The Best One Yet - 👄 “SmileDirectFlub” — SmileDirectClub’s shutdown. Pinterest’s Trend Forecast. Shohei Ohtani’s $700M economy.

Episode Date: December 12, 2023

SmileDirectClub hit a $9B valuation by cutting out the dentalman… but it just shut down — The lesson? Some industries simply aren’t tech. And prob never will be.Pinterest uses data to predict next years trends, and they’re right 80% of the time —  The 2024 predictions say we’re not waiting for milestones, we’re celebrating inch-stones.And Shohei Otani’s spot in the Dodgers lineup costs a record $700M — But the true value of Shohei Otani isn’t on the field, it’s in tourism. And Japan.$PINS $SDCCQSubscribe to our newsletter: tboypod.com/newsletterWant merch, a shoutout, or got TheBestFactYet? Go to: www.tboypod.comFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on Youtube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Tuesday, Teen Boy, Tuesday, December 12th. And today's pod is the best one yet. It's the top three pop business news stories you need to know today. My Yetis, Jack and I got to share some news with you, don't we, Jack? This is our last week of podcast before the holidays. It's our final week of pods before our annual holiday break.

So we're going to make sure these next shows are our best shows yet. Because Jack and I got a letter in the mail. Apparently all the reindeer's are Yeties, man. They listen to our pod mid-slay ride, Nick. You know, besties, we can't just disappoint Prancer or dancer. Or comment or Blitzen, actually. Nick, I heard the elves were considering going on strike. I think they're considered UPS employees, Jack, so they're getting paid pretty well.

Either way, we're making this final week of regular pods the best ones yet. In the meantime, Jack, what are our three stories for today's T-boy? For our first story, Pinterest. Pinterest just shared the most unexpected style trends we need to expect next year. So Jack and I need to talk about aquaculture, cafe core, and eclectic grandpas. For our second story, it's Smile Direct Club. This techie teeth company that mailed you a liners once has completely shut down. They were supposed to disrupt braces, but instead they disrupted customers.

And our third and final story, baseball phenom Shohei Otani signed with the LA Dodgers in the biggest deal in sports history. Yeties, to understand the Otani effect, we're looking at least. at the Ichero impact. But yet is, before we hit that fantastic mix of stories. Wonderful mix of stories. Love the mix today, Jack. Like we said at the top, this is our final week of pods before the T-Boy holiday.

But, Jack, we have a big idea we need to share with you. While we're on vacation next week, we're going to whip up five bonus pods for you. Five golden rings. I mean, five bonus pods, five bonus pods. We're going to whip up five extra episodes that capture the best. best stories that made up the year. Jack, can you whip up the context for us over that? We're crafting these five episodes to cover five special themes and five special industries.

Ladies, it's like a box set collection for you to enjoy on your holiday occasion. Because it's been a long year. We've produced over 200 episodes of T-Boy this year. Jack, that's over 600 stories this year. Probably 900 profit puppies. Don't even get us started on the cookie crisps. Let these bonus pods for next week. They're going to be the best ones yet.

Of the best. one yet. Literally. So as Nick and I are prepping these bonus pods, we need to know something from you. Yeties, which were your favorite topics of this year? Vesties, what was your favorite takeaway of 2023? And what was that one story that you paused the pod pinged your buddy Timmy and said, hey, you are not going to believe what Darlene from Duncan just did. Was it the eggflation situation? Was it the fratatifiasca? Or was it when TikTok was too lit to prohibit? Or was it Airbnb's party pooper with a purpose. Or maybe, just maybe, it was the economic impact of dinks. Double income, no kids with a dog, and some succulents. We want to crowdsource from you what stories to put in these bonus pods.

So here's what you got to do. Yetis, hit us up at T-Boy Pod to share your favorite stories of 2023. Comment on our post on Instagram or X with your favorite episode from the year. The best ones yet of the best one yet. Thanks for helping us whip up the winners for next week. I think, Jack, it's like, Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us? can you whip up the bonus episode stories for us? Yeah, and we want you to do it today on T-Boy Tuesday. Happy T-Boy Tuesday. Hit us up at T-Boy Pod and Jack.

Let's hit our three stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea that cost a cultural 50%. That's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

For our first story, Pinterest just shared the unexpersearched. expected style trends to expect next year. Whether you're a car company or a cake company, these are the five style forecasts you need to know. But Jack, if we're going to talk about Pinterest for a second, can we talk about the top performing stock sectors this year? It's not the big tech stocks. No.

It's medium tech. Oh, it's medium tech. For example, our buddies over at Pinterest, right, Jack? Yeah, it is. If you work at a medium tech company, DM us, we want to know where you're working. Oh, we love medium tech. It's a great place to be. Pinterest is like a wonderful example of a medium-sized tech.

It's a safe space for scrolling picks. Yeah, you're going to pin that armour that you probably should have already bought, but you keep delaying because you keep amassing pictures of armoires. You're going to share with your significant other, that distress shiplap you'd love to put up in the kitchen. Yeah, your wedding font was inspired by a Pinterest board. But it's not just us. There's 482 million monthly active users on Pinterest.

That is a huge number. Jack, could you sprinkle on some social media. context for us over there. That's half as many users as TikTok, but it's more users than LinkedIn. Oh, and Yetis, guess what? Pinterest stock has been one of the top performing stocks of 20203, hasn't it, Jack? Pinterest, the internet's destination for creative inspiration is up 55% so far this year. It's now worth $24 billion, that's six lifts. So Yetis, when Pinterest shares their trend forecast based on your Pinterest searches? And Pinterest audience has gotten to 480 million monthly active users.

We listen and we present that story on the show. Because Jack and I have jumped in T-boy style and we discovered that over the last four years, 80% of Pinterest prediction trends have actually come true. So Nick and I are basically 80% sure. We're about to tell you the future. Yes, we are. So yeties, there actually are 20 different Pinterest predictions. But Jack and I, we curated the top five, we think.

Right, Jack? What do we got? The first forecast is in fashion. And that Pinterest forecast is eclectic grandpa. Ecclactic grandpa. Pinterest thinks Gen Z grandkids are going to rock their inner opa next year. They think you're going to pop the pleats the way your grandfather used to wear on the shuffleboard down in Fort Lauderdale. Yeah, picture chic cardigans or retro streetwear from back in the day. It's like Del Boca Vista meets Soho.

That's what you're going to be wearing next year, Yeties. And Pinterest has the data to prove it. But it's not just fashion. The next Pinterest prediction is about your home. Isn't it, Jack? And the home trend for next year is Cafe Core. Cafe Core. Like, you're going to create a coffee station to espresso yourself through actual espresso.

Yeah, you are. There's early signs on Pinterest that people want to put chalkboards up in their kitchen with, like, what's brewing today? Like if they were a coffee shop. It's basically like you're turning your kitchen into a mini Starbucks. Darlane's going to love this, Jack. They're replacing their old Mr. Coffee machine with fancy Mr. Cappuccino, too. Because coffee bar searches on Pinterest are up.

thousand percent in the last year. Okay, over in food, what's the trend for next year, according to Pinterest? Jack, I'm glad you asked. The trend for 2024 is tropical treats. In a year of stress, people are going to crave sunscreen-scented nostalgia and the escapism of the island. So what kind of stuff can we expect when we go to restaurants and cafes, Jack? Hybiscuous pink prints and a hunger for Hawaiian mottails. Jack, can I share with you a data point I didn't tell you about earlier? I think you're going to like. It's about pineapple smoothies. It turns out pineapple coconut smoothies have jumped 70% in searches on Pinterest. Oh, yay. Awesome for me. No, I know. Awesome for you. I thought you'd be excited. And finally, what is Pinterest forecasted trend in finance? Credit card

cutification. Gen Z is turning their credit card into like their own personal unique artwork. Okay, we were shocked by this. Apparently, Besties, there has been a 140% surge in searches on Pinterest for credit card stickers. People are decorating their credit card to cover up like that Chase logo and put on their favorite brand with a sticker instead. Pinterest thinks that credit card companies are going to offer customized cards instead of like your classic corporate card. Pinterest thinks MasterCard is going to get a makeover next year. And you're going to do it by bedazzling that card. Now again, all of those trends, Nick and I, just mentioned are supported by data of what people have been searching for on Pinterest.

But yeties, the fifth and final trend, Jack and I think it's the most exciting and the most relevant. So we made it our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Pinterest? The theme of next year isn't milestones. It's inchstones. Yaddies, consumers aren't just waiting to celebrate wins these days. They're celebrating mini wins. They're celebrating inchstones. And that's a mindset and an opportunity every industry needs to know. Customers aren't waiting a year to reach a milestone like a birthday or an anniversary. They're celebrating inchstones like half birthdays or their meetaversary. They're not just doing a baby shower and a gender reveal party.

You're doing a name reveal party as well for that little Bambino. Searches for monthly milestones on Pinterest are up 90% compared to last year. They're seeing parents search for potty training parties twice as much as they did a year ago. If you share your promotion on LinkedIn, they can figure you should celebrate that with a promotion party too. So besties the way jack and i see it whether you're a hotel company, a tech company or even a car company, that insight, it is actionable. Because based on Pinterest data, 2024 is going to be the year of celebrating tiny triumphs. You're not just waiting for milestones. You're hitting the inch stones too. Which is why Nick and I want to celebrate.

This is our 1,100 second podcast. Woo-hoo! Get this guy of pineapple smoothie. Or our second story. Smile Direct Club, the disruptor of teeth straightening is, get this, officially shutting down. Instead of disrupting orthodontists, Smile Direct Club is now disrupting their own customers. Yeties, let's go back to 2019. Back when Jack used to only get one Christmas tree, not two Christmas trees, Jack and I covered the Smile Direct Club IPO.

It was a simple pitch. We will straighten your teeth for one third of the price of an orthodontist. to visit that orthodontist office. Just chop into this mold, send it into Smile Direct Club, and they'll send you an invisible red liner. They didn't cut out the middleman. They cut out the dental man. They disrupted the orthodontist.

Over on the Upper East Side, Dr. Lumpchin was not happy about this. The American Dental Association did not like Smile Direct Club either, and they didn't trust their dental practices. And yet, Smile Direct Club went public at a whopping $9 billion valuation back in 2019. But in four years since, they never once made money. So a few months ago, they declared bankruptcy. And just yesterday, Smile Direct Club took it one step further and did what exactly, Jack? On Monday, they shut down completely.

The website, it just greets you with an announcement that they're not in business anymore. Yeah, it is. If you're incisors encroaching on your canine, Smile Direct Club is not sending you a new retainer. But here's the worst part of Smile Direct Club's downfall. Yeah, he's kind of a funny thing. Jack and I noticed that there is one department over at Smile Direct Club that is still operating, isn't it, Jack? The whole building is closed except the payments department. Ah, the payments department.

Customers who are on an installment plan, so they're like halfway through their teeth straightening, they have to keep paying even though their treatment will never get completed by Smile Direct Club. Yes, if you're halfway through moving your molars with Smile Direct Club right now, the only thing they're telling you to do is like go and talk to your, local dentist instead. Go and talk to your local dentist, but you still owe us the amount on your balance. Oh, and by the way, that local orthodontist, that's who Smile Direct Club is trying to disrupt. Yeah. This isn't a middle finger to customers. It's a middle tooth. Yeah. And actually, it's not the first time we've seen some crookedness over at Smile Direct Club, is it, Jack?

According to a lawsuit filed against Smile Direct Club, they force all their customers to sign an NDA at the beginning, baked into those terms and conditions you probably didn't even read. So besties, if you're unhappy with your Smile Direct Club teeth straightening, you're actually legally forbidden from saying so publicly. That's why the website has only positive rave reviews. Yeah, it's only five stars. All the one through four star reviews were forbidden from being published. And yet, you sit down, stand up and shut your mouth again because that is not even the most ironic part of Smile Direct Club. Nick and I went to Smile Direct Club's website.

Here is verbatim, two sentences at the bottom of the web page. Okay, there's a frequently asked question, which is, what is happening to the lifetime smile guarantee of Smile Direct Club? And here's the response. Effective immediately, the lifetime smile guarantee no longer exists. Smile Direct Club, maybe the worst thing that happened to teeth since Laffy Taffy. So, Jack, open up. What's the takeaway her eyes or a smile recl?

2023 is taught us a lesson. Some things simply aren't tech and probably never will be. Yeties, this year, we noticed that there was a limit to tech disruption. Because look at all the disruptors out there that went bankrupt in 2023. Yeah, WeWorks bankruptcy showed us that office buildings are not tech. Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy showed us that banks are not tech. And Smile Direct Club's bankruptcy has showed us that orthodontists are not tech. What's the consistent theme here, Nick?

Well, it's that they frame their businesses as tech, even though their business models fundamentally were not. Because technology is a meal. It's not just a seasoning you could sprinkle on top of a brick and mortar's business. It's technology. It's not paprika. So the next company that says, we're going to disrupt blank through technology, we should all be skeptical of that idea. And that is the lesson from 2023. Some businesses just aren't tech and probably never will be. For our third and final story, the Los Angeles Dodgers just signed Shohei Otani to the biggest deal in sports history.

So we're going to bust out the analyst report on the biggest athletic paycheck ever. Now, yet he's in order for us to tell this story. Jack, what do you think about kicking it off by sprinkling on some context? I remember 20 years ago because I was a big baseball fan back then. Arod signed the biggest deal that had ever been signed, $25 million for 10 years. Alex Rodriguez signed a deal with the Texas Rangers for $25 million a year, and everyone was like, could not believe it. Well, Shoha Tani is signing a deal worth almost $3.3.000. three times that much.

Baseball pitcher Shohei Otani is just signed a deal worth $700 million. He's going to get paid $70 million a year every year for 10 years. Now, yet is if you don't know Shohei, you should know Showtime Shoayotani, shouldn't you, Jack? 29 years old, born in Oshu, Oat, Japan, he's the best player since the babe. So Shoaheotani is moving across town from the Los Angeles Angels to the Los Angeles Dodgers. And Jack, can we break down what exactly is in this paycheck, man? Well, his 70 million a year is more than the entire payrolls of seven different MLB teams. We repeat yet, these seven different teams are paying all of their players less money than Shohei Otani.

A single human being is taken home. I guess there is an eye in team. Jack, we have not seen an athlete get paid this much since the gladiators of ancient Rome. Inflation adjusted, of course. This is Caesar money, Jack. This is Caesar money. But yet is this isn't a sports pot, it's a business pot. Right. And Jack and I, we haven't done free agent signings, but we have done merger and acquisition

signings. Which is nice, because this contract for Shohei Otani, it's sprinkled with synergies that would make a banker at Lazard weep. It is the way Jack and I see it. If the Los Angeles Dodgers are a business, then you want more revenue and less cost. And Shohei Otani is an asset that does both. First, Shohei Otani offers revenue synergies. to the Dodgers. Okay, here's what we're thinking. With Shohei Otani on this baseball team, the Dodgers are now the immediate favorite to win the World Series. And that's going to attract other players to want to join. They want to ring too. And that kind of network effect,

that is going to help the Dodgers bring in more revenue. And then on the other side, Otani helps with the costs. Ah, the cost synergies, because Shohei Otani is a two-time MVP winner since he plays both ways. Shoah is both the home run hitter who also, pitches. He's two players and one. Bogo buy one, get one free. It looks like the Dodgers got themselves a two for one deal, Jack. The HR team's going to be thrilled that hiring this batter means there's one pitcher they don't have to hire. So yet he's Shohei Otani. He's bringing revenue synergies and cost synergies to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Although the buy one is a very expensive one before they get one free.

But the real value here actually has nothing to do with the baseball diamond. The real value of Shohei Otani to the Dodgers has to do with an airport terminal. So, Jack, can you take us out to the takeaway? What's the takeaway for our buddies over at the Los Angeles Dodgers? Overnight, the Dodgers just became Japan's baseball team. Besties get this. One Japanese professor over at Kenzai University calculated the annual impact to the city of Los Angeles by signing Shohei Otani.

It's $437 million per year. year. 437 million a year because Shoay Otani is beloved in his home country of Japan. And Japan happens to be the third largest economy in the world. Japan loves baseball and their favorite player now plays for the LA Dodgers. So the Dodgers stand to make big money selling TV rights to their games over in Japan. But that's not going to be enough for a lot of Japanese fans. Many will fly to L.A. to see Shohani in person. That is why the annual economic impact of Shohay Otani on the Dodgers, is worth $437 million a year. And if you don't believe those huge numbers,

we saw something similar when Ichero came to the United States 20 years ago. Ichero was a Japanese player 20 years ago who came and played on the Seattle Mariners. And his economic impact on Seattle was so big, the U.S. Embassy called it the Ichero effect. So the true ROI for Shohei has nothing to do with baseball. It has all to do with tourism. Because overnight, the LA Dodgers just became Japan's baseball tea. Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us for T-Boy Tuesday?

Pinterest predicts we're in for eclectic grandpa and credit card cutification next year. And we're not waiting for milestones. We're celebrating the inchstones. For our second story, Smile Direct Club has shut down their operations. But they're going to keep collecting payments from customers. In 2023, we realized a simple fact. Some industries just aren't tech. and they probably never will be.

And our third and final story, Shohay Otani's spot in the Dodgers lineup brings revenue and cost synergies. And it's also bringing over 400 million bucks a year to the city of Los Angeles. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Macy's stock jumped 20%

because a private equity firm offered to buy all of Macy's for $5.8 billion. Macy's is trying to sell you holiday shopping. they're also trying to sell themselves. It's like the return policy on a whole store, Jack. For our second story, it's bright line. The Amtrak competitor connecting Los Angeles with Las Vegas

just got a major federal grant. They're connecting Los Angeles and Vegas by train because driving is too far, but flying is too short. And finally, White Claw. The pioneer of Spike Celtzer is doing a pivot. Non-Spiked Celtzer. White Claw is launching an electrolyte-filled non-alcoholic sparkling

seltzer, also known as Seltzer. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Nick Jones from lovely Katie, Texas. Last week, we mentioned the Alaska purchase in 1867. America,

we bought Alaska for $7 million bucks from the Russian's greatest real estate deal of all time. Full stop. But most of us don't realize how truly large that plot of land we bought was. Jack, can you grab a polar bear and sprinkle on some context for us over there, please? Nick, Alaska is 20% the size of the entire contiguous U.S.

Jack, if we're going to understand the size of Alaska, can you put it in Rhode Island terms for us, please? Yeah, Alaska is 550 Rhode Islands. Yeah, he's the biggest state and the lower 48 is the state of Texas. Alaska is more than twice as big as Texas. Yeah, like, don't mess with Texas. Definitely do not mess with Alaska. And don't mess with those polar bears either. Maybe mess with Rhode Island.

No, come on. Somebody from Rhode Island, no way. You don't want to mess to Rhode Island either. Don't mess with anybody. That's the takeaway. That's the takeaway. Yetis, you look fantastic for T-Boy Tuesday. And remember, we want to know on Instagram and on X,

what was your favorite T-Boy of the year? What was your favorite story this year? Help us select the stories that captured 2023 for the best one yet. Maybe it was hot Zuck Summer. Maybe it was the crock and stocks. I did love it when you wore the Birkenstocks during the Birkenstock IPO for the crock and stock. For each episode, we're trying to pick one story from the first quarter, one from the second

quarter, and one from the third quarter. No pressure, but we're whipping up. The best ones yet with your best one yet. Hit us up at Teaboy Pot. Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. If you know, you know. Before we go, a happy birthday to Dan Katz from the Boogie Down Bronx, now living in Brooklyn. Check, this guy's lived in every borough except for Staten Island.

You know how they named Staten Island. How did they name it? It was a foggy day, and a Dutch settler was on the tip of Manhattan. And he looked in the clouds and he said, Stockn Island? Dan, we know you're going to use that for your birthday party. And a happy birthday to Laura Donna Pepe from Venezuela. Listening in California, never missed a day of the pod.

Happy birthday to Jesse Colzo, celebrating their 27th just like their 17th, watching Hunger Games. And Lauren Finlayson just got a new job in the court system of Michigan. objection. Lauren rests her case. And Kate Skidari just ordered a T-boy shirt. We changed her address for her and we're so happy you're going to get this thing, Kay. You're going to like the way you look. We guarantee it. This is Jack. Nick and I both on stock of Airbnb. But if you have to choose Rhode Island over a line.