going to cost the country a fortune and we don't have that money. So it's either we go into deficit or we find some savings. And so I'm fully in favor of Mark Carney and the liberals trying to find efficiencies in the public sector. I was told as a conservative for years, that was impossible. You know, there was no such thing as these mythical efficiencies that we spoke about that could find you, you know, $25 billion in savings, but I'm pretty sure there's a good chance Mark Carney might just find those. So I think that is the strategy. I think it's we're not going to increase revenues overnight.

We can't afford to tax Canadians because, you know, everybody's living paycheck to paycheck. Certainly, you know, the majority of Canadians are so, so what can you do? And it's fine savings where they're easily found. And I think, you know, unfortunately, that's Ottawa. It is quite, you know, uh, hypocritical that, like you said, Bruce Fandreau was elected by going door to door, you know, fear mongering to everybody in the riding of Carlton that Pierre Pauli was going to cut their job. But I mean, I suppose Pierre Pauliev is gonna get the last laugh when half his former constituents do in fact lose their job. Well, we'll have to wait and see on that.

I certainly don't hope anyone loses their job, but sometimes it's the reality, right? Sizing is what you need to do. Warren, real quick in about 30 seconds, when we hear the news that we've just been talking about the uncertainty that comes from a bad actor like Donald Trump, does it make it more likely that our prime minister's rhetoric on pipelines becomes more definitive?

Well, that's one thing he's been quite clear on. And if you look at that Angus Reed Institute poll that came out about two weeks ago, three weeks ago, it was very clear that Canadians from coast to coast, right, left, old, young, are decidedly on the side of the argument that we need to get our products to market. We need to get our resources to market. So there's a lot of support for that. So you see everybody from, you know, Doug Ford in Ontario to Wab Kanu in Manitoba, echoing that.

There's two carve outs though. We're going to hold on. I'ming that. There's two carve outs though. We're gonna hold on. I'm gonna ask you about those carve outs when we come back from the break. Don't go anywhere. This is the Ben Mulroney Show. Welcome back to the Ben Mulroney Show. I'm very pleased to have on this political road trip as my co-pilots, Chris Chapin and Warren Kinsella. Let's talk about the crossroads that the NDP federally find themselves at in the form of a leadership contest following the worst showing that they've had in 60 years at the polls in their existence and losing official party status and their leader losing his seat. Jagmeet Singh went the way of the dodo bird and now the NDP are going to be picking a new leader by the end of March of next year.

They have settled on a six month race starting in September with a $100,000 entry fee. Now I don't know that the NDP as a party can find $100,000, let alone candidates that want to run it, but that's their problem to figure out. The question is, like most parties do, what do we do? Was our message, was our tone, was our vision wrong? Or was it not pure enough that happens a lot in the in the conservative party that happens a lot when republicans lose in the states the

democrats are going through that as well uh do we go the way of the extreme voices in our party or do we tack more to the traditionals uh in the party uh chris uh let's start with you. What kind of candidate should be presenting and for them to achieve true resurrection, what's the best version of this party for 2025? Oh, I think you're on mute, my friend. So we'll go to Warren. Warren, same question, different person. Well, I think it is possible for the NDP to be sensible social Democrats. And Wab Kanu has shown that EB and British Columbia has shown us that it is possible. But the federal NDP became a rump.

They became an extension of Justin Trudeau's government and they were obviously hurt by that. And they also started getting more concerned about Gaza than Guelph and kind of losing the narrative, losing their purpose. And I see no indication that they've learned the lesson of the election campaign. One of the leading candidates supposedly for their leadership is Avi Lewis. And Avi is a friend of mine. I used to be on his show, full disclosure, he's a great guy, you know, but he's the author of the Leap Manifesto with his wife, Naomi Klein. And you know, it's, it's crazy. It's like a reads like something out of the Soviet Union. So it, I really don't get any indication or sense that they've learned their lessons,

and that they're going to correct their course. But we will see. Chris, let's let's take this in a like, let's have a thought experiment here. If, if, if you believe that the the country needs an NDP, if you believe that they have, at the at their best been the conscience of parliament, right, and if they stand up for the things that they believe they can get other people conscience of parliament, right? And if they stand up for the things that they believe they can get other people to to champ other parties that will form

government champion, then you believe that at their strongest, they have been the the the reasonable, relatively reasonable voice for workers rights for environment, environmental rights and the like. Is there a play here for those people who are getting crowded out by the Eve Englers of the world, by the loud obnoxious trolls that are single-minded in their self-righteous attacks on anyone who disagrees with them? Maybe they go off and lift a page

from the conservative coalition and go start their own party. Yeah, it's a tough question, Ben, because I think you have to ignore the realities of what other political parties are able to do, right? I think you look at what the conservatives have done at the federal level, but at many provincial levels, and they've eaten the NDP's lunch on blue collar workers and union workers because they put forward a message that resonated for them. And we've seen that shift just about across the entire country where blue collar workers are with conservatives. And the liberals have

done a great job being the voice for environmentalists. And so if you believe in environmental and climate change and that sort of stuff, you're probably camped pretty hard in the liberal tent right now. So is there a need for a voice of reason, maybe that conscience on the left in parliament? I suppose so. I agree with Warren though. I think the NDP has gotten so lost in the weeds in most jurisdictions, but not all, right?

I think Rob Canoe is a perfect example. Somebody maybe a little left the center that you know Understands what you know the majority of people you know what resonates with the majority of people even if they might not vote for him He knows how to not offend them and that's what a lot of the folks on the left of have lost sight of and so From a from a political party standpoint you need to do some soul-searching and I'm perplexed Why they thought a six- month race was a good idea. I understand we're in a minority parliament, but I don't have a clue who they think is gonna rise from the ashes in the next six months, that's going to put

them in a better position than maybe waiting out 12 months, maybe waiting out 18 months to see if somebody like Bob canoe might take a take a thought at running for the federal leadership, because there are some strong new democrats out there that I think could lead this party. Well, sure. I just don't think you're going to find it. Well, I don't think you're going to find anything in the next six months. Chris, that's got to be the most frustrating thing for those who in good faith really do want to rebuild this party. And they look to the Wabka news and say, if only we could get a guy like that to resign

from his leadership position as the premier of Manitoba and come help us rebuild, we would have a shot and we'd have a shout of crowding out those louder, more activist voices in favor of building a true left of center coalition. But the problem is he is building a province. He is in control of the finances. He controls the levers of power. People listen to him. For him or anyone like him who has achieved success

under an NDP banner, most of them provincially, there's no way they're gonna give up those, either being in power or having a shot at power to go sort of put out the dumpster fire that is this rump of a former glorious socially progressive party. No, of course not. I mean, you're talking about a party that has seven seats right now. I used to joke here in Ontario,

when the liberals got knocked down to seven seats, they were the minivan party in Ontario, you've got the NDP, the minivan party across the country right now. So no, nobody's gonna, unfortunately, for their sake, and that's why I do think they need to go rebuild. I think you look at what the NDP did provincially here in Ontario, they called a pretty quick leadership race after the 2018 defeat, no, sorry, the 2022 defeat. And you find yourselves in a position

where it's very challenging. And in Marit Stauw's case, nobody ran against her. Yeah, but then. And that's, I think that's a position they might find themselves in federally. Warren, like what do you make of it? Because on one hand, the frustrated people at the federal level look to these golden boys and girls provincially and say, look how successful they've been.

We can bring them back into the federal fold and they can then take us to where they took. But it's because they've reached the top of the mountain provincially, there's no chance they're gonna join this sinking ship federally. No, it's like the Doug Ford thing. It's like, okay, Doug Ford's a successful

three term majority premier. He's gonna actually give up power to be the leader of the opposition in Ottawa for four or maybe even eight years. Like, are you on drugs? It's just not going to happen. Same thing with Wab Kanu. Like you're going to stop being premier of Manitoba to lead a party that isn't even a recognized party in the House of Commons.

Give your head a shake. I know it's going to happen. They need. They need to look at what they've got and what they've got ain't so good. And what they got ain't so good. And Wab Kanu, he's got so many good things going for him. Nevermind the fact he's young and he's positive and he's confident and people listen to him and he's raising the profile of that province.

But he's speaking so ambitiously about that province, about building these national infrastructure programs that could turn, that he believes could turn Manitoba into a halved province for the first time in its history. He wants that accomplishment. He wants that accolade. Now that positivity, if he's able to do that, that there may be a halo effect

that eventually helps the NDP federally, but he needs to build that in Manitoba for now. This is like, Chris, I honestly don't see. I don't see this being successful for them in any way. I mean, Chris, I don't even see a whole lot of people showing up to want to run this thing. Well, that's that's exactly kind of what I was getting at, Ben. And that's why like you listen to I think WAP canoe is going to leave, you know, the Premier's chair in Manitoba. Absolutely

not. But he's certainly not going to do it. If you tell him he has to make a decision in the next six months, I, I don't think most Canadians, I'm not even sure I could name one of the seven federal NDP, uh, MPs right now. So I think when you look at who's going to run to, you know, who's going to run to lead this party, it's going to be somebody from the fringe that can sell membership and win a leadership. And I think that's the biggest harm for the NDP moving forward. Chris Warren, thanks so much for joining me. I hope you have

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