The Best One Yet - 🌎 “Pan-cession” — Global recession risk. Chipotle’s tariff-free avocado. Clocking out at 4:39pm.

Episode Date: April 7, 2025

Stocks fell 10% Thurs/Fri, now this trade war could trigger a global recession… a “Pan-cession.”Chipotle went on a 7-year journey to find a tariff-free avo… but it doesn’t exist.4 o’clock is the new 5 o’clock… You now leave work 42 minutes earlier, but with one big catch.Plus, the hottest new fashion product?... It’s the Nvidia CEO’s leather jacket.$SPY $NDAQ $CMGWant more business storytelling from us? Check out the latest episode of our new weekly deepdive show: The untold origin story of… 📱iPhone: The Device Steve Jobs Didn’t Want to Build. Subscribe to The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks to listen.“The Best Idea Yet”: The untold origin stories of the products you’re obsessed with — From the McDonald’s Happy Meal to Birkenstock’s sandal to Nintendo’s Susper Mario Brothers to Sriracha. New 45-minute episodes drop weekly.—-----------------------------------------------------Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. Welcome back. It is Monday, April 7th. And today's part is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Jack, welcome back. How's your weekend, by the way? You're looking at the time. I tried to forget what happened on Friday. Breaking news, Jack. The White House just announced new tariffs on Atlantis, the lost undersea civilization of Atlantis. Yet he's all joking aside, last week was the worst week for markets in five years. Poseidon, the Greek god of the ocean, has now put retaliatory tariffs on America. Nick, I said all jokes aside, we'll be here to cover all the news as long as this crisis is happening. The Yetis don't panic. We have seen and experienced downturns before. Plus, we've got three fantastic stories ready today. Even if Atlantis taxes our seafood. Jack, three fantastic stories for the show. What do we got on the pod? For our first story, the trade war just caused the worst week for the global stock market since the the pandemic. Everyone is wondering about a recession, but we're wondering about a pan session.

For our second story, Chipotle is actually the biggest buyers of avocados in America. They purchased one out of 20 avos that Americans eat. And Chipotle just finished a seven-year quest for a tariff-free avocado. And our third and final story, Americans now leave work 42 minutes earlier than they used to. We see you. 4.39 p.m. is now the magic number. But there is one little catch to you leave and work early, and it's explained by peanut butter. But yet,ies, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. What a mix of stories today. Love the mix, Jeff.

The hottest new fashion item right now, what is it, Nick? Jack, it's not a handbag, it's not a sundress, and it ain't a cute top either. It's a leather jacket. Specifically, a tech CEO's leather jacket. The leather jacket worn by Jensen Huang is now its own fashion category. It's like the Earl of Cardigan got a shirt named after him. Well, the CEO of NVIDIA now has a jacket named after him. Steve Jobs had his turtleneck, Zuckerberg had his hoodie.

But Jensen only wears one thing, a black leather jacket. In fact, demand for the Jensen jacket is higher than demand for NVIDIA chips these days. What proof? Nick and I found 21 different retailers who now sell the Jensen jacket. Jack Victoria now sells a Jensen jacket for $97. Wilson sells a Jensen jacket for $92. The product description literally says, be the boss of the fashion world.

Now we should point out, Jensen may be the wealthiest guy who wears this leather jacket. As the largest shareholder of a $2 trillion Nvidia company, Jensen is worth $97 billion. But he's not the first noteworthy person

to rock a black leather jacket. No, let's sprinkle on some context, Jack. I believe Arnold Schwarzenegger in Terminator. Marlon Brando in On the Waterfront. And Jack, how about, hey, the Fonz. Arthur Fonseretti basically invented the black leather jacket. So best, he's added all up, and we're calling the Jensen Leather Jacket Crays nerd core.

If you can't afford inviative chips, if you can't afford a video stock, you may be able to afford in video fashion. Well, let us know if you see a dupe out there. Jack, let's hear our three stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dawn. They had an idea that cost a culture. 50%. That's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go.

We can't wait no more. So just start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. Our first story. Last time stocks fell so much, so fast was the pandemic. We may be entering a global recession. Because of the trade war, we may be entering a pan session. Pan session.

But yet, he's, in order to understand a pan session, let's dial back the clocks to 1930, when President Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley tariff act in America. With those tariffs, he was trying to protect U.S. industry. Instead, he started the Great Depression. Well, 95 years later, that's kind of how things felt on Wall Street last week, didn't they, man? Trump's Liberation Day sent stocks into a bare market. Okay, let's talk numbers here, Jack.

The S&P 500 is now down 17% from its February highs. The tech-heavy NASDAQ is in bare territory. It's down 22% from its February highs. Jack and I've been searching for green in the stock market charts. No one was spared, apparently, except for McDonald's stock, which was up. Bitcoin is now in a bare market down 21% as of this recording. How's your portfolio, Greg? Gone to quite gone. Just on Thursday and Friday, stocks fell by 10%. It was brutal.

Well, Basties, we've been following all this with you every day. And on Thursday's show, we said that this was the nuclear bomb of the trade war. On Friday's show, we covered the fallout by showing you the iPhone tax. And today, we're going to look at the international response to everything that's been happening. Because all signs point to a global recession coming, or as we call it, a pancession. Now, yeties, here's the situation right now. If President Trump dropped a tariff bomb on the trade war last week, then the world responded by tariff bombing right back.

Investors hoped for de-escalation, negotiation, maybe some kind of a trade war truce last week, but instead they got the opposite. Jack, let's go across the map. China retaliated tit-for-tat on Friday with a new tariff on Made in America Goods. France's president urged French companies not to invest in the United States to not give Trump what he wants. New Orangina factory in Ohio? Not possible. The European Union is now discussing the first ever digital tariff, basically a tax on any American tech services Europeans use.

You want to use Google Cloud over in Belgium? Well, you're going to have to pay 20% more for the honor to do so. And finally, Canada's outspoken new prime minister said, the 80-year period of the United States being the economic leader of the world is over. Now, besties, it is possible that all-out trade war could have been averted over the weekend if the foreign leaders had caved. But they didn't. They stood up to Trump's aggression instead and tariff bombed him right back. In fact, now J.P. Morgan Chase thinks the chances of a global recession are up to 60% likely. A pan session. Now, these the last two pan sessions we've experienced

were caused by first a financial crisis. That was in 2008. And then a health crisis. In 2020. But this one, this pen session, this would have been caused by a political crisis. Now, J.P. Morgan did hedge that the global recession would only come if Trump's trade policies are sustained.

So, Jack, like, technically, all of this could be resolved by a single press conference that Trump could hold in the Rose Garden canceling all the tariffs. But in the meantime, your buddy at brunch may be going recession brunette. Check that hair color over there, Yeti's. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are everyone in America? The American stock market depends on Berlin, Bangkok, and Buenos Aires. We'll explain.

Yetis, here's a hero stat that might shock you. For the 500 companies in the S&P 500, 40% of their revenues come from abroad. The S&P 500 is the stock market index of the 500 biggest public companies in America and 40% of their sales happening countries that aren't America. That's a lot of sales, and all these sales are now at risk in two major ways. Jack, what's the first one? First, countries are tariffing products that are made in the United States. Harley Davidson's, they're now double the price over in Europe because of these new tariffs. Second, anti-U.S. sentiment is all over the world right now, resulting in boycotts of major U.S. brands. Levi's jeans,

they are iconically American on Bruce Springsteen's, but the perfect. way for Canadians to protest. Every company in the world, it's not just American companies, every company is vulnerable to shrinking sales right now because we might be going into a pan session. But American companies could be hit double hard from a pan session. Because 40% of our sales happen overseas. 40%. And that's why the stock market tanked so hard last week. For our second story, back in 2018, Chipotle embarked on a seven-year journey to find the tariff-free avocado. Let's look closely at how Chipotle fared, because every American business faces the exact same dilemma right now. Free avocado. Yeah, it is in President Trump's first term.

He started to dabbling with this whole tariff idea. And that's when Chipotle realized, wow, we are vulnerable. Chipotle freaked out because get this, Chipotle buys 5% of all avocados American eat. That's one out of every 20 avocados. We are consuming. them at Chipotle. And 90% of America's avocados are imported from Mexico. Okay, and this is why Chipotle is extra freaking out, because apparently we've got a real big appetite for guac, bigger than you realized. Half of all orders at Chipotle add guacamole. Half of them. And that means Chipotle has to source 132 million pounds of avocados every year. So that's why back in 2018, when President Trump said, we buy too much stuff from Mexico, Chipotle issued a code red. Or is it code green?

Asia Code Red. Let's go with Code Red, Jack. That's when Chipotle began an expedition to El Dorado. A quest to a mythical world looking not for gold, but looking for the elusive tariff-free avocado. They were trying to diversify for Mexican avocados. Yeah, that's what they were trying to do. And they set up a team to identify six countries near the equator that might be able to support avocado trees year around. Chipotle was kind of like avocado missionaries, right? Jack, kind of going out there preaching the good word of the avocado.

They literally went to South America and started evangelizing the avocado in places like Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Ecuador. Chipoli created like an entire avocado diaspora, like across the equator. It's unreal. But one problem. Americans are avocado snods, it turns out. Yeah, besties, we jumped in T-Boy style. It turns out there are over 50 types of avocado in the world, but we Americans only like one type and what is it jack? We only eat the haz avocado. That's the one with more oil, more flavor. it's the green that we expect an avocado to look like. It looks good on Instagram.

On the other hand, Jack, you know, I used to do some work down in Peru. They've got these huge avocados. It's like the size of your head. No, an avocado that big would be off-putting. Yeah, yeah. Well, it's bigger. It's got less oil. It's lighter.

It's not an appealing avocado for Americans. So Chipotle, an American, like, fast, casual restaurant chain, dedicated research and development people, plus weather experts to figure out how can Peru grow an avocado, a Haas style, just like Mexico. Add it all up, and I gotta know, how did Chipotle's mission work? Pretty well.

Turns out, now in Peru and Colombia, they can grow American preferred varieties of avocados. Oh, my gosh. Thanks to Chipotle. Thanks to the seven-year quest for the mythical tariff-free avocado. Plus, Chipotle is also the buyer of every avocado that California can grow. Apparently, Chipotle is the biggest bidder of Made in America Avocados. Now, Jack, I love this tall tale we're telling right now, but I got to pause the pod for a second.

After everything we just said about the tariff-free avocado that Chipotle discovered, why is their stock down 10% in the last week 20% so far this year? Because of our takeaway. Oh, yeah. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Chipotle? Chipotle is a case study. Made in America isn't always possible. So, Yeties, after this seven-year journey for the tariff-free avocado, was it a success?

Well, Chipotle does still depend on foreign trade for all their avocados. Five years ago, 85% of Chipotle's avocados were from Mexico. Today, still half are imported from Mexico. So that's progress, but it's not perfect, and it's still kind of a problem. It's a problem because Trump's 25% Mexico tariffs will cost tens of millions of dollars in extra costs every year for Chipotle. And as of last week, Peru and Colombia also just got hit with 10% tariffs, and Chipotle, they didn't expect that seven years ago.

when they began their quest. Their whole missionary expedition to South America was kind of a waste. Well, last month, Chipotle pledged to not pass on the cost to the consumer. Your guac will still be extra, but it won't be extra, extra. But if these tariffs last a long time, they might reconsider on that. After all, their stock is down 20% this year and 10% just Thursday and Friday. Now, Trump says that he wants overseas production to come to the United States, and in some cases, that is possible.

In other cases, it's simply not possible. And those cases are more than you might realize. So it turns out the tariff-free avocado was like the mythical golden city of El Dorado itself. It just didn't exist. Chipotle is a case, Teddy. Made in America isn't always possible. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story to kick off the week.

Four o'clock is the new five o'clock, baby. You're leaving work 42 minutes earlier than you used to. But there is one catch to the new American work week. It's explained with a peanut butter metaphor. Yeah, it's explained by Skippies. Yeah, Jack. So, funny thing, Vasies, Jack and I were talking about the story and, like, remember every movie from the 1980s? Like, Jack, there'd be a steel mill who would, like, blow a whistle at 5 p.m.

And that was the signal that works done. The boss says work is done at 5 o'clock. Jimmy Buffett says it's 5 o'clock somewhere. Even Dolly Parton talks about her 9 to 5. 5.5 has always been the number that work ends at 5, 5. don't round up, don't round down. But the new magic number is actually 4.39 p.m. More specifically, that is, in 2022, the average American clocked out of work at 5.21 p.m.

But in 2024, it's 42 minutes earlier. That's right. The average American workday now ends at 4.39 p.m. That is 42 minutes earlier than just a couple years ago. And that's all according to a software company that tracked 200,000 employees across about a thousand companies. And nothing creepy about that. we all probably accidentally opted in. But 42 minutes, over five work week days?

That's three and a half hours a week that you now have you time. Yeah, it is the wildest part about this entire story, though. What is it, Jack? Even though we're clocking out early, we are getting more work done. That's right. The same software company discovered that while hours of work are down, productivity is up, baby. Get this guy raised.

Now, the software company measures productivity based on computer activity. I don't know. I guess key strokes and mouse movement is correlated with work done. But still, we repeat, we are now pumping out 2% more work in 42 fewer minutes. Tell Frank from finance to get off your back, right? Yeah, you got him that TPS report like three hours early. Carolyn accounting left work at 439 for Pilates, but she already finished the presentation. And the best part about this, the same tracking software also revealed a change in how you're getting all that work done so productively.

The typical worker gets work done in sprints. You're now sprinting. We're all doing these 24 minutes spurts of energy to get stuff done. We're pumping out the PowerPoint in 24 minutes and then surreptitiously checking our social media feeds. So besties, add it all up and you're leaving work 42 minutes earlier on a Tuesday than you used to. And you're getting more done? There's actually a catch, Nick. Yeah, there is one catch.

Although I'm very excited for this knit sweater. You're going to get me, Jack. I'm very pro. Hey, where's my yak sweater, bro? Tariffs, man, trade war, man. Come on. Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at work? Everyone is now a weekend work warrior. Yeties, the catch is that while you're working less on weekdays, you're working more on weekends.

Wants, wow. The data shows that log in, slacks, emails, and Zoom meetings are all in the rise on the weekends. You're leaving early on Wednesday for the manny petty or the driving range, but then you're opening up your laptop on Saturday mornings. So we're checking out earlier Monday through Friday, but we're making up for Sunday morning. That's right. Now part of this is technology now enables it. Maybe you're using AI as well and part of it is just offices are more flexible these days. Yeah, they're saying get the work done. As long as you get it done, I don't care when you do it. And if you like your work, that none of this is an issue at all. It's a blast to do. We love doing work on weekends in fact, too.

Either way, work now looks like peanut butter. It's getting spread out. Work is now spread out like peanut butter on a seven-day long piece of life bread. Put that on a poster. So, besties, you're now leaving work 42 minutes earlier on weekdays, but you became a work weekend warrior. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us to kick off the week? On Friday, the world retaliated against Trump's tariff bombs. We may be entering a pan session.

And the American stock market depends on Berlin, Bangkok, and Buenos Aires. For our second story, Chipotle went on a seven-year quest to find a tariff-free avocado. Valiant effort, but it ultimately failed. Chipotle, it's now a case study. Made in America just ain't always possible. And finally, us Americans are finishing work at 439 in the evening,

42 minutes earlier than just two years ago. But we're also now working on weekends. We've all become weekend work warriors. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, as expected, President Trump delayed the deadline to sell TikTok another 75 days. So Congress passed a law to ban TikTok.

The Supreme Court affirmed that law. But after two 75-day delays of the enforcement, kind of wondering if the law even matters right now, Jack. Does the law even matter? Plenty of American investors do want to buy it, but China won't sell it. Jack and I still have an outstanding bid, although that is confidential information.

Besties, please do not share that with anyone. T-boy Quine, it's as good as money. And second, the chairman of the Federal Reserve is the most powerful six-foot man in finance. Everyone's asking, will he save America from a recession by cutting interest rates. Well, President Trump has demanded the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as it could boost the economy.

But he said no. On Friday, he reiterated. Inflation is the number one concern for the Fed, and tariffs are actually likely to exacerbate that. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve is set up to be a political so they don't take orders from Congress, the White House, or anybody. And finally, Minecraft the movie premiered over the weekend. Jack Black loves his video games. Yeah. Now, the Minecraft movie actually continues the trend.

we've noticed of movies named after commercial products. First the Barbie movie, then the Blackbird movie, then the Pop-Tart movie, now the Minecraft movie. Or is Jack and I call these Com-Comcoms, company comedies? Yeah, they're all comedies, aren't that? Yeah, they are. But our prediction for what's next, what do we think, Jack? The Kool-Aid movie. Yeah, Kool-Aid movie.

If you know, you know. Time for the best fact, yeah, this one whipped up by Jack and I, because we got some Monday trivia for you. Trivia. There is one candy in America that originally took 20, hours to make. That's right. 75 years ago, this candy was handmade by a group of old German women over in Pennsylvania. And to make each individual candy, it took those frowne 27 hours. So, Basties, we ask you today, what candy was made by hand and took 27 hours to finish each single small one? Leave your guesses in the comments. Drop them down there. By the way, hint,

you're going to overdose on them pretty soon. Next Sunday, actually. Yeah, and the answer to that Question will be revealed on tomorrow's show because it's also the subject of the next episode of our weekly show, The Best Idea Yet. Yeties, you look fantastic over there. Jack, you are looking fantastic as well. I'm not sure what movements you are doing right now, but I appreciate it. I like it. I kind of wish we got to go on a seven-year avocado quest.

Your El Dorado analogy was great. Okay, I mean, it was mythical. It was mystical. And apparently it doesn't exist. Yeties, remember to tell your buddies, H-Y-H-T-B-O-Y. Drop it when you're talking to someone today on Slack. That is how we grow the show. And try not to panic about the stock markets.

Nick and I are suffering too. We've seen downturns. They've always come up eventually. No guarantees, but we're staying in it. Yeah, hopefully Atlantis cancels the seafood tariffs. In the meantime, have you heard the best one yet? And Jack and I will see you tomorrow. Before we go, a happy seventh birthday to Yeti, Avery Kenneth,

celebrated over in Berlin, Massachusetts with the best birthday yet. And happy 50th birthday to Microsoft. Wow, I can't believe they're 50 years old. You barely look older than version three. And a happy congratulations to Yeti, Rick Finley, who's got a new job and a promotion down in Dallas, Texas. Congratulations, Rick. And a big shout out to Rachel Hauer, our creative director, who just finished an epic race out in California. And she finished first.

No matter what, we are 100% certain she finished first. And besties, if you want to get a shout out on this show, or if you've got the best fact yet, we've got a link in the episode description. Just click and add it right now. We'll get it for you. And Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. Can't wait. This is Jack.

I own stock of Levi and Nick and I both on stock of Chipotle, ETFs of the S&P 500, and some Bitcoin. Bitcoin named Ben. We'll do a quick cameo. Quick shout out to my son, who just crashed the podcast. There he is. Hey, Ponson. How you doing?

What's the picture of you, Daddy? What's the picture of? You're getting gifts. Oh, is this Lightning McQueen? No, it's here. What is it? It's a pistol. It's a pistol of a jar.

I was going to say it's a dragon. A dragon? Yes. Beautiful. Well done, Wadden. I'm going to finish the pod with that. Give me one second.