The Ben Mulroney Show - Will the NDP Vote Non Confidence if Justin Trudeau doesn't resign?

Episode Date: December 19, 2024

Will the NDP Vote Non Confidence if Justin Trudeau doesn't resign? Guest: Tom Parkin, Principal at Impact Strategies and Canadian columnist and commentator If you enjoyed the podcast, tell a friend! For more of the Ben Mulroney Show, subscribe to the podcast! https://globalnews.ca/national/program/the-ben-mulroney-show Follow Ben on Twitter/X at https://x.com/BenMulroney Enjoy

It's over for Trudeau, but how soon? Those are not my words. Those are the words of Tom Parkin, principal at Impact Strategies and Canadian columnist and commentator. Also, he's got a terrific sub stack, which I recommend. Tom, welcome to the show. Thanks for being here. Oh, my pleasure.

Thank you. Okay, so we got a lot to get to. It's over for Trudeau, but how soon? Talk to us about your perspective in this sub-stack that you wrote. Well, we've got to the point where all the opposition leaders are saying that Trudeau's got to go. So he doesn't have a majority. So the fact of the matter is that at some point, if he persists, if he tries to hang on, at some point the House of Commons

will come back. It's in recess now. It's scheduled to come back on the 27th. We should talk about that date a little bit more. Scheduled for the 27th. And at some point after that, the government is going to have to allow an opposition day, which could turn into a confidence motion. Or they will have to pass some sort of bill that is relating to money,

which is automatically a confidence vote. And so at some point along that process, not too long after then, there's going to be a time when all the opposition leaders will vote against Trudeau if he decides to try and hang on. So that is just the hard reality, I think, that John Trudeau is looking at right now that his days are numbered and so the question now for him we've already seen this reported a little bit is is the question about uh next uh about succession yeah well how does the process go from here to get somebody new into the job of leader of the liberal party and prime minister of canada well so let's let's drill down a little bit. Let's assume for a moment that there is no internal pressure forcing him out.

Let's assume it's entirely on the opposition parties to do what they can do to oust this or make this government fall. We know that the Bloc and the Conservatives alone can't do it, which means they need the help of the NDP. And we also know based on some Abacus data polling that in the aftermath of the Freeland resignation, the Tories went up by one percentage point in terms of voter intention. They're up at 45% according to Abacus. The Liberals are down a point and so are the NDP.

The Bloc are up one. And so there's definitely been movement there. My question to you is, why wouldn't I listen to a lot of interviews with Jagmeet Singh and other members of his caucus? And they are they are equivocating on when they would be willing to make the move. Jagmeet was on your Morning, and for seven minutes, he wouldn't say that he would help bring this government down at the first available opportunity.

Why is that? Why do you think that is? I watched the interview. I thought, frankly, it wasn't a terrific interview. No. But I think what's going to happen, because if we listen to the words that he said

and the words of his House leader, is that there's no opportunity right now because the House isn't in session. If it all falls on, as you're saying, if it all falls on external forces, the opposition parties, there's a schedule for the House to come back on the 27th, and then at some point, and Peter Julian, the NDP House leader, was a little more specific about this, he believed that probably about mid-February, there would be the opportunity to pass a non-confidence motion against Justin Trudeau, if that's his decision to hang on. Yeah, but do you recognize the optics issue with uh with a date like that because the the the tories have been very good at um at framing this about pensions for the ndp that if they hold out long enough there's money at the end of the rainbow for for the ndp if they hold

out and keep this government alive just long enough. And based on what Peter Julian said yesterday, it kind of lines up. Now, whether or not that's true is, at this point, kind of irrelevant, isn't it? It's perception is reality. It's not true, and it's a stupid argument, frankly, because, of course, you know, it's based on being an MP, and Mr. Singh faces no difficulty re-elected in his own riding. So, you know, it's just one of those things. No, no, listen, I think you and I both agree.

But it doesn't make sense. Even if it doesn't make sense, though, Tom, people feel it makes sense. We're in a feelings, we're in an emotional time. People feel it makes sense. And I would argue, I'm looking at the numbers, if the NDP went down as the liberals went down, the NDP are still tethered to that. They've got the liberal noose around their neck because the perception is that these two parties

have been walking in lockstep, trying to get to a certain date so that money can be awarded. I'm not saying it's true. I'm saying people believe it's true. Well, you're repeating it though. And it's an argument that doesn't hold water for all the reasons that I just said, the very simple reasons.

So really, it doesn't. No, there's no value to repeating it. No, no, no, no, no. I think we're going to disagree on that. Perception is reality. You look at the conservatives were very good at framing Stéphane Zion when he became leader. They did the same thing with Ignatieff to great success. And everything afterwards was informed by how they defined him.

And they tried to do it with Justin and they failed, but they've been very good at framing this arrangement between the NDP and the liberals to their benefit. That's all I'm saying. And these are the cards that the NDP have been dealt. They have to accept that this is what is these these are the cards that the ndp have been dealt they have to they have to accept that this is what they're pushing back against and from and from this point i mean since they've ripped up the uh supply and confidence deal uh you know to come back a little

bit uh there's the polls you're speaking of and others have put them at 2021 which is up from 18 last time not enough though you know and this is the key piece, not enough to be perceived as the head of the Liberals and therefore the party that should be, that a lot of people who have been Liberal voters in the past might want to leave the Liberals to join another party that looks like it has a chance. My sense here is that the NDP have to do something to differentiate themselves from the liberals, because based on what I'm seeing, people see them maybe not as one in the same, but having been rowing in the same direction for so long that a vote for one is a vote for the other. And if Tom's still there, I'd love to know how the NDP push back against that, how they

cut their own path. Extremely challenging because Polyev has got the advantage of being clearly different. Yeah. You know, he's got the anti-Trudeau vote and he's got as well the conservative vote. So one of the problems that Singh and the NDP had was if you were just totally off Trudeau and off the liberals, you really only had one place to go until recently. So now Singh has got this challenge of trying to bring some of that anti-Trudeau vote that is with Mr. Polyev now, but maybe uncomfortably so trying to bring that over

but also trying to bring over people who are still with the liberals yeah yeah and so it's a very difficult uh balancing act to try to uh kind of tease away people who really stuck with trudeau pretty much to the end with another group um who turned off him and turned away from him some time ago. So his challenge is a lot more difficult, yes, than Polyev because of the Cassadiel. And Tom, I'll give you... Go on. And I think he's right. We got dental care, we got a pharmacare, and those are important. But it still leaves this political challenge. Yeah, those are things that NDP voters

and people who have a penchant for voting NDP would want to hang their hats on. And I guess the trick must be, and you tell me if I'm wrong, the trick is going to be, how do we own those things all while sort of trying to push aside any of the spillover that comes from the negative feelings towards the government? Yeah, that is it.

That's the challenge he's got to overcome. And he's got to, I mean, if he wants to, these folks are all in the game because they wanted to become prime minister. So, but it's not going to happen for the liberals this time. I just can't see it. Oh, no. Hey, Tom, Tom, I'm going to have to leave it there. I'm so sorry, and I hope you'll come back and join us again on the Ben Mulroney Show. I'd be happy to.