The Best One Yet - 🥞 “Maple Syrup Mayhem” — Trade War’s wild 24 hours. Robinhood’s Super Bowl bet. Levi’s Baggy Secret.

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Tuesday, T-Boy, Tuesday, February 4th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop-business news stories you need to know today. Not a T-boy for stocks, was it, Jack? Not a T-boy. Stocks fell yesterday because of our first story. Oh, yes, they did. Jack, three stories for the pod. What have we got on the T-boy? For our first story. The trade war that was about to start with Mexico and Canada is on pause for one month. The benefits so far are a more secure. border. The costs, they need to take a little longer to measure. For our second story, how did Levi's identify the baggy-dadi jeans trend before any other apparel company? Get this, five years ago, Levi struck a secret deal with Google. And our third and final story is the top stock in America since Election Day. What is it, Jack? Robin Hood. Robin Hood. And now Robin Hood is putting all its chips on the Super Bowl. But before we hit that wonderful mix of stories, fantastic mix for a T-boy Tuesday, Jack. Trivia. What board game was once banned by both Cuba and the Soviet Union?

Starting point is 00:01:05 It wasn't twister. It feels like it's not twister. No, it wasn't. It's the game that was invented to criticize America, but instead glorified it. Cards against humanity? No. This game is actually played in two out of three American homes today, and it's the best-selling board game of all time. Oh, I think I know what it is, Jack. It's a game you buy with real money, but you play it with fake money. Monopoly. Monopoly! Here it is, Jack. What do you think? Do you hear that? I guess you're the banker for this episode. Yeti's monopoly's origin story is actually the opposite of what you expect. Because this game rewards greed, but was invented to stop greed. Yeti's monopoly is a tribute to capitalism. But it was created by a woman who was basically a communist. And on top of all that, the whole idea was actually stolen by another guy who ended up getting a monopoly on Monopoly's riches. So besties, you played Monopoly, but you don't know Monopoly. And that best-selling board game ever is the next episode of our weekly show, The Best Idea Yet.

Starting point is 00:02:08 TBIY, the untold origin stories of the most viral products of all time. So, later today, after this, T-boy, go check out our weekly deep dive show, The Best Idea Yet. New episodes drop every Tuesday. Tap the link in this episode description, because Monopoly is simply the best idea yet. Dibs on the Thimble. Dibs on the railroad. I need a look. 15 years before this song.

Starting point is 00:02:31 Two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go.

Starting point is 00:02:49 We can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, we've got a trade war. Two update. Wild day. Painful import tariffs on Mexico, they're getting delayed a month. And guess what? So are the tariffs with Canada. Crisis averted, but here are the deals that were reached yesterday. Yesterday, eddies, we covered the opening shots of Trump's second trade war, Trade War II.

Starting point is 00:03:29 Then, President Trump and President Shinebound of Mexico had a phone call Monday morning, and they both decided to delay their tariffs on each other by one month. All right, Jack, results of the phone call. What do we see, man? agreed to protect their border with the United States with 10,000 troops to stop illegal drug and immigration crossings. So it seems like for Mexico, Trump's trade threat worked. This deal could limit illegal immigration and illegal drugs like fentanyl from entering the United States. And we saw some stocks in the stock market issue a huge sigh of relief. Yeah, Chipotle, Ford, America's number one beer, Madello. They all rely on Mexican-made stuff,

Starting point is 00:04:08 which would have gotten more expensive with a new 25% made in Mexico tax. Again, next weekend, your Super Bowl guac was about to be extra extra. So for Mexico and the United States, they're still on good trading terms for now. How about Canada? Well, Jack, funny, you should ask. Bessie's, just as Jack and I were recording this podcast, and I had three buckets of maple syrup about to hoard in my pantry. We got an update.

Starting point is 00:04:36 Donald Trump reached a deal with Justin Trudeau of Canada. yesterday. Pretty much the same outcome for pretty much the same deal. Canada is investing $1.3 billion to secure their border with the United States along with 10,000 frontline personnel. As a result, both the USA and Canada are delaying their tariffs on each other from coming into effect by one month, just like with Mexico. Basically, the benefits of both of these trade deals appear to be border related. So, Jack, can we sprinkle on a little more context to both of our northern and southern borders place. Yeah, when it comes to the borders, they're not equal. For example, less than 1% of the fentanyl that the U.S. Border and Customs Patrol sees last year, only 1%

Starting point is 00:05:19 was from Canada. 99% came from Mexico. So with Mexico, the border concerns were very real, and there was a clear benefit there. With Canada, not as much. Still, Trump's going to call the Canada announcement a win that he used the threat of tariffs to extract policy concessions. Now, interestingly, Basties, earlier in the day, Trump implied there was only one way for Canada to escape all of these tariffs. He said this from the Oval Office yesterday. I'd like to see Canada become our 51st state. And since the tariffs have been merely delayed a month, they haven't been solved yet, he's keeping the world on the edge of its seat. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies trying to add up what happened in the last 24 hours of global trade? The costs of what happened are going to take time to measure.

Starting point is 00:06:07 Yeties, we just discussed the benefits of this trade war. The United States gets reinforced borders a clear policy win. The costs are more obscure. Since we haven't actually had tariffs yet, the two main costs of this trade war have been reputation and uncertainty. Right. First, the U.S. reputation, as in whether allies can rely on us, because we just almost started a trade war with two of them. And policy uncertainty, whether businesses can

Starting point is 00:06:32 plan for their investments when the rules are so chaotic. But the very fact that allies and foes could be threatened with massive tariffs at any moment, that has a cost. CEOs hate that kind of uncertainty and that kind of policy whiplash. So besties add it all up and it's going to take months, maybe years, before you can properly compare the costs and the benefits of trade war too. We'll see what happens. We'll cover it on the show. For our second story, LeVos has become the big winner of the baggy daddy jeans trend. This story is about how Levi's used Google to predict a fashion trend and it worked. But Jack, if we're going to tell this story, then get in the car loser. We're going shopping for loose and oversized jeans. Wide jeans, boyfriend jeans, relaxed jeans, slouchy jeans? Is

Starting point is 00:07:24 that a fit? It is. All I know is the best sellers of the jeans with enough material to sew a parachute out of. Slim fit has died a slow death. I'm keeping mine though, Jack. They're going to come back. In Levi's latest earnings call, the CEO mentioned the word baggy six times, which was kind of hilarious. Baggy-doddy jeans. Their sales are up 15% at Levi. That is three times the pace of overall jeans sales. Here's the wilder stat. Baggy jeans are a basket booster for Levi's. True. You need to buy a whole wardrobe to match those big baggy jeans. The average customer buying baggy jeans also bought one additional item to pair with those jeans. So not just a hundred-dollar jeans. you're suddenly spending $500 on matching shoes and a top as well.

Starting point is 00:08:06 Sorry, Mom, I'm going to need more Stella McCartney pumps new jeans. Now, we covered Levi's as Baggy Bump two years ago on this podcast. We did. But we just found out how Levi's knew about it. This is what we found fascinating about the story, Yetis. Levi actually predicted the baggy-daddy gene trend five years ago, thanks to Google. In 2020, Levi signed a deal with Google Cloud to collect denim sales data worldwide. Then the engineering nerds over at Google ran a daily machine algorithm to identify

Starting point is 00:08:38 purchase trends, that's a direct quote, their words, according to the Wall Street Journal. They pulled receipts from 50,000 stores, 49,000 of which were not Levi's stores. That's key. So they gave Levi's data from other stores that were selling Levi's, like Macy's, Bloomingdale's, or like, I don't know, the tri-state county mall that you shop at. That sounds lovely for a visit on a Saturday, Jack. And what was Google's discovery that they shared with the denim dudes over Levi. That massive trove of data showed Levi's that it's not just Gen Z. Jenny buying looser-fit jeans. Mom wants them, grandma wants them, uncles and dads want looser jeans too. Millennial Millie and Boomer Bob, they're all getting

Starting point is 00:09:18 looser-fit jeans, it appeared, without anyone picking up on this. Google's data showed that the baggy jeans trend was multi-generational, and they gave Levi that information early. On the other hand, if Levi's only had their own customer data, like, they would have found out too late. They don't even know the age you are when you're buying this stuff. Instead, Levi's moved fast to offer baggy jeans to all bodies to men and to women. And that's wild. This 172-year-old company that began by selling 501s to gold miners from a horse and buggy, they just went full Silicon Valley.

Starting point is 00:09:53 Cheon and Timo, they identify real-time fashion trends with their app. Well, Levi's managed to upstate. stream them with the help of Google. Where were you on the yak sweater trend, though, Levi? I can't wait for that birthday present, man. I'm working on it, Jack. I'm working on it. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Levi's? Guts are good for innovation. Data is best for revelation. Yeties, one of our most popular stories last year was one that we did about going with your gut instead of following the data. But how do you know which to go with? Well, here's a guiding tool. Here's the way Jack and I think of it. Go with your gut on

Starting point is 00:10:28 challenges of the imagination, like creating something new. For example, the iPhone, Steve Jobs went with his gut and innovated something completely new. Oh, on the other hand, data is a powerful tool for identifying trends. Netflix uses data from existing shows to decide what next show to produce. Yeah, and we just saw that Google's denim data is how Levi recognized the baggy, daddy gene trend before anyone else. It's not limited to this, but in general, your gut is best for innovation. Data is best for revelation. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, the best performing stock since the election,

Starting point is 00:11:11 it's Robin Hood. Because Robin Hood has turned privacy into publicity. We'll explain. But Jack, first, let's go back in time a little bit. Remember the GameStop drama? Oh, do I remember. January of 2021, Robin Hood was very, very. The story, and Nick and I were working there. Yeah, that was back when we were at Robin Hood. We were doing the podcast, and man, that was intense. AMC, cat memes, game stop to the moon, and then game stop to the floor. Well, after that, Robin Hood spent a couple years in the penalty box with regulators,

Starting point is 00:11:45 but Jack, Robin Hood is back, baby. The viral stock trading app emerged from Sherwood Forest in brand new brand colors. Just last year, Robin Hood turned from green to neon yellow and black. And they also launched a new version of Robin Hood, like a Bloomberg tournament for active stock traders. And right before the election, they launched prediction markets. You could bet on Trump or Harris in the stock trading app. You could bet on the presidential election. But here's the news. Grab your helmets and your jockstraps because Robin Hood is now in sports betting.

Starting point is 00:12:19 Just like with the election, Robin Hood is partnering with Kalshi, but this time to let you bet on the chiefs or the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Now, we dove in T-boy style to this, and technically they say this isn't sports betting, but Jack, this is betting on sports. Anyone on the Robin Hood app can bet on the Chiefs sounds like sports betting to me. But here was the bigger observation from Jack and I. Robin Hood stock is actually the top performing stock of the Trump presidency. It has nearly doubled since Election Day. You got a crypto come back, a deregulation push, bullish vibes across the market.

Starting point is 00:12:55 They're all good for the Robin Hood. app. And that's why Robin Hood stock is actually up 400% in just the last year. It's at $50, which is about 25% higher than its 2021 IPO. Now, yet he's, Jack and I worked at Robin Hood. We sold our first company to Robin Hood. And the way we've always seen Robin Hood is as a finance company, that really wants to be a social media company. Right. When we got there, they were doing their first growth hack, which was to share the app with a friend. And if your friend signed up for Robin Hood, you both got a free stock. Oh, you want new features on Robin Hood?

Starting point is 00:13:29 Then you have to sign up for a Robin Hood wait list and then share that waitlist with friends to move up on the wait list. The meme stock trend we mentioned earlier, that powered Robin Hood's rise and it was really all about social media. Now, these growth hacks were incredibly successful. But just last week,

Starting point is 00:13:44 Robin Hood got two new competitors in the social investing space. First, Elon's X announced Venmo-like payments are coming to the X app in a partnership through Visa. And then Trump's first, Truth Social partnered with Charles Schwab for crypto, ETF, and stock trading. So actual social media platforms are entering the investing space now.

Starting point is 00:14:05 And that's new. So Robin Hood's stock is up, but Robin Hood's got two brand new competitors starting last week. So we've got a brand new takeaway. Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Robin Hood? It's the private to public pivot. We're seeing it everywhere. Yeties, Robin Hood recognized early on. the opportunity in turning a private action into a public activity.

Starting point is 00:14:30 We'll explain. We're talking about investing because money and investment decisions were historically taboo to share. But now, they're not really taboo anymore. You know, we're okay telling you that we've lost a lot of money owning Peloton stock and we still own it. Are we ever going to sell? Never jack. But besties, we have seen other companies also capture that value too. They take a private act and they make it a public act.

Starting point is 00:14:54 Think about LinkedIn. Yes. They turn job promotions and unemployment announcements into assets that you share with everyone. Or Jack, what about Twitch? They took gaming from a solo gamer activity to a spectator sport. And TikTok, they turned journaling and confessions from something very private into a public act for your followers to see. Yeah, you want to share with the besties what our guess is that Robin Hood does next? They're going to make a feature so that you can really easily share your portfolio.

Starting point is 00:15:24 and your trades on Instagram, TikTok, and X. Next thing you know, that Peloton investment, it's going to be on your Tinder profile. Robin Hood's revival shows the hidden opportunity in turning the private, public. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for T-Boy Tuesday? The trade war that was about to start

Starting point is 00:15:44 with Mexico and Canada is on pause for one month. The benefits so far are a more secure border. The costs, they need to take a little longer to measure. For our second story, Levi's became the leader of the baggy jeans trend. data from Google. Go with your gut for innovation, but go with data for revelation. And our third and final story is Robin Hood. It's a top stock since the election and just launched Super Bowl betting. Robin Hood shows the value of making something that was private, public. Which Nick and I have to do

Starting point is 00:16:12 in our disclosures every episode. I still own shares of Beyond Meat. I'm just going to throw that one out there too, Jack. I haven't told you, but I actually sold my Peloton. The machine. Not the stock. I still have the stock, but I sold the machine on Facebook. You buy and hold that one, baby. But yet is this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, although tariffs with our allies were called off, tariffs with China actually begin today.

Starting point is 00:16:39 A new 10% tax on everything made in China entering the U.S. starts today. That is going to raise some government tax revenue, but also increase prices and hurt company profits that make in China. Don't be surprised, though, if a new deal with China delays those tariffs by a month too. Yeah. And second, Roku is launching a women's sports now program on the Roku channel. This women's sports show is a partnership with Reese Witherspoon's Hello Sunshine production company. What is the Roku channel, by the way? It's their channel for free TV content, but with that. They've got the great American baking show. Interesting. And yes, Paul Hollywood is in it.

Starting point is 00:17:18 Classic. And finally, grab the makeup remover because Blue Man Group, the musical of God, Painted in Blue hitting pipes just had its last show ever. After 34 years and 17,000 shows and 82,000 gallons of paint, the Blue Men Group are done. Yeah, Blue Man Group was actually acquired 15 years ago by Cirque de Soleil, and then they were acquired by a private equity firm. And that private equity firm decided that the blue paint was too expensive. One show, my buddy almost got hit with a marshmallow. And I'll never get it. There was a scramble on the floor, and somebody ate that marshmallow. Now time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Eduardo S in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Starting point is 00:18:00 On February 4th, 2004, yes, Jack. 21 years ago today, Mark Zuckerberg and his roommates launched the Facebook from the Harvard dorm room. Get this, though, yeties. Facebook's early code included a feature called FaceMash. Which was a hot or not style swiping game with the Harvard student body being judged by classmates. Which got Mark Z in a lot of trouble with Harvard. And that controversy is what led him to create the Facebook instead. So, it's Facebook's 21st birthday.

Starting point is 00:18:30 It is. Send us a pick from your 21st birthday because you probably posted that pick on Facebook. And you're probably going to look at it and be like, man, I got to take that pick off of Facebook. So send us your 21st birthday Facebook book on Facebook's 21st birthday. Yeties, you look fantastic today. But before you go, we know exactly where you should. should go, and it's to the board game Monopoly. We got a link in the episode of description for our 45-minute deep dive on the wild origin

Starting point is 00:19:01 story of Monopoly. It's crazy. Monopoly began as a game that was anti-capitalism, and then it got totally embraced by capitalism. Yeah, Greed is apparently good, at least if you have Broadway Junction. So check out the best idea yet right now, and Jack and I, we'll see you there. And before we go, a happy birthday to Katie Martel, my sister down to. to New York City who's celebrating either at a Rangers game or at a club that I could not get into, Jack, down in Tribeca.

Starting point is 00:19:33 Trick question. Both. And a happy 25th anniversary to the Sims video game turning 25 today. Happy birthday to Paul Miraglia from Port Washington, New York, where my dad grew up and a graduate of Carnegie Mellon University's MBA program. And Marshall is turning 32 years old over in Chicago dual logistics. Happy birthday to Calvin Chang in Sugar Land, Texas. And congratulations. to Stella in Philadelphia, who sold her first Girl Scout cookies box. Congratulations, Stella. Jack, let's bring that sales bill. And if you wanted to get a shout out or submit the best fact yet, check out the links in the episode description. Jack and I will get you on the pod. This is Jack. Nick and I both own stock of Chipotle and Robin Hood, and I own stock in Roku.

The Best One Yet - 🥞 “Maple Syrup Mayhem” — Trade War’s wild 24 hours. Robinhood’s Super Bowl bet. Levi’s Baggy Secret.

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