The Best One Yet - 👋 “Meet the New Boss” — Kevin’s Fed. Super Bowl commercial dating. Brag Book job hack. +Secret Starbucks store

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Nick. This is Jack. Welcome back. It is Monday, February 2nd. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. P-to-P pumped-a-pod, the most interesting place in business, Jack? Should we hit this? What do we got going on? First, trivia. What movie just got inducted to the National Film Hall of Fame? It's not Home Alone One. I'm going to go Home Alone, too. It's got to be Home Alone, too. The answer is clueless. Clueless. As if, Jack. I thought you were going to say, say, mean girls, which gets a mention later in this episode. Hands off the Beamer. Three fantastic stories for today's show. Jack, what do we got on the team boy? For our first story, how to build your own brag book. A list of your 2026 accomplishments at work. Besties, it's a brag book.

Starting point is 00:00:47 If you want to get a promotion or bonus this December, you need one now. For our second story, Kevin Warsh is the nominee to replace Jerome Powell as the chairman of the Fed. Meet the new boss. He's not the same as the old boss. And our third and final story. Super Bowl is this coming Sunday, but a Super Bowl commercial has already gone viral. But Jack, why does a $10 million Super Bowl ad actually cost $30 million? We got the full receipt.

Starting point is 00:01:11 Oh, we got the receipts, baby. But Yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. What a mix of stories. No one else is doing that mix to kick off the week. I went to Starbucks's Investor Day in New York City last week. I already told you that. True story. It's the Starbucks biggest day of the year.

Starting point is 00:01:24 Jack met the CEO, joked with the CEO, Brideady, as we call him. I actually made three jokes in all three sentences I said to him. As long as he laughed at two of them, we're winning, Jack. We're winning. Now, on the pot on Friday, we did a whole story about Starbucks's New Year's resolution. How Starbucks wants to win your 4 PM caffeine fix. But we also learned a wild fact about Starbucks that you definitely did not know. You definitely don't know this.

Starting point is 00:01:49 So for Tea Boy Trivia, we want you to guess the answer. What is the only Starbucks in the country that does not write your name on your cup? We repeat. What is the only Starbucks? in the world where they can't write your name. There's only one Starbucks where Americanos remain anonymous. The only Starbucks with no Sharpie on that vent date. I've got a cappuccino for one of you, says the barista.

Starting point is 00:02:11 How about a hint? Jack, can we do a hint? Okay, if they did write your name on the cup, they'd have to kill you. And Basties, we can't say any more about it. So drop your guests in the comments. We'll reveal it in tomorrow's pod. Let's reveal it at the end of the pod, Jack. In the meantime, latte for anonymous?

Starting point is 00:02:27 I've got latte for anonymous. Anonymous. Jack. Let's do our three stories. Fifteen years before this song. Two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm.

Starting point is 00:02:40 Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show.

Starting point is 00:03:00 First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, the first Super Bowl commercials are already out, and the biggest one is with Serena Williams. And this first Super Bowl ad has already gone viral, because the Super Bowl commercial doesn't cost $10 million. It actually costs three times as much. Yeties, happy Super Bowl week to all those who celebrate, right, Jack? I mean, I think the entire country celebrates. Yeah, it's actually our biggest holiday. And this Sunday's Super Bowl commercials, we're already predicting it.

Starting point is 00:03:37 You're going to see a whole lot of snaps. Stars, nostalgia, and puppies. Oh, those are the snaps. Lady Gaga, she's in one commercial. Mr. Beast is in another. Ben Stiller's poodle? Apparently, he's in like a third one of these. And the price of a Super Bowl commercial

Starting point is 00:03:50 hit a new record this year. Get this, one 30-second Super Bowl ad slot already sold for 10 million bucks this year. The highest price ever. That's $33,333 per second. Yeah, you knew where this was going. Exactly, NBC. Nowadays, they premiere Super Bowl commercials

Starting point is 00:04:07 a week before the game on YouTube. and one has gone viral already. Yes, it's the Rowe commercial with Serena Williams jabbing her tricep with a GLP one shot. The $7 billion biotech startup, Roe, they sell an Ozempic dupe. And the point of the commercial? Even tennis stars use weight loss drugs like Serena Williams. Even world-class athletes, apparently, use GLP-1s.

Starting point is 00:04:29 Okay, but Jack, pause the pot. Because it's not the commercial with Serena Williams that went viral, is it, Jack? It's the full frontal tweet that spilled the financials. financial details about the commercial. Get this. Last week, the founder of Roe revealed all the money, the cost, the budget that really went into that ad. He even shared spreadsheet screenshots. Totally. And Roe apparently paid NBC $10 million for the commercial, but had to write an additional

Starting point is 00:04:57 $20 million worth of checks. Okay, so let's math the math here. The $10 million price you hear about for a Super Bowl commercial? That's just for the 30-second ad slot. Now you have to fill that ad slot with a video. A good one, hopefully. So, we happen to have the receipts. And Jack, could you add up the Super Bowl bill for us, please? Production of the Super Bowl commercial costs one to four million dollars. The studio, the designer, the warder of the set, the hair and the makeup, the director, the backup dancers for it. But your Super Bowl commercial has to have some talent. That's $1 to $5 million. $63% of Super Bowl commercials last year. They had a celebrity, which ain't cheap. Serena Williams, she'd like a Fiji water in that dressing room. Now, the tweet that

Starting point is 00:05:36 revealed all these details was titled, the economics of a Super Bowl ad, and it was actually 5,000 words long. Twitter, not 128 characters anymore. So we dove in T-voiced Alan read it all weekend, and it was basically like a behind-the-scenes x-way into what really goes into a Super Bowl commercial. It was like seeing the marketing numbers naked. Or as we would call it, the anatomy of a Super Bowl commercial. So let's just add up all the numbers here. 10 million bucks going to NBC, and as much as 10 million more going to production and the celebrity. That's $20 million. Where's the final $10 million go, Nick?

Starting point is 00:06:09 We're missing like $10 million here. What's going on? That goes to the drag factor. Ah, the drag factor, and what is that? Get everyone who forgot the commercial a day after watching it to remember the brand again and take action. And that's the key to our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies watching the Super Bowl next weekend?

Starting point is 00:06:29 Super Bowl commercials are just a first date. just the start of a customer courtship. Yeties, the main goal of most Super Bowl commercials, it's awareness. Get people just to know your name. That's why Chat Chaptee's first commercial last year during the Super Bowl didn't say anything about what they actually did. But the whole point of advertising in general is to boost sales. So you've got to get them from awareness to conversion.

Starting point is 00:06:52 And that's what the remaining $10 billion budget goes to. Uh-huh. To drag the customer back and get them to take action. That's right. the advertiser will then buy billboards to remind people of that Super Bowl ad they just watched, or they'll buy Instagram videos to remind you to commit to the product you saw in the Super Bowl. We expect to see magazine spreads of Serena Williams to remind us that she does GLP-1s like we saw during the Super Bowl. This is what Roe is going to do after the Super Bowl, right? They already told us.

Starting point is 00:07:19 Roe's actually buying another 30-second slot from NBC during the Winter Olympics. It's all part of the drag factor. Besties. Super Bowl ads get all the excitement. But it's just 30 seconds of a bigger. deeper, longer marketing relationship. It's just a first date. The marketing team actually has a second, third, and fourth date plan to make sure they seal the deal. For our second story, so who is Kevin Warsh? The new guy replacing Jerry Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. But the trillion dollar question, Nick, is, will he be independent like all his predecessors, or will he take orders from the president? Oh, besties, we have all been watching the new reality show.

Starting point is 00:08:01 But instead of a bachelor getting a rose, it's an economist who gets a bag of gold. Although it's not his gold. It's the nation's gold. And he'd actually get in trouble if he spent that gold. Well, the wait is over on the season finale. President Trump finally spilled the beans by officially nominating a new Fed chair and hugging him on stage. His name is Kevin Warsh. And the New York Times led with a photograph of him looking very handsome in like some very stylish sunglasses. This is a very GQ Fed Pres situation.

Starting point is 00:08:30 Yeah, he's actually only 55. Well, let's walk through the resume here. What did we got on the LinkedIn, Jack? He's born and raised in upstate New York, just outside Albany. And he got his undergrad at Stanford and a lot of degree at Harvard. After all that school, he worked at Morgan Stanley and then became an economic advisor to President G.W. Bush working in the White House. And then he became the youngest ever Fed Governor in the year 2006. He worked for several years under Ben Bernanke's beard.

Starting point is 00:08:54 Well, then this 35-year-old was part of the 19 Federal Reserve officials who handled our 08 financial crisis. Again, just 35 years old. But he quit in 2012. He left the Federal Reserve years before his term ended because he didn't like how our central bank was operating. All right, so Jack, pause the pot. Interesting character study here for our Kevin Warsh guy, right? Former insider of the Fed became outsider and now is returning to disrupt the institution.

Starting point is 00:09:23 Feels more like the plot of a Netflix movie. Besties, Kevin, he thinks that the Federal Reserve intervenes too often. He thinks it should be more laissez-faire. He thinks it should basically back off and chill out. Like, stop overreaching. He thinks that, you know, that's for Congress to do, not for the central bank. It's French for relax, guys. Like if AI turns out to be a bubble that pops, this Fed chair would be less inclined to

Starting point is 00:09:44 bail out Sam Alman. And as long as President Trump and his administration drops their criminal investigation of Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh is likely to be approved by the Senate for a four-year term as Fed Chair. And when he does, we're going to play the sound clip from home alone. Kevin! But besties, like any bro on The Bachelor, this Kevin of the Federal Reserve is pitching the best version of himself right now. He's still not confirmed. He needs 50 votes in the Senate. So he's telling us that he can make our economy have both high economic growth and low inflation at the same time. Basically, he's bragging that he can get us the best of both worlds. More jobs, but less inflation.

Starting point is 00:10:24 Like kind of saying he has a six pack of abs and he'll remember your anniversary. And he writes poetry with a puppy. But Jack, is that just washful thinking when he says all that? There are a lot of different forces in this economy. Can Kevin really control them? On the one hand, President Trump's tax cuts and deregulation, those are both inflationary. They heat up the economy and could raise prices. Also, Jack, Trump's tariffs are probably inflationary, but then they also slow the economy down. So that could be deflationary. Then there's AI, which is almost definitely deflationary, as it's going to cover. cost and make things cheaper, hopefully. Aside from all that, we do know what the president wants and expects from his Federal Reserve. He wants and expects interest rate cuts because no American

Starting point is 00:11:07 likes having high interest rates. It's just not fun. And we assume that he picked Kevin Warsh because Kevin said he would deliver on those interest rate cuts. But are interest rate cuts what Kevin really thinks our economy needs right now? Because once Kevin gets the job, Kevin can do whatever he wants, kind of like the Kevin McAllister in home alone. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddy? Kevin! Over at the Federal Reserve. This new Fed chair will change our economy.

Starting point is 00:11:35 Will he change our way of government to? That's the trillion-dollar question. Yeti's economic history shows us that politicians always want low interest rates before elections. But central banks are immune from politics because our economy sometimes needs tough love, which is higher interest rates. Well, as recently as mid-20204, Kevin wanted high interest rates to kill inflation, like the current Fed chairman wants. But since last year, he's been calling for the opposite. Interest rate cuts, which is aligned with what President Trump wants.

Starting point is 00:12:05 Besties, putting it all aside, our only wish, once approved, we hope Kevin will do what he thinks is best for the country, not what's just best for the president who nominated him. Because strong economies have independent central banks, full stop. And besties, that's why this new Fed chair is a paradigm shift for the economy. but will he be a paradigm shift for the government too? That's the trillion-dollar question. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, we're one month into the year,

Starting point is 00:12:37 and here's the job hack that's not too late to start. To get promoted and get paid this year, you need a brag book, and you need to climb cringe mountain. Grab your career helmet. Yeties, we are all familiar with the burn book. Regina George and her plastics, filled a scrapbook with dirt and high school rumors.

Starting point is 00:12:56 Get it losers, we're going podcasting. A hundred pages of gossip to torture social enemies or reputation. She's still wearing made well jeans. But the Wall Street Journal just dropped an article on the opposite concept to a burn book. A brag book. A running list of your professional achievements. And we think it's a financial trick shot to boost your bonus. A brag book.

Starting point is 00:13:19 Or a smile file. Or your flex deck. Jack, how about a hype journal, a victory volume? We actually prefer the brag binder. Yes, we do. And full disclosure, before Jack and I became entrepreneurs together, we actually had one of these bragbook brag binders, didn't we not? We're our own bosses now, so we don't need a brag book anymore,

Starting point is 00:13:36 which is a really nice luxury to have. But the brag book is what got us promoted years ago, and honestly, it's what got us into business school. Because nobody is keeping track of your accomplishments except you. Sebasties, we know what you're thinking. How can you build a brag book? Well, it actually starts right now at the beginning of the year. Because the bragbook is an annual log of your qualitative and quantitative achievements.

Starting point is 00:13:57 Jack, let's whip up some examples here. What would like be in your bragbook over there? An investor sent me an email saying, that thing you sent, it's exactly what I needed. Put that in your brag book and take a screenshot of the email. Totally. Or like, that thing you did got mentioned by the CEO during the all hands? Write down to the deeds. Put that in your brag book. You took a risk. You dropped a Larry David joke and it made the client laugh hysterically. They were bawling right now. Put that in your brag book because that client is.

Starting point is 00:14:22 key for this business. Seriously, like Jack and I would use a Google Doc for our brag binders, or today you may use your Apple Notes. As long as it's a living dock that's easy to access, that works. Every week, we would record it on a Friday afternoon adding bullets on the work wins, even if we were flying back from a traveling work trip. Kind of like the thing Elon tried to make government workers do. What are like five things you did this week? We would actually do that because it was useful for our careers. But not with someone like looking over our backs. And these three examples we mentioned, like, they were all qualitative before. But like, whatever you can, you want to add numbers. Like the client who laughed at my joke,

Starting point is 00:14:57 guess what? Later that month, he placed a million dollar order. Or if you organized a conference, send a survey to the attendees, get an NPS score, put it in the brag binder. I mean, after we do this pod every day, Jack texts me, it's the best one yet. So that's kind of our mutual little text chain brag book right there. Now, here's why a brag book is so important. It eliminates recency bias that comes around for bonus season. Ah, recency bias, because come bonus season at the end of the year, your boss only remembers your latest work with them. But the clients and the sales that you achieved in the first half of the year, you don't want those to be forgotten. It's up to you to make your boss remember them. That's why we think the best way to write an email for why you should be promoted

Starting point is 00:15:37 is to pre-write that email. Avoid that blank page paralysis you can have by having a running list of all the wins from the year that you can populate in your memo. Basically what we're saying, besties, don't wait until your annual review in December to share it with your boss. Send it a month before so they know what you're hoping for. Build your bragbook now. It's your living log of legendary accomplishments. Even if you don't tend it to your boss, it's nice to just look through at the end of the year and be like, yeah, I did do all that. It was a good curb your enthusiasm jokes. Yeah. Satsiak, what's the takeaway for our buddies? Buildin their bragbooks. Now more than ever for your career, you need to get over and climb Cringe Mountain. Oh, yeah, these, we know.

Starting point is 00:16:17 your own horn, it sounds awkward. That phrase even sounds awkward. Like, I got a VP to share my pitch. That's awkward to brag about. There's nothing humble about bragging, especially to yourself. It feels like Cringe Mountain. That's Cringe Mountain. But like we said, unless you're a pro athlete, no one's going to track your accomplishments and stats for you. And right now, it's more important than ever to be able to tut your own horn when you need to. And here's why. Because HR uses AI. And hiring managers, they're relying on AI to scan your resume. And each win from your brag by That's the juicy nuggets that AI will notice and will get the attention of the hiring manager. And the timing is critical too, because Amazon just cuts 16,000 more jobs. Even Pinterest is cutting jobs these days.

Starting point is 00:16:58 The reality is that the workplace is a popularity contest. Your career rises based on the tracking and sharing of your achievements. So besties, if your New Year's resolution is a promotion or a job switch, it's time to climb Cringe Mountain. And the brag book is your first step. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us to kick off. the week. First, the Super Bowl commercials are actually three times more expensive than the price tag that you read about. Because the 30-second ad is just the first date. It's the start of a loving customer courtship. For our second story, Kevin Warsh is the nominee to be the new Fed chair starting in May. And Kevin, he's going to change the economy. But will he change our way of government to? That's the trillion dollar question. And our third and final story is about the bragbinder. It's your

Starting point is 00:17:44 vault of victories in the workplace, a tracker of your 10 out of tens. Get over any reliance. Get over any You have and climb a cringe mountain. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, do not melt your grandmother's Tiffany's bracelets and earrings quite yet. Bad day for silver and gold. Silver fell by 30% on Friday. One day.

Starting point is 00:18:07 Now, this came after both of those medals have been spiking all year to crazy all-time highs. The reason those medals spiked in the first place, well, the concern President Trump would pick a loyalist to be fed chair. which would be bad for the U.S. dollar. But the nomination of Kevin Warsh, a respected man in the finance industry, put some of those concerns to rest. So Silver lost some luster. Literally.

Starting point is 00:18:29 And second, Target and Walmart both have new CEOs starting day one on the job today. Get these guys some cupcakes. Now, both Target and Walmart chose longtime company men to take over the top job. Makes sense for Walmart, Jack. Their stocks up like 150% over the last five years. Target stock is down 40% in the last five years. But it made sense to, getting outsider, shake things up.

Starting point is 00:18:50 Could have gone more Tarjean on this one. And finally, last week we told you Elon wants to align his SpaceX IPO with astrology. Do it in June when the planets are aligned. Literally. But then we heard that he's actually proposing to merge all of his companies before this

Starting point is 00:19:06 one mega, like Armageddon IPO. Yeah, he wants to take SpaceX, Tesla, and XAI and make them all one company. They do all have the letter X in their names, we should point out. Well, Tesla doesn't, But they do have a car called Model X. Exactly.

Starting point is 00:19:21 So combining space and cars and robots and AI into all one business into the biggest IPO in history. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one, an answer to our T-Boy trivia that we asked at the top of the pod. What's the only Starbucks in the country that doesn't write your names on your cup? What is the only Starbucks, but they don't even have Sharpies because they will not write your name on anything? The answer? CIA headquarters. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:19:45 There's a Starbucks in the CIA. It's actually codenamed store one for Starbucks, and it's in the Central Intelligence Agency. They don't even write 007 on your cup. All the officers order it incognito. And if you think about it, have you ever seen James Bond drinking a latte? I don't know, man. Do you have a punchline coming? I mean, you're laughing, but you haven't, Jack.

Starting point is 00:20:04 You haven't. Yeties, you look fantastic over there. And you know where everyone really looks fantastic, Jack? Our live shows. In person when we get to hang out with you. The IPO tour are in-person offering Austin and Los Angeles. are both sold out. Arlington, Virginia, New York City, tickets are still available. Basties, if you're in New York or if you're in D.C., when we want to see you live, we got a ticket

Starting point is 00:20:27 site in this episode description. Grab your tickets now, and we'll see you on tour. Our run of show is insane. Let's just say we're going to have an opening ceremony, and we're going to have a closing ceremony, just like the Olympics. And if you bring your buddies, you can add this one to your bragbook. Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. Can't wait. And before we go, a happy birthday to Yeti's Ryan and Maeve Swanson, a father. other daughter duo with the same birthday, turning 28 and turning 2 over Minnesota.

Starting point is 00:20:56 Happy birthday to Magdalena Valenzuela, turning 13 in Des Moines, Iowa. And Liz, over New York City is a six-year Yetty with the best birthday yet. Happy 34th birthday to Peter Trin in San Jose, California. And Caroline Buckeye down in Tampa's, turning 25. This is going to be her best life quarter yet.

Starting point is 00:21:13 Happy birthday to Jackie Alvarez in Long Beach. And Sandy Schlack in El Dorado Hills, California. Enjoy the birthday. Happy 33rd birthday to James Holladnack. from Ohio but living in New York City and coming to the live show on April 8th. And Jake Garrett and his puppy gizmo are celebrating in a new job in Denver

Starting point is 00:21:29 with a Mai Tai if you know you know. A big shout out to Rajab Gulab, who's listening for four years, we appreciate it. And a shout out to Dr. Nemesh Patel who pointed out last week that when we mentioned Starwood, they're actually owned by Marriott. And finally, Nick and I are remembering Catherine O'Hara.

Starting point is 00:21:45 The mother of Kevin from Home Alone that Nick and I were quoting, she passed away last week and she was a legend. Always remember the Kevin. and the best in show. And Schitt's Creek. She was hysterical. This is Jack. Nick and I don't own any stocks that we mentioned, although we both own some U.S. dollar.

Starting point is 00:22:02 And we did mention the U.S. dollar. And our buddy Timmy is a buddy named Kevin.

The Best One Yet - 👋 “Meet the New Boss” — Kevin’s Fed. Super Bowl commercial dating. Brag Book job hack. +Secret Starbucks store

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