The Best One Yet - 🌬️ “Chewing Gum is Out” — Orbit’s gum turnaround. GM’s $8B robotaxi hole. Job Promotion dropoff.

Episode Date: June 13, 2024

Chewing gum sales have fallen for 14-straight years… so Orbit’s pivoting from freshness to mindfulness.Job promotions have fallen by half in the past couple years… it stinks, but it also helps.And General Motors has invested $8B into one $-losing startup… and it’s a banned robotaxi.Plus, Nathan’s Famous Hot Dogs just split from 16x hot-dog-eating champ Joey Chestnut… blame vegan wieners.$MDLZ $GM $LYFTWatch us on YouTubeGet the Saturday Newsletter: tboypod.com/newsletter  Submit Facts & Shoutouts Social: Follow us: on Instagram, TikTok, And connect with us on Nick’s LinkedIn & Jack’s LinkedInAbout Us: From the creators of Robinhood Snacks Daily, The Best One Yet (TBOY) is the daily pop-biz news show making today’s top stories your business. 20 minutes on the 3 business, economics, and finance stories you need, with fresh takes you can pretend you came up with — Pairs perfectly with your morning oatmeal ritual. Hosted by Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Thursday, the new Friday, June 13th. And today's part, it is the best one yet. It's a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Jack, we just got the results on phone etiquette. Our big poll with the Yetis out there. 400 of you voted on Spotify's Q&A feature about whether you need to text somebody before calling them. Can you do an unannounced phone call or do you need to send a warning text? 74% of you think you should just call. 74% of you think you can just call away like it's nobody's business. So there you go. Pause the pod and spontaneously call somebody. And if they're not ready for it, it's on them. Send us a text before you do. And Jack, what are the three stories for today's T-boy?

For our first story, chewing gum sales have fallen for 14 straight years in America. So Orbit Gum is pivoting how they market gum, from freshness to mindfulness. For our second story, General Motors has dropped, get this, $8 billion into one single startup. And that one, the single startup, is a banned robotaxy. But GM just announced they're investing another billion dollars, and Jack and I will explain why. For our third and final story, the rate of job promotions in this country just reached a five-year low. We're in a promo session. What is going on, Jack? There's a recession of job promotions.

It kind of stinks. But this promotion problem may actually be a promotion solution. But, Yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. I mean, honestly, no one else is doing this mix of stories today. Love this mix of stories, Jack. Yeties, we're approaching a summer weekend, so you're about to go grill some hot dogs. But sit down, stand up, and sprinkle some relish on it,

because get ready for the weirdest weiner news in the history of the hot dog. Get this. Nathan's hot dogs has officially split up with the world's hot dog eating champion. We repeat, the most famous hot dog brand just broke up with the most famous hot dog person. Nick, can I sprinkle on some context? Because we need it. I'm hungry for it. Why don't you just sprinkle on a little more, Jack? Yeah, it is every 4th of July. Nathan's, the Hot Dog Company, hosts a hot dog eating contest on Coney Island. And a young man named Joey Chestnut happens to be the 16-time champion of that there hot dog eating contest.

Last year, Joey Chestnut ate 62 hot dogs and buns in just 10 minutes. Nobody else even came close. Joey Chestnut is the Babe Ruth meets Michael Jordan meets Madonna of hot dog eating. Because he could eat all of the people Jack just mentioned. But the two hot dog legends shockingly split up this week like mustard and ketchup. In fact, Joey Chestnut is now banned from competing in this 4th of July hot dog eating contest. This is the biggest drama in hot dogs since the Oscar Meyer bun incident of 68. Oh, Jack, you gotta say a trigger warning if you're gonna bring up the Oscar Meyer bun incident to 68.

So we're all asking, what's the ridiculous reason for this hot dog high drama? And Jack, what's the answer? Joey Chestnut took on a new sponsor. And that sponsor is Impossible Foods. That sponsor happens to make plant-based hot dogs. If you like vegan hot dogs, Nathan's doesn't like you. So after 16 years, Nathan's famous pork-based hot dogs just split up with vegan Joey. The hot dog eating champion of the world cannot compete at Coney Island this 4th of July.

Yeah, it's kind of like if Fabio started using regular butter, you know what I'm getting at here? Yeah, I can't believe it's not butter would definitely break up with Fabio. They would not be able to believe it. Yet he's Nathan's Hot Dogs is a publicly traded company and their stock fell 2% on this brutal breakup news. Because like ketchup and mustard, these two should be together. So yeah, it is the way Jack and I see it this weekend, you're not just eating a hot dog, are you? You're eating 200 packed calories of controversy. With extra relish, relish that drama.

Jack, let's hit these three stories. We just relish that drama. I'll tell you that much. Two more dogs. Jack needs another weena. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm.

Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think. They need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea boy city on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show.

Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, the gum industry. Bubble gum, it is suffering right now from orbit to regulate a double bubble. But the secret to saving chewing gum is actually from 100 years ago. All right, Jack. let's whip out the millennial kill list things that our generation is killed. What are we going to add to the list, man?

Bologna, beer, bangs. Uh-huh. Now we got to add bubble gum. Oh, bubble gum is now on the millennial kill list because yeties get this. Honest question, though, how was bologna ever a thing? My dad eats bologna and butter sandwich is still today. Well, I feel like your dad enjoyed bologna beer. He used to have bangs and he probably chewed a bit of bubble gum check.

My dad did used to have long hair. Well, it's a little bit different these days. And that is why chewing gum sales in the United States peaked back in 2010. That's right. We've had 14 straight years of less and less chewing gum consumption. And then during the pandemic, the pandemic, like literally spat out the gum. That's what the pandemic did. Because in the pandemic, you didn't see people. So you didn't need your mouth to be fresh.

As gross as that is. Yeah, it's kind of disturbing. But gum sales were already shrinking and then they disappeared during the pandemic. Plus, you couldn't blow bubbles wearing a mask. So that was an issue too. Or you could. But then it got awkward. So that's why Mondalese, two years ago, the owner of Trident Gum, they decided to get out of gum.

They're sticking gum into a napkin. They're tossing it in a can, and they're saying goodbye to the slowing gum industry. They're just not sticking it under the table because that's not cool. Dentine is getting dumped. Eclipse is getting crushed. Big League Chew, it got sent down to the miners. Holy Fublish. But Jack, pause the pod for a second.

Let's just wait. Before you choke on a juicy fruit, There's an interesting reason for this gum drop. Is juicy fruit a gum? Fact check after the pod. The reason chewing gum is declining in America isn't just habit. It's also perception. It's because of perception.

Now, Yetis, yes, the pandemic changed our habits, and that affected chewing gum. If you were working from home, you weren't popping Mentos before you're meeting. Hey, you needed the fresh maker. Bonboni Mentos. But get this wild stat. 50% of chewing gum purchases in America are impulse. purchases. We repeat one at two orbits purchases is bought spontaneously. That's why you're

surrounded by gum near the cashier. There's gum everywhere around the cashier. But with e-commerce and the rise of online sales, it is not possible to make that impulse big red buy because you never even went to the counter. So that's how pandemic habits crushed chewing gum. But there's also a perception problem.

Yes, surprise problem yeties. But studies show that gum is no longer seen as a signal of rebellion. Yeah, picture those 80s like breakfast club movies. The open mouth gum chewing and bubble blowing in class. That was a cool kid move in high school, right? Yeah, it was like tattoos and ripped pants.

Yeah, can you got any gum? Yeah, I got gum. Social standards have changed, though. The calf tat, the ripped jeans, the chewing gum. That doesn't make you a bad boy in 2024. You got gum? Yeah, I got gum. We all got gum.

So if a pack of Bubbellishus won't make you look badass, you're not buying it anymore. No, you're not. What Jack and I are saying, Yetis, is that perception killed gum. Sorry, Charlie Sheen, but it's true. But there is a solution to saving bubble gum, and it doesn't even involve bubble tape. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in the chewing gum industry? To quote Mufasa from the Lion King, marketing is a circle of life. Yeties, for the last 50 years, gum brands have focused on one marketing message. Freshness.

great taste, smell and feel like a wintry mountain top for that big meeting. But now gum brands are pivoting to a new message of mindfulness. You're going to see commercials soon for chewing gum to relieve stress, to relieve anxiety, and to relieve the angst that we all have in this crazy stressful world. But here's the fascinating thing. That new marketing message is actually an old marketing message from 100 years ago. Let's go back to the year 1900. Riggly Spearmint Gumb in Chicago used to market gum as a stress reliever.

Boom, a century later, an orbit is about to spend $50 million on the same marketing message. Chew gum as a way to relieve stress. They did it in 1900. Now they want you doing it in 2024. Chewing gum is a reminder that what's old can become new again. Chewing gum, it's a reminder that marketing has a circle of life. For our second story, General Motors. has just renewed its vows to its self-driving car love with another $1 billion.

General Motors has now invested $9 billion into a startup that's losing money. Yes, it is. But we think it's worth it. Yes, we do. And we'll tell you why. Yes, we shall. Yeties, earlier this year, Jack and I recorded the first ever podcast inside a self-driving robotaxie in San Francisco.

We chose a waybone robo taxi instead of a cruise robo-taxie. because Cruz was banned. Ah, yes, it was banned. Cruz, they paused all operations earlier this year after a really awkward, ugly incident. It was in October, a cruise driverless car dragged a pedestrian who had just been hit in a hit-and-run accident by another car.

So General Motors, Cruz's owner of this self-driving Robotaxi, put their operations on pause immediately. GM basically took a break from their relationship with Cruz. Well, since then, Cruz, they've made some changes, haven't they, Jack? Cruise recalled all 900 of their self-driving cars, and they fired and replaced their CEO. So today, yeties, you may see a cruise cruising through cities like Houston, Texas. But still,

those cruise autonomous rides have a backup human driver just in case. But here's the news. This week, General Motors just renewed their vows to their struggling self-driving robo-taxy business. They really did. And they did so by taking out their checkbook. Which always helps with the breakup. just invested another $850 million into their self-driving car subsidiary. $850 million. Sit down, stand up, and sit back down on that chassis. Jack, that is a lot of money, man. Yeah, it's even bigger when you learn this.

Because get this, Yeti's, General Motors has already spent $8 billion on cruise robo taxis. GM is in so deep with cruise, you have no idea. It's just weird at this point. Yeti's GM's self-driving car quest began in 2016 when they acquired San Francisco-based Cruz for $1 billion. And in the eight years since, General Motors has spent money on Cruise like it's that Julia Roberts movie where she's the prostitute, Jack, and I think it's Richard Gear just gives her a blank checkbook.

Pretty woman. Yeah. Yeah, this is pretty much pretty woman. Yeah, Cruz is one heck of a pretty woman, Jack. GM has funded Cruz with $1 billion per year for eight years. One billion bucks a year yet is that is NASA money. With that kind of money, General Motors should put a robo taxi on the moon. And here's the kicker.

Cruz hasn't made any money with that giant investment they got from GM. No, in fact, Cruz is still in development mode. They have spent and lost all of General Motors $8 billion. All right, I'm going to pump the brakes and summarize. GM has put $8 billion into Cruz, their self-driving car company. Cruz has returned $0 of revenue in return. And that leads to the shocker. Now GM is putting in another almost billion dollars more into that money-losing operation.

Add it all up, and Richard Garrett, I'm sorry, General Motors has now spent $9 billion on this self-driving cruise relationship. For the same price, GM could have acquired Lyft, the entire ride hail company, and had $2 billion of spare change afterwards. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at General Motors? If you're investing, you can't just look at the denominator. You must look at the numerator, too. Now, Yeties, yes, General Motors is spending $9 billion on Cruise, but what they're building is a potential monster money maker, baby. Because if GM builds a perfect self-driving car with Cruz,

then it can mass-produce those cars into a huge fleet of robotaxies. And if it does pull that off, then General Motors could put Uber and Lyft out of business. Because human-driven rides, that business model, can't compete on price with a robotaxie. So Uber's worth $150 billion today. Yes, it is. If GM cracks the self-driving code, then what we're saying is Cruz could be worth the same or more than Uber. Cruise could ultimately be worth more than General Motors itself. So Besties, what Jack and I like to do in this situation is we like to look at an investment like a fraction. The denominator is the investment, the amount you've spent. Nine billion dollars that General Motors has spent on Cruise. That's painful.

But the numerator is the potential gain. A potential gain of $150 billion or more in Cruz's valuation. That is why GM continues to throw money at Cruz, even though they've lost $8 billion with it already. Because, yeah, it is, if you're investing, you can't just look at the denominator, the money you've spent so far. You need to look at the numerator, the potential return. Now a quick word from our sponsor.

For our third and final story, the American worker is suffering from a lack of job promotions. But the promo session, the recession of job promotions, is actually the perfect treatment for our inflation sickness. But Jack, before we start, I got to ask, have you seen a chiropractor lately? Because the pandemic caused a whiplash in the jobs market, man. A whiplash, a worker confidence. We were feeling it during the pandemic. Because early in the pandemic, in the pandemic, in 2020, you had people working multiple full-time jobs all on Zoom from the same chair at home,

making three incomes working from home. And that's why you were buying 30 different different types of Bitcoin and crypto and then jump in on the whatever GameStop trade. In 2022, workers were so scarce. Employers added senior to every job description. Every single job description was dropping a VP on there like it was no big deal. Oh, not the intern. I'm the senior college intern.

Title inflation. It was real in 2022. And that labor market mayhem, it contributed to our too hot economy and our inflation problem because everyone was getting paid a whole bunch of money. But now in 2024, with our awkward economy and lingering inflation, fewer people are quitting their jobs than in years. Jack and I have told you about it on this podcast. Quiet quitting has become loud lingering.

Today, people are happy just to have a stable job. And more people than ever are just chilling in their roles. Like we said, you may want to see a chiropractor because the labor market, it's been going through a whiplash. They're so good at it. It's like you used to work at Yellowstone. It's amazing. But yet is, guess who noticed that people are just chilling in their jobs right now? Your manager noticed that you are just chilling in your job right now.

And that's why your boss has stopped giving out promotions like they had to during the pandemic. What we're saying, besties, is that the employment pendulum hath swung. Confidence swung. from workers in 2022 to managers in 2024. In fact, get this, in the first quarter of this year, the number of people who got promoted was half the five-year average. According to ADP, the payroll company, just 1.3% of America's 68 million white-collar workers got a promotion in the first three months of this year. Just 1.3% the lowest level in five years. That's a promo session. That's a promo session. And it's particularly painful for one surprising group.

Who's that, Jack? Entry-level workers. Junior workers, college grads, interns, hoping for that full-time offer after they crush the summer internship. They're hit the hardest by this promo session. Believe it or not. And here's why. If Carol from accounting isn't getting promoted, it has a like waterfall effect.

Right. It means Julie the junior, who works under Carol, she has nowhere to elevate to. And since Julie doesn't elevate, that entry-level job is not listed. Yeah, like Julie wants a $10,000 pay raise in another week of vacation, but she can't get it unless Carol gets promoted, and Carol's not getting promoted. So the pain of the promo session trickles from the top down to the bottom. But besties, as frustrating as it is to not get promoted

when you feel like you deserve one, and we've been there. Jack and I have been there. There may be a silver lining here. This promo session problem may actually be a promo solution. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddy? who are everyone working hard in the economy. A promo session might be how we avoid an actual recession. Yet is interesting thing.

Yesterday, the government announced our inflation report for the month of May. And prices, they rose 3.3% from the year before. That means the fight against inflation is not over. Prices are still rising too fast in this economy. But many economists expected we needed a major slowdown of the economy to stop inflation. They thought we needed a recession. to kill inflation. That's why everyone was talking about

recessions two years ago. Economists thought we would need a lot of layoffs in order to cool the job market to reduce the spending to stop inflation. But instead, we're actually getting something much less painful, aren't we, Jack? We're getting fewer job openings and fewer promotions.

Painful, but not as bad as a layoff. That is a lukewarm jobs market. And what Jack's describing, like fewer promotions, that lukewarm jobs market may actually be with needed to kill inflation. And that's why the promotion problem may actually be a solution to inflation. Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us for the new Friday? To boost sales of chewing

gum, the industry is pivoting to a marketing message from 100 years ago. From freshness to stress relief. It's the circle of life of marketing. For our second story, it's GM. They're renewing their financial vows and crews, their self-driving car company with another $850 million in The way we see it, General Motors isn't just looking at the $9 billion denominator. The amount they're investing. It's looking at the $150 billion numerator. The gain they'll get if Cruz succeeds. And that is the fraction of investing.

And our third and final start. The number of job promotions has fallen by half in the past two years, as managers have regained the leverage. But this promo session, as frustrating as it might be, might be how we avoid an actual. recession. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, America's Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, just announced no changes to its benchmark interest rate. That was fully expected. What was not expected was what the forecast would be. What are they going to do

for the rest of the year? The Fed thinks that they may cut interest rates before the year ends. Yeah, one time, but only if inflation continues to come down. Start checking that Zillow app. And second, be Real, the once-a-day photo startup that scared Instagram? It just got acquired. Be Real was just acquired for $500 million by another French company. And Be Real is why your buddy Timmy stopped lunch for 10 seconds to take that one photo on that random one day. Remember, it took a photo out and in at the same time.

That was a cool feature. I know. I wish I'd figure that out before like 30 times I'd used it. And finally, Buckees is opening the largest convenience store on earth in the state of Texas, it's got over a hundred gas pumps, neck. Yeah, but Jack, in case you're done pumping the gas, you can enjoy 1,000 food and drink options because they probably have 200 urinals.

Buckys is breaking its own record for biggest convenience store by less than 300 square feet. Yeah, this isn't a convenience store. This is a mall, Jack. Basically, yeah. But it's roadside, and it's got a gas station. Everything's bigger in Texas, apparently, by 300 square feet.

Now, time for the best fact yet. one whipped up by Jack and me because we noticed something, Eddie's, and we really wanted to share it with you. Fake news outlets outnumber real news outlets in America right now. According to NewsGuard, there are 1,213 daily newspapers in America, and that is a number that has dropped. And according to the same source, there are 1,263 websites pretending to be newspapers, but are actually political influence operations. I'm sorry, Jack, have you heard of the Des Moines Sun, the Ann Arbor Times, or the Empire State today? All of those sound like newspapers,

but they're not real newspapers. They're pretending to be. And here's why Jack and I wanted to share it with you. Because just this week, when we were jumping in T-boy style and doing research for this show, we came across exactly this kind of fake news resource. We saw a statistic that cited the Federal Reserve.

That's America's Central Bank. So we pursued it and clicked on it to double-check that stat. And what did we discover, Jack? A few clicks later, we realized it wasn't the Federal Reserve Bank. It was some website called Federal Reserve Financial Services. It had nothing to do with our nation's central bank. It was all a fake news service, and we discovered it and caught it while preparing for this show.

The amount of inauthentic, manipulative content online is astounding. So, yeties, be careful out there, but Jack and I, we got your backs. Besties, you look fantastic for the new Friday. One of the best ways you can help grow this show is actually to drop down and give us a five-star review. We love five-star reviews. Even better if you leave us a handwritten, well, not handwritten, hand-type review. In fact, if you leave us a five-star review, Jack will give you another whiplash sound on today's podcast. It's the new cookie crisp, baby.

Walker, Texas Ranger over there, not too shabby, Jack. I've never whipped a whip. Well, let me just stop there. But you've whipped up a couple takeaways. Yet he's keep looking fantastic. John Dutton and I, we'll see you tomorrow. And before we go, a happy birthday to Yeti, Annabelle Paxoy and San Francisco, who is celebrating with Jennifer's famous Pesto pasta.

And happy birthday to Benedict Drew in San Jose, California. This is a mythical beast with a huge heart. And Jack, guess who's turning 29 from Weston, Connecticut? Chazz? Chaz Di Pasquale, the buddy who we met after our live show, New York, at Artichoke Pizza. He was there, Jack. I think you signed Charlie's back, which was an epic experience. We both shine Charlie's back, and he was incredible.

That was so much fun. Happy birthday, celebrate Charlie. And happy birthday to Kayla Pickett in New York City, who's hiking the sunny Dolomites right now. Not too shabby. And Matt and Jenny Cordell in Austin, Texas, have got their 15th wedding anniversary, and we were invited to the party. I wish we could make a check. I know.

Celebrate the wins without us, guys. And congratulations to Catherine Smith, who's graduating from UCLA. If you work in the legal field, hit this galup on LinkedIn ASAP. This is not legal advice, but you should take it as such. And good luck to Chris Thomas in Seattle, Washington, who's taking his med school boards right now today. And to anyone else who's celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins.

He was in the breakfast club, right?