The Best One Yet - 🍌 “Ripe $$$” — Instacart’s banana strategy. Bitcoin’s Ice Age. Kindred’s Airbnb swap. +SF Super Bowl conspiracy

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Thursday, the new Friday. February 5th in today's pot is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Besties, welcome to the Super Bowl of business. I mean, Jack, the mix is so good today. Should we jump right into it, man? For our first story. Instacart's Super Bowl hat with Ben Stiller and Benson Boone has already gone viral. Because the most sold product and food delivery is also the most controversial. The humble banana. For our second story, one Airbnb home sharing rival, Kindred, just raised $125 million of venture capital. Okay, but there's one wild twist. If you want to book a home, you have to share your home. For our third and final story, the stock markets are at all-time highs, but there are three major potholes in your portfolio. So Jack and I'll explain why software, silver, and so much crypto are dropping big right now. But yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. I mean, what a mix. Love the mix, Jack. The Super Bowl this year is just outside San Francisco, which happens to be the tech-est Super Bowl ever.

Starting point is 00:01:06 Yeah, the NFL actually took over our podcast studio in the ferry building, so I couldn't even record from there today. But there's one wild big tech conspiracy theory that merges football with Facebook. Here's the question. Are the San Francisco 49ers getting injured because of Silicon Valley data centers? Here's the evidence. 12 years ago, the 49ers moved south to Levi Stadium right near San Jose. And that newish stadium also happens to be next to a newish electrical station. And recent data shows a higher magnetic field around the football field as a result of that electrical substation. Pause the podjack because also in the last year, the 49ers football team has had the most injuries in the NFL.

Starting point is 00:01:45 Coincidence? I don't think so. If you had George Kittle on your fantasy team this year, then you know this is a conspiracy. I mean, whip out the whiteboard, the lineman tore his ACL, a defensive end broke his ankle, and QB Brock Purdy crushed a toe. last month. There's hard data to back this up. The 49ers have had twice as many Achilles injuries as the NFL average since moving into their new stadium. In fact, the Niners have been a top five most injured team 10 of the last 11 seasons they're in the new stadium. So back to the conspiracy. This stadium is in the heart of Silicon Valley during the AI boom. Jack, maybe the AI is causing injuries? They've always warned the AI could turn against us. I didn't realize they'd go for

Starting point is 00:02:24 tight ends first. It's a fair question. Is record break in AI demand also breaking ankles on the football field. Yeah, going from the AI to the IR. Hey, Niners, you can blame your last loss on chat GPT. For the Super Bowl, maybe they should unplug that station and don't plug it back in. Hey, Sam Altman, we know you're a Bears fan, man. Jack,

Starting point is 00:02:43 let's in our three stories. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm that had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%.

Starting point is 00:02:58 That's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, the one Super Bowl ad everyone is going to be talking about is Instacart. Because Instacart realized that one product, the humble banana, is the key to winning its entire industry.

Starting point is 00:03:35 Now, yeah, this week, we did a whole story on the anatomy of a Super Bowl. ad. And we actually got tagging like a bunch of LinkedIn posts about that one, Jack. A lot of people loved it. Because NBC charges $10 million for those 30 seconds, but the real cost to the brand is more like $30 million. And Bestie's the most hyped Super Bowl commercial before this year's big game. Well, it involves Benson Boone, Ben Stiller, and a banana. You see, brands like to post their Super Bowl commercial a week early these days to drive hype and make sure nothing's wrong with it that they didn't expect. They're checking the comment section during the week and making sure they're not getting canceled by the time the Super Bowl runs around.

Starting point is 00:04:09 They're like, oh, shoot, we should probably pull it from the Super Bowl because we didn't realize we offended those people. So, these early Super Bowl ads have been preheating before the game, and this one from Instacart already racked up 3 million views on YouTube. Ben Stiller and Benson Boone are an 80s-Europe dancing brotherly duo. And Ben Stiller is jealous of his younger Benson Booms moves at vocals. They argue they fight, they fall, and the whole thing basically goes bananas. Ben Stiller attempts multiple backflips.

Starting point is 00:04:35 But pause the podjack. I'm sorry, is that not the key? Because you want to share the trivia? You want to share the trivia with the eddies? Well, guess what's the most ordered thing on Instacart? It's bananas. In fact, Instacart delivered 1.8 billion bananas last year, by far their most popular product.

Starting point is 00:04:51 But bananas are also their most controversial product. Because when we dove in T-Boy style to the numbers, turns out Instacart customers have left 32 million notes on what kind of bananas they prefer. When it comes to a banana order, we're all micromanagers, apparently. Like, I'm having oatmeal tomorrow, so please only get us yellow bananas. I need to eat them now. Oh, you'll type into the Instacart. I'm traveling this weekend. Please grab me the greenest bananas on the shelf. Jack, you know, my famous banana bread. You know, if I'm making banana bread, I got to have those brown, mushy, disgusting, sugary sweet bananas.

Starting point is 00:05:22 So the banana is the hero product of Instacart. You didn't realize it. But ripeness for customers, that's a ritual. Because here's what we find fascinating. It's not just Instacart and it's not just bananas. Turns out food preferences are the biggest friction point in grocery delivery. If you check out Reddit right now, you'll find a number of conspiracy theories, actually, that grocery stores are intentionally kind of screwing delivery customers with the ripeness situation. Actually, the strategy kind of makes sense if you're a grocery store. That, you know, stores would use delivery orders to offload unpopular items that are not selling because you can't return them.

Starting point is 00:05:55 And you've probably had this frustration when you've gotten groceries delivered before. Yeah, you got grocery delivery with nearly expired milk, or a bad cut of salmon or my personal pet peeve, not a big fan of, the avocados as hard and as dark as a grenade. That's the grocery store foisting the product that in-person shoppers won't buy. And you should know this, Besties, but Jack has had a drama with a bad chicken breast delivery that you still haven't recovered from. I ordered a whole chicken, which was 10 pounds, for like $30. You see what I'm talking about? Anyway, Besties, that is why Instacart is built an entire feature around this banana-snobbery pain point.

Starting point is 00:06:30 It's called the produce picker. You can now choose your banana preferences with one tap of the button as you're ordering. Yellow, green, or brown, and that is what the Super Bowl ad is really getting at. That's why they hired Ben Stiller and told them to do backflips. Because interestingly, it turns out bananas, like diapers, are an anchor product. Whoever wins your banana order is going to win your whole shopping cart. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Instacart? The best way to grow is to retain.

Starting point is 00:06:57 Yaddies, here's the real surprise about this Super Bowl ad, involving banana ripeness preferences. They're not speaking to potential Instacart customers in the commercial as much as they're speaking to existing customers. This begs the question, like why drop 10 million bucks on an ad for customers you already have the business of? Here's why, Nick, you can't scale a leaky boat. Exactly. The cheapest customer to win is the one you already have. You see, acquiring customers, that gets the headlines, but retaining them, that pays the bills. That's why Instacart is perfecting the humble 30-cent banana order because the best way to grow is to retain. For our second story, Gindrid is a home-swapping concept. It's the movie The Holiday, but scaled,

Starting point is 00:07:42 Silicon Valley style. And they just raised $125 million to build what's basically the hinge dating app, but for home-swapping. Oh, my Eddie's and we're going to tell the story. Let's start with our favorite musical icon, the one, the only, Hans Zimmerjack. Boom. Yeah, it's known for his heavy-hitting sound effects that basically shake your living room in your entire neighborhood. Your subwuffer has never been the same. Well, the legendary musician Hans Zimmer also did the original score for The Holiday, a lovely Christmas rom-com. And what Cameron Diaz and Kate Winslet do in the holiday, that's the business model of the subject of this story, Kindred. Exactly, because Kindred has signed up 300,000 humans for home swapping. Oh, that's a fraction of Airbnb, but wait to you hear the details. Every guest on Kindred must also be a host. It's a swap situation. And that's why this business

Starting point is 00:08:34 is like this movie. Cameron Diaz let Kate Winslet stay at her Los Angeles house, but then Cameron Diaz got to stay in Kate Winslet's Cotswalt's cottage. So no cash is exchanged, just keys are exchanged. And you book a stay with credits, but you only get the credits once you start hosting your own house. The only money that does get exchanged is the cleaning fee and the service fee, which both go to Kindred. Which leads to the news. Kindred just raised 125 months. million bucks to scale their business into social networks. What Nick and I found fascinating about the business model is that Kindred handles risk totally different than Airbnb and Verbo do. And that tells us everything. You know, because home swapping, it's different than short-term rentals like

Starting point is 00:09:12 Airbnb and Verbo, right, Jack? Same business, but different business model. But in each case, Nick, as a host, myself, I can tell you, you want to have some security in case the guest causes some damage. For Airbnb and Verbo, those platforms offer the host a million dollars of insurance in case anything goes wrong because so much could go wrong. It lets the host rest easy. Kindred, on the other hand, offers just $100,000 of insurance. So pause the pod jack. How are you getting way less insurance using Kindred? What does that signal to us about the product? It signals that there's trust on the kindred platform because accountability is actually built into the business model. Yeah, Yetis. Think about this. Like, since the guests are also hosts, they're more likely to follow the golden rule.

Starting point is 00:09:57 Like, thou shalt not party the way you don't want partying done unto you. Yeah, I think that's what's in the Ten Commandments, Jack, actually. Thou shalt not throw a Rager if Rager shall not be thrown onto your apartment. Plus, the guests must meet the host over a video call before confirming the booking. So, like, you can't be anonymous. But the ultimate way to instill trust in a home renting, home swapping situation? Well, Jack, that would be if you actually know the person who is staying at your place. And that's what Kindred is building next with all this VC money. That's right. They're building a hinged dating app, but for home swapping. They're building a feature to let you create a group of friends for a private home swapping network. Maybe it's for your friends, maybe it's a lump of

Starting point is 00:10:39 your college, or maybe it's Taylor Swift fans only. That could be the network. Kindred thinks that if you have a key thing in common with the other people in the house swapping network, you'll be more comfortable swapping houses with them. Jack, although full disclosure, I don't think I can do a home swapping situation. I need my stuff where my stuff is. I know that about you. One sec. One sec. I think someone just moved the remote and my car table book. I'm sorry. All right. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Kindred? Lose ties are like economic lubricant. That is, there's nothing like a referral. Like someone who vouches for someone else helps you bridge the trust gap. Referrals. They're how you find a contractor, a babysitter, a lawyer, or a new analyst.

Starting point is 00:11:20 that you just hired on your team. Entire businesses are being built to facilitate referrals and foster connections based on them. Country clubs have long required a referral to become a member. Jack, I see you know Bill Lumber. Get in a check on LinkedIn. Can you introduce? There you go. That's a referral request that happens all the time.

Starting point is 00:11:36 Or Jack, what about a hinge years ago? Remember how Hinge the dating app started? It launched with a Friends of Friends model. You could only swipe people who you have common Facebook friends with. Well, now Kindred's launched in a social network but for house-swapping. Now, there is a risk to that. Facebook could launch this feature. In fact, somehow I got added to a house-swapping Facebook group.

Starting point is 00:11:55 I'm still in it and still get notifications all the time. But still, Kindred reveals a reality. A lack of trust can be an economic killer because transactions that could happen don't happen. Referrals can bridge that trust gap. That's why loose ties are like economic lubricant. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, the three giant potholes in your portfolio. Bitcoin is down 42%, software stocks are down 32%.

Starting point is 00:12:26 Silver is down 27%. We know why software and silver have plummeted. We think we know why Bitcoin has. Yetis, the S&P 500. The index tracking the 500 biggest stocks in America. It is the Workhorse Index, baby. And it's just 1.5% off its all-time highs. That's right. The S&P 500, it basically measures the stock market overall,

Starting point is 00:12:48 and it's living its best life right now. Thanks to AI, the S&P 500 has nearly doubled since 2023. But here's the awkward contrast. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been fallen since October. And with it, crypto stocks have been fallen, too. Coinbase and Robin Hood, they're down big. And we'll explain all that in the takeaway in just like two minutes. But in the meantime, Jack, first, can we talk about the SaaSpocalypse? Software as a service, or SaaS stocks, have had their worst week since Y2K. Now let's sprinkle on some context here, yeties. Back in 2011, Mark Andresen, the legendary venture capitalist, wrote a blog post entitled, Software is Eating the World.

Starting point is 00:13:26 It references a dozen stocks that have more than 10xed since he published that blog post, mostly SaaS companies. But in 2026, Wall Street thinks that AI is eating software. And it all started with Claude Code. Claude Code, the new vibe coding software from Anthropic, showed that software can be created quickly by AI with just a few prompts. Yeah. And that undercuts the value proposition of these software as a service companies. Basically, while we were telling the story, I sent a few texts and built an app. That's what we're talking about.

Starting point is 00:13:55 So Salesforce, Oracle, PayPal, each of those was mentioned in Mark Andreessen's blog post 15 years ago. But now they're down 25% each so far this year. All right, so Nick, that explains software stocks, the soft apocalypse that's happening in the market. What about silver and its cousin gold? Why are they down?

Starting point is 00:14:13 Because the prices of precious metals doubled in the last year on the belief that President Trump would select a Fed chairman who would suck up to him. The reason, if the central bank cuts interest rates like Trump has demanded, that would potentially hurt the value of our currency. So investors bought up gold and silver as alternative stores of wealth compared to the weaker dollar. That was the thesis. That was the play. Well, the Fed Chair nominee has been selected now. It's Kevin Warsh, and he's no sycophant. No, he ain't Jack. So the same day he was nominated, gold and silver

Starting point is 00:14:45 plummeted. Basically, the investment thesis was wrong. As we mentioned yesterday, Besties, if you're looking to lock in a necklace for your lover on Valentine's Day, pause the pod, hit up Tiffany's now. Because silver is down 27% in just about a week. Okay, so Jack, we got SaaSpocalypse. We've got silver. But that leaves us with Bitcoin. Why has Ben the Bitcoin dropping like it busted its blockchain? Well, the answer is our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies looking at this mini-cry-hypto-ice age? Leverage is like playing with house money. It amplifies gains, but amplifies losses even more. Yetis, Bitcoin prices, they rose, and Bitcoin criminals got pardoned in President Trump's first year.

Starting point is 00:15:24 That's why Bitcoin had a price all-time high of $124,000. But that huge Trump bump of crypto has been erased. Bitcoin is at $73,000 right now. That's lower than the day before the election when Trump got elected. Yeti's, Bitcoin prices rose, and Bitcoin criminals got pardoned in President Trump's first year. Bitcoin was all-time highing to $124,000. But that huge Trump bump of Bitcoin has been completely erased. At $73,000 right now, Bitcoin is lower than the day before Trump got elected.

Starting point is 00:15:56 And since Bitcoin is decentralized, there's no data to explain movements like we got for stock. So they're just theories out there. And here's our theory. The reason Bitcoin is down so much is leverage. Leverage. A.k.a. investing with someone else's money. Get this.

Starting point is 00:16:10 There are platforms that let you buy $100 worth of Bitcoin with just $1 of your own money. That is huge leverage. 100x leverage, it's something that only got created for the crypto market. Driven by animal instincts, people were borrowing money to buy Bitcoin last year, driving prices up even more. And they enjoyed huge returns. But it created a bubble that inflated so big because of these leverage loans, it was bound to pop.

Starting point is 00:16:36 And when your leverage loans bet goes negative and your losses explode, that forces panic selling. And panic selling begets more panic selling from other leveraged Bitcoin investors. And after five months, cascading sale orders, Bitcoin is down to 73K. We hope this is the bottom, but nobody knows. It's leverage. Bedden with house money amplifies gains, but amplifies losses even more. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the new Friday? Instacart hired Ben Stiller to do a Super Bowl commercial to promote their produce picking feature. That's for banana snobs. Really, it's for

Starting point is 00:17:11 existing Instacart shoppers, because the best way to grow is to retain. Our second story was Kindred. They just raised $125 million to evolve their home swapping network to allow private groups. Because if you know them, you're more likely to house swap with them. And our third and final story is SaaS stocks and silver and so many crypto. They're all down big, while the stock market remains close to an all-time high. The reason bedding the Bitcoin's down? Leverage. Ben with house money makes a risky game riskier. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Anthropic, long seen as the number two AI company, is ripping on its number one rival with a Super Bowl commercial, basically a disc track. You might have heard that OpenAI is adding

Starting point is 00:17:54 ads to their chat GPT experience. So here's the Super Bowl ad. Anthropic parodied what it would be like if chat GPT starts serving you up ads with a nice big whole smile when you're like, you're asking chat GPT something and it's really excited to tell you, but it's really an ad. The takeaway, being interrupted by ads is annoying, and Anthropic is burning open AI during the Super Bowl. Exactly. And second, remember Bichon's, the Japanese barbecue sauce startup we covered last year with the octopus logo? My son Maxi actually loves that octopus logo. They just got acquired for $400 million, a nice big exit for some super nice founders. In fact, this Japanese barbecue sauce is the biggest barbecue sauce brand in America by sales. That's crazy, but it's part of a bigger

Starting point is 00:18:36 sauce trend. More of us are eating protein, so more of us need more sauce. And finally, Google dropping the big numbers. Revenue crossed 400 billion bucks in their earnings for the first time ever last year. They made $35 billion in profits in just three months, which is also a record for Google. And they're pumping all that fresh cash into building AI data centers. They planned to spend $180 billion this year on AI. You could buy 27 lifts with that much money and put them all in a waymo. Now, time for the best fact yet.

Starting point is 00:19:06 This one's sent in by LJE from lovely San Diego, a 46-year-old debt. with three kids in a Kia Carnival van. I think IKEA Carnival is borderline a minivan. It kind of looks like an SUV too. Might be perfect for Alex, to be honest. Well, yeah, there's the context. Yesterday, we did a whole story on minivan sales, surging driven by millennial dads.

Starting point is 00:19:26 We also got dozens of comments encouraging me to get a minivan, even though our family's on the fence. Nobody who buys one regrets ones, apparently. But Jack, where did the lovely minivan actually come from? The legendary car executive, Lee Ayako. Yeah, he worked at Ford, and he had this minivan idea in his head, but the Ford team didn't like it, so he left and went to Chrysler. And in 1983, he launched the world's first ever minivan. Ah, the Dodge Caravan, but there were three keys in his head that had to be in the minivan. The minivan had to be low enough for a mom to be able to climb into easily, their words, small enough to still fit inside a garage, and bigger and cooler than a station wagon.

Starting point is 00:20:06 And have 17,000 cup holders. Yetis, you look fantastic today. Jack, you are glowing over there. And by the way, the polls that we got on Spotify right now are neck and neck from the last two days. You ready for this? We asked the Yetis, martinis, shaken or stirred? Shaken is just beating stirred. Dude, the bartenders commented that stirred is actually the preferred way and that James Bond does it all wrong. Oh, and we also asked what should be the ticker symbol for SpaceX when an IPOs? What were the choices again? Triple X is beating quadruple X.

Starting point is 00:20:40 although M-A-R-S is making a comeback. So we've got another poll going for today's show. Drop your votes on Spotify, and Jack and I will see tomorrow. Before we go, a happy 35th birthday to legendary Yeti, Kenta Tanaka, over in Tokyo, Japan, who loves learning the most interesting business news stories every day, and Jack enjoys picking up our unique American English phrases.

Starting point is 00:21:07 Such as Saspocalypse, and Lily Benito over in Seattle, is crushing it in real estate with the best birthday yet. Happy birthday to Loranda in Sherman Oaks, California. This four-year Yeti is driving scarring blame to school right now. And Yvonne Laura is turning 41 years old down in beautiful DC, hope to see it the live show. And happy birthday to future veterinarian Nina Beltron, turning 15 years old in the Hague. B.U. P.P.Y. And Elijah Jerome, congrats on the first year anniversary of last year's bar mitzvah.

Starting point is 00:21:39 And a shout out to Zach Levy, whose legendary mom worked at Zebra, the company we covered yesterday about the Super Bowl. And happy second anniversary to Sam and Kim, who at their friend's wedding in Puerto Rico. Their big day will be coming soon. And Brittany Barbosa loved our story on the anatomy of a Super Bowl ad. She's been sharing it across LinkedIn. Thank you, Brittany. And Jack, one final shout out to legendary Yeti, Luke Welch from Cobble Hill, Brooklyn, who's in town in San Francisco for the Super Bowl.

Starting point is 00:22:05 I got out of a Waymo. He walked by me. And we ended up shaking hands saying hi, and he's having a blast right now. So enjoy your time after all the snow. And to anyone else celebrating something, Today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack.

Starting point is 00:22:21 I own stock of Lyft, and Nick and I both on stock of Airbnb and Robin Hood and ETFs of the S&P 500, as well as some Bitcoin. Bitcoin. Name Ben.

The Best One Yet - 🍌 “Ripe $$$” — Instacart’s banana strategy. Bitcoin’s Ice Age. Kindred’s Airbnb swap. +SF Super Bowl conspiracy

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.