The Best One Yet - 🫦 “E.l.f. explains the Election” — Elf Beauty’s $3 win. Elon’s “TruthX” play. The Power of the word “We”.

Episode Date: November 8, 2024

If you want to understand the election, just look at Elf Beauty’s results… we explain the parallel.Elon is the big business winner of the election… we found how it could transform X.There is 1 powerful word to win any business or political discussion this weekend… It’s “we.”Plus, TGIFriday’s just declared bankruptcy… so it’s your last day for $50M in unused gift cards.$ELF $TSLA $LVMUYLooking for a long-form listen? Check out our new episode on… The Jeep 🚙: The car that saved the world. It’s our latest episode of The Best Idea Yet. Listen here: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks Subscribe to the newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter —-----------------------------------------------------GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick, this is Jack. It's Friday the real Friday, November 8th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Speaking of which, Jack, the three stories, they're so fantastic. How about we get right into it? What do you think, man? For our first story, elf beauty sales have grown 40% or more for eight straight quarters. And we think Elf Beauty's results explain the election results. For our second story, two years ago, Elon Musk dropped $44 billion to acquire Twitter. But this week, Elon got the biggest return possible power. So we're laying out where X could go next. Third and final story, what do we got, Jack? And our third and final story, there is one powerful word to help you in any business or political discussion that you have this weekend.

And the one powerful word you got to know is, we. We. We. Has nothing to do with Adam Newman or Wework. Not WeWork, but it's we. We'll explain. But Yetis, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. We will explain. Fantastic mix of stories, Jack. Love the mix today. It was a big week, wasn't it? The New York City Marathon, daylight savings, and a presidential election.

I'm Schwitzen over here. Jack, you're feeling a lot of emotions and you're not feeling a lot of sleep these days. So you may be ending the week with a drink or two or three. Maybe five. Yeties, you may be celebrating what happened this week or you may be commiserating what happened this week. way, Nick and I have a warning for you. A warning if you have a gift card to TGI Friday's restaurants. Because get this. TGI Fridays has $50 million in unused gift cards. But just this week, TGI Fridays declared bankruptcy. Awkward. TGR Fridays, the restaurant chain that's all about drinking on Fridays. Jack, can you sprinkle on a little more context for us? They basically invented the Friday Happy Hour, right? Happy Hour? That's TGI Fridays. It's, it's

part of their business model. But now that they're going bankrupt, what's going to happen to those $50 million in unused gift cards? Well, Jack, honestly, nobody knows. Like, nobody, the lawyers don't even know. Literally, the bankruptcy judge is going to have to decide what happens to your gift card. She doesn't even know what she's going to do about this. TGI Fridays has only $5 million in cash on hand, so they can't handle the $50 million of gift cards. Jack and I did the math on it. Five million in cash can't afford the $50 million in the gift cards. So our advice? Yeah, first come, first served. Besties, it could be your last day to cash in on that $15

margarita card. So, Yeties, we hope you can relax after a big, wild, emotional, and intense week. And if you got a TGIF gift card, use it or lose it. Use it or lose it. Jack, it's the Friday, the real Friday. Let's hit our three fantastic stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm.

They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a known. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, Elf Beauty Cosmetics, just saw their sales surge 40%. If you want to understand the 2024 election, Elf Beauty helps explain it. Now, yeah, it is one of the top 10 stocks of the last five years. It wasn't just Nvidia and a whole bunch of AI. Yeah, what was it, Jack? Elf Beauty. The budget beauty brand is glowing right now.

Get this, Elf Beauty, their stock jumped another 11% yesterday. They're now worth $7 billion. That's more than left. The first time we covered them on our pod, they were worth $1 billion. Now they're worth seven. Now, now I have these regret feelings, Jack. Yeah, so do I. I almost bought it.

For Yeti's, Elf Beauty! They've actually got one of the great streaks on Wall Street. For the eighth quarter in a row, sales rose 40% compared to the year before. Mirror, mirror on the wall, which makeup stock outperformed them all? Elf Beauty did, because they have legitimized the dupe economy. Elf is basically the Kirkland brand of cosmetics. Glossier Boybrow is jealous, because if Revlon launches a $50 eye cream, then elf whips up a $15 version faster than a Kardashian. They're the dupe of cosmetics. But Yeties, there was a bigger surprise in Elf's earnings. And what was it, Jack?

Elf has managed to cross the generational chasm. Oh, the generational chasm. Now, Jack, we should point out, you do have a 42-step nighttime skincare routine, don't you? So you can help us answer the next couple questions, I believe. I have an equally long morning skincare routine. Thank you very much. This is good to know and new information for me. Still processing. Yeti's makeup, it is a fragmented industry by age, isn't it, Jack? You're not using the same brow liner as your kids, your cousin, or your mom are. You each have a different brand. But Elf has managed to become multi-generational. Get this.

Elf says that they're the number one makeup brand for Gen Alpha, for Gen Z, and for millennials. And what's another way we could put this man? Elf is the top-selling makeup brand for any American under the age of 45. Even Wilder Basties, it's not just Elf's Holy Grail legendary moisturizer that's number one. Elf is number one in 16 different categories. Eyes, lips, and face. Elf is crushing it on all three. Spoiler, that's what Elf stands for.

So if you're out on a date tonight, odds are your wingwoman is elf. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Elf? Elf Beauty helps explain the 2024 election results. Hear us out on this one, Yendies. For years, Elf Beauty's growth was slow. But then in 2022, something big changed. In 2022, Elf went from 6% sales growth to 60% sales growth.

In fact, over the last two years, Elf's revenue is growing on average 60% every single quarter. So what changed in 2022? What was it, Jack? It was inflation. 2022 is when prices started soaring across our economy. And that's when suddenly Elf's very affordable cosmetics became the most popular for everyone under 45. Elf's $3.00 lipstick that we covered three years ago, it's still $3.

Yeah. Meanwhile, Revlon and L'Oreal, their lipstick prices have gone up and up and up. In fact, you won't find Elf Beauty in Sephora in the middle of a big city. They're not a coastal elite lipcloth brand. Elf, in fact, just struck a deal with Dollar General because Dollar General has 80% of their stores in rural America.

So Yeties, we said this was the grocery receipt election. Prices were the priority for most Americans in the ballot box. So the way Jack and I see it, Elf Beauty, it captured. exactly that. Elf was an inflation buster and consumers loved him for it. For our second story, the biggest business winner of this election was Elon, especially for X. Here's how Elon Musk could turn his social media platform into Fox News, but for the next generation. Now yet he's back in 2022, there was one deal that was widely seen as one of the worst acquisitions ever. The deal was Elon acquiring Twitter for $44 billion. It was seen as bad because once Elon acts Twitter's content

moderation, brands didn't want to advertise there, and so revenue started falling. And then his subscription version, $8 a month for Twitter Blue, never caught on. So for the last two years, X's business has kind of looked bad. That's why privately held stock in X is believed to have lost 78% of its value. So add it all up and that $44 billion deal that Elon did looked like a clear financial loss for him personally. But now, because Trump has won re-election, that Twitter investment has turned into a gain for all his other businesses. One way Jack and I were trying to understand this was to put it in a business context, and basically Twitter turned out to be a loss leader for Elon. It's a loss leader, a huge cost, but that's creating wealth elsewhere. Companies do it,

and Elon basically did it for himself, because Elon turned X into a billboard for the Trump campaign. And now that Trump won, Elon is trying to cash in with favors from the future president. And one big way where we could see that is with X. We know that Elon has always wanted X to become a super app, one app to do everything. So first, Elon could launch crypto trading on X and start challenging Coinbase and Robin Hood when it comes to Bitcoin. X is already the platform of choice for crypto bulls. It's where they hang out during the day. So then Elon could steer crypto regulation to benefit trading on his app. Another thing Elon could do is he could launch podcasting on X.

After all, this was the podcast election, especially on the right. Like Jack, he could convince Joe Rogan and other right-leaning shows to just ditch big tech and stop doing their podcast there. Forget Apple, Spotify, and YouTube. Post your pods on X and join the Right Revolution. Where Elon would allow listeners to maybe tip their favorite shows, possibly in crypto, and do all of that on X. The final thing Elon could do with X is merge it with Truth Social.

Yeah, because Jack and I were talking about this, and it is kind of strange that Trump posts on a platform that is in competition with his favorite businessman's platform. After all, both X and Truth do the same thing. They might as well enjoy network effects by merging instead of competing. So, Jack, Elon owns SpaceX. He could co-own TruthX with Trump. And each of those services that we just described would benefit the other, which is basically the definition of a super app, which is what you.

What Elon said, he always wanted to create. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at X? Rupert Murdoch is out. Elon Musk is in. Yeties, it's time to add a new title to Elon's LinkedIn resume, and that title is conservative media mogul. Rupert Murdoch shaped conservative thinking for decades with his ownership of Fox News.

Logan Roy did the same thing until his son messed it up, but that's a different story. Well, now Elon Musk is doing the same thing by Amplifference. find conservative talking points on X. Fox News, it's losing its relevance because cable has lost its relevance, right, Jack? That's why X can be the Fox News of the next generation. So add it all up and buying Twitter, yeah, that was a bad financial investment at first, but it made Elon a powerful media mogul. That's why we're saying today, Rupert Murdoch is out, Elon Musk is in. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, there is a secret word that will get people to listen to you instead of fight with you. And that word is we.

We is a secret superpower. And we've got the data to prove it. Now, yet is Jack and I don't know your schedules, but we're pretty sure this weekend, you're going to beat a brunch. And honestly, political conversations are going to be unavoidable. And that'll kick up a notch or two at Thanksgiving when Uncle Ken is there. Your buddy Tim has got some hot takes. Well, we discussed, that there are studies about the most effective way for you to handle these complicated conversations. There's one word to use if you want to persuade instead of argue. If you want to find common ground instead of divide. And that one word is we.

It's the most powerful tool in conversation. So Jack, let's get out our toolbox here. Yeties, the Wall Street Journal did an article where they looked at a bunch of studies. And the word we is basically a linguistic trick shot. It's also a leadership trick shot. It doesn't really cost you anything to use it, but you get a lot of benefits when you use it, man. Using the word we instead of you can be the difference between conflict and agreement and the data shows it. Get this.

A Columbia Business School study examined Reddit forums where there were comments that used the word we and there were comments that used the word you. There's a comment that says you are wrong, you need to change. And there's another comment that says, we're wrong, we need to change. And Jack, what did they discover the moderate? did when they saw those two different ways of discussing things? Moderators are three times more likely to censor a comment as inappropriate if it has you versus we. Okay, another study in this vein actually gave participants a little bit of a prompt, a creative prompt. They gave participants a paper with an argument about why the drinking age should be lowered.

But here's the interesting thing. The only difference between the two papers was that one said we should lower the drinking age, and the other said, you should lower the drinking age. People were much more convinced by the we arguments than the same argument that used the word you. In fact, before today's podcast recording, I did a secret experiment on Jack, where I said, Jack, we should change where our microphones are.

Not you should change where our microphones are. And what did you do, Jack? You moved the microphone. Okay, apparently I'm a lab rat. Thanks, man. So Jack, why is it that people are responding more to we than the word you? If you address someone with a you statement, you make that person feel targeted, attacked, and they may become defensive and not listen to you at all.

It's just fundamental psychology. But if you use the word we, they tend to be more open and feel included, so they're more likely to listen. Not only did we lead to a better discussion about the subject, it also led to better persuasion by you. What we're saying that is all you have to do is pivot the pronouns from you to we. You go from second person to third person, and you kind of get what you want. There's no eye in team. No, neither is there in this story. No, there is a Jack.

So, Jack, what's our takeaway? Okay. For all the Yetis and the besties out there. We is a secret business superpower. So, Yeties, the data shows that we actually led to more persuasion in political discussions. But Columbia Business School showed that it applies to business situations, too. Yeah, another example. Giving feedback to a colleague?

Well, the studies show that they are more likely to accept that feedback, or feedback. forward if you use we. You need to improve this pitch deck versus we need more organized pitch decks. The we is better. That's what's going to get the analyst to update the pitch deck. Oh, and if you're applying for a job, using we signals that you want to be a part of the company. Using you could make the boss or the interview feel a little defensive. Yeah, good point, Jack. It's like, who are you telling me what to do? Honestly, Jack, I'm going to say it's, it kind of works in relationships too, using we instead of you, doesn't it, man? Honey, we need to respond to them faster. versus honey, you need to respond to them faster.

You know how I kind of take my time in the shower when I'm in the shower? When we were living together in the dorms, I used to. The other day, Molly said, we need to get to dinner faster. And now I was in a towel a minute later. A minute later, I was in a towel. It worked on you. It worked on me. So, yeties, you may be in a political chat at brunch,

or you may be at a one-on-one at work, or you may just be getting ready for date night. Naked in the shower. Either way, your secret superpower is we. Great finale, Jack. Great finale. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the Real Friday? Elf beauty stock has soared as Americans under 45 are in love with their affordable makeup.

Elf beauty, it helps explain the 2024 election. For our second story, Elon, he made a huge bet on Trump and it paid off. X could explode in Trump's second term. Rupert Murdoch is out. Elon Musk is in. And finally, in a potentially did. difficult conversation using we statements instead of use statements is more effective. We is a secret business superpower for you. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else

you need to know today. First, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. All other interest rates are probably going to come down as a result. More interestingly, the Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, addressed the Trump in the room that we mentioned in yesterday's pot. Jerry Powell said that Trump legally cannot fire him. And if Trump asked him to resign, he would not resign from our central bank. Our central banker is in it to win it. He won't quit until his term ends. And second, three months ago, the domain www.com was acquired for $15 million dollars by a secret buyer. And we just found out it was Sam Altman. OpenAI has acquired the website, chat.com, for $15 million. The world's biggest chatbot now owns chat.com.

I'm surprised I didn't go for chat.bot, you know, or chatbot.com. Surprise they didn't just get sam.com, Jack. And finally, every tech CEO from Sam Altman to Tim Cook to Satchanadella publicly congratulated President Trump. And they did it on X. They're all using flattering words to try to get on the president-elect's good side. CEOs in this new administration, they're going to have to act like diplomats. Let the sucking up begin. Now, time for the best fact yet.

this one whipped up by Jack and me, because it's from our The Best Idea Yet episode that we just did on the Jeep. There's several theories about why the Jeep is called the Jeep. Maybe it's a slurring of the word GP for general purpose, which is what Ford originally called it. Or maybe the Jeep car is called the Jeep because in the 1940s, Jeep was a slang term for a noob or a rookie. Or maybe it's called the Jeep because Popeye the Sailor Man had a magical mythical, mythical pet named Jeep, who he rode on. But Yetis, we've got way more to tell you about the Jeep car, the car that saved the world. We're dropping a sample of our Jeep episode on our feed tomorrow. That's right. From our new show, The Best Idea Yet, we did a whole 45-minute episode all about

the untold origin story of the Jeep. And we're dropping seven minutes on it tomorrow. So take a break from the news this weekend and give it a listen. Yeties, you looked fantastic all week. It was an intense week. It was a big week out there, like we said. And in each of the last three episodes, we put a lot of thought into each story, especially ones that touch on the election, which seems to be everything in the news world right now. Because the election touches everything about the economy. So we were trying to think of ways to show you what's really happening, why it was happening, and these other angles that you just aren't going to see anywhere else. We put all our economic takeaways this week into our newsletter, where you can find everything wrapped up in a typo. Our weekly newsletter

which you should subscribe to right now because you'll get it tomorrow morning. You'll be armed with the facts, stats, and our original economic election takeaways for this weekend. I think what Jack we're saying is, not you should sign up for our newsletter, but we should sign up for our newsletter.

We got a link in the episode description for you to subscribe. So Yeties, we will subscribe to the newsletter and Jack and I will see you on. And before we go, and congratulations to Yeti's Tatiana and Kamal over in Ler. lovely Brooklyn, New York. And Jack, did you hear what the Wedding Planner League to us?

No, what? Apparently, Tatian and Kamal may be walking out to the T-boy theme song down the aisle. No way. This couple is the best one yet. And happy 249th birthday to the United States Marine Corps. This shoutout is sent in by Sergeant Major Hector Sanchez, who has been serving for 20 amazing years. So thanks to all the Marines out there who've given their service. And happy birthday to Martel ZW. in Seattle, Washington. I don't know if Martel was named after me, but I'm going to run with it.

Martel, best birthday yet. Happy anniversary to Brandon Brock in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Get this. This is his fifth shout-out for his five-year anniversary with Marina. Not too shabby. And Sage is celebrating the 100th day of their life down the street in San Francisco.

And Jack, Huan, her parent, and her sister, were in the same class as me as Warden. Legendary Yetty's, legendary Ward Nights. And happy birthday to Dave and Soon and Kevin Huang. From Los Angeles in New York, these besties were MVP's in T-boy winning that Webby Award.

We did it together, guys, and Kingston Stiff is turning 11 years old, down in Atlanta, not just a future entrepreneur, but a legendary soccer player combined the two. Happy birthday to Hiro Lorin, who's turning 25 in Los Angeles. And Mika Villareal is turning

three years old up in Napa, not with a Pino yet. And up in 23rd birthday in Nicole Sweeney in Eden Prairie, Minnesota. And Tricia Pia, Paul is enjoying their first birthday in Boulder, Colorado, with some really happy parents. Congrats, guys. And to anyone else who's celebrating something today, make it a T-Bah.

Celebrate the wins.