The Ben Mulroney Show - Will Canada's Automotive Sector Vanish in Three Years?

Episode Date: August 25, 2026

On today's episode of 'The Ben Mulroney Show', Ben welcomes Greg Layson, digital and mobile editor at Automotive News Canada. They discuss a shocking claim by someone in the car industry that Canada will cease to make cars by 2029. Manufacturing will vanish. If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://link.chtbl.com/bms⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Also, on youtube -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@BenMulroneyShow⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Insta: ⁠⁠⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠@benmulroneyshow⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠@benmulroneyshow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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With so much experience to draw on, it's like having your own coach. Whatever your favorite game, we have your playbook. OZoon. Well played. Discover free sports tips, casino games and poker guides at OZoon.net. I think it was yesterday. I woke up to a post on X by Greg Brady of Toronto today at 640 Toronto. And he wrote, believe me, I want this on the record. But my guy high up was one of the big automakers will only text this. I can't get him put his name behind it. He approved this text, mind you. Quote, by 2029 at the latest Canada won't make cars. Manufacturing will vanish. It will be an outlier.

We'll be lucky if we get to a million cars this year anyway. We made over three million cars in Canada just 15 years ago. It's over. And the U.S. president did want this, but the governments here have offered zero in terms of incentives to stay or expand or start fresh. That takes work and diligence. Pointing the finger at Trump works for them politically. It doesn't save or create jobs. It's over.

And we know it is. It's a heck of a, a heck of a statement. Let's test it against somebody who knows a third. or two about the automotive industry. Greg Lason is digital and mobile editor at Automotive News Canada. Greg, when I read that to you, what do you think? I think there is some truth to it in that it's very bad for Canada if tariffs are raised to 50%. There's no question. Has the government done nothing? That's not entirely true. I mean, Ford just retooled in Oakville, Stalantan retool, Stalantus retooled in Windsor, all of that got some government.

But the flip side of that coin is, did Honda cancel an EV project? Absolutely. So there's some truth to it. You know, does it all go away by 2029? I don't think so. Do vehicles get more expensive if tariffs are raised? Probably, but I can tell you just today, Honda said it might not build a plant in North America, even though it's out of capacity. So there is no additional capacity for Honda, and it's considering no new plant in North America

because there's just too much uncertainty. And within that story, they said they were eating the tariffs right now. So that cost hasn't even been passed on yet. So while there's some truth to that, I don't think it goes away by 2029. We're talking years to rejig supply chains and millions and billions of dollars to build new factories or even retool factories south of the border. So from truth, yes, completely true, no. Well, yeah, and we are dealing with a number of things and a number of factors and a number of dynamics. You know, there was a moment where we in Canada, at multiple levels of government, bet big on the EV revolution that will come.

I think it will come one day. It's just not here yet. And I remember having a conversation about, you know, all of the government subsidies that went into the EV batteries. And my friend on this very show said, look, if you believe that every now and then the government has to place a bet, and sometimes a big bet, then you also. have to be comfortable with the fact that sometimes those bets don't pay off. I agreed with him because I remember being quite bullish on the EV battery subsidies, the big announcements with Trudeau and Ford, and it didn't pay off. So that was one thing.

What hasn't been helpful, at least in my opinion, Greg, is the fact that we had the EV mandate that was absolutely in the power of this government for over a year. and the previous government, since they put it into effect, that has caused uncertainty. And we hobbled ourselves with that by not facilitating at least a certain amount of certainty that we could control. Yeah, look, there needs to be some harmonization on many levels, many different levels within the auto industry with the United States. And when we were placing those bets, we were harmonized with U.S. President Joe Biden and his policy, right? $7,500 U.S. rebates for EVs over there, $5,000 over here. IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act over there, similar clauses and contributions to automakers over here.

And look, if you were not going to get into that electric vehicle game at that time, you were going to be left behind. I'm with you. They bet. It was the wrong bet, but part of the reason it was the wrong bet is because the administration in the United States change. If you look globally, automakers are electrifying. countries are electrifying consumers are electrifying they just aren't doing that in north america right now there's still a small market no question but we're not making enough eves in canada for can't even there just isn't there and the same can be said for the united states so i don't disagree

with you in that did we make a bet yes was it wrong yes but why was it wrong it wasn't wrong in the short term ended up being wrong in the long term when things change well i i think i think a couple but they could have they could have tweaked it as they went they could have noticed okay a demand is slowing down. Let's let's spread, let's amortize this over 10 or 15 more years instead of having that that stop, that, that drop dead date for every, what, 20, 36 or whatever it was supposed to be, which was just crazy the closer we got to it. They also, I think, and again, I want your opinion on all this stuff, but Greg, they could, they could have invested more on building more, more of a network of charging stations across the country. I mean, range anxiety has always

been a thing. And if you want every one of these cars on every car to be on the road to be electric, then you got to give people the infrastructure. And we stop short on that front. If you want to level of criticism against the government, it is this. It didn't listen. It didn't listen to the consumer and it didn't listen to the automakers. It thought it could force consumers to buy electric vehicles and force automakers to manufacture electric vehicles, not knowing that the electric vehicle supply chain, you know, takes 15 years to create. We have a supply chain for internal combustion engine vehicles that have been in place for 100 years or more. We're not there with electric vehicles. It didn't listen to the automakers when they said, you can't force us

to sell a particular number of electric vehicles. But I will tell you what automakers always do is they create more fuel efficient vehicles in terms of the internal combustion engine. They're going to make more vehicles with better range, which, when it comes to electric vehicles, if you just let the auto industry work for the last five years and do their thing, which is get affordable vehicles to the public and get more fuel-efficient vehicles to the masses,

whether those are long-range electric vehicles or more fuel-efficient internal combustion engine vehicles, we'd all be in a better place. Lastly, we'll end on a positive note, Greg. If you could give advice to Ottawa right now and to Queens Park, on, you know, some steps, real concrete steps that they could take that would alleviate some of this uncertainty that could take some pressure off so that what I read off the top most assuredly

does not come to pass in 2029. What would that advice be? I think the advice to everyone is something I heard from a lobbyist in the United States, in the oil industry, actually, who once told me, don't take Donald Trump literally, take him seriously. When he says he wants to apply 50% tariffs to Canada on their vehicles, it means he has a problem with Canada's auto industry or a trade imbalance or whatever it is. It's not necessarily going to happen on January 1st, but you need to listen to him, not literally, but take him seriously. That is really what everyone has to do. I always see people jump to these conclusions that we're not going to make vehicles in 2029.

That might not necessarily be the case, but there is a problem. problem within North America when it comes to the auto industry. Sit down and hammer it out and listen to the automakers. And I would say that is the same piece of advice I would give Donald Trump because I know that there are automakers calling him today and yesterday saying 50% is unrealistic. We need Canada. We need Mexico. We cannot spend tens of billions of dollars rejigging the entire supply chain and auto assembly in North America. Greg Lason from Automotive News Canada, I really appreciate it, sir. Thanks so much. Anytime.