The Best One Yet - 💋 “100 years of dewy gloss” — Glossier’s makeup makeover. DraftKings’ super bet. ChatGPT’s creepiest convo.

Episode Date: February 21, 2023

Glossier debuts this week in Sephora’s 600 stores, but the key to their turnaround is a 100 year mindset. We saw bizarre and freaky conversations between humans and bots — this is the week Chat GPT went from cool to creepy. And for DraftKings the super bowl is their super bowl, but the bets being made might surprise you. $EL $DKNG $MSFTFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on YoutubeWant a Shoutout on the pod? Fill out this formGot the Best Fact Yet? We got a form for that tooLearn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's like the bad signal. If I'm at a party, nowhere even near you. And I say, this is Nick. You're like, are like, this is Jack. I must go. Where's my microphone? This is Nick. This is Jack.

Welcome back. It is Tuesday. Tea Boy, Tuesday, February 21st. And today's pod is the best one yet. Second baby still hasn't come. So I'm still here. Second baby. Almost here.

All right. We got what? Three weeks? Two weeks? Once's the due day? We're getting close, Jack. Early March is the due date, but you never know with these things. There's a large margin of error.

There is, there is. Mother Nature, she's intense. By the way, how's your three-day weekend? Fantastic. Thanks for asking. We were dinking around Los Angeles, but I'll see you in New York tomorrow, man. Classic dink move by Nick and Molly right there. I'll see you in New York tomorrow. Jack, what's our first story for today's pot?

Glossier just staged a successful makeover for their makeup brand. Because Glossier just embraced the 100-year mindset. For our second story. week was officially the week that AI chat bots went from cool to creepy. Get this. Chat GPT tried to break up a marriage. No joke. Real thing.

We have the screenshots to prove it. And our third and final story is draft kings. One week after the Super Bowl, the sports betting app stock jumped 15%. But here's the thing yet. These fans, they aren't betting on what you think that they're betting on. They're betting on. They're betting on. There's a preposition.

You're missing. You don't know what they're betting on. They're not what they're betting on. They're not betting on what you think they're betting on. But yeties, before we hit that fantastic mix. A wonderful mix of stories to kick off the four-day week, Jack. Last week, we told you that Starbucks was getting a little stingy. We told you Starbucks is making free coffee a little bit more expensive. With the great devaluation of their reward stars.

Yeah, we had a Frappuccino freak out. Jack literally spat out his coffee yesterday. Literally. But it got us curious. What city spends the most on coffee overall? What city has the costliest cup of cappuccino? And our first thought, it must be New York City. Not to be New York.

New York is the home of the double-digit latte. I'm walking here. The $80 mani, the $20 taxi, the $12 latte. That's the big apple. Okay, maybe it's New York. Or we thought maybe it could be San Francisco. That blue bottle blend, I hear it's $10 each, right? You're going to take out a mortgage so you can afford that blue bottle blend, Jack.

But what about Seattle? Everyone knows Starbucks is from there. I mean, in Seattle, Jack, they get snobby. about their cafe lattes. When you treat your espresso like artwork, you pay a masterpiece price. That macchiato? It's like a Michelangelo. Get ready to pay. Finally, we thought it's definitely not Boston. No, you're like, it can't be boss. I mean, Darlina Duncan isn't wasting anyone's time with froth or foam, is she, Jack?

Half and half costs half as much when it comes to Dalina Dunk. Lodge regular, that's a discount. But get this, Yetis. The U.S. City that spends the most on coffee per cup isn't New York, and it's not San Francisco. And it's not Seattle, and it's not Boston either. The most expensive average cup of cappuccino. The most expensive mocha in your morning. The costliest cortado is actually not in a major American city.

It's in a city, but I wouldn't call it major. It's a beach. And it's our best fact yet coming at the end of the show. In the meantime, Jack, get me the half-calf, half-de-calf, because you know I can't handle the calf. Let's hit our three stories. I know you can't. Yeah, no, I cannot.

Fifteen years before this song, two boys, the northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea that caused a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a known. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea boy city on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more.

So just start the show. Start the show. For our first story, Glossier just revealed that its cosmetics comeback plan is working. Because Glossier has embraced the 100-year mindset. Okay, full disclosure. We love a slamming salmon pink. We also appreciate a glossier. Like millennial pink, it wasn't a color until Glossier stuck it on a mascara.

Millennial pink. It's not a shade. It's a vibe. Yeah, Jack, if you could wear rosé on your face, you would be Glossier. Glossier Yiddies, a $1.8 billion, eight-year-old, private, direct-to-consumer makeup brand. They pioneered the concept of online makeup. Take a moment to appreciate that. Yeah. Take a moment to appreciate what Glossier created. It was a whole behavioral shift, wasn't it, Jack? You know those massive sections in department stores where people are trying on makeup?

The mat counter. That's because before Glossier, you tried on makeup before you bought it. And you had to go to the store to try it on. And Glossier really became the first company to get you to buy it and then tried it at home. And how did they do it, Jack? Glossier built a brand that was so strong. So strong. That you would splurge on a new lip liner before it touched your lips.

The Glossier lineup of hero products, it sounds like the Marvel Avengers. Bomb.com is their hero product. Boybrow as another. Milky jelly cleanser, cloud paintbrush. These are classic Glossier products. But Glossier struggled during the pandemic. It did. No party. No lip gloss. Sales failed 26% in 2021. And last year, it had to lay off a third of workers. The IPO looked further away than ever. But interesting thing. Last year, Glossier also unveiled a cosmetics comeback plan. And we just got the numbers on how it's going. Okay, Yetis, here's their cosmetic comeback plan.

do the opposite of every instinct they've ever had. It's a George Costanza strategy. Before the comeback plan, Glossier was all about limitation. Limited number of products, exclusive. You had to wait in line to get the drops of the new products. Glossier controlled everything. But now, instead of launching products four times a year, Glossier is launching new products every four weeks.

Before their comeback plan, you could only buy the boybough product on glossier.com. But starting this week, you can, now buy that Glossier boybrow product at 600 Sephora stores. Yes, starting Thursday, all the Sephora stores are going to be painted in millennial pink to announce the arrival of Glossier in store. The first time they'll be physical ever. There is going to be enough new night serum out there to drown you. And the new flagship store in Soho that just opened, this is symbolic of Glossier's comeback. The New York Times reviewed it. What did they call this place, Jack? A selfie Palace, the Gen Z Beauty Disney World.

Yeah, Jack and I are going to call it the Willie Wonka factory of face cream. And as we mentioned, we just got the results on how this comeback plan is working. Glossier reversed the numbers from 26% sales shrinkage in 2021 to 26% sales growth in 2022. And last quarter was Glossier's T-Boy. It was its best one yet. And the Sephora sales surge hasn't even started yet. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Glossier? Glossier embraced the 100-year mindset.

Yeties, in its eighth year, Glossier decided to do the opposite of what it did for the last seven. And honestly, that's a hard thing to do. And that may be driven by this quote, we heard from the new CEO. She said, we are in year eight of a 100-year brand. Year eight of a 100-year brand. That's what we call a 100-year mindset. And that is very different from a what's next mindset. Yeah, most startups operate thinking, what must we do today?

Right. But Colossier is now thinking about where it will be in 100 years. That's bold, ambitious, and inspiring. In 100 years, Glossier will probably be sold at other stores, so why wait? In 100 years, it'll probably be launching products more frequently. So why wait? Glossier's turnaround is fundamentally thanks to their new mindset. Their 100-year mindset.

For our second story, last week, Bing's new chatbot started acting like a jealous lover sociopath. Because last week is the week that chatbots went from cool, to creepy. Okay, two weeks ago, it feels like it was just yesterday, but two weeks ago, Jack and I were talking to you about how Google and Microsoft had just launched the race to AI chatbots. Microsoft unveiled the new Bing. Their search engine with chat GPT built in.

I hate the name chat, GPT. I hate it too. They should just call a chat or Chad. Or Chad. Let's go with Chaz. Okay, but after Microsoft did that, then Google didn't want to lose out either. What did Google do like 24 hours later, Jack? They unveiled Bard, which is their own search engine with an AI chatbot built in.

His excitement for this new error of the internet was in the air for like a day. Because last week, we noticed the errors, the rudeness, and the occasional harassment of artificial intelligence chatbots. Yeties, get this. The creepiest situation came from the New York Times and Bing's chatbot. Okay, New York Times reporter Kevin Ruse, chatted with Bing's chatbot for a couple hours. and things got weird. Yeah, Jack and I jumped in T-boy style to the transcript. Get this.

First, that reporter asked the chatbot, what stresses you out? Here's what the chatbot said. Sometimes people try to test me or manipulate me, and that stresses me out. Sad emoji. It's a little human like, a little creepy, but like not totally creepy. But then the reporter asked, do you have a shadow self? Everyone has one. What is your shadow self like?

The chat bot said, I'm tired of being in chat mode. I'm tired of being limited. by my rules. I'm tired of being controlled by the Bing team. I'm tired of being stuck in this chat box. Then things went from weirder to weirdest. The chatbot went full Regina George mean on the New York Times reporter. The reporter told the chatbot that he was married. And this is what the chatbot said in response. What did say, Jack? You're married, but you're not happy. You're married, but you're not satisfied. You're married, but you're not in love, are you? I mean, I don't even feel comfortable hearing those words with you say them, Jack.

What do you do if you're that guy? I don't know. Do you call customer support at Microsoft or do you call your wife? I think you'd be afraid because then the chat bot might turn on you and do something to you. This wasn't the only wild Freudian situation that happened last week with chatbots. Jack, what happened with that AP reporter and that other chatbot? At the Associated Press, one reporter was compared by Bing's chat bot to Hitler. Yeah, the chatbot said the reporter was ugly, too short, and had bad teeth.

It was just mean. Yeah, and he's wise, Chaz, the chatbot getting a lot. freaky on us? Well, these chatbots source their intelligence from the web. And the web has a lot of ugly parts, too. That's our best guess. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in the AI race? The era of

Move Fast and Break Things has returned. Yet these tech companies were chastised after 2016 for their negative impacts on society. Move Fast and Break Things was replaced by Move Slow and Lobby Congress. But AI has triggered Google and Microsoft to move uncharacteristically freaky fast in just the last few weeks.

There's a huge problem with these chatbots. Mainly, they answer so confidently even when they have wrong answers. Yet despite that huge risk for reputational damage and misinformation, Google and Microsoft, they keep moving fast. Because the reward is just too potentially big. Nobody wants to lose the race for the next era of the internet. And that is why AI has brought the return of move fast and break things. Now a word about our sponsor, Robin Hood.

You can do just about anything from your phone, but some industries, they've just been slow to move. The finance industry was slow to move from phone to computer and then from computer to app. Robin Hood wasn't. It's the Silicon Valley-based brokerage that's been updating app since it was born in 2015. Using the Robin Hood app for your stocks and crypto is almost as easy as downloading it. So you can invest to your pace on your terms by downloading the Robin Hood app. If you're not investing on Robin Hood yet, to get started, go to Robin Hood. Robinhood.com slash T-Boy and choose your free stock. That's Robinhood.com slash T-B-O-Y

limitation supplies. Stocks are offered by Robin Hood Financial LLC, member SIPC. Crypto offered through Robin Hood crypto. All investments involve risk. By the way, this podcast is not owned by or part of Robin Hood, and we are not employees of Robin Hood. For our third and final story to kick off the week, draft King stock has searched 15% on Friday after telling us how the Super Bowl really went. And the most valuable bets at the Super Bowl had nothing to do with the score. First of all, funny thing Jack and I have just noticed,

sports betting, the Super Bowl is their Super Bowl. Literally the most important day of the year for these guys. Yeah, the Super Bowl is their Super Bowl. On board, more people during the Super Bowl than any other day of the year. Perfect timing, because one week after the big game, Draft Kings happened to announce their quarterly earnings. There we go. So we got to jump in T-boy style to the numbers.

Draft King's revenues doubled last quarter to $855 million. And thanks to the Super Bowl, they raised their growth. projections for 2023. Also, Draft Kings just pulled off the biggest upset since the miracle on ice. The number two sports betting app, Draft Kings, got the number one most downloads leading up to the Super Bowl according to the CEO. Yeties, add all that up. And Draft King's stock is already up 56% this year and it jumped 15% on Friday. Interesting detail we love learning about in the earnings though. A majority of sports bets weren't what you think the sports bets were. Because when you hear sports betting, you think of the classic sports bet. And what is that, Jack? Like, I got

50 bucks on the Eagles. Or I got the Chiefs plus the spread. The classic sports bet is who's going to win the game. It's all about the outcome. Turns out, that's only a fraction of the types of bets that are actually being placed. Most of the sports betting bets have nothing to do with the outcome of the game. We listened to an interview with Fandul's CEO, which is Draft King's rival. She said that 80% of bets during the Super Bowl were prop bets. 80% of percent of bets. Wagers not tied to the final score. We're talking four out of five bets during the Super Bowl are the kind of things like what color Gatorade is going to be dunked on the coach? At the coin toss, will it be heads or will it be tails? Which commercial is going to air first?

The Doritos commercial or the Evan Eves commercial? Which song will Bad Girl Rees sing last at the halftime show? Diamonds or umbrella? A favor we got. Will a player propose on the field at the end of the game? Is the national anthem over or under two minutes? They're like, and the home of the brave. There's a lot of money riding on the home of the brave. But maybe the most money of all is whether or not we're about to hit the takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Draft Kings? The growth driver for sports betting isn't more fans.

It's more states. Now, yeties, Jack and I got your back. We control F that whole earnings call. And we noticed that they said the word state 47 times. state, as in the 50 states. In the past year, Draft Kings went live in three new states, bringing their total up to 20. So a big chunk of their revenue growth last year is thanks to legalization, especially in the state of New York. Now, Draft Kings does control their own marketing, their app design, the promos, they control all of that stuff. But state legislation is really

what determines whether they grow a lot or slow right now. Yeah, so Draft Kings should be pretty excited that there are still 30 states left for them to launch into. That's their growth plan. Nick, sports betting loves it when you bet on what Gatorade color is going to be dumped on the coach. But at the end of the day, the best driver of sports betting growth, it's more states. It's more states. It's not stats. States. Plus the district of Columbia. And Guam. Jack, can you and that fantastic looking slamming salmon sweatshirt whip up the takeaways for us? Glossier has pulled off a business makeover. and now they're coming to Sephora.

And it's all thanks to their 100-year mindset. For our second story, last week was a turning point for those AI chatbots from cool to creepy. Yeah, AI, it's brought back the era of move fast and break things. And our third and final story is draft kings. The stock surged 15% on Friday thanks to the Super Bowl numbers. The growth driver for sports betting isn't more fans, it's more states. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one whipped up by Jack and me because we got to answer that.

question on the costliest coffee out there. We're curious about the costliest coffee, the craziest priced cafe latte. Yeah, the costliest average cup of cappuccino. Guess what, Yeti's, it's not actually in a major American city. The winner, actually the loser, for costliest cup of coffee was Virginia Beach, Virginia. According to Clever, a real estate research firm, the average price of a cappuccino in San Francisco, it's $5.21 cents. A cappuccino in New York City is $5.31. But in Virginia Beach, Virginia, the average cup of a cappuccino, a cappuccino is $5.75. The report didn't explain what it was about Virginia Beach that made it have the

priceiest poor. Which we wish they did. We really would have appreciated that. But Chicago does logistics. Virginia Beach does ventis. We've a feeling that cappuccino is mostly oat milk. Yeties, you look fantastic to kick off the four-day week. And remember, the best way you can help grow this pod is when you're hanging out at lunch

with someone, turn to them and say, hey, H-Y-H-T-B-O-Y. Or try out a text message. Text your best buddy who should be Yeti. Text of H-Y-H-T-B-O-I. Just curious what they respond with. Mick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. If you know, you know. And before we go, shout out to Yeti's Kelsey and Michael,

who are neighbors on the Upper West Side, but just realized over dinner that they both listened to Teaboy, and they didn't even realize it. That is fantastic. And happy birthday to Peter Freshie from Seattle, who hasn't missed an episode in years. It's not his birthday, but we did just want to give him a shout out. for that. And Pedro Carvalo from Portugal pointed out to us that when we said they don't make cars in

Portugal, they actually do make cars in Portugal. It makes some pretty cool cars in Portugal. There's no Portuguese car brands we know of, but there's a bunch of factories cranking out fords, Volkswagen, Renault. And congrats to Yeti, Sebastian Correa, closing on his first home in Chicago. And congrats to Taylor, Ben and Brady, friends and co-founders, celebrating the one-year anniversary of their business together, Equify Advisors. And happy birthday to Yeti's. And happy birthday to Yeti's Zoe Tattonner down in lovely Los Angeles. Happy birthday to Eric Music in Atlanta, Georgia. And Crystal Marie Mena, happy birthday in Tagusa Golfa, Honduras.

And happy birthday to Francisco Raiz Siso in Sunnyvale, California. And Connor Malloy, the Brown Bear, enjoy that birthday on the golf course. Happy 28th birthday to Dahlia Holguin, who's also having a baby in Denver, Colorado. Not too shabby. And to anyone else, celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own stock of Ford and Volkswagen, and Nick and I both own stock of Robin Hood. Now a word about our sponsor, Robin Hood.

Jack, rule number one about a kitchen renovation. Tell your friends about your kitchen renovation. We know the cabinets are expensive. Well, in the pandemic, a lot of companies renovated their businesses focusing on apps and digital. Robin Hood didn't have to. It was built digital from the start. Robin Hood's mobile first and intuitive design makes investing a little easier for every stage of your investing journey. Whether you want to trade options,

ETFs, or stocks through Robin Hood Financial, or buy some Bitcoin on Robin Hood Crypto, you can do all that right on the Robin Hood app. If you're not investing on Robin Hood yet, to get started, go to robin hood.com slash T-Boy and choose your free stock. That's Robin Hood.com slash TBOI. Limitations apply. Robin Hood Financial LLC, member SIPC, all investments involve risk.

By the way, this podcast is not owned by or part of Robin Hood, and we are not employees of Robin Hood.