The Best One Yet - 🦈 “I’m out” — Shark Tank’s China trade deal. Nvidia’s $5T flowers. Fruitist’s $1B blueberry. +Candy Salad Trick-or-Treat

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Thursday, the new Friday, October 30th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop-ins-this news stories you need to know today. All right, Jack, I got one more costume to add to our business-themed costume list. You ready for this one?

Starting point is 00:00:16 Yes. Robocop Brian Chesky. I'm not following. You know the story to yesterday on how, like, they're cracking out of parties over at Airbnb? Oh, yeah, the AI party police? Because Brian Chesky's like Liam Neeson and Taken. If you host a party in Halloween, he will. find you, and he will kill you. His particular set of skills is an algorithm. He's a Jack

Starting point is 00:00:36 dude. I wouldn't mess with them at all, Jack. But three fantastic stories for today's show. What are we got for the T-boy? For our first story, Invidia just became the first company ever to pass a $5 trillion valuation. Because Nvidia's AI computer chips aren't like railroad tracks. They're like flower bouquets. And we'll explain. For our second story, it's Fruitist, a startup that invented jumbo blueberries the size of golf balls. Yeah, true story. Now, Fruitist is getting big Wall Street money because their blueberries have made character energy. And our third and final story. President Trump is meeting President Xi today to talk trade, but we want to talk Shark Tank. Because if you want to understand the trade war, you just have to watch this season of Shark Tank.

Starting point is 00:01:20 But Yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. And for that reason, I'd like to hear our three stories. Shocker, every new story this week is about the record high prices of candy. Chocolate prices have doubled in 2024. They're up another 29% so far this year. The 100 grand bar cost 250 grand now. Jack, even gummy bears saw a 15% price pop in the last year. And there's no chocolate. No chocolate. Sugar inflation. It's not sweet for anyone, including dentists. But consumers have found a clever solution to this year's candy conundrum. It's called the candy salad. The candy salad in this Economy. Candy salads are the new TikTok trick-or-treat trick. Kind of like a fruit salad, but not fruit. Candy's in there. Yeah, you basically take 12 different candy bags. You open them up and

Starting point is 00:02:05 you pour them into a salad bowl. That's a candy salad. Your base can be Twix's and Reese's cups. That's a solid foundation, Jack. And then your toppings can be Eminems, Hershey's Kisses, and Baby Roots. I like it. It's a well-balanced selection. What about some nerd clusters bedazzled on top? Oh, Jack, nerd clusters. That's the garnish on the salad. But this is more than a TikTok trend. Because Ferrara, the owner of Nutella, just launched a candy salad kit. The financial key, by the way, is using

Starting point is 00:02:33 tongs to serve the children who knock on your door. That way, you control the quantity and therefore the costs. The only controversial candy salad question, though, do you include candy corn? I mean, technically corn is a vegetable, man. So, yeah,

Starting point is 00:02:49 it's healthy for you. Jack, let's hit on three stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast. met in the dorm. They had an idea that caused a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. T-boy city on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

Starting point is 00:03:29 For our first story, Nvidia just became the world's first $5 trillion company because of one phenomenon that everyone forgets. about. Invidia's AI computer chips are actually a perishable good. Yeah, it is, it took Nvidia over 6,000 days to reach a $1 trillion valuation. But Jack, how long did it take them to hit $5 trillion bucks? Only 600 days later. Not too shabby. Basties, Nvidia. They used to make super fast chips for video game consoles. Now they're powering AI. Invidia is just printing compute the last few years, and they can name their price, and big tech will buy the chips. And Nvidia just hosted their first conference held in Washington, D.C. over on Tuesday. And they announced that orders for their Blackwell GPUs have reached $500 billion through 2026. Now that's a profit puppy,

Starting point is 00:04:21 because Nvidia, yeah, they're charging a 4x markup on those chips. That's right. They make the world's best chips, and it cost them $1 to make. They sell them for $4. Invita, they price their Blackwell chips like Hermes presses its burke and bags. They keep raising the price, and tech companies keep paying for them. Yeah, big tech, they are fighting over each and every one of those chips, ordering $500 billion worth them by the new year. I'm sorry, Jack, it's early in the pod, but... Yeah.

Starting point is 00:04:48 It's by next year, but I appreciate the cha-ching. But Jack, can you please sprinkle on some context into the just sheer magnitude of NVIDIA right now? If NVIDIA does $500 billion of sales next year, that will be 20 times. larger than their revenue from three years ago. 20x larger. In fact, Nvidia is such a big deal right now that Blackwell, the word, the name of their chip,

Starting point is 00:05:12 is on the agenda for President Trump's meeting today with President Xi of China. And those Blackwell chips, by the way, they're now made in America for the first time. Jensen Huang announced it this week in Washington, D.C. That's right. TSM's new factories in Arizona. They broke ground in 2021,

Starting point is 00:05:28 but now they are rolling off those chips from the assembly line. It's huge progress in the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing that started with Trump's first presidency, continued with Biden, and is now continuing with Trump too. But, Jack, pause the pod for a sec. Can we go back to those epic Blackwell computer chips, please? Guess what, Nick? Their replacement is already under development. No way.

Starting point is 00:05:47 And the replacement's replacement has already been announced. Oh, besties, that is both a blessing and a curse for artificial intelligence as an industry. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Nvidia? AI chips are not like railroad tracks or telephone wires. They're like flowers. You see, Eddie's, every two to three years, AI processing chips become obsolete because Nvidia launches a newer, better, faster chip. Hopper was the chip from 2022 to 2024, Blackwell was the Nvidia chip from 2024 to 26, both named after famous computer scientists. But get this, Nvidia's already announced the Rubin chip that'll be on sale next year,

Starting point is 00:06:27 and even announced the successor to that chip, the Feynman ship, it's going to go on sale in 2028. It's like the Olympics. I'm surprised they haven't named the 2032 chip by now. You see, for Nvidia, that's fantastic. Demand refreshes every two to three years, kind of like Apple with the iPhone. But for the rest of Big Tech,

Starting point is 00:06:45 they're splurging $100 billion each on something that they'll have to replace in two years because it's become obsolete. I mean, I guess, Jack, that may be why Nvidia continues to thrive, but Nvidia's customers continue to suffer. Because AI chips are not like railroad tracks or telephone wires. They're like flowers. Yeah, a billion dollar flowers. They're perishable and they need to be replaced.

Starting point is 00:07:10 For our second story, the latest startup to hit a $1 billion valuation, they're in blueberries. Giant blueberries. What industry are you in, Greg? I'm in the blueberry industry. No, no, the really big blueberry industry. The company's called Fruitist, and they're doing 400 million in sales. by turning the blueberry into the main character. But yeties, our story begins with Ray Dalio, the legendary financier who founded the largest hedge fund in the world. Bridgewater, they manage $100 billion of money. Yeah, but funny thing, that hedge fund, Bridgewater,

Starting point is 00:07:44 wasn't interested in Ray Dalio's latest startup pitch, were they, Jack? Because the startup was in blueberries. So, Ray Dalio, with his billions of dollars, invested his own money. He invested in a blueberry business. The company's called Fruitist. They just got $150 million from Ray Dalio and J.P. Morgan. This unicorn has an all-fruit diet. And we say that because fruitist carefully cross-bred blueberries and grew them in special microclimates to maximize size and crunchiness.

Starting point is 00:08:12 The result? A blueberry three times the size of an average blueberry. I'm sorry, Jack. You mean a blueberry with the girth of a clementine? Talk about a girthquake. Now, they're sold under the brand Jumbo, and they're now in 13,000 stores. $400 million of sales last year. Again, this isn't a big blueberry business. It's a big blueberry business. Yeah, it's a double big. But yet he's, here's what Jack and I find fascinating with this story. In the world of commoditized fruit, Fruitist has built a blueberry brand with loyalty. Because the real innovation isn't just the massive size that will get you to stop in your tracks in the grocery aisle. Although a golf ball size blueberry does make for a good Instagram

Starting point is 00:08:52 pickjack. The real innovation is these blueberries consistency. Because fruitists solved the berry challenge. Berry roulette. We've been there. You see, the farming industry is fragmented. What you find in the grocery store could come from a hundred different farms. I mean, so, Jack, like every berry you pick from the grocery store, it holds an unknown taste. You never really know what you're going to get. It's like roulette. There's variability. Like, will this one be sour? Will it be sweet? Will it be soft? Will it be crispy? When I go to Jack's house and he makes me oatmeal in the morning, you usually taste the blueberries for me and give me a warning. You know I'm not a sour blueberry guy, Jack. Well, Fruitist has venture capital money that regular farmers don't.

Starting point is 00:09:28 So Fruitist invested in high-tech, highly controlled growing environments. They've got a Mexican farm for summer blueberries, an Indian farm for winter blueberries, a Moroccan farm for the fall blueberries, which ensures consistently grown blueberries year-round. And those berries are grown at high altitude with big day-night temperature swings. And why is that important, Jack? It means the berries grow more slowly, which results in thicker skin and crunch your berries. Okay, but here is the real surprise. The real reason why Ray Dalio was interested in these.

Starting point is 00:09:58 big, big blueberries? The OZampic effect. Yeah, it's OZempec. You see, GLP1 drug users reduce consumption of all foods. That's what the drug is for, except for fruits and vegetables, where they eat more of them. And since OZembek users don't want surprises in their meals, they're splurging on a consistent guaranteed berry.

Starting point is 00:10:17 They're buying the recognizable brary brand. They're buying Fruitist jumbo berries. A big berry brand. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Fruitist? You can transform the supporting cast into the main character. Now, yes, Yetis, there is a novelty angle here. You know, scientifically engineering a giant berry that is an attention grabber. As I mentioned, it's a earthquake. But the real unlocked by Fruitist was repositioning the role of the blueberry as a product.

Starting point is 00:10:43 Historically, blueberries are a supporting item. They're your yogurt topping. They're your cake decoration. They're a smoothie ingredient. Okay, but by making the berry big, it took on a main character role, if you will. And that's what Fruitist is doing. Fruitus sells these huge berries not just in a berry box next to the competition, but also in one-serving berry snack packs. And that's the real value to the giant blueberry going from a topping to a meal replacement.

Starting point is 00:11:08 We know people who are on Ozempic, and instead of having like conventional three meals a day, they'll just pound blueberries at like two o'clock. Just sprinkle some protein power on it. And that is why Fruitus is worth a billion dollars. They've transformed a product from a supporting role to a main character one. Now a quick word from our sponsor.

Starting point is 00:11:27 For our third and final story, President Trump is meeting with President Xi of China today, Thursday, about a potential trade deal. But the place that the trade war's impact is being felt the most is the TV show Shark Tank. Yeti's 17th season of Shark Tank began last month. Mark Cuban is in. Lori Grenier is out. Jack, what's going on with Barbara? I don't know.

Starting point is 00:11:54 What's you going to do? I don't know, but all I do know is Mr. Wonderful is going to make you license your IP and then pay him a monthly dividend after every unit is. He charges a hard bargain. Now, the theme of Mark Cuban's final season is that all of the Shark Tank contestants are trade war losers. And to illustrate this, we can look at one product, the Fluffle from Shark Tank. The Fluffle. It's a human-sized dog bed. Like a giant circular mattress pen thingy that you can just flop into on the floor, in the living room, whatever. Yes, bears well as with the snuggy, right, Jack? Yeah, it does. Now, they do a million dollars in sales. Each bed retails for

Starting point is 00:12:28 $399, and it costs $140 to produce the Fluffle over in China. But that 65% profit margin that the Fluffel team pitched on Shark Tank, the finances ain't financing right now, are they, Jack? As U.S. tariffs on things made in China hit 145% earlier this year, Fluffel just threw out their numbers. They didn't work anymore. Today, tariffs on Chinese goods are down to 30%, but still, it makes the CEO of Fluffel not want to get out of his Fluffel in the morning. great idea would be to make an adult stroller. I would love to be strolled around Central Park by somebody. Fluffle make it happen. But besties, here's what Jack and I find fascinating about this story. What ails fluffle right now is a common situation among all Shark Tank-style companies.

Starting point is 00:13:14 American startups that have one physical invention. In other words, a Shark Tank style company. Exactly. Those products tend to be designed in America, but made in China. Low price, high volume, need to sell a lot of fluffles to make a fluffy profit. The Simply Fitboard, the Bomba sock, the Squatty Potty, these are Shark Tank's greatest hits all made in China. But unlike Tim Cook, that Squatty Potty CEO couldn't get a tariff exemption this year. Even one of the show's most successful products of all time, the Scrub Daddy is feeling big trade war pain right now. Thirteen years after doing a deal, Scrub Daddy's now doing $200 million in revenue. But the founder just said he is in crisis mode.

Starting point is 00:13:54 He told Business Insider that the U.S. just lacks the expertise to make his scrub daddy, as well as apparel and electronic products, too. And you know what? Mark Cuban agrees. He said that I'm a fan of making goods here in America, but some companies just can't do it. Now look, Nvidia has the scale to get an entire chip factory built for him in Arizona. Great point, Jack. Squatty potty doesn't. Unfortunately. So the result? The numbers are down for Shark Tank alums and current contestants. The sharks have the upper hand this season. expect more deals at smaller valuations. And for that reason, Jack, I'm out.

Starting point is 00:14:30 So what's the takeaway for our buddies over in America? Rare earth metals, AI chips, soybeans, TikTok, and Shark Tank. It's all on the line in today's Trump-China meeting. Yeties, this is President Trump's first meeting with China's President Xi in his second presidency. And you know what? It's the most important economic event of the year. No lunch will affect us all. more than the one happening right now in South Korea. Now, prediction markets, they think there's a 30% chance that a TikTok deal is announced at this meeting.

Starting point is 00:15:03 But also, the fate of American computer chip sales to China, that's at stake today. Rare earth metals that underlie all our technology also on the table in today's meeting. And of course, the $500 billion of made in China stuff that we Americans buy each and every year. Add it all up, rare earth metals, AI chips, soybeans, TikTok, and shark. tank. It's all in the line in today's Trump-China meeting. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Thursday, Halloween Eve? Invidia stock rose on news of $500 billion worth of Blackwell chip orders, but Blackwell's successor and its successor's successor are already in development. AI data centers, they're not like railroad tracks or telephone

Starting point is 00:15:49 wires. They're more like flower bouquets. They are perishable. For our second story, Fruitist carefully grows golf ball-sized blueberries and is now a $1 billion brand. Because fruit has turned a supporting role product into a main character product. And finally, President Xi meets with President Trump today in China. The administration's been signaling that a deal is coming on the trade war, but we will update you in tomorrow's pod. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today.

Starting point is 00:16:18 First, the Federal Reserve, our central bank, voted 10 to 2 to cut interest rates again yesterday. The benchmark interest rate that influences all other interest rates is now down to 3.75%. By the way, the two dissenting votes, one of them wanted an even bigger rate cut, and the other one wanted no cut at all. Unfortunately, the Fed signaled it won't cut interest rates again this year. And second, earning seasons in full swing for big tech. 15% of the S&P 500 is held by just three companies, and they reported yesterday. Google and Microsoft announced 34% and 40% jumps in their cost. cloud revenue. But meta's stock fell 9% after hours. Their results were good for Zuck, but it was

Starting point is 00:17:00 probably trading bots that sank the stock. And Chipotle stock plummeted 13% on word that younger diners are cutting back on their burritos. And finally, the average American now spends, its official, three full days a year sitting in traffic. By the way, traffic is defined by the report as delays compared to how long it would take without traffic. Yeah, and you spend a full three-day weekend equivalent sitting in it. You may even be in traffic right now. If you are great to see you there, you look fantastic. If you want to feel better, though, you spend three months of a year looking at your phone.

Starting point is 00:17:32 Yeah, yeah, but Jack, three of the days that you're looking at your phone, you're also stuck in traffic, not moving. We should point out. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one's sent in by Dr. Clifton Bird down in Tampa Bay. Push and play? Yeah, let's press play. Hey there, yeties and besties. This is Dr. Bird from Moffa Cancer Center in beautiful Tampa, Florida.

Starting point is 00:17:49 Today, I'm bringing you the best fact yet for breast cancer awareness month. Did you know that screening for breast cancer saves thousands of lives every year? Research shows that screening mammograms decrease breast cancer related deaths by up to 40%. Regular screening allows for early detection, better treatment options, and fantastic outcomes. God bless you all. Let's make this year's fight against breast cancer the best one yet. Thank you, Dr. Bird, and we left a link in the episode description to learn more. Sent to us by Dr. Byrd.

Starting point is 00:18:22 Yeah, it is. You look fantastic today. Even if you got a costume paralysis for this costume countdown right now. Yeah, we're down to one day. If you go to Spirit Halloween today, be civil. Don't knock anybody out of the way for that last wig on the shelf. Hey, you don't want to be talking to a manager, Spirit Halloween on Halloween Eve.

Starting point is 00:18:39 That is not a situation to be in. Unlike the temporary tattoos, that goes on your permanent record. So to everyone dressing up like Robocop Brian Chesky, good luck getting those handcuffs and Jack and I. We'll see on tomorrow's spot in costume. And before we go, a congratulations to Jonah Safe down in Santa Barbara, California, who's not just a birthday boy, but is getting married this weekend too. Congrats Jonah. And congratulations to the Marlington Girls Cross Country Team and Alliance Ohio, who are headed to Ohio State for the championships. And a happy birthday to Akash Sarong Walters, turning 32 years old down the street in San Francisco.

Starting point is 00:19:21 and Alis Guta Zumgobortz talk to June Mendoza, who's turning 40 over in Germany. And Preston Bryant have the best birthday yet over in Austin, Texas. And finally, a big shout-out to Emily Crabtree. We are so pumped to have you with us. Straight out of Livonia, Michigan. Her friend asked her H-Y-H-T-B-O-I, and she said no, so this is her first pod and it happens to be our best one. This is Jack. Nick and I both own stock of Apple, Chipotle, and ETFs of the SMP 500.

The Best One Yet - 🦈 “I’m out” — Shark Tank’s China trade deal. Nvidia’s $5T flowers. Fruitist’s $1B blueberry. +Candy Salad Trick-or-Treat

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