The Best One Yet - 🐑 “MUGGs” — Man Uggs are surging. Ozempic’s inventor’s dilemma. The Fed’s Debbie Downer. Reese’s + Oreos.

Episode Date: July 31, 2025

Uggs’ sales are surging thanks to men… And it’s not the only brand pulling off a gender pivot.Novo Nordisk stock is down 65%... because “inventing” something doesn’t mean “winning” it.The Federal Reserve made its interest rate decision… no change. We explain the Debbie Downer decision.Reese’s & Oreos just teamed up despite being rivals… Enemies with benefits$HSY $MDLZ $DECK $NVO $SPYWant more business storytelling from us? Check out the latest episode of our new weekly deepdive show: The untold origin story of… The Skateboard 🛹Subscribe to The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks to listen.TBOY Live Show Tickets to Chicago on sale NOW: https://www.axs.com/events/949346/the-best-one-yet-podcast-ticketsAbout Us: The daily pop-biz news show making today’s top stories your business. Formerly known as Robinhood Snacks, TBOY Lite is hosted by Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts NEWSLETTER:https://tboypod.com/newsletter SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Our 2nd show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Thursday, the new Friday, July 31st. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Yeties, it is the biggest week of news for Wall Street of the entire summer. Investors drove back from the Hamptons just for this week's market moving headlines.

So, since you're stuck in traffic for five hours on the LIE, Jack and I whipped up three fantastic stories for you. For our first story. Move over Crocs and Chaco. The ugly footwear de jour is Uggs, whose sales are surging right now thanks to men. We call them Mugs, male Ugs, and Ugs ain't the only brand pulling off a gender pivot. For our second story, it's the Fed. Our central bank had their biggest announcement of the year.

They're not cutting interest rates. So Jack and I will tell you why the Fed won't do what everyone in America wants it to do. And our third and final story is OZempic. The maker of OZEmpic saw its stock plummet. 30% this week. It's down 65% in one year. And it's all because inventing is different from winning. But yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Oh, fantastic mix of stories. Love the mix, Jack. We want to talk about a marketing collab like no marketing collab we've ever seen before. Because this is a collab between enemies? Here's the news. Reese is just partnered up with

its sugar-rich rival Oreos. We're talking the two biggest candy companies on Earth. just hooked up, baby. Hershey's and Mondalese, together they launched Reese's Oreo. Jack, what is this? Like a corporate hate flirt? It's enemies with benefits. This shocking Oreo Reese's marriage is actually two product launches, two unprecedented sweets. You got Reese's cups with an Oreo cookie inside, and then an Oreo cookie with a Reese's peanut butter inside. Honestly, sounds delicious. I've made this remix at the McDonald's McFlurry. I've been like, no, I want Oreos and Reese's Jack, it said they took them two years to come up with this. Feels like we could have whipped this up in 10 seconds. But it does come with two times as many calories per serving. But Jack, when we add it all up,

I mean, this is kind of like if Coke and Pepsi made a soda together. Or if Ford and Chevy whipped up a pickup together. Or it's like if Regina, George, and Katie launched a pink lipstick for the plastics. So why are they doing this? Because when the going gets tough, the tough get merging. Because grocery prices are up and snack sales are down. But together, this really, this really, Reese's Oreo Franken candy combo, it catches your attention, doesn't it?

And honestly, that's all that matters when you're fighting in the attention economy. So which rivals should collab next to get our attention? I mean, Jack,

if cheeseed and goldfish had a baby together? I'd serve that to my baby, Nick. Jack, can I get a Cookie Crisp Frosted Flakes collab for the Yeties out there? Frosty Kowoo!

Hitting Crists. Hit us up in the comments about which frenemies should collab next. And Jack, let's in our three stories. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm.

It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm. Jack, need to think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, Ugg's sales are a surgeon right now,

But it's not for the reason you'd expect. Men are buying Ugs at record levels for themselves. Ugs is playing the gender growth hack. All right, Jack, let's open up the closet over here. I got crocs, hoas, burk and stocks, maybe a couple pairs of chocos, or is it chocos? To be clear, you don't have any of those. No, I don't. I don't have any of them.

I know that you would never buy any of those brands for yourself. It's not my vibe. I'm sorry. I'll be clear. I have three out of the four things you just said. And that's why I love you, Jack. But the last few years, they have been beautiful for the ugly footwear industry. But the OG of controversially chunky shoes is Uggs.

Ugs. Invented by an Australian surfer back in the 1970s, ugs should be an episode of TBIY. Yeah, we got to do a whole episode of the best idea yet on these guys. Leather on the outside, sheepskin on the inside. No brand defined the female millennial foot like a five-inch-thick ug. Mocassons for millennial women. If there was a sweet 16, yeah, you were wearing them.

You know, I've never put my foot in an hug. Well, Jack, we're just playing the reverse Uno card today because I did have a pair in high school. Oh, you did? Okay, okay. Now, Uggs got acquired by Decker Outdoor Brands in 1995 for just $15 million. That's it, because it was before Paris Hilton and Oprah blew up the brand. It was a steal, because 30 years after that acquisition, Ugs is now Decker's best-selling brand. 51% of the company's revenues are now Ugs. Yeah, your sister does still have her first pair.

And here's the news. Ugg sales rose by 19% last quarter, bringing the 12-month sale amount to $2.5 billion. Jack, could you please sprinkle on some footy context for us over there? That's annual sales, half as big as crocs, but more than Birkenstocks, and 10 times greater than all birds. But the real news that Nick and I noticed, not how many ugs are being sold, but to whom ugs are being sold.

I get this. men are driving the Ugs uplift. Or as we call them, mugs. Male Ugs, mugs. Uggs sales to men are the biggest driver of growth at the company, and that's why Decker's stock is up 6% this week. Okay, Jack, what was the fascinating line we noticed in the Decker's earnings call? Ugg's sales to men rose 38% last quarter,

which is twice as fast as the Ugs brand overall. Ladies, stick your boots in the closet, because the Ugg-s-sweighed slipper for men is winning with dudes apparently in countries across the world. And it makes sense. I've never touched an Ugg, but isn't it just basically a bathrobe for your bare feet? Yeah, that's what it is, Jack. Sounds delicious. Also, Jack, we should point out, the top trending Ugg's shoe right now is called the Tasman shoe. Literally has the word man in the name. Now, interestingly, Jack and I should point out, Ugs dipped into the male gaze 14 years ago, right, Jack? Remember when

Tom Brady was a sponsored Ugsman? But Tom was associated with performance back then. So, was kind of considered lame that Tom was slipping into Uggs. But today, Post Malone and his 70 tattoos wear Ugs on stage while dropping beats before his majority male audience. And Timothy Shalameh wore man Ugs, Mugs, Courtside at a Knicks playoff game just this year. Courtside while courting a Kardashian. Mugs. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies buying Ugs?

We're in the middle of a testosterone twist. Yeties, the male Uggs-Mugs movement is actually bigger than Ugs. We've noticed a trend of brands pivoting to the other gender. Companies oriented towards one gender are realizing there's opportunity in the other half of the market. For example, Lulu Lemon's power of three growth plan, the key goal of their plan is to double their men's business. Shocker, Lulu Lemon realized men want stretchy pants too that are forgiving to your waistband. And Jack and I have seen this with Brotox as well. Botox brands pivoting their marketing explicitly to bros.

We tried to think of a predominantly male product that's now catering to women. We couldn't think of one. But if you do, drop a comment for us. Like Axe Body Spray, you're going to pull off a feminine flip over there or what? Let us know if you think of one. It's an overlooked but potentially huge growth hack that can potentially double your business. The testosterone twist or the feminine flip, explicitly targeting the other gender without alienating the first one. For our second story, the Federal Reserve was a Debbie Downer yesterday.

No change to interest rates. Trump is furious. Consumers are frustrated. But here's why the Fed won't give us what we all want. Jack, if we're going to talk about the Federal Reserve, can you please tell us about the FOMC? The Federal Open Market Committee, we learned about it in Econ 101 when we were 18 years old. It's the group of 12 voting members of our central bank who make the decision on the crucial interest rate. Like if you're using a Lord of the Rings visual here, it's the Council of Elron for the American Academy. I think it's the fellowship of the Rings.

So it's dwarves, hobbits, and wizards. Actually, it's nerds, analysts, and number wizards. And no surprise. Yesterday, as Wall Street expected, the Fed kept interest rates the same. The Fed did not lower interest rates. Although we should point out, there was one big surprise in this big Fed. announcement yesterday. The surprise was disagreement. Disagreement, because usually this legendary committee, Jack just described, is unanimous in their interest rate decision. But yesterday, for the first time since 1993, two members dissented from the decision. Now, we can't know for sure if that's based on policy disagreements or politics disagreements. Because Donald Trump has been

peer-pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates like no president ever has before. But either way, there's a little bit of drama going on over at the Fed. Real Housewives of monetary policy. But yet is Trump wants an interest rate cut. Wall Street wants an interest rate cut. Anyone who needs a loan or has a mortgage wants an interest rate cut. So we got to ask, why are we not getting an interest rate cut? The answer is one word, and you already know it, tariffs.

Tariffs. In fact, Fed chairman Jerry Powell said that, the word tariffs directly on the call. Because starting tomorrow, August 1,000, First, prices in the United States will rise because of new tariffs imposed by President Trump. Chairman Jerry Powell said he doesn't know if tariffs will cause a one-off price increase. Which wouldn't be too bad. Or sustained price increases. That could be really bad, like what we had during the pandemic.

But either way, our central bank is playing it safe. They won't lower interest rates until the trade war is more clear. Why? Well, because tariffs raise prices. That is inflation. And as we've told you for like three years, the only way to slay the dragon of inflation is high interest rates. So with the trade war about to heat up, potentially tomorrow, Chairman Jerry Powell ain't chopping interest rates anytime soon. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are everyone in this economy?

Inflation and housing are stuck in a catch-22. Yet he's the biggest driver of inflation? It's housing, the largest expense for most Americans. is getting more expensive the fastest. Rent and mortgage payments are painfully expensive across the country and there's no end in sight. But the Fed does have a solution to inflation, high interest rates, but that's making the cost of housing even higher. It's kind of like a vicious cycle. The GDP report showed yesterday that residential construction shrank in the second quarter. Builders aren't building more houses because building requires loans and interest rates are just too high to do that.

That's the catch. You see, we need inflation to come down, but that won't happen until we get more housing. But we won't get more housing unless interest rates come down. But Jack, we won't get interest rates to come down unless inflation comes down. And now we're right back where we started, I think. So inflation, it's actually a catch 33 because there's three factors all add odds with each other. Inflation, housing, and interest rates. Oh, by the way, let's throw in tariffs as well. There's another variable for you. It's incredibly complicated, but it boils down to this. inflation and housing are stuck in a catch-22.

Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, the inventor of OZemPEC and Wegovi and the booming business of weight loss shots has squandered its lead. Novo Nordisk invented the biggest product of the last half decade, but its stock has fallen 64%.

Yeties, Jack and I would love to have dinner at Noma, the number one restaurant in the world located in Denmark. Yeah, Copenhagen, right? That has nothing to do with this story other than Denmark. Because one year ago, Novo Nordisk was the pride of Denmark. The headlines about Denmark's pharmaceutical company were gorgeous. Yeah, why don't you read some of them to us, Jack? Here's one from one year ago.

Novo Nordisk invests $4 billion in the United States to expand its weight-loss drug production. Here's another one. Weight-loss drug Wagovi is approved officially in China. And here's a third one. How Novo Nordisk became Europe's most valuable. I heard OZemtic makes you taller than six feet and smell like a unicorn. Not a headline, just a rumor. I can't explain that one, but I can't explain how Novo Nordisk became Europe's most valuable company, Nick. Yes, you can, Jack. It's the Ozempic effect. Uh-huh. It's the Wagovi

wave. Because besties, both of those GLP1 drugs that Novo Nordisk developed, it also got FDA approval for first. Novo Nordisk was first in a breakthrough technology that could change the world. Ozempic, it's like AI but for your body. But the latest headline from the Financial Times, here it is, how Novo Nordisk lost its lead in the weight loss race. Because get this, after falling 30% this week, which was shocking, Novo Nordisk is now down 64% in the last year.

And they fired their CEO for the whole situation. So we have got to ask Geddes, how did Novo Nordisk blow its lead in GLP1 drugs like the 2008 New England Patriots. New York Giants reference? Oh yeah, Jack. They were winning and then they lost. We found a few key mistakes. The first one, production procrastination. Novo Nordisk did not ramp up production to meet the rising demand.

So there's a shortage of their GLP1 drugs for over a year. And according to the FDA rules, if a drug is in a shortage, then rivals are allowed to do knockoffs. And Hems and hers did exactly that. They offered a knockoff version of Ozempic and Ragovi. for 80% lower prices. OZempic dupes. The second issue, actually ironically related to prices, is prices.

Novo Nordisk simply set their price too high. One to $2,000 a month? That is almost the price of rent. It's actually five to ten times higher than the Hymns and hers version and two to four times higher than their rival Eli Lilly's version. And finally, Novo Nordisk failed to hook up with health insurance companies. And pricing, it would have been less of a concern if it had been covered by insurance. Reaching deals with health insurance companies is the unsexy blocking and tackling of the pharma industry.

All right, so Jack, I'm looking at the whiteboard here, procrastination, pricing, and insurance. That's why the creator of Ozempic ironically shrank, like their drug makes their patience. OZemPEC lost market weight, literally. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are watching OZempe? The inventor isn't always the winner. Yetis, there's a difference between a great inventor and a great entrepreneur. Novo Nordisk got FDA approval for its two GLP1 drugs two and four years sooner than Eli Lilly did. But Novo Nordic's management mistakes actually benefited their rivals.

First and foremost, Eli Lilly. We've seen this before, by the way. Napster invented digital music, but then Napster went bankrupt. Blackberry invented the smartphone, but its smartphone isn't even around anymore. You see, after the invention, it requires building a defensible business model, hiring lawyers, and executing faster than the competition. And sometimes, profits go to another business in the supply chain. Right. Like how PCs didn't really make profits, software did.

Ultimately, Yeti's creating something is different than commercializing it. Patterns don't necessarily equal profits. The inventor isn't always the profit taker. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the new Friday? Uggs sales to men are growing 38% year over year, double as fast as the Ugs brand overall. Mugs, the testosterone twist or the feminine flip, potentially doubling the business by pursuing the other gender. For our second story, the Fed defied President Trump's demands and chose not to cut interest

rates, setting tariff uncertainty as the reason why. Inflation and housing, they are stuck in a catch-22. I'm sorry, catch-33. And our third and final story. Novo Nordisk stock is down 65% from its all-time high because it blew its lead in GLP1 weight loss drugs. As Ozepic shows us, the inventor isn't always the winner. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, J.P. Morgan. Apparently, you are really enjoying the business of sexy deals these days.

First, J.P. Morgan is reportedly close to a new partnership to take over the Apple credit card from Goldman Sachs. And second, J.P. Morgan just partnered with Coinbase, even though there's no one Jamie Diamond hates more than Bitcoin Ben. The goal of the JP Morgan partnership with Coinbase, by the way, is just to cut out Plaid, the middleman and connect like crypto wallets with bank accounts directly. But either way, Jamie! And second, meta earnings were a profit to Palooza. They beat Wall Street's expectations by about 20%. Meta is now a $200 billion a year revenue business, making $80 billion a year in profits. We're not even going to calculate lifts because it's a lot more than Lyft. Meta, it's spending insanely on data centers and AI talent, but revenues are growing even faster.

Zuck's Mojo is, unfortunately, mojoier than ever. The stock jumped 10% after hours. And finally, a funny update about toy trucks. Specifically, those green ones, you probably got under a Christmas tree when you're a kid. The Hess Toy Truck. Well, earlier this month, Hess Oil was... sold to Chevron. But a key asset in the deal, the Hess toy trucks. One of the Hess family members, John Hess, carved out the toy truck business and said, I don't want to sell that to Chevron.

I want to keep that in the family. So get this, the toy truck tradition of Hess will continue on this holiday season despite this epic oil deal. Yeah, whether Chevron likes it or not. Now time for the best fact, yeah, this one sent in by Esther Rum from Zug, Switzerland. celebrating the 10th birthday of Ethereum, the number two crypto. So we have to ask, how did Ethereum get its name 10 years ago? Here's how. Vitalik Boudarin, the creator of Ethereum, found the name Ethereum while browsing Wikipedia for sci-fi words.

That's right. He just liked the name Ethereum because it sounded futuristic and included the word ether. Which is a nod to the invisible substance once believed to fill space. Or as Yoda would call it, the force. Yeties, you look fantastic today. And if there was one story you loved most of all, send it to your favorite bestie today. Send your favorite story to your favorite bestie. Or in the spirit of Reese's and Oreo, send it to your biggest enemy today.

That would be a bold move. Yeah, H-Y-H-T-B-O-Y. And they're going to block you, but it's worth it. Nick and I, we'll see it tomorrow. Have you heard the best one yet? If you know, you know. And before we go, a happy twilight. 29th birthday to Chase hanging out in Cleveland, Ohio, the Rome on the Lake.

And congratulations to Donovan Baltic, who just monetized their YouTube channel down in Lakeland, Florida. And a shout out to Yeti's Nina and Golby, who Jack, I just ran into today. They love the best idea yet, and they happen to be the best psychiatrist and best executive coach in the Bay Area. Are they available? Because I can use both of those things. We got some strategy ideas. We've got to run by you guys. Thanks so much for being besties. To anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-Boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack.

I own stock of Crocs and Birkenstocks. Nick own stock and Lulu Lemon. We both own stock in Apple. And Nick owns some Ethereum. Ethereum named afterl.