The Best One Yet - 🌚 “Eclipse Economy” — Solar Eclipse boom towns. Japan’s diaper downturn. And Facebook’s best product? Marketplace.

Episode Date: April 1, 2024

Looking for your Portfolio Life Partner? Sign up for TBOY Dating here:https://tinyurl.com/tboydatingThe total solar eclipse hits the US one week from today on April 8th — So we're looking at the financial impact on the Eclipse Boomtowns, from Texas to Maine. Japan’s largest diaper brand just made a shocking move: Switching from baby diapers to adult diapers — Japan is officially the oldest country in the world, but immigration is the anti-aging cream of economics.And Facebook’s most successful feature ever? It's Facebook Marketplace — with over a billion people buying something, It's bigger than Walmart, eBay, and even Amazon. And prep for the eclipse using NASA’s info here: https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/Subscribe to the best newsletter yet: tboypod.com/newsletterWant merch, a shoutout, or got TheBestFactYet? Go to: www.tboypod.comFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on YouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. Welcome back. It is Monday, April 1st. And today's pod is the best one yet. It's a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. All right, Jack, I got to ask, did you do the Reese's Easter egg?

Did you do the peeps this year? Which one was the winner? What did you do? You know that peanut butter plus chocolate is the magical combination I can't get enough of. You just can't beat it, so I think I know what you did. I mean, marshmallows kind of grossed me out. Like, what's in there? Chocolate covered peeps, that's the answer.

You got to merge the two. Jack, three stories for today's T-boy. What do we got? For our first story, one week from today, a total solar eclipse creates a path of totality across the United States. So Jack and I are looking at the economic impact of losing the sun for three minutes. For our second story, Facebook's most successful feature, it's not liking, poking, or friend. No, Facebook's most successful feature is Facebook Marketplace. Believe it.

So we're jumping in, T-boy. style. And our third and final story, Japan's largest diaper company, is making a dramatic pivot. From baby diapers to adult diapers. Jack and I are going to tell you why. Yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Amazing mix to kick off the week. Love the mix, Jack. Yeties, you may be in a dating recession right now. But besties, we are bullish on your dating potential. So Nick and I have good news. Abel. A-B-L-E. Always be launching everything. We're always launching. We're always launching something and Jack, what are we launching now? Our latest product is T-Boy dating. T-boy dating where you can find the best one yet. We are so excited to launch a dating app that matches you

based on the stocks you want. It's a dating feature that is literally going to connect you to oh, exactly who you want to be connected with. So you're going to swipe right if you own shares of the S&P 500. You're going to match if you own shares on Microsoft. We believe true love is finding the perfect portfolio partner. So Jack and I are creating a list of our listeners based on their holdings, based on your holdings. Now, Yeti's, the key to a successful relationship, it's the same as a successful investment. It's diversification, baby. She's all crypto, but he's fixed income. Danny's a date trader, but Debbie's a buying holder. Small cap guy meets large cap girl. That's how T-boy dating works. And Jack, how are we whipping up T-boy dating exactly, my friend? Here's what you got to do.

Tell us your top five stock holdings. Then Jack and I will match you with a complimentary investor. On T-Boy dating, instead of uploading picks, you upload ticks. Yeah, like your ticker symbols of the stocks you own. That's what we're matching. And then Nick and I are going to put all your names into a spreadsheet and connect you with a potential lover. No algorithm needed.

Jack and I are playing Cupid here and Wall Street is in on the fun. It's a labor of love that Nick and I are thrilled to conduct for you. Because Besties, love is a long-term hold. And dating should pay dividends. shouldn't it? So find your EBADdie. Find your market cap sugar mama. Or Jack, is it? Who's your Eva Daddy? Well, T-Boy dating app will tell you. And the best part about this, what is it, Jack? Connections made on T-boy dating end in diamond hands. Literally. Past performance is not indicative of future returns, but you will find the best one yet.

So yeties, join the waiting list for T-boy dating by clicking on the link in today's episode description. So click on the link in today's episode description to join the best one. Best One Yet Dating app. Because it's not R-O-I. It's R-O-U-S. Jack, let's match our three stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm.

They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. Start the show. Start the show.

First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, the total solar eclipse will introduce huge attention to parts of America. They usually go under the radar. The eclipse is once in a lifetime. Tour spending on that eclipse isn't. All right, Jack, checking the calendar is one week from today, Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. What are we going to see, man? It'll be like Zeus turned off the light switch.

Oh, to quote Bonnie Tyler, we're getting the total eclipse of the sun. The United States, Canada, and Mexico is going to experience three full minutes of a total solar eclipse. Zach and I are an astrologist, but we understand that the moon is going to pass directly between the Earth and the sun creating a ring of fire

around the moon's shadow. And if you're lucky enough that the skies are clear when the eclipse happens, it's going to go from a completely sunny day to complete darkness in an instant. Bugs, animals, deer

are going to be confused, wandering around the streets. Everyone's like, what is going on? Why is it dark out right now? College students are going to be doing whatever college students are during doing this moment like this. They're going to be lit figuratively. Now, according to NASA, the eclipse is going to hit American soil first in Texas at 2.30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

And then one hour later, the path of totality will have finished up way on the other side of the country in Maine. We're calling it the blackout tour. Starts in Dallas, then hits Little Rock, then Cleveland, then Buffalo, and then Burlington, Vermont. Across one hour next Monday, a strip of America is going to experience totality. Complete blockage of the sun. Although all 48 states will see some kind of partial eclipse in some way. Now look, Yetis, if you're going to look at the eclipse, don't look directly at the sun. Come on.

You got to use the special goggles. You got to wear the special goggles. Yeah, not even your sunglasses or even two pairs of layered sunglasses. That's not even safe. You could get blinded by this. So we'll drop a link to NASA's interactive maps so you can plan ahead and prepare your eyes. Thank you, Nick. I'm glad we said that. But yet he's here's what Jack and I found fascinating about this story.

The eclipse is creating a new thing that we're calling eclipse boom towns. In the path of totality, there will be unprecedented tourist events. There will be solar spending surges. Eddie's Airbnb just said that searches for Airbnb's in the path of totality increased 1,000% from last year. The path of totality is a huge economic moment. for places that just aren't used to getting any tourists at all. Let's jump in T-boy style and look at the numbers from the last eclipse in 2017. What do we see, Jack?

Wyoming, America's smallest state by population, got 260,000 visitors for that eclipse. All right, Jack, can you sprinkle on some population context for us over there? That's equal to half of the state's population. The state grew by 50% overnight, basically, and that brings in some money, doesn't it, man? $60 million of economic value in just one weekend for Wyoming. Yadis, it's not just Wyoming. With this eclipse, we're expecting tiny towns that never get visitors to have hipsters from Brooklyn popping up for the long weekend snagging Airbnbs. Yeah, Vermont, this brave little state, we are 600,000 strong normally, but we're expecting 200,000 visitors next week. Top the strategic maple reserves.

Did you hear what Rochester, New York has been doing? They've been planning for this total eclipse for 10 years. Rochester, the city, bought 500,000 pairs of goggles just to prepare for this event. Yeties, on Monday in the Eclipse boom towns we're talking about, the schools are closed. The office buildings are closed. Some towns are moving interstates to be one-directional, like north in both directions and then south in both directions to handle the traffic. Yeties, add it all up.

And the eclipse is the economic equivalent of multiple Taylor Swift concerts in one day, on one hour nationwide. But those concerts are happening in a town so small and has one traffic light and one postman that everyone knows by name. Larry, how are the kids? They're wonderful to watch in the eclipse. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies in the economic eclipse boom towns? Spending is contagious.

It's called the money multiplier effect. Now, yadies, we know what you're thinking here. You might be thinking, hey, nice, small towns in the path of totality are going to enjoy a one-off surge of spending. A nice little one-off economic boost for small town restaurants, their hotels, their shops, and their stores. Okay, but here's the economic lesson here. In economics, it's never just one-off because that Brooklyn hipster is going to spend money first at the gift shop. That means the gift shop owner, who's a local, has extra money in their pocket, and they're going to spend that money on a nice dinner out in town. Well, then the owner of that restaurant is going to then pay the waiter for that restaurant, and they're both going to end up buying something with their new income.

And around and around it goes. In economics, they call this the money multiplier effect. So, Basties, for small-town America, the eclipse boom, it isn't a one-off because spending, is contagious. It's called the money multiplier effect. For our second story, the most successful feature ever built by Facebook, get this, it's Facebook Marketplace. Here is how Facebook Marketplace became the biggest shopping destination in the world. All right, first, if we're going to kick out of this story, let's start with some context. Jack, what was that shocker we discovered about Facebook? Believe it or not, yet, he's, most American adults,

like you included, most of you still use Facebook. 68% of Americans are still using Facebook, according to Pew Research. Now, that's kind of shocking because you think of like your Aunt Linda posting pictures of a sunset and then angry posts about politics. Wait, another picture of the fireworks from the 4th of July in 2015. That's wonderful, Ann Edna. Well, here's what explains that paradox. That 68% of us still use Facebook.

It's one single sentence Jack and I discovered last week. I only use Facebook for Marketplace. I only use Facebook for Marketplace. Those are the words of 491 million people globally, myself included, according to a recent study by Capital One. Facebook Marketplace, it turns out, is the internet's garage sale, and it's happening everywhere. Gen Z loves it, even though they don't love Facebook. They won't admit it, but they got that lamp on Facebook Marketplace. But here's the most shocking hero statistic of that Capital One report.

an average month up to 1.3 billion people buy something on Facebook marketplace. We repeat, one out of six humans on earth, 1.3 billion people buy something on Facebook marketplace every single month. This means that Facebook is the biggest shopping destination in the world by far. 1.3 billion people. That's bigger than eBay, bigger than Walmart. That is even bigger than Amazon, Jack. And get this, 491 million people only have. have a Facebook account so that they can access Facebook Marketplace. They were literally only on Facebook so they can buy a dresser on Facebook Marketplace. Facebook Marketplace is now eight years old. It was launched in 2016 as a classic Zucking.

This is like obvious Zucking, isn't it, man? I mean, this is the first Zuck. Mark Zuckerberg saw what Craigslist was doing, and so he launched his own version, which was a copycat. But with much higher paid designers and engineers, Zuck was able to create a much better version of Craigslist that doesn't look like it'll kill you. Yeah. So just like Craigslist on Facebook Marketplace, it's a locally listed marketplace of secondhand things. And just like Craigslist on Facebook Marketplace, you can buy baby toys, clothing, dumbbells, lumber. A lot of lumber for some reason in Vermont's Facebook Marketplace. Cars, even houses on Facebook Marketplace. Now, Facebook doesn't take a cut of the transactions that happen on Facebook Marketplace. Which is a lot like Craigslist too. And also like Craigslist,

it's up to the buyer and the seller to meet up in person and hand off the goods and handle the money. Sounds like a drug deal the way I'm describing it. And also like Craigslist, someone will ping you, ask how much the armoire is, and then never contact you again. True. You'll get about 20 inquiries and then a lot of ghosting after that.

But yet, it's the key reason that people prefer Facebook marketplace to Craigslist. It's because Facebook really is a social network. So Jack, what's the takeaway for? Do I have five? They disappeared. I don't know. I'm not selling it. Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Facebook Marketplace? Facebook's surprise value isn't as a social media. It's as a social network.

Facebook Marketplace is shocking success. Highlight that social networks can be more valuable than social media. Facebook makes a lot of money with social media. Like a lot of people swipe through their Instagram feed and see a whole bunch of paid ads in there. But what you don't realize is how much money Facebook makes on Facebook. Facebook Marketplace where every fourth post, every fourth post is an ad. Craigslist offers the same thing as Facebook Marketplace without ads. So in theory, Craigslist should be better. But Facebook Marketplace provides some sense of safety and security to the user

because the buyers and sellers have names and Facebook accounts. If you're meeting up in someone's garage to pick up a Scots, you like that you at least have the person's Facebook account in case the deal goes bad. So yeah, it is Facebook and isn't social media. Facebook really is a social network. And Facebook Marketplace's success reminds us of that. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, Japan's largest diaper company just made a huge pivot.

From baby diapers to adult diapers. Japan's diaper drama. It's a wake-up call about our aging demographics. Jack, can we introduce to the podcast OG Holdings? Who is it, Jack? This is a 151-year-old conglomerate based in Japan. They're publicly traded on the stock market over in Tokyo. They sell paper.

They sell packaging. And they sell diapers. It's the largest diaper brand on the islands of Japan. It's like they're pamper's. If you got a new kiddo in Tokyo, you're not putting them in pamper. You are putting them in OG diapers. But here's the news. Oji is ending their baby diaper business.

But they're not ending their diaper business. Because OG is shifting all their diaper production to adult diapers only. We repeat. No more newborn baby diapers. only adult elderly diapers. But yet he's here's what Jack and I found fascinating about this story. This diaper decision is actually part of a much broader trend. It turns out adult diapers have been beating baby diapers in Japan for years.

Get this, OG's baby diaper sales fell from 700 million at their peak in 2001 to just 400 million last year. They almost fell by half. In fact, in 2011, adult diapers passed baby diaper sales in Japan. and it's only gotten a bigger difference since then. And that's because, according to the United Nations, Japan is officially the oldest country in the world. This diaper switcheroo happening in Japan, it's a wake-up call about Japan's baby bust.

Because Japan just had a record low number of babies. The number of newborns in Japan fell another 5% last year to an all-time low compared to their population. And Japan now has a record high number of seniors. Did this. One out of every three Japanese citizens is over the age of 65. One out of every three people is retired and not in the workforce. Now, Jack and I should point out there are a whole bunch of reasons for this baby bust in Japan.

Marriage rates are lower, which means fewer kids are going to get born. Costs living's higher, so it's more expensive to have kids right now. And more women are in the workforce, which kind of tends to fewer babies being born. Although the government has tried a bunch of incentives financially to spur more babies being born. And some of them are pretty creative and pretty lucrative, Jack. This one sounds pretty nice. Families that have kids receive $100 a month allowance per child. until that child is 18 years old.

Okay, Jack, that's nice, but I've got one that's even nicer. Get this, in Japan, college tuition is free for families with three kids or more. So if you have two kids, you have to put them through college. If you have three, all of them get a scholarship paid for by the government. But yet he's none of these solutions to Japan's baby buster working. So what do we think, Jack? There's another option that other countries have successfully used to offset their low birth rates. Feels like our takeaway.

So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in Japan? Immigration is the anti-aging cream of economics. Yet, it's not just Japan facing a baby bus population decline right now. Like China? China. Once the biggest country in the world, they're facing one too now. And so is nearly every developed economy in the world. The United States, Mexico, all of Europe, they're all having less than two kids on average per couple, which leads to a population decline. increasing the birth rate to over two, that's not the only remedy to reverse an aging population problem. The other remedy is immigration. Yeah, the U.S. birth rate has been below two each year since

2009, and yet, our population is growing and staying relatively young thanks to immigration. Yeah, there are other countries in the world that have high birth rates, and we are taking some of those people through immigration into our own country. On the other hand, Japan allows almost no immigration. Japan's prime minister recently said this. We're on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society because of our low birth rate and aging population. Well, the easiest remedy to that problem? It's immigration. Immigration. It's the anti-aging cream of economics.

Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us to kick off the week? Small towns in the path of totality are bracing for solar eclipse tourists next week. And all that spending isn't a one-off because of the money multiplier effect. For our second story, it's Facebook Marketplace. Facebook Marketplace is the biggest shopping destination in the world with 1.3 billion buyers every month. That's a reminder that Facebook's biggest strength isn't social media, it's social network. And our third and final story, Japan's top diaper company, is pivoting from baby diapers to adult diapers. Immigration. It is the anti-agion cream of economics.

But yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted guilty of fraud months ago, but he just received his sentence and what was it, Jack? On Thursday, Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison, and he has to pay $11 billion in a forfeiture. At the sentencing, the judge said he'd never saw a word of remorse for the lies and fraud that Sam Bankman-Feed committed, so he's getting 25 years. Second, the Washington Wizards and Washington Capitals, the basketball and hockey teams, they're going to stay in Washington, D.C., after all. The two teams struck a new deal to stay in D.C. until at least 2050 with $515 million of investment from the city.

The teams were going to move across the river to Virginia, but they're actually going to stay in the city now. And finally, we just finished the first three months of the year and the S&P 500 rose 11% to a fresh record. Hi, congratulations. The first quarter of 2024 was the best first quarter for the stock market in five years. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one is from our weekly Saturday newsletter, the best newsletter yet.

What do we whip up in this one? Jack. The Facebook poke. The poke was one of Facebook's first features dating all the way back to 2004. The poke actually existed before the news feed. It's like the OG feature. Nick, now what is a poke exactly? Like, how would you poke someone? I guess technically Jack, it is a digital equivalent of a charming but not quite creepy hug. I think it's more like a digital wink. It's like, I see you. I see you. Well, yet he's the poke never actually went away. It was just harder to find how to poke someone until recently. Facebook made a design change recently that makes poking. much more prominent on that platform. And get this, Facebook pokes are up by 13x in just the last month.

Facebook announced it themselves on threads. It's up 1,200%. That's a lot of poking. So yeties, poke our newsletter at tboypod.com slash newsletter. It's the best newsletter. Now, go poke the T-Boy pod Facebook account right now. But yet is, before we go, remember, Jack and I are bullish on your dating potential. That's why we launched T-Boy dating.

Today. Join the wait list by clicking the link in this episode description and we will add you to our master spreadsheet of love. Find your Ibid Daddy. Get your market cap Sugar Mama. Click the link in today's episode description. Jack and I are playing corporate Cupid and we'll see you in there. Find your best one yet. And before we go, a happy birthday to Yeti and YouTuber Miguel Stevenson who's celebrating down in Somerville, South Carolina with a 15th birthday. Happy birthday to Brent Kerr, celebrating on the big island of Hawaii. And Liv Golden is celebrating a birthday down in Florida with her puppy hatty and is coming to our live show in New York City. Happy birthday in Houston, Texas. And Bjorn Carlson is celebrating a birthday in Plymouth, Minnesota.

He's defrosting from the foot of snow that they just got dumped on. And Kendra Sinclair in Red Hook, New York, just renovated a hotel upstate. We'd love to know where it is, Kendra. Jack and I go upstate a bunch. Upstate! Upstate! Upstate! Upstate! And congratulations to Katrina Croft from Virginia, who's celebrating on maternity leave with their daughter Rudy.

And congratulations to Bestie Joe David Stark, who is lounging out for his first day of retirement in Iowa. And congratulations to Messia, who has an interesting HR move they're pulling right now. Yeah, Massia just moved into a new apartment in Zurich, Switzerland, which is right next to their boss's apartment. Pro tip, don't poke your boss. Oh, that's a definite note. This is Jack. I own stock of Amazon and Nick and I both own stock of Airbnb and ETFs of the S&P 500. It's like, I see you. I see you.