The Best One Yet - 🕵️ “Keep your robe on” — Airbnb’s security camera ban. LEGO’s Harry Potter overload. $10k of 1st-time homebuyers.

Episode Date: March 13, 2024

Airbnb’s banned indoor security cameras from airbnbs worldwide (good for guests, bad for creeps) — But it reveals the Platform Paradox: It’s hard to make both guests and hosts happy.LEGO only announces earnings once per year — Turns out 2023 was the worst year for toys in 15 years, so LEGO is leaning on Harry Potter obscurity.And the White House just revealed a plan to ignite the housing market that we call “The Empty Nester Nudge” — If you’re buying or selling a starter home, you could get $10,000.🗽TBOY Live NYC 🍎— Tickets on sale Thursdays here: https://citywinery.com/new-york-city/events/tboy-pod-cs3z0i$MAT $HAS $ABNBSubscribe to our newsletter: tboypod.com/newsletterWant merch, a shoutout, or got TheBestFactYet? Go to: www.tboypod.comFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on Youtube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Wednesday, San Viche Wednesday, March 13th. And today's pod is the best one yet. It's a T-Boy straight out of Brooklyn. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. But Jack, I'm going to ask you, what was your favorite experience from cruising to the top of the Empire State Building earlier today?

Yesterday we announced on Instagram Live that our New York show is happening, April 24th. Oh, our tickets dropped tomorrow. We can't wait yet. But we announced it from the 100th and second floor of the Empire State Building. Okay, I think your ears popped because my ears popped on floor 80. It was an incredible experience. It's Disney-like, honestly. Everyone there is a consummate profession.

You're hearing 30 different languages spoken at the same time. Someone heard Jack say schvitz and then started speaking to Roman Yiddish. In German. In German. It was amazing. Actually, my highlight was discovering when we went to the gift shop, you had to stop because you wanted to buy a magnet. I bought a refrigerator magnet of the Empire State Building.

We fully recommend this if you're visiting New York. It was awesome. I lived in New York my whole life, born and grew up there. I'd only been once at two in the morning. This time, this was special. We were at the top of the city. King Kong vibes. Jack, first story for today's show.

What do we got, man? For our first story, Airbnb just banned indoor security cameras. It's Airbnb's anti-spiral. Great if you're a guest, bad if you're creepy. For our second story, the White House just announced a plan to help first-time homebuyers with a $10,000 tax credit. Jack and I call it the empty Nestor Nudge. For our third. And final story.

Legos. Legos is a private company. They only announced their numbers once a year, so we jumped in T-Boy style. And Lego just had its worst year in years. But yet, ease, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Fantastic mix of stories from here in Williamsburg. But Jack, can we travel a little bit further west? Take me back to Detroit, summer 2016, in between your years of grad school.

I lived in Detroit. It was a great summer. But there was one day that I was so hungry. I remember. You, like, hadn't eaten all day? You hadn't drank in anything all day? Nick was there supporting me because I was celebrating a day of Ramadan with my buddy Abbas. Yet he's the holy Islamic month of Ramadan. It began this week.

Ramadan is incredible. It's about giving and giving something up at the same time. Now, one core practice of Ramadan, one of the tenets of the Islamic faith is that from sunrise to sunset, you cannot eat and you cannot drink. But Ramadan's a whole month of fasting during the day. No liquids, no solids until sunset. To bring you closer to your faith, you can't even snag a sip of water from the tap. Nick, my buddy is Muslim. He was okay fasting because he's been doing it for years. How are you doing over there, by the way?

I was struggling before brunch time. Jack's still in recovery mode, I'm pretty sure. It was such an incredible physical challenge. It was a mental challenge, too. Because besties, full disclosure, this is Nick, that's Jack. And we can't finish a podcast without drinking like three lacroys. I'm snacking an almond in between each story of this pod right now. And that's after he had an almond joy.

And that's why, Nick, the physical. and mental feat of each day of Ramadan is a challenge that we respect so much. And Jack only did it for one day. His buddy did it for 30. But the best part of Ramadan I did get to experience, even though I only did it for that one day. Talk to me, Jack. Breaking the fast is the best part because each day of Ramadan ends with a joyous family feast. It's like 30 Thanksgiving dinners in a row during Ramadan. But you actually earned those Thanksgiving dinners. You'll probably never forget that Iftar with your buddy, Jack. That daily Iftar at the end of each day, of Ramadan is a celebration. But besties, this year's Ramadan isn't like other years Ramadan's. Because worldwide, 1.8 billion Muslims are fasting out of choice for Ramadan. But in Gaza, over a million Muslims aren't fasting. They're at risk of starvation. So it's typically a celebration about joy, this Ramadan, it's also sad.

So Ramadan Mubarak. Ramadan Kareem. Nick and I want you to know that we read the messages that you send us and we are thinking about you this holy month. So have a good fast. And Jack, let's hit our three stores. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm.

They had an idea that caused a cultural storm. It's the best one. Yeah, that's it. 50%. That's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show.

Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, Airbnb, just announced a band. on indoor security cameras. It's an anti-spying ban. Great news if you like privacy. Bad news if you like creepiness. But Jack and I also think this move highlights

a huge fundamental tension of Airbnb and every platform in tech. But Nick, let's open with a hero statistic. According to Lending Tree, 51% of American homes have a security camera installed. And for younger generations like us, it's even higher, isn't it, man? 72% of us millennials

have a security camera. By the way, guilty. Odds are, yetis, you are listening right now while you're checking to see if, like, the mailman, is that the mailman or is that a raccoon or a coyote? I don't know. Animal, animal in the back. Check what it is. Maybe it's something exciting. Thanks to smartphone connected cameras, we are now in a surveillance society, and we are used to it. But Airbnb just banned it. The eddies, here's the news, hosts are now forbidden from having indoor security cameras over at Airbnb. It is an anti-spy ban.

In Airbnb's announcement, they said we must prioritize. the privacy of our community. No more nanny cams, Jack. Now, funny thing Nick and I noticed about this indoor camera ban, previously, Airbnb had allowed indoor security cameras under three conditions. As long as it was disclosed in the listing, it was not in a bedroom or bathroom, and that camera was clearly thus visible, lawyer speak. But that was a complicated rule.

They needed a simpler, no indoor camera rule. You need a rule that you can print on a, like, on a hand tattoo, Jack. Because we're talking about potential privacy invasion. It needs to be a simple, clear rule. You can't have six footnotes and have like a judge intervene in order for anyone to understand this. So no indoor cameras from here on out, full stop. Hosts will now have until April 30th to comply with Airbnb's new rule or face a potential ban from Airbnb. Now, yet he's in tech, everyone talks about use cases.

But in the real world, it's important to look at edge cases too. You got to look at the edge cases. So, Jack, what do you say? We whip out the whiteboard and use our imagination. nation's here to walk through some lovely edge cases. Okay, so no indoor cameras. It's all about privacy. What if the home has an outdoor shower?

Okay. Or an outdoor sauna. Uh-huh. Or another place where you might get naked. Any kind of nude opportunities. Yetis, by the way, full warning. If Jack's using your Airbnb, he might be disroving, apparently, as soon as he walks in the door.

Well, Airbnb's got my back because they say you cannot have an outdoor camera pointed at an outdoor shower or an outdoor sauna. But Jack, what about a pool? No word on pools. So skinny dippers, beware. let's escalate the edge cases here. Jack, what about a doorbell cam? Are you going to take the doorbell cam off if you're the Airbnb host? Airbnb says doorbell cameras are okay. Outdoor cameras are okay. This lets the host monitor who comes in and who comes out, and you can make sure no one's having

a rager at your Airbnb. Now, Jack, I'm also going to take things into a freaky area here. Can we talk about mirrors? It's a powerful old technology. I'm glad you asked, Dick, what if the owner sets up an outdoor camera, which is allowed, but puts a mirror in front of? of it so that the camera points back into the bedroom. Jack's just gets into the home, tries to disrobe, but he's trying to live his life and there's a mirror outdoors. What's going on? Creeps go to great lengths to be creepy. Well, Airbnb is not ruled on the mirror situation yet from like Law and Order Season 2.

But their chief creepy officers looking into that edge case. You gotta look at the edge cases if you work in Tech Yetty. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies over at Airbnb who may or may not be naked right now? This camera dilemma highlights Airbnb's real challenge. platform paradox. Back up a step for the stack. Or let's back up a step for a second. Yeti's Airbnb is the hotel company that doesn't own a single hotel.

They're just a middleman who takes a cut from the host and a cut from the guest. But Airbnb's not exactly an impartial middleman between the guests and the host. Are they, Jack? Airbnb has a favorite side because when Airbnb IPOed, they made that favorite side clear. Yet he's Airbnb's IPO paperwork mentioned the word guest seven. hundred times. But they mentioned the word host 1,000,100 times. Clearly, Airbnb has a preference for the hosts. But lately, there's been a backlash from the guests about Airbnb's cleaning fees and checkout fees and chores. So with this latest nanny cam ban, Airbnb is giving the guests some attention.

They're giving the guests some love by protecting their privacy. Even though some hosts may not like it. Yeties, when Airbnb makes a policy decision, it's usually good for one side, but not the other. There's very few win-wins. And that is the paradox that all platforms face. What's good for one side probably upsets the other side. For our second story, the president just proposed a $10,000 tax break that we're calling the empty nester nudge. $10,000 for empty nesters to sell and $10,000 for first-time homebuyers to buy.

And we are going to jump into a T-boy style. Yeties this week, President Biden released his annual budget budget. proposal. How much money, Jack? Seven trillion dollars of annual spending. Well, the U.S. federal government is the biggest player in our economy, so that is a pretty, pretty big deal. And here's the president's plan. Increased taxes on corporations and billionaires to try to reduce the deficit. No surprise there. Anything else that we found interesting, Jack? Yes. His policy about homes. Yeah. There was a surprise in this budget about homes that we got curious about. The White House wants to give sellers $10,000 and buyers $10,000 to loosen up this frozen housing market.

We repeat, both sides of a real estate transaction could be getting $10,000 in order to make that transaction actually happen. Now, we should point out, this housing plan won't pass in our divided government, but it could pass if the president's party wins the election. Now, ladies, whenever Jack and I hear an idea that's kind of complicated, the first thing we think of is, how can we understand this and then brand this? so that you can actually understand it too. That's why we call this plan, the empty nester nudge.

The empty nester nudge, because this plan only applies to starter homes. And, Jack, who owns starter homes? Boomers own all the starter homes in America. But Jack, who actually needs a starter homes? Gen Z and millennials. Yeah, here's the fact, and this is a fact, the most affordable homes in our country are owned by older people. Even though their kids have moved out, these older people don't want to sell their homes. And why is that exactly?

Because that 30-year mortgage rate they have is so good. So low. They just can't leave their house. And that is what we call it gold in handcuffs. Because it's like such a good financial situation. It stops you from going anywhere, Jack. I'm cuffed in. Yet he's the average American homeowner has a mortgage on that home with a 3.8% interest rate.

That is so good. That is so low. You don't want to leave that mortgage. You don't want to replace that mortgage with today's 7% interest rate and double your interest payments each month. So older people don't want to leave that home. They stay in those. starter homes. They're waiting for interest rates to come down. And that is why the president's plan is to nudge that empty nester out of their nest to fly away with a $10,000 tax credit. And then on the

other side, they want to help Millie move into that nest with their own $10,000 tax credit. Everyone wins, everyone's flying, and nests are being exchanged like birds. That sounds wonderful. Now, we should note this only applies to starter homes, which are defined by this plan as homes below the median selling price. And the current median selling price in America is $415,000. And it's probably got a security camera. What a nest. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies in the housing market? There isn't just one U.S. economy. Everyone is living in their own U.S. economy. All right. If you're on a college campus right now, pop into the economics department, grab an economist and say, hey, can we talk about the economy? And here's what they'll tell you.

The U.S. economy right now, it is strong. High GDP? low unemployment, decreasing inflation. But that high-level data obscures that the economy is very different at the person-to-person level. Right. When you go on that detail, for some the economy is great. For some, it's okay. And for others, it's bad. Just look at housing. If you're a homeowner right now and you're not trying to move out of your home, the economy is great for you. In the last few years, your home equity has grown so much. If you're a homeowner trying to get into a bigger house, the economy is okay.

Because like your home is gained value, but you're stuck in that current home because you don't want to leave your interest rate. And if you're a renter, the economy is just rough. Rent is at an all-time high across the country, eating up an average of 30% of the renter's income. Well, he's added all up. And that's why, whether you think the economy is good or bad, it depends on your personal circumstances. So when thinking about how the economy is doing, we speak like there's only one economy, but there isn't just one economy. Because within the U.S. economy, there are actually millions of different. economies. And the housing market illustrates it all. Now a quick word from our sponsor.

For our third and final story, Lego just gave us their one and only financial update of the entire year and how did it look, Jack? Well, the toy industry overall had its worst year in 15 years, but Lego has a plan. Yeties, four years ago, you'd be listening to this podcast while you were doing a puzzle rolling some hot wheels and building 14 sets of Lego at the same. time. Four years ago, the pandemic stuck at home era was peak playtime for us all. He would finish recording the pot and Jack would like be playing with cabbage patch kids over there. The only game you couldn't play four years ago is Twister. Oh, yeah, Twister. You know, because the red circle and the green circle, that is a super spreader event. My face does not belong in

any stranger's armpits. Yet he's the world bought so many toys in 2020, 2021, 2021, 2022. That by The 2023, that bin of toys was overflowing at home. You weren't buying it anymore. Last year, the problem for the toy industry, we all had enough toys. That's why last year, toy sales toppled like a jenga set. Last year, according to Lego CEO, was the worst year for the toy industry worldwide in 15 years. Yeah, these Lego sales rose just 2% last year. That's it.

Their profits actually fell. But Lego was better than Hasbro's Nick. Hasbro, the publicly traded American toy company, their sales fell by 15%. percent last year. My little pony would like a ride. Now, Legos did have some highlights. They opened up 147 Lego stores. They now have a thousand physical stalls worldwide. Jack, can you sprinkle on more context for us over there? That's a lot of stores. It's twice as many Lego stores as there are Shake Shack restaurants. But still, Lego CEO called last year a quote-unquote difficult year in both English and Danish. This Danish CEO shared zero smiles on the earnings call.

We've actually never seen him smile, Jack. The Danes Ozambic and Legos Make great toys Not as good playmates So Yetis We know what you're wondering here What is Lego's planned

For a turnaround Are they going to do what everyone else does And go into the nostalgia Something from the past To like get you back? No, they're going to throw more new stuff at you Than you've ever been ready for We repeat, Lego's doing the opposite of nostalgia

They're leaning on novelty Last year Lego had 780 different Lego sets for sale Biggest toy offering ever at the Lego company. And of those 780 Lego sets, only half were classics. The other half were brand spanking new Lego sets. That means that Lego launched a new, brand new, never-before-done Lego set every single day last year. They launched 365 new Lego sets last year. And to convince you to buy another Lego set, they reached into the depths of fandom.

They whipped up so many obscure IP Lego sets. They were scraping the bottom of, like, the movie idea barrel. All right, perfect example of this is Harry Potter. Of course Lego already sells Harry Potter. It's been a hit for 30 years. Lego's been doing Harry Potter castles, wizards, magical creatures for like a decade. But last year, Legos launched the Harry Potter Castle Boat House Lego set. I didn't even know that real estate existed at Hogwarts.

Or how about the mailbox to number four Privet Drive? That's now a Lego set you can buy. Just the mailbox. So you can put head wig on it. That is a sign of a weak toy market because Lego is reaching deep into potter lore to pull you back in with fresh material. The way Nick and I think of it, it's like a couple trying to spice up a stale marriage. How do I look in this wizard road? I've never seen that robe before.

Now you're interested? That's very spicy. So, Jack, can you put more robes on, please, Jack? The takeaway for our buddies over at Lego. Lego is getting stuck on the novelty threat. Yeti's the CEO of Lego calls their strategy, no joke, staying cool with the kids. That's what the Danish CEO said. But Jack and I call this strategy the novelty treadmill.

Because if you train the customer to expect new things, it gets harder and harder to continue delivering new things. Where we see it, it's like running on a treadmill. And then you have to keep running faster and faster and faster to keep up with speed. Legos can't do this forever. They can only squeeze so many obscure Harry Potter sets out of that genre. Jack, are you going to buy a Lego set of like, Hagrid's vegetable garden.

Would you do that? Or Jack, Jack, would you buy a Lego set of like Voldemart's apartment condo in Williamsburg, Brooklyn? Would you do that? Hermione's closet organizer? Is anyone buying these?

Well, that's all they got left. Yet he's maybe Lego can pull it off, but the novelty treadmill is like a slippery slope. If you keep on sprinting on the novelty treadmill, your business is going to pull a hammy. Jack, could you keep those clothes on and whip up the takeaways for us for Zaviche Wednesday? You knew it was coming.

To protect guest press, privacy, Airbnb just banned indoor cameras from Airbnb's worldwide. This illustrates the platform paradox. What's good for one side of a platform probably upsets the other. For our second story, the White House wants to give buyers and sellers of starter homes $10,000 each in tax credits. We call it the empty nester nudge because there isn't just one economy, we each face our own economy. And our third and final story, because all of our toy bins are full already. I stepped on one. Legos managed just 2% growth last year.

The Legos did it with Harry Potter novelty. Legos is running on the novelty treadmill. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, interesting thing, Jack and I noticed. To make extra money, car companies are now going to sell data on individual drivers to insurance companies. They're already doing it. Because if you're a crazy driver, Guyco wants to know, and GM has connected car data to tell Guyco.

And second, we just got the celebrity of economic reports. The inflation report for February. Prices were up 3.2% overall compared to the year before. That's way down from 9% peak inflation in the summer of 2022, but it's still stubbornly above the Fed's 2% inflation target. And finally, liquid death or liquid death. The goth heavy metal water startup just raised $67 million at a $1.4 billion valuation. Who knew selling cans of H2L could be a $1.4 billion business?

What's our favorite non-financial stat about liquid death? Apparently 240 people have liquid death tatted themselves. Liquid death tattoos. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Danny Kupfer from right down the street in Brooklyn. Brooklyn, the hometown of Mel Brooks. Love how we just chose him. Let's do it.

Let's run with a Jay. A lot of people are from Brooklyn, actually. On Monday, Jack and I did a story on bananas. It was bananas. Bananas. They're the only fruit defying inflation. Prices for bananas haven't changed in debt. In fact, for 25 years, Trader Joe's grocery store has sold bananas for just 19 cents each.

So Danny was wondering, why 19 cents? It's a strange price. Because in 1999, an old lady befriended the local Trader Joe's manager in Sun City, Arizona. That old lady said she could only afford one banana a day if it was 19 cents each. So that local store decided to keep banana prices at 19 cents of that Trader Joe so she could always afford it. It was just a local decision by one local manager at one. local trader Joe. But then apparently like Trader Joe himself said, let's do this nationwide. And that is why every Trader Joe sells bananas for just 19 cents. So if you pick them up every day on the way to work like Nick you used to, you can thank one old woman and one manager out in Arizona.

Yeties, you are looking fantastic today. Jack, you are looking fantastic for our live show in New York City. Tickets go on sale tomorrow, man. It's going to sale tomorrow. April 24th is today. Set your calendar. The whole Mel Brooks is going to be there. We've got a link in this episode description so you can get your tickets or you can go to T-Boy pod on Instagram. Nick and I hope to see you there. It's going to be the best show yet. In the meantime, Jack and I are grabbing drinks and BK. Did I go put my robe back on? And before we go, a happy 27th birthday to Yeti Ryan Kim in Seoul, South Korea, who also just got a new job in Hong Kong. Congratulations, Ryan. Happy birthday to Thu and Joshi and his golden retrieved. for Ozzy, we're celebrating in Chicago.

Doing logistics. And Kevin Pinto has got a lovely birthday down in Los Angeles. And huge news for Aaron Heng. Just turned 23 with a dream job as media editor in the great city of Atlanta. And Ronica and Eric are celebrating three years together on a Caribbean cruise. Congratulations, Ronica and Eric. You know, I went on a Caribbean cruise when I was 13. Really?

Unlimited self-serve ice cream. It was great. Ronica and Eric, hope you're enjoying that too. And just a special shout out to Jack and Maria over at Amazon. We ran into those Yetis on our way into the recording today, and they're both looking fantastic. This is Jack. Nick and I both own stock of Airbnb and Nick own stock of Shakejack.