The Best One Yet - 🛍️ “Black-vember” — Why Black Friday’s all month. McRib’s strategic impact. H&R Block(ed) by DOGE.

Episode Date: November 22, 2024

McDonald’s just brought back the McRib… because McDonalds needs a superhero right now.Black Friday is in 1 week… we explain why Black Friday’s become Black November.And Elon’s DOGE is targeting free tax filing… good news for everyone except H&R Block.Plus, the hot new beauty trend? Crude oil… Petroleum baths are the next Botox.$MCD $SPY $HRB $INTU🎙️ Check out the latest episode of our new weekly deepdive show The Best Idea Yet: The untold origin story of “Levi’s 501s… The World’s 1st Jeans” 👖Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks —-----------------------------------------------------GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Friday the Real Friday. November 22nd. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. At this point, I do smell, Jack.

It's been five days in the same T-boy sweatsuit. I can't believe you're still wearing that. Thanks to everyone who bought our T-boy holiday merch, the sales closed yesterday. We got a ton of orders. A record-setting merch drop. Jack, you're looking fantastic over there, although you changed that you didn't smell. But in the meantime, three years. Three stories for today's pod. Jack, what do we got on the show? For our first story,

McDonald's is bringing back the McRib, again, because Ronald needs some help. We'll tell you why the McRib isn't just strategic. The McRib is a superhero. For our second story, Black Friday is one week from today. But Black Friday sales began November 1st. Why is Black Friday now Black Vember? Well, it all makes sense after our story. Trust us. And our third and final story. The first big move from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency might be a tax app. An app that files your taxes for free just shocked Wall Street. But Yetis, before we had that wonderful mix of stories. A fantastic mix of stories.

And thank you again to all the besties who bought the merch. You guys were absolutely fantastic. Amazing support. Yeties, some say that your Instagram homepage is a reflection of your soul. Oh, yes, Jack, the for you page on Instagram. it is a tapestry of topics upon which you have tapped. My homepage, right now it's half 1990s New York Yankees dynasty videos. Yeah.

And half Tyrion Lannister lecturing Joffrey in the Kings Hall. I knew there were going to be some classic jeeters in there, Jack. Right now I'm looking at cupcakes. I'm looking at pizza. But here's the issue. Some people don't like what they see on their homepage. No, Yeti. Some of you feel like, you know what Instagram?

You don't know me. And others of you don't want people seeing your homepage. Instagram, you know me a little too well. Well, here's the news. Instagram is testing a reset button for your homepage. We repeat one button that resets the recommendations that you see on Instagram. Meta is calling this a recommendation reset. But Jack and I, we've got our own branding department.

We call it an algorithm amnesty. Because that tapestry of taps that you see on your homepage, you might be sick of it. Because you've once tapped a TikTok about tennis and now all you're seeing on Instagram are topless pics around. Raphael Nadal. You poked a post about poker once, and now you're drowning in Texas Holdem content. Jack, I skimmed a carousel from skims, and now my 4U page. It is not safe for work, man. So Instagram may let you push the reset button.

That's right. It's like you never tapped anything at all. It's a coding cleanse. It's a data detox. It's a 4U page forgiveness. That's what it is. But yet is. Then Instagram's going to start personalizing again based on the next thing that you tap.

So be careful with those topless Raphael Nadal pictures. out there. Tap wisely. Mattress, mattress, mattress, Jack, let's hit our three stones. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice.

50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, McDonald's is bringing back the McRib, and it's even selling a new McRib sauce in a jug to go along with it. But the McRib is way more strategic than you ever realized. It's the most strategic thing we have ever seen.

But first, Yeties, last year we told you about the McRib effect. Ah, the McRib effect. Best thing for your mouth, worst thing for pigs. Here's the McRib effect. When the McRib is on McDonald's menu, stocks in the market rise. It's wild and it's fantastic. The data analyst, Nick Magooly, ran the numbers on this thing. And Jack, what did he discover about the McRib?

On days that the McRib is available on McDonald's menu, the S&P 500 rises three times more on average than days the McRib is not available. Sit down, stand up, and please more McRibs. I mean, compound that 3X performance. Yeah. That's night and day difference. Jerry Powell, we know how to boost the economy. It's actually a great example.

That correlation does not mean causation. Still, Goldman's a good. is probably ordering a million McRibbs right now. McRibs for the whole trading floor, baby. But yet he's, whether you eat the McRib or not, you might notice it's randomly available and it's randomly not available. It's basically been on and off the menu at McDonald's since 1981. It's done farewell tours and it's done dramatic returns.

Well, they're doing another dramatic return. Spoiler. As of next week, the McRib is back on the menu at McDonald's. But this time, the McRib has some company. And that company is McRib's giant. barbecue sauce. McDonald's is selling a jug of McRib sauce. For 1999, you get a half gallon of this special sauce. That's right. You can now wash down your pork patty with a whole pint of sauce. Jack, if you drown in this thing, you drown happy. That's the nice positive. I don't know about that,

but this is the first time that McDonald's has ever sold their secret sauces separately. Yeah, McDonald's, pro-tip, sell your special sauce. The Big Mac special sauce. Thank us in the morning. And I would die happy in that case. Yeti's here's what Jack and I found fascinating about this story. It feels like McDonald's has once again chosen a random time to bring back the McRib. But when you dive into the data, you discover that the dates that McRib comes back is actually highly strategic. So let's jump in T-Boy style. Yeties, according to Sherwood's research, they looked at the last three times McDonald's introduced the McRib.

They brought it back in 2017, in 2020, and in 2022. And Jack, what was McDonald's business situation during each of those three McRib moments? Sales were slowing or sales were falling. So McDonald's seemed to bring back the McRib when it was struggling. And Jack, what is McDonald's situation right now this year? It's struggling. Sales fell this summer. And now since then, they've had the $19 Big Mac inflation drama.

They've had the E. coli outbreak even more recently. And the stock is actually down in 2024. Not a good situation, Ronnie. So the plan? once again, they're bringing back the McRib. McRib is coming back next week. If revenues are dropping, McRibb's are popping.

So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddy is over at the McDonald's McRib? The McRib is more than strategic. It's McDonald's's as superhero. So Yetis, the data shows that if McDonald's is in distress, they call up the McRib. It's like they shine a bat signal and they get the McRib to return like Batman.

But if we dive deeper into the data, it turns out McRib is even more strategic than that. Get this. McDonald's also happens to reintroduce the McRib when pork prices are down. The last four times the McRib was reintroduced, hog prices had just fallen by 20% or more. So what we're saying, Basti, is that Ronnie McDonald is one savvy dude. He's buying the mother pork and dip. What we're saying is that the McRib is McDonald's's strategic double dipper. I like what you did there, Jack, because it is a double dip. McDonald's brings back the McRib when they want to restart sales growth, and they also bring back the McRib when it costs

less to make the McRib. That means the McRib is more than a profit puppy. It's a superhero. It's a superhero product. For our second story, Black Friday is dead. Long live Black Vember. There are two strategic reasons why Black Friday has become an entire month, and we will tell you both of them.

But Jack, I'm looking at the calendar now, and it is two months. until my birthday. You didn't say anything, but that's fine. And it is one week until Black Friday, not too shabby. Black Friday. The one day it's socially acceptable to ignore phone calls and trample small children in pursuit of that Sony television. Honey, I lost a finger, but I got the air friday. Black Friday, it remains despite everyone's attempt to be the top shopping day of the entire year. Lulu Lemon's biggest sales day ever was Black Friday last year, driven by sales of the belt bag. Fannie Pack, it was a profit puppy. But yet he's, Have you noticed that Black Friday deals are already here?

Yesterday, I looked at Amazon.com, and it said, Black Friday week is here. Jack, I can one up you on that one. Two weeks ago, Best Buy announced Black Friday is already here. Even though it wasn't here. Get this, even before that, November 11th, that is technically Singles Day. And what is Singles Day?

It's a Chinese shopping holiday that has been adopted by U.S. brands. Oh, and a couple weeks before that, Amazon did a two-day prime day in the month. of October one month before Black Friday. Yeties, you already knew that Black Friday had merged with the days after and Cyber Monday to become one post- Thanksgiving splurge. Yeah, you're not even even turkey these days. You're already halfway through a line at your local William Sonoma. But now, pre- Thanksgiving, Black Friday has stretched into an entire month. The way Jack and I see it, Black Friday is now Black Vember. And to find out why, we checked out this newsletter called Curious

commerce. And Yeties, you're going to have to pop your collar because this example is all about J. Crew. That's right. Jay Crew is actually the perfect case study on the Black Vember phenomenon. And why is that, Jack? On November 9th, almost three weeks ago, Jay Crew launched their Black Friday preview sale. Three weeks before Black Friday, they had a preview sale. And the reason they did it is because they wanted to see what you would click on during the pre-Black Friday preview sale. Because what you click on helps them prepare for the actual Black Friday. Like, follow us on this one. If Jay Crew sees big clicks for the Coastal Blue sweater, then that is valuable data for Jay Crew to analyze. Jay Crew is going to send word to fulfillment and logistics that Coastal Blue is going to be

the top color of this holiday season. So make extra. They all want Coastal Blue. Load up the yarn, boys. Thanks to their Black Friday preview, Jay Crew knows three weeks in advance what they need to stock up on. Jay crew knows Coastal Blue is going to be hot in three weeks and they can be prepared. Which leads to the second reason that Black Friday has been stretched into Black Vember. And that second reason is our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over shopping right now while they're listening to this podcast?

Demand? It's like clay. It can be sculpted and it needs to be smoothed. Now, yeties, imagine if you didn't do any work all week long. And then suddenly, you just crammed a whole weeks of working. Are you saying we'd have to do five podcasts? in one day, Nick, if we did do five podcasts in one day, we couldn't do it. I'd be so stressed, extremely anxious, I'd probably break in half. Well, that, that feeling Jack's describing,

that is what retail is like on Black Friday. You got logistics, staffing, customer service. It all surges on one single day. And since 70% of Black Friday purchases are gifts, then the pressure is on. They need to arrive well before Christmas so they can be gifted properly. And that is why the second reason brands are spreading out Black Friday. is to smooth out the orders. If retailers can spread out orders across the month, then they avoid the logistical nightmares on Black Friday. So, besties, you may not realize it,

but stores are strategically smoothing out your demand. That's why the biggest shopping day is now a shopping month. Black Friday is now Black Vember. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story before the weekend. TurboTax and H&R Block tanked this week after an update from Elon Musk's doge. This story highlights how incredibly ripe our government is for some efficiency upgrades. Now, Jack, let's talk about the most talked about article in the Wall Street Journal this week.

It was actually the most shared article this week. Elon Musk and Vivek Ram Swami wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. These two Trump-appointed men are leaders of the new Department of Government Efficiency, or as it's known in short, Doge. Their goal is to cut rules and regulations to save money and improve efficiency. Now, in this article, they actually talked about one of their plans,

which is to make it mandatory to return to the office for all three million federal government workers. Now, they don't expect all three million workers to comply, and they're okay with that because that would give them grounds to terminate federal workers,

which is one of their goals. Which is one of the ways they want to save the government money. But a different newspaper, the Washington Post, reported something else about Doge this week. And this we found fascinating. Doge's next idea is to create a mobile app for Americans to file their taxes with the IRS for free. And honestly, that's a fantastic idea. It's a

fantastic idea. And we're saying that because you know you don't want to deal with the 1040W2 Form 23B with the Schedule K1. Everyone hates how hard it is to file taxes. And it's a reason that people dislike the government. And Jack, you know who hated this idea the most? The tax filing companies? Yeah, the tax filing duopoly that controls how you file your taxes. Yeti's stock and H&R Block fell 9% the day of this news. Into it, which owns TurboTax, they fell 5% after this new free app news. Because we've said on previous episodes of this show that these two tax filing rivals

actually share the same goal. They want to keep taxes hard. If your H&R Block or Turbo Tax, you love that your adjusted gross income with a deep Capture, excluding the cost basis on your W2 is the jargon that nobody understands. They love that it's hard because it makes you have to pay them because you can't do it yourself. Jack and I have said it before. Filing taxes, it's the white whale of bureaucratic frustrations. So a Doge developed free tax filing app would be awesome for most people, but bad for these two businesses. If you happen to have a simpler income situation, you may just enter your social security number,

and then this app would tell you how much you owe or how much of a refund you get. It should be that easy. It should be, yeah. Instead, right now we kind of play games with the IRS. They know what we owe, we know what we owe. But they won't tell us what we owe. We have to tell them what we think we owe.

And yeties, for at least 60 million people, their income is so simple, it's just like a W-2 income, that they should be able to simply submit their social security number and know how much taxes they are. Like we said, a new free tax-filing app from the government.

That would be awesome for us taxpayers, but it would be bad for turbo tax and H&R blocks business. Both of those companies lost a billion dollars in market cap this week on that news. Like we said, violent taxes, it's the white whale of bureaucratic frustrations. So Jack, what's the takeaway for everyone in the American economy? Doge could succeed where others have failed. Yeties, the Department of Government Efficiency, Doge, it's new. But the idea of making the government more efficient, that concept is not new.

Here's the truth. Just about every precedent since Ronald Reagan has campaigned on simplifying government, reducing waste, and improving efficiency. In fact, President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act created the first free online portal to file your taxes. And you know what? A hundred thousand Americans use that in its first year. But that filing system developed by the Biden administration was developed by the IRS and a tech nonprofit. On the other hand, Doge's app. If it happens, it could feasibly have the best private tech workers in the entire. world working on it. Elon is running this department. Not just Elon, Silicon Valley elites like Peter Teal, Mark Andreessen, and Elon could build a wonderful tax filing app and gift it to the IRS. That could plausibly happen. So, Besties, last week, we told you how, since there are so many mandatory

spending programs in the government, it would be hard for this new Doge Commission to figure out how to save money. But it just might have the political will and the tech skills to do what other administrations couldn't. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday? McDonald's brings back the McRib when pork prices are low and when sales are struggling. The McRib, it's not just strategic, it's McDonald's superhero. It's a superhero product. For our second story, it's Black Friday.

It's not Black Friday anymore. It's spread across the whole month. Black Friday is now Black Vember because companies want to smooth out your orders like Clay. And our third and final story is the tax filing companies. They sank this week on news that Doge might create a free tax filing app. Doge could succeed where other administrations have failed. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today.

Ben, the Bitcoin is having another bit-mitzvah. Bitcoin is approaching $100,000. More people are buying than selling. It's always tough to explain why Bitcoin is up or down. But it's at $99,000 as of this recording. Since Trump's election, Bitcoin is now at 43%. Second, Gladiator 2 hits theaters this weekend, and I'm going on a date with Alex, my first movie theater date with her in five years.

If I know you, and I know you, Jack, you're going to bring your own popcorn to this thing? I feel like you get your own tub. I'm getting the biggest tub with all the butter and a gigantic diet Pepsi. Well, when it comes to the number, is Gladiator 2 spent $250 million on the movie and another $100 million on the marketing. And since the studio splits ticket revenues with the movie theaters, they need to make a lot of $700 million at the box office just to break even. Yeah, so the Maximus question that really matters, are you entertained? Are you not entertained? Wow, I can't believe you've butchered that.

My Latin is off, Jack. My Latin is rusty. And finally, banana duct tape, the art we told you about earlier this week sold for $6 million. It's duct tape, a banana, instructions, and that's it. You got to bring your own wall. And a majority of you, and our Spotify poll, said it would go for less than $1.5 million. Well, it turns out the majority of us were wrong. Banana duct tape to a wall. The piece of art sold for $6 million. And honestly, as we predicted, it went to a Bitcoin bro.

It really did go to a Bitcoin bro. No joke. It sold for $6 million to some crypto guy who says he's going to eat the banana. A $6 million banana. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by legendary Yetty Tiffany Schmidt over in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Does Thanksgiving feel late this year? I mean, I'm already freezing.

It's like dark at 1 p.m. Jack. Yeah, it feels pretty late this year. Thanksgiving is actually falling the latest it ever does. The fourth Thursday of this month is the 28th of the month. Which is the last possible Thursday that Thanksgiving could ever fall on. The reason? The first of the month was Friday. In fact, Thanksgiving will not be this late in November until the year 2030.

That's all I've got to say about that. That's all we got to say about that. Yeties, you looked fantastic all week. And for this weekend, Jack and I have arranged the perfect plan for you. Listen to The Best Idea Yet. Our latest episode is on the untold and wild origin story of Levi's jeans. That's right. Levi's Jeans was the first jeans ever, and it's become the best-selling genes in history.

So lean back and listen to our 45-minute deep dive on the Wild Story of Levi's. Check out the best idea yet. That's our new show. And we've even got a link in the episode description. That's how excited we are for you to check this thing out. Now enjoy this nine-day weekend, and Nick and I, we'll see you Monday. Jack, enjoy the movie. See you then.

And before we go, a happy 10-month anniversary to everyone else born on January 22nd who didn't get acknowledged at the top of the podcast. Wait, did you say half-birthday? No, it's my Q4 birthday, Jack. It's my Q4 birthday. And Emily Tiernan is celebrating a birthday. Congratulations, Emily. Thanks for being a Yeti. Big shout out to Isaiah Alvarez and Hotho in California, who listened to T-boy with his auntie.

And Mika Park, down the street in San Francisco, is competing. in her first high rocks competition this weekend in Dallas with a birthday. Happy birthday to Georgia Chang in Beijing, China, who introduced Teaboy to her hubby. Celebrate that win, and Alejandro Lopez is turning 39 years old in Bergen, Norway, balancing the budget and the family with a big birthday brunch. Happy birthday to Esther Sujean Kim in Hawaii, who's using her Freedom Days over in Hawaii. If you know, you know. And Devin McLaughlin's turning 29 years old over in New York City, El

Dev Meister. Happy birthday, man. Happy birthday to Katie Burrilski in Denver, Colorado, who's getting fondue with baby Nolan and her husband, Derek. I freaking love fondue. Oh, drop from McRibbin there. And Hannah A is celebrating a birthday in Charlotte, North Carolina, with some cats and some rock climbing. And happy birthday to Danny Oliva,

in Orange, California, who's celebrating with his wife and three kids going to see Wicked to each the room. Apparently, he's not entertained. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own stock of Amazon and Nick and I both own one Bitcoin, whose name is Ben. Sorry, I really threw under the bus there.