The Best One Yet - 🥪 “AI Can’t Bake Bread” — Jersey Mike’s IPO. OPEC for Demand. Nantucket’s Influencer Drama. +Weather’s “Wet Bias”

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Friday, the real Friday, July 31st. And today's pot is the best one yet. And this is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. And a happy last day of July to all those who celebrate. Wow.

Starting point is 00:00:15 What are you doing? What's the plan? It's almost vacation month. Although I feel like I've been on vacation all month already. Are you doing the last day of July softball game, Jack? Is that what's going on here? Nick, I'm playing my first softball game tonight for the first time in 11 years. What's the over under on?

Starting point is 00:00:30 and the hammy on that one, Jack. I haven't sprinted in like three years, so... I think there's a call sheet going on right now about how many Achilles Jack comes back with. Dude, I told the coach... I'm just a ringer for this game. I told the coach, it's my first game in 10 years. He's putting me at third base.

Starting point is 00:00:46 You're a grown man. There's a coach, Jack? I'm sorry. This is why we got into entrepreneurship, your own boss over here. Jack, three fantastic stories for the best show and business. What have we got on the TV boy?

Starting point is 00:00:56 For our first story, Jersey mics went public yesterday with the most vinegar-soaked IPO of all time. Jersey Mike's doc. It popped on day one because AI can't make a BLT. For our second story, while the war in Iran adds new combatants and new battlefields, oil isn't rising. It's because China's on an oil diet, and it's lost 40% of its weight. And our third and final story, an Antucket shop banned influencers, but then accidentally became an influencer magnet.

Starting point is 00:01:23 That's the Barber Striseand effect, and every business got to know about it. But yet, he's before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. What a mix of stories to go into the weekend. Just love the mix, Jack. No one else a donut. We usually cover financial forecasts on this show. But weather forecasts are now affecting financial forecasts. Because the biggest driver of how much money you will spend today?

Starting point is 00:01:43 It's that tiny little weather app on your phone. Specifically, it's the sun or rain symbol that it chooses to show for today's weather. That's right, Yeti's the app of weather app. It's our GDP's destiny. You canceled your Super Saturday spending splurge because of the big rain drop on today's weather. Okay, but pause to paw jack, because there's a problem here. False forecast. Because weather apps turn the complex world of meteorology into one single emoji every day. And it's often frustratingly wrong, and we got the reasons why.

Starting point is 00:02:11 We've all been there. The app only shows rain, so you cancel the canoe. And you call off the tea time. You reschedule the rock climb. Yeah, but then, Jack, it's sunny, and all those businesses missed out on your money. It's not just you. Weather apps overstate the likelihood of rain almost every time. It's a real phenomenon, besties, and it's called wet. Bias. Wet bias. It turns out the issue isn't the temperature, though, it's the translation. Get this, because 50% chance of rain doesn't mean 50% of the day is rain. It means there's a 50% chance that one spot in your region gets 0.01 inches of rain. That's the technical definition of 50%

Starting point is 00:02:46 chance of rain. Yes, like, you could get 0.01 inch of rain for one minute in just one part of town. And it's sunny for the rest of us for the whole day. But the weather app will say it's raining right now. So you postponed the surprise point. party picnic. And that besties is wet bias and it is raining on your weekend plans literally. And it's messing with our economy's mojo figuratively. So besties, before you delay that outdoor dinner this weekend, double check the rain data. And listen to your local weather woman. Tom Capizino here with WDVC 5. We got a chance of high pressure and definitely low pressure. I'm seeing three fantastic stories on the horizon, Jack. Why don't we hit him right now? Let's take

Starting point is 00:03:24 it into the commercial break. Let's hit the channel. 15 years before this song Two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm They had an idea that caused a cultural storm It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm Jack Nick, that's it I don't even think they need to practice 50% that's a fat tip

Starting point is 00:03:41 T-boy City on your at list If you know you know because we're ready to go We can't wait no more so just start the show Start the show First a quick word from our sponsor For our first story, Jersey Mikes just pulled off the biggest restaurant IPO in 15 years. Because when the market's only serving AI, an Italian cold cut combo with oil and vinegar sounds really good, doesn't it, Nick? Especially if it's heated. If you know, you know, we'll get to that in a sec.

Starting point is 00:04:22 In the meantime, Jack, let's kick it off with the hero stat about Jersey Mikes. All right, here we go. Jersey Mikes, nothing to do with a guy named Mike. Jersey Mikes has everything to do with a 17-year-old boy named B. Peter Cancrow, who took out a $125,000 loan from his high school football coach. Well, he did buy Jersey mics from one guy named Mike. Hold the hoagies. On Thursday, Jersey mics raised a billion dollars in the second largest IPO in restaurant history, trailing only McDonald's largest franchise, which IPOed in 2011. Now, Besties, as loyal listeners to the show, you know that, because we covered the IPO paperwork when it first came out last month. We've never had IPO paperwork

Starting point is 00:04:59 with the word vinegar in it more times. They said vinegar seven times. Oh, and they listed Ozempic as a business risk. We told you last month how the most delicious restaurant investment opportunity right now is to open your own Jersey Mike shop. And why is that, Jack? Because we dove into the numbers, T-Boy style. The average startup cost of a Jersey Mike's location is $515,000. And that investment is paid back in operating profits in less than three years.

Starting point is 00:05:22 The cost of opening at Jersey Mike's is one half of a Taco Bell, one half of a burger king 70% less than a Ronald McDonald's. But Jersey Mikes is driving three times more revenue per location than Subway is despite having one-tenth the number of locations. And now Jersey Mike's plans to expand to 15,000 restaurants from 3,300 at Gabagool. Pretty sure Joey Triviani just subscribed to the pod, Nick. But the last time we covered Jersey Mikes, we told you about the founder to P.E. to IPO playbook. Two years ago, Jersey Mike sold to Blackstone Private Equity for $8 billion bucks.

Starting point is 00:05:54 The goal was to IPO for high evaluation somewhere down the line. Along the way, private equity streamlined the business. How did they do it, Jack? They cut capacola costs and juice the profits. Blackstone got rid of the private jet that Jersey Mike's owned and started bulk buying banana peppers instead. But in our research, we discovered two menu items where this private equity firm did the opposite of what seems to be efficient. Here's the new news, yetis. There are two dishes where private equity actually added complexity, and it looks like it paid off. First, by adding salads.

Starting point is 00:06:22 Fresh lettuce and vegetables is not an easy business, just asks sweet green. Yeah, sweet green stocks down 90% in the last two years. Now, Jersey Mike's didn't add that kind of salad, but the first. They did add chicken salad to the menu to broaden the customer base. As they put it, and it worked. The second item they interestingly added was growing the griddle. They launched hot Italian subs in January, and it already makes up 3% of the orders. And our best is he doing a cold sandwich is easier than hot, but private equity saw an opportunity in the complexity.

Starting point is 00:06:50 Because hot subs are priced 20% higher than cold subs, according to Jersey Mikes. So the heat basically turns a regular Sammy into a profit puppy. Now, Jersey Mikes has done hot sandwiches forever, but we've been. bet this PE management keeps pushing the cold cuts to get hot because it's more profitable. Just follow the money, besties, though guac, it's always extra. But most of the orders on Thursday were for Jersey Mike's stock. Yeah, not for the sandwiches. According to Bloomberg, shares were 10 times oversubscribed on IPO day.

Starting point is 00:07:17 It's a lot of demand, which leads to our big takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies tossing vinegar over Jersey mics? Artificial Intelligence can't bake bread. Yeties, it is the year of the AI IPO. SpaceX dated in June. Anthropics coming up in the fall. Open AI, they're coming soon after that. And yet 10 people wanted to buy a Jersey mic stock for every one share available. Jack, this is the second biggest IPO in restaurant history. They raised a billion bucks yesterday. This reminds us of the quote we mentioned yesterday about Steve Jobs comparing tech to wine. Yeah, remember this one? Steve Jobs said that Dom Perignon champagne would outlast the iPhone.

Starting point is 00:07:57 The iPhone, cutting-edge engineered technology, but champagne is timeless. So besties, while AI may or may not be a bubble, we are certain that sandwiches are not a bubble. The sandwich was invented in 1762, and it's been eaten non-stop for 264 years. Can't stop that, Atkins, can't stop that. Artificial Intelligence can't bake bread. That's why there's appetite for Jersey Mike's stock. For our second story, why is gas still four bucks a gallon, despite the war in Iran only getting work? The answer is China.

Starting point is 00:08:30 China now controls the price of oil because it's dopec. Do peck. It's the OPEC of demand. Yetis, for those keeping score, last couple of weeks, two new countries and two new bodies of water became entangled in the war in Iran. First, it was Iran-backed Houthi rebels, shooting at ships in the Red Sea. The Red Sea. It was the alternative route that ships were taken to avoid the straight-hour moose. But then on Thursday, Egypt reported that its ships got shot in the Mediterranean Sea.

Starting point is 00:08:57 And on the same day, Saudi Arabia joined the United States in retaliating against Iran's attacks. Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea. The war in Iran is bigger than ever right now. So, 21 weeks into this escalating war, Bessies, you would think that oil prices would be at ATH all-time highs. You'd think the gas station by you is selling unobtainium unleaded for six bucks a gallon. Well, but the answer is nope. Gas, it ain't six bucks. Not even five bucks. It's actually like four bucks and 10 cents right now. According to AAA, the average national price of gas is $4.10 a gallon. That's up 31% since last year, but it's not nearly as bad as anyone expected. And that phenomenon

Starting point is 00:09:38 has baffled Wall Street. That phenomenon has delighted Wall Street. Because high oil prices are like a tax on the economy. Oil seeps into everything. And high oil prices worse in the inflation situation, which could push interest rates higher too. Another for Todd a fiasco coming. So yet these oil prices are causing pain in this economy. but to a way lower degree than we all feared. But now here's the news we finally know why. It's China, China. It's the biggest oil consumer in the world, by far.

Starting point is 00:10:07 Biggest importer of oil in the world, by far. How does China build entire cities and bridges overnight like it's no big deal? Jack, you've got to grease all that construction trucks with some oil, right? But the moment the war in Iran started, China snapped into an oil diet, consuming way less. China has reduced its daily oil imports by 40%. they basically lost 40% of their oil weight. They've gone from importing 13 million barrels of oil per day to just 7 million in just a few months.

Starting point is 00:10:33 It's like China's on oily OZempic, and how are they pulling it off, Jack? They're doing it first by tapping into their oil reserves, second, by using electric vehicles instead of gas-powered cars, and third, by leveraging their world-leading renewable energy. Now, Basties, we all assumed that demand for oil was inelastic, as economists would put it. It's like the Titanic.

Starting point is 00:10:52 It takes a long time to slow or change the direction of your oil. oil consumption. But it turns out China's got incredible agility and discipline when it comes to an oil diet. They change their national energy policy quicker than an F1 pit stop, Nick. We should point out, it's not totally clear why China is doing this exactly. Yeah, we're not in President Xi's geopolitical situation. Yeah, all we know is that what she wants, she gets. But China's oil diet has effectively bailed out the whole world from higher fuel and energy prices. It's a Chinese oil ozempic. The world has avoided an oil shortage because China volunteered to devour way less. Leaving way more oil for the rest of us. It's like, thank you, China,

Starting point is 00:11:31 but I'm also wondering why you're doing this China, and I fear that you have evil genius ulterior motives that's going to come back to bite us, China. Like your aunt on Ozepic at the dinner table, you don't totally know what's going on. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in oil. China is the OPEC of oil demand. It's dopec. It's dopec. Yet he's OPEC is the 66-year-old cartel of authoritarian countries that dictates how much we all pay for gasoline. If OPEC wants oil prices to rise, they simply cut supply. If they want oil prices to fall, they simply increase supply. But this is what we find fascinating.

Starting point is 00:12:07 China has showed that they can control the price of oil, too, not by changing supply, but by changing demand. That is a new grip of power that China has on the global economy that's been previously unknown to us. I mean, Jack, imagine if China wanted oil prices to rise maybe to inflict pain on the United States. They're the only country big enough that has the resources to buy so much oil that they could increase total demand and jack up prices. To quote Batman Jack, that is power you can't buy. The Iran War and the lack of high oil prices right now teaches us something new about the world. That China is the OPEC of oil demand. China is DoPEC.

Starting point is 00:12:45 Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, one store on Nantucket just banned influencers while they're rival store embraced influencers. A tiny island drama has sparked a national social media debate. Oh boy. And this reveals a mistake that you can use to your advantage. Oh, basties, it is a sign of the times, literally. Downtown Nantucket, the most popular street corner on the fanciest island in New England. There's a nautical home shop called Four Winds. How would you picture this exactly, Jack? It's like your local home goods, Nick, but with prices 20 times higher. Yeah, that brascots, it's going to cost more than the actual condo.

Starting point is 00:13:26 has ship antiques. It's got whalebone carvings, and there's definitely no live-lap-love signs. No, there are not. But that store does have a big hand-painted wooden sign with two words and two words only on it. No influencers. It's actually a quarterboard, which is the three-foot sign you put on the back of your boat to display the boat's name. So why is a store owner putting up a sign banning influencers from the store? Well, here's what they told the New York Times. I'm tired of my store being used as someone's background for an Instagram video. Basically, Nantuckets become too filled with one-day tourists stopping traffic for a monster. a pick in the middle of a cobblestone street. Influencers, the shop owner said, take photos, but they don't buy anything. Hence the new sign, no influencers. We find this highly ironic. The

Starting point is 00:14:07 owner clearly doesn't understand what an influencer is trying to do. You gotta influence others to buy things. That's the influencer biz model. It's not about you buying something. You're influencing others. And that Instagram video is literally a free ad for the store. So yeah, there's a lot of hate coming at the store owner. But pause the pod yet is because that anti-influencer sign, it has touched a cultural nerve from sea to shining sea. Well, actually, just the Northeast elite publications. New York Times, Wall Street Journal, People magazine, and New York Magazine. Suddenly out of nowhere, it's getting all the attention.

Starting point is 00:14:38 But here's a plot twist. Another shop across town did the opposite. They've begun embracing influencers. We're talking about Dairy Boy, the venture-backed clothing brand trying to become the sexy LLB. Founded five years ago by Paige Lawrence, who herself was an influencer before becoming a store owner. And Jack, the first thing this influencer did when she saw this anti-influencer sign, she posted a picture of it and then added a quarterboard sign of her own in her dairy boy shop, which has also two words on it.

Starting point is 00:15:06 Everyone welcome. Her argument that being an anti-influencer is basically being anti-female. Because most influencers are women. So had it all up that season, we got one shop saying influencers are not welcome because they don't contribute to the island. But another shop calls that wrong. She welcomes influencers and thinks that they do help the economy. And on top of all of this, it's right after we just did a story. this week on the rise of minfluencers.

Starting point is 00:15:28 Anybody can influence, even if you've got only 500 followers. Almost half of social media budgets are going to people with under 20,000 followers like your brother Timmy who's now promoting Sarajevay on the weekends. Quick side note, Nick and I did a lot of work prepping the pod last week on Nantucket at Kettlebar Cafe. And we saw this firsthand. Just about every other customer who walked into the store pulled out their phone first to record a video as they walked into the shop.

Starting point is 00:15:52 So like, there's very much. An invasion of influencers on the island. And full disclosure, while Jack and I were enjoying those double-digit lattes, we may have recorded a couple of videos of ourselves promoting the show. Four wins would hate it if we walked into their store. But still, Yeti, some small sign drama on the tiny aisle of Nantucket is now a nationwide debate. Our influencers cringe, or are they chiching? Either way, both shops are getting more visitors than ever, which leads to our takeaway?

Starting point is 00:16:19 So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies run in any kind of business? If you want more people to come, tell them not to come. It's the Barbara Streisand effect. You see, Eddie's, the more you try to hide or censor something, the more attention it's just going to get. Like with Barbara Streisand in 2003. Oh, boy. She sued a photographer who had a photo of her Malbu home on a website trying to solve

Starting point is 00:16:40 coastal erosion in California. Now, before the lawsuit, only six people had downloaded that picture of her house on the website. But after the lawsuit drew attention to it, 400,000 people did. See what happened here, besties? her attempt to suppress the photo backfired. And now it's been called the Barberous Drysand Effect ever since. So if you've got a PR debacle that you don't want people talking about, don't try to hide that PR debacle.

Starting point is 00:17:03 It will make it worse. Okay, but on the flip side, we're thinking if you do have a clever new product, maybe you get more attention by poorly hiding it. By putting up a no influencer sign, you're obviously going to attract more influencers to your shop. Yes. Just like suing someone to suppress a photo nobody knew about is going to attract attention to that photo, not divert it.

Starting point is 00:17:22 The Nantucket influencer ban that totally backfired and became a fake man, real ban? It's the Barbara Streisand effect in 2026. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday? Jersey Mike Stock traded flat yesterday after raising a billion dollars in their IPO day. Because there will always be demand for sandwiches. AI can't bake bread and it can't spread mail. For our second story, the war in Iran is escalating by the day. But 21 weeks in, oil prices are pretty chill.

Starting point is 00:17:50 Because China cut oil demand 40% on an oil diet. China is Dopec, the OPEC for demand. And our third and final story is Nantucket. One store is banning influencers, the other is embracing them. But both are getting more influencers because of the Barbara Streisand effect. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Adidas just scored the definition of an own goal with its World Cup earnings report.

Starting point is 00:18:14 Okay, last quarter, Adidas saw record revenue. because it sold four times more jerseys and two times more balls than the previous World Cup. Remember, Argentina and Spain were Adidas' teams both in the World Cup final. But Adidas spent so much money marketing the World Cup that their profits got crushed. And the stock just fell 12% on worried it's winning the World Cup, but losing the earnings. Second, remember all the hate about Ferrari's new electric vehicle? Their first electric vehicle? It got awkward out there.

Starting point is 00:18:41 A lot of hateful hot takes on the Luce. But Ferrari is now officially sold out of that first electric car. They nailed their sales targets in under two months. We kind of called this in our takeaway. We said if you think this is ugly, it's because you're not the target customer. And the CEO just came out and said he wouldn't change anything about the polarizing Luce car. And finally, it's not just Jersey Mikes who went public yesterday. Reformation, the sustainable clothing brand did too.

Starting point is 00:19:04 Our big question, when we last covered Reformation and it's 100 gene stores, what was it, Jack? Will Reformation end up like Patagonia or Albers? They both tried to do sustainability. Now, so far, the stock is flat. But if you want us to cover this Reformation IPO, comment crop top in the comments on Spotify right now. We're looking out for it. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Marcus all the way over in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Starting point is 00:19:27 Get this. On July 23rd, it was the busiest travel day in world history. Not sure if you noticed the TSA lines that day, but yeah, busiest travel day in the history of humankind. Last Thursday, there were 153,400,000. flights that took off across the world. Which means more humans were on Earth, but not on land than ever in human history. I think I had something to do with the Odyssey, something to do with the World Cup ending, and something to do with you and me being on Antarctica.

Starting point is 00:19:57 Odysseus was really, I mean, it took him a while again home, Jack. It took him a long time. It took him like 20 years, right? I know. I know. He's still not back. Yeties, you look fantastic today. Jack, you are glowing over there.

Starting point is 00:20:10 Hey, what's the weather app saying right now? What are we got? What's saying like a raindrop and a side? sunshine. It's like a 70% chance of 1% of rain, right? What's going on exactly? I'm canceling my plans. It's over. It's over. Cancel everything after the pod. Besties, if you haven't yet, buy tickets to our live show. The next one's in San Francisco, and we can't wait to see you there. September 23rd at the Palace of Fine Arts. We'll see you there.

Starting point is 00:20:31 Tickets in the episode description or at T-boypod.com. If you know, you know. And before we go, a happy birthday to Legendary Yeti, Amal Abu al-Saoud. She has a birthday and a promotion to Chief of Staff down in Texas. And happy birthday to Ryan Benson, who's having a quarter-life crisis in Portland, Oregon. Oh, you'll get through that, Ryan. Rich Roll and Euclid, Ohio is the ultimate H-Y-H-T-B-O-Ire and the best birthday yet. Happy 30th birthday to Chase in Cleveland, Ohio. And Sammy C. He's got a birthday in Brooklyn, but a party in Manhattan.

Starting point is 00:21:05 Congratulations. Happy birthday to Natalie Harris McRow in Connecticut. Marilyn Barmore has got a 75th birthday in Clearwater, Florida. Congratulations. Happy five-year anniversary to Jose and Rebecca Mateo in Richmond. And Siniad Spect, congrats on the military promotion in San Diego. Antonio, and thanks for your service. Oh, and thanks for being a Yeti since the Snacks era. Congratulations to Nira Kar Shrethia, who moved in six months ago to a new country, now

Starting point is 00:21:27 officially lived in three nationalities. And Javier Sanchez and Hayward, California, thank you for referring Evelyn to the show and turning her into a Yeti. And to anyone else celebrating something today, making a T-boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own one share of SpaceX, and Nick owns more than one.

The Best One Yet - 🥪 “AI Can’t Bake Bread” — Jersey Mike’s IPO. OPEC for Demand. Nantucket’s Influencer Drama. +Weather’s “Wet Bias”

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