The Best One Yet - 🔙 “Reverse Uno” — Tariffs’ mogging. Ice Cream’s exit. Nike’s ACG mystery. +The 1st Handshake

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Nick. This is Jack. Welcome back. It is Monday, February 23rd. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Jack, you know how I'm preparing for our live show this week? Are you on voice rest? Just saw Van Morrison live at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco.

Starting point is 00:00:20 Hmm. A romantic concert with your wife is how you're preparing to go on stage with me. All right. Palace of Fine Arts? Good venue for a podcast, a live podcast, Jack. Is that a hint? It's not a spoiler. We're also the youngest ones in the crowd.

Starting point is 00:00:34 Jack, three fantastic stories for today's pod. What have we got on the T-Boy? For our first story, President Trump's tariffs got hit with the reverse Uno card. Yep. They've been struck down by the Supreme Court. So Jack and I'll tell you how to unscramble this trade war scrambled egg. For our second story, ice cream, you scream. What's happening to ice cream?

Starting point is 00:00:52 Nestle is selling all of its ice cream because running an ice cream business is really, really annoying. And our third and final story is the Supreme. prize co-star of the Olympics. It's a new brand called ACG that every American athlete wore. But it's secretly owned by Nike, and it could actually save the Nike. But besties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. I mean, what a mix to kick off the week. I love the mix, Jack. The wildest drama of last week wasn't on Love Island, Bravo, or TMZ. No, no, no, no, no. It was between the two biggest names in AI. Sam Altman of Open AI and Dario Amadeh, of Anthropic, are in their toxic era. Besties, these dudes hate each other.

Starting point is 00:01:30 so much, they won't even shake hands. It's a true story. Last week at India's AI summit, those two men were both there and they avoided each other like the plague. Like Sam, he's feeling burned by Anthropic Super Bowl ads. And Dario doesn't want Sam to start spontaneously advertising on it mid-conversation. Classic Sam. But then the Prime Minister of India insisted all the attendees stand up for a photo op on stage. And get this, the Prime Minister insisted that Sam and Dario stand next to each other. Awkward. He asked everyone to hold hands in a sign of unity. More awkward.

Starting point is 00:02:04 Everyone did hold hands except these two. They just stood side by side and put their hands up in the air. It was very conspicuous, not handholding. Very awkward. Basically, these two have gone from friends to enemies like Nikki Minaj and Cardi B. Like Regina George and Katie. Like Drake versus Kendrick. But since these two won't shake hands, Jack and I got curious about the origin of the handshake.

Starting point is 00:02:26 Where was the first handshake? Like, when did that become a thing? Well, we dove in T-boy style and discovered it was King Shaumaneser, the third of ancient Babylon. Thanks, history major. The first dude to shake hands with another man in a sign of, like, we're cool with each other, was in the 9th century BC. We know because it's on a stone tablet. It's fat-checked.

Starting point is 00:02:46 And the purpose of the handshake, well, the handshake signals, I come in peace. Like, we're holding hands. I'm not going to fight you. It's pretty hard to stab you if we're shaking hands. So, Basties, you're going to shake someone's hand today, just like the ancient Babylonians. But unlike Sam and Daria. Awkward, Jack. Let's hit our three stories.

Starting point is 00:03:03 Fifteen years before this song. Two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list.

Starting point is 00:03:20 If you know, you know, because we're rare to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. Our first story. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump's global tariffs. It's a massive reverse uno card undoing the president's favorite policy. But how do you unscramble the egg that is one full year of tariffs collected?

Starting point is 00:03:56 Oh, yeties. Last week, President Trump said he would release files about aliens and UFOs. Then the Supreme Court dropped this UFO out of nowhere on us. The Supreme Court, in a 6 to 3 majority opinion, actually stated the case very simply. Tariffs are taxes, and only Congress can tax. Now, President Trump had claimed that there was a loophole here that allowed him to do this full year of tariffs.

Starting point is 00:04:18 Emergency power is granted in a 1997 law. But that didn't pass the sniff test of the Supremes. They said the emergencies Trump cited, they weren't really valid in this case. So the ruling is that tariffs aren't illegal, in and of themselves. They simply need to be approved by Congress, like any other tax needs to be approved by Congress. It's like President Trump was tariff maxing, and then Congress said, no cap, we need a cap on those tariffs.

Starting point is 00:04:43 And then the Supreme Court just mugged the president's tariffs. I'm going to put all of that into Gen ZAI chatbot and figure it out. Yeah, I got you on the translation. But this leads to the big question yet is, what happens next? The hardest part happens next, because how do you untairiff tariffs that have already been tariffed? That hath which been tariffed, Jack. President Trump's tariffs basically scrambled global trade. That's what we said last year. So unscrambling the egg of one year of tariffs, that's going to be a huge challenge now.

Starting point is 00:05:17 How do you go from omelet back to the egg? Besties, the easy part here is the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Those are cancelled immediately. And the 10% so-called reciprocal tariffs from Liberation Day, those are canceled as well. But targeting specific industries like steel, those tariffs stay in place. 40% of Trump's tariffs were not struck down by the Supreme Court. Those are actually legal under different laws. But Jack, what about the hardest part of this already hard question? The refunds. Because as a reminder, this lawsuit that the Supreme Court just ruled on,

Starting point is 00:05:48 it came from small businesses who sued the Trump administration for the tariffs. Exactly. And small businesses hurt by tariffs, they want payback. They want justice. They want refunds. I'd like to speak to a manager, please. After all, they paid money to the government tariffs. and those tariffs are legal, so shouldn't they get their money back now?

Starting point is 00:06:07 So two reports last week actually confirmed what President Trump has denied for a long time. The two reports confirmed that foreign countries don't pay the tariffs, we do. But the Supreme Court didn't say anything about the refunds. Maybe low courts or maybe a future Supreme Court ruling, maybe that we'll figure it out later on. It's really frustrating that after deliberating on this for months, the Supreme Court didn't answer the huge question of refunds. Yeah, I know what you're feeling right now, Jack. It's like a parent saying, let's drop our three-year-old's, nap, but then not explaining what's going to happen to that gap in the day that you depend on

Starting point is 00:06:38 when your kid is napping. So the fundamental question, how to unscramble these scrambled tariff eggs, basically issuing refunds, well, lawsuits are lining up just to figure it out. So how did markets react, though, to the news that the tariffs are illegal? Pretty, brithy good, Jack. Very well, because the tariffs getting canceled are effectively a tax cut for the whole economy. So that's why we saw the made-in-China stocks popping last week. Elf beauty makeup, which does a lot of their stuff in China, their stock rose 23% last week, now that tariffs are gone. It was very dewy. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies wondering what happens next? The president should use the Supreme Court's ruling to walk away

Starting point is 00:07:18 from this losing policy. This is an off-ramp. You see, best he's on Friday, President Trump accused the six major judges of the Supreme Court of disloyalty to our Constitution. That's not what happened, though. That's the opposite of what happened. But the president then pledged to replace his struck-down tariffs with brand new 10% tariffs that are more legally durable. But just because the president says he'll do something doesn't mean he actually will do something. Think about it. With affordability in the midterms coming up, he could use the Supreme Court's decision to let this bad policy end. And why is it a bad policy? Well, we got all the data. The trade deficit grew in the last year, the exact opposite of what President Trump wanted.

Starting point is 00:07:55 The U.S. manufacturing jobs declined by 80,000 jobs last year. That's the opposite of what Trump wanted with his tariffs. And then on Friday, the Fed's preferred inflation report said that prices actually rose 3% in December, not what anyone wanted. A reminder yet he's. From the beginning of this whole drama, tariffs made the Great Depression worse. So for 80 years, it's been a toxic policy, and this data shows why. Now, the president says he will double down an institute legal tariffs to replace these illegal ones. But we hope he uses the Supreme Court's ruling as an off-ramp. It's a cover to quit a losing policy. For our second story, Nestle is selling off its legendary ice cream business for $1.3 billion just after Unilever spun off their ice cream

Starting point is 00:08:39 too. Why does every big food company hate their ice cream? When every human loves their ice cream? What's going on? We had to jump into the scoop. We got the scoop. But first, Jack, next time you come over, I'm serving you an ice cream omacase. Are you ready for this? Is that like a like a chef's menu? Yeah, it's like an 11-course chef's choice tasting menu for the gelato. I got you know, we got it salt and straw, Van Lewin, Jenny's, Fortune. I got, it's a gelato tasting menu for you, my friend. You are a very generous sweet tooth. I will blindfold you.

Starting point is 00:09:08 But second, most importantly, Eddie's the world's biggest food business, Nestle, is worth $250 billion. They're the second biggest ice cream scoop around Earth. They own drumstick, hogandahs, and four other brands doing $1.3 billion of global ice cream sales. But Nestle just said, no, I do not want to see the dessert menu. Nestle announced they're selling off all six of their ice cream brands for $1.3 billion. billion dollars to another company that they actually co-own.

Starting point is 00:09:36 Should point out, you can't get rid of ice cream completely. Just ask anyone who's made that like a New Year's resolution, right? That's why they're selling to a company they co-own. But here's what Jack and I find fascinating. It ain't just Nestlead ditching the ice cream these days. Last year, Unilever, the world's biggest ice cream company, spun off their ice cream business too. I think the financial term for that, Jack, is banana split.

Starting point is 00:09:56 That's what the bankers say. They called their ice cream company Magnum. And now it's a $9 billion publicly traded ice cream. cream stock. They own Talente, Klondike, and Ben and Jerry's. What we are looking at when you add it all up, Besties, is the great ice cream exit. The game of cones. I scream, you scream, but Jack, who screams for the ice cream? I mean, I do and you do. Yeah, we do. We actually, both of us do. So, Besties, this is what we want to dig into today. What is with this trend of companies spitting out their ice cream businesses, big ones? Because it's not just financial. It feels personal. The leaders of

Starting point is 00:10:30 Nestle said last week, they think their ice cream. Ice cream lines are annoying. I mean, we were shocked by this, but one executive called ice cream a strong business, but a, quote, distraction. And includes bothersome idiosyncrasies that they don't want to deal with anymore. So, Jack and I dove in T-boy style, and honestly, when you see the numbers, you see what they mean. Like, there are issues with ice cream like hard, rotten blobs of cookie dough.

Starting point is 00:10:52 First, the ice cream business is as seasonal as it gets. So seasonal. Half the year, you basically got to give ice cream away. And then the other half the year, you're dealing with a shortage of the stuff. Second, the supply chain of ice cream? Complicated. I mean, Jack, refrigerated transport, that's like the rocky road of extra cost right there. You have to buy trucks that are literally gigantic freezers.

Starting point is 00:11:10 I mean, and third, the shifting taste of consumers. Oh, one year, oat milk ice cream is cool. The next year, whole milk ice cream is cool. Then we're back to pistachio milk ice cream. And these complications, they're not driven by short-term ozempic issues. These are fundamental ice cream things that have always been there. On the other hand, Jack coffee, that's a year-round business. Pet food?

Starting point is 00:11:29 year-round business. Snacks? That's a multiple times a day, year-round business. And none of them need to be refrigerated. So when you look at those comps, ice cream is complicated. It is annoying if you're looking at it

Starting point is 00:11:43 through a joyless profit lens. Which is what CFOs do. Which leads to the sprinkled, covered paradox here. Ice cream. Beloved by kids and adults alike, hated by CFOs. Yeah, they don't hear this.

Starting point is 00:11:58 even though we all want to lick ice cream. And yes, I just said, Jack, what's takeaway for our buddies in the ice cream industry? Sometimes diversification is like rum, raisin ice cream. It just doesn't work. Okay, Eddie's hot take here. Some combos don't work like rum and raisin and ice cream. It's like the pineapple pizza of the industry.

Starting point is 00:12:17 I've never even tried it. That flavor's description sounds so intimidating. I will try everything and I like to, but I will not try that one, Jack. But the same is true in business. You can't just combine two business lines and think they'll work well together. Yeah, famously, General Electric fell apart 10 years ago because they merged too many industries. Jet engines, light bulbs, microwave ovens, NBC media. And an ice cream rink and a Christmas tree in front of their headquarters. But since splitting up those different business lines into different

Starting point is 00:12:43 companies, General Electric is now thriving as different businesses. Similarly, a giant food corporation doesn't have to make breakfast, snacks, drinks, and ice cream. And both Unilever and Nestle have now realized that there were no synergies in also owning an ice cream. business. It's a reminder that business leaders don't have to diversify every single revenue stream. Like rum and raisins and ice cream. Some flavors don't belong in the same pint. And if you got strong opinions about rum raisin, that's today's poll on Spotify. Jack, let's a commercial. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, what was that brand all over the Olympics with the three letters?

Starting point is 00:13:25 It's A, C, G, and it's actually owned by Nike. You didn't notice because there was a and a swoosh, but ACG is one of Nike's lifeboats to save the business. All right, Jack, let's whip out the birth certificates here. Who's born in the year 1989, my friend? Taylor Swift, Rob Grancowski, Joe Jonas, okay? And ACG. Which stands for all conditions gear. Nike birthed that brand to get into hiking, trail running, and mountain sports back in

Starting point is 00:13:55 1989. Basically, Nike wanted to compete with Patagonia North Face and the other brands the 18-year-old college-bound kids wear in their gap year to Mongolia. I know what you mean. Yeah, one of their first products, the Air Moab Trail Shoe launched in 1991 designed by Tinker Hadfield. Really cool hiking boot. It looks like abstract art.

Starting point is 00:14:15 It went full Jackson Pollock on this thing. Because instead of earth tones like every other hiking boot, Nike stood out in Sedona. But Nike deprioritized the outdoors in the mid-90s. They basically put away their hiking boots for good. Basically, Nike went back to their two biceps of business, running. in basketball. That's why you didn't realize Nike ever did hiking boots. Which led to the surprise ringer of the Milan Olympics. After a decade, Nike called ACG off the bench and put him in the game. Nike used these Olympics to relaunch their dormant brand. That's why you kept seeing ACG all-conditioned

Starting point is 00:14:49 gear. I mean, right? Besties? Like throughout the Olympics, athletes were wearing Nike made puffer jackets, but there was no Nike on those things. Those white jackets, you can picture them because they were worn throughout the Olympics. Instead of a swoosh on the breast, it was an ACG logo. It was a stealthy reintroduction in a setting that made sense. Peak athletic competition, mostly outdoors. Because despite global warming, ski and snowboarding

Starting point is 00:15:10 cold gear sales have never been hotter. We did a whole story out last year. Canada a goose flying north-south, east, and west. Plus, Nike regrets that they missed the trail running trend of the pandemic. Solomon, on-running, Brooks, New Balance, all of them made trail runners designed to get dirty, and they won.

Starting point is 00:15:26 Five years late to that pandemic-born trend, Nike has arrived by bringing back ACG boots. That's right. Nike, they're now doing backpacks, gloves, sneakers, even sunglasses for outdoor activities all under ACG. And this isn't Nike's first rodeo scaling a non-Nikey brand, is it, Nick? Fair point, Jack. No, it's not.

Starting point is 00:15:45 You got Jordan, you got Converse, you got Nike skims, and that's not the only context we should sprinkle on, Jack. Nike stock is still down 60% from their all-time highs. I know, I own it, I know, I know. Last week, we told you that New Balance is catching up to them. So Nike is hoping to recline the mountain by targeting the actual mountain, which leads Jack to the takeaway. What's the takeaway for our buddies doing it over at Nike?

Starting point is 00:16:10 The mole hills are calling, and I must go. You see, Yendies. Nike owns the city. Urban and streetware designs that are its bread and its butter. Patagonia, North Face and Arcteric, they own the great outdoors, parkers and sleeping bags for your sub-zero camping adventure. So here is the strategic focus. ACG is trying to fill the gap between the great outdoors and the streetwear.

Starting point is 00:16:32 Refined city looks, but for your weekend trip to the country. Basically, Nike's use an ACG to sell to Millennial Millie, who lives in New York City, but visits Vermont and Berkshires a couple times a year. Nick, it's rare to see a brand try to span two different worlds like Nike is right here. You're right, Jack, but maybe it's telling that Nike didn't start from scratch. They dipped their toe into Lake Nostalgia. It's a project they've been working on for 40 years, actually. Exactly.

Starting point is 00:16:56 Because the molehills are calling, and Nike mrs. must go. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us to kick off the week? Our first story was the $200 billion reverse Uno card. 60% of Trump's global tariffs have been deemed illegal, but the Supreme Court did not clarify the refunds. So we think the presidents used the Supreme Court's ruling as an excuse to end this bad tariff policy. For our second story, it's the ice cream exit. Nestle is following Unilever's lead, selling off their ice cream business. Ice cream, you scream, having ice cream offers no synergies in the food business. And our third of final story is Nike. They reintroduced all conditions gear, ACG at the Winter Olympics. Because the

Starting point is 00:17:35 molehills are calling and you must go there looking sharp in Nike gear. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Costco just delivered its wildest PR update yet. A gift card recall? Is that possible? The company that issues gift cards for Costco in the last few months actually went bankrupt. Yeah, we didn't know you could recall gift cards, but apparently you can and it's happening at Costco in Isle 6. So Costco will refund your gift card if you swipe it to pay for that $5 rotissory chicken and it's declined because of the bankruptcy. I'll need to speak to another manager. And second, James Cameron, the director of the Avatar movies and Terminator and Titanic, has a few thoughts. He thinks that Netflix acquiring Warner Brothers would be a disaster for the

Starting point is 00:18:20 movie theater industry on a Titanic level. Netflix says they're committed, though, to keeping movies in theaters if they do acquire Warner Brothers. But James Cameron doesn't believe them. So he urged Warner Brothers and regulators to sell to Paramount instead. And finally, the Seattle Seahawks are selling themselves for charity. And the process just began. When Seahawks owner and Microsoft co-founder, Paul Allen, died years ago, he said that he wanted this for his team. Now, we don't know who will buy the Seahawks and how many billions it will sell for,

Starting point is 00:18:49 but we do know this. The proceeds of the Seattle Seahawks sale will go to charity. Now, time for the best fact yet, which, because it's Monday, means T-Boer. trivia, and I got one for you, Jack. You do not know. You ready for this one? I'm ready. Let's go.

Starting point is 00:19:03 Okay. In the spirit of the handshake that did not happen between Sam Altman and his rival and Anthropic, it's a handshake one. And here's the question. Which American president has the record for most handshakes given in a single day? Wow. Oh, man, I can't wait to hear the answer. I have no clue.

Starting point is 00:19:21 So, Bessie, drop your answer in the comments today and we'll reveal it in tomorrow's pod. Yetis, you are looking fantastic for live T-Boy show week. Jack, you're glowing today. What are you thinking, my friend? If one of the Yetis listening is going to our live show in Austin, and you have the best fact yet? I like this. You can deliver it live on stage, but first, send it to us so we can vet it.

Starting point is 00:19:44 Yeah, yeah, yeah, send us a DM on Instagram at T-Boy pot. Jack and I will check out your fact. If you're going to the show, we may get you on stage with us. Prepare for a bear hug if you do come on stage. You know, you know, Jack and I will see in Texas. And before we go, a happy birthday to legendary Yeti, Zavian Jones in Fort Worth, Texas. Welcome to the teen years, Xavier. Happy birthday to Sean Trinidad Anbia, who has three sons, a pregnant wife, and a birthday in San Diego.

Starting point is 00:20:15 What a legend. And Kevin Medrano, happy 33rd birthday down in Friscoe, Texas. Happy birthday to Huey Snyder, turn in 8, and learning German in Spokane, Washington. Huey, speaks to Deutsch? Ah, yeah? Nishtnich. And Jackson Hall, enjoy turn in nine, and at the Detroit Tigers spring training.

Starting point is 00:20:32 We hope it gets you out in the field. Happy birthday to Melissa Vu, who's baking bread for the birthday up in Denver. And Waverly Bell, enjoy the birthday up in Kalamazoo, Michigan. And a big shout out to Caleb and Jesse. Their one-year anniversary is happening right now in Mexico City.

Starting point is 00:20:45 Como Ciddee? El Mejor hasta Ahorra? Let's roll with that, Jack. And a big shout-out to Giuliana from New Haven, Vermont, who cackles every morning to the show. She told me in person just the other day. And Glenn Kinsman just took his first Waymo ride

Starting point is 00:20:59 and had that Robotaxi turn on the T-Boy podcast. Jack, we were live in the Waymo. Hey, Siri, drive me to work and play my favorite podcast. Glenn, we'll see at the DC show, Celebrate the Wins. And to anyone else who's celebrating something today, make it a T-Boy. Celebrate the Wins. This is Jack.

Starting point is 00:21:19 I own stock of Netflix, Nick On Stock, and Nike.

The Best One Yet - 🔙 “Reverse Uno” — Tariffs’ mogging. Ice Cream’s exit. Nike’s ACG mystery. +The 1st Handshake

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.