The Best One Yet - 🍑 “Colonoscopy Stock Market” — BTS trade war drama. Versace’s Prada acquisition. A Colon econ lesson.

Episode Date: April 11, 2025

Yesterday we covered the trade war pause… today the behind-the-scenes Trump drama.Versace was just sold to its Italian cousin Prada at ½ price… because time kills all deals.Nick just got his 1st colonoscopy… so Jack found our fave economics lesson in the exam.Plus, Google is now paying AI engineers to do nothing… no joke. $CPRI $PRDSY $SPYWant more business storytelling from us? Check out the latest episode of our new weekly deepdive show: The untold origin story of… Peeps 🐣Subscribe to The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks to listen.“The Best Idea Yet”: The untold origin stories of the products you’re obsessed with — From the McDonald’s Happy Meal to Birkenstock’s sandal to Nintendo’s Susper Mario Brothers to Sriracha. New 45-minute episodes drop weekly.—-----------------------------------------------------Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Friday the real Friday. April 11th and today's pod. It's the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Yeties, remember when stocks rebounded and the S&P searched 10% on Wednesday?

Well, scratch all that. Because stocks reversed course yesterday, the S&P 500 fell 4%. I mean, Jack, we even seen back and forth swings like that since we like first got into finance after the Great Recession, right? What? It's whiplash, Nick. Not since Hands Across America. Jack, three stories for today's show. What do we got on the pod? For our first story. Yesterday, we told you all about the 90-day trade war pause. It was a huge policy reversal. So today, we'll reveal all the drama that went down behind the scenes over at the White House.

For our second story, it's Versace. Or is it pronounced Versace? Either way, Versailles just sold their dramatic Italian fashion brand to their cousin Prada. But Versace, not Versaise, sold. at half the price because time kills deals. And our third and final story. This very morning, Nick got a colonoscopy. True story. It's a 36-hour butt procedure, and he passed it with flying colors. So Jack and I did what we do best.

We found an economic lesson in that colonoscopy. Yes, we did. We kept digging and we found it, baby. But yet is, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Whoa, what a mix of stories to go into the weekend with. We just saw a headline on Business Insider. And it was so wild we promoted the story to the top of the pod. This is how competitive the battle for tech talent is over in Silicon Valley these days.

Here was the headline. Google is allegedly paying AI staffers to do nothing for a year rather than join their rivals. Let me repeat that. Google will pay talented AI engineers their $300,000 salary just to not work for the competition. Basically, they will pay you handsomely to do nothing for Google. As long as you do nothing for OECD. open AI. Basically, this is a non-compete clause that lasts a whole year in a big way. But here's the problem. One year in AI, that's like a lifetime. Totally. That is how fast the pace of AI is accelerating.

And that's how scared Google is that some other company is going to get the advantage. Jack, could you just sprinkle on some contacts? What's like a good analogy here? This would be like if Aaron Judge went into Hal Steinbrenner's office and said, I'm thinking about playing for the Mets. Okay, so Jack, what would the Yankees do? They'd say, yeah, don't play for the Mets. We'll actually give you your full salary just to not play for the Mets. We'll pay you $40 million to do nothing for the Yankees, just don't pay for the Mets. So, Nick, can we add it all up? Yes, we can, Jack.

Google is paying these employees something to do nothing, or anything with a competitor's thing. And if you violate that, Google will sue you for everything. And we've never seen anything like this thing. Couldn't it put it better check. Happy Friday, Yannies, let's get to the three stories. Let's see them, babe. 15 years before this song, two boys from the next, North East met in the dorm.

They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. Our first story. Today, we'll share with you the behind-the-scenes details of who got Trump to stand. down on the trade war. Spoiler, he listened to the Wall Streeters, not the populace. Because the stock market represents America's wealth, but the bond market represents America's power. Yeties, we'll let that sink in for a minute. But first, President Trump is the final decider on what executive orders get his huge, sharpie-penned signature. But he's influenced

by his cabinet, by media personalities, and by CEOs. So, Jack and I are now looking at the different factions within Trump's orbit that got him to stand down this week. We're looking at the people who got him to blink on the trade war. So, Jack, let's kick it off. Can you begin by sprinkling on some context, please? Trump's gut has been telling him for 10 years that America is getting screwed when it comes to trade. And he loves tariffs because they give him the ultimate unilateral power to change things

in the economy without congressional approval. Those instincts were backed up intellectually by two populaceous. advisors. Yes, they were. Peter Navarro and Steve Bannon. Navarro and Bannon, two guys who are both so loyal to Trump, they actually served prison time rather than cooperate with congressional investigations. And both of those men believe that trade is inherently a zero-sum game. A zero-sum game. Jack, can you explain that one for a second? They believe, for example, if a Chinese person is making an iPhone, then that Chinese person took an American's job. That is zero-sum. As one gets something, the other loses something. Economists, on the other hand, think trade is a positive sum.

game. We all win. So Trump's Liberation Day tariffs that hit earlier this week, they had these two guys' fingerprints all over them. But on the other side of the Oval Office was the techies. Specifically, Elon Musk vocally opposed to everything those two guys were saying about the trade war. Now, there's a couple of reasons why Elon is pro-trade. First, China holds huge sway on his business, as China could shut down Tesla's biggest, most productive factory in a snap. Also, Jack, I thought this was an interesting point we were discussing. Elon's a workaholic, and he kind of admires that Chinese factory workers

are workaholics, too. I don't think he kind of admires it. He loves the work ethic of his Chinese factory workers. So, added all up, and Elon opposed all those tariffs that Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro were pushing. He even publicly insulted Peter Navarro in a back-and-forth

Twitter spat all week. We jumped in T-boy style? The insults were flying, like, the real housewives of the White House. We thought someone was going to flip the resolute desk. But it wasn't Elon's opposition who got Trump to stand down and pause most of his tariffs. And no, no, no, no, no, this is what we found fascinating. It was actually two fellow New York-born financial billionaires, Bill Ackman and Jamie Diamond. It was the two six-foot men in finance who got Trump to stand down.

Who also have blue eyes and also have trust funds. Of all of those who spoke out against the trade war, Ackman and Diamond caused Trump to blink. Because Ackman and Diamond, these two New York financiers, they gave Trump some critical Wall Street perspective. And Jack, what did they tell them specifically? They told him what was happening in the bond market. The bond markets.

So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies following the trade war drama? The stock market represents America's wealth. But the bond market represents America's power. Yeties, for 80 years, the United States dollar has been the world's reserve currency. Everyone wants it. It's in high demand. And our U.S. government debt has been the world's financial. safe haven. Everyone wants to invest in it across the world. So those two things, Jack and I call that

our financial soft power. But here's the key. Last week, investors sold more U.S. bonds than any week in 24 years. In other words, last week was the worst week for our financial soft power in 24 years. Yeah, listen to these examples. First, financial firms sold bonds to cover their stock losses happening all week. Even worse, though, international investors across the world, sold bonds to divest from the United States. Deutsche Bank saw all of that and said this wild line. The market has lost faith in U.S. assets. Bill Ackman and Jamie Diamond pointed to the falling bond market,

and they told Trump, that's what you should fear. Because the stock market represents America's wealth, but the bond market represents America's power. For our second story, yesterday, we saw the biggest deal in Italian fashion since Zoolander. Prada is buying Versace for $1.4 billion. But inside this deal is the most important rule for negotiation. Now, yet, he's in order for us to tell the tale of this deal,

we're going to go back in history 165 years, when Giuseppe Garibaldi, United Sicily, Naples, Milan, Rome, Venice, and all those Italian kingdoms into one country. He's basically the founding father of Italia. Yes, he is. Italy was unified and a nation was born. Oh, 165 years later, Italy's... greatest assets are unified once again. Prada is acquiring Versace for $1.4 billion.

They thought they were ridiculously, ridiculously good-looking. Now, stock in America's Michael Coors fell 10% on the news. Yeah, yeah. Because they're selling Versace and they're selling Versace at half the price they bought it seven years ago. But this news shocked even Mugatu. And why is that, Jack? Prada and Versacea are aesthetically opposite of each other. Versace, you know, their style is more bold.

The loud, energetic, Jack. Ornate Baroque designs. The kind of thing that gets you in the New York Times after you flash it on the red carpet. Prada, on the other hand, they're more of like a simple, quiet style. Stealth wealth. Like a logo-free suit that Kendall Roy might wear in succession. If you know, you know. But there was some drama here. Wasn't there, Jack? And the drama came directly from Versace's family. Yeah, literally, Donatella Versace, she quit her very own namesake company just last month. She said she was sick of working for American Michael Coors. But also, there was a strategic mistake here made by the whole Versace company. They stopped caring about one overlooked customer. Versace basically shut down their entry-level products. They ignored their entry-level

customers. Luxury companies let aspirational customers reach the first rung of the luxury ladder with some lower-priced goods. Jack, let's walk into a Versace store metaphorically here. What would this look like an entry-level customer? One of those red carpet sculpture dresses I was telling you about? They sounded lovely. They started like $2,000. But Versace keeps one dress available at a $500 price point. Maybe has a few fewer features on it.

It's a dress. It's not a gown situation. Here's the idea. If you can get a piece of Versace at the age of 25 with that $500 dress, you'll start splurging on Versace by the time you have more money when you're 35. But here's the problem. Three years ago, Versacee got rid of its entry-level line. And they lost more than they realized with that decision.

Because the result, without a new generation of young customers buying entry-level Versace, Versace sales have been falling. That's why Prada was able to scoop up Versacee for half of its price tag from just seven years ago. I think it was on the sale rack and made well. So, Jack, what is this a takeaway for ants? What is the takeaway for our buddies over at Versace? Time kills deals. Time kills deals.

Yeah, it is the greatest risk to a deal's price or a deal not getting done. It's one word, time. Talks for this deal probably started a year ago. And we've watched the prospects for the deal getting done go worse and worse and worse as time went on. First, we had the luxury slowdown last year. And then we got the trade war this year. And the value of Versace, it's been falling ever since. Five years ago, Versace was worth $2.2 billion.

But now it's worth just $1.4. Just this week, Prada reportedly negotiated a $200 million discount on the deal because of the trade war flare-up. We bet Versace would have sold for a much higher price if they could have got the deal closed one year ago. Yeah, and Jack, I know that because we've actually had a huge deal almost canceled for the same kind of reason. One week after we signed the acquisition papers to sell our first company to Robin Hood, Robin Hood had a big PR crisis. Yeah, and like if our deal had closed one month later, it wouldn't have closed. Like, this would have prevented the deal from happening because too much time would have passed. Robin O'Nob would not have closed the deal with us in the middle of that PR crisis.

It's the first thing we sought of with this Versace's story. Sebasti's Versace, yeah, they weren't killed by the delay, but they were definitely injured by it. Because the biggest risk to a deal getting done, not just a corporate acquisition deal, but any deal you find yourself in, the biggest risk is time. Time kills deals. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story. to send you into the weekend. Earlier this morning, I actually had my first ever colonoscopy. And we realized this colon cancer detecting procedure is actually connected to our favorite economic

principle. That's right. We're going to connect the colonoscopy to our favorite rule of economics. But Bessies, earlier this morning, I was actually one of the most unique days of my life. And why is that, Jack? You got what you keep calling your first colonoscopy. Well, it was my best colonoscopy, Jack. It was my best one. Yeah, this is the procedure where a doctor goes up in there to check the signs to make sure you don't have colon cancer. It's awkward. It's uncomfortable. It is comically like the concept in a South Park script. You kind of just got to roll with it and laugh with it because it's really wild.

Nick, it happened like eight hours ago. So why don't you walk us through how it went down? So, Jack, I could not consume any solid food for an entire day, just clear liquid yesterday. And then I had to drink a special prescribed concoction at 5 p.m. to flush me out for the evening. They want your colon to be clean, right? Yes, yeah, yeah. So I actually also had to wake up at two in the morning

to drink more of that secret liquid, which flushed me out again for the next few hours. So you didn't get great sleep. Oh, no, no. And then at 5 a.m., I walked to the hospital. It was a couple blocks away. 6.30 a.m. I was out cold on the table. Yep.

By 8 a.m. I was finished. Molly picked me up. By 9 a.m., I was on the phone with you preparing for this podcast. I can't believe the hospital was open so early. I know. It was really wild. Well, like, despite, the 36-hour fast, the whole night in the bathroom, camera in my butt. I honestly, I could not be happier right now, Jack. To be clear, it wasn't a painful procedure, right? No, no. You know, I was put under for the

30-minute procedure and the scope that they put in you is soft, slippery, you don't even know. Basically, glad's right in. Yeah, actually, the doctor asked me right before she put me out what food I was going to celebrate with after, and I was like, the burger at spruce, and then, boom, I woke up and the procedure was over. That was it. It's like you woke up from a dream. Yeah, that was it. And the doctor said they didn't see any gross or pops to be worried about, right? Yeah, a clean bill of colorectal health. But, anyways, we will tie this back to economics, we promised.

Because the first thought I had on the table was a moment of clarity. I was like, oh, my God, the stock market basically had a colonoscopy this week, too. I had tension, fear, and a lot of buildup prior to the procedure. So did investors on Monday. Wall Street was nervous. And then I got flushed out. So did stocks. They felt 20% from their all-time highs.

I liquidated my intestines, literally. Investors liquidated their portfolios. And then markets bounced back a bit, felt better. And so did I, after the 20-minute procedure, I'm recording the podcast. Okay, great work. Again, we do have to tie this even further to economics. And Jack and I have an idea. Basically, Eddie's, I was actually really young to get a colonoscopy.

Nixon is 30s, but doctors pretty much make you wait until you're in your 40s to get one. Yeah. especially if you want it to be insured by health insurance. But I had a family history of polyps in their colon, so I begged my insurance company. I actually called them multiple times and demanded it. And they finally approved it? Yeah, they did. Which leads to these numbers.

You're supposed to get a screening in your 40s, but only one out of seven Americans actually get a colonoscopy in their 40s. We repeat, only one out of seven people in their 40s right now have done a colonoscopy. Maybe one of them is you, and you should probably get one. because tens of thousands of new cancer cases could have been caught so early if more people had gotten colonoscopies. And Jack and I were talking, and we think there's actually an economic principle

we know and we love that can fix that problem. And to be clear, this isn't an ad for the colonoscopy industry. No. I'm just grateful that Nick told this story on the pod. Yeah, I've actually got a picture. You want to see it? No. Okay, okay, I do a picture.

So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies curious about economics? You don't have to make people do something. You just have to nudge them. It's the Nudge Rule. Yeti's Chicago economics professors, Richard Toller and Cass Sunstein, wrote an econ theory on how to get people to make better decisions without restricting their freedom of choice. Their economic secret was the Nudge. The Nudge.

The Nudge is when you give people the same options, but tweak the context so they reach a different decision. We actually mentioned the Nudge last year in a story on 401Ks, the retirement savings account. If you make opting into a retirement program the default for employees, more employees end up doing it. That's an economic nudge. Instead of giving people two choices and being indifferent, use the default choice to nudge people to the better option. And the same could be applied to a colonoscopy. Totally. Which the vast majority of Americans don't get. And now, Bessies, we are not saying everyone should default to having a colonoscopy,

but we're saying there should be a discussion with your doctor that definitely happens at 40. that should be the default. Instead of waiting for symptoms for you to opt in and get a colonoscopy, a call from your doctor on your 40th birthday should be the default. And that is why the colonoscopy reminds us of our favorite economic principle. The nudge. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday? It wasn't the populists or the techies who got Trump to pause his trade war.

It was the Wall Street guys. Because the stock market represents America's wealth, but the bond market represents America's power. For our second story, Prada is acquiring Versace for $1.4 billion, probably a disappointing price for the Versace family. Because time kills deals. And our third and final story, Nick's colonoscopy went well. Nothing to be concerned about. We're happy and proud of it. It reminds us of an economic trick.

The Nudge. Give people a choice, but nudge them to the best choice. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, trade war almanac day nine. Jack and I been keeping track for you. Here's an update from the tariff trenches. On Thursday, Trump escalated his tariffs on China to 145%.

Every other country in the world, they're getting a 10% tariff during this 90-day pause. But the higher 25% tariffs remain in place for cars and steel. And the EU paused their retaliatory tariffs on the United States for 90 days as well. Second, yesterday we got the inflation report for the month of March. The inflation report, the celebrity of econ reports. Prices actually fell across the economy in March compared to February. And core inflation was the lowest in four years. Even egg prices have come way down.

Now, economists don't expect tariffs to show up in prices until June because companies bought in bulk to beat the tariffs. And finally, Universal Studios is building its first European theme park in England. Two years ago, rumors were swirling around the kingdom of Universal buying 600 acres, 60 minutes north of London. It was pretty obvious why a theme park company wanted 600 acres, but now it's official. England's newest theme park, I think its biggest theme park, will open in 20131 and expects 9 million visitors a year. The Hogwarts rides are going to have natural British accents. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one whipped up by my gastroenterologist this morning, Dr. Chalphiardis.

I love the colon takeover of today's episode. Yeah, right before they knocked me out, I asked them for the best fact yet, and here's what they told me. They told me about the Katie Couric effect. Katie Couric, the famous TV journalist, her husband sadly died of colon cancer in 1999. Well, what did Katie Kirk do? She did a colonoscopy live streamed on TV of her colon. On the Today Show, you could watch the camera colonoscopying Katie Couric. And what was the Katie Kirk effect of all that, Jack?

That year, there was a 20% increase in elective colonoscopies nationwide. The Katie Kirk effect. Yannies, you look fantastic over there. Jack, I'm sure you feel fantastic over there. I've got to get four liters of water right now. I feel, you know, I'll show you some pictures. Just hold on a second. I'll show you some pictures.

Yeties, drop down, give us five stars, rate and review the show. And check out the best idea yet. Our weekly show, this one is all about peeps. Nick, congrats. Let's celebrate the wins. And Yetis, we'll see you Monday. All right, throwing the picks up on YouTube. Here we go, yeah.

And before we go, a happy birthday to legendary Yeti, Ben Einstein, born in Los Angeles, but celebrating in San Francisco, home for dinner. And happy birthday to William Guillermo Warren. In San Francisco, this little boy is turning two. And Ruchika Shah in New York City's been listening for three years and celebrating the best birthday yet. And Rushita, we know we owe you two more birthday shoutouts,

and we got your back. Happy birthday to Amy Betros in Buffalo, New York, who's the best grandma yet. And Gwen Ryan in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania, stud in Polly Sye at Westchester University, and there she's celebrating the best birthday, yeah. Happy birthday to Kate Hartnett in Brooklyn, New York, who's celebrating with a pint of Hagen-Daz.

And a congratulgagement anniversary, Eve, to Jack and Alex, my co-host, never-year. No, not Eve. Seven years ago, I dropped out on one knee in Ann Arbor's Arboretum, and I proposed to Alex. I was very nervous. The ring was basically the most expensive thing I'd ever purchased. And so far, happily ever after.

And Jack is recreating it all tonight in the same outfit. Unreal. Amazing. Alex, so pumped for you. Congratulations. By the way, strike my so far. Let's just go with Happily Ever After. That's true.

And congratulations. See, Eddie's Drew and Vanessa Glapa, down in Austin, getting married, and Evan is officiating the best wedding yet. Happy birthday to a little. Elizabeth Carlson in Plymouth, Minnesota, who's celebrating with some sushi-grade sushi. Nogiri for Elizabeth, and Miranda Fairbanks is running a half marathon this weekend. You got this Miranda fueled by Goldfish. And congratulations to Adam Katzenbach, who's getting married in Chicago.

Adam, we're pumped for both you guys, celebrate the wins. And to anyone else, celebrate something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. Nick and I both owned ETFs of the S&P 500.