The Ben Mulroney Show - This week in politics -- Canada and Palestine. To state or not to state....

Episode Date: September 22, 2025

Max Fawcett, Lead Columnist for Canada's National Observer Dimitri  Soudas, Former Director of Communications for Prime Minister Stephen Harper If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://link.chtbl.com/bms⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Also, on youtube -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@BenMulroneyShow⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Insta: ⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠ Twitter: ⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠ TikTok: ⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠ Enjoy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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The whole way? The whole way. Welcome back to the Ben Mulroney show. We're closing out this Monday edition of the show with style and firepower with our this week in politics. Monday edition, Max Fawcett lead columnist for Canada's National Observer and Demetri Soutis, former director of communications for Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Guys, welcome to the show. Happy Monday. Happy Monday. Happy fall. Happy fall. That's right, then. Do you remember the 21st? September. All right. Canada, recognizing the state of Palestine. Dmitri, what does this mean big picture? Well, big picture, it doesn't really mean anything. I don't want to burst anybody's bubble. But Canada's recognition, along with the UK and France, will not provide formal state recognition. As you know, the Security Council needs to approve statehood. And the only ones holding out right now are the Americans, which will put their veto on. At the end of the day, I guess the longer conversation on this is Canada has abdicated its longstanding position in the Middle East.

What's that position? A two-state solution living peacefully side by side and putting conditions after the recognition of statehood. Some are saying, and I would be a part of that group. that says that effective immediately the government of Canada has rewarded Hamas for the atrocities of October the 7th. Max, I see it as Dimitri does, that those preconditions that were laid out by the prime minister on August 1st have not been met. And therefore, I can't see it any other way. You even have a spokesperson for Hamas saying these are the fruits of October 7th. I mean, you've got the guy himself saying we've been rewarded.

How do you see it? Yeah, I don't think we should be taking Hamas propaganda. at face value. Just because they say it doesn't mean it's true. I would argue the opposite, that this is important way of keeping us on the track of a two-state solution, which I hope there is an agreement that that is the way forward in the Middle East. It is the only way that the Israelis and the Palestinians can ever live in peace. And the Palestinians and the Israelis can ever be free of Hamas. Canada holds the G7 presidency this year. I think it's important for us to lay down a marker that says, we do not support the idea of annexing the

the entire Gaza Strip. We do not support the continued illegal settlements that are being built. And I think that is an important articulation of our Canadian values. And they stand in clear contrast with the ones being articulated by the Americans right now. They are welcome to veto anything that comes before them. But they have to take ownership of that. But couldn't those, Max, couldn't all of those positions that you just laid out, couldn't they happen by making a firm, clear declaration of those facts with,

without taking this step that, whether you say we can take them at their word or not, these are words being spoken by a spokesperson for Hamas. I mean, they are saying it out there. Hey, this is, we did this. October 7th led to this. And there are people listening to that. I'm struggling to understand how on August 1st, we laid out preconditions. And then today, those preconditions having not been met, we still did the thing we said we weren't

going to do until those preconditions were met? Well, again, I would strongly caution people against taking Hamas's word at face value. In no other situation would we do this? Oh, we do every day. We do what we do. Max, with all respect, with all respect, we take their, we take their word at face value every time the Hamas health ministry tells us how many people died on any given day. We take it as gospel. I don't. You're welcome to. I don't. We can move on there. Yeah. Okay. Wow. Okay. You know, The statement of values, the statement of conditions was an important part of this. But this is not just Canada doing it. It is France.

It is the United Kingdom. We have the support of the Norwegians, other countries. We are laying down a marker here that says the two-state solution and the path to staying on that is crucial. And we can't lose sight of that as Israel continues to press forward here. You can disagree with that. You know, we can have a civilized sort of principle disagreement here. But I think the overarching principles that we all want to see pursued, are the right for the Palestinian people to have their voice heard, to have self-determination.

And that is not the path we're on right now. Dimitri, the news sort of broke at the beginning of my show that Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, as soon as Keir Starrmer recognized Palestinian state demanded three billion pounds in reparations for the UK's role in the mandate from 1917 to 1948, two trillion, I'm sorry, two trillion pounds from 1917 to 1948 it seems that I had to chuckle a little bit um I guess here we go here we go with additional um I guess requests you want to call them that so here's the challenge of rewarding Hamas with Palestinian statehood the conditions should be clear Hamas should surrender renounce violence. All hostages should be immediately released and unconditionally.

And as far as the Palestinian Authority goes, that is currently governed by Fatah in the West Bank, they should commit and they should have democratic elections no later than 2026. There have not been elections in the West Bank, sorry, not in the West Bank, yes, in the West Bank for almost 20 years now. Why have there not been elections? Because the last legislative, elections were won by Hamas. And again, we say the word Hamas, but let's define very clearly. There is no difference between ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and Hamas. They are all terrorist organizations. So a presidential election as to who will govern those two pieces of land, Gaza and the West Bank, should occur without throwing people over balconies, for example. Are they able to have

democratic elections, are they able to have two sovereign democratic states, one being called Israel, the other being called Palestine. And you know what? I will quote from the constitution of Hamas. I will quote the following. Israel will exist and will continue to exist. And now comes the interesting part until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it. So what exactly are we recognizing. Yeah. Yeah, well, listen, I don't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater. I don't want to say that everything that has stemmed from this is a bad thing because I'm

looking at an interview that incoming UN ambassador David Lamedi gave to CBC Radio, where he, as in his new position, sort of took a very measured approach at this onslaught of, it might be evidence, it might be propaganda, citing Israel is committing a genocide. in Gaza, where he said that all evidence that comes in needs to be assessed before we make a determination as a nation. And Max, I have to say, I was happy to hear from this voice that will be at the UN, sort of a measured response to this, what I think is a propaganda war trying to tell us that there's a genocide going on that isn't.

I like that Lamedi is not pressing pause, but saying, hey, we've got to look at this ourselves. We're not going to take their word out for it. We're going to look at the evidence and decide for ourselves. Absolutely. Let's look at the evidence. Let's gather the facts. I don't think that it's helpful to get hung up on sort of the definition of what is or isn't a genocide. I think things get very tricky around that.

I think where we can all agree is that the suffering that is being endured by the Palestinian people right now, children being killed, journalists being killed is intolerable. just as the attacks on Israel were intolerable. And we need to sort of ground ourselves in the fact that there's too much suffering, there's too much death, there's too much violence, and move towards a way out of that. And I'm not sure that getting bogged down in an argument over, is it genocide, isn't it genocide, helps us get to the other side of this. That is what should be crucial for all states leaders, all politicians here,

is end this, move forward and get to a place where everyone can live together, in peace and in freedom. But we have, and I'll give you the last word here, Dmitri, it's a conversation that dominates sort of the public sphere here in Canada. You can't, for me to come out and say, I support Israel, there are a thousand voices that will jump on me and pile on me and say, you're a genocide supporter. So you can't get away from it in Canada.

And you've got about 30 seconds, my friend. Okay, well, genocide is the intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group as such. And I would say the following, very simply put, why is the government of Gaza, Hamas, a terrorist organization, hiding behind kids and families? Why aren't they letting them, why aren't they just doing what a normal democratic state would do, which means protect its most vulnerable?

All right, we're going to leave it there. When we come back, we're going to talk about the math in the House of Commons and how this government is going to get things done moving forward. This is the Ben Mulroney show. This show is sponsored by BetterHelp. Let's be honest. We've all shared our problems in some pretty funny places, the group chat, your barber,

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Visit wagovi.comi.com for savings. Exclusions may apply. Welcome back to the Ben Mulroney show and welcome back to great friends of the show, Dimitri Soutis and Max Fawcett. Max, last week on this show, Dimitri dropped a bomb. that I've been thinking about nonstop, about how he thinks that there's a chance we might be back at the polls by December.

It got me thinking about the 79 minority Tories. And, you know, the more I think about it, the more, I mean, I don't think anybody wants to go to the polls, but tell me what you think about what happened over the course of this week. You've got, you know, the Tories, I agree, will probably never vote for a budget that has $100 million worth of deficits in it.

But then you've got the Bloch Quebecois, who might find themselves emboldened today because of this notwithstanding clause Supreme Court letter that was sent by our justice minister. Because if that leads to circumscribing of the power of Quebec to do anything, that could make the liberal brand a little more toxic in Quebec. And they might think that they could come out of the next election in a better position they find themselves today. So that takes two parties off the board, and you're left with the NDP. And given this vote on, given this vote on Palestine, they may find themselves reverting to the same paradigm that had them propping up the liberals for so long, saying we have to do everything we can to keep the Tories from ever becoming the governing party. And therefore, we're going to support the liberals for the foreseeable future. What do you think of that theory? I just can't see the NDP, like I said last week, I can't see the NDP putting their chips on the table here when they have had way better opportunities to increase their influence, their leverage, whatever it might be, and they didn't jump at the opportunity.

I think the punishment from voters, especially progressive voters, to an NDP government or to an NDP rump caucus bringing down the liberal government in this time at this moment would be incredibly severe. I think it is entirely possible. They could get wiped out completely. And they're, of course, in the midst of their own, you know, sort of long running or ongoing leadership race. They're not going to resolve that until next spring. So I just can't see it. They're going to find a fake leaf to hide behind.

They're going to find some way. It's the Palestine thing. This is something that they can all support. And so they're going to say, look, this is, it makes it clear to us that if we were to trigger an election, the chance, we don't want to run the risk of bringing in a party that would undo this very big thing that means. so much to us. Yeah, absolutely.

That could be all they need. I think they would have found anything, to be honest with you. I agree. In the olden days, they could have gotten sick or they could have been in the bathroom when the key votes were being held. Of course, now you have remote voting, so that's no longer an option. They actually have to take a position. But I don't see them pulling the pin here.

Dimitri, how do you see things today? Because a lot's changed since last week. Well, I strongly recommend not trying to vote when you're in the washroom because you might turn FaceTime on. by by mistake now I've been working on this all week and there are six different scenarios here wow first of all let me get out my pen okay so 338 seats in total 168 liberal 144 conservative 22 block seven NDP one green and the speaker don't forget the speaker who votes only in case of a tie traditionally to continue debate

and to maintain the status quo. Now, in all of this, there will be liberal MPs leaving. We already know Christia Freeland is departing. We have the other names that we've talked about. I'm adding Stephen Gilbo to that list today. So there may be liberals departing over the next several weeks, several months. Then you have Block Quebec Y MPs that some of them will also leave to do what? To run provincially in order to run for the PQ.

So scenario one, the liberals alone, even if all MPs are present, they can't pass legislation. therefore MPs being absent scenario two liberals tag team with the NDP 168 plus 7 is 175 they have a clear majority they pass scenario three liberals plus block 168 plus 22 equals 190 comfortable majority scenario four liberals plus green that's 168 plus one that's still short of 170 so they would need one absentee scenario five conservatives plus block plus others it means that they have full support and they can defeat the government. So if the conservatives, the block and the other tag team, scenario number six, 169 to 169, the speaker votes to maintain the status quo. So the impact of absenteeism because Prime Minister Carney is so close to a functioning majority, MPs being absent, MPs resigning. So if block MPs resigned to go and run for the PQ, that means that if the blockers,

were to support legislation in that scenario, they would have less than what they currently have. Summary, do not discount one very simple element. If a government wants to be defeated and blame the opposition for that defeat, what do they do? They put a poison pill in legislation.

All right. So you're saying, be wary. Don't take anything at face value. I appreciate it. I'm glad you're going to be with us over the course of the next few weeks to help keep the eyes on the prize. Max, your assessment of the six scenarios. I mean, the, you know, the political science student in me just loves it. This is the stuff, the stuff of dreams for people who obsess about political science. For regular people, it's the stuff of nightmares. You know, there was this old Paul Wells, you know, rules of politics. And one of the rules was, you know, everything tends towards the most boring outcome. I don't

think that's the case anymore. And so maybe we'll see a non-boring outcome here. But the liberals, you know, if things get to the point where they feel like they can't get the support they need for legislation or for the budget, they might go simply because they might want another crack at Pierre Pauly of right now before he gets a chance to, you know, get through the leadership review or right after. There's all sorts of dynamics here. Every party, with the exception of the NDP, has a credible reason to want an election. Yeah. No, you're right you're right can i make a quick point please do max raises a very interesting point the liberals wanting pierre pauliev what i have noticed after one week of the parliaments of parliament sitting

is the liberals are barely attacking pierre pauliev if you recall pierre pauliev was literally hammering just and shrewd or every single day he hammered him to that point to a point where he was no longer an asset so if the liberals truly consider pierre pauliev an asset and if this pattern continues that they don't hammer him and don't try and take him down, basically. It means that they want him to be their opponent. Yeah, well, let's look at something that our finance minister, François-Philippe Champagne, said on the CBC, where he said Canada should be prepared for a generational investment as the federal government tease up its next budget.

And so to me, it feels like they are trying to define what these big deficits are going to mean. I think they want Canadians to view them as investment. and I think the Tories are probably going to look at it and say you're digging us into more of a hole. Max, in just the short period we have time, like, give me 45 seconds here. Do you think that's going to be the defining thing? What are you going to get Canadians to identify the deficit as? Is it an investment or is it a cost? I don't think Canadians care as much about deficits as we wish they would as political pundits wish they would.

I think this goes back to, you know, Justin Trudeau's big move, how he outflank. the NDP in 2015. He bet that Canadians wouldn't care about deficits. I still don't think they do. And so the conservatives, I think, have to be careful that they're not too heavy in their criticism of a budget that I think a lot of Canadians will see as a necessary response to Trump, a necessary response to the economic threats that are being made against us. They'll want to see investments in things that will create economic growth. But the Carney team has been, I think, pretty clear that that is where their focus is as well. This is not Justin Trudeau, just spending money on, you know, social spending or climate policy.

These are going to be investments in infrastructure, investments in economic capacity. And I think Canadians are going to like to see that. Demetri, the last 30 seconds to you. So two points. The MBA in me says the following. These generational investments, if they are recurring, meaning that the government will have to keep injecting this money over and over again year after year, those are not investments.

Those are basically things that other than, taxpayers' dollars would not be sustainable. So what's going to be interesting in the budget is whether or not these are one-time investments. And after that, the economy will take its course. I will, I will wrap up on this because Max is right. Very, very quick. When you talk about debt and deficit, Canadians don't necessarily care, I will make this point. Since 2015, we have only been paying interest on our debt and we have more than doubled it. There we go. We're going to leave it there. Gentlemen, thanks. Have a great week ahead. And thank you for joining the show. Enjoy the rest of your Monday. Find us on social. Find us.

on YouTube, find us as a podcast, and we will see you back here tomorrow on Tuesday. The end. For four years, Noah and Sarah have been clying out from beneath the Denver airport. They have faced monsters, secret armies, and killing machines. But they're done running. This season on escaping Denver, the truth is revealed. Captives become legends and a war a thousand years in the making erupts around them. Join us for the end of our story. The final season of escaping Denver drops August 11th on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, and wherever you find your favorite podcasts.