The Best One Yet - 🎄 “Christmas Creep” — Holiday sales already here. Bumble’s founder moves on. Warren Buffett’s cash pile.

Episode Date: November 7, 2023

Noticed that holiday shopping promotions already replaced Halloween? “Christmas Creep” is happening earlier than ever — Because Early Bird shoppers are the most valuable kind.Bumble’s founder, Whitney Wolfe Herd, is stepping down as CEO — She’s the youngest ever woman to IPO a company… and she did it while defying a law of business.And Warren Buffett just shared one shocking number: $157 Billion — That’s how much cash he’s sitting on right now, because cash has gone from fool to cool.$BMBL $MTCH $BRK.A $TGT $WMTSubscribe to our newsletter: tboypod.com/newsletterWant merch, a shoutout, or got TheBestFactYet? Go to: www.tboypod.comFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on Youtube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Tuesday, T-Boy, Tuesday, November 7th, and today's pod, it is the best one yet. Jack, it is a T-boy. What's going on, man? I don't know. What's going on with you? I don't know.

What's the first story for today's show? Oh, okay. For our first story, Yetis, it's not just you. Christmas marketing has already begun. Christmas creep. It's a real thing. And it began earlier than ever because the early bird gets the early bird. For our second story, Berkshire Hathaway has made so much.

money over the years, it now has $150 billion of cash. Warren Buffett's cash pile is now bigger than Nike and Disney and Morocco. And our third and final story is the founder of Bumble, Whitney Wolf Hurd, who became the youngest woman ever to IPO her company. Now Whitney is stepping down to make her own first move. Actually, it's her second move. This is her second move. That's actually her third move.

No, more in the story. It's a new move. But yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of story. A fantastic move, Jack. A wonderful move of three stories. Is your sleep pattern a little screwed up still? Bessies, is daylight saving still messing with your mornings? Well, we just got some incredible sleep data from Calm.

Calm, the meditation app, their annual snooze report, was anything but. We're going to flip into this, so we recommend you pop in melatonin right now. Yeties, we've got the data on your drowsiness. Here it is. Get this. According to Calm survey, 25% of adults in America, America, sleep naked. 25% of us have not got anything going on under the covers, Jack.

Every night, no clothes. And the other 75% are the un-naked majority. All right, how about this one? 25% of Gen Z Chicaguans sleep with a snack on their bedside table. They don't have a glass of water by their bedside table. They got a peanut butter sandwich. Nick, are you ready for this one? What's the number one most tired city in America?

Jack, what's the answer, please? According to calm, 87% of New Yorkers say they need more sleep, which kind of makes sense because the city that never sleeps, apparently never actually sleeps. All right, what's the city that's shockingly? It's Miami. Miami's that city. 50% of Miami snags a nap in the middle of the day. It's incredible. South Beach is for the siestas. Now, this one I just feel bad for, the scariest city in America. Oh, what city has the most nightmares in America? It's Philadelphia.

Two-thirds of Philadelphia folk have a nightmare almost every night. This year you can blame it on the Phillies. There you go. But Yeties, what's the city with the worst sleep patterns in America? Besties, one is a city that just can't snooze in the United States. What's the city that Calm is targeting most with their sleep meditation out right now? Well, the answer is Phoenix, Arizona. Phoenix. Half of Phoenixins, Phoenicians?

Phoenician. Phoenicianites? Half of people in Phoenix sleep. than six hours at night. That is the lowest sleep rate in America. Maybe it's the dry heat in Phoenix. Maybe it's the scorpions out there. Or maybe it's Arizonans in general wondering why they don't do daylight savings like everyone else.

There are a lot of older people down there who really don't enjoy sleeping, Jack. Whatever the reason, Phoenix, we hope you get some shut-eye. In the meantime, Jack and I, we're going to stay awake, and we're going to hit those three stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dawn. They had an idea that cost of culture. That's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go.

We can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show. For our first story, the holiday shopping season. It just began earlier than ever. It's called Christmas creep. And it's thanks to early bird shoppers. All right, Jack, over the weekend,

you know Molly and I are rewatching succession. She hasn't seen it yet, right? So we turn on HBO Max. And on HBO Max, the first commercial we see, it's for Target's holiday sale. Do you mean, you have the ad-supported HBO? Do you need me to Venmo you some money? What am I going to do? Well, Target's telling us it's already the holidays, apparently.

Yeah, it is I walked out my front door the day after Halloween. My neighbor's fake spiders in the front yard are now fake reindeer. That's so true. Dude, that literally happened in our neighborhood. It's the same company that switched them out. San Francisco like ornamental came and they like

threw the jackal lantern in the van and they were like get out Santa Hanukahari come on in Yeties it's not just you

and it's not just us last week was Halloween this week is the holidays Yeties the day after Halloween November 1st Starbucks unveiled their new red and green

holiday cup for the season Darling at Duncan boom she's already doing a gingerbread flavor last week The gap their entire website is currently draped in green gift

you can buy for the holidays. Best Buy added holiday deals yesterday on Monday, November 6th. Amazon is starting their holiday promotions on 1111. Oh, and this holiday cheer, it's affecting our music choices, isn't it, Jack? That's right. All I want for Christmas is you? It's already top 50 in the charts since November 2nd. Yides, we repeat, we are not one week into November,

and Mariah Carey is already in the top 50 this year. Wham! Last Christmas I gave you my heart. And the very next day you took it away. And you replaced it with promotions for next Christmas. And that's not even the wildest part, is it, Jack? If you shop at Dollar Tree, you notice their early Christmas promotion? It happened in July. They were selling candy canes in July.

Like the candy canes were melting while they were selling them. I think they were last Christmas is candy can't, Nick. At some point, the beginning is the end, if you know what we're getting at. But yet he's here's what Jack and I found fascinating about this. story. There is actually a marketing term for this very phenomenon. It's called Christmas creep. Christmas creep. And in the 20 teens, Yetis, we saw Christmas creep become Christmas crazy. Black Friday got rescheduled to Thursday when we were like after college. I mean, like Turkey was still on the table and your aunt Edna was deep in aisle 6 at Walmart wrestling with

someone who you'd never seen before. Now, the pandemic paused the phenomenon for a couple years, but that pauses over. And now Christmas creep, like gravity, seems to be a force that cannot be stopped getting earlier and earlier. This year, Home Depot, Lowe's and Macy's, they're all whamming us with Christmas promotions in October. And Jack, why are retailers now beginning Christmas before Halloween? Because 35% of their annual profits in department stores happen over the holidays. This is the crucial period. We repeat, one at every three retail profits is occurring within the next Two months. So Target starts their sales a day earlier so that you don't go to Walmart instead. Because you're already at Best Buy since you'd already left forever 21.

It's a slippery Santa slope. And at this pace, Jack, Hanukkah better at a ninth night. And Kwanza better merge with Labor Day. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddy is over? Watching the Christmas creep. The early bird gets the early bird. Yeties, one of the most powerful forces in all retail is the early bird. shopper. We're talking about your buddy, Becca. She's making her list. She's checking it twice four months ago. She's checking her list back when Rudolph was still nursing his like from the last Christmas, Jack. These early birds like Becca, they aren't so valuable because they start shopping early. They're so valuable because they buy everything at once and that everything is early.

That's the key to the early bird shopper. According to SMS bump, early bird shoppers are most likely to buy their entire Christmas list in one swoop. That's why Old Foods is selling. Figgie pudding in August. And that's why Best Buy is dropping snow globes on the 4th of July. The early bird shopper doesn't get the worm. The early bird is the worm for the retailers to go get. Ladies, what is driving the increased Christmas creep we're all seeing? It's that early birds are chasing early birds.

Early bird retailers chase early bird shoppers. For our second story, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. They just announced that he's sitting on a record. pile of cash. Because cash has gone from fool to cool. Jack, whip out the calendars for us over there. Warren Buffett,

92 years young. He's ancient, but he's still crushing it. The stock market is his shuffleboard and we're all just little pieces in it. Berkshire Hathaway is Warren Buffett's company and they own entire companies on the one hand and stocking companies on the other hand.

Now, yet here's how they did last quarter. Berkshire Hathaway's companies that they own, like GEICO or Brook Sneakers or a whole bunch of railroads, they did pretty well last quarter, right, Jack? They made $11 billion in profits for the company. On the other hand, the stocks that Berkshire Hathaway owns didn't do that well.

Their stock portfolio fell by $24 billion, which led to an overall loss for the quarter. But let's add it all up, and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Investment Fund is still outperforming the entire stock market. Berkshire stock is up 19% in the past year, while the S&P 500 is only up to 14%. But here's the thing, Yetis.

We just told you a whole bunch of numbers. You can almost forget them for a moment. There is one number that really shocked us in this entire Warren Buffett report. $157 billion. $157 billion. And Jack, what's so special about that number? That's not how big the fund is. It's how much cash they have.

Yeties, we repeat, Warren Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway Fund are sitting on $157 billion in cash. That's how much profit they've accumulated over the years. But Jack, we should sprinkle on a little context here. Can you help us with that, please? That's more cash than the entire value of Nike, the entire value of Disney or the entire value of Wells Fargo. Jack, you want to sprinkle on a little more context, please?

It's more cash than the annual economic output of Morocco, Ecuador, or Bulgaria. Jack, what the heck? Can you sprinkle on even more context, please? With $157 billion, Berkshire Hathaway could pay for all 600,000 Vermonters. He could pay for their whole lifestyle for the whole year for four full years. You want some maple syrup? Here, let me issue a dividend. He could cover Vermont's tab for four years. Now, yet he's Jack and I should point out, all this Berkshire Hathaway cash,

it's not just sitting in some savings account of Chase with our buddy Jamie. No, he's invested in short-term risk-free investments like treasury bills. Yeah, he owns treasury bills, which are U.S. government IOUs. They're a liquid asset. And those IOUs are generating over 4% in interest for Warren Buffett. Now, Jack, if you have $157 billion in cash earning 4% interest, how much interest exactly are you making? $6 billion a year. Yeties, we repeat, Warren Buffett's earning $6 billion just by keeping his cash in cash. And that's a reason that Berkshire Hathaway stock is at an all-time high right now.

Jack, you know, Warren Buffett loves hamburgers? I didn't. I thought he loved Coca-Cola. Actually, I didn't either. I just figured he liked them if he likes Coca-Cola. But honestly, if he wants, he could just buy ShakeShack with the $6 billion in cash. Oh, just has his annual interest payment. He could buy Shake-Shack?

No big deal. Throw a couple shake-shacks on the tab. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddy, Warren Buffett? Cash has gone from fool to cool. Yet is historically, keeping money in cash was like what you did when you just couldn't decide what to do. right, Jeff? Keeping money in cash was the non-decision default. It represented, I don't know what to do, indecisiveness, nervousness about the stock market, maybe. When stocks were booming, you felt like a fool when you left your money in cash. But today, it's a different story. Cash is a legitimate investment

right now. And Warren Buffett apparently is proud of it. Warren Buffett thinks that stock prices are pretty darn high, so he'd rather make 4% per year risk-free with cash. And then have cash on hand to buy if prices of stocks come down. That's what Warren's doing. By the way, this is Nick and 42% of our portfolio is sitting in cash. This is Jack, 37% of mine is cash. We didn't coordinate this yet. We're just talking about it. And like, we're like, we both just have a lot of money in cash right now, don't we, Jack? When interest rates were low, I didn't have much money in cash because leaving money in cash felt foolish. But now that interest rates are high, cash has become an investment in and of itself. Yeties with high interest rates, cash has become cool.

It's become an investment decision. For our third and final story, Bumble, the female first dating app, is moving on from its legendary founder and CEO Whitney Wolf heard. Her leadership defied one of the key rules of business. And we'll tell you that rule in the takeaway. But in the meantime, Jack, can we go back to February 10th, 2021 set the scene for us, please? A young woman was walking around Times Square with her one-year-old toddler son. And she made a right on 41st Street and walked into the NASDAQ exchange. She then went on to ring the opening bell of trading with her baby on her hip.

Yeties, that made her the youngest female CEO to IPO a company ever. And she did it while holding a toddler. That's Whitney Wolfe heard. And that's also the day that she became the youngest self-made female billionaire ever. Yeah, she was 31 years old when Bumble began trading publicly on NASDAQ at evaluation of $9 billion with a B dollars. But Nick, can we take the Yetis seven years earlier from that day when she founded Bumble at the young age of 24?

I mean, Jack, if you're asking for us to set another scene, let's set another scene, man. Let's do it, baby. I'm here. Yeties, Bumble's motto is make the first move. And Whitney Wulf heard did that literally after she left Tinder. Literally, because before Bumble, she co-founded Tinder. So then she ends up suing Tinder, her former company and employer for sexual harassment. She settled that lawsuit against Tinder, but she didn't stop there.

She went on to launch a competitor of Tinder, the only competitor of Tinder, and it was called Bumble. But yet is, we can fast forward to today now. Bumble isn't just Bumble anymore, is it Jack. It's a family of four different dating apps. Yeah, because Bumble also owns Badoo. A Russian dating app. And fruits. A dating app for Gen Zee.

And official. Not a dating app. but a relationship app for couples. Oh, and that's not all. On this very podcast, Jack and I have covered Bumble launching physical clubs across the country. And even a restaurant in Soho. Yeah, Bumble had a restaurant

where you could go on dates after you met on the Bumble dating app. But today, Bumble stock price is down 80% since that IPO two years ago because Gen Z's just not that into swiping. Apparently, they would prefer just to meet at the restaurant but not like on the dating app before the restaurant. So to steward the next leg of Bumble's growth,

Whitney Wolf Hurd is passing the baton on the first day of 2021. And Jack, who is the new CEO of Bumble starting on January 1st? Lydia Ann Jones, a veteran techie who's currently the CEO of Slack. Job opening over at Slack. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Bumble? Bumble defied one of the most fundamental rules of business. Yet he's Jack and I want to make a distinction here. There is a difference between a feature, a product, and a company.

You can't build a company simply based off a business. feature because anyone can copy that feature. In fact, Jack and I did a story just last month about Blue Apron and how it failed because meal kits are just a feature. So when you think about Bumble, what is Bumble really? It's a dating app where women make the first move in the conversation. And that doesn't sound like a product. That, it sounds like a feature. And a feature can't be a company. Tinder easily could have copied the feature that women make the first move. But Bumble made that feature its defining feature. It made it a state. It made it a state. It built a brand off of that feature of being women first.

And it wasn't just the dating app. They also have Bumble for business and Bumble BFF, a dating app for meeting friends. Because of that feature. Yeti's that is why Bumble bans body shaming and bans ghosting and bans unsolicited nudes. It's because of the feature. The feature that women make the first move. Yet is Whitney Wolf heard she defied a key rule of business. She built an entire company out of a feature.

Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for T. Tuesday. The moment your trick-or-treating ended, retailers were pushing Santa on us. It's called Christmas creep. The early bird retailers are going for the early bird shoppers. For our second story, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway isn't sitting on $157 billion in cash. It's making money with that cash. Because yet is high interest rates. Cash has gone from fool to cool. And our third and final story is Bumble's founder and CEO Whitney Wolf Hurd. She's stepping down effective next year. Her legacy, it's defying a key rule of business. She built a company out of a feature.

But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. Yeties, it is November 7th, which means today is one month since Israel was attacked by Hamas on October 7th. The number of innocent people dead in Israel and in Palestine is heartbreaking to see. And honestly, that is really the only other news that you need to know today. Now, time for the best facts. yet. This one sent in by Yeti Dr. Amid Ome from lovely Charlotte, North Carolina. Push and play. Hey, besties. Dr. O'm here, board certified dermatologist with a PSA about dry lips in the winter.

Ditch the chapstick. Lip bombs can contain ingredients, which actually cause more irritation to our lips, such as eucalyptus, menthol, and salicylic acid. Keep it simple in reach for something like aquifer or plain old vaseline. Lastly, don't lick your lips. Saliva can actually irritate. irritate the skin outside your mouth. Oh, and don't forget the SPF. Licking your lips is classic. It's like scratching, you know, an itch. It just makes you want to scratch it even more. I mean, I'm shocked he didn't mention gummy bears, Jack. I really thought that was the good prescription. I've used aqua for before, but really, he doesn't like Bert's bees, huh? I'm a sucker for eucalyptus, and I know you are too, Jack. That's our go-too.

No, I may try out his advice and try to nip it at the bud this winter season, you know what I mean? Rub some gummy bears and wrinkle on that thing. And if you see me lick at my lips, stop me. Please. Pause the pod, Jack's, look at his lips again. Yeties, you look fantastic today. And remember, if you're in Phoenix, we hope you can get a better night's sleep tonight. Eight hours is what you should target.

Seven hours is better than six. And if you're in Miami, yes, it is time to wake up from that nap right now. And if you're in New York, it is yesterday. You haven't gone to bed. So, Yeties, the best way to help grow this pot is to tell your buddies, H-Y-H-D-B-O-I. Have you had the best one yet? If you know, you know. Before we go, congratulations and happy birthday to legendary Yeti David Brink,

who's doing logistics from Maryland to Chicago to Louisville, Kentucky. And happy birthday to Lolly Anguiano, who's celebrating at a conference in Palm Springs. And Lauren Gouin is celebrating that 31st birthday staying up late in New York City. And happy birthday to Mika Villarreal, who's turning two while grooving all over Napa. 19 more years till that first Pino. And Emily Kleinfelder, congratulations on the new job in San Francisco as the director of talent for BVP Forge.

And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-Boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own stock of Amazon, Disney, and Berkshire Hathaway, and Nick own stock of Nike and ShakeShack. And we both own ETFs of the S&P 500. Guys, guys, guys, there's an ad-free version of Israel Macs? Yes. Oh, my God.

It's always been ad-free. It's only like a year ago that they introduced ads. I'm just shocked, Nick subscribes to it. No, I didn't know it. Dude, we covered it on the pot. I don't know what I was thinking. I don't know what I was thinking.

I got to end this. I got to end this.