The Best One Yet - ⌚ “Engagement Watch” — Rolex’s wedding win. Starbucks’ barista championship. Home Depot’s ICE raid.

Episode Date: June 13, 2025

Rolex sales are jumping… because women are giving them as engagement rings (watches?).Home Depot’s newest business risk?... It’s now ground zero in the ICE immigration raids.Starbucks hosted the world’s 1st Barista Championship… and hiring full-time in-house influencers.Plus, the wildest new recession indicator is… TaskRabbits.$SBUX $HD $SWGAYWant more business storytelling from us? Check out the latest episode of our new weekly deepdive show: The untold origin story of… Subscribe to The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks to listen.TBOY Live Show Tickets to Chicago on sale NOW: https://www.axs.com/events/949346/the-best-one-yet-podcast-ticketsAbout Us: The daily pop-biz news show making today’s top stories your business. Formerly known as Robinhood Snacks, TBOY Lite is hosted by Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts NEWSLETTER:https://tboypod.com/newsletter SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Our 2nd show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It is Friday, the real Friday, the 13th of June. And today's part is the best one yet. This is a T-Boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. 20,000 followers on Instagram. We are this close to 20,000 followers on Instagram.

Check us out at T-Boy Pot. If you are the 20,000 followers, ooh, we'll hook you up with a free T-boy hat. And then you're going to look fantastic. But in the meantime, Jack, we got three wonderful stories. for today's show, what is on the T-Boy? For our first story, Rolex watch sales are suddenly surging,

and we found a few reasons why. One of them? Women are buying men Rolex engagement watches. That's right, real thing. Hey, Alex, I guess you missed the memo. Third anniversary Rolex, we'll take it. For our second story,

ICE is in the headlines for ramping up deportations. And one business and one industry is feeling at most. Home Depot. HD is ground zero of Trump's immigration policy. And our third and final story is Starbucks. Starbucks stock is struggling, so they just hosted the World Barista Championships. And Jack, what is Starbucks next big move?

They're hiring a full-time, in-house influencer. Check out this orange boca for Apecheito. A first of its kind. Yes, it is, but not the last. But yet is, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. What a mix of stories to go into the weekend with, Jack? No one has tracked more alternative recession indicators than we have. Besties, you already know about the lipstick index and the men's undies theory.

We also track Botox, hair dye, and brown bag lunches. Not to mention Katie Perry concerts, all of them, alternative recession indicators. But here's the newest. Task rabbits. That's right. Do more Task rabbits mean a worse economy? Maybe, because here's the news. Task rabbit has experienced a 20% surge in people seeking gig work this year. And remember, TaskRabbit is the platform that connects people with gig work. workers for hourly work jobs. I just hired a TaskRabbit to stain my patio furniture. I thought you

chopped your own wood. I didn't know that. I do not chop my own wood. Okay, is that not involved? I even know you could stain that kind of thing. It's teak wood. It's an investment. I trust you on this one, Jack. So here's the analysis. If TaskRabbit requests go up, that's actually a good sign for the economy. That's right, because people would be spending money on their homes. But if TaskRabbit Taskers go up, that's a worrisome sign about the economy. It means people must be worried about their income. And they're trying to supplement their paycheck by staining my furniture. Well, get this. Right now, there are so many taskers that TaskRabbit had to start a wait list. They don't want the market to become overwhelmed by people looking for work. And now, Bessies, we should point out,

this doesn't necessarily mean the R word recession. After all, stocks are near all-time highs. But it does mean a little bit of economic uncertainty. Something to keep your eye on yet is the task rabbit tipping point. In the meantime, if anyone can help Jack set up that baby He's bassinet. He's paying 40 bucks an hour. Dude, I already set up the bassinet. Let me tell you, I can't do that. I can't assemble it or unassemble a jack. It's just an Allen wrench.

It's just an Allen. Why would they name it after a person? 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip.

Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, We're ready to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, Rolex sales are surging right now for a whole bunch of unexpected and totally random reasons like the Rolex engagement ring.

But there's one stat about Rolex that shocked us. Apparently, Rolexes are everywhere. I feel awkward. I don't have one right now. But yet is, let's start with some geographical context. few countries are known for more things than the Swiss are, right, Jack? Fondue, chocolate, neutrality, and time, including... Kuku clocks.

Absolutely. I went skydiving once, by the way, and my parents were not happy with it there. I don't think that's a thing the Swiss are known for. That's also a fair point, Jack. But funny phenomenon we noticed in April, Yeties, used Rolex watch sales popped 160% in just a few weeks? Why was Rolex the Rolls-Royce of your wrist selling like Beanie Babies out of nowhere? Well, Jack, the answer was trade war hoarding. People were worried about tariffs, so they loaded up on a Rolex before they got terrified. But besties, this is what Jack and I found fascinating.

Even after the tariffs got paused on Switzerland, Rolex sales continued to spike. Because Rolex just launched a new watch that took them seven years to design. Get this, it's called the Landweller, and Rolex actually filed 16 different patents to make it possible. It starts at 15 grand. If you have one of these, are you wearing them or are you just leaving them in the safe? I think it wears you, Jack. That's how it works with the new Rolex. But the third Rolex headline, nobody saw coming. Rolex engagement rings?

Not rings. Well, they're rings because they wrap around your wrist, I guess. Yeah, yeah. I guess their Rolex watches as engagement rings for dudes. Get this. A new trend on TikTok is brides giving their grooms Rolexes before the wedding. That's right. She gets a diamond ring. He gets a Rolex. And let's just say Rolex is thrilled about this development. Yeah, they are. Oh, also, you should be too, because if you're going to a wedding this weekend, we basically just gave you the icebreaker for your table. On TikTok, one bride got down on one knee and opened up a box for her man, revealing a Rolex.

That bride's video got a million views over just the last week. Financially, this trend makes sense. It does. You know, like a diamond, Rolex holds value. It's timeless. It's basically a 401k on your body. And sentimentally, it makes sense, too. You pass down a ring to your children. You can pass down a Rolex to your children. It becomes a family heirloom. And the more we're talking about this, Jack,

I'm starting to think Alex may owe you an Omega at the very least. But our takeaway about Rolex is probably going to shock you. That's right. Because it shocked Nick and me. It did. Rolex is valuable, but it's not as rare as you'd realize. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our strapped-on buddies over at Rolex? Like beauty, scarcity is in the eye of the beholder.

Okay, so Yetis, how many watches do you think Rolex makes each year? I asked Jack that question before we started researching the story, and Jack asked 50,000 Rolexes per year. I was way off. They actually make 1.2 million Rolexes every year. Yeah, that's true. In fact, Rolex is one-third of the whole Swiss watch industry by revenue. Besties, what we're saying here is that Rolex ain't rare.

Rolex is everywhere. For context, Arameis makes 50,000 of their famous Birkenbags per year. So I was kind of on with my 50,000 guess. Right, but Rolex makes 20 times as many watches every year. Ferrari makes only 15,000 cars a year. Rolex makes 80 times as many watches. As we're saying to Jack, it's almost like Rolex's business models like a Porsche. It seems exclusive and rare, but it's really everywhere.

Maybe not everywhere, but fairly common. And that's a reminder, Yeties. That's scarcity and exclusivity. Exclusivity, that can be manufactured and marketed. Perception of scarcity can be just as powerful as actual scarcity. Like a beauty, scarcity is in the eye of the beholder. For our second story, as ICE deportations kick into high gear, American companies are already losing workers.

That's how Home Depot has become ground zero in Trump's immigration policy. Now, Yeties, last week, the attention in politics was on Trump's Elon breakup and criticism of his big, beautiful bill. As we told you, it was the brovo. This week, Trump and Elon made up. Yes, they did. And Trump successfully turned America's attention to something else. Immigration. Immigration. It just happens to be a consistent political winner for the president. Which leads to the news that his administration has reportedly set a quota to deport 3,000 people every day. Now, to hit this 3,000 people a day deportation quota, Trump and his eyes agents, have a strategy. They're going to Home Depot and 7-Eleven. Literally. Ice agents are doing raids

of places where immigrants gather or work, home depots, and 7-Elevens. They're asking for papers, and if the people have no ID, they're detaining them, and if they're determined unlawful, they're getting deported. But yet is this is what made Jack and I jump in T-boy style. This immigration story is rapidly becoming an economics and business story. Because unauthorized immigrants are workers. And deportation is already leading to work shortages. In fact, back in February, Jack and I noticed this was already an issue in Home Depot's earnings call. Home Depot got two questions from financial analysts back in February asking them about the impact of immigration policies on their business. Oh wow, we also just got some wild data from Cantor research about what's happening right now, right, Jack?

Home Depot has suffered a 9% drop in Hispanic shoppers in the first quarter. They're staying at home to avoid interacting with authorities. Now let's sprinkle on more context here, Jack. Of the 13.7 million unauthorized immigrants in America, many of them have been reliable workers for years. And half of them pay taxes, according to the tax policy set. I actually did not know that stat. There's this alternative to the social security number that lots of unauthorized immigrants get in order to work, and they pay taxes hoping it increases their chances of getting citizenship someday. Now, studies also show that jobs done by unauthorized immigrants are jobs that Native-born Americans just don't want to do. In many cases, we literally won't do them.

Right. Like, working in a field under the hot sun all day, that's something Native-born Americans have no interest in doing. And even if American-born Americans did want to do these jobs, we just simply don't have enough of them to actually do the jobs. Here was a surprise twist on Thursday. President Trump admitted the economic implications and the economic impact of his immigration policies in a post on truth. This was shocking, but Trump tweeted that business owners are losing, as he said, very good longtime workers who are almost impossible to replace. Trump seems to hear the complaints of business and CEOs, but he's proceeding with his deportations anyway. Now Trump would say that he's going to keep on deporting anyway because some of these individuals are criminals,

or maybe it is part of a deterrent strategy to stop other immigrants from coming in. So he's willing to take the pain of worker shortages in exchange for the immigration benefit. But still, Jack and I wanted to whip up this takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddy is over at Home Depot? The two industries most vulnerable to deportations are the two most important industries in the economy right now. Yet is, according to Oxford economics, construction and agriculture, those are the two most dependent industries on unauthorized immigrants. 14% of construction workers are unauthorized immigrants.

And 10% of farm workers are unauthorized immigrants. Jack, could you whip up a statistic translation for us over there? Because of these deportations, the price of new housing and the price of groceries could be under pressure. And Home Depot? They're hit with a double whammy here, right, Jack. Losing customers, they're losing construction business, and deportations could be happening in their parking lot.

Yeah, their stock is actually down 14%. since that earnings report we mentioned. Add it all up and there's a major trade-off in Trump's immigration policies that even he has acknowledged. More deportations equal more worker shortages. And more worker shortages could lead to higher prices. Especially in housing and groceries. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story before the weekend, Starbucks is crowning barista champions and hiring full-time coffee influencers. What midlife crisis?

We explore Starbucks's pivot to creator marketing and the new job that every company is soon going to offer. Yeties, let's start with the stock. Starbucks shares popped in August. On news, they poached the Chipotle CEO, the legendary Brian Nicol. But since that day, Starbucks's stock is actually down. Yes, it is, Jack. And now they're even under pressure to sell their struggling China business. So, Jack, pause the pot. I got to ask, what do you do when your business is shrinking? Your turnaround is and your investors are freaking. You crown the first ever world barista champion! That's right, bestie. Starbucks held a competition

during their company offside over in Vegas. 14,000 workers watched latte lovers brew their best. The World Barista Championships is the Super Bowl for Star. And it's like the Olympics of Lates. It's the World Cup of White Foam. It feels like the Harry Potter House Cup meets the Hunger Games with like a splash of pistachio milk. Now, the winner was declared on Wednesday.

It's a man from Japan, and he was the best out of 84,000 competitors. Pretty exciting because the winner has a chance to concoct their own signature menu item, which is going to be. The Blooming Yuzu espresso. If they make a decaf, we'll take two. Or I'll take two. You'll take regular. But besties, this is what Jack and I found more fascinating about this story. The Job Board.

They're hiring their first ever global coffee creator. A full-time Starbucks influencer is going to be hired by Starbucks. If this sounds interesting to you, applications closed today. But if you get the job, it sounds like the coolest gap year ever. FYI, again, a few hours left for you to submit your resume. Starbucks is looking for someone to travel for 12 months to Starbucks shops across the world. You like check out the flagship reserve cafe in Milan, the new institution they've opened in Tokyo, plus the bean growing hacienda down in Costa Rica.

And because this is influencer marketing, airfare is paid for by Delta and hotels are paid for by Marriott. Yeah, it's like the rare thruple of corporate partnerships. You've got Starbucks, Delta, and Marriott involved. Never seen those three together before. And naturally, you must capture all of your espresso experiences with a selfie stick and a ringline. Oh, and that content you record? Yeah, Jack? It's Starbucks property.

Yeah, they're going to own it. So two people are going to get paid for this 12-month full-time gig. One of them is already going to be an employed barista. The other is one lucky TikToker. And we say TikToker because the application actually requires a TikTok video to be posted, explaining why you should get the job. And you got to tag Starbucks. Yeah.

It's a very public application that also gets Starbucks and views on TikTok. Not too shabby. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Starbucks? Starbucks is inventing a new role. In-house influencer. Yeties, as Jack and I thought more about this, we think this is a job posting, we're going to see more of, and a job that we expect influencers to be really interested in.

Because the reality is that influence. Influencer is a stressful job. It is hard to make money, and the business model is sponsored posts, so you feel like you're always working. And that's when we remembered. Some lawyers choose to become in-house lawyers. Instead of a law firm, they go and work as a lawyer for a corporation. And just like in-house lawyers, in-house influencer would be a more stable, less stressful job that has a better boundary between work and life. So for Starbucks, their first in-house influencer will capture coffee content from the seed to the cappuccino. Starbucks has invented a new role, in-house influence. Basties, expect to see more of them. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the Real Friday?

Rolex has become an engagement gift for men. Yeah, but Rolexes are more common than you think. Like beauty, scarcity is in the eye of the beholder. For our second story, as the Trump administration aims to deport 3,000 people a day, Home Depot has become ground zero. The two industries that are losing the most workers are construction and agriculture. And our third and final story is Starbucks. They're looking for a content creator to travel the world, drink Starbucks, and take selfies.

You're an in-house influencer. That is the new job that we think you're going to see a lot more of. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, chime the McDonald's of online banking, as we call it. I peoed yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares finished 37% higher on the first day of trading. The valuation is $13.5 billion.

And by the way, the reason we call chime, the McDee's of money, is because it's low-priced, consistent, and a scalable concept. And their IPO keeps the streak of successful IPOs going. And second, Mickey just called up the lawyers and told them, let's sue artificial intelligence. Here's the news. Disney and Universal Studios sued Mid-Journey, the AI company, for copyright infringement. Yeah, because if you ask Mid-Journey to turn you into a minion,

it's going to do so without paying the studios. They didn't sue Open AI, though, which is interesting. It is interesting. That's the biggest player, like, probably. probably vulnerable for copyright infringement. It seems like they're going with the cheaper model here. And finally, as Nick and I are recording this, we're just seeing now breaking headlines from the Middle East.

Israel has attacked Iran Friday morning local time. We don't have any more details than that. It comes after the U.S. failed to secure a nuclear deal with Iran. And the attack raises fears of war in the Middle East between the region's two biggest militaries. This last one isn't pop business news, but it is something you need to know today. Now, time for the best fact. Yeah, this one whipped up by your dad, because Father's Day is this Sunday.

It should be called Barbecue Day. Yeah, it should be. Analysis of restaurant sales from Father's Day 2023 show that barbecue sales nearly doubled. Yeah, according to Toast, they were up 98% compared to an average June day. Speaking of Father's Day, Nick and I, two fathers, by the way. I have a correction to me. Yeah, correction. Yesterday, we did a story on the controversy of putting ketchup on your breakfast. And we played a clip of President Obama talking to Anthony Bourdain. We meant to play a clip of them ridiculing putting ketchup on eggs. Yeah, we accidentally played one about them putting ketchup on hot dogs. So here's the correct clip.

Here's the right clip. Yeah. Nine seconds after the video that we played yesterday. My daughter's ate and she put ketchup on eggs the other day. And I didn't know what the good parenting called for at this point. An intervention. I think you just got to say, you know what, that's not acceptable. I'm sorry.

Yeah, Jack, I just still don't think. ketchup works on oatmeal. I just don't see a world where I want to live in that world. No one is making that argument. Exactly. Yetis, you look fantastic going into the weekend. Jack and I got a special surprise. We're whipping up for you tomorrow morning.

Happy Father's Day in advance to all those who celebrate. And Nick and I will see you there. Can't wait. And before we go, a happy birthday to Yeti, Megan Cork-Langford in Salt Lake City, Utah, who also just got a new job at The Bickler. And a big shout-out to my dad. Happy Father.

his day dad. Also a shout out to this guy, Nick. Fantastic father. I just finished spending three days in San Francisco. The way he interacts with his son Maxi is unreal. Yeah, he should have seen it though. Jack was carrying Maxie up a hill. He Maxi made him get carried up all the hills. Dude, the hills in San Francisco are steep. Yeah, especially with a 35 pounds two year old. I had him on my back for about 400 feet of elevation. Big Ten and Big Mike, happy father's day. Oh, and to that Yeti who we saw on Market Street who shouted out at us, hello, thanks for listening to the show. And if you want to get a shout out on the pod, we got a form in this episode description, fill

it out and we'll get you on the show. This is Jack. I own stock of Disney and Nick and I both on stock of Chipotle.