The Best One Yet - ⌚👶 “iOvulation” — Natural Cycles’ fertility watch. Disney’s stimulus plan. Elon’s X paywall.

Episode Date: September 20, 2023

Natural Cycles just got FDA approval for hands-free birth control — Simply by wearing an Apple Watch, this app tells you when you’re fertile.Disney is struuuuggling right now, so it’s splurging $60B on its most profitable business: theme parks — We call it “The Mickenomic Stimulus Plan.”And Elon just said he will require all users to pay a small monthly subscription to use X (aka Twitter) — That’d make it the first major social network behind a paywall.$AAPL $DIS $NFLX Subscribe to our newsletter: tboypod.com/newsletterWant merch, a shoutout, or got TheBestFactYet? Go to: www.tboypod.comFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on Youtube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

All right, Nick, you ready? Yes. Take one. Sorry, no. What is it? Is it typically like you need to say the name of the show? This is the best one yet. Take one.

No, sorry. This is the best one yet. Seat 1, take 26. And action. Rolling. This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Wednesday.

Sovich. Lensday. September 20th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This. This is a T-boy Jack. Stocks dipped. a tad yesterday, but more importantly,

talk to me, Jack. We're in the Hollywood Hills right now. You are glowing over there. Have you had a little work done since we've been here? Are your ribs okay? Because I bear hugged you when I saw it in the airport. Nip-tucked this little microphone, Jack. First story, what are we got for the pod?

Live from lovely Los Angeles. For our first story, Disney just announced a $60 billion theme park plan that we're calling Mekonomic stimulus. Micconomic Stimulus, because the most Instagramed place on Earth, it's Disney. For our second story, we're looking at natural cycles. This is a birth control app that just got a crucial FDA approval. Yeties, your Apple Watch now knows when you're fertile. And our third and final story, if you're tweeting right now,

you may have to start paying for it soon. Because Elon Musk wants to make X the first major social network fully paywalled. Allegedly. But yeties, before we hit that fantastic mix of stories. landing, Jack. Perfect. Love the mix today. Important news bulletin. Yes. We have found her. We have found the biggest party pooper of all time. Now, by we, I mean CNBC. CNBC found financially the biggest party pooper on earth. They found quantifiably the biggest party pooper of parties in the world. Her name is Naba Benarji. And she's the person at Airbnb in charge of enforcing their party ban.

This product manager, holds the world record. Talk to me, Jack. What kind of numbers? She has blocked 320,000 parties. Jack, can you sprinkle on a little context for us? During the pandemic, we covered it on this pod. Airbnb decided to crack down on parties. Because that Kager and Key West was a super spreader event. But last year, Airbnb decided to make that party ban permanent. COVID or no COVID, neighbors don't like a 20-person bachelorette as a banger next door. No, Airbnb wasn't just a party pooper. No. They were a party pooper with a purpose. And this one human, Naba, led that initiative.

Now, Nick, she didn't ban 320,000 parties by herself. That's a good point. What did she do, Jack? The artificial intelligence helped her. Because she designed an anti-party AI that took care of everything. This AI recognizes patterns on Airbnb descriptions and then hunts down repeat party houses. Yeties, this AI could sniff out a beer pong table. And once it tracks them down, it kicks those properties off the platform. Besties, this AI could put.

probably tell if you turned up the stereo two clicks all the way up. Add it all up and the number of parties on Airbnb is down 55% in the past two years. And 320,000 guests have been blocked from the partay. Airbnb is partiless at this point. That's why Nava may be the world's biggest party, pooper of all. If your party got pooped. Yes, Jack. It's probably because Naba nab it. Jack, let's hit our three stories. That already was a story. That was like amazing. before this song. Two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know,

because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. Start the show. For our first story, Disney is struggling right now. So Disney is launching what Jack and I are calling Disney stimulus. The economic stimulus package. The economic stimulus package. It's a crazy $60 billion plan to double down on Disney's profit puppy theme parks.

But first, Yetis, breaking news from Orlando. You may have heard that a live wild black bear snuck into the magic kingdom. Like, we're not kidding. There was a bear roaming around Disney World like scaring patrons. It's Ballou from the Jungle Buck. But Yetis, this isn't a story about the real

bear in Disney World. Which they should. safely returned to its natural habitat. Our story is about Disney's stock, which is literally a bear. That's right, because Disney stock is down by 27% since February. Because Disney's cable TV networks are dying, and their box office has been flopping. And the thing to replace cable TV in movie theaters? Streaming? Disney Plus?

That's still not profitable either. That weakness, Yeties, is why Disney's stock has fallen usually. Disney is now worth less than Netflix's. Which are both stocks that you own, I believe. Correct. At least Netflix is up. Jack's got a media bundle of stocks in his portfolio. But the next announcement that Disney made yesterday was truly shocking.

Jack and I got on the flights to go to Los Angeles and we saw this headline. We're like, oh, we're covering this story. I downloaded the article as a PDF in case my flight didn't have Wi-Fi. Get this Yeties. Disney just announced that it will double spending on theme parks and cruises to $60 billion. That's like half of Disney's entire corporate value. They're going to spend it over the next 10 years on cruise ships and theme parks. It's like Epcot's Congress passed a economic stimulus package.

$60 billion of spending by Disney over the next 10 years. Call Tom Wamsgan. We got a project for you to run, Tom. $60 billion. That is enough money to build 30 Yankee Stadium. $60 billion is 15 lifts. Now we know what you're thinking, listeners in Deutschland. L. $60 billion is the GDP of Costa Rica. Is Disney building Disney Welt in Deutschland?

No, they're not. And we know what you're also thinking. Is Disney building Omano da Disney in Brazil? No, they're not doing that either. Instead of building brand new theme parks and new countries, Disney is going to add even more themes to their existing resorts. Because get this. How much land does Disney have that they're not even using?

Disney has a thousand acres of undeveloped land on their existing six. resorts right now. Disney just has land that they haven't done anything with. But now they're going to do something. Disney teased yesterday that they might build a Zootopia World or a Coco Land or Wakanda forever. Disney is basically building the 51st state and they're going to make Goofy the governor. And Disney is also going to build a new theme park on water. Yes, Jack. And what are those? Crewships. Yeah, cruise ships. They're the aircraft carriers of the entertainment industry. And Disney's going to build a bunch more of them for their fleet. Now Yeties, we know. what you're thinking here. Why are they spending so much money on theme parks like the old school

physical stuff? Here's the numbers Disney showed Wall Street to back this plan up. Get this. Turns out 100 million people go to Disney parks and cruises every single year. But Disney's research shows the actual market size for Disney theme parks is 700 million people. 700 million people they expect to go to their team parks. So Disney thinks they can 7x the number of visitors to their theme parks and cruises if they execute this plan. right. That is some economic stimulus. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Disney World? When in doubt, double down on your strength. Yeties, you know what the most Instagramed place on earth is? The Brooklyn Bridge?

It's close. You're close. It's not the Eiffel Tower. And sadly, it's not the Brooklyn Bridge, Jack. It's actually the Magic Kingdom. Yeah. For the past 10 years, Disney's built amusement parks for each piece of major IP that they own at their parks. In Orlando, Florida, you can go to to an Avengers theme park, a Star Wars theme park, Avatar has its own world. Apparently cars? Yeah, cars has its own... Here in L.A., in Anaheimhires. It has its own theme park. And guess what? Frozen? Disney is building an Arundel Castle, real-life-sized in Tokyo. Well, it feels like it should be in Canada, but let's roll with it, check. Agreed. And Yeties, those investments have paid off. Because those investments in theme parks have 5x their

theme park profits over just the past 10 years. So Disney's deciding, let's do it again. Yeah, they're going to feed their profit puppy some Disney brandy. puppy child. With what we're calling economic stimulus. Because Disney's empire is in doubt, so Disney is doubling down on its strength. For our second story, the FDA

just approved birth control on the Apple Watch. That's right. Not condoms. Not a pill. No. Just look at your wrist. Here's something no one really tells you, but like for years you try to not have a baby, and then when you try to have a baby, it can actually be like really hard to have a baby.

Right. So let's introduce some biological context of this story. Can you sprinkle it on for us, Jack? A woman is actually only fertile for six days of each cycle. That's it. That's it. It's only six days out of the whole month when you can actually get pregnant. So, if you could accurately know what six days it's going to be, then that would be good to know if you're trying to conceive. And that would also be good to know if you're not trying to conceive. It's kind of just good to know for everybody. What are the six days that fertility is happening? That date is really valuable. In fact, it seems like it's worth about 150 million dollars based on the startup's valuation. Yeah, because this story is about natural cycles,

a Swedish fertility startup that helps you find those six days. And they hit a 150 million dollar valuation because they seem to have found those days. Natural cycles says that you can do birth control effectively with no hormones and no condoms either. And here's how they do it. This is where it gets interesting. By measuring the temperature of your body, they can determine whether you're fertile. Because the body temperature rises as you're ovulating, so that's when you're fertile. But here's the interesting problem that they've faced. To measure your body temperature and figure out if you're ovulating, you have to take your temperature at the same time, every day the same way. Okay, so the app works, the software works, but that's kind of an interesting friction that's in it. Because you've got to

wake up in the morning, grab the thermometer from your bedside table and put it in. That's a risk that you do it inconsistently or mess up. It introduces human error risk. Which brings us to this big news from yesterday. The FDA just approved Natural Cycles fertility software for the Apple Watch. That's a big deal. It is. It means you don't have to use a thermometer in your bedside table. You can just leave your Apple Watch on it night.

It means we may have the first ever hands-free birth control. Because the Apple Watch can measure your body's temperature very accurately and catch the tiny changes that happen while you're sleeping. And then the Natural Cycles app is going to analyze that data and give you a simple yes or no to tell you if you're fertile. That's right. With the Apple Watch and the Natural Cycles app, it'll be green if you're fertile. It'll be red if you're not fertile.

And apparently this is 98% clinically effective with the perfect use. Or 93% effective if used the way that people typically use it. But Jack and I saw this story and we were like, we've just haven't seen a technology developed like this. We just didn't expect this. Yeah, for the first time, it's software, not hardware or a physical thing that manages your family planning. This is wearable birth control with wearable technology. It lets you prevent or plan a pregnancy just by looking at your wrist every morning. Now, we should point out that the aura ring, another startup wearable, is also FDA approved for use with natural cycles.

But there's way more Apple watches on people's wrists than aura rings on people's fingers. They sold 50 million Apple watches just last year. So this FDA approval has a bigger potential impact. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies over in tech? Platforms are all about their potential. Yet he's a funny thing, a few years ago, when, When the Apple Watch first came out, its most powerful feature was text notification. Oh, great, I got a text message.

My phone already told me now. People weren't that excited about it, to be honest. And then you got the button on your Apple Watch that lets you skip songs. Which was kind of cool for your father-in-law. But now, the ability to plan your family as accurately as with a birth control pill? Let that sink in. Sit down, stand up, and just sit down. Without having to take a pill or take your temperature, or introduce hormones, or use protection?

Yeti's natural cycles brought the innovation with their software. But Apple brought the scale with its hardware. Like the iPhone, the Apple Watch is a platform. And platforms are all about potential. For our third and final story, Twitter, I mean X, could become the first social media platform to require a paid subscription. Elon thinks a paywall will kill two Twitter birds with one stone. But Yeties,

Jack and I were thinking about it. And honestly, Elon has basically become a country, right? Elon controls the world's preeminent electric car company. Yes. He controls the only rocket company putting people in space. Yes. And he controls the one global free-free-pleach platform. I can't speak.

It was a free speech, pleach, pleash platform. Add it all up yet. He's in that, that's an economy of businesses. And that's why Elon just had a chat with Turkey's President Erdogan at the United Nations on Monday. And that's why the same. same day, Elon had another chat with Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, about hate speech on X. Elon's basically an ambassador of his own country. But then Elon dropped this nugget that

the business world did not expect. While he was talking to Netanyahu, he said that X will soon put up a paywall. What does that mean exactly, Jack? It means to use Twitter, you'd have to pay. To scroll Twitter, you'd have to pay. To tweet on Twitter, you'd have to pay. To like or retweet, you'd have to You want to do anything involving the letter X or a tweeting bird, you are paying money. Elon said in the live chat with Netanyahu that all users will have to pay a small monthly subscription in order to view tweets or to tweet. We should offer a quick Elon disclosure, Jack. Just because Elon said he's going to do that, doesn't mean he'll actually do that.

Yeah, those robotaxy Tesla is where we're still waiting. You need a couple big scoops of salt to sprinkle on that one. But yeties, here's what Jack and I found fascinating about this story. Elon cited one reason why everyone may have to pay for Twitter for the first time ever. The reason Twitter might get a paywall is bots. Bots. Elon said a cheap subscription, maybe like a dollar a month. That is the only thing he can think of that will combat the vast armies of Twitter bots. And if you think about it, if each X account required a linked payment card,

then it would be costlier to make fake accounts on Twitter. Yeah, like user at DKV 89KR78 is probably not throwing down a, Mastercard to keep on using X. No, because that account is a bot, probably one of a thousand that was made. And that user with no picture, no bio, and zero followers, probably not registering their MX to keep on using Twitter. Because they're a bot, too. So that's the key thing here, Yetis.

From Elon's point of view, a small subscription actually kills two Twitter birds with one stone. A full-on Twitter paywall. Could add revenue and eliminate bots at the same time. Both revenue and kill the bots. That's two wins. But there's one huge potential downside here. Jack, you want to whip it up for us?

He's trying to get bots to not pay, but what if real humans don't pay either? Yeah, so what Jack and I are saying here, Yetis, is that this could make money for Twitter as revenue. But he could also lose half the user base because they simply don't want to pay. You got rid of a lot of fake bots, but you also got rid of a lot of real humans too. A paywall is a blunt way to kill bots. There must be another way. There must be another way. And that way is our takeaway.

So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at X? The other way to get rid of bots is the LinkedIn way. Yeties, you know who doesn't have as much of a bot problem right now? It's actually LinkedIn. One year ago, LinkedIn started letting people verify their accounts for free. They would cross-reference your name and picture with your government idea. In April, LinkedIn let you verify where you work and get a badge to show that verification too. Those two measures improve authenticity on the LinkedIn.

platform and they seem to be working. Now, funny thing, Eddies, LinkedIn doesn't charge for those verifications. In fact, it actually costs LinkedIn money to offer the verifications for free. And that shows the two different business strategies to solve the same bot problem. On the one hand, Elon's blunt subscription would smash the bots. Or LinkedIn's precise verification to prevent them. Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us and some citrus for Civeche Wednesday? Theme parks and cruises are Disney's most profitable business.

so it's investing another $60 billion to make them even stronger. It's economic stimulus. When in doubt, double down on your strengths. For our second story, the Natural Cycles app and Apple Watch have FDA approval to tell you when you're fertile. Just by looking at your wrist, because platforms are about potential. And our third and final story. To kill bots, Twitter may become the first social media platform to make everyone pay. But there is another way to kill bots, and that way is our take-refer.

way, the LinkedIn way, down by the bay. No way. What do you say? I got all day. No, you hang up. But this pod's not over yet, yeties. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Instacart IPOed yesterday like we told you, and the stock jumped 12% on the first day

of training. You can now literally buy the Instacart stock like it was chicken stock. And second, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky flew to New York City all the way to New York to address the UN in person yesterday. And he called Putin's actions in Ukraine a genocide. And finally, singer Katie Perry just sold her entire music catalog for $225 million. The deal closed last Friday night. She joins the long list of musicians selling their music for over $100 million to big Wall Street buyers.

Literally a teenage dream. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one whipped up by Jack and me in the back of an Uber. on the way to our studio in Los Angeles. Apparently, holidays are right around the corner. Yes, Jack. Amazon just announced they're adding 250,000 temporary workers to handle the extra packages over the holidays.

Jack, can you sprinkle on more context to the number 250,000 workers? If Amazon's temporary workforce were a company, temporary. It would be number 23 on the list of companies with the most employees. Why don't you throw a little more context on us? Amazon's temporary workforce, these holidays, is bigger than Apple's full-time workforce and meta's full-time workforce combined. Yeties, you look fantastic in the middle of the week. Jack, you're looking fantastic in person.

Let's go. Are we got to go to? Dodgers game. We've got a game to go to. I've been to Fenway Park. Yes. I've been to Wrigley Field. Every one of them.

The third oldest Major League Baseball Park is Dodgers Stadium. Okay, we got to go. But I know your rule about going to baseball games. Oh, yeah. I always get like fried chicken. No, no, no, no, that's not you wrong. You only get fried food at baseball games. It's the only time you do it.

I get French fries. I get chicken fingers. I get a lot of ketchup packages. Yeti, sorry, we got to go. It's cheat night for Jack and me. Let's hit the friar, baby. Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. We will supersize it.

Before we go, a happy birthday to Yeti Vasco Ferreira in Porto, Portugal. He just had his birthday and his daughter's birth just one day apart. Mid-September. birthday season. And happy birthday to Alexandra Green, down in New York City. And Chase Carlson just gave us the coordinates of their birthday. It's in Northwest New Jersey. Happy

birthday to Addisang, who's turned him 41 in Orange County. And Carmen McKay, happy birthday down in Birmingham, Alabama. Congratulations to Ava Brickman from New York City, who just moved from investment banking to private equity. Not for the money. She did it for the fun. And the money.

And congratulations. Congratulations and an early shout out to Brett Benedetitini, who's about to run his very first marathon over in Detroit. And congratulations to Brian Gorman, who just got his first million dollar sale in Astoria Queens. That's a win to celebrate. And drinks are on Brian. Yes, they are. This is Jack. I own stock of Amazon, Disney, and Netflix, and Nick and I both own stock of Apple and Spotify. This is Jack, and I'm overexposed. And scene.

And... Scene.