The Best One Yet - 🙃 “Hello, FOMO Rally” — Bitcoin’s $60,000 surge. Beyond Meat’s French lover. Teledoc’s bow & arrow.

Episode Date: February 29, 2024

Bitcoin surged past $60K to its highest point in 2 years — We think it’s a FOMO rally, which can quickly become a NOMO drop.Beyond Meat stock popped 30% on a surprise new customer: Europeans – Because Europeans have a better taste for sustainability than Americans do.And Teledoc, the owner of BetterHelp, just announced bummer news for investors: It’s “well-penetrated” — A small announcement like that makes a huge difference if you look 10 years out. By the way… on leap day, stock markets don’t leap.$BTC $ETH $HOOD $COIN $BYND $TDOCSubscribe to our newsletter: tboypod.com/newsletterWant merch, a shoutout, or got TheBestFactYet? Go to: www.tboypod.comFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on Youtube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Thursday, the new Friday, February 29th. And today's pod is the best one yet. It's a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. So did you like your surprise last night? You enjoyed the surprise?

Nick told us yesterday has given me a surprise with my name on it. Yeah, it was your name on it? I wondered if it was an yellow bean tote bag or a Yeti Tumblr. All right, here's what we got him. We got a cake made for Jack, but they made one slice of the cake special for Jack in the cake. Nick is a wonderful host. Can I just say that? I've been sleeping on his extra sofa this whole week in San Francisco. I've been loving every minute. Jack, our downstairs, it's like the Olive Garden. When you're here, your family. He left the chocolate on my pillow, everybody. I'm not kidding. It's a coconut flavor. Jack, first story for today's T-Boy. What do we got, man? For our first story, it's Bitcoin. Bitcoin surged past $60,000 for the first time in two years as Bitcoin Mania is back. But yet is this FOMO rally could become a no-mo rally.

For our second story, Beyond Meat just had its best day in the stock market in years. Because Beyond Meets' new best friend is French. And our third and final story is Teledoc. The owner of BetterHelp Therapy filled 25% in one day last week. The prognosis for Teledociac? Telemedicine is well-penetrated. Prognosis negative. But besties, before we hit out one,

wonderful mix of stories. Fantastic mix of stories for the new Friday. Happy Leap Day. Happy Leap Day. Happy Leap Year, Yetis, today is the extra day we all get every four years. It's February 29th. We haven't seen you on the calendar in quite a while. Jack, I'm checking my phone. And it's been four years to be exact.

Now, of course, the reason we do leap year, it's cosmic. Right. Because every year is technically a little more than 365 days. It takes the Earth 365 and one quarter days to go fully around the sun. So technically our year should be 365 days and six hours. But instead of doing one quarter day at the end of every year, we do one extra day every four years. It balances out.

And without leap year, all the months would like start slipping behind in the seasons. I know. Eventually, December would fall in the summertime. And it would really mess with Puxetani Phil. But Nick and I got curious. How does this leap year every four years? How does it affect the stock market? Jack and I are thinking, on the leap day, on a leap year,

shouldn't the stock market leap ahead? They should leap. It should leap. But they don't. No, it does not. Stocks do not leap on leap day. Yeah, this Jack and I jumped in T-boy style. On average, the Dow slips 0.1% on leap day every four years.

65% of leap days, stocks do the opposite of leaping. Okay, so that's leap days, February 29th. Jack, how about the full leap year? Well, since 1928, the stock market rises an average of 11.7% per year. But on non-leap years, the stock market rises 12%. So non-leap years perform better than leap years do. So stocks, they do bad in leap years. They do worse on leap days.

Called a lag day. So Yetis, enjoy the extra 24 hours of your life the cosmos is giving us today. Investee, celebrate the extra day in 2020. If you're a birthday boy today, happy leap year. This is big for you. You're a investor today. Condolences. It's a lag day.

It might be rough out there today, everybody. Jack, let's hit our three stories. 15 years before this song. Two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm They had an idea that caused a cultural storm It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm Jack Nick Tis 50% that's a fat tip

T-boy City on your at list If you know you know cause we're ready to go We can't wait no more so just start the show Our first story Bitcoin Mania has returned Bitcoin just past $60,000 It is within striking distance Of its all-time high

We're not just in a Bitcoin rally We're specifically in a FOMO stage of that rally. Now, Jack, you're staying in my apartment right now, but I gotta say, we got another guest with us. Welcome back to Ben the Bitcoin. Bitcoin rose for a fifth straight day yesterday. Bitcoin is now up 45% so far this year. Yeah, these Bitcoin is up 45% this year. After jumping 150% last year.

Now, they don't have their laser eyes on their Twitter accounts anymore. Good point, check. But the Bitcoin bulls are louder than ever right now. Bottle service is back in Miami, baby. Now, Nick and I want to sprinkle on some context of the rally that Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency, is on right now. Yeti's Bitcoin's market cap. Which is the value of all the Bitcoin in the world.

Is now worth $1.2 trillion, Jack, the context. That means Bitcoin is worth the same as meta, the publicly traded stock. Yeties, as of this recording right here, Bitcoin's price just hit $62,000. That is not far from the $69,000 record set in November of... of 2021. Now, yaddies, we know what you're thinking because we were thinking it to. Why is Bitcoin out of nowhere suddenly surging this week? There's two theories. Yeah, there are two theories why. The first theory is the Bitcoin ETF. In January, the SEC allowed Bitcoin to be packaged into an exchange traded fund, which makes it just as easy to buy and sell in the stock market

as a stock. Jack and I covered on this pod. We called it Bitcoin's Bitmitsva. And now that it's easier to access Bitcoin investments for the masses, that could be why Bitcoin. But here's the thing, Bessis, we've known about this Bitcoin ETF for a while. It's been approved for a while. So, like, that's not a new reason Bitcoin should rally. Which brings us to the other theory for why Bitcoin is rallying. The having. The having of Bitcoin is an event that happens about every four years when the number of

Bitcoin rewarded to Bitcoin miners is cut in half. We don't totally understand it. No one really does. But everyone's known this was coming for years. So that doesn't explain why it's rallying right now either. Okay, so it's probably not the Bitcoin ETF. It's probably not the Bitcoin halving, which leads Jack and I to our theory, which is FOMO. Yeah, the more Bitcoin rallies, the more people hear about Bitcoin rally, the more people talk about Bitcoin rally.

And the more that they want to get in. It's FOMO. Your buddy is bragging in a text chain about how much money is made on Bitcoin in the past three months. Yeah. That makes everyone in the text chain want to buy Bitcoin. And they probably did this week. Harry's having a pastrami sandwich with Sally and saying, hey, I'll have what she's having. Everyone wants in on the Bitcoin billionaire.

I heard Rachel just bought it. True story. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Bitcoin? FOMO can quickly become no-mo. Yet he's, Jack and I have seen a lot of FOMO rallies before. Like, we've seen him going back to our Wall Street days a decade ago, and this tends to be the last stage of a rally. FOMO rallies are when there's no fundamental reason the thing is going up in price.

It's just emotional buying and momentum. Well, Jack and I think what's driving Bitcoin right now is the same force that drove up many stocks during the pandemic when you were stuck at home and had stimulus checks, money to spend. It's fear of missing out, fear of missing out on all the gains that your buddies have been bragging about. Besties, the frenzied rise of Bitcoin this week with no clear new reason, it feels to us like a FOMO rally. And here's the key. Those who get in at this phase in the rally, the FOMO phase, those are the ones who could lose the most money if the FOMO runs out. So, Yetis, proceed cautiously.

Because FOMO can quickly become nomo. For our second story, Beyond Meat, just had its best day in years. The real surprise for this plant-based meat company, Beyond Meat has gone French. Jack, what is the way you and I always like to describe Beyond Meat? It's the only tech product you can eat. It is Beyond Meat. Based in California, they basically engineered a way to turn peas into meat patties. They just announced their fourth quarter earnings. And Jack?

Revenues fell again. But the stock popped as much as 60% on word that Beyond Meat is dramatically cutting costs. Just like a tech company, Beyond Meat is aiming to boost profits by cutting costs, not boosting revenue. They also just announced the next version of their burger. It's kind of like a software update. Like iPod had new versions and Beyond Meat has a new version of their burgers. It's called the Beyond Meat fourth generation. It has a new recipe with fewer ingredients, less saturated fat, and includes avocado oil. The CEO says it's cleaner and healthier.

So, you know, they upgraded it like engineers would. But Yetis, here's what Jack and I found fascinating about this story. Something surprising. Beyond Meat is hated here in the U.S., but it's beloved abroad. Yeties, for the seventh straight quarter, Beyond Meat sales fell. That is not good. We just said this week on a different episode that Beyond Meat's plant-based meat has proven to be a fad in food.

But Jack, stamp the passports. Because what's going on internationally with Beyond Meat? Last quarter, Beyond Meat sales jumped by 29% abroad, and they're almost the same level as U.S. sales. Yeah, he's Jack and I got curious, so we jumped in further, T-boy style, to the earnings call. The CEO mentioned the United States just once. He mentioned Europe nine times. From Austria to Ireland, Malta to Slovenia. Yadis, if you're in Italy, they're serving Papadelli plant-based.

The CEO said that the trend for plant-based meat is simply stronger in Europe. Besties Beyond Meat stock, it's down 85% from its IPO as American. and consumers spit out plant-based food. But over in Europe, there's hope. They're about to make plant-based burger the Queen of Brussels. I'm sorry, Gar-Sont. I asked for more plant-based meat on my Nutella.

Fritz is chowing down on plant-based brats over that. Stick that in your spetzel, Jack. So what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Beyond Meat? Europeans have a greater taste for sustainability. Daddy's, the core reason that Europeans are loving plant-based meat right now, but Americans are not, it's the environment. Plant-based meat

is actually more expensive than regular meat. True. And it's not very different health-wise. It's not healthier. The one key value that is unique to plant-based meat is that it's better for the environment.

Plants have way smaller carbon and water footprints than cows do. So Beyond Meat's exact say that over in Europe, they're willing to pay more to protect the environment than we in the United States are.

At the end of the day, Beyond Meat isn't a health product. It's a green product. And that's why Beyond Meat is suddenly going French. It just appeals more to European consumers than to us yanks. For our third and final story, it's Teledoc. Teledoc stock dropped 25% last week after admitting that their era of growth is over.

Teledoc's problem can be best explained with a bow and arrow. Sometimes like a company's name just like says the whole business model, doesn't it? Tele. Remote. Doc. Doctors. Remote doctors. This company has two divisions.

And the first is general health. If you're worried about that thing on your thigh, you think you need to get it checked out, you can show a doctor on a teladoc video call. The doctor's going to prescribe you thytastrasol, which you'd clear it all up in just a few days. Give us a call if it takes two to four weeks. And 90 million people have access to Teledoc healthcare through their employer. Now, the other division of this company is BetterHelp, the online therapy brand. You don't need us to explain to you what BetterHelp is. We do it in a podcast ad nearly every episode.

Yeah, they sponsored our podcast before. Great company. So Teledoc is the middleman platform between 30,000 therapists and 450,000 patients. And they take a cut for providing the technology between you and Dr. Zygman Freud. Now, here's the funny thing. You would think that a digital health telemedicine stock in 2024 would be thriving right now, living its best life. About that. Yeah, Jack.

What's the update on the prognosis? The stock fell 25% in one day last week after the CEO said two of the worst words Wall Street can hear. well penetrated. He said that the market for telemedicine was well penetrated. Which basically means there just isn't much growth left in the telehealth market. It means that there's too many competitors fighting over too few customers. The way we see it, it's like if a dentist opened a dentist office next to a bunch of other dentist's office when everyone around them already had a dentist. The doctor won't see you now.

Maybe most people will just never do telehealth healthcare. Maybe people want in-person visits for private, matters like their health. Or maybe they do like digital doctors, but they already have one. Either of those could be the reasons for the market being penetrated. Either way, it's not good for Teledoc, whose stock is now at a multi-year low. But that reminded Jack and me of a takeaway we've been wanting to do for a while. So Jack, can you please prescribe the takeaway for our buddies over at Teledoc? A small one-year change is a huge 10-year change.

Yeties, the CEO said the market is well penetrated. And Teledoc, they only expect 4% growth in revenue this year. That's just not that much. That's a couple percentage point downgrade from the previous growth forecast. I know you're thinking a couple percentage points less, that just doesn't sound like very much. It's not a huge amount, but in five years, that difference becomes huge. In 10 years, that difference becomes huger. To understand that phenomenon, picture a bow and arrow.

If you change the angle of your aim by just a little bit, the arrow is going to end up in a completely different place. And that is what it's like when you make a small change to a growth projection for a company. Even though Teledac only altered the angle of their growth forecast by a little bit, it makes a huge difference where the arrow ends up. Because a small one-year change is a huge 10-year change. Just like a Bowen era. Jack, can you whip up the takeaways force for a leap day? Bitcoin has rallied 45% so far in 2024, and it's boosting the whole crypto industry. We think it's a FOMO rally. And FOMO can quickly become no-mo. For our second story, beyond me, they should consider changing the citizenship to the European Union.

Well, so because Europeans simply have more taste for sustainability. And our third and final story is Teledoc. The Teledoc company got punished on Wall Street because their era of high growth is over. One tiny change in a growth forecast can make a huge long-term difference. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, the U.S. government was scheduled to shut down this weekend as funding was running out, but...

At the last minute, once again, Congress came up with a short-term spending bill to not close the government. And second, Weight Watchers is losing their star board member, Oprah Winfrey. She's stepping down. She's also selling all of her stock of Weight Watchers and donating it to the National Museum of African American History and Culture. Weight Watcher stock dropped 27%. It's a wonderful gesture by Oprah, but it's bad news for WWW. And finally, Marriott's newest service.

Get this. It's Taylor Swift concerts. You can now get Taylor Swift concerts with Marriott points. If you book enough Marriott hotels, then you'll get a free hotel and ticket to the heiress tour. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Yetty Richard Roll from lovely Cleveland, Ohio. Where does the name Cranberry come from? It comes from the Pilgrims, who came to the new world,

saw that cranberries were red like a crane, the bird, and so they named them cranberries. There you go. It's the only berry named after a bird. They could have called it bird berry. That would have been hilarious. Or Cardinal Barry. That was available too. Or fire truck berry.

That would have worked as well. Yeties, you look fantastic for the new Friday. And remember, historically speaking, there is no guarantee of this, but odds are potentially likely the stock market will go down today. But if your buddy's celebrating a birthday today, give them four hugs. Yetis, if you haven't yet drop down and give us a five-star review, that's how we grow the show. Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. Can't wait.

Before we go, a happy birthday to legendary Yeti, Steve Harden, who's turning 36 years old, but really nine years old. Gugoo-Gagga, Steve, Goo-Goo-Gagga. And a happy birthday to Rob Payne in St. Petersburg, Florida, who's turned 40 years old, but really turning 10 years old. Happy birthday to Webb Sansing in Pensacota, Florida. He's turning 12, but he's really turning 3. Yeah, Goo Goo Guy Guy and happy birthday to everyone. And congratulations to Yeti Tom Snyder, who just filed for an LLC with his new company down in Austin.

Congratulations to Carol Jovenile, who's got a new job in consulting down in Houston. And Leishon and Yosimu have their first anniversary in West Palm Beach. Happy anniversary to Guillermo and Carime, who are celebrating in San Antonio, Texas. I guess technically they can't celebrate their anniversaries for another four years, Jack. I think love is timeless? Is that help here?

I think you got it. I think that's the takeaway, Jack. I think that's the takeaway. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins. Because you can't for another four years. This is Jack, Nick own stock are beyond me, and we both own one Bitcoin. A Bitcoin named Ben.

That's our last leap day joke at the pod. Flag day. Last joke for four years, actually. No, we're done here. We're done. No, that was a great finisher about you because we actually can't make these jokes for four more years. Like, the last time we made these jokes like, we weren't a company. Like, you weren't married.

Like, it was a different world, man. It was different, man.