The Ben Mulroney Show - This Week in Politics Panel - Election Special

Episode Date: April 29, 2025

Guest: Chris Chapin, Political Commentator, Managing Principal of Upstream Strategy Guest: Max Fawcett, Lead Columnist for Canada's National Observer Guest: Warren Kinsella, Former Special Advisor to Jean Chretien and CEO of the Daisy Group If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! https://globalnews.ca/national/program/the-ben-mulroney-show Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Enjoy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome back to the Ben Mulroney show. And if you believe as I do that we just went through the most consequential election of our lifetime, you've heard that many, many times. Hopefully we'll stop saying it soon. But if you believe that, then you know that we need to delve into what happened last night and the implications moving forward, not just for the country, but for the parties involved in the election. We got to do it more than once. And so please welcome our second

special election panel this week in politics of the show. Please say hi to Chris Chapin, political commentator and managing principal of upstream strategy Max Fawcett, lead columnist for Canada's National Observer and Warren Kinsella, former special advisor to Jean-Claude Crezien and CEO of the Daisy Group. To all three of you, I say Happy Tuesday. Good morning. Warren, let's start with you. Broad strokes here. Big blue sky this for me. How'd they win?

How'd the Liberals win? What's the story of this election? Donald Trump. Donald Trump. Donald Trump. this for me how they win how the liberals win what's the story this election donald trump donald trump donald trump you know i thought that paulie have actually ran a very disciplined campaign uh i thought the liberals ran an okay campaign but on balance uh none of it mattered you know what justin trudeau leaving donald trump, those were the seismic events in this campaign and that's what really determined the outcome. And you know, we may still have a liberal majority. There's just a whole pile of seats that are too close to call, as they say. And you know, it's just extraordinary when you consider at the start of the year, the

Conservative Party of Canada under Pierre Piap was 30 points ahead. And he's lost his seat and he decisively lost his seat. He got clobbered by a new newcomer to politics and his party lost the election. So, I mean, at a minimum, I believe that Pauliap has to take responsibility and resign as leader. He's indicating he won't. I think that poly up has take responsibility and resign. As leader, he's indicating he won't. I think that's a mistake. And, you know, I think let the games begin, it's going to be very difficult for conservatives for the next

while. Chris Chapin, if the numbers stay where they are, the liberals have a healthy minority. But Warren is right, there are still a number of undecided seats that that could turn in favor of the liberals giving them a majority. So that would be a strong enough mandate to deal with Donald Trump. Do you think? How do I say this? What's his? We still don't know what kind of

Prime Minister Mark Carney's going to be because I in my opinion, he hasn't yet been properly vetted. We don't know him that well, we're going to learn on the job. What what do you think his first hundred days are going to look like? I suspect he'll wrap himself around a lot of the strong leaders we have at the provincial level because I think it'll insulate him. I agree. I think we gave the keys to this country to somebody who really is quite the unknown, you know, unknown politician. We know a lot about his resume. We have obviously seen him as the Governor of Bank of Canada, the Governor of Bank of England. His name has fluttered around for what feels like two decades, but he really is an unknown. You know, outside of the two debates, I think the Liberals did a very, very good job of shielding him from the media. I don't think he ever really got tested, really ever got questioned. I don't think we ever really got to know who Mark Kearney is.

And so I suspect that that's what they'll do. I think the premiers have laid the groundwork for him. You know, the trips down to Washington, I suspect he'll keep up this big Team Canada approach. I mean, he set this deadline for for Canada Day for the inter provincial trade barriers. So I think we'll see a lot of discussion about that over the next, next 100 days. Max Fawcett, give me your quick assessment of what the story of

this election was. And then I want to follow up with a caller that we had right before the break from Alberta, saying he's fed up. It's time for Alberta to start discussions about leaving Canada and possibly joining the United States. You're from out there. I'd love your take on the sentiment on the ground in Alberta after this election. Yeah, I mean, you know, I think the story of the election definitely was Donald Trump, but it was pure poly of as well. You know, this this is a campaign that I think if Aaron O'Toole had been

the leader, the outcome would have been very different. I think if there had been a different kind of conservative leader, you know, maybe someone like Jean Charest, someone like Brian Mulrooney. I think this would have been a conservative victory. I don't think it would have been particularly close. But, you know, Poliev has always been auditioning for the job of opposition leader. And Canadians tend to do a pretty good job of giving leaders the job they're auditioning for. And that's the job that he was given. So, you know, I think, I think we'll see how that plays out in the weeks, the weeks to come, you know, as Warren says, let the games begin. As to Alberta,

look, it's clear that Danielle Smith wants to go down this road. She already put out a statement saying, you know, that the Liberal government is attacking Alberta, you know, yada, yada, yada, she's going to replay those greatest hits because it shields her from having to talk about her own government's failures. But I just don't sense that there's an appetite in Alberta outside of the, you know, sort of rural, you know, the rural communities that tend to always be interested in Alberta independence. You know, we saw 30% of the vote go Liberal. We saw, you know, two seats, one by the Liberals, not as much as they were hoping for.

But there just isn't this groundswell of support for Alberta independence, especially right now. And, and hopefully, Mark Carney addresses that early on, you know, I've written a call and saying that he should get rid of the emissions cap. I think that would go a long way towards nipping this in the bud. And then we can get on to more important matters, because Albert independence is not important. Now, let's assume for a moment that the numbers that we saw

last night hold and the liberals maintain a minority. How do they get anything? How do they get anything through the House of Commons? Do they try to form some sort of official relationship with the NDP? Do they invite some of those caucus members into their party, effectively tacking back to the left after pivoting to the center under Mark Carney. Chris, what do you think?

I mean, I think to Warren's point, it's still so close to call, too close to call. But I, you're talking about I think the NDP currently has seven seats, that math would get them north of 172. I mean, you're talking about a decimated leaderless party that has no leader in caucus, they don't have official party status. So I don't think it will be overly difficult for them to, you know, put some olive branches out, maybe invite some of them across the floor and join the liberal caucus. I just you know, how thin that margin is between the minority and the majority. I just don't think it'll be that much of a challenge for them to, to coerce some of

that some of those NDP MPs to vote alongside them. Warren, is it naive of me to hope for a scenario where the Liberals, in an attempt to govern on behalf of all Canadians, try to find common cause on a few key issues as they relate to the Trump tariff threat, on a few key issues that matter relate to the Trump tariff threat on a few key issues that matter to Tories to find something that they could all vote in favor of because that would represent over 80% of the will of the people. Well you're never naive and I don't think that that's naive at all. I think

that's a good idea. I was one of the people opining that you know we're going through an existential crisis. We've got the most powerful person on earth talking about taking us over, talking about using economic force against us, you know, mocking us, mocking our leadership, all of our leaders. So I felt for some time that having some kind of a unity government, or at least a coalition, or whatever you want to call it, is a prudent thing to do. Because we've got to respond as a country. You know, Daniel Smith, once again, like she never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Once again, she's breaking away from the popular consensus. She can't even bring

herself to say, now we need to face the threat that is posed by the United States and by the Trump administration. So, you know, I think that that's not naive at all. I think it's a very good idea. Max, what do you think? I mean, I think everybody wins in a scenario like that. Everybody has a chance to look like they're putting country over party. Things could get accomplished. And we don't go back into the same old routines of,

okay, the liberals gravitate to the NDP to get their agenda back, and then the Tories gripe about it. It could be a chance to reset and do something different, if only on one or two issues. Yeah, I love the idea. I you know, I think if the liberals are looking to poach MPs to cross the floor, I'd much rather see them looking to the conservative side than the NDP side for precisely that reason.

I think there's a bunch of issues as divided as the parties are on culture war stuff, on bread and butter issues, whether it's inter-provincial trade barriers, whether it's housing, whether it's dealing with Trump, there is a large amount of overlap between the conservatives and liberals on how to go forward. I think that Carney should absolutely go down that road.

He should bear the conservatives and liberals on how to go forward. I think that Carney should absolutely go down that road. He should bear the conservatives to not go along with them on building more housing, on knocking down these trade barriers, on building energy corridors. And he doesn't need the AP for those. He needs the conservatives to come along for the ride. And I think they can and should. All right. Well, more with our political panel when we continue, including where do the conservatives go from here after this loss in the 45th federal election. That's next on the Ben Mulroney show. The Ben Mulroney show marches on supercharged with our second, a special election panel with Chris Chapin,

Max Fawcett and Warren Kinsella. Prior to the break, we were discussing where the liberals go once they form government, and now we've got to look at what the conservatives do once, since they failed to do what they were at one point poised to do so easily. They find themselves yet again in opposition. And I guess, Warren, I'll start with you. You've got a very clear idea as to what the conservatives need to do. But look, they had their strongest vote share since Brian Mulrooney. Pierre did lose his seat.

If you look at the numbers, however, when they were poised for that quote unquote super majority of over 200 seats, they were going to do that with 44% of the vote. They captured just shy of 42%. So it's not an it's not an epic failure. But that being said, all of that is spin, they lost the election. So what do they do? It is an epic failure. You know, they're not the government when they were a lock on government. And their leader lost his seat decisively. That's an epic failure.

Like, it's like hockey, you know, second coming close doesn't matter. What matters is winning. And they didn't. And, you know, is Poliev going to stick around? He's saying he's going to. They've got lots of alternatives out there in the wings, Jason Kenney and many others. You know, I understand their disappointment, but now, as you pointed out before the break, you've got Western conservatives saying to hell with it, and they're going to start talking about

forming their own party again. I went through this when I worked for Mr. Kretzsch. The Conservative Party, as you recall, after your dad left, split into three pieces, the Bloc, the Reform Party the reform party and the PCs. So, you know, I don't see that necessarily happening in three parts now, but definitely I could see the Western side saying, you know, to hell with Canada, to hell with the Conservative Party of Canada, we've got to do our own thing. And then, you know, that's a happy, happy day for Mark Carney or whoever happens to be liberal leaders.

So people can spin it any way they want. I think it's an epic failure. Chris Chapin, does the calculus for the party change if the liberals maintain this minority or if after all the votes are counted, they actually form a majority government? Because if they have a minority in the current with the current calculus I mean they they could they could plot along for a few years or they might fall after their first budget

But if they have a majority they're there for four years Which then gives the the conservative party time to rebuild but if if an election could be called at at the drop of a hat Don't they need a leader locked and loaded? Yeah, I mean, they do, Ben. And I don't think the calculus does change. I've thought a lot about this since last night. And I think the party just needs to do, I don't wanna say something as cliche as soul searching,

but I think we need to ask ourselves, was the 42% last night a really good turnout in a three-way race, or was it a poor turnout in what turned into being a two-way race? And electorally, it turned out to be not nearly enough in what was a two-horse election. But I think the question I keep going back to is, why did it become a two horse race? And what did we as a party do to cause it to become us versus the liberals? And what did we maybe do that made the NDP voters, and I wouldn't even say just the NDP voters,

I'd say the entire Canadian electorate, I shifted. There's been a lot of talk that the NDP voters all backed Mark Carney, but the Tories won 13 seats from the NDP. Like, there was something that was appealing to NDP held ridings before about Pierre Pauliev, but there was something clearly very unappealing to many people across the country about the form of politics we put forward. And I don't believe that that was solely to do with Donald Trump. I think there was something about our party that that we need to figure out what we got wrong because

Pierre Poliad has won that seat in in Carlton, you know, election after election after election handily and and it wasn't a small defeat last night in his own riding and so I think that's where we really need to look at is what what changed so drastically in the last four months and and what do we need to do to fix that? And I think that's bigger than just the leader. Yeah, and Max, if things can change that quickly to the detriment of the conservatives, couldn't they change back just as fast?

I mean, the danger is that, you know, there's a lot to like if you're a conservative about Pierre Poliev and what he brought to the party and who he brought into the party. And there's a danger that like if you're conservative about Pierre Poliev and what he brought to the party and how he who he brought into the party. And there's a danger that if you get rid of them after this result, you're throwing the baby out with the bathwater. There is there's also the risk that you've doubled down on the

same formula that didn't work. And that's that's the choice that conservatives I guess have to have to make right now. You know, to me, the most interesting under the surface outcome or below the top line outcome last night was Ontario because the seat projections in the rest of the country were mostly spot on. But in Ontario, they missed and the conservatives significantly outperformed. And I don't think Pierre Pauli had gets credit for that. I think credit for that goes to Doug Ford.

I think that that speaks to the fact that the most successful brand and version of conservative politics in this country is Doug Ford. And- Well, hold on. But Max, let me just push back because Pierre Poliev and his brand of conservatism

got a million more votes than Doug Ford got in his election just a few short months ago. Sure, but that's the difference between a high turnout election and a low turnout election. And, you know, Doug Ford's low turnout election was in part a referendum on, you know, his government and how much of a risk it presented. And you didn't see the NDP and liberals hurting together in fear of Doug Ford because Doug Ford isn't scary. And you know, he he patched together that sort of NDP conservative switching that that

was what drove a lot of the, you know, the conservative wins last night in places like Windsor, where they don't usually tend to win seats at the federal level. So I just think that's the choice in front of them. And you know, Jamil Javani in his attack on Doug Ford, I guess, brought it out into the open, but they have to decide do they want to go down the Doug Ford path, or the Pierre Paulia path? We don't have a lot of time left. But I do want to spend some

time on the NDP and where they go from here. I was musing before that. Jagmeet Singh has taken his long walk in the snow. But the question is, should the party be taken out behind the woodshed? I mean, are we now at the point where they they've lost their way to the point that even if they got a new leader, they might not be able to rebuild this thing. So let's go around the horn. Chris will start with you. And in just a few short sentences, tell me, do they pick a new leader? And if they do, what are their chances of rebuilding? I mean, they've been here before. They've been down in the dumps like this and they've bounced back. It's going to take a long time. I don't think you're going to have anybody clamoring to lead that party anytime soon. So it's going to be a challenge. And so, you know, maybe at some point they could beg Wab Kanu to take over the helm of the party. But at seven seats, I don't think that's happening anytime. Yeah. I mean, Warren, the value proposition to bring a guy like Wab Kanu in from,

from the heights of where he is to the struggles of what he would be required to do. I mean, that's a heavy lift. Yeah. And it's like Doug, all these people saying Doug Ford wanted to be like, Doug Ford being leader of the opposition, Wab Kanu leading a party that doesn't have party status. like it's ridiculous. It's completely ridiculous. But the NDP needs to analyze what they did, you know, like saying attacking Poliev during both debates, like Poliev was the enemy.

The enemy was Mark Carney and, you know, becoming more preoccupied with Gaza than Guelph, you know, and forgetting who they're representing. Like they've made a whole series of mistakes and they are capable, there are sensible social democrats, social democrats in this country. You know there's a majority social democratic party in British Columbia who's the government. So it is possible, but they've got a long hard slog ahead of them. And they need to have a leader who's got some vision and is prepared to eat a lot of rubber chicken because that's what's coming. Max Fossett, the last 30 seconds are to you. Yeah, I mean, they're not going to get WAP Canoe, but they need someone like WAP Canoe. They need

a leader who understands the importance of economic development, of economic growth, and who has an economic message. And that's never been something that Judney Singh has even been remotely interested in. And so, you know, if they're going to rebuild themselves and find their way back into the conversation, they need to draw on the leaders in the West, you know, the David E.B.'s, the Rachel Notley's, the Wabka News, the Roy Romanos, who have a message for people that goes beyond their identity. And that's gonna be tough for them. Chris Chape and Max Foss at Warren Kinsella

always appreciate your expertise, your insight, and I hope to do it again soon. Thanks, Ben. Thanks, guys. There's no limit to how far criminals will go to cover their tracks, but investigators will go even further to uncover the truth. I'm Nancy Hicks, a senior crime reporter for Global News. This season on Crime Beat, I'll take you from the crime scene to the courtroom and

inside some of Canada's most high-profile cases and some you've likely never heard of before. Search for and listen to Crime Beat on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and wherever you find your favorite podcasts.