The Best One Yet - 🤳 “Banuary” — Digital Detox Resolutions. Oil’s Chevron-zuela. Sprinkles’ last cupcake. +Dog Ozempic

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Nick. This is Jack. Welcome back to the funnest place in finance. It is Tuesday, January 6th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. If you want to be the most interesting person in the room this year, then you're in the right place. Yeties, we got your three perfect mix of business, econ, and finance stories sprinkled with pop culture virality. Every episode is the best one yet.

Starting point is 00:00:24 Nick, you ready for today's pod? Oh, Jack, what do we got on today's T-boy? For our first story, it's Chevron. Zweila. You already know that the U.S. military captured Venezuela's president over the weekend. So Jack and I are looking at the situation from a CEO's perspective. What is an oil executive's next move? For our second story, Sprinkles Cumpcakes, the inventor of the cupcake ATM suddenly shut down on New Year's Eve. Sprinkles cupcakes reveals how private equity botched the secret recipe. And our third and final story is the most popular New Year's resolution this year, the digital detox.

Starting point is 00:00:59 Or as Jack and I call it, social media banuary. But we think this one's going to last a lot longer than one month. But yet is, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. I mean, what a mix of stories? Is there a better mix, Jack? There is not. But Nick, you already know about OZempic. It's popular with all kinds of people.

Starting point is 00:01:18 But what you may not know is OZempic for pets. Because the next frontier for big pharma is weight loss drugs for dogs. That's right. We're talking OZempic for cats. Or Wagovi for Wymer honors. Or GLP for puppies and kitties. Here's the context. 60% of America's dogs are unfortunately overweight or obese.

Starting point is 00:01:39 Or Jack, as your veterinarian texted me the other day, your pooch, a little too much padding. It's so kind that that's how he describes reverse physique right now. I love that context he sprinkled on. So, Novo Nordisk is going into the doghouse to get their stock out of the doghouse. Apparently getting a poodle in shape for pool season? Yeah, that could be their next profit. puppy. All right, so O-Zempe for dogs is a thing. But why stop at just cats and dogs? I mean, Jack

Starting point is 00:02:04 and I were brainstorming this. How about hamsters? They're a little husky, aren't they, man? That turtle can look a little tubby now and then. Jack, I once had a pet iguana that ate 43 crickets in a day. I still can't believe you had an iguana in New York City. I know. Scaly-Will, really let himself go. But yet, he's, when it comes to spending, this story proves it. Puppie. P-U-P-P-Y. People ultimately prioritize pets. Yeah, they do. Let's hit our three stores. Hold Still River this long. Take a second.

Starting point is 00:02:34 Fifteen years before this song. Two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. That's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list.

Starting point is 00:02:52 If you know, you know, because we're rare to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our special. For our first story, it's Chevron's Whale. Our military campaign in Venezuela comes down to one word, oil. When it comes to oil, everyone's talking about Chevron right now. But we think the much more interesting question is ExxonMobil. Now, yeties, let's start by sprinkling on some context.

Starting point is 00:03:30 The United States has had an arrest warrant out for Nicholas Maduro for alleged crimes, including drug trafficking, for years. But we have arrest warrants out for lots of alleged criminals all over the world, don't we, Nick? Yes, we do, but it is only in Venezuela that the suspect governs the largest oil reserve in the world. That's right. Venezuela has more oil than any country in the entire world. It's basically the Azca ban of regular unleaded. You know that scene in Willy Wonka with the chocolate river? Basically like the coastline of Venezuela, but with oil. Except underground. And that's why at the president's press conference on Saturday, his administration mentioned the word oil 25 times. That's more than they said the word drug, crime, narco,

Starting point is 00:04:09 or trafficking combined. The president also said billions of dollars six times in the press conference on Saturday, and he explicitly called on U.S. oil companies to enter Venezuela, redevelop their oil industry, and make money that will benefit both the Venezuelan and the American people. To reference, Willie Walk again, basically a golden ticket opportunity. But Jack, let us pull up to the pump and sprinkle on some crude context here, please. Because our American history with Venezuelan oil actually goes back one full story. century. Get this, besties, Venezuela is one and a half times bigger than the state of Texas,

Starting point is 00:04:44 but it has more oil under it than any other country on Earth. Everyone in OPEC is jealous of Venezuela. So naturally, ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, most of the world's big oil companies began drilling in Venezuela as long as 100 years ago. In fact, during World War II, Venezuela actually became the largest exporter of oil on Earth. It was the silent ally of the allied powers. But starting in 1976, Venezuela began nationalizing their oil industry. And what did that look like exactly, Jack? It basically means the government took control of all the private oil rigs by force. Basically, in I am the captain now situation, they forced American oil companies to become minority partners with Venezuela's government-owned oil companies. But only one U.S. oil company

Starting point is 00:05:30 accepted that offer. It was Chevron. Chevron. So here is the question today. Did Venezuela steal our oil? as President Trump said over the weekend. Well, Venezuela's constitution says that any oil under Venezuelan soil belongs to Venezuela. But oil companies are saying, uh, our contracts were broken. Yeah, that is stealing our oil. And you took our oil drilling equipment against our will. So it feels like stealing to ExxonMobil. And that is why American oil companies took Venezuela to international court years ago.

Starting point is 00:06:03 ExxonMobil and other oil companies actually won that arbitration case. but Venezuela hasn't paid the $14 billion plus that they owe U.S. oil companies for seizing all those oil rigs. Instead of pressing the chiching button right now, Jack, we can just fast forward to today, because this week those oil facilities are being denationalized or privatized again. And President Trump wants America's big oil companies to book one-way tickets to Caracas and start drill-baby drill down there. And that is why you saw Chevron stock jump 6% yesterday, and oil refining and oil field companies, they rose even more. They're pumped to be able to pump up down in Venezuela again. Which leads to our big question today.

Starting point is 00:06:43 If you are in the seat of an oil CEO, what is your next move? Because it's not as easy as you expect. But it is our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in the oil industry? The risks of investing in Venezuela right now massively outweigh the rewards. And here's the thing about Venezuela taking over their oil industry. They actually did a terrible job of it. job. Venezuela's government actually lost 80% of their own oil production when they were running the thing.

Starting point is 00:07:11 20 years ago, they produced six times more oil than they do today. Venezuela's oil industry is a mess of looted pipes, abandoned rigs. It's been mismanaged. It's corrupt. It's not a good scene. Get this. Experts say it cost 100 billion bucks to fix Venice well as oil industry. And that would take years to do. So if you're the CEO of ExxonMobil, would you approve a $10 billion investment plan to develop Venezuela's oil right now? Well, Jack, President Trump says American companies that invest in Venezuela will be rewarded, but the political risk is huge. The political risk, I mean, this is an already unstable country that now has a power vacuum. Who's in charge? And power vacuums, they suck. It's unclear who's in charge of Venezuela. The U.S. says we're running the

Starting point is 00:07:56 country, but so does Venezuela's socialist vice president, who recently became president. The one certainty in Venezuela right now is that there is oil, but the cost, the timeline, the geopolitics, all of that is still uncertain. Political risk is basically, is there rule of law, and will my profits remain my profits? In Venezuela, that's a huge question. Sebasti's added all up, and Trump is asking Exxon to invest in Venezuela.

Starting point is 00:08:20 But because of the political risk, we think they won't. For our second story, sprinkles cupcakes. Famous for inventing the cupcake ATM suddenly shut down on New Year's Eve, every store closed without warning. Did you pause in that headline to compose yourself because you're so sad about this headline? Too soon, Jack. Nick's a huge fan of cupcakes yeties, and this one hits him personally. But Sprinkles Cupcakes isn't just a victim of fads in food.

Starting point is 00:08:49 It's also a victim of finance, too. Yeties, forget SoulCycle Greek yogurt or a dozen different direct-to-consumer mattress brands advertising on the subway. No product defined 2010 millennial living, like the cupcake craze. A decade ago, you couldn't walk your car. cockapoo past Carnegie Hill without in a cupcake shop or two. They were everywhere. Even Wall Street got hooked. I didn't realize this. But in 2011, crumbs, the cookie cup. You mean cupcake? Yes, I mean the cupcake company. They went public on Wall Street. It was a $66 million pure play buttercream IPO. But the inventor of the gourmet cupcake shock was actually Los

Starting point is 00:09:29 Angeles-based Sprinkles. Sprinkles was founded by an ex-investment banker who traded out her spreadsheets for baking sheets in 2005. Candice Nelson, and she positioned her cupcakes as a premium product, basically Louis Vuitton of the good stuff. Or I was going to say the shake shack of cupcakes. Because a shake shack burger, it's expensive, but it's delicious, just like a Sprinkles cupcake. One red velvet cupcake from Sprinkles, that would set you back six bucks right now.

Starting point is 00:09:55 And at its peak, Sprinkles had 50 cupcake shop locations, plus 25 more standalone cupcake ATMs. I'm sorry, that sounds like a profit puppy, Jack. Please explain what is happening there. Sprinkles did not invent the cupcake, but they did invent the cupcake ATM. What we are saying is that Sprinkles's greatest innovation was not the cupcake itself, but in the way you purchase the product. Here's the story. When the CEO, Candice Nelson, became pregnant.

Starting point is 00:10:25 She had late-night food cravings, as pregnant women do. And sometimes their husbands. True. But she couldn't get those baked goods she craved at midnight. So in 2012, Sprinkles invents the 24-7 ATM for cupcakes at Beverly Hills, holding 800 cakes baked daily. And it became the highest grossing part of their business. Yeah, the labor costs were next to nothing,

Starting point is 00:10:45 and Magnolia wouldn't dare pulsed on like that. Plus, they expanded the purchase range. Like, forget the late-night burrito after the bar. Jack, head up to 58th Street. We could mac on some coconut cupcakes. I can tell you're saying that from experience, Nick. Guilty is charged, but the cupcake ATM led to a huge publicity and ultimately an acquisition of the Sprinkles brand.

Starting point is 00:11:04 Candice sold her company to private equity later the same year that they launched those ATMs. But here's the news. 13 years later, just last week, Sprinkles suddenly shut down on New Year's Eve. The founder posted a TikTok about how sad she was, employees are now without jobs, and fans like Nick are going to have to go to Whole Foods to get their cupcake or something. It's why we had to cover this story. Now, partially besties is Jack and I analyzed the situation.

Starting point is 00:11:28 This is because of the three Fs of Fads that we've worn. you about. Fashion, fitness, and food. Those are the three industries most driven by fats. The trends that end. And the trend in sweets right now? It's not cupcakes. It's coffee. Sugary lattes are the top sellers at Starbucks and Dutch bros, and dirty soda sales are hitting all-time highs right now. Cupcake demand? It's also been replaced by cookie demand. Crumble is the new sprinkles. Demand for sweets didn't disappear. It pivoted. But besties, there are two other letters to blame for sprinkles collapse, and those two letters are peasers. and E. So, Jack, can you please lick the takeaway. I'm sorry, what's the takeaway for our buddies

Starting point is 00:12:07 over at Sprinkles? Private equity only works when it follows its own recipe. Yeah, it is. There are a lot of angry cupcake consumers out there right now blaming the private equity firm for Sprinkles's demise. Rightfully so, but we should point out, P.E. firms, they all have the same goal. Acquire a struggling business, cut costs and improve the marketing so that they can boost profits and sell the business seven to ten years later for a huge profit. In our financial experience, there is also a recipe. Private equity applies. They find industries with sustainable and predictable economics. Like car washes. PE firms love car wash chains right now. Because car wash chains have sustainable and predictable economics. But cupcakes don't. No, cupcakes, think about it. It's a one-off occasion

Starting point is 00:12:53 based treat, not a repeat, reliable, dependable purchase. They don't fit this recipe, and the baking industry, it's not predictable. Like we said, fads drive food. So the sprinkles shutdown, it's not just a story about a cupcake craze that became a cupcake crash. No, no, no, no, no. It is also about how private equity only works when it sticks with its own recipe. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story. The most popular New Year's resolution this year? It's not dry January. It's social media banuary. We think 2026 is a good. tipping point against social media, and the co-founders of Twitter and Pinterest are actually betting on it. All right, now, Jack, in order for us to tell this story, you want to start with

Starting point is 00:13:39 a full disclosure. This is Jack, and I have proudly found a way to reduce my social media scrolling. What is it? What is it? Open up your iPhone, go into the settings and search gray scale. Basically make your phone black and white so that the real world, compared to your phone, is better. You can still scroll on Instagram if you want, but the real world is more beautiful than anything on your phone. I thought you were going to say like you only go on Instagram doing a wall squat. So like you can never scroll for more than two minutes. That's an aggressive strategy that I like as well. Black and white gray scale. Jack, another idea I had the other day was every time you open a social media app, you have to move $10 from your checking account to your savings account. I like that.

Starting point is 00:14:18 There's other ones. I wish there was an app that made me just wait five seconds before clicking the Instagram app. Because I bet in those five seconds I'd be like, I shouldn't be doing this. And I'd shut it down. You're in anyagram one. I could see that work. But besties for the rest of us. we haven't reduced our social media consumption, have we? Let's be honest. Yeah. And yet, nobody in the world is saying, I should use more TikTok this year. I need an extra hit of Instagram this year. They're saying the opposite, which leads to this hero stat. A survey by Opel found that 33% of Americans are trying to reduce screen time this year, which is larger than the 28% of Americans who want to lose weight this year. Besties, sit down, stand up, and sit back down again. More people

Starting point is 00:14:56 want to lose clickbait than lose body weight. We've never seen losing weight not be the top New Year's resolution, but this year it's not. Dry January is now digital dry January. Digital detox is the new Botox. But we got to say, to all those trying to digital detox this year, good luck. Yeah. Because the smartest minds in Silicon Valley have made social media incredibly addictive. Which leads to the wild line from Bizstone and Evan Sharp, the co-founders of Twitter and Pinterest. They said this week that social media apps, including the ones that they co-founded, have rot,

Starting point is 00:15:28 and I quote, terrible devastation of the human mind and heart over the last 15 years. Which is why Biz Stone and Evan Sharp just launched Tangle, an anti-social media app. App. Right. The Twitter and Pinterest GoFounders already raised $29 million for their San Francisco-based tech company. Now, so far, Tangle is invite only. Cough, cough, cough, still waiting on that one. But it is focused as an app on intention.

Starting point is 00:15:55 As in intentional living. Like a digital yoga. guru intention kind of a thing. As in, did you intend to sit on the toilet for the last 15 minute swiping? I don't think you did intend. Because this app is going to send you daily push notifications asking, what's your intention today? And it will let you designate friends who can digitally cheer you on as you pursue your life of intentionality. I got to pause the pod for a sec, jack. So ironically, this is an app to get you off other apps. And yet it has a social element. so it's a social media app opposed to social media apps.

Starting point is 00:16:29 So I guess the business analogy we would use here is like, this is the vape to cigarettes but for social media. Or the nicotine patches. There's nicotine in there, but it helps you get off the worst thing. The worst version of nicotine. Now, Basties, we have seen apps like this before. You have to, but none of them have worked. Sadly, despite a valiant effort, be real, is no more.

Starting point is 00:16:51 So in our opinion, the only way to fix our social media addiction is the same way we fixed our cigarette addiction. With government policy. Which leads to our takeaway. Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in social media? It's a prediction, actually. Prepare for social media banuary, but all year long and worldwide. Yeties, as Jack and I study trends across countries over the last year,

Starting point is 00:17:14 we expect social media bans to happen worldwide throughout 2026. This past fall, Australia became the first country to ban social media for teens. In 2025, school district, across America experimented with phone bans largely to success. Because the data is clear. Especially for teens, reducing social media use reduces depression, reduces anxiety, and reduces insomnia. Based on those data points, we think the floodgates are now open. Action is being taken worldwide to regulate social media for the first time. In countries, in U.S. states, maybe even by the U.S. federal government, we will see regulation for social media like we finally saw regulation for cigarettes.

Starting point is 00:17:53 Besties, it's not just a social media banuary. We think social media regulation is going to happen across the world all year long. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for today's pod? Based on Saturday's press conference, it appears our aims in Venezuela are all about oil. So should Exxon invest billions in Venezuela? Because of the political risk ROI, we think they won't. For our second story, Sprinkles Cupcakes is sadly no more. It shut down last week as Sweet Tooth pivoted from cupcakes.

Starting point is 00:18:25 to coffee and cookies. Also, because a chain of cupcake shops just ain't in the P.E. recipe book. And our third and final story is the digital detox. That's the New Year's resolution of the year, even more than physical health goals. Call it social media banuary.

Starting point is 00:18:41 Our prediction, regulation, is finally coming to your feeds. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, congratulations to Warren Buffett on your first week of retirement. Warren, legendary, Daddy, we see you listening, is no longer the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

Starting point is 00:18:58 The legendary investor stepped down officially on December 31st. But Nick, in his 60 years running Berkshire, stock in his company rose 6,100,000%. Not too shabby. Besties, this 95-year-old threw all his weight behind the new CEO, Greg Abel, who probably threw him a nice cupcake party. Second, insider trading happened again on Polly Market in a big way, this time for the Nicholas Maduro arrest. Get this. Just before the U.S. military seized Venezuela's president, someone made bets on

Starting point is 00:19:30 Polymarket that that would actually happen, making $400,000 in profit in one single day. The prediction sites actually encourage insider trading, which are not illegal because we don't have laws about prediction markets yet. Yeah, it's unfair to hurts the integrity of the predictions markets, but according to Polymarket and others, it gets the truth out quicker, even if it's an insider advantage. And finally, get this, $400,000 worth of lobster has been stolen. Not just any lobster, Costco lobster. Yeah, this is a big lobsters, too.

Starting point is 00:20:03 According to Massachusetts police, thieves dressed up as a legitimate truck company and then signed and just took the lobbies away. But then instead of delivering it to Costco in Illinois, they disappeared. They either sold them on the black market or are eating a whole bunch of lobster right now. Yeah, you may have a dirty lobster role right now. Oh, and just like that heist movie, The Town, it all happened. Just as I'm Boston. Now, time for the best fact yet to kick off the year.

Starting point is 00:20:29 This one from Dr. Harold Hahn from lovely Berkeley, California. Push and pled. Hello, Yadis. This is Harold. I want to share a trend that's happening around us right now. With alcohol consumption going down, cannabis-infused beverages are entering the mainstream market. For example, in Minnesota, within two years of this product being available,

Starting point is 00:20:49 it has accounted for over 15% of the 2%. total alcohol sales. And experts say this category is the fastest growing category in beverage ever. And you can find those products in states like Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama in alcohol stores. So give a try. Thank you. I didn't tell you this, Jack, when I went to a holiday party in Marin, and I drank like two of these these incredible sparkling beverages there, and then I found out afterwards they were canned cannabis beverage. I had no idea. I know. And you're such a lightweight. How'd you handle it? It's a self-drive to Tesla home.

Starting point is 00:21:23 Yeties, you look fantastic for T-Boy Tuesday. And if you have got the best fact yet, just like Dr. Hahn graciously sent us, we love getting your voicemails. We love getting them on the pod. We have a simple form to fill out. There's a link in the episode description. We want your voice on the pod. Send us your best fact yet.

Starting point is 00:21:40 Also, new year, new you. If you want to get a shout out on the pod, birthday, anniversary, bar mitzvah, we love getting those in. And Jack, how do you get those on the show? Same thing. A link in the episode description to a form. We keep it simple for you. time, Jack and I will see you, as always, right here on tomorrow's show.

Starting point is 00:21:57 Before we go, a shout out to Yeti's Lindsay Tillengast and Damien Zapata, who just got engaged in Denver, Colorado. They debriefed T-boy episodes every night, never missed a T-boy, but right now, they've got the greatest ring ever on that finger. And happy fifth anniversary to Logan and Haley, who also just got engaged. Plus, Logan just got a promotion, guys, send us the ring picks. We're so pumped for you. Happy birthday to Ubbyshake in Boston, Massachusetts, who introduced.

Starting point is 00:22:28 the show to his daughter, they're both longtime Yetis. And Monty Dan's turning 60 years old in Highlands Ranch, Colorado. Happy birthday, Monty. Happy birthday to Matt DeVries from Crown Point, Indiana, who had baby number two this year. Congratulations. And a happy birthday to Bobby Trivet from lovely Manassas, Virginia, celebrating the best one yet. And to anyone else who's celebrating something today,

Starting point is 00:22:48 make it a tee boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack, I own stock of Berkshire, Hathaway, and Nicoln Stocka Shake Shack.

The Best One Yet - 🤳 “Banuary” — Digital Detox Resolutions. Oil’s Chevron-zuela. Sprinkles’ last cupcake. +Dog Ozempic

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