The Best One Yet - 🛩️ “If it’s Boeing, I ain’t going” — Boeing’s original sin 27 years ago. Panera’s initial panini offering. Covid’s 4th birthday.

Episode Date: March 12, 2024

🗽TBOY Live NYC 🍎— Tickets on sale Thursdays here: https://citywinery.com/new-york-city/events/tboy-pod-cs3z0iIt’s the 4th birthday of Covid, so we’re looking at all the way’s the economy’s changed — Cruises are up, Zoom is down, and you live 2x as far from work.Just before Panera does another IPO (Initial Public Offering), the sandwich chain is loosening their food standards — Because IPOs are like financial Ozempic.And Boeing airplanes caused another scary close call in the skies yesterday — And all of Boeing's safety issues can be traced back to one big biz decision.Plus, our 1st ever NYC live show is happening on April 24th — Mark your calendars and click this link to buy tickets starting this Thursday: https://citywinery.com/new-york-city/events/tboy-pod-cs3z0i$BA $PNRA $SPYSubscribe to our newsletter: tboypod.com/newsletterWant merch, a shoutout, or got TheBestFactYet? Go to: www.tboypod.comFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on Youtube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Tuesday, T-Boy, Tuesday, March 12th. And today's pod is the best one yet. It's a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Jack, you've grown out that beard over there because we're recording in Brooklyn this week? Or what's going on?

I'm wearing flannel and looking faux-rugged because I'm headed over to Williamsburg this morning. You know it is the mandatory uniform, Jack. Yiddies, we have a fantastic show for you. Jack, what's on today's pod? For our first story, this week. is the four-year anniversary of the COVID pandemic. So Jack and I are taking a moment to look at what's different and what's the same exactly four years later.

For our second story, it's Panera. The half salad, half soup, and half sandwich chain is going public once again. Panera has made one big change to their standards and we can see it in the bacon. And our third and final story is Boeing. The problems continue for Boeing. Another scary accident in the air yesterday, Fortunately, they landed the plane, though. Jack, if it's Boeing, you may not be going.

There is one reason Nick and I found for Boeing's epic reputational downfall. And we jumped into a T-Boy style. But yet, he's, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Fantastic mix of stories. I have got your shave cream ready for you, Jack. A little bit of wax. As this pod is publishing Tuesday morning, I just arrived in New York City to join Nick who got here last night.

There's a whole lot of history in these New York City streets. Can you break it down for us over there? After Philadelphia, but before Washington, D.C., New York City was the capital of these United States in 1785. New York City founded Wall Street back in 1792. 1988. Nicholas A. Martel was born in New York City. In 1959, Jack's mother was born in New York City. New York City.

It's the home of both the $1 slice of pizza and the $101 manicure. Cash only, not including tip. But Nick and I have a huge announcement that's extremely nice. New York relevant. Yetty, sit down, stand up, and hail a cab again. Because on April 24th, this year, New York City is the home of the T-Boy Live show. That's right. New York City, T-Boy Live, it's happening Wednesday, April 24th.

We can't wait to see you there. The city that never sleeps is getting the pop-biz news that always pops. Nick and I are going to bring all the razzle-dazzle that New York deserves and that the train can handle. And then we're going to throw some sprinkled-dinkle downtown, aren't we, Jack? Because to quote our favorite greater New York City musician Franks, If you can podcast here, you can podcast anywhere. For those interested, here's the details.

Nick, when is the show happening? Jack, the show's happening Wednesday, April 24th, 6 p.m. Where exactly? It's happening at City Winery in meatpacking on the Hudson River. And how can Yetis get involved? Tickets go on sale this Thursday, two days from today. Yetis, you want to be there. We have a link in this episode description where you can buy your tickets on Thursday.

And besties, this happens to be the biggest show in New York City since Harry met Sally. We'll have what she's having, and you will too. So get ready to snag a ticket like it's a reservation at Carbone. Like it's a box seat at Yankee Stadium. Like it's a rent-controlled apartment in the West Village, Dorman included. You're going to want one of these tickets, okay? So Yetis, check out the description in today's episode.

The link is live, and you can buy tickets on Thursday. We are so freaking pumped for our first New York City live show. Snag those tickets while you can. I'm walking here. Until then, though, Jack, let's hit our three stories. 15 years before this song Two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm They had an idea that caused a cultural storm

It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm Jack Nick, that's it this 50% that's a fat tip Tea Boy City on your at list If you know you know because we're ready to go We can't wait no more So just start the show Start the show

First a quick word from our sponsor For our first story This week is the four year anniversary of the pandemic. On COVID's fourth birthday, we're not singing at a song. We're actually going to look back at the economic story of these past four years. Four years since the start of the pandemic. That is almost half a decade, man.

That is a serious amount of time. Since the pandemic began, you could have gone to college and completed a four-year degree. Jack, since the pandemic began, you could have competed in two different Olympics. Like, I can see a long jumping on skiing and I could see a running in the marathon. Haven't there somehow been three Olympics since COVID-Bing? I feel like there have been because of a delay. It's been a surprisingly long time since the pandemic began, and it's been messing with our minds.

But we want to go back to exactly four years and one day ago. On March 11th, 2020. Four years ago, there were four events that happened on that single day, March 11th that turned a health story into the only story. First, on March 11th, the NBA canceled the rest of the basketball season. And that was the first thing to get COVID canceled. Then Tom Hanks announced that he got COVID. The first famous person to get sick with the disease.

On that same day, President Trump issued a travel ban forbidding anyone from Europe to come to the United States. The first of many travel restrictions. And finally, the World Health Organization made it official by formally declaring that COVID-19 was a pandemic. A global epidemic. Those four events all happened on the same day, March 11, 2020. Now, back on March 11, 2020, America had only tallied 38 official COVID-Benzuela. 19 deaths. But today, on March 11th, 2024, there have been over one million deaths in the United States. It's been four long, crazy, and wild years. So much happened. We want to compare and

contrast March 2020 to March 24. Because as Jack and I were preparing for this story, we notice there's some really shocking differences that you did not expect except when you look at the numbers. The biggest difference has to be in the prevalence of remote work. And here's the data. Yet is there has been a 5x jump in the number of remote work days that everyone is using. Remote work has basically become institutionalized. It's one of the huge megatrends of the pandemic that did not reverse itself. And here's another interesting thing, Jack and I discovered. Four years ago, the average American lived 10 miles away from work.

But today, because of remote work, the average American lives 27 miles away from where they work. That's almost a tripling of the average commute time in the United States. But if you look at the average commute, the numbers are different depending on your your income. Then it gets even more interesting because the lowest income workers still live close to work. The lowest income Americans still live 11 miles from where they work. But the highest income Americans live even further away from work. It's the high income CEOs who are zooming in from Jackson Hole. They're the ones that skew this commute situation to a really long distance. Boss can't talk right now on the chairlift. Now when it comes to travel besties, we see even more

shocking differences between now and four years ago. Four years ago. Four years ago. airline travel completely plummeted. It plummeted by 96% from normal levels. We were all wondering, am I ever going to actually get to visit Bali again? Is that even going to be physically possible? Four years later, we can say, yes, you will visit Bali if you want to. Because Yetis, air travel today is not just where it was before the pandemic. It is 10% higher than it was before the pandemic. So air travel has completely returned. What about events? Well, four years ago, on March 11th, 2020, literally every, concert got canceled from the Rolling Stones to Avril Levine. We wondered, will this change live events

for the rest of time? Are we just going to wear headsets to attend live events from now on? Avril, are we never going to get to see you in person as he always promised us? The answer is no. In fact, this month, Live Nation is celebrating their highest sales ever as people completely return to concerts. And Taylor Swift just set the record with the first ever one billion dollar concert tour. So when it came to travel on events, they both dropped down to zero and then surged back with authority. But here's the funny thing for Jack and me. It's not just down and then up that we find interesting. It's also confusingly the up and then down trends compared to four years ago. Four years ago, Zoom went up. The stock jumped 400% early on in the pandemic. But today,

compared to four years ago, Zoom stock is actually 40% lower. Shockingly, the pandemic was a net negative for Zoom. So if you add it all up, basically the pandemic, it changed where we live, but then it didn't really change how we're living. Yeah, like a lot of people, you know, may have moved. But then when they moved there, they sort of returned to their pre-pandemic habits. Apparently, they then decided to get on an airplane and then travel and go to concerts everywhere, Jack. More than they used to. Yeah, they did. Make it up for lost time still. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies looking back on March 11th, 2020? The pandemic shows the power of not panicking. Yeah, these let's start with some context here. The worst day for the stock market so far this year,

January 31st, what happened to the S&P 500, Jack? It fell by 1.5%. But what was the worst day for the stock market in March 2020, Nick? Four years ago, the S&P 500 fell 15%. The worst day of March 2020 was 10 times worse than the worst day of this year so far. And by the end of that, panic four years ago, stocks had fallen 37%. Now, it would have been understandable if you had panicked too and sold all your investments because cash can't lose value, right?

But looking back in hindsight, that actually was the worst thing you could have done. Because Wall Street has completely recovered from the pandemic panic. We actually now sit at an all-time record high that is way higher than it was four years ago. After falling 15% in March 2020, the S&P 500 is a hundred and 21% higher now than four years ago. So four years after the pandemic, here's the investing lesson for us all. There's power in not panicking. for our second story. Panera, the half soup, half salad, half sandwich chain is going public again.

But you may have noticed something changing at Panera, and Nick and I found the reason why. Yeah, isn't it like your preferred charging station like right near a Panera? Are you always dipping in there? You've called me from a Panera before, I remember. White River Junction, right? We're 89 and 91 meet. We stop at this EV station right next to Panera. I get the passion papaya iced green tea every time.

That's something else, man. Yet he's, I'm like trying to go over podcast stories with Jack, and he's like, I got garlic caoli in my mouth. I can't talk right now. Anyway, he loves that Panera. But yet he's, Panera, if you haven't been, it's like the anti-Atkins stock, right, Jack? At Panera, they carry more carbs on the balance sheet than cash.

Let's put it that way. Profits? Nah, pumpernickel. That's what they got. Find me a restaurant chain. That's more obsessed with bread. I mean, they're so obsessed, Jack. Their name literally means era of bread.

Panera. That's what it is. Panera. I didn't know that until you just told me today. It's a St. Louis-based bakery and Shane, and they've got 2,000 locations, not too shabby. It's a bakery and a cafe, and they're pulling off a Wall Street comeback this year. Because Yeti seven years ago, Panera was a publicly traded stock. You could buy it in the market.

But in 2017, Nick and I covered it on our newsletter, Panera got acquired by JAB, a food-focused private equity firm that wanted to make some changes to the chain. So in the last few years, they've made some changes. Like they've instituted a loyalty program that now has 52 million Americans and Canadians eating at Paneras. So that P.E. firm figures, job well done. Let's cash out and take our profit. Cha-ching, cha-ching. They want to do a second IPO for Panera, and they're hoping to sell it for a much higher price than they bought it for. So sometime this year, you're going to be able to buy shares of Panera while you share your broccoli, cheddar soup, and half salad and half sandwich. It is an IPO. Initial Panini on.

referring. Panini is such a hilarious word. But yet he's here's what Jack and I found fascinating about this story. Have you noticed something different at your local Panera recently? The classic Panera artwork on the walls, the pictures of the fields and the farms, so wholesome? Gone. How about the Panera posters that say no antibiotics ever? Gone.

What about the menu label of grass-fed free-range beef? Jack, I'm sorry to tell you as you drink that passion, papaya iced cream. green tea, those are gone too. Because Yeti's, Reuters reports that Panera has relaxed their food principles from the interior design to what they put in the menu. Now, Panera says that we continue to hold ourselves to high standards, but apparently not the highest standards. How would you describe your standards, Greg? I'd say high to quite high. Now, Yeti's Jack and I jumped in tea boy style here. And the wildest example of Panera loosening their food standards is with bacon. Panera recently wanted to add an avocado bacon melt to the menu, which sounds delicious,

but Panera faced a problem with that. The old Panera had such high food standards that they couldn't source enough antibiotic-free bacon for their new bacon product. Well, the new Panera decided they're okay with antibiotic-raised pork, so they're selling 36% more bacon than they were before. Jack, why is Panera lowering all their standards right now? To save money, Rerters reports they'll save $21 million a year with their lower food standards. Panera, they're basically shopping at Kroger grocery store instead of the local co-op farmers market. Nick, they got a lot of half sandwich, half salad, half soups to make. They need to save grocery bills too.

But it's actually bigger than that, Yeti's a lot bigger. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies over at Panera? An IPO is like Financial OZEPIC. Yeties, from Jacks and my Wall Street experience, we can tell you that what Panera is doing right now is totally normal before an IPO. As a company prepares to go public, they want to look as good and profitable as possible to the public investors that are going to buy their stocks.

So often soon-to-be public companies try to trim a little bit of the fat and cut some cuttable costs. Yeah, they review payroll. They cut the extra perks that they think are unnecessary. They streamline the reporting structure and they simplify the menu. And sometimes, sometimes they've reduced the quality of their products

if they think it won't hurt sales too much. It's all about getting in good economic shape before that big public market day. And that's why the way Jack and I see it, preparing for an IPO is like taking financial Ozempic. Before debuting on public markets, companies need to get financially fit. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, Boeing just had another scary plane event yesterday. That is their third in a week.

But if you want to know what really went wrong at Boeing, It all goes back to one decision they made 30 years ago. Jack, full disclosure, just landed in New York from San Francisco, flew on a Boeing 757. It actually worked great. Oh, that's good. I'm here. One piece, baby, one piece.

You know, I recently moved my loyalty to United Airlines from Delta. I'm not judging you, but I'm judging you. All they fly is 737 maxis. Good luck with that, Jack. But yet he's yesterday, a Boeing 787 abruptly dropped mid-flight. 50 people actually got injured yesterday. What happened yesterday was reportedly like turbulence, but way worse. There was a technical problem with the airplane that caused an awful jerk while they were way up in the sky.

Now, fortunately, Latam Airlines landed safely in New Zealand, but 10 people had to go to the hospital. They were banged up from this Boeing flight. Yeties, with Boeing's awful safety record recently, it's no wonder flyers are trying to avoid flying in Boeing airplanes. In fact, Jack, what was that wild thing you discovered on kayak, like the travel search website? On kayak, you can now search for flights that don't fly on Boeing 737 maxes. They added that filter. You're like, I only want non-stops. I only want a business class.

I do not want to be on a Boeing plane. Yet there was once a time when pilots and passengers would say, if it ain't Boeing, I ain't going. But now, passengers are saying, it is Boeing, I ain't going. But here's the interesting thing Nick and I found about this story. Boeing safety problems didn't come all of a sudden. They can actually be traced back to one decision they made 27 years. years ago. Yeti's recently, the team at last week tonight, the TV show with John Oliver, they dove into Boeing's history. And they discovered how management made a profound shift in strategy 27 years ago.

Management replaced their focus on safety with a focus on profits. And it all started when they acquired an airplane-making rival called McDonnell Douglas back in 1997. But here's the problem, yeties. McDonnell Douglas had a bad safety record when Boeing acquired them in 1997. McDonald-Douglas made the infamous DC-10, which was like one step up from a paper airplane. It was responsible for over 1,100 fatalities. And despite that brutal record, Boeing adopted McDonald's cost-cutting gospel company-wide for all of Boeing after the deal. First, Boeing started outsourcing the actual making of the plane because it was more profitable that way. Boeing sold away all the manufacturing and just basically became an assembly company.

Then, Boeing moved the executives from Seattle, where the planes are actually made, way over to Chicago instead. Boeing moved the CEO away from the manufacturing to get closer to the money. And finally, Boeing cut a bunch of safety corners, which are well documented in the investigation of those two 737 max crashes. Add it all up, Yetis and Boeing, once a brand that inspired American confidence, is now associated with blown off doors. And loose screws. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies? over at Bowen. Reputations don't last forever. Reputations require investment. Yeah, it is for the first 80 years of Boeing, they invested in quality and safety and they earned a reputation. Like we said,

if it ain't Boeing, I ain't going. But for the last 30 years, they invest in one thing and one thing only, the stock price. In the five years before those 2737 max crashes that killed a lot of people, Boeing sent 92% of their cash flow to shareholders. 92% to shareholders, but just 8% to investments in itself. Boeing spent 92% of their cash flow on dividends and share buybacks, not on research or development. Boeing didn't spend money on factories, on innovation, on training workers, on training pilots. Boeing did not invest in itself.

They were razor-focused on the share price instead of on safety. Boeing's recent CEOs, they inherited the best reputation in air travel. They squandered it all by failing to invest in the things that earned them that strong reputation, safety. So it's a reminder to everyone in business. Reputations don't last forever. If you don't invest in your reputation, then it's going to rust, it's going to erode, and eventually it's going to disappear.

Yeah, can you whip up the takeaways for us for T-Boy Tuesday? On March 11th, 2020, exactly four years ago, the pandemic truly began. And the investing lesson from the pandemic is to not panic. Every stock market crisis in history has eventually recovered. Second takeaway, what do we have, Jack? Panera is loosing their food standards to save some money before their IPO. Because an IPO is like financial ozempic. It gets you financially fit.

And our third and final storing is Boeing. Their downfall is actually the result of a decision they made 27 years ago. Prioritized profit over safety. Reputations. They don't last forever. reputations require investment. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, the lost winner of 2023,

2024 is coming to an end. Get this. The average temperatures in the lower 48 states were shocking 5.4 degrees above average this winter, according to new NOAA data. And second, it isn't just the four-year anniversary of COVID. It's also the one-year anniversary of the Silicon Valley bank crisis. One year ago, I was on paternity leave. We actually were taking a short break from the

pod because of it, but techies and venture capitalists were making a run on Silicon Valley Bank. I was a Silicon Valley Bank client and I was getting a lot of awkward, scary emails one year ago, Jack. It shook our confidence in regional mid-sized banks and regulators are still trying to update rules because of it. And finally, South by Southwest just kicked off down in lovely Austin, Texas. What is South by Southwest, Nick? It is the tech industry, the media industry, and the music industry getting together for one big play date and Austin, Jack. Lots of big corporate announcements happen, and we'll probably cover a couple of them on the pod this week. Now, time for the best fact yet.

This one sent in by Jumanus Sadei from lovely Ann Arbor, Michigan. This is a great trivia question. What is the oldest continuously operating degree awarding university in the world? First thought, Oxford, Cambridge. Well, it's actually a university founded in the year 8, 59 in Fez, Morocco. It's the university Carawan. This university was founded almost 1,400 years ago. Nick, it's three times older than Harvard University.

It was founded by a Muslim woman named Fatma Al-Farria. For a thousand years, this university taught astronomy, medicine, math, law, theology. and now probably social media influencing. Yetis the oldest university in the world, founded by a Muslim woman 1,200 years ago. You can't get a better fact on Ramadan and Women's History Month, Jack. Yeties, you are looking fantastic today. And if you're roaming the streets in New York City,

you're looking extra fantastic and we can't wait to see you. Hold on. If you're roaming the streets in New York City, look up because Nick and I are going all the way up today to make an announcement live on Instagram Live. And then for safety reasons, look both ways before you look up. Seriously, Eddies, follow us at T-BoyPod on Instagram for our live announcement later today. Tickets go on sale Thursday. In the meantime, get ready.

We can't wait to see him. It's going to be a T-Boy. And before we go, congratulations to Yeti's Patty Badger Serino and Eric, who met in an elevator during COVID four years ago and just got engaged in San Francisco. I guess they met before social distancing. I assume it was on March 11th, Jack. And Ona Salsman in Manhattan Beach, California, just got a new job and also just got engaged. Let's see some ring picks. What the heck?

The happy birthday to Caleb Wayne down in Austin, Texas. And happy birthday to Alex Guo, who just got promoted over in New York City. And Tawah Hill, a former Texas cheerleader, just got a new job at TikTok over in D.C., we assume working on policy. And a huge shout out to Mrs. Remley's marketing class over in Kearney, Missouri. They've been listening to the show every day and are about to go on spring break, and they're going to listen every day of spring break, aren't they, Nick? And Anakin Benzin, a two-month-old baby in San Jose. His parents got him to listen to our snooze pod over the weekend, Jack,

and apparently he slept through the whole night. Anybody who's short on sleep right now, by the way, listen to the snooze pod that we've published on Saturday. It'll doze you right off to sleep. This is Jack. Nick and I both own ETFs of the S&P 500. Thank you.