The Best One Yet - “If LaCroix cans went public” — Snap’s maps. USPS’ coin toss. Ardagh’s double-trend wave.

Episode Date: February 25, 2021

Snapchat’s stock is at an all-time high, but the real story here is Snap Maps. The US Postal Service played kingmaker with 2 stocks. And fresh off of bottling your White Claw, Ardagh is going public via SPAC, catching 2 trends at once.$SNAP $GRSV $OSK $WKHSGot a SnackFact? Tweet it @RobinhoodSnacks @JackKramer @NickOfNewYorkWant a shoutout on the pod? Fill out this form:https://forms.gle/KhUAo31xmkSdeynD9Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. And this is Snacks Daily. It is Thursday, the new Friday, February 25th. Stocks rebounded yesterday, and the Dow closed at a record high. Jack, I just realized something. Kevin Spacey is Kaiser Soze. Tesla is Bitcoin.

This is our best one yet. What's our first story? For our first story, Snapchat stock hit an all-time high, like all-time, all-time. All-time, all-time. We're looking at the future profit puppy Snap Maps. For our second story, the United States Postal Service just chose. a winner and chose a loser. Jack, we got ourselves some coin flip stocks. One decision determines boom or crash. For our third and final story, Ardaa is the first ever spack we've seen of this

kind. We've never seen something like this. It is a pure play LeCroy can stock called Arda. Yes, it is. But Snackers, before we jump into that, honestly, a wonderful mix of stories today, Jack, the fried chicken wars, they've come full circle. Turns out the second most ordered delivery item during the pandemic is the fried chicken sandwich. Fried chicken sandwich, number one, it's the chicken wing. It's the chicken wing is number one. I figure, why don't we have turkey wings? Why don't we have fried turkey sandwiches? It's like the same thing. It's the size of your face, but like who else wouldn't, I mean, why wouldn't you want that? Let's flatten the demand curve of when we eat turkey, so it's not just Thanksgiving. It's a fair point, but in the meantime, we've got to travel back to summer 2019.

Popeyes kicks off the fried chicken wars. They put a fried chicken patty on a briege bun, and sales jumped by 18%. Fighting words, for Chick-fil-A, which happens to sell one out of every four fried chicken sandwiches in these United States. Then Wendy's launched fried chicken sandwich. Then Burger King launched one. And then before we could even take a breath, in the last month, four big food chains have also launched their own fried chicken sandwiches. Shake Shack is making a Korean fried chicken sandwich. Jack's Wheat Green is doing a fried chicken planty kind of a thing. And then this week, McDonald's went nuclear launching three fried chicken sandwiches. Competitive advantage, the key is the crinkle-cut

pickle, more surface area, maximum taste. Taco Bell doesn't do sandwiches, but they have FOMO, so they have a fried chicken taco they just launched. But Jack, now we're coming full fried chicken circle. Popeyes has launched another thing. This time, a fried fish sandwich. Same formula, different white meat. Will this kick off a fried fish sandwich war, or will we see KFT instead? What are you thinking? Kentucky fried turkey. Oh, I thought you meant Kentucky fried tilapia. Let's hit our three stores. You're tuned into snacks daily.

We spoke to the lawyers and we got to get something legal out the way. The snacks about to hear ain't food. It's air candy. They don't reflect the views of the Robberhood family. It's all informational just so. We're not recommending any securities. It's not a research report or investment advice. Not an offer or sale of a security.

Right. Snacks is digestible. Business news for you. Robahood Financial, LLC, member FINRA, FNRA, SIPC. For our first story, Snapchat razzled and dazzled pretty much everyone with plans for Snap Maps. That's the case. Snap is sticking ads in your phone book, but not in the middle of your phone calls.

Okay, Snapchat stock, like the generation of 13 to 24-year-olds, it caters to, it deserves your respect right now. In late 2018, Snapchat stock was languishing at five bucks a share. Five dollars a share. The only social media company not based. in the Bay Area. They couldn't really figure out the whole ads, profits thing while they're in Santa Monica. They're based in Santa Monica, like you said. They still haven't figured out profits, but they have growth. They have lots of growth. Get these number Snackers. Revenues over at Snapchat rose a freaky 62% last quarter, Jack, compared to Facebook and Twitter. Almost double Facebook's revenue growth

and more than double Twitter's revenue growth. But yesterday, executives told investors that they're expecting 50% growth to continue for Snapchat for like the next few years. Several years was their words. Years. The stock used to be $5 a share, but after yesterday's bullish forecast, it is $70 a share. Oh, and then Jack, add this to the celebration cake. The company reached $100 billion for the very first time in value. Zoom celebration cake. But while everyone's focused on Snapchat stories like the OG zucking, Snap Maps is Snap's future profit puppy. Think of Snap Maps as Find Your Friends meets Google Maps, and it's right there in Snapchat.

Jack, you zoom in on the East Village. You see our buddy Timmy. He is snapping his way across 14th Street, and he's not looking both ways. Jess is live snapping a breakdancing thing going on in Union Square. Why not? And Carthick, my buddy, saw Aaron Judge, hit a dinger in the Bronx.

Now, Snapchat has 90% of 13 to 24-year-old Americans, which is a huge percentage. And all of those millennials and Gen Z's, their bitmojis, are hanging out on Snap Maps for all their friends to see. Snaps, he's a huge opportunity. They can monetize through ads for local businesses on Snap Maps. Tim Mule starts seeing ads for bars and restaurants in his Map app, just like he does on Google Maps today. Exactly. So, so far, Snapchat's dependent on national brands for, like, all the ads you see on Snapchat.

But this could be the key to getting advertising business from small and medium-sized businesses. And then as Snapchat pointed out to us, the millennial and GenC demo has, you know, about a trillion dollars in spending power. That's why Snap's also hiring a bunch of ad salespeople to get big brands to notice. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in Snap Maps? Snapchat's sticking ads in your phone book, not in your phone calls. Okay, that's the strategy here. The only place Snapchat's not talking about monetizing with ads, your direct messages. DMs are like a phone call.

and imagine how annoying it would be if your phone call got interrupted with a Pepsi ad. Jack, I'm picturing it right now. Now, Snapchat, it's leaving your DMs alone. It is not trying to invade your conversations. Phone books, on the other hand. Okay. We're like okay seeing ads and phone books.

We're used to it. Back in the day, they were huge. Now, you browse through the phone book, you're looking for something. It's fine that there are paid posts in there. And Snapchat happens to have a vast phone book eligible for ads. For example, SnapMaps, Snap stories, Discover sections, spotlight, all those features are basically like a phone book on Snapchat.

To get investors excited, Snap is talking about monetizing phone books hard, driving 50% revenue growth for years. But to keep you happy, Snapchat's not touching your phone calls. For our second story, the U.S. Postal Service has given its rose to a single truck company. Snackers, warning, some stocks can be like a coin toss. Okay, first, before we should just get this out of the way, Jack. Love the Postal Service. Kind of love the logo. The logo hasn't changed since 1993. And if you take an old New York Giants logo,

which is good. And today's Philadelphia Eagles, that's the Postal Service. I like what you're doing, Jack. I mean, basically whoever did the Amtrak one, probably did the USPS one. Yes, it feels like exactly the same. And the trucks for the U.S. Postal Service

are just as old and outdated. Honestly, you should go and say hi and get to know your local postal worker because a majority of these trucks don't have air conditioning. Well, they actually are getting new trucks, Nick. They announced yesterday, who won the contract for the next generation of USPS delivery trucks? It is a big contract for the Postal Service.

And the winner is Ashkosh Bagash. Ashkosh Corporation, based in Ashkosh, Wisconsin. Great city, great town. Not Ashkosh, the child clothing from your youth. They're neighbors, though. They're right down the street. One does denim overalls, the other does giant things. And the giant things company, that's Ashkoshkosh Corp.

$8 billion industrial company publicly traded since the 80s. If it has a cockpit, they probably make this thing. Trucks that have cockpits. That's what they specialize them, like fire trucks, garbage collection trucks, and U.S. Postal delivery trucks. They really are masters of the trucks where the right side of the truck has the steering wheel. That's the key. Right. And where the doors are always open because there's no air conditioning in these delivery vans. This is really good news for Oshkosh because they're getting a nearly $500 million sum up to front to make 165,000 new post office trucks. Naturally, Oshkosh stock jumped by 9% on news of this deal. A little bit of surprise and disappointment here because they're going to make all these trucks,

some will be electric, not all of the trucks will be electric. Even their new trucks are going to be a little old-fashioned. Overall, though, these trucks, they look like a large sneaker on wheels. That's what they look like. It's got this thing that juts out in the front that looks like the brim of a baseball hat. It does. It's a flat brim situation. It's like a duck. It's a daffy duck. deliver them. It's a duck. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Oshkosh. Some stocks are a coin toss, depending on one thing. They could rise big or fall big. It all kind of seems to come down to one thing. Now, the winner of this U.S. post office deal, it was Oshkosh, but how about the loser? Because there was a loser. Workhorse. Yep. That is a stock that is one big coin toss. Its value

depended on winning this U.S. Postal Service deal. Workhorse based in Ohio didn't win the deal. the stock has plummeted 50% since Monday because it didn't win the deal. Now, take Oshkosh, which is not a coin toss stock. If they had lost this deal instead of winning it, they probably would have been fine. That's why their stock only rose 9% on this great news. Workhorse, though, is a coin toss stock and they lost the coin toss. So as companies mature, they tend to get more diversified. They tend to get more resilient to like big different outcomes.

But until they do, coin toss stocks depend on something they can't control. For our third and final story, Ireland's Arda is officially the strangest. Honestly, this is the weirdest strangest back Jack and I have ever seen. It's also the first pureplay LeCroi-Cam stock. Yes, it is. We've ever seen. Never seen anything like that. Bottling in Ireland for 89 years. Jack, they've got two of the oldest bottling factories here on planet Earth. Well, they're in the glass and can business, and guess what country first made a glass bottle? I feel like I should say, Venice? I would have accepted Egypt or Mesopotamian. Okay, that's all of the above situation.

But today, like in today's time, Snackers, there is a complicated situation going on with Ardaa's SPAC. The Mesopotamians wouldn't know how to handle a SPAC of an already public company. Honestly, we've never seen something like this. And today, Arda, it's really two companies in one. First, they get in half their revenues from aluminum cans. The other part is the glass bottle business.

Yes, it is. And they're spitting off the aluminum can part, because that part seems to be the more exciting part right now. Okay, so the old glass bottle business is like the old Ardaa, but the new aluminum can business is an $8.5 billion company getting acquired by us back. And five years ago, Ardaa's business was two things. It was entirely beer and soda.

Today, their business is driven by La Croy, White Claw, and like the rando kombucha company in Portland, Oregon. But here's what fascinated Jack and me. This new company, Ardaa metal packaging, they seem to have caught the rare, elusive double trend wave. Yes, this aluminum can company is enjoying a short-term trend and a long-term trend. Okay, so here's the short-term trend that they've jumped on to. You're not getting beer at the bar. You're popping a canned IPA, Akaza at home. Everything is getting canned during the pandemic because bars are closed.

From Rose to Negroni, Arda is canning it. That's the short-term trend. But the long-term trend is that plastic bottles are getting phased out by big brands from Coca-Cola to Nestle. Because of climate change. And according to Arda, aluminum cans are infinitely recyclable, which is impressive. Their words sounds like a Marvel character. So a piece of aluminum could be one can from the Mesopotamians and the same can today, just like cleaned and melted. Disney, again, this sounds like a movie. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Arda? Can a commodity conquer a trend or even a double trend? Okay, Snackers, this is a pure play canning stock, and it is selling aluminum shovels to the

Seltzer Gold Rush right now. The problem, the drink you're drinking, you might think is unique, but an aluminum can is a commodity product. Coke and Nestle, they're happy to use Ardaz cans, or they're just as happy to use arrivals cans if there's a price difference. Because commoditized products like aluminum cans are undifferentiated, so all you care about is the lowest price. Yeah, Ball Corp, Crown Holdings, canned pack, these are just a few of other big names and big canning that could just undercut Harbaugh. That competition and that ruthless price competition is why Ardaa makes just 0.5% profit margin. Zero point five percent profit margins. Even though Ardaa is enjoying a double trend, short term and long term, it can't really capitalize

on it. Commodities can't conquer a trend? Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us over there? Snap has had an all time high because it's sticking ads all over your phone book. By the way, wild statjack, and I noticed, Snapchat's app is opened an alarming 33 times a day on average. The U.S. Postal Service is getting new trucks made by Oshkosh. Workhorse lost the coin toss, and that's why its stock is down 50%. For our third and final story, Arga is kind of spelled like Jim Harbaugh, actually. Yeah, it is.

And they're a pure play La Cray can company. Cans are commodities so they can't really conquer a trend. Now, time for our snack fact. This one's sent in by James Stewart. James Pot is yours. James Stewart Jr. is the first African-American to win a national American motorsports championship. He won his first motocross title in 2002 at the age of 16 and added five more national titles during his career. He revolutionized the sport of motocross and his techniques are now standard practice at the highest level.

He has a crazy statistic where he won 100% of the races he entered between 2002 and the end of 2008 when he avoided crashing. and even then he won some races that he did crash in. My favorite quote of his is that we all look the same with our helmets on. Okay, wild snack fact. Within the snack fact, he won 100% of the races he crashed in. I don't think that's what he said. He won 100% of the races he didn't crash it. And some that he crashed in too. Snackers, enjoy your Thursday. It is the new Friday. Jack and I can't wait to be with you tomorrow. If you got a buddy looking for a morning podcast, H-Y-H-H-Y-S-D. Have you had your snacks daily. They'll love you, you'll love them.

See you tomorrow. If you know, you know. And before we go, some heavy shoutouts here. Russell in Mexicali, Mexico, he wants to know if Claudia will be his girlfriend. Claudia, I'll tell you, Russell's got gumption. And congrats to Tom in Pennsylvania, who just got a vasectomy. Tom, you're a legend. And happy birthday to hide true in Philadelphia.

And Grace Weller in Boston. And Simon Inge in San Francisco. And Alejandro Moreno in San Juan, Puerto Rico. And Jeremy Kelly in Richmond, Virginia. Happy birthday, Shirley S in Atlanta, Georgia. And Kyle Martin in Springville, Utah. And Caitlin Stevenson in Fort Worth, Texas. And Jessica Carlson and Carter are from Fort Collins, Colorado, not Fourth Worth, Texas. And to anyone else celebrating anything today, make it a T-Boy.

Celebrate the wins. The Robin Hood Snacks podcast you just heard reflects the opinions of only the hosts who are associated persons of Robin Hood Financial LLC and does not reflect the views of Robin Hood Markets, Inc. or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. The podcast is for informational purposes only and is not intended to serve as a recommendation to buy or sell any security and is not an offer or sale of a security.

The podcast is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis of any investment decision. Robin Hood Financial LLC, member FINRA, SIPC.