The Best One Yet - 👯 “Ladies Brunch” — Galentine’s $2.4B day. AI’s viral warning. Polymarket’s free grocery. +Sweethearts’ econ candy.

Episode Date: February 13, 2026

That viral blog post about AI taking your job… reveals our economy’s Catch 22.Galentine’s Day has become a $2.4B spending day… Because the best biz ideas start as jokes.A $10B prediction app opened a free grocery store?… True story (inspired by Ancient Rome).Plus, Sweethearts sells 8B heart-shaped candies this week… but now with an econ theme (“Split Rent”)AI essay: “Something Big Is Happening”: https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happeningBuy tickets to The IPO Tour (our In-Person Offering) TODAYAustin, TX (2/25): SOLD OUTArlington, VA (3/11): https://www.arlingtondrafthouse.com/shows/341317 New York, NY (4/8): https://www.ticketmaster.com/event/0000637AE43ED0C2Los Angeles, CA (6/3): SOLD OUTGet your TBOY Yeti Doll gift here: https://tboypod.com/shop/product/economic-support-yeti-doll NEWSLETTER:https://tboypod.com/newsletter OUR 2ND SHOW:Want more business storytelling from us? Check our weekly deepdive show, The Best Idea Yet: The untold origin story of the products you're obsessed with. Listen for free to The Best Idea Yet: https://wondery.com/links/the-best-idea-yet/NEW LISTENERSFill out our 2 minute survey: https://qualtricsxm88y5r986q.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_dp1FDYiJgt6lHy6GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Linkedin (Nick): https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/Linkedin (Jack): https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ About Us: The daily pop-biz news show making today’s top stories your business. Formerly known as Robinhood Snacks, The Best One Yet is hosted by Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Friday, the real Friday. February 13th, and today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-Boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Well, happy ski weekend to all those who celebrate. It's a three-day ski weekend, isn't it, Jack?

No, it's a joint birthday party. On Monday, we're holding a party for our first and 16th presidents, apparently. So to thank you to all the presidents who were born in this month, we muchly appreciate it. But Jack and I have three fantastic stories before your three-day weekend. What's on today's T-Boy? For our first story, there's a viral AI essay that is scaring everybody about their jobs. So we read all 5,000 words of it so you don't have to. And we found the existential catch-22 for our economy.

For our second story, what if we told you that two prediction apps opened grocery stores where all the food was free? Well, that's true. Right now, Polly Market is operating a free grocery store in New York City. Jack and I dug in. And our third and final story, happy gallon. Day to all those who celebrate. This fake holiday is now a $2.4 billion annual spending event. Because besties, the best business ideas start as jokes. And this one started on NBC.

But yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Fantastic mix of stories. Love the mix on the pod, Jack. Reese's owns Halloween. Peeps has Easter. Yes, they do, but the top-selling candy for Valentine's Day, what is it, Jack? Sweethearts. The heart-shaped sugar candy with the cute messages and the pretty pastel colors. You know, the kind of sugar candy that gives your cavities, cavities. 80% of candy eaten this weekend will be sweethearts, according to the Smithsonian. Eight billion of them are sold in the six weeks leading up to Valentine's Day each and every year,

but Jack and I have one fundamental question. How does this one hundred twenty-four-year-old confectionary stay relevant? And what is the answer, Jack? They actually update the message on the candy every year. Get this, the words printed on those sweethearts candies are changed every year based on a customer survey. I didn't know this. Did you know this? No, we'd have a T-Boy style to it.

Now, some of the messages stay forever. It's like the classics, be mine. But new ones are added each and every year, and they are based on the vibes. And the vibe of this year is in this economy? So if you open up a box of sweethearts this weekend, you'll see candies that say share login. Another one says split rent.

Another one says buy in bulk. Now, those are thrifty messages that make sense in 2026. Yes, they are. But we have some other ideas for affordability, I mean, Jack, what if we got a sweetheart's candy that said, T-Moo? How about a dupe diva? How about an eat now, pay later? Or how about a, yes, I will check my luggage for that $100 in free airline credit.

Or mom, what Netflix password? Besties in this economy even candy gets it. Drop a comment if you've got a better affordability theme sweetheart message. In the meantime, book the dentist and I will head up to see them. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dawn. They had an idea that caused a cultural. storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice.

50% that's a fat tip. T-boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, everyone is talking about this existential essay. The title, Something Big is coming. AI is like COVID. explain the viral essay and the scary catch-22 it means for our economy in 2026. So yet, it is funny thing. Tuesday night, I went to dinner with a few guys. One of them worked at Anthropic, one of them worked at Open AI. And hope you'll let them pay the tab, Nick.

Well, they're in opposite sides of the table. You've got to keep them apart from each other. But you know what? It's been a weird week in the AI world. That was the topic of the whole dinner. Not just because Anthropic declared war against Open AI with their two Super Bowl. commercials. Total diss track on Sam Malmant, but also because a top researcher just quit Open AI, citing the business as having an existential risk. He wrote not bad about it in the New York Times. And another researcher left Anthropic for similar reasons and actually wrote a poem about leaving. Both are worried that ethics are being trumped by profits, with one comparing all of it to the whole Facebook move fast and breaking things. Also this week, Heineken laid off 6,000 workers

citing AI as a reason they could do it. I'm sorry, Jack, AI, replacing beer workers? What is going on? And that's not even the wildest part, is it, Jack? Anthropic just hired a real-life philosopher. A philosopher, a chief philosopher officer, basically. But this secretically trained person, her job is now to train artificial intelligence on morality.

Add it all up, Besties, and AI anxiety hit an all-time high this week. And the big surprise is where it's all coming from. From within Silicon Valley. Therapists in San Francisco booked out. But Bestie, The biggest cry for attention out of all of this, the most freaky and the most viral. What is it, Jack? An essay titled, Something Big is Happening, and it's written by an AI entrepreneur named Matt Schumer.

Matt Schumer. He crafted a 4,000 word alarm that has gotten 70 million views in just its first day of being published. This essay put up numbers like a TikTok dance video. We linked to it in the show notes, by the way. The subject, a warning. Your job is already being affected by AI. And he used an analogy. He said artificial intelligence is like COVID.

So, Jack, let's dive in T-boy style to that. Let's go back to the year 2020, the month, February. Starting in February of 2020, in the next 30 days, the entire world changed forever. The stock market fell 30%. You left your office, and in some cases, you never came back. You masked up for the next 12 months, and you started elbow tapping people instead of high-fiving them. Well, the climax of this essay is that February 2026 is the same exact situation.

It's the last feeling of normalcy before a momentous world-changing shift. Because the latest AI models, they trained themselves. The latest AI products, they developed themselves. And Matt positions himself in the essay as victim number one. As he put it, I am no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job. And Matt says it's not just tech workers who should be worried. AI is coming for all white-collar jobs, starting this year, he says. Basically, the whole kale-collar workforce.

like us, lawyers, finance, creators, doctors, he was referring to all of it. And he's not the first person to say this. Last year, Anthropic CEO said that half of entry-level white-collar jobs could be eliminated because of AI in just the next few years. Well, then Matt addressed his critics, those who say they're not worried about this situation. Maybe you tried chat GPT last year and you're like, there's no way this thing can replace my job. That sucked. It hallucinated a whole thing about my grandmother that never happened. Well, since just last week with new model updates, AI models now have judgment and taste. His words. And AI now builds AI.

So his advice? Stop using AI just ask questions like, what's that thing in my thigh? That is not enough. He says, you should start changing the way you work. Change the way you parent even. And start saving money in case you lose your job. Scary stuff. Scary stuff. But besties, Jack and I jumped in T-boy style. And we should add a light pill to this dark pill. situation, shouldn't we, Jack? Well, let's undermine his credibility a little bit. Because Matt has been accused of exaggerating the abilities of the AI products that he developed at his old company. And in the essay, he never really talks about the potential positive opportunities of AI. Like, the AI goes off and books your whole vacation for you while you're enjoying a nice dinner. Plus, we noticed that the writing felt a little strange. Yeah, Jack and I are a couple writers,

so we're very focused on how people write. Turns out he used AI to help him write the essay. So, So, Jack, what's the takeaway for everyone, including podcast hosts who could be replaced by AI? It's the catch-22 of 26. Either the job market will fall or the stock market will. Now, Yetis, the S&P 500, it's close to all-time highs on one bet, a bet that AI will generate enormous profits. But the only way that bet is true is if companies see huge value in AI. Can we get a translation on that, Jack?

They're willing to pay big for AI because it helps them replace human workers. Now, Bassies, if that bet is wrong, an AI is actually overhyped. Workers may be safe, which is good, but the stock market would crash, which is bad. Yeah, it's like a seesaw situation. Now, we could be wrong, we hope we're wrong, but the logic, it does feel sound. It could be a false choice, but if we are in a catch-22 moment for 2026, either the job market will fall or the stock market will. Now, to state the obvious, if that is the real choice, we hope the AI, we hope it's a bit overhyped. We'll keep the jobs.

We'll take a bit of it. a stock market correction. If we have to choose, we're rooting for the human workers, not the hyper-scalers and their stock. For our second story, it's Galantines Day. The joke from a Parks and Rec episode became a $2.4 billion retail category. We're making a fake holiday real, and Galentine's Day nails it. Oh, yeah, it is the best day of the year, according to Leslie Nupp. February 13th, Happy Galentine's Day to all those you celebrate. Amy Poller's character created the fake holiday in Parks and Rec, the hit 2010 NBC comedy. It's dedicated to celebrating the love you already have with your lady friends.

So we see you, Jess, Julie, and Jolinda, enjoy the dinner as for three. And yes, just get the charcutory board. We know everybody wants it. But the reason we're doing this story is that 16 years after this fictional holiday was created on a fictional show, it's become a very real thing. Okay, so much so that we noticed the National Retail Federation just put out a whole report on it. The thing's fish. The report highlights a record $29 billion will be spent this Valentine's Day, which is a record high. But also $2.4 billion spent on Galentine's Day,

basically buying gifts for your friends instead of your lovers. Canva, the go-to place to DIY your Valentine's Day card, they founded 207% jump in searches for Galantines Day versus last year. That's a tripling, Nick, because ladies across the country are kicking it, breakfast style this Galentine's Day. And yes, let's get a cheese too. We'll need another round of cheese. just outed yourself as not a real Parks and Rec fan. They eat waffles. That's not what Ron told me, Jack. But besties, if there's one thing Jack and I know about capitalism, it's, well, what is it, Jack? Well, if there's demand, supply will come. Jack, I think Adam Smith called that the invisible hand of... Exactly. Right. That's why Target has a dedicated section for Galantines Day gifts now.

And Walmart is now selling, I love you a whole brunch, inflatable balloons. And Wirecutter's newest article, the 24 best Galantines Day gifts. So Bessie's if you saw anything giftable, create a Galantines Day bundle before your competition does. Well, let's sprinkle on some context on that $2.4 billion spent on Galantines Day. That's one-tenth of Valentine's spending, one-fifth of Halloween spending. It's a huge number. I mean, Jack, $2.4 billion is equal to the amount we spend on actual flowers on actual Valentine's Day. So Violet, your single friend, is getting as much love as Violet, the flower today. We also should point out in the spirit of equality that for men, there is the equivalent, and it is known as,

Palantines Day. I thought we were going with Valand Dude's Day. Can we do that? That doesn't roll off the tongue nearly as well. Fine. We'll settle on February. But either way, besties, we don't have the numbers on the men's version because, you know, guys just aren't good

at sharing their emotions and those kind of statistics. Still, a staggering amount of money is spent on a fake holiday that didn't exist 20 years ago. Which leads to a truism Jack and I really believe in. The best business ideas start as jokes. And this one started on NBC. So, Jack, what's the take? away for all our buddies celebrating at Galantines. There's a formula to faking it. Now yet he's here,

T-boy, Jack and I don't think that this is just dumb luck. We think you can reverse engineer anything, and so we did that with Galantines Day. There's a three-part formula to inventing a fake holiday and making it real, and Galentine's Day proves it. Okay, the first part of the formula, you need to find a habit that people are already doing. In this case, girls were going out around Valentine's Day to celebrate friendship. The second part of the formula, don't replace an You don't want to compete. Just make it close. In this case, the day before Valentine's Day. And then final part of the formula, sprinkle on some capitalism. Because you need the brands to promote this thing if you want it to be big, and they won't promote it unless it's a profit puppy.

So, Basties, don't just celebrate Galantine's Day tonight. If you're a marketer, brainstorm a new one. Cyber Monday? Free Cone Day? Singles Day in China? They all did this. They all did it. So, besties, what is the next fake holiday that you can build from this three-part fake formula? Jack and I'll hit the commercials. We'll look for your answer in the comments. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story before the weekend, Polymarket, the predictions platform, just opened a free grocery store in New York City. Why is a predictions app giving away free food all weekend?

Ancient Rome. That's why. Bread and circuses. Yeties, the prediction markets. What started at a, is a way to bet on the 2024 presidential election. It's become a way to bet on, you know, anything. Prediction markets, they're a way to predict the future, they're a way to gamble, and they're a way to insider trade without getting in trouble. All at the same time, without any regulation, not too shabby. Prediction markets are driving the casino economy. Americans are trying to get rich and have fun while doing it. And during the Super Bowl, it exploded even more. Predictions apps were beating traditional betting this year. Call she did $1 billion in Super Bowl wagers, which is way more than

Vegas did. But yet he's here's what Jack and I find fascinating because it's something we never expected. One of the prediction apps opened a free grocery store yesterday in New York City. The polymarket free grocery market. And why are they doing this exactly, Jack? Well, the company based in New York calls it a love letter to the city. It's also a little bit of a side dig against the new mayor, Zora Manbani, who campaigned on city-run grocery stores. It's only open for five days. For three of them, they're offering free food until they run out of food. On Saturday, tomorrow, they're doing free flowers and Valentine's Day carts until you waited to the last minute.

And on Monday, they're taking donations of food to feed the hungry. But strategically, interestingly, revealingly, they chose the West Village to be the location of this free grocery store. What do we know about the West Village, Jack? Well, a lot of rich New Yorkers live there, which is proof that this is a promotional stunt. It's not an effort to feed hungry New Yorkers. So the real goal here with the free grocery store,

get you to post on social media, aka Earned Media. They did it for the picture of the pineapple you posted. And maybe we'll make your first association with Polymarket be those guys that gave away the free food. But the most bizarre part of this story is that the same thing happened last week. That's right. Polymarkets are a rival call. She did the exact same thing with the free grocery store. We had to double, triple, and quadruple check this.

Another free grocery store from a totally different predictions market. So, besties, we got to ask, why are two dual and free grocery store stunts going on in the same two-week period? It makes us think there must be collusion. And it also makes us think of the Coliseum. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies over at the Predictions Apps? The most blunt PR tool in human history is bread and circus. Oh, yet he's rewatch the movie Gladiator again. And you're going to notice a scene with the Roman authorities throwing loaves of bread into the crowd. We remember it. That's a historically accurate reference to the pretext. practice of Roman emperors to prevent uprisings. Here's the strategy. Basically, offer the people

free food and free spectacles like a circus in the Coliseum to entertain them. Because a hungry and bored population is a dangerous one to emperor communist. Now, funny thing Jack and I've noticed, local politicians still do this. Like free food at a political rally for the guy running for mayor, you've seen it. I've never heard of this guy, but I got free chili with melted cheese on top of his tent, so I'll vote for him. All takes is chili to win that thing. Well, that is what Polymarket is going for here. Earned the quickest most positive association from people with their brand. Offer them a blunt short-term utility, free food, in order to improve their public opinion. After all, Polymarket does not want to be associated with or regulated like a sports betting product.

And they're lobbying hard to not be. So Basti is the most blunt PR tool in human history goes all the way back to the ancient Romans. Give the people bread and circuses. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday? Something big is coming. It's the latest existential warning that AI will upend our world. Whether he's right or not, we've got a catch-22. Either the jobs market will fall or the stock market will.

For our second story, Galentine's Day is now a $2.4 billion retail spending event, with marketers getting in on it. But we found the formula to fake in it, the formula to make a fake holiday real. And our third and final story is Polymarket, which opened a Polymarket, an actual grocery store for five days with everything free.

Because like the Roman emperors, they're offering people, the bread, and the circus. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, a whole lot going on down in D.C. Government shutdown begins tonight before Valentine's Day over a fight over Department of Homeland Security funding. It's the third shutdown in President Trump's second term in office. Also, Congress just voted to overturn Trump's tariffs against Canada. And yesterday, President Trump erased the government's power to fight climate change in what he's touting as the biggest act of deregulation ever. And second, the Pope is going to Wall Street. The Vatican is partnering with Morningstar to launch the first ever Catholic Stock Index.

It helps investors find companies that are morally aligned with J.C. The first Vatican Stock Index. Tickr symbol, P.O.P. Well, we don't know for sure, but I think it's going to be WWJD. And finally, this year's Olympic medals are the most valuable ever, but they're also, they're falling apart. There's the good news. With gold and silver prices near all-time highs, a gold medal is worth a record $2,300 just in the gold in there. Okay, but before you celebrate, Jack,

according to the Wall Street Journal, multiple medals have already been returned in their first week for breaking. There's issues with the medals. The Italians, they're known for their design, not their engineering. The medals this year, a little less Ferrari, a little more Fiat. Well said. Now, time for the best fact yet. this one is our choice for the best side hustle among the Yetis, which we asked for in yesterday's

pod. So many of you told us your epic side hustles, and we are impressed. We can do a whole episode on your side hustles. Thank you. But we're especially impressed by Carly Bacchus, who is a dentist that side hustles as a solid core coach. And get this, her boyfriend works in M&A, and his side hustle is as a scuba diver. Not just a scuba diver. He scuba dives in the panes penguin tank at the zoo to clean the tank. That's right. This one couple of two people has four jobs going on, and one of them is making the zoo clean.

One of them is penguin poo cleaner at the local zoo. Carly and your boyfriend, thank you for side hustle and the way you hustle. Yeties, you looked fantastic all week. Jack, you are glowing going into the three-day weekend, my friend. You too, man. Yeah, oh, we got less than two weeks to the live show. We got a bunch of wins to celebrate and some really cool.

stuff that's going on for this thing. I will be skiing Saturday and Sunday, and the conditions in Vermont are immaculate. As you've been in Colorado, enjoy the apprais. So celebrate the wins this weekend. Nick and I, we'll see you Tuesday. Before we go, a happy birthday to legendary Yeti, Stephanie Goh from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. She's got a birthday and a new job and listening like 12 hours away right now. Happy birthday to Anshul Krishnan in

Boston, just outside Boston. And Ria Merci Merchandani is celebrating the best birthday yet on that commute in San Francisco. Happy birthday to Skyler Fry. a bartender in ballerina in Pocatello, Idaho. And Karen P, enjoy the Big Queen's birthday. Happy birthday to Christine Solano in Studio City, who survived a surgical error. And Zach Becker in Cedarsburg, Wisconsin

has got the best birthday yet, and a side hustle called Fairy Tale Audio. It'll make you cry. A big shout-out to Ryan Ford for recording his new album in Chicago. And Ellie and Justin Futrell have got the 10-year anniversary down in Denver, baby. Happy anniversary to David and Julie over in Oakland.

And Manny and Connie enjoy the 26th year together down in Orlando. Congratulations. And a shout out to Channing Starot for spreading wins at his new job at Heffer International. This is Jack. Nick and I both own ETFs of the S&P 500.