The Best One Yet - 🥠 “Return on fortune” — OpenFortune’s cookie ads. 32% MBA app surge. Zyn’s cigarette savior.

Episode Date: October 24, 2024

Your next fortune cookie may be filled with an ad… because 1 startup baked 135M of them.Business school applications surged 32% this year… because of Zuck and AI.Philip Morris’ cigarette stock is at an all-time high… because Zyn sales have overtaken cigarettes.Plus, the most popular restaurant in Austin, TX? It’s AI. $PM $HD $SPY—-----------------------------------------------------Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Thursday, the new Friday, October 24th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Oh, Yeti's stocks have fallen for three straight days. Yesterday was actually the worst day for stocks in two months. But Jack, quick question. Is the stock market just one percent off its record high? Yeah, we're in pretty good shape. And is Jim Kramer still rolling up his sleeves on Wall Street? Most likely. Is today's pod the best one we've ever done? Confirmed. Yeti is this is a T-boy Jack. Three Stories for today's pod. What have we got on the show? For our first story, cigarettes are basically dying out. And yet Philip Morris Stock is at an all-time high? It's all because of Zinn, which is now bigger than Marlborough. For our second story, your next fortune cookie at the end of a Chinese meal may be filled with an advertisement.

Because one startup controls the majority of fortune cookies, so they're sticking ads inside your cookies. And our third and final story, business school applications have surged to the highest level in a full decade. So Jack and I have to talk about the great AI retraining. But yet, Eddies, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Fantastic mix of stories for the real Friday, or the new Friday, feels like a real Friday. Nick and I want to talk about the number one restaurant that's trending in Austin, Texas. The ethos restaurant in lovely Austin, Texas. Amazing hardy food with an in-house bakery for baked goods. I mean, Jack, I'm looking right now. They got waffle towers. They make bouquets of cinnibuns. They even have a Philly cheese steak in a croissant shaped like a dinosaur.

It all looks incredible, which is why Ethos in Austin has 73,000 Instagram followers. To sprinkle on context, that is more than any other restaurant in the entire city. Except there's one problem. Ah, one problem. And what is that, Jack? The Ethos Restaurant in Austin isn't real. Get this, Yeties. This restaurant in Austin is a fake. The account is real, but all the images are AI. In fact, all the followers keep asking the restaurant for the address. But it doesn't exist. And yet, I'm looking at it right now, Jack. But what's the wildest part about this story? Even though this is an AI restaurant that's tricked almost 100,000 people, it still makes money. Because Besties, the ethos AI restaurant

sells merchandise. You can't buy their tater tots, you can buy their t-shirts. And that ice cream Sunday? It's just AI. But you can buy a sweatshirt with a picture of that ice cream Sunday. So, yadis, be careful out there if you're ordering takeout tonight. Your mouth may be watering over a meal that's not real. Hey, waiter! Waiter? Yeah, where's the waiter?

Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. T-boy City on your at list. If you know, you know,

because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, Philip Morris, the world's largest cigarette company, is a growth stock again, thanks to Zinn. We'll explain how even though tobacco is dying, this cigarette stock is at an all-time high.

All right, Jack, I got three words for you. Philip Morris International. Harmless name? deeply harmful products. Philip Morris is known for Marlboro, Parliament, and Virginia Slim cigarettes. They made menthol look like menthos. If you opened up a magazine in the 80s and there were young people smiling at you, they probably had a camel hanging out with them at the time. Or Philip Morris. Or a cowboy, which sometimes would get creepy in a hot tub. But Yeti's last quarter for the first time ever, this epically large cigarette company sold more nicotine

pouches than cigarettes. That's right. They sold 164 million packs of cigarettes last quarter, but 165 million cans of nicotine pouches. Add up those numbers, and this cigarette company, they have transformed, Jack. They're no longer a cigarette company. They're a majority Zinn company. It's now a Zinn company. Now yet is Jack and I first jumped in T-boy style to the Zin phenomenon back in July over the summer. Back then, Zinfluens were spreading the gospel of these nicotine pouches. Zin, the extremely popular brand of, nicotine pouches, they come in a little can of 15. They're tiny little pouches of nicotine that you stick behind your lip.

You can find them in a frat house or in a finance office. They give you a little high, but they're just the addictive nicotine chemical. And the pouches are so tiny, they're super discreet. So some guy, the guy next to you can have one right now and you won't even know it. Jim Kramer may even have one at this very moment, but the safety has not been fully studied yet. Though since there's no tobacco, they're at least somewhat less harmful. The hope is that adult smokers will switch their addiction from cigarettes to Zinn pouches. But the fear is that Zinn pulls a jewel. And what does that look like, Jack?

That would mean causing a teen nicotine epidemic. After all, the newest flavor is Bollini. Yeah, Balini, as in brunch, bolini. Pairs well with pancakes. Now, we're not sure whether adult smokers are switching to Zinn or teens are starting to take up Zinn. But what we are sure about is that Zinn has now become Philip Morris's profit puppy. In the last three months, Zin sales rose 44% compared to the year before. That's led to a record revenue and record profit for Philip Morris and Jack. What is that done to Philip Morris's stock? It sent that to a record too. On Tuesday, Philip Morris stock jumped 10%. The company is now worth $200 billion. $200 billion. Yetty's this cigarette stock is now worth

more than Amex, more than Uber, and more than Budweiser and Budweiser is like fully legal. And it's all happening while smoking is pretty much going extinct. Yeah, the percentage of Americans, smoking has fallen from 42% in the 60s of the Madman era to just 12% today. And yet the number one cigarette company in the world is at an all-time high thanks to Zinn. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are anyone selling a dying product? To survive an extinction, embrace your family. Yeties, on day one of business school, every teacher teaches the same case study. And that The case study is railroads. When cars started becoming mainstream in America, all the railroad companies went bankrupt.

Jack, what was the major mistake of all those railroad companies? Instead of resisting cars, the railroad companies should have embraced cars. Exactly. The mistake was thinking that they were railroad companies when really they were transportation companies. Right now, Yeties, several major industries face a threat of extinction, just like railroads did 100 years ago. Jack, let's hit the whiteboard. ExxonMobil. They could survive the extinction of fossil fuels if they embrace what they really are. An energy company. Disney can survive the extinction of cable if they embrace what they really are, an entertainment company.

And right now, Philip Morris is surviving the extinction of cigarettes because they're embracing nicotine. They're not a cigarette company. They're a nicotine company. In no way are we endorsing cigarettes. But to survive extinction, embrace your family. For our second story, this one's wild. The new frontier in marketing, it's fortune cookies. Get this. The startup that makes 90% of our fortune cookies is starting to put ads in there.

All right, Jack, last month, last time we were in San Francisco together, great team dinner. We had a fantastic team dinner down in Chinatown. We went to China Live. Love China Live. They had a chrysanthemum salad. It was like a work of art. We wanted to take pictures more than we wanted to eat it. It was so good.

actually brought home a bottle of chili crunch because my brother loves that restaurant so much. He loves China Live. But at the end of the meal, we cracked open our fortune cookies. We shared our lucky numbers, 3642. And what did we notice? Here was the fortune cookie we opened. Your journey ahead is one of relaxation. So use promo code fortune for 15% off your next Waymo ride. Are you kidding me? We couldn't believe it. Romot taxi put an advertisement in a fortune cookie. It was wild, so we dug in T-boy style. Oh, we did. Yeties, the company behind this Fortune cookie fortune ad is called Open Fortune.

The co-founders decided to launch this company after noticing that the backside of Fortune Cookie fortunes, that little piece of paper was blank. And where there are eyeballs, there should be ads, so they invented a Fortune cookie ad. And this year, Open Fortune got an investment from Gary Vanderchuk. But Yette's here's what Jack and I found fascinating about this story. This Fortune cookie startup Open Fortune has a monopoly on all fortune cookies. They make the Fortune cookies for 47,000 Asian restaurants in the United States. And they say that they control 90% of the Fortune cookie market.

Messies, if you order some dim sum tonight, odds are, statistically speaking, you're getting a Fortune cookie made by Open Fortune. And that means that every month, 135 million people view their ad on the back of their fortune cookies. A hundred and thirty-five million people. That's like half of Pinterest, Jack. Not too shabby. And they get pretty creative, too. They often tie the fortune, which is still like fortune cookie style, with the ad, the marketing

language on the other side of the paper. For example, there was an ad that they did for a mattress company, and Jack, what did that fortune cookie mattress ad say? The fortune said, if something is worth doing, do it extraordinarily. And then you turn it around and it says dot, dot, dot, dot, in bed. Nice mattress. Mattress, mattress. No, we know what you're thinking, Yetis.

What is the potential to grow any further? Well, this Fortune Cookie company is expanding to new cuisines. They're trying to create a Fortune cookie equivalent for Latin restaurants. Like a taco-shaped fortune cookie that everyone cracks open at a Mexican restaurant. Then, Jack, did you see they're coming for pizza restaurants next? So the next time you order Italian food, you're going to have a fortune in your Calzone. I'm not totally into this. I feel like fortune cookies should stay just in Chinese restaurants.

I think you just got us canceled, Jack, but we should move on. Yet he's, Meta and Google. They are trillion-dollar companies at all-time highs thanks to their digital ad industries. But this scrappy startup reaches 135 million eyeballs thanks to fortune cookies? That's right. They're reaching as many users as Meta's threads does, but they're doing it through dim sum. By the way, Jack, did I ever tell you about my dad's best fortune cookie? No, what did it say?

It said, you will never amount. to anything. What? That's brutal. He said it was motivating. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in the ad industry? The best ads aren't in places.

They're in moments. Yet he's the wildest data about this fortune cookie ad startup that businesses love. It's the shareability. According to the company, 6% of their Fortune cookie ads are posted on social media. And 100% of these Fortune cookie ads are shared with the intent. entire table around you. So this is the rare case where an advertisement is such good content that it's shared.

And that one reason we should point out is the novelty, right, Jack? That's eventually going to wear off. People won't be posting Fortune Cookie ads anymore once they get used to them. But another key reason is that the Fortune cookies are open during a very specific moment. A moment when everyone is full, they just had a great meal, they're with people that they like, and they're feeling fantastic. Open Fortune, they have inserted themselves into that moment. with an ad, but also with a fortune.

It is rare to meet a customer at a moment of such universal positivity and attention as when they're opening fortune cookies. And that is what great advertising does. It's not about places, it's about moments. Great advertising is momentizing. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, applications to business school. Just hit a 10-year high this year, despite,

of booming economy. Because what are MBA programs teaching these days? They're teaching the great AI retraining. Yetis, there are houses, there are kids, there are midlife crisis cars. But getting an MBA is one of the most expensive investments that any adult can make. Before you even arrive, you're expected to go on a 10-day trek to like Tahiti, basically an expensive vacation with your future classmates. Oh, Jack, where did you meet your learning team? Oh, I met them at Yacht Week off the Mediterranean coast at a pre-orientation. Apparently, it's networking, Nick. It's networking. It's a write-off. It's actually not a right-off. Yeah, we should double check it. Yet he's here's the news. Interest in going back to school and getting an MBA just hit its highest level in a decade.

Applications to full-time MBA programs rose 32% this year compared to last year. Harvard Business School saw applications up 21%. Chicago Booth jumped 22%. Columbia Business School saw a 27% pop in their applications. And the reason that more people are rushing to shell out 200K for an MBA, it actually began two years ago. It all began with Zuck's year of efficiency. Jack, take us back in time. We covered it on this pot. Two years ago, Mark Zuckerberg declared efficiency was coming, and we translated that to mean layoffs were coming. Because Meta overhired during the pandemic, and then they had to downsize. Now, Zuck's big and announcement that they were going to do layoffs, it gave cover for the rest of the tech industry to

do the same, which led to huge job losses throughout the tech industry. Zuck laid off 20,000 people. Tech overall eliminated 400,000 jobs in the last two years. Added it all up, and the result was what we called the Patagonia Vest Recession. So, Nick, what did all those dynamic results-driven professionals do as a result of this? Well, Jack, considering you and I did the same thing like six years ago, you disrupt your and you begin the MBA journey. And yet he's Jack and I know. Just to apply to business school, it is a journey. In 2022, these techies signed up for a prep class so they could ace the GMAT exam. Maybe you hired a tutor. In 2023, they wrote application essays. They got letters of recommendations

and they applied to various top schools. Maybe you found your calling. And this year, in 2024, we saw applications hit those admissions offices at 10-year record high levels. And you all awkwardly told your boss, you were leaving for business school, but that you hope to return one day and you want to remain friends. And please write me a letter of recommendation before I leave. Yeah, I'm going to need one of those before I leave. All of that, Yetis, was triggered by Zuck's year of efficiency two years ago. But all of that is also reinforced by artificial intelligence. And that is our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are everyone applying to business school? Artificial intelligence requires the great

AI retraining. Yeties, the U.S. job market, it is strong. Unemployment, it is low. And yet, white-collar workers are feeling uneasy right now. Because AI is the first major technological breakthrough that threatens knowledge workers. Now, in the past, automation has replaced factory jobs. But now automation is coming for finance jobs. So MBA programs are creating AI tracks to teach students how to lead in this brand new industry.

And we notice MBA programs are creating AI proof tracks to point you to an industry that is saved from AI. So the interest in MBAs, it began two years ago with Zuck's year of efficiency. But the surge is driven by the great AI retraining. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the new Friday? Philip Morris stock is at all-time record highs because they sell more Zinn now than cigarettes. Yeah, it is, if your product is going extinct, embrace your extended family. For our second story, it's open fortune. They control 90% of the fortune cookie market, and now they're sticking ads in there.

Because the best ads, they aren't in places. They're in moments. It's momentizing. And our third and final story. Applications to full-time MBA programs are up 32% this year to a 10-year high. The business school bump. It is all part of the great AI retraining. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet.

Here's what else you need to know today. First, home sales are on their pace for their worst. year in 30 years. We're talking worst year for home sales since 1995. 2025. 2024 is on pace for just 3 million homes to change hands. That's down 50% from the gangbusters of 2021. Oh, I know what you're thinking? Didn't the Fed lower interest rates? Yeah, they did, but it takes mortgage rates a little bit longer to respond. So this is going to be the third straight year of less home sales than the year before. And second, Tesla jumped after announcing better than expected earnings. What do we got, Jack?

automotive revenue rose just 2%. So sales of Tesla cars are basically flat from last year. But interestingly, power wall batteries, supercharging, and other Tesla services, they're booming right now. The Robotaxi unveil was kind of a dud, but sales of regulatory credits are bigger than ever. And finally, Starbucks's new CEO has a turnaround job that is bigger than any barista could imagine. Starbucks warned yesterday that their third quarter earnings were bad. They were really bad. Yeah, Starbucks sales, they feel 7% at U.S. locations and 14% at China locations. Starbucks was once a beloved third place. Now, it's a place people don't want to be, apparently.

Feels like the right time to pivot to small, medium, large on the drink sizes, Jack. I'm not going venty, Trenti anymore. Come on. Why is the tall your smallest coffee? Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Lori Rudder from lovely Wellfleet, Massachusetts, just outside Boston. Let's state this one as a trivia question. What state is the largest producer of cranberries?

Well, we're thinking New England. We're thinking northern vibes. I mean, Jack, Lori's from Wellfleet. I got to say Massachusetts. I'm going to Massachusetts on this one. I know two people who work at Ocean Spray, the cranberry company. Yeah, the cranberry bogs. But it's actually Wisconsin.

Wisconsin, cranberry capital of America. It's a $1 billion industry over in the Midwest. Wisconsin produces 60% of America's cranberries, and they're all gearing up for the granddaddy sale season of them all, Thanksgiving. Only time of year you're going to say more cranberry sauce, please, and make it a Wisconsin bear. Yeties, you look fantastic today, especially if you're on a pre-MBA 10-day retreat down in Tahiti before you head over to Yacht Week off the Mediterranean. Not a ride-off.

I'm telling you, I can tell you from personal experience. I don't know. We got to check that. Yeties, if you haven't yet, click to follow us. So you get the T-Boy show every single day right up in your feed. It'll be there every single time. And Nick and I will be here for the best one yet tomorrow. One set, Jack.

I'm opening my fortune cookie, and it says, Nick and Jack will be here tomorrow. Okay. Use coupon code T-boy for a free podcast episode. Did you get the same fortune? I did. Well done, man. Well done.

Lucky numbers, 312, 42. Jack and I will see you moniat. Before we go, Happy 40th birthday to legendary Yeti, Richard Blythe, down in lovely Bristow, Oklahoma. And happy birthday to Finley Murphy of Bentonville, Arkansas, who wouldn't dare listen to this podcast without his bestie. Oh, great move, Finley. And Yasmin Brahas is the best tour guide yet celebrating a birthday in St. Louis, Missouri, underneath that legendary arch. Big shout out to Patrick Hunter in San Francisco, who started a weekly sports newsletter that covers three stories inspired by T-Boy.

I like those takeaways, Jack. And happy birthday, 39 years to Laura Welty celebrating with some fantastic weather down in San Diego, California. Happy birthday to Raul and Cristobal Garcia in Monterey, Mexico, who are listening on the way to school right now. Chrisabal actually leads a student investment club, and together, they're the best investors yet. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I still own stock of Disney.

still remember when he said Keep them fortune cookies in the Chinese Restaurants Remember when he said that? It was messed up, man.