The Best One Yet - 👁️ “Nvidia’s watch party” — A.I.'s Biggest Day. Mister Softee’s soft-serve biz. Ozempic’s Direct-To-Tummy.

Episode Date: August 29, 2024

Nvidia just announced earnings that were so big, people hosted parties… but the results were a Rorschach Test for Wall Street.Mister Softee’s ice cream trucks have shrank in number by two thirds�� because of competition, climate change, and street corners.Ozempic has a new strategy: Direct-To-Consumer… Big Pharma is cutting out the pharmacy.Plus, Google Searches for “How to sleep” just hit a record high… it’s the worst sleep week of the year.$NVDA $NVO $SPY—-----------------------------------------------------GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ —----------------------------------------------------- Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Thursday, the new Friday, August 29th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. How many meetings have we had today, Jack? I've seen a lot of you today, man.

You're looking great, by the way. I've seen you too much, dude. We just got back from two weeks of a vacation, and there was a serious pent-up demand for meetings. Yeah, you know, it's not a good sign, Jack, when you have to end a meeting by saying, we have to go. We have another meeting. That happened like six times in the past 48 hours.

The best thing is when we say we got to go, we got to record the pod. So Jack, three stories for today's tea boy. What do we got on the show? For our first story, InVidia, we just announced earnings that were so big. So big. People hosted watch parties. So Jack and I poured ourselves in a groney for the most important earnings report of the year. For our second story, it's never been harder to find a Mr. Softie ice cream truck.

The decline of Mr. Softie Softserve ice cream tells us. more about our streets than it does about our sprinkles. And our third and final story is the newest innovation from Ozemic. It's not about cutting weight. It's not about cutting out the middleman. Boom, Big Pharma is cutting out the pharmacy. D to C, OZembeck. Warby Parker of Wangabee.

If I have one more meeting for that, dude, I'm just going to ghost it. Hey, let's cancel our 215. But yet is, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Fantastic mix of stories. Love the mix today, Jack. Yadis, we know how you're feeling today. Vesties, you are cranky, you are tired, and you are sleepy. And we know because this is the worst week of the year for sleep.

This is the worst week of... Get this, Yeties. We have dated to prove it. We do. Google searches for how to fall asleep fast doubled this past Monday. That's right. Twice as many people were up at 2 a.m. on Sunday night struggling to go to sleep. And it's not a case of Sunday Scaries.

No, it's not. It was a case of back-to-school can't sleepies. In fact, Jack and I followed the data even further, and this happens every year around this same time. Yep, the end of August. It's the biggest month for Googling of the word insomnia. In fact, early September is when Googles for melatonin typically peak. Because you're transitioning from beach time to reality time. You're either going back to work post-vacay, or you're going back to school post-breakay.

And so you can't. sleep past 9 a.m. like it's 4th of July weekend anymore. But Jack, you and I should whip up our own personal sleep hack. What is it, man? Yeah, they're not that good, but a pitch darkness in your bedroom. That always works. I was just at Jack's house, and he duct tapes the curtains in some rooms, don't you, Jack? I close the door, and I put little black pieces of electrical tape over any blue light submitting from my electronics. Oh, and if that doesn't work, just rub some magnesium onto your eyelids, your toes, your body. I mean, we're not doctors, but... And if that doesn't work, Yeah, grab a frying pan, hit yourself over the head. Always does the trick.

Yeties, congratulations. You're already out of bed. And if Jack and I know one thing about this podcast, it's going to keep you awake. Let's turn our three stories, baby. Let's hit. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more.

So just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. Our first story. The most important earnings report of the year just happened. And that company was Nvidia. The computer chip stock was a referendum on the entire AI and even the entire tech industry. Or was it, Jack?

Yetis, when it comes to the Oscars, you get together for a watch party. For a Super Bowl, of course, you watch at a watch party. But Jack, for Nvidia's quarterly corporate earnings report? A watch party. We've never seen this before, Yeties, but Wall Streeters just organized a watch party for a corporate earnings call. Jack and I literally worked at banks for years, and no one ever invited us to a watch party for an earnings report. Wall Streeters rented out storehouse bar in the Flatiron District of New York City for an unofficial watch party of Invidia's second quarterly earnings. Yeah, they showed up to the bar, they were drinking beer, eating wings, and listening to the CFO's commentary on the third quarter outlook.

Sounds like a fun time. Because while the market is up 27% over the last 12 months, it's all largely thanks to Nvidia. One company, Nvidia, their stock is up 167% in the past year. and 3,000% in the past decade. NVIDIA is a whale in the stock market. They're the second most valuable company in the world with a valuation of $3 trillion. In fact, Nvidia is so big, Jack.

Could you just sprinkle on a little more context for us, please? They make up 7% of the entire S&P 500. So when NVIDIA shakes its tail, the entire ocean of stocks has some waves. Now you ended up working out pretty well with your wealth. I thought you were going to say splash. Honestly, that would have worked too. Okay, we'll work on it.

But in the meantime, Jack, we don't want to withhold the information any longer. Let's grab a beer, grab a bourbon, and talk about these hefty Nvidia earnings, my friend. Invidia just announced that they sell $300 million worth of AI chips every single day. That's insane, but Jack, we should get a little more specific. Sales more than doubled in the second quarter as profits more than doubled, too. Yadis, Nvidia, is pulling in $15 billion in quarterly profit, which is more than Amazon's, and $30 billion in quarterly sales. And that calculates to a wild 50% profit margin.

That's insane, but there's also a little fun fact we noticed about NVIDIA. NVIDIA made $3 billion in their video game console division. Yeah, yeah, selling chips to companies like Nintendo. Turns out Nintendo is actually a top client of NVIDIA. But the vast majority of NVIDIA's business today is AI and Data Center chips. That's right, because 87% of NVIDIA's. revenue actually came from that single AI-related division. Warehouses for computing AI that powers that chat bot you just asked a question too.

So, Basties, put down that bourbon for a second. Let's add this up. The revenue, the profits, the outlook, every number we just mentioned about NVIDIA was a huge number that beat analyst expectations. Which is why it was so puzzling to see NVIDIA stock fall after the earnings report. In fact, Jack and I are recording right now after the earnings and the stock is gyrating. It's up. down, no one really seems... It ended up down 4% as of this recording, but Wall Street doesn't seem to know what to think about it. But Jack and I seem to know what to think about it.

So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Nvidia? Invidia's earnings were a Rorschach test. Everyone has their own interpretation. Ah, the Rorschach test, the Inkblot test. It's a psychological experiment. You've probably seen it in movies or on TV, or maybe you've done one. Nothing wrong with that. What do you see here, Bob?

The person is shown a piece of paper with some black blobs on it, and you're supposed to describe what you see. There's no wrong answer. No. Everyone has their own interpretation. Is it a butterfly or is it my mother? Well, the same thing happened with how investors interpreted NVIDIA's earnings yesterday. Exactly.

On the one hand, you could interpret them as AI is booming right now. The biggest winner of AI is doing better than ever because everyone wants those AI chips. But on the other hand, you could interpret NVIDI. earnings as proof of an AI bubble. If you think tech companies are overspending on AI chips, well, Nvidia sold more AI chips than anyone could have imagined last quarter. So, Bessis, you can look at Nvidia's numbers and walk away with either one of those perspectives. You could think the AI is booming or you could think the AI is a bubble. So Nvidia's results, they were big, but they were also ambiguous. They didn't give us a clear and decisive answer

on what's happening in this AI frenzy. Jack and I aren't going to BS you with some hot take or some random interpretation. These earnings were a war shock test. You can interpret them however you see fit. They're an AI bubble or they're a butterfly. For our second story, we just got some wild data on the soft serve ice cream truck pioneer Mr. Softie. Ice cream trucks are a disappearing breed and it actually reflects a change to American neighborhoods. Now Jack, let's jump in, T-Boyst straight to the numbers here. Mr. Softie, founded by two brothers of brotherly love down in Philadelphia in 1956, baby. They pretty much invented the food truck.

Oh, now you have seen the Mr. Softie food truck, haven't you? Big old white truck driving down the street. You see that cone head logo, and you're only thinking yourself, rainbow sprinkles or chocolate sprinkles. Rainbow sprinkles every time. They taste like Lisa Frank's stickers. Oh, by the way, the menu, it's six foot tall.

Is it? I feel like when I was a kid, it was like bigger than me. Weirdly specific. But yet is, if you have not seen the Mr. Softie ice cream truck, you've definitely heard the Mr. Softie Ice Cream truck. Because the truck lets you know that they're there with the music. Yeah, the jingle. It's actually been played an estimated 100 million times, making it arguably the most played

song in history by our calculations. Right behind the Delta customer service, you're on hold. Please wait. It's the anthem of the summer. It's the Vivaldi of Vanilla. Wait, Jack. Oh, wait. There it is.

Oh. There it is. There it is. Yeah, here they come. Here they come. You know, Nick, Alex and I, we heard it last week. We ran outside with the boys, but by the time we got out there, the truck had gone away. I wish they would slow down. That's actually a real impediment to their sales forecast, Jack.

If the drivers go too fast, the sales go down. They should cut their speed by half. But yet is, Jack and I got curious. We jumped in T-boy style. And the one product at Mr. Softie is the core product at Mr. Softie. Soft Serve Ice Cream. The only question is whether you get in a customer. cup, a cone, or in a milkshake. But this is what we found fascinating. The secret recipe isn't the

hot fudge. It's the hot financials of soft serve ice cream. Soft serve ice cream is very profitable because there's very few ingredients involved. So it's lower costs. There's only two flavors we're talking about. So it's easy logistics. And it's really fast and easy to serve. So more sales volume add it all up. And this is a profit puppy product, soft serve. For hard ice cream, you have to hire somebody with like giant forearms to scoop with that giant. Scoopold. That's why Popeye spent so much time working at Hagen-Daz, Jack. But not for Mr. Softie. But Yetis, before you scream for Ice Cream, Jack and I should point out the problem going on for Mr. Softie. Mr. Softie is melting away. Two-thirds of Mr. Softie's trucks nationwide have disappeared.

And get this, besties. Back in the 1960s, two thousand Mr. Softie trucks operated by Mr. Softie franchisees crossed 38 different states. But today, there's only 600 left. So why is Mr. Softie going soft on us? Well, one issue that we noticed is actually a simple business force, competition. Bougie ice cream is taken over your block. Yeah, one second, Van Lewin is now serving a caramel caviar gelato. I don't know, I'll pay $40 for a scoop of that, Jack. But another reason Mr. Softie is struggling is actually quite counterintuitive.

It turns out Yeties that it's become ironically too hot to eat ice cream. Because of climate change, there's way more very very very very. Very hot days we're experiencing in the summer. Yeah, and when it is really hot outside, you don't want ice cream because it's going to melt faster than you can eat that thing up. If it's 100 degrees and 200% humidity, you're not outside having fun at the ice cream truck. You're inside chilling in the air conditioning. Jack, there's actually a sweet spot for ice cream literally, and it's 87 degrees. Anything over 90 and you're kind of like, eh, this is a little dairy-ish.

Well, you're just not outside, so you don't even see the ice cream truck coming. And that double cone becomes double mess. But besties, there is actually one final issue that isn't competition and isn't climate that's really hurting Mr. Softie. It's kids and street corners. So, Jack, let's take one vanilla and one chocolate because those are the only options. Well, you can get a twist. If you know, you know. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Mr. Softie?

Kids aren't playing in the streets anymore. That affects Mr. Softie and Mr. Parent too. So, Yeties, the whole idea of Mr. Softie was that it would drive around encounter. customers and go to where the customer is. That was the business model. It depended on there being kids in the streets playing. But that demographic of kids in the streets playing, it's disappeared. Yeah, the average American family now has one fewer kid than they did 50 years ago, and they're not letting that kid hang out on the corner like they used to. Because of iPads and like kids having phones and we can track them, we're making kids like less free. They can't go outside and

just play in the streets anymore. In fact, that social shift in raising kids has had negative impacts on parents and neighbors too. Really interesting article from the Atlantic last month. Because our kids aren't mingling in the streets like they used to, neighbors know each other much less than before. Yeah, it's actually like a broader economic issue. You're not getting to know people in the way you used to, and that's having a lot of consequences. Because your kid isn't playing with your neighbor's kid in the street anymore. So, Basties, Mr. Softie's sales drop, it's actually a reflection of something much bigger. Kids aren't playing in the streets anymore. It's a lot of, affects Mr. Softie and Ms. Parent too.

Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story. You know, now that we've played that Mr. Softie jingle, I just can't get it out of my head, Jack. It's kind of like the macarena of food jingles. You don't forget it. Anyway, for our third and final story, Americans are so ravenous for OZEPIC

that Big Pharma is changing their entire business model. We're about to get direct-to-consumer Weggivvy weight loss websites. Let me say that again. Direct consumer Wegavy weight loss drug websites. All right, Jack, how about we kick off this story

with a little hero stat? What do we got, man? One out of five of your parents and their friends are taking those miracle weight loss drugs. That's right. Osepik, Wegave and Zepbound, the GLP1 weight loss drugs

that make you not hungry ASAP. They chemically eliminate your appetite. And according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 31 million Americans are taking these weight-loss drugs right now. Only 7% of American Gen Z is taking these GLP 1 drugs. That's it. But 19% of older folks age 50 to 64. If you're Gen Z, you're not on it, but your Uncle Bob is at the table, and he's probably on it right now.

And these drugs are so popular, there's a perpetual shortage of that. You can't get a Pink Stanley mug right now, and you can't get a GLP weight-loss drug right now. But one drug maker who really wants to profit off these drugs... He's trying to change that. They're trying to kill the shortage. Eli Lilly is now selling their weight loss drugs in vials of liquid, not just the typical injectable pens. You basically have to buy like a six-pack of injectable pens right now,

but now you can buy just a big bottle and use your own syringe is the deal. It's easier to manufacture those bottles, so the price is now 40% lower. Eli Lilly's weight loss drug is basically on sale. It's just B.I.O. Syringe. But here's the news. Eddies, and this is bigger news. Pharmaceutical companies are borrowing a strategy from Casper, from all birds, and from Glacier.

That's right. Yeties, just like the top millennial brands of the last decade, these pharmaceutical companies are going direct-to-consumer for the first time ever. In January, Eli Lilly, a big pharmaceutical company, launched something unheard of, a direct-to-consumer website for pharmaceuticals. Jack, could we get a translation on that direct-to-consumer lingo? Eli Lilly tried to cut out the middleman and provide drugs directly to patients at a lower price. And one of the middleman who happens to be getting cut out of that equation?

Pharmacies. So Walgreens stock fell 9% on this news this week. And then on Tuesday, Besties, Pfizer launched the same exact thing. They call it Pfizer for all. It's Pfizer's direct-to-consumer drug website. So what we're saying here is that what Warby Parker did for glasses? Big Pharma is now doing for drugs. And their ability to go direct-to-consumer is a big reason that Eli Lilly is dropping the price by 40%. Jack, it's only a matter of time before Johnson and Johnson is plastering the subway with direct-to-consumer Advil ads. You know, it's going to be everywhere.

Use promo code. I feel sick. I actually do think they're going to do Instagram ads. No, that was part of the story. They're going to do social media ads to attract you to their website. Mattress, mattress, mattress. But Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies in health care? OZemPEC isn't just disrupting weight loss.

It's disrupting health care. Now, yannies, we've talked a lot about the OZMPIC effect. Weight loss drugs have changed more than just the diet and the fitness industry lately. Ripple effects from OZMPIC and Wegevee, they can be seen everywhere in the economy. This drug is so wild, it's causing snack sales to fall. It's causing fashion sales to rise. Even United Airlines is projected to save 80 million bucks a year in fuel costs. if passengers are lighter thanks to OZempe. All of that was wild, but now we're seeing the

unthinkable. And the unthinkable is that the U.S. healthcare system is now getting impacted. Yeties, the American health care system. We've all been through it. It's infamously complex and inefficient. Operator. But it's so profitable to the players in the healthcare industry. Representative! But now, the demand for GLP drugs is so high and the profit potential is so big that big pharma is disrupting the status quo with new direct-to-consumer websites. Besties, Ozempic, it isn't just disrupting diet and it isn't just disrupting fitness right now. It's disrupting the entire healthcare industry. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the new Friday?

NVIDIA showed another quarter of incredible growth as tech companies buy up their AI chips, but the stock fell. Because NVIDIA's earnings were really a Rorschach inkblot test. Everyone has their own interpretation. For our second story, Mr. Softie only has 600 trucks left, down from 2000 at its peak. Mr. Softie is melting thanks to competition, climate change, and fewer kids playing on the corner. And our third and final story is Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and the other big pharma companies. They're launching direct-to-consumer drug websites.

Oh, that big, it's not just disrupting the diet and fitness industries, it's disrupting the entire American healthcare system. But Yetis, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. Abercrombie popped another caller. They announced knockout earnings again, but the stock still fell. Sales rose by 21% in the latest corner, continuing Abercrombie's amazing comeback. But the CEO of Abercrombie cited increasingly uncertain environments in business. Wall Street hates those kinds of ominous and ambiguous comments.

So they sold the stock at this high. They pooped the party. They pooped the party. And second, Lego is how to do it. more fun than ever right now. Lego profits jumped 26% over the last half year. The rest of the toy industry is struggling because of inflation, but Lego keeps selling and selling. Oh, and the top toy last quarter? It was a Fortnite collaboration video game. A Lego video game reached 83 million people thanks to our buddies over at Fortnite. And finally, the Paralympic Games opened in Paris with

nearly 5,000 athletes participating. The Paralympic Games. They were founded in 1948 after World War They were created for war veterans, for injured war vets to be able to keep on competing in an Olympic-style event. And the most decorated winner of all time is the American swimmer Trisha Zorn, who won 55 Paralympic medals while being visually impaired. Not too shabby. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in with perfect timing from Jason Erman from lovely Houston, Texas. Why is NVIDIA called NVIDIA? It starts with the letter N, by the way, not the letter I.

It's kind of confusing and hard to read. It can get confused. If you were hanging out at one of these Nvidia watch parties, this would have been a good discussion point. You should share it with your Yetis today. Turns out there's a Latin word, invidia, which means envy.

And the abbreviation NVE stands for next version. Which the techies love the next version of their product. So envy is closely connected with vision because we envy the things we see. And that's why Nvidia's logo is an eyeball. Green eyeball because it's green with envy. Also, invidia

kind of sounds like video. Yes? Nick, Invidia's core business at the beginning was videographic chips. Jack, at this pace, I feel like you're going to tell me that invidia is my father. I think Jensen Huang created the Illuminati, whose favorite word

is invidia. But seriously, Invidia, it comes from the Greek for envy and the envy comes from next version. Jack, you are looking fantastic over there, Although, wait, one second. Oh, man. Jack, the truck's back.

They came back for you. Well, get out there quick, because he's going to be gone before you know. One sec, one sec, one sec. I got, I got, I got it. Do you want vanilla? Do you want chocolate or you want a swirl, Jack? What do you want? Swirl.

They're out of swirl. I'm sorry, you're out of swirl. You can't be out of swirl. You're either out of chocolate or you're out of vanilla. I think you're overthinking it, Jack. He said they got banana boats. That's all they got right now. Do you want one?

I think that's a type of underwear. Jack wants two banana boats and one swirl. We better be expensive these ice creams. It's a write-off. Get us, click to follow us. It's every day, and Jack and I, we'll see you tomorrow. No, swar! And before we go, a happy 43rd birthday to Brian Chesky,

who's probably celebrating in an Airbnb. Happy 27th birthday in Netflix, who's probably celebrating Netflixing and chilling. And Mike Robinson down in Minneapolis is celebrating a 40th birthday down in Vegas, baby. Happy birthday to Beth Hagee in Columbus, Ohio, an amazing coworker and a fantastic, friend. And X-teen from lovely Los Angeles is staying on point in those ballet shoes. And to anyone

else who celebrates something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the Wings. This is Jack. I own stock of Abercrombie and Fitch, and Nick and I both own ETFs at the S&P 500. A Rorschach test, an inkblot test, is a psychological experiment you probably have seen on TV or in the movies or maybe you've taken one. I hope not. Actually, I don't think it's a sign there's anything wrong with you. Depends what you see.