The Best One Yet - ⌚ “Photo Finish Inc.” — Omega’s Olympic moment. Wall Street’s 3-Bubble Problem. The Frozen-est IPO.

Episode Date: August 6, 2024

Noah Lyles won the men’s 100M, thanks to Omega’s watches… It was Omega’s supermarketing moment.Japan’s stock market just had its worst day in 37 years… and in the US, we face a “3-Bubble Problem.”¾ of the food we eat was frozen at some point… which explains how Lineage had the biggest (and coldest) IPO of the year.Plus, Pumpkin Spice season already began in July… but is that too late?$SPY $SWGAY $LINESubscribe to our Saturday Newsletter: tboypod.com/newsletter  Watch us on YouTube Submit Facts & Shoutouts Instagram, TikTok, LinkedIn (Nick) & LinkedIn (Jack)About Us: From the creators of Robinhood Snacks Daily, The Best One Yet (TBOY) is the daily pop-biz news show making today’s top stories your business. 20 minutes on the 3 business, economics, and finance stories you need, with fresh takes you can pretend you came up with — Pairs perfectly with your morning oatmeal ritual. Hosted by Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Tuesday, T-Boy, Tuesday, August 6th, and today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Jack, four days before our annual vacation, you know what? We just booked our flights, man. Wait, last time you said you're going to the place with our favorite sauces. All right, so Jack, here's the deal. When you arrive in Paris, turn to your left and wave. Is it marinara sauce? Does that mean you're going to Italy? I've already said too much. Or is it Tiziki sauce you're going to Greece? Or is it Aoli sauce? You're coming to France with me. All of the above, baby. Jack, three stories for today's show. I got to pack my bag. So what have we got, buddy?

For our first story, Japan's stock market just had its worst day in 37 years. And Wall Street plummeted it again too. So why are stocks, crypto, and everything dropping right now? Well, Jack and I call it the three. bubble problem. For our second story, every single Olympic race is being decided by one official timekeeper. Omega watches. Omega watches. Omega and Swatch are the perfect case study in Batman marketing. And our third and final story is the biggest IPO of the year. It's actually the coldest IPO of the year. On the 100th birthday of the fridge, the cold storage industry has never been

hotter. But yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories on our quad-old ultimate episode before our vacation. I like what you did there, Jack. Wonderful mix of stories, by the way, man. It's the first week of August. You know what that means. Oh, pumpkin spice season is approaching, baby. Correction.

Yes. Pumpkin spice season is here. Get this, Yet is. Chobani yogurt launched their pumpkin spice yogurt last week in July. Give me a break. No, I can't, Jack. I'll give you a pumpkin spice yogurt. That's right.

We already got the pumpkin squash spice rolling over. for pumpkin season. And it's hot out there, Yetis. We don't want a pumpkin spice latte right now. We want a pumpkin spice air conditioner. Less pumpkin spice. More pumpkin spritz, please. Yeah, less pumpkin spice because I'm pumpkin spitzin right now, Jack. And guess what? 7-Eleven is already going full pumpkin spice spice. They drop their pumpkin spice slurpy over the weekend. That is pumpkin spice carbonation, but Jack, could you please sprinkle out a little context for us right now? Starbucks, which invented the pumpkin spice flavor. True story. Isn't expected to drop their pumpkin spice latte?

until August. Last year was August 24th, to be exact, when Pumpkin Spice hit Starbucks. But still, this premature Pumpkin Spice flavoring is the perfect example of Christmas creep. Ah, Christmas creep, that phenomenon of the holidays marketing earlier and earlier and earlier. Christmas creep is why Christmas marketing starts in September now. Christmas Creep is why Pumpkin Spice now starts in the summer. Oh, and Home Depot, they already launched their Halloween merch. Jack, did you want to get a 12-foot skeleton? Because they're sold out right now. Before you know it, though, pumpkin spice will be on sale so early. You wonder if they're just late from last year.

You know what I mean? Pumpkin spice in February. Is that a few months too late or a few months too early, Jack? Hey, Dahlia Duncan, either way, you better start spicing up some pumpkins. Yeah, because pumpkin spice season just began in July. Yeties, leave a comment if you think this is way too early. Or you think it's way too late. Yeah, is it last year or is it this year?

It's your question. You're both wrong. Jack, let's in our three stories. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dawn. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip.

T-boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. Our first story. Japanese stock markets just got Japoud for their worst day in 13. years, and then in the United States markets plummeted on Monday.

Stocks worldwide are dropping, and it's all because of three specific trades. Jack and I call it the three bubble problem. By the way, Jack, did you notice fun stat while we were researching this story? 30% of the biggest stock market drops have happened on Mondays? I guess investors are like dreading Monday as much as we are. Yeah, it is yesterday. Jack and I explained that America's bad jobs are poor. for July caused stocks to fall. But then, Japanese stocks fell another 12% on Monday, which is Japan stock

market's worst day since 1987. In fact, add it all up. And in three days, Japan's stock market has fallen a stunning 20%. A giant fall that big is not caused by America's unemployment rate rising a little bit. There must be something else to what's happening in Japan. And what is it exactly, Jack. Complex financial trades have been unwinding in Japan like a rubber band. It's actually a little technical, but specifically hedge funds have spent years borrowing Japanese yen at a zero percent interest rate and then using that money to buy U.S. bonds at a higher 5 percent interest rate, so essentially making free money on the difference in interest rates between the countries. That's it. But Japan's central bank decision last week, it soured that trade. So these hedge funds have been panic selling stocks in Japan

to close their position, causing a whole bunch of chaos for all of us. Like we said, it's a little technical and involves a bunch of hedge funds, but the main problem is still this. Why are U.S. stocks freaking out as well? It's not just because of what's happening in Japan. It's also those new recession worries we told you about yesterday. On Monday morning, the S&P 500 fell another 3%, and it's now down 9% from its all-time high in mid-July. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plummeted yesterday, too. It was a really bad day for markets overall. In fact, markets are freaking out so badly. Some analysts think that the Federal Reserve should make an emergency rate cut ASAP. But Nick and I have some comforting context to

sprinkle onto this episode right now. Grab a snuggy in a pillow because what would we like to share with the Yeti's Jack? Although stocks have been dropping really fast the past couple weeks, the drop hasn't been as big as it may sound. Yeah, because when you look at the context, the market today is actually at the same place it was in June, too much. months ago. And two months ago in June, we were celebrating these incredibly high, record high stock prices. Yes, we know things dropped really quickly on Monday morning, and that speed is scary. But when you look at the absolute number, we're still pretty close to all-time highs, Jack. Two months ago, we thought this was friggin' incredible. Two months ago? Let's go back to that feeling. You're in a speedo.

You were living your best life. Let's do that. So yet is this Japanese stock market, Japan, we just told you about, it's probably going to fade into memory really soon. In the long run, the best thing to do when markets get crazy is to chill out a little bit. All right, Nick, we're all chill now, but what's really happening? Yeah, we should tell you what really is happening here. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are everyone in the stock market? The three most popular trades of 2024 have unwound in the past week. We call it the three bubble problem. Yeties, millions of trades happen every day in the stock market, but three big trades have driven stocks all year long. And In just the last couple weeks, all three of those big trades have reversed. They've been unwound. They've

been undone. Yep. The first of those big trades was the Trump bump. Wall Street was prepping for a second Trump term, which probably would have meant more corporate tax cuts, more regulations getting slashed, which are all good for corporate profits. Interestingly, there's been a clear correlation between Trump's likelihood of winning and the stock market's performance. And with Harris's recent rise in the polls, the Trump bump has been unwound. Well, trade number two is AI enthusiasm. Wall Street thought the AI would boost revenue and cut costs for all, with tech companies winning the most.

But that trade is now getting unwound because giant artificial intelligence investments haven't quite paid off yet. And the third big trade of 2024 that's getting unwound is the crypto comeback. Ah, the crypto comeback. Bitcoin got its mojo back this year, but in the last 24 hours, it's fallen 17%. So it's not just Japan's financial Japao. that's crushing worldwide markets right now. And it's not just the increase in risk of a U.S. recession either. The three big trades of 2024 are all getting unwound. For our second story, Omega, the Watch Company.

They showcase their precision in the men's 100-meter photo Olympic finish. It's a case study of superhero marketing, when ordinary brands do extraordinary things. Jack, were you watching the track and field over the weekend? Did you catch this on TV? No. But I saw the highlights, like everyone else, after the fact. Well, for everyone watching track and field at the Olympics,

every seat in the stadium was empty, because everyone was on their feet, Jack. Because for the first time in 20 years, an American is the fastest man in the world. And I had he's for three straight Olympic games. In our lifetimes, Usain Bolt won the legendary 100-meter sprint in track and field. And over the weekend, his countryman, a Jamaican,

almost won the 100 meter once again. And over the weekend, that race finished in 9.7.9 seconds. That's it. 100 meters, the winner finished in 9.79 seconds. And the announcers actually thought it was the Jamaican, Kishane Thompson, who won. They did, but then the official said, wait, photo booth, photo booth. We don't know the winner. They went to the cameras, and it turns out an American crossed the finish line first. The announcers were wrong.

In fact, get this. The guy who came in third place in this race actually had. his foot across the finish line before anyone. But it's the torso that gets the win. The torso gets the win. And Noah Lyle's torso crossed first in an outrageously close race. Not even Zeus knew who won, but Noah Liles ended up the winner. Noah Liles finished 0.005 seconds faster than the next closest guy.

0.005 seconds. Yeties, that is the closest one to finish in Olympic racing history. Nick, how much time is 5-100th of a second? Sorry, 5-1,000th of a second. I'm so glad you asked, Jack, let me grab my T-I-83 calculator. Actually, I don't know. But there is one company that knows, Jack, and that company is Omega. Omega.

The Swiss watch brand is actually responsible for every photo finish at the Olympics. Omega is the official timekeeper of the Olympic Games. You see their logo at every finish line. They're flexing their 180-year tradition of Swiss time. keeping on every jile. Because Jack, you know what the Swiss are famous for, right? Clocks? Coo-Clox? Yeah, fondue, bank accounts, clucco clocks, and dipping their watches and cheese. But they should be known for this newest technology that Omega uses at the Olympics.

Yeah, because Omega invented a camera that takes 40,000 pictures every second, 40,000 frames every single second. And they point that camera just at the five millimeters of crucial finish line space that determines the winner of the race. And it's not just track and field. The Omega camera also is put to use in rowing, in swimming, in cycling, even in archery at the Olympics. Every race of these Olympics is determined by Omega's camera. Omega says who won and Omega says who gets a bullseye. Now, without this crazy camera, we would have had to call the 100-meda final this weekend.

We would have had to call it a tie. It was so close. And we know that Noah Liles was the clear winner. Oh, and Nick, spoiler. How long is 0.005 seconds? I looked it up. a blink of an eye is 20 times longer than that. It was a tight race.

Now, yeah, it is, Omega is actually owned by the Swiss watch conglomerate, known as Swatch Group. Omega is the third biggest Swiss watch brand, and they make up 60% of Swatch's corporate profits. And Swatch's stock was the only company we could find yesterday whose stock was actually up. Because of this story and because of this takeaway.

So Jack, in 0.005 seconds, what's the takeaway for our buddies' overall? Over at Omega. There's marketing moments, and then there's supermarketing. Yet is, for 89 years, Omega has been the official timekeeper of the Olympics since 1932. Precision watchmaker from a neutral company. Yeah, it works. Nobody is better suited to determine the winner of the Olympics.

Perfect brand for this job. Well, until 1968, Omega used stopwatches. Then they evolve to cameras, and now Omega's super cameras determine the Olympics. Olympic winners. Omega invested big research and development money, and they take big reputational risk to decide the winner of the Olympics. Because that risk is worth the reward of potential Superman moments for Omega. Omega has TV ads that gain respect from consumers, like a police officer gains respect from the public. But this Olympic moment made Omega look like Superman. They swooped in, they saved the day, and you'll never forget them because of it. Omega's camera

had 200 frames showing Liles across the finish line and his rivals not across the finish line yet. It was that good at doing its job. Omega could have invested this money in more TV commercials. Instead, they invested in this 40,000 frame per second camera to own the finish line. Because the way Jack and I see it, there are marketing campaigns, but then there are supermarketing moments. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, the biggest IPO of the year is actually the coldest IPO of the year. And the company is lineage cold storage. Because there's a gold rush in the cold rush.

You'll have no idea how much of the food you eat was frozen or refrigerated at some point. Yeah, it is. If you want to know what it was like before refrigeration, watch the movie Frozen. Before freezers, a bunch of burly men up north would cut into ice like a frozen lake. with saws and shipped gigantic ice cubes down a river. That's how Elsa made her smoothies. But 100 years ago, we actually got the first temperature-controlled refrigerator that you know and love today.

And you've been enjoying freeze pops every weekend ever since. Well, 100 years later, the biggest fridge company on Earth just went public. It was the biggest IPO of 2024. We're talking about lineage cold storage. A huge company with $5 billion of profit. refrigeration revenues. Yeah, they had their IPO at a $20 billion valuation, IPO initial polar offering day big. And at $20 billion, there were three lifts. Yeties, this is the largest temperature control supply chain and logistics company on Earth. It's basically one giant refrigerator.

They have hundreds of giant warehouses, thousands of refrigerated trains, and a whole bunch of trucks that are frozen, too. In fact, they have 84 million square feet of frozen space. Jack, to sprinkle on more context, please. That is 1,458 football fields worth of freezer. Oh, freeze and lineage. It's got 480 ice warehouses that are so big. There's rumored to be polar bears living in the corners of them. Someone submitted a notice to HR. To quote Vanel Ice, Ice Baby. Those are the only lyrics of his I actually know, Jack. That's the only thing you ever famously said. But yet is we know what you're thinking. And this is what we found fascinating. Why is cold storage so hot? Because we're not in a gold rush. We're in a cold rush. Cold storage has never been hotter. And yeties, you use more refrigeration than you realize.

Because yeties, get this. Three out of four things that you eat was frozen at some point. Three quarters of your food. For example, that banana you're eating right now was picked up in Costa Rica and then spends three weeks in a refrigerated supply chain before getting to your bodega. So it's not just a Dejornos frozen pizza that requires a freezer. If you buy a banana, odds are, lineage helped to cold ship it to you. Lineage, they are piggybacking on the grocery surge right now. And interestingly, lineage is also an energy company. We notice they say the word energy 123 times in their S-1 IPO paperwork. Anyone who pays an electric bill knows how expensive it is to run a fridge. But from a marketing perspective, they position themselves as an environmental company. Because their cold storage

prevents food from wasting, which is sustainable in a way. But besties, you know Jack and me, We wanted to have our own opinion, so we jumped in T-boy style to get an answer here. Lineage isn't just a refrigeration, energy, or environmental company. No, it's not. It's our takeaway. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our cold buddies over at Lineage? The biggest fridge company in America has never built a fridge. Yeties, how did Lineage become the biggest refrigerator company that you've never heard of? Through acquisitions.

Lineage is basically a giant, real... estate acquisition company. It's a finance company. Lineage. They acquired 116 ice storage companies to get to their current size, and they didn't build any of them. They even acquired America's oldest ice company, a family-run firm that somehow got ice down to New Orleans way back in 1886. These guys bought them. This is basically an investment fund of refrigerators. Jack, lineage is a fridge fund. That's what it is. Tickr symbol, ice was not available, sadly. In fact, here's another shocker. The founders of lineage aren't refrigerator or storage guys

either. They're finance guys. They believe one unified network offers efficiencies. It's easier for food companies to work with one lineage than like 50 family freezing companies. So add it all up yeties, and this is wild, but lineage caught the cold rush. But at their core,

they're not a fridge company. They're a finance company. Jack, you're looking fantastic, so can you whip up the takeaways for us for T-Boy Tuesday? Japan's stocks got Jopal. by complex hedge fund shenanigans, but even U.S. stock markets are down too. It's all because of the three bubble problem. Trades on Trump, AI, and crypto have all been unwound.

For our second story, it's Omega. It's because of the three bubble problem. Trades on Trump, trades on AI, and trades on crypto have all been unwound. For our second story, it's Omega, the watch company. They were behind the photo finish at the men's 100-meter win by Noah. It's a case of superhero marketing when ordinary brands do extraordinary things. And finally, lineage cold storage is a supply chain of frozenness and just had the biggest IPO of the year.

They're not a fridge company and they're not an energy company. Lineage is actually a finance company. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Kamala Harris is expected to pick her running maid right about now, like sometime today, actually. Reports say by Tuesday morning, she'll have picked her vice president. So, yet, as you listen to this, it may have already

happened. We'd already recorded this episode. So, there you go. We're just giving you in the loop. We're not going to predict too, either. We're not going to predict to. And second, breaking late yesterday, Google lost the first antitrust court case of the modern internet era. Google is a monopolist and has acted like one to

maintain its monopoly. That's what a judge wrote in a 277 page decision. Apparently, pre-installing Google, on Android phones and paying billions to be the default search engine on iPhone, that was the guilty move. Google stock was not affected, though, because they'll appeal the case and it could end up in the Supreme Court. And finally, Airbnb may have a new strategy to lure travelers, and that strategy is luxury amenities. Airbnb's chief business officer said that they're going to add luxury amenities somehow to Airbnb listings. Your next Airbnb could have massages, personal chefs,

and a few other spa add-ons. Namaste. Because hotels offer these things, and Airbnb just wants to match the competition. And there's nothing you want more than your Airbnb host giving you acupuncture jack. I don't think that's how it's going to be.

Hey, Jimmy, come in here. You missed a spot. I look like a third-party spa is going to, like, come over. Whoa, Jimmy, it's a little rough. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one set in by Anthony Whitlow from Lovely Albany, the Capitol. of New York. I feel like I've been hosed. Nick, an Olympic gold medal is 92.5% silver. Yeah,

get that. The IOC dictates that the gold medal have 523 grams of silver, plated with just six grams of gold on the outside. So, according to Oxford Economics, the gold medal is worth an estimated $1,027. The silver medal is worth about $535. And the bronze medal, oh, this one actually hurts. Sorry to tell you, but the bronze. But the bronze medal, but the Bronze is worth just $4.60. Yeah, because it's made of copper and tin and zinc, and it's worth less than a happy meal. Sorry, bronze medal winners. Yeah.

Also, gold medals, they're not worth their weight in gold. They're worth their weight in, like, a bunch of different metals, apparently. Mostly silver for some really confusing reason. It's about the brand equity value, Jack, the emotional value. I call it a bad deal. Want to speak to a manager. Yeties, you look fantastic for T-Boy Tuesday. And remember, Jack and I want to know, did pumpkin spice start too late in July or too early in July?

Comment on YouTube, Spotify, or Instagram with your thoughts. Jack, when you get to France, I know the first thing you're asking for. Not pumpkin spice latte. If I ordered a pumpkin spice latte, they would kick me out of the country, I'm pretty sure. No, that's why you ask for the pumpkin spice spritz. I think they're okay with that in France. I think you're sabotaging me with this advice. No, they'll just tell you, it's not possible.

Never gets old. Jack and I will see tomorrow. Before we go, a happy birthday to Betty No, celebrating with some country music down in honky-tonk, Nashville, Tennessee. Happy birthday to Gary Clyman in Livingston, New Jersey, who's the best father and future father-in-law. And Michael Pease is celebrating down in Fayetteville, New York, with the best birthday yet. Happy birthday to Ali Lopez in Boston, Mass. Just outside Boston. And to anyone else, celebrating something today, make it a T-boy.

Celebrate the wins. This is Jack, Nick and I both on stock of Airbnb. We both own ETFs at the S&P 500, and we both own some Bitcoin. Bitcoin named that. Tuck's like, yeah, what of it. What of it? I don't care. I don't care.

Great call with Tuck Boeing. That's hilarious.