The Ben Mulroney Show - U.S. say they're close to trade deals with China and Canada

Episode Date: June 12, 2025

Guests and Topics: -U.S. close to trade deals with China and Canada -Canada, U.S. exchanging potential terms on economic and security deal with Guest: Steven Chase, Globe and Mail Senior parliamentary reporter - If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! https://globalnews.ca/national/program/the-ben-mulroney-show Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Enjoy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Whether it's a family member, friend or furry companion joining your summer road trip, enjoy the peace of mind that comes with Volvo's legendary safety. During Volvo Discover Days, enjoy limited time savings as you make plans to cruise through Muskoka or down Toronto's bustling streets. From now until June 30th, lease a 2025 Volvo XC60 from 1.74% and save up to $4,000. You can get a $25,000 Volvo XC60 from 1.74% and save up to $4,000. Conditions apply. Visit your GTA Volvo retailer or go to volvocars.ca for full details. At Desjardins Insurance, we put the care in taking care of business. Your business, to be exact.

Our agents take the time to understand your company so you get the right coverage at the right price. Whether you rent out your building, represent a condo corporation, or own a cleaning company, we make insurance easy to understand so you can focus on the big stuff, like your small business. Get insurance that's really big on care. Find an agent today at Desjardins.com slash business coverage. Welcome to the Ben Mulroney Show on this Thursday, June 12, 2025.

I cannot start this segment without acknowledging that today is a very important day for me. This is the birthday of my daughter, Isabel Veronica, commonly known as Ivy Mulrooney. And it's the day that I became the dad of the single greatest little girl on the planet. And I cannot wait for this workday to be done and So I can go home and celebrate her in the manner that she deserves. She is the sunshine of our lives and I'm just so proud to be her dad. Happy birthday, Ivy Donald Trump is saying that his long-awaited deal with China trade deal with China is done. So apparently in trade envoys from both China and the United States have been hard at work

in London trying to strike a deal that could pave the way to the resumption of rare earth exports to the US from China. China has a stranglehold on a lot of the rare earth minerals that the US needs to fuel its IT economy. And so it looks like this thing is done. Investors have two questions though. How sustainable is the deal? The Wall Street Journal says that China is gonna be, will grant a six month export license

for rare earth minerals, meaning it'll have, it'll still have the leverage to exact concessions from the US later on. So I don't know if this is built on solid ground. We're gonna have to wait and see. That being said, I mean, when you talk to members of the US administration, I mean, they lead with a lot of bluster and a lot of enthusiasm.

And when pressed for details, there's sometimes light on those details, but they at least, when it comes to Howard Lutnick, the trade secretary, everybody in Canada loves Howard Lutnick. We all love him because he's been so respectful to us over the past few months. Here's what Howard Lutnick said that this is just the beginning.

When you've got Scott Jameson and I spending, you know, 25 hours locked in a room with the Chinese, we're not really doing the other deals. Yes, our teams are moving them forward. But you know, now we're going to be focused starting today. We're going to be focused on other deals. We're going to get them done. We're in good shape with lots of countries, But good shape isn't good enough for the United States of America. We want great deals that are fundamental for

America, we can get them, we can get them done. We need to open these other countries markets, our farmers, our ranchers, our fishermen, they are going to have just a great time. They're gonna have a great time. And look, like, a deal in principle is not a deal. And an agreement to have a deal is not a deal. And we've been told that there are dozens of deals that are done. I would challenge that like show me show me the signing ceremony, because I haven't seen any of those yet. I have no doubt that a number of negotiations are happening simultaneously. But a negotiation is not a deal until you have a deal of negotiations are happening simultaneously, but a negotiation

is not a deal until you have a deal in place. You don't have a deal. And I think they, these guys are counting their chickens before they hatch. But listen, this has been their goal all along, reestablish the, the, the world trading order, more in line with what Donald Trump wants it to look like if he gets there and it leads to stability in the markets and predictability in the supply chain, that's a net benefit compared to where we are today and the chaos that we're living in. So I'm choosing to be, I'm choosing to look at the glass half full. Manitoba premier, a premier, Wab Kanu. I've been saying this for months. The more he talks, the more I like him.

This man sounds like a national leader. He leads with optimism and he sounds like somebody who is governing on behalf of his entire province and he's looking out for the national interest. He's the type of guy who if he sees a choke point, if he sees somebody who isn't on board, he seems like somebody who's gonna roll up his sleeves and try to get everybody to a yes. And we need more of those people in this country, regardless of their political stripes. And there was a poll that came out that said,

I'm not the only one who likes this guy. He has a 68% approval rating, the highest among all the premiers. And I'm glad, I'm glad that a young, energetic premier from a place like Manitoba that doesn't often get the national spotlight is being regarded with such high esteem. And I wanna give you an example

of why I like this guy so much. Listen to him talking about the Hudson Bay Energy Export Terminal and how it could be a unity project for the entire country. A corridor would bring a road, all season road, a transmission line, probably a road, all-season road, a transmission line, probably a pipe, broadband, together within a right-of-way to travel through northern Manitoba to get to Tidewater and to send our electricity to the west.

So when we're talking about decarbonization, that's probably the big opportunity for Canada is for us to send low-carbon electricity to Saskatchewan and Alberta. And when we're talking about powering our Canadian economy, the opportunity is probably about sending resources from Alberta and Saskatchewan through Hudson Bay to the European Union and other international markets. Yeah, and I love that. I love that bold optimism. And don't forget, like we have been forced into this position because Donald Trump has made us reevaluate how we deal with the ourselves and each other and within our own borders. And this is a man who seems to be taking the baton and leading from the front.

Not for nothing. He's an NDP Premier. So I want you to hear how his how bullish he is on this project only being able to work in partnership with the private sector. Listen to the language he uses as he describes the value of the public private sector within this project. The approach that we're going to take is to be agnostic and to turn to the private sector and say, okay, here's the broad strokes of a corridor. And now you using the ingenuity and the innovation that the private sector brings, you help us sort through these different challenges and answer these questions.

So if there's going to be a port on Hudson Bay, you tell us what is the best location that will allow for year round service. Is it the port of Churchill with an icebreaker? Is it the port of Nelson? Is it some other solution there? If we're looking at the routes through Northern Manitoba, we have a broad consensus. I'm sure that it's going to be in the northern part of our province at a slight diagonal going towards the east. But what is the actual route? Let's Let's have the private sector pitch their solution. So everyone around the country should be, should admire this guy as, as, as it relates to him being a national figure, a national leader on these big national unity, national infrastructure projects. I'm very bullish on this man.

And look, there are a lot of people looking for a savior for the federal NDP. There is no way that a man like Wab Kanu, who is currently leading a province, he controls the levers of power. He is in a position of authority in respect. He is in constant contact with his other provincial analogues as well as Mark Carney's government. He currently has an opportunity to grow the Manitoba economy as the leader of that province. There is no way a guy like that would ever leave that opportunity that he has right now, to go rebuild the rump, the husk of the former NDP federally. That right now is in debt, has seven members in the House of Commons,

is being dominated by a one issue group of pro-Palestinians and is not concerned with the work. I mean, they have an identity crisis, the likes of which I haven't seen in a very long time. So there's no way a guy like that would give up what he's got to take on the selfless work and the thankless work of rebuilding a party that even if it rises to the level of Jack Leighton, at best may one day compete to form opposition, never to form government in Canada. But I'm sure that there are federal NDP members that are salivating at the prospect of it.

It'll never happen. And that is that that's a shame for them, but certainly not for the people of Manitoba. And given how central we're going to need these leaders to be on these national projects of national importance in terms of infrastructure, we need him as the premier of that province. I salute you, Wab Kanu, and I hope to God somebody tells you what I'm saying on this show because I want to have you on the Ben Mulroney show. I want to pick your brain and I want to get to know you. Welcome back to the Ben Mulroney show.

In our previous segment, we were talking about all the trade deals that Donald Trump and his administration say are on the table. They are almost finished. Some he says are done. I dispute that. I've heard from many people on this show who challenged that and say there's nothing there. There are no deals until there are deals. And we haven't seen that any deals have been finalized.

That being said, we do know that Canada and the United States have it as one of their top priorities to finalize a new deal between our two countries that will satisfy the man who signed the previous deal and then turned around and said it was the worst deal in American trade history. We're joined now by Stephen Chase of the Globe and Mail, who's got some insights as to where exactly we are

in that process. Stephen, welcome to the show. Glad to be here. So you're reporting that right now, as it stands, we're exchanging potential terms on a new economic insecurity deal. What does that mean? What we're doing is, someone described it to me as like term sheets in the private sector

where companies before they actually hammer out negotiations, they're trying to figure out what they can agree on, what they can all agree on, what they can bring to the table. So there are terms of a possible agreement being swapped back and forth between a very tightly held, a closely, or a tight-knit group of people. The Dominic Cablanque, the minister responsible for Canada US trade, our ambassador to the United States, as well as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and the US Trade Representative Jamison Greer, a very small group. We've got to remember there's two things going on here. One is we have to get rid of the tariffs.

Yeah. And two, we have to renegotiate the United States, Mexico, Canada agreement, which is the successor to the NAFTA. This is really- Does one beget the other? Do we have to renegotiate NAFTA in order to get the tariffs removed? No, these are two different things. This is, I think we're working on a very narrowly defined, a small and narrowly defined deal that would, where we are seeking to get the tariffs removed or reduced. And the Americans want us to make commitments on border security, defense spending, they want us to join Golden Dome. And this would sort of solve the tariffs or at least stabilize the tariff issue. Next year would come the renegotiation of the trade deal.

So this is like a phase one deal, kind of what you might call an executive handshake, which of course makes me leery about whether it can be enforced. And then the NAFTA renegotiation is next year. Well, a lot of us, Stephen, were caught off guard and pleasantly surprised by the bold pronouncement by Mark Carney that we were going to reach our 2% commitment to military spending as it relates to our GDP this year. I mean, we were told it was going to take five, seven, 10 years, and all of a sudden we're doing it in one year. I mean, we were told it was gonna take five, seven, 10 years and all of a sudden we're doing it in one year.

I have to wonder now, given your reporting, whether that announcement is almost sending a signal to the Americans that we're ready to play, that we're ready to be taken seriously. Yeah, you're absolutely right. It's also giving him good standing, Mr. Carney good standing as he heads to a NATO meeting where we were embarrassingly one of the three laggards. But yes, you're absolutely right.

This is very much likely built into dealing with this short-term deal with the White House that we're trying to strike. And of course, there are still the possibility that something could happen at the G7 summit when Mr. Trump and Mr. Carney meet. Yeah. Well, I've got to wonder though, Stephen, one of the issues that Donald Trump was telegraphing prior to our federal election was his disdain

for supply management of our dairy sector. And we know, because he's been very clear on this, that as he tears down inter-provincial trade barriers across Canada, the one thing he ain't touching is going to be our dairy sector. So how are we gonna square that? It feels to me like that is gonna be one of the, as we put our term sheets together and we say,

here's what we think we can agree on, the Americans are gonna come back and this will and we say, here's what we think we can agree on. The Americans are going to come back and this will be a sticking point. Don't you think? I think that it's definitely going to be a sticking point, but that might be part of the USMCA negotiations as opposed to this. This is about Mr. Trump wants to get results.

He wants to show Americans that he's getting and he's negotiating with their countries and getting results for his tariffs. So this is for us about getting rid of the tariffs and for them about extracting concessions on security and defense, you know, fentanyl, fighting fentanyl Arctic infrastructure, and they want us to join Golden Dome. Although God, I don't know how we're going to afford that. Yeah.

This will probably encompass. I suspect, but I could totally be wrong that, uh, supply management is up for the USMCA. Okay. But Stephen, the wild card in all of this is the legal challenges to Donald Trump's underlying tariff power that he sort of usurped from Congress. And in the middle of these negotiations, if the courts come back and just drop a judgment on him and say, yeah, you actually don't have that. I mean, I think he's fighting over a dozen lawsuits over this very power that he claims he has. Could all of this be for naught? Or are we the type of country that will negotiate

in good faith, regardless of whether he has that power or not? Well, that's a really interesting tension because I think it benefits Canada to not negotiate quickly because the chickens are coming home to roost for Mr. Trump but on the other hand courts don't move quickly I suspect that the White House will drag out that fight for quite a while but I do think and many people have recommended this that we wait until Donald Trump is more is more

debilitated I mean you know because has gone later on in his term has faced far more backlash and, and, and problems and trouble for his tariffs. And then he will, he will, he'll have less. He'll have less cards to play. Right. Yeah. So but on the other hand, the White House wants a deal quickly, and we want to get the tariffs off quickly. So there's incentives to move quickly, probably it would be quicker than the courts and we can't wait for the courts. Right. Stephen, the first time we had you on the show, you were breaking the news of what actually happened at Mar-a-Lago during that seminal and pivotal conversation between Donald Trump and former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, where the specter of the 51st state reared its head for the very first time. And because of that reporting, we saw a cascade of a chain of events that led to a roller coaster that we as a nation went on, the likes of which I can't remember. I mean, it was high drama, it was soap opera,

it was, and then, and it led to an outcome that very few of us predicted back then, which was the ascension of Mark Carney to become our prime minister, eventually win the election. When you look back at that initial reporting, did you appreciate how big of a deal it could have been? I think that, I definitely think that we knew we were in for a rough ride based on the feedback

Mr. Trudeau was getting at that meeting and this talk of the 51st state which came out of left field like he's not campaigned on this we've not heard about it before so it threw us for a loop. I would argue however that the the major actor in all this is still Krisha Freeland, who basically blew herself up to take out Mr. Trudeau and clear the way for Mr. Cardy. If it were not for Ms. Freeland, we would probably have a parapoly of her government right now. Well, we could go back and reevaluate this. Where was the turning point?

I mean, some would suggest that the turning point or the lack of turning point was Jagmeet Singh refusing to do the thing he probably should have done to keep himself alive, which fell the government earlier. But I want to actually ask you, because that was the genesis of the 51st state, but the new US ambassador to Ottawa was recently on television,

and he sort of laid the blame partly at the feet of Canadian media for keeping the story alive for stoking those fires. And the idea came out, you're the one who reported on it, but a lot of people picked up that baton and ran with it. What do you think of the assertion that the Canadian media has at least partial responsibility for keeping a story alive that maybe didn't need to.

I think that's ridiculous. Mr. Trump can keep his mouth shut if he wants to on a 51st state. He doesn't have to answer questions. Many politicians don't in fact answer questions when they respond. So I think it's all in Mr. Trump. But I think there's a far more interesting comments that were made this

week by Kelly Kraft, who was the ambassador to Canada from the United States during the first Trump term. And she said at a conference in Toronto, if you don't want to be treated like the 50% state, stop acting like one, pay your fair share of NATO, pay for your defense, take charge of the Arctic. You're not behaving like an independent country. So I thought those were very interesting and more thoughtful remarks. Sometimes we got to hear the hard truth and sometimes we'll only listen to the hard truth

from people outside the country. And frankly, we needed to hear those things. And it is not whether you agree with, whether you support Mark Carney or not, I'm pleased to see that certain steps are being taken that I wish had been taken years ago. So I'm gonna take it as a net positive, even though we're living through chaos right now. Steve and Chase, thank you so much for joining us.

We really appreciate it. I'm welcome, glad to be here. The best high-concept sci-fi rig of them all in the universe is back. What the hell? How long was I out? Close airlock seven! Rick!

Seth, please let me out. Rick put you in there for a reason, Speed. Mom, just... Get back here! This is for your own good! Rick and Morty. New season, Sundays on Adult Swim. Stream on StackTV.

Get your mouth rounded!