The Best One Yet - 🍸 “Cocktail of the Year” — Espresso Martini’s gateway drink. College Football’s playoff penalty. Owen Corning’s coziest stock.

Episode Date: December 6, 2022

Orders for the Espresso Martini quadrupled in 2022, because it’s the ultimate gateway drink for the cocktail curious. College Football’s tripling the size of the playoffs, but it’s facing an ancient growth risk: Dilution. And just as it gets too cold, Owens Corning is a pure-play cozy stock.$PRNDY $OCFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on YoutubeWant a Shoutout on the pod? Fill out this formGot the Best Fact Yet? We got a form for that tooLearn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Tuesday, T-Boy Tuesday, December 6th. And today's pod is the best one yet. Yes, it is, Nick. We got a T-Boy. Yetis, don't fight time, don't fight tigers, and don't fight trends. Oh, and don't fight our first story.

What is our first story, Jack? The first story is the fastest growing cocktail stock in the history of the world. It's the espresso martini. Because the espresso martini is the perfect gateway product. For our second story, college. football just made its biggest change ever, but that comes with a big risk. Hey, ref, can we get a whistle on this thing? Dilution on the offense, million dollar penalty, repeat first down.

And our third and final story is Owens Corning. They are beating the stock market right now by insulating your upstairs. Grab a flannel blanket. We just found a pure play cozy stock. But before we hit that wonderful mix, Yetie's. A fantastic mix check. I really love this movie. It is not just December.

No, Yeti's it is Santa Rally season. Yes, you are shopping for gifts. Yes, you're listening to Mariah Carey right now. But Wall Street is in a good mood too. Because it's Wall Street's favorite time of year too. Yet this. During the five weeks from Thanksgiving to New Year's Eve, stocks jump 71% of the time. We're talking seven out of ten years, stocks rise during the holidays.

71% of the time, we enjoy a Santa rally. Jack, call Rudolph on the Bloomberg Terminal. We got ourselves reindeer out. Between turkey feasting and stocking stuffing, the Dow typically rises by 1.4%. Now, besties, Jack and I jumped in T-Boy style. It turns out that this shocking trend goes back to 1896. 130 years of stock market peace and joy during the holiday. Charles Dickens should have put down his Christmas Carol called up his broker, Carol.

Please, sir. Can I have some more stock market? Just one more shareplace. The days get short, but the stock buying gets long. The snow pours down, but the market pours up. Now, of course, Yeti's past performance is no indication of future returns. Great point, Jack. The Grinch could still spoil this year's Santa surge.

But elves, they have 401Ks too. Oh, and Mrs. Claus? She has some money socked away because she wants to buy a vacation pole. So Nick and I, we got a reindeer rally on our wish list. On Dasher, on dancer, on prancer on Vixen. A reindeer rally would make us stop Schwitzer. Let's hit our three stories. Fifteen years before this song,

two boys from the Northeast met in the dawn. They had an idea that caused a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. 50%. That's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show.

Start the show. For our first story, we just found out the faster. growing cocktail of the year. It's officially the espresso martini. Yeah, all the votes are in. And the espresso martini is number one because it's the go-to drink of the cocktail curious. Okay, so Jack, let's just whip this up. Let's get right to it.

People want to know one part simple syrup, two parts Klua, two parts vodka, one part espresso. Do you see what I'm doing over here? Then you add garnish. You are doing it pretty well. You kind of look like Tom Cruise and cocktail. You shake it so it's chill. and then you poured into a martini glass. I thought your form was fantastic, and I thought you stuck the landing check.

This ain't no shake weight over here, Nick. No, it's not yet. That is the original recipe for the espresso martini. It's a cocktail of contrast, because the espresso martini, as you heard from those ingredients, it's got caffeine and it's got vodka. It is both an upper and it's a downer. And 2022, the votes are in, was the year of the espresso martini. And the votes are your drink orders.

Like research from Nielsen tracked the order. of bars across the United States, and they found who's actually winning in the bars. Nielsen found that the espresso martini surged to the top 10 of the most ordered cocktails in the United States this year. It passed the Manhattan. Now, Jack and I, we should sprinkle on a little context here, right? Jack, like, who's actually number one when it comes to cocktails? Let's sprinkle on some salt around the room of that class. Yeah, the margarita is still America's number one cocktail of choice. We should make that clear. But the number of people who ordered an espresso martini grew by 300% and for all you non-mathematic students that's quadrupling from the year before

hey de groni spagliato how do you like them apples and this espresso martini trend is actually reflected in the stock market too because the key ingredient collua is owned by 50 billion dollar liquor legend per no ricard the stock for this liquor legend trades in paris and they just recorded record sales and record profits for this year. In fact, thanks to the espresso martini, per no Ricard's liquor stock, just enjoy $10 billion in revenues for the first time in its century old history. You ever had an espresso martini, Nick? I'm really more of a Frappuccino guy. That's an unacceptable answer. Yet he's at a glance. This espresso martini, it feels like it's powered by two very obvious trends. Cold coffees are at an all-time high, and liquor sales are also at an all-time-time-off.

So it kind of seems obvious. You like mix your two top drinks into one ultimate concoction and then you charge double the price, not too shabby. But this trend is deeper than that. Espresso martini is also driven by nostalgia. Because the espresso martini was born in the 1980s before Jack and I were born. And we're seeing a whole bunch of 1980s revivals across all of pop culture right now. For example, big hair it is in right now. Molls. Shopping malls are back.

Neon is a hot color right now. Tina Turner. It's trending on Spotify. Super Mario is getting the movie. Is he? He is. And he's drinking an espresso martini. So yet he's coffee is trending.

80s nostalgia is trending. It would seem those would be the main and only reasons for the espresso martini surge. But Nick and I, we think it's something even deeper. And that deeper happens to be our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies ordering a, hey, bartender, two espresso martinis please? Never underestimate the Gateway product. All right, Yeties, here is the consumer challenge. You're at the bar.

The date is watching you. Everyone else is watching you, too. What do you order? It's an intimidating, reputational, risking moment for you. You're not going to order a Long Island iced tea, are you? Jack, are you going to do a Jack and Coke and just like a regular Jack? Don't tell me you're ordering the beer you ordered in college. Jack, you're not going to order a Jack and Coke and say, hey, my name is Jack, so I had to order the Jack and Coke.

Let's just say the one time I ordered a me and Coke. it didn't go well. Yeties, increasingly, the cocktail curious are ordering the espresso martini. They're driving its sales. And if you look closer at that Nielsen data, people who ordered espresso martini are disproportionately not typical cocktail drinkers. The cocktail curious, they don't usually order a drink. They don't know many drinks, but they do want to up their drinking.

And the espresso martini is an easy way to do it. It's designed to be approachable with a blueprint of a reliance. Yeah, because you already enjoy the main ingredient. Coffee, we drink it every day. And you already recognize the format of the drink. Martini, that's a sophisticated way to drink something. And this is also a way more sophisticated option than the other upper downer drink. And what is that, Jack? The Red Bull and vodka, don't order that.

The espresso martini removes the friction. It's the top cocktail of 2022 because it's not just a cocktail. It's a gateway product, helping usher the masses into fancy cocktails. For our second story, college football is borrowing a strategy from Disney. They're launching a cinematic football universe. But the risk is that it borrows from college basketball and suffers dilution. Jack, let's turn to the whiteboard over here. The X's and O's college football playoffs just got set this weekend, who you got.

All right, we got Georgia versus Ohio State on the one side. Michigan versus TCU on the other side. We're probably going to end up with Michigan versus Georgia. again, go blue, Wolverines win. I think what you're missing here, Jack, though, is that we already have the winner of best mascot, which goes to the TCU horned frogs. Most unusual scary mascot, that's for sure. Texas Christian University has the only mascot that looks like a ninja turtle.

It was the only mascot raised by Splinter. But Yeties, who's actually the best college football team? That question actually goes back 153 years. We've been inconsistent in deciding who is the best college football team. Since 1869, we've been indecisive. Back when Big Skins were literally a pig's skin. Every other team sport decides the champion through a playoff, but not for Division I college football for some reason.

Jack, when you and I were kids, coaches and sports writers decided who was the champion in a poll for college football. When you and I became teens, a computer decided the best two college football teams, and then we had one BCS championship game. And then when you and I became adults, Jack, a computer picked four teams for the college football playoffs. And that's what we have now.

But last week, we learned that the college football playoffs is going to triple in two years. Yeties, here's the news. 12 teams, 12 teams will now compete in the nationwide college football playoff for the first time since ever. Going back to 1869. Recap, from 1860s.

69 to 1997, we had zero playoffs in Division I college football. But in 2024, we're going to have 12 teams, 11 games on a four-week-long college football tournament. In 1997, go blue. Michigan was the national champion with a 12-0 record. But starting in 2024, a team could go 17-0. The season is going to be that long. Get this. The college football championship season isn't going to end until January.

20th. That's the middle of like pond hockey season. That's the middle of almost golf season, Jack. Yeah, it is if you see an unnatural tradition busting change to anything, there's one, one, and only one reason why that thing is happening. Money.

It always comes down to money. We didn't get Star Wars episode 7, 8, and 9 because the story called for it, Nick. Yeah, Lucas films wasn't like, you know what? The integrity of the story here really needs a few more sequels. They resurrected the evil emperor to make more money. And that's what college football's doing too. Yeah, this expanded playoff format is expected to get this more than double. College football's

annual TV deal. That means college football would bring in twice as much as number two college basketball. Oh, Jack, I'm sorry, could you sprinkle on maybe, I don't know, a little more context on this thing on a Hail Mary pass? With the playoff, college football is expected to bring $2 billion a year in TV revenue, which makes it half as valuable as the NBA. Jack and I are looking at the playbook here and college football looks more like a pro sports league than a college sports league. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in football? When you stretch out a franchise, you risk dilution. Yet he's Jack and I noticed that what's happening to college football right now is the same thing that happened to Marvel Comics and Star Wars with Disney. Yeah, we've got ourselves a cinematic football universe coming.

in two years. The NCAA is kind of giving people what they want. You know, more games, more stuff to cheer, more stuff to watch. But the risk of this big move by the NCAA is dilution. The risk that college football gets stretched so wide. Fans lose intensity of their love. Like what happened with college basketball. No one watches the regular season anymore because it's all about March madness in the big tournament at the end. Or just like Star Wars, there's so many spin-off movies these days. Love for Obi-1 is not as strong. College. football is getting stretched out by another month to make more money. And whether it's quarterbacks or Jedi's, the risk is dilution.

Now, a word about our sponsor, Robin Hood. You know, honestly, your salad, it says so much about you. Nick, you like to blaze your own trail at the salad bar. I'm ordering a salad. I go off menu, man, like a combo of kale and croutons that has never been made before. Me? I'm not reinventing the wheel. I like to go classic.

Sweet green thinks it's a good combo. Jack's not going to change that. Kind of like investing strategies. Someone to build a custom portfolio of stocks, crypto, and options. Others don't want to reinvent. Just give me the most standard ETF. Whether you're tweaking your one-of-a-kind portfolio every day

or prefer a more hands-off approach, Robin Hood has the tools. If you're not investing on Robin Hood yet, to get started, go to robin hood.com slash T-Boy to choose your free stock. That's robinette.com slash T-B-O-I. Limitations apply. Stocks offered by Robin Hood Financial LLC, member S-I-P-C. Crypto-O-O-O-O-H.

offered through Robin Hood. All investments involve risk. By the way, this podcast is not owned or part of Robin Hood, and we are not employees of Robin Hood. For our third and final story, Owens Corning, just sent shareholders a birthday check and a Christmas present all at once. Two huge accidents have made Owens Corning part of the climate solution. Okay, so Jack, you and I have got a lot of a lot of lists going on, a lot of list going on. Maybe my favorite list of ours right now. Here it is, here it is.

our list of accidental inventions. The first one, fire. Yeah, the cavemen who invented fire. They didn't invent fire. That was in total accident. Let's hope it was a fortunate accident. He didn't light himself on fire, you know what I mean? Bob, you got to feel this thing.

It's incredible. Another incredible accidental invention, the slinky. Another incredible accidental invention, Jack, the Post-it note. How about Play-Doh? How about the espresso martini? Oh, yeah. I heard a bartender fell into a coffee machine. Boom.

Espresso martini. Yeties, another invention that was invented by accident is the insulation that keeps your home warm right now. And that insulation is the core business of Owens Corning, an $8 billion fortune 500 insulation company. A hundred years ago, Owens Corning was in the glass business doing bottles for whiskey, beer, and wine. But then Prohibition literally prohibition.

literally prohibited their biggest client, the booze industry. They were still selling to the milk industry. They were, they were good point. But the milk industry wasn't big enough. Basically, Owens Corning had to pivot in order to survive. So they took all the glass bottles no longer going to booze companies and put it in walls instead because the glass works for insulation too. Boom, they just invented accidentally a new thing.

They invented insulation. Now, today, their $10 billion a year business stuffs glass-based insulation. insulation into the walls of your home. And the other half of their business is shingles. They're doing that on your roof to keep your condo dry. So this company is basically building the jacket and the raincoat for America's homes. Now yeties, here's what Jack and I find fascinating about this story. The housing market, which is Owen's core business, is doing terribly right now. But Owens Corning isn't doing terribly. Yeah, Owens Corning stock is already outperforming the rest of the market by 17% this year. The CEO thinks their stock is too cheap, so they announced a share buyback of 10 million shares.

And then Jack and I noticed that they boosted their cash dividend the amount they pay out to shareholders by a whopping 50%. So shareholders are getting a birthday check and a Christmas present, even though the housing market is frozen right now. This is what we could not understand at first. People are not buying and they are not selling homes because of mortgage rates are too high and there's economic uncertainty. Fortunately for Owens Corning, though, people are still putting money. into their existing home. That's the key. You're upgrading here.

You're insulating there. Maybe a new roof right now. Let's get this in here, people. We're seeing a lot of revenge renovations happening in this real estate market. Revenge renovating. Because if you can't be with the home you love, honey, love the home you're with. By insulating the attic. By finally insulating the basement.

By sticking some glass into those walls. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Owen Corning? Changing your home's climate changes climate change. Yeties, get this. Combined, the heating and cooling of your home and your office is actually your biggest carbon footprint. According to the Department of Energy, up to 40% of our greenhouse gas comes from keeping our buildings warm in the winter and cool in the summer. So, Jack, what you and I are saying here is that once again, Owens Corning has succeeded totally by accident. Yeah.

Their original value proposition to customers, It was save money on your energy bill through insulation. But their new value proposition is this. Save the planet through insulation. Their marketing team pivoted their message from save money to save the planet and sustainability. It's another pivot because changing your home's climate changes climate change. Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us for T-Boy Tuesday? Orders for espresso martinis at the bar this year quadrupled.

It's not just a cocktail. Well, this is a gateway product. For our second story, college football has jumped from no playoffs to two teams to four teams and soon 12 teams. Stretching college football risks diluting it, just like Yoda warned us. And our third and final story is Owens Corning. They're a down jacket and a Gortex shell, but for your home. Because changing your home's climate changes climate change. Now, time for the best fact yet, this one whipped up by Jack and me for all the eddies out there.

We told you just a few minutes ago in the intro about the Santa surge, the reindeer rally. The reindeer rally. How stocks tend to go up over the holidays, not too shabby. We figured we'd explain why that phenomenon happens. And the short answer, we don't know. Now, no one actually really knows. It's really hard to explain market movements in the whole market. But there are some theories.

For example, one theory is that people get the bonus check at the end of the year and then put that money in the stock market. Or fund managers go on vacation and click buy before. before they fly out the Florida. Or it might just be New Year's optimism. Or maybe you're buying some stocks after getting that check from Grandma. Hopefully it's a big check. There's no full, clear reason that explains the reindeer rally phenomenon.

Which kind of makes the Santa rally like Santa himself. You have to believe in the rally to see the rally. And the best way to spread Christmas cheer is to sing loud for all to hear. Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. And to all a good night. And before we go, happy 190th birthday to Jonathan the Tortoise, a giant turtle living in the Seychelles Islands. It's not a race, Jonathan. It's a marathon. Jonathan is 190 and the oldest living land animal on Earth.

And happy birthday to little Teddy Panzer down in Montclair, New Jersey. And a happy belated birthday to Prasad down in Orlando, Florida. And happy 11th birthday to Charlie Vittivik in Duluth, Minnesota. And Katie Sosa is turning 25 in Boston, just outside Boston. Happy 27 years old to Nathan Duval in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. And Leroy Day is turning 29 down in the boogie down Bronx. Happy one month on this planet Earth to Yulin William Song in Jersey City. This is Jack. I own stock of Disney, and Nick and I both own stock of Spotify and Robin Hood.

Now a word about our sponsor, Robin Hood. Okay, so Jack and I both worked in. finance for a while. And we know the six-monitor Bloomberg jockey with charts, numbers, balances, and more charts. They got coffees in both hands while they're executing some complex trade on a soybean future. Well, we're not trying to impress with our mission control trading center. Just give us an app, please. Robin Hood with its mobile first and intuitive design, it lets you trade with just a few quick taps on their app. And even if things still don't seem easy, Robin Hood has your back 24-7 with its live and robust customer support.

If you're not investing on Robin Hood yet, to get started, go to Robin Hood. com slash t-boy and choose your free stock that's robinood.com slash tbo i limitations apply robin hood financial l l-lc member sipc all investments involved for us by by by the way this podcast is not owned by or part of robin hood and we are not employees of robin hood