The Best One Yet - 🇺🇸 “47’s Favorite Number” — Trump’s Report Card. Bumble’s Boomerang CEO. Gmail’s AI Clippy.

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Nick. This is Jack. Welcome back. It is Tuesday, T-Boy, Tuesday, January 21st. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Welcome back from the long weekend.

Starting point is 00:00:16 How was Jennifer? How's your mom doing, man? We went down to New Hampshire. We saw my mom. Lovely. I went skiing at my childhood ski hill. No better way to do it. It's just one hill.

Starting point is 00:00:24 It's five dollars for a lift ticket. You walk up that thing. And you were with your parents in San Francisco. We saw them in San Francisco. Molly and I went down to Carmel by the Sea. Jack, I saw Pebble Beach. Nice. I didn't play Pebble Beach, but I saw Pebble Beach. Jack, three stories for today's T-boy. Besties, welcome back. What do we got on the pod? For our first story, yesterday, Donald Trump was inaugurated to his second term as president. So Jack and I will tell you the most important number of the next four years, Trump's scorecard.

Starting point is 00:00:52 For our second story, it's Bumble's founder, Whitney Wolf Hurd. She is back as CEO. She has boomeramed back to Bumble. research the stock performance of boomerang CEOs. And our third and final story. Have you noticed that your Gmail is asking you if you can summarize your inbox with AI? Oh, hey, Jack, can I help you read the rematch? Yet is Google is pulling a Costco. They're dished out AI to all corporate g-mails for free? It's a free sample?

Starting point is 00:01:22 It's actually not a free sample, more in our story. More on that. But yet is, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. What a fantastic pod for. a four-day week. Love the mix, Jack. Yeties, we're about to play you a five-second clip from a famous live concert. Besties, can you guess

Starting point is 00:01:38 who this is? Push and play. If you said Jimmy Hendricks playing Wild Thing live, you'd be correct. But that is not the wildest part about this song. Because at the end of it, Jimmy lit his guitar

Starting point is 00:02:01 on fire. That's right. Jimmy Hendricks finished his solo by burning his guitar on stage. And which guitar was it that Jimmy Hendrix lit on fire? Well, Jack, that would be the guitar that invented rock and roll. The Fender Stratocaster. From Bruce Springsteen to Blink 182, your favorite guitar solo was probably played on a Fender Stratocaster. But few know about the strat, as the Beatles called it, and its full true origin story. This guitar was the result of a bitter entrepreneur rivalry. This guitar involved the biggest financial deal in music history at the time.

Starting point is 00:02:37 important? It's hanging in the Smithsonian Museum in D.C. Because regular guitars couldn't be heard over the loud drums and the vocals out there. We needed the guitar to be electric for rock and roll to be possible. Ipso facto, no strat, no rolling stones. Yet is, this guitar is

Starting point is 00:02:53 the latest episode of our weekly show, the best idea yet. Best idea yet. The untold origin stories of the products you're obsessed with. So later today after this episode, check out our weekly deep dive show. New episodes drop every single Tuesday. Tap the link in the episode description because the Fender Stratocaster is simply the best idea yet. It's the best.

Starting point is 00:03:12 But Jack, today's show, this T-Booy, this is a T-boy, should we enter three stories? Let's get a minute. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, starting today, Trump kicks off his second term with an agenda of political and economic disruption. But Trump has one number. That's his personal report card. And we'll

Starting point is 00:04:07 tell you what it is. But yet he's eight years ago, Donald Trump inherited a solid economy from Barack Obama, and then he supercharged it. How? Mainly by cutting taxes. Yes. It ballooned the national deficit, but it also ballooned the stock market. Now, a few years later, that all ended with a pandemic that damaged Donald Trump's economic scorecard. Trump's second term aims to do the same thing as his first term did. And what is that again, Jack? Supercharged, the strong economy that he's inheriting from Joe Biden. But pause the pod for a sec, Jack.

Starting point is 00:04:36 Could you please sum up Trump's big economic plans for the next four years? And can you do it in a way that is simple, shareable, and involves a little bit of alliteration? You want me to just use three letters? I would like to use three letters, probably the same one. Here's the three T's, taxes, tariffs, and truth posts. The three T's. The first one of them is taxes. Trump already cut corporate taxes back in 2017, almost in half. Yeah, down from 39% to 21%. Now, he'll definitely convince the Republican-controlled Congress to extend those tax cuts and probably kill taxes on tips, too. Also on taxes, he'll

Starting point is 00:05:11 possibly bring back the salt deductions, which help wealthy homeowners save on tax. All right, the second T is tariffs. Trump is determined to massively escalate the trade war that he started in the first. first term. Besties, you know what we're expecting next? Trade War II. We're talking 60% tariffs on everything made in China. And 10% tariffs on every other country of the world. Now, we should point out that we don't think tariffs will bring jobs back from overseas like Trump thinks that. But the pain they inflict on other countries could be used as leverage to get other things for the USA. All right, Jack, that's two T's. What's our third and final one? Truth posts. Truths. Because Trump governed the first term through tweets. This time, he'll do it through truth.

Starting point is 00:05:53 So Yetis, we're expecting executive orders on immigration. That could have a huge impact on the economy. And they'll be posted on truth first. And more executive orders to deregulate businesses, liberate crypto, punish enemies, a whole bunch of them. There's also so much more to expect, but lots that we can't possibly expect. For example, who knew a pandemic was going to define Trump's first term? Didn't see that in 2016. I think that's called a Black Swan event, right? That's racist, Jack. Now, time for our takeaway. So Jack, what's the take? takeaway for our buddies over watching the Trump economy.

Starting point is 00:06:27 Every president has a different scoreboard, but they're all economic. Yet he's the overwhelming reason why Trump won. People thought he'd be better for the economy. But the metric by which presidents rate their economy is different. For example, Obama cared most about job numbers because he took over after the Great Recession. Biden cared most about inflation because he presided during historic price increases. Well, we think Trump cares most about. about the S&P 500, one single, simple, bragable number.

Starting point is 00:06:59 The stock market is Trump in a nutshell. Oh, totally. It represents richness. I mean, Jack, the S&P 500 is literally the 500 biggest stocks in the stock market in one single number. Now, the most interesting thing to follow in Trump's second term is the conflict between his favorite economic policies and his favorite economic scoreboard. Good point, because Trump's tax and tariff policies could increase inflation and interest

Starting point is 00:07:23 rates, and that could hurt his scorecard number. It could hurt the stock market. Yeties, every president has a different economic scoreboard. For Trump, it's the S&P 500. For our second story, Bumble's founder, Whitney Wolf heard, stepped down two years ago. But get this, now she is coming back, baby. So we did the research on boomerang CEOs. Boomerang CEOs. And the numbers are wild. But Jack, let's start up this story with a hero stat. This one's wild. What do we got, man. 20% of Americans who left their job during the pandemic have returned to that old job. Boomerang employees, Yetis, they are becoming the new normal. Although, you probably don't get the same desk you had before. And if your yogurt was left in the fridge, it's probably gone as well. It's probably still there, actually. All those threats that were cleaning out the fridge on dry. They never happens. They never do.

Starting point is 00:08:13 Well, Yeti's boomerang employees even happen at the top with boomerang CEOs. For example, ladies first dating at Bumble is bringing back their CEO, Whitney Wolfhurst. That's right. The Queen Bee is boomeranging back to Bumble. Whitney Wolf Hurd founded Bumble after leaving Tinder in the mid-20 teens. She was actually the youngest woman ever to IPO her business. Amazing story. After that, though, the stock of Bumble has fallen by 80%. So she stepped out of the CEO role in 2023. But here's the news. Whitney Wolf Hurd is now returning as CEO of Bumble in March. She's back, baby. Which is kind of ironic for a dating app company. It's kind of ironic. I know what you're thinking. It's like she broke up and now is getting back

Starting point is 00:08:52 together with her ex. It wasn't you. It was me. Maybe it was you actually. It's like a Benifer situation. It is like a better. Although I hope it turns out better for Bumble than it did for Ben Affleck. Yeah, he's been smoking a lot lately. How many times have we been together? Too many times. But Yeties, Jack and I got curious about the performance of Boomerang CEOs. So we jumped in T-Boy style and the results are fascinating. The three biggest examples of boomerang businesses are Apple, Starbucks, and Disney. Yes, they are. Jack, let's share the data with the Yeties. Disney, they got a boomerang CEO.

Starting point is 00:09:23 So tell us the story, man. Bob Eiger was an iconic CEO for 15 years. Then after he left, the stock fell under his successor, so he came back and the stock's up 20% cents. Okay, Starbucks, another amazing boomerang CEO story. Howard Schultz, like founded the company, he's actually been the CEO three different times. Yeah, true story. And in the two boomerang times when he came back, the stock five-xed and the stock rose 20%.

Starting point is 00:09:48 But maybe the most iconic boomerang CEO story of all is at Apple. Steve Jobs co-founded Apple but was fired. When Apple brought him back as CEO, the stock jumped 300% in that first year. So, Basti's added all up, and our research shows that Boomerang CEOs significantly increase the stock price. So what does this all mean? What does it mean? Is a Boomerang CEO the secret to fixing a busted business? All you got to do, bring back the CEO of your and suddenly the stock's going to hit an all-time high? No. Nope.

Starting point is 00:10:19 That's not the solution. No, it ain't because of our takeaway. Good timing, Jack. What's the takeaway for our buddies over in Boomerang CEO Dems? In leadership, there are sugar highs and there are real meals. Yeties, with some exceptions, the stock jump from a Boomerang CEO's return is a short-term sugar high. What companies and investors prefer is something that lasts long term. They want a real meal.

Starting point is 00:10:44 A real meal. So the true test of a leader, it isn't what they do on the job. We think it's how they set up the company for future success. And the best example of that is Apple with Steve Jobs and Tim Cook. Exactly, because after Steve Jobs, Tim Cook took over, and Apple's value has 20xed in those 14 years. In other words, the best thing Steve Jobs ever did was groomed Tim Cook to be his successor. Now, Bessies, we should point out from that perspective, a CEO coming back is actually kind of bad news, right, Jack? It's a sign that they didn't find the right successor last time.

Starting point is 00:11:17 So, Whitney's return to Bumble may bring the stock a short-term sugar high. Much more important, though, is who Bumble picks next to take the reins for the long term. And that would be a real meal. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, if you have a company email, Yetis, then you're getting an AI surprise this week. Google and Microsoft are both adding their AI assistant into everyone's company email. Surprise! Is it for free? Costco would like a word.

Starting point is 00:11:52 Yeties, a strange thing happened to our entire T-boy team last week. On Friday, we were all going through our morning email, and we got pop-ups from Google. They told us that AI was in our inbox. They're like, hey, Nick, hey, Jack. Can Google Gemini AI help you with your email today? They're like, please, let me summarize your email thread. Let me prioritize your unread emails. Let me help you.

Starting point is 00:12:15 Hey, Nick and Jack, please let me craft an email for you to get Jeff Bezos on your podcast. So that's what I asked, Nick. Did you upgrade our Google email account, dude? And then I said, no, Jack. And that's when I asked Jack, how much are we paying for our Google Gmail accounts and this AI new thing? What's going on, man? The answer is neither.

Starting point is 00:12:32 Because Google added AI to our T-boy corporate Google account without us asking. In fact, this is going to happen to all of you. Everyone with a corporate Gmail account is going to get this AI surprise. By the way, Nick gave it a shot. He let it craft an email to get Jeff Bezos on the show. show? Fingers crossed, fingers crossed. Honestly, in the meantime, this kind of feels like clippy. You know what I mean, Jack? Yeah, yeah. A nice little AI assistant. Popped out of nowhere and it's enthusiastically copy pasting things. Now, this felt like some kind of a free sample Costco style.

Starting point is 00:13:06 It did. It felt like a Costco free sample. It did, Jack. But guess what? It wasn't. Google raised the price on our corporate Google account. Get this, Yeties. The same day that Google added AI to all the corporate g-mails, they also raised the price of corporate Gmail by $2 per month per person. So it's not a free sample. No, it's not. And wait, there's more. Microsoft announced the same thing on the same day. How is this not collusion? Microsoft now includes co-pilot their AI assistant in all the Microsoft office email packages as well. But with Microsoft, it's not free. They're increasing the price of all office subscriptions by $3 per person per month. Now, this might sound like a bargain to you because both Gmail,

Starting point is 00:13:50 and Microsoft Office, we're charging 20 bucks a month for AI. Now everyone gets it for just two or three a month. But that monthly fee for AI was optional before. This new, upgraded price is required. This is a huge revenue boost for both Google and Microsoft because Google and Microsoft control basically the entire country's corporate emails. So like Gmail, Microsoft Office will now eagerly summarize any email for you whether you like it or not. But they're going to offer to at Sundar Pichai on the show. And both of them look just a little bit desperate for you to use AI. They look thirsty. It feels like clippy. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Gmail and Microsoft Office? AI has hit a speed bump on the innovation curve. Ah, the innovation curve. Yeties,

Starting point is 00:14:40 that describes the pace of how tech is adopted by five different types of people in that order. The first people who adopt technology are the innovators. The second are called the early adopters, And then there's three more phases, which represent the majority of consumers. But interesting thing, AI has hit a speed bump. It now needs to get beyond the early adopters because it's kind of stopped there. Look at the data. ChatGPT downloads have slowed, and AI usage isn't surging like it was the same time last year. And that is why Google and Microsoft are now forcing everybody to try AI by bundling it in emails.

Starting point is 00:15:14 They need you to try AI because they need to get past the early adopters. Besties add it all up and AI just hit a speed bump on the innovation curve. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for Tea Boy Tuesday? Trump's second term has begun and his economic policy is three T's, taxes, tariffs, and truth posts. Every president has a different scoreboard, but they are all economic. For our second story, it's Bumble. They brought back their founding CEO, Whitney Wolf Hurd.

Starting point is 00:15:44 She is a boomerang CEO. And when it comes to leadership, there are sugar highs and there are real meals. And our third and final story is Gmail and Microsoft. They're now forcing all corporate clients to pay for AI for all of their customers. Oh, hey, Jack, I summarize the takeaways for you over there? Why are you talking like Pinocchio? Because I feel like Pinocchio is the ultimate AI. I'm a real boy.

Starting point is 00:16:08 Well, Yet is the AI adoption curve. It is hitting a speed bump. But yet is, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, we just got the early data on New York. city's new congestion pricing, the biggest traffic tax in America. Travel time over the New York to New Jersey tunnels and bridges are down 30 to 40 percent. During morning rush hour, it takes half as long to get through the Holland Tunnel. So it's definitely improved traffic. Cross town Manhattan

Starting point is 00:16:36 from the river to the river, it takes 20 to 30 percent less time. Although we should also point out restaurants are reporting 10 percent less business and parking garages are getting 20 percent less business. I'm surprised restaurants are reporting 10 percent less business. I think a lot of people would pop in and grab a bagel, Jack. With a car, though, like, aren't most people taking the subway? So much double parking. Second, the Ethiopia Stock Exchange, a brand new stock market started trading last week. That's right, 60 years ago, Ethiopia's emperor shut down their young stock exchange. But Ethiopia's Africa's second largest nation with 120 million people. So they just relaunched the stock exchange. Fun fact, 25% of Ethiopia's economy is the coffee bean. And finally,

Starting point is 00:17:17 The NBA could be getting an awkward new rival. Yeah. Because LeBron James has started a basketball league. Yeah, well, get this. LeBron's business manager is part of a startup that is raising $5 billion to start a new league. It's going to have six men's teams and six women's teams and play the games worldwide. It's basically like an international mini NBA Olympics. And it's the latest disruption of professional sports.

Starting point is 00:17:43 Now, time for the best fact yet. This one whipped up by Jack and me because it is National Hugging Day. I'm a big hugger, man. In Big Hugger, big hugers, we do it. Look at this. The length of the hug matters. A hug lasting at least 20 seconds releases more oxytocin and amplifies the calming effects compared to a short hug.

Starting point is 00:18:01 I got to say, 20 seconds, that's a cuddle. I mean, Jack, a 20-second hug is a kidnap. That's what that is. We've hugged a million times. Have we ever held each other for 20 seconds? I don't even know if it all adds up to 20 seconds. By the way, teams that hug studies. show or teammates who hug tend to show improved performance and trust and just do better.

Starting point is 00:18:21 We can attest to that. And finally, we ask Chat Chapti who are the best huggers out there? Guess what Chat Chapti said? They said, The Rock, Oprah, Kiana Reeves, and Winnie the Pooh. I would love to get a hug from Winnie the Pooh. We don't know what data they used because this is a chat bot and it's never been hugged, but Yetis, those are the best hugers. So Yetis, if you got a buddy near you, give them a hug right now. And while you're holding them for 20 seconds, whisper into their ear. H-Y-H-D-B-O-I. Have you had the best on yet?

Starting point is 00:18:49 By the way, Eddies, before you go, remember to check out our weekly show The Best Idea Yet, because we just dropped a brand new episode today. Without the Fender Stratocaster, we wouldn't be able to hear the guitar in Stairway to Heaven. That's right.

Starting point is 00:19:02 This guitar led to rock and roll. You're going to love the story, so check out the best idea yet. And before we go, a happy birthday to Seoul Owenstein, turning Dirty 30 in New York City. And Jack, get this. What?

Starting point is 00:19:18 Saul is doing a senior citizen-themed bar crawl across Manhattan because he's turning 30. Senior citizen, huh? I'm joining you tomorrow, Saul. And Max and Karen, San Francisco, just welcome to a beautiful baby girl named Carol last week, and she's a tea girl. Congratulations. And happy birthday to Mira Ashwin. He's turned 14, a proud Swifty in Ridgewood, New Jersey. On the way to school and crushing it in school.

Starting point is 00:19:42 And Thomas Tawashterna, the bestie Tawa referred him to this podcast. And we should have a national. Tell a buddy day about T-boy, thanks to Thomas. Happy birthday, Tommy. Happy birthday to Lacey Matney in Lake Oswego, Oregon. And we heard you have a prophet puppy named Polly Puck. And Lulu Bacon, the best name we've ever said on this podcast, just turned 10 years old in Alameda, California.

Starting point is 00:20:06 Happy birthday, Lulu Bacon. And a huge, happy first birthday to T.J. Agby in Jersey City, the big one. Just one, but still a babe. And congratulations to Kendra Sinclair, who's pregnant with the... their first child upstate. The owner of the reclaimed motel is going to have a baby in the next week or two. Happy early B day. And a big shout out to Trevor Yeager, who's been listening to T-Boy all the time on a four-mile walk. T-boys spend their top pond for two straight years. Trevor,

Starting point is 00:20:35 love that walk you're doing in Florida every day, pumped to be there with you. And to anyone else who's celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own stock of Bumble and Disney. Nick and I both own stock of Apple, and we both own ETFs of the S&P 500. Is Black Swan event racist? Did you just Google that? No.

Starting point is 00:21:01 According to Gemini, for free, it is not.

The Best One Yet - 🇺🇸 “47’s Favorite Number” — Trump’s Report Card. Bumble’s Boomerang CEO. Gmail’s AI Clippy.

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