The Best One Yet - 🌮 “From TACO to BURRITO” — Trump’s next trade war trade. Jimmy Butler’s super coffee. Target’s influencer turnaround.

Episode Date: July 16, 2025

Forget the Trump T.A.C.O. Trade… we want to introduce the B.U.R.R.I.T.O. trade coming Aug 1stBasketball star Jimmy Butler just launched a $100 coffee… because of the wine industry.Target’s stock has dropped 60% from its high, so we have a solution… and it’s all about influencers.Plus, the most controversial part of your car? Cupholders (blame Stanley Mugs)...$SBUX $TGT TSPYWant more business storytelling from us? Check out the latest episode of our new weekly deepdive show: The untold origin story of… Michelin’s Restaurant Guide ⭐Subscribe to The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks to listen.TBOY Live Show Tickets to Chicago on sale NOW: https://www.axs.com/events/949346/the-best-one-yet-podcast-ticketsAbout Us: The daily pop-biz news show making today’s top stories your business. Formerly known as Robinhood Snacks, TBOY Lite is hosted by Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts NEWSLETTER:https://tboypod.com/newsletter SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Our 2nd show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Wednesday, Saviche Wednesday, July 16th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-Boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. One week, count them one week until our live show in Chicago's tickets still available, Jack. Here we go.

July 23rd in Chicago, tap the link in the episode description to snag your tickets. Okay, Jack and I actually whipped up something special. We're giving away some merch to some lucky attendees. You want to share what it is, Jack? We actually have some Yeti dolls. basically adult stuffed animals that we're going to toss out to the audience Oprah style. We got some Yeti, Labubu-y Yeti dolls. So snag your tickets fasties, bring a buddy.

And Jack, let's hit today's three fantastic stories. For our first story, the taco trade is that President Trump announces tariffs and then he chickens out. But this time, we think he won't. In fact, we have a new theory that we call the burrito trade. And it just might put a curtain on Wall Street. Oh, yeah. For our second story, Jimmy Butler, The NBA All-Star and gold medal winner just opened his second coffee shop.

It's called Big Face, and get this, they sell a flight of coffee for a hundred bucks. Because coffee is copying line. Coffee coming after the cabs. And our third and final story, Target is Targon. While all its big box competition is at record highs, Target is down 60%. So Jack and I have a solution. Target should become the physical store of the influencer economy. But yet he's below.

before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Whoa! What a mix for a TV boy. Actually, Saviche Wednesday. Love the mix, Jack. We know your favorite part of your favorite car. It's not the engine, it's not the speed, and it ain't the heated massage seat.

It's the cup holders. The cup holders. Jack and I have told you about it. We call it the cup holder effect. It's that you're more likely to choose your car based on the number and placement of cup holders than the number and placement of the horsepower. Six cup holders, boom.

That beat six cylinder engines. According to JD Power's survey, cup holders across the country are failing us drivers. And the reason is shocking. It's the Stanley Tumblr. JD Power surveyed 92,000 Americans about their cars, what they like about them, and what they don't like about them. And their fastest growing frustration, it's the cup holder is too small. Cup holder crankiness jumped four spots on the list of top car complaints this year. Because of Stanley Cups, they've gotten too big for that Buick. They've gotten too large for that.

that Lexus. Jack, there's too much girth for your VW golf. The 64 out Stanley Tumba, it's five inches wide at the bottom neck. True story. That's some circumference right there. It's like this double the size of a double big golf. Okay, Bessie's, Jack's big dumb cup is 40 ounces. He has to put it in the trunk when he's driving. I got it right here. It does not fit in a standard commission sized cup holder. You need a tractor trailer for that thing. But to sprinkle on some context yeties, the cup holder was invented in the 1916. 70s right around the same time as the fast food drive-thru. And today, it's the Toyota Sienna.

That's the queen of the cup holder. 18 cup holders. That's enough for a whole team, man. But the size of those cup holders just hasn't adapted to the modern water bottle. So the way we see it, to solve today's cup holder crankiness, we're going to need some jug holders. Yeah. Hey, Stanley, pause the Stanley Cup.

Build us to Stanley Cab. Because Jack's holding his tumbler between his thighs and that. We're going to need to see some license and registration. That's dangerous. Pull over, sir. I'm already pulled over, Jack. Let's hit our three stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea that caused a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm. 50%. That's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know,

because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. Our first story. Is it the end of the taco trade? Because we predict that But this time, Trump actually won't cave on tariffs. So we want to introduce a new trade. We call it the burrito trade. And it starts August 1st. Now, yeties, let's go back in time a little bit.

The trade war, it officially began 105 days ago, April 2nd, Liberation Day. But it was actually liquidation day. Yeah, why was that, Jack? Stocks fell 14% in the four days after Trump declared trade war on the whole world. And the only reason Trump paused all those tariffs for 90 days? Because the stock market was tanking and CEOs were freaking out. And thus began the taco trend. Because when it comes to tariffs, Trump always chickens out.

Investors started ignoring the trade war because Trump is afraid of the stock market falling, so he backs off tariffs every time. Yeah, it's just the bluff. Don't worry when he announces tariffs in Argentina. He's not going to follow through with them. That was the thought. And the result was a fantastic, first half of the year for the stock market, even though tariffs were constantly a threat.

We called it the shrug market, because investors just shrugged it off. But starting last week, Trump's trade war chillout came to an end. That's right. President Trump has doubled down on tariffs. In fact, Jack and I've been keeping count, and we have counted a dozen. There were a dozen new tariff threats in the last dozen days. All right, Jack, let's check out the Whiteboard. What happened on July 7th? He announced 25 to 40% tariffs on 14 countries, all starting August 1st. What about on July 9th? 50% tariffs on Brazil, also effective August 1st.

Okay, how about on July 12th? 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, and 35% tariffs on Canada, all effective August 1st. What the heck, Jack? For good measure, let's toss 50% tariffs on copper, also effective August 1st. 25 countries, including virtually all of our major trading partners, except the U.S. UK and Vietnam. Because the UK and Vietnam are the only two countries that have reached any kind of a trade agreement since all of this trade war started. Plus, copper's getting tariffs. I forgot. Hide those pennies. Horde those pennies, Jack. So Trump has raised so many stakes for August 1st. He's turned it like into his personal tea day. It's a big deal, August 1st. But Jack, what do investors think despite

seeing all of those tariffs over the last three weeks. Investors think it's all one big bluff. It's taco all over again. And proof that's how Wall Street thinks is that stocks are at all-time highs. Yes, they are. But best is, here's what Jack and are thinking. With Trump's reputation on the line and with stocks at all-time highs, is he really going to cave again at the end of this month?

If he does cave again, then how can any threats he makes in the future be taken seriously? Oh, good point, Jack, which leads to... our takeaway. Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies looking at the markets? Forget the taco trade. Get ready for the opposite. The burrito trade. The burrito trade. I will explain in a few. Yet is, when President Trump declared the trade war 100 days ago, stocks fell 14% that erased a year of gains in just four days. And yet, in the past couple weeks, he's announced just as many new tariffs, but stocks have barely budged. Stocks are chilling at all-time highs right now. It's because of the taco trade. And if Trump caves again, then Wall Street was right. These all-time high stock prices

really do make sense. But like we said, if Trump does cave again on August 1st, then his reputation as a dealmaker is completely ruined. And that's the key. Besties, that's why we think this time Trump won't chicken out. We think he won't back down. We think he's going to stick with these tariffs. He doesn't want to lose leverage. He doesn't want to appear as weak. He doesn't want his credibility shot. And he doesn't like that Wall Street doesn't believe him. So add it all up. Jack and I are calling this, the burrito trade. Burrito, you ready for it? Hit me. Bold, unilateral retaliation, regardless of inflation, trade, or opinions.

You can double check us. That spells burrito. The burrito trade, it's the opposite of the taco trade. Because on August 1st, we think Trump won't chicken out. Which means the stock market is in for a hurtin. It's in for a burrito check. For our second story. Basketball star Jimmy Butler launched a coffee chain and he's selling $100 flights of coffee.

We don't think that price is crazy. No, we don't. And as proof, we're pointing to the wine industry. Yes, we are. Now, Yet he is earlier this year, Jack and I told you about a trend. We actually called it Gucci coffee. Ralph Lauren, Prada, and Zara. Three fashion brands now have coffee shops too.

Yes, they do. But the latest caffeinated trend that we've noticed is professional athlete coffee. that sporty cappuccinos. Like Olympian Melissa Ortiz, who launched a coffee startup last year. Or Patrick Mahomes, who just joined Throne Protein Coffee as a co-founder, even though the brand's been around for a while. I don't know how we pulled that off.

But it makes sense when you think about it. Like, why compete with your teammates who have all invested in and launched their own energy drink brands these days? And strategically, coffee is a bigger market than energy drinks. To quote, Jerry McGuire, Show me the money. We think pro-athlet coffee collapse could be the new sneaker deal. LeBron Starbucks commercial?

We're predicting it. It could be seeing it in the future. But the biggest leader in this professional athlete coffee trend, who is it, Jack? Jimmy Butler. Yeah. The six-time NBA All-Star and Olympic gold medal winner and current Golden State Warrior. He prefers to go by Java Jimmy, although we like to call him the Scotty Pippin of the pourover. Or maybe it's Scotty Pippin of the Pumpkin Spice.

I don't think he likes pumpkin spice, dude. Shoot us a DM, Jimmy, and we can help you decide. Because get this. Not only did Jimmy launch a coffee brand, he's got a $100 price tag on those coffees. It's called Big Face. The stores have minimalist design, but offer maximal coffee. It's like a Michelin-style mocha sensory experience. The first location opened in Miami in December, and the latest location launched this month in San Francisco. I mean, Jack, there was a line out the door the entire weekend.

It basically became an influencer Mecca. And Jimmy is going full court French press when it comes to the menu. Pricing is a strategy, Jack. Tell us about the prices, please. $10 for a cup of drip coffee. Okay, that's expensive, but I can handle that. $100 for a flight of coffee? I've never seen a coffee shop with $100 anything on the menu.

Besties, we told you about double-digit lattes. We're talking triple-digit lattes here. The flight for $100 includes three tiny cups of specialty coffee. And again, it's $100. This big-faced coffee brand is charging prices that would make blue bottle look like a charity. Now, we should sprinkle out in some context. Jimmy Buffler has become a coffee snob. Yeah, it's true.

It actually began during COVID when he was importing his own beans to his house to make the coffee he desired. Today, Jimmy travels to away games and brings his own barista to the hotel with him. Because during the pandemic, the NBA was playing in a bubble. There was no access to, like, outside resources. He didn't want to drink coffee from his K-cup machine in his hotel room. So he actually brought his own French press and started brewing coffee for his teammates, charging them 20 bucks a cup. Yeah, he said if they're making million-dollar contracts,

they can afford the $20 Macchiata. And that's when he developed the Big Face brand during the pandemic basketball bubble. But we should point out, Jack, it's not named Big Face Coffee because Jimmy Butler, the athlete, has a big physical face. It's called Big Face Coffee

because his teammates paid him in $100 bills. They were that expensive. And there's a big face on those $100 bills. Ben Franklin, huge cheeks. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our $100 latte buddies over at Big Face Coffee. Why can't fine coffee be priced and appreciated like fine wine? Yeties, $100 for a cup of coffee. Sounds crazy. But consider for a second the wine industry.

Wineries can easily charge $1,000 based on the way they grow the grape. Why can't coffee houses do the same based on the way they grow the bean? Yeah, we call it the three E's. Like a bottle of Bordeaux charges $500 because of quality, history, and story. The three E's. It kind of works. It kind of works. It really works. Because that bottle of Bordell was made by a winery

that's been making red wine in a prized region of France for a hundred years and selling it with a famous label. Well, Big Face applies the same tactics to coffee beans for its rare African coffee strains. Those beans are grown in a prized terrain of Ethiopia for centuries,

and now it's got a cool brand too. Big Face is even borrowing the same language as wine, tasting notes, aging, and terroar. The strategy works. works with alcoholic grape juice, why not with caffeinated bean juice? So Jimmy Butler's $100

latte asks a philosophical business question. Can you winify the coffee industry? Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, Target stock is dropping. Its sales are slipping.

Something has gone horribly wrong at Targe. Basically, to sum it all up, Target is Targon. That gets it right there. idea we think could turn Target around, the influencer aisle. Now, Basties, full disclosure. I grew up in a city, so I didn't visit my first Target until I was like 26. I do Target runs so often. I'm like the mayor walking around with my big dumb cop down the aisles. Jack walks in and starts cutting tape on new products. They're like,

photo off, Jack's here. The mayor of local Target. Yeah, well, you may know Target because growing up, It was the anti-W Walmart. It was the un-Amazon. It was a millennial retail oasis. Target! It was Targei, clever, collapse, clean design, and a Bull Terrier mascot

who was way cooler than the Taco Bell Chihuahua. What happened to that mascot? Is that dog okay? It's a story for another pod, Jack. There were so many Target innovations. For example, trendier aisles. It was the first brick and mortar store to welcome direct-to-consumer brands.

Casper Mattress, Harry's Razors, Native deodorant, the online-only millennial DTC brands, were all sold at Target too. Target also pioneered stores within stores. Starbucks, they opened up 1,700 locations within targets. We called it Inception Retail at the time. Apple, Alta Beauty, Levi, and Disney, they also opened many stores within Target stores.

Add it all up, and Jack, what was the result for Target as we were all grown up? Target was on a 2010's tear, and the stock nearly tripled during the pandemic. The all-time high valuation for Target was over $100 billion. You were doing day nights at Target, and you know what? Good for you. But here's the update that you already know if you've been to Target recently.

Yeah. Target is Targon. Target's business is missing the bullseye so badly. It's just not a good scene over there. Jack, let's talk financially. What kind of numbers we're looking at here? Sales have fallen for two straight years while the other big box stores have been up. Stocks of Walmart, T.J. Max, Costco.

They're all at all-time highs while Target, it's down 60%. It's not just the data, though. It's the vibes. Yeah. An employee told CNBC this week that Target has. has lost its identity. The lines for checkout are longer. The collabs ain't as cool,

and the stores feel messy and uninviting. Why are the cute tops all on the ground? I don't even know what I'm doing there. For example, the locks. Target now keeps deodorant locked up to deter theft like Walgreens used to. And here's the weird thing we noticed. The CEO claims that consumers like their old spice deodorant

locked up with a key. Nobody likes having to ask you to come and unlock the deodorant. So, Jack, now what's been the result for Target? Target is losing its faithful. Yes, they are. And half the customers who stop going to Target go to Walmart instead, except for Jack. True.

I'm still barely hanging out of Target. You still have me. It's the people pleaser in you, Jack. So Jack wants the takeaway for our buddies over at Target. Target should become the physical store for the influencer economy. Yeties, it doesn't appear that Target has any good turnaround plans. So Jack and I spent the whole day thinking up one for them.

Yeah, we came up with one. Our idea for Target, become the go-to store of influencers by inviting them into the store. The way we see it, influencer marketing has matured. It's not just celebs, it's tiny micro-creators,

the ones with 50,000 followers. People trust these micro-influencers and make purchasing decisions based on what they recommend. So, Basties, here is our two-part plan for Target to become the number one place influencers recommend you buy from.

Number one, redesign a section of the store for influencers to film content. Target Influencer Studio where influencers can book half hours to film tutorials. Number two, offer those influencers unlimited samples of things sold at Target as long as they tag Target in the video they post. Come get ready with me as I apply a Revlon lip liner over and Target at Isle 6. The Influencer Studio, it's going to have a kitchen, a bathroom, and a dressing room for tutorial videos and ring lights galore. It's like an influencer arena, Jack.

This way, influencers won't have to film content from the car. they can go to their local Target and have everything they need. And the result of that, the love that Target shows influencers will be reciprocated and scaled. That's how Target can become the physical store for the influencer economy. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for Saviche Wednesday? The Taco Trade could end on August 1st when Trump's dozen new tariff threats become effective. And if we're right, the Taco Trade will become the Burrito Trade. And what does that stand for, Jack?

Bold unilateral retaliation, regardless of inflation, trade, or anybody's opinions. B-U-R-R-I-T-O burrito. Second, Jimmy Butler is scaling his big-face coffee chain with some very pricey menu items like $100 lattes. Because why can't find coffee be priced and appreciated like fine wine? And our third and final story. Target is in many ways Targogne. Yeah. We brainstormed a bold, albeit risky, turnaround plan.

Target. they should become the physical store for the influencer economy. But yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, the inflation report, which has become the celebrity of economic reports, was published yesterday. Prices in this economy jumped 2.7% on average in June from the year before. Which is also up from May's 2.4% inflation gain. Why? That's probably the trade war.

It looks like companies are starting to pass on the costs of tariffs to us. Economists said it would take a few months for us to feel the trade war, and now here we are. Second, Starbucks has officially unveiled their secret menu. That's right. You can now buy drinks off the secret menu within the Starbucks app, like their dragon fruit glow-up for Apocino. Although if the secret menu is no longer secret, can you call it secret anymore? Another philosophical question, Jack. Starbucks, they just turned their secret menu into a regular menu, so the secret is not so safe with us.

And finally, private jet sales are about to pop after the new big, beautiful bill tax break. for private jets. Yeah, there's one new detail in the new bill that companies can write off the entire first year of their private jet. It's called bonus depreciation. It lets you expense the entire cost of the jet in the first year, which reduces your taxes. So wheels up, a private jet stock has been up 5% on that one detail in the bill. It's great news for the super business class plus crowd. The T-boy Jet Jack, it's right off. Well, I guess for one year. Then we got to sell it. Yeah, but it's like $20 million. Not the accountants handle that.

Now time for the best fact yet, which is a correction from Yeti Anerag Gandhi from a lovely Seattle. On Monday, Nick said that he flew the longest flight within the continental contiguous 48 United States. And the flight attendant confirmed it, by the way. Boston to San Francisco is 2,704 miles, but apparently it's no longer the longest. Because Miami to Seattle is 20 miles longer. That's right. Alaskan Airlines launched the service from Miami to Seattle three years ago, and that is 2,724 miles long. So apparently that flight attendant is like Claude, the chapbook.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Her data is only valid up through, like, September of 2021. Yeah, we were working with half the date information. Yeties, you look fantastic today. And if you snack tickets to our live show, you could be one of the winners of our T-Boy Yeti, stuffy, fluffy. It is a Yeti abominable snowman wearing a T-boy t-shirt.

We can't even share any more. We're not even going to share pictures. It's too wild. You've got to see it in person. But obviously, that's just like a tiny detail. The live show is going to be incredible. Oh, yeah. It's a loooboo, but the live show.

That's why you go to the live show. So grab your tickets. We've got a link in this episode description. And Jack and I will see you tomorrow. And before we go, a happy birthday to Yeti Rachel Jodov, who's turning 40 years old over in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Happy birthday, Rachel.

And happy birthday to your birthday to your. A.k.a. Jorge Hill in Monterey, Mexico. And a happy birthday to Yeti, Aaron Romeo from lovely Brooklyn, New York. Listen in right now with daughter Madeline, turn in eight, and steps on Hugo, who's 10, celebrating the wins. And happy birthday to Tucker Kramer from Brown of Vermont. One of my older bros. The Tuckmeister! And Dr. Sidney at the Dentists of Flagstaff.

We want to let you know that Rachel is appreciative. You filled that cavity. Thanks for not forgetting the Novakame. And Cindy Nielsen, just outside Boston's got a new job. San Mateo County and is moving all the way across the country. And finally, a shout out to Lizzie Frost from El Paso, Texas, who went to the University of Texas, El Paso, a college whose architecture was designed to look like the nation of Bhutan.

That raises more questions to me. Lizzie, hope they bought some Bitcoin, too. And if you want to get a shout out on this pod, fill out the form in our episode description, and Jack and I will make it happen. This is Jack. I'm on stock of Levi and Disney. Nick and I both on stock of Apple,

and we both own ETF. the S&P 500.