The Best One Yet - 👻 “Spirit Christmas” — Spirit Halloween’s santa spinoff. Bogg Bag’s suburban boom. Hurricane Milton’s economics.

Episode Date: October 9, 2024

Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksListen free anywhere you get your pods starting Oct 15th (or early and ad-free on Wondery+).Episodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.Spirit Halloween sells 16% of America’s Halloween costumes… now it’s pivoting to Christmas.As Hurricane Milton heads for Florida… one industry is taking it most seriously.The Bogg Bag has become the best-selling bag in America… by copying Crocs.Plus, we’ll reveal the 1st episode of our new show The Best Idea Yet… It’s the untold story behind the McDonald’s Happy Meal.$TGT $GNRC $SPY—-----------------------------------------------------GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Wednesday, Wednesday, October 9th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. And we just touched down in lovely Los Angeles. Lovely Jack, look at fantastic over there. Is it gluten? Are you going gluten free on this trip? Are you serious, man? Dude, I saw a GI last week. Yeah, yeah. My system's been a little irregular. So we're testing out withdrawing gluten. I made us reservations at Felix. pasta restaurant in Santa Monica. I thought you said L.A. didn't have gluten. Everything is gluten-free here, Jack. You'll be fine. In the meantime, three fantastic stories for today's show. What have we got on the project? For our first story, Spirit Halloween,

sells one out of five of the Halloween costumes in America. But now Spirit Halloween is launching a spin-off chain, Spirit Christmas. For our second story, Hurricane Milton is bearing down on Florida as we speak. It's the biggest hurricane to hit the state in 19 years. But only one industry is really paying attention to the hurricane economy. And our third and final story is the best-selling bag in America right now. Wild story. It's the bog bag.

The bog bag. And the bog bag pulled it off by copying crocs. A bag, zucked crocs. But yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Fantastic mix of stories for Cevice Wednesday, Jack. Yesterday, we told you about the new show that we launched. The best idea yet. The untold origin stories of the products you're obsessed with.

A weekly deep dive on the most viral products of all time. Episode number one is epic. And it drops worldwide next Tuesday. It's also available early if you're a Wondery Plus subscriber. That episode, it's delicious. Oh, it's fantastic. And why is it so delicious and fantastic, Jack? Because it's about the Happy Meal.

The Happy Meal. The McDonald's Happy Meal is the best-selling meal of all time. It's truly the first meal to ever go viral. The Happy Meal is so big, it makes McDonald's one of the biggest toy decisions. distributors in the world. Sorry, Mattel the hamburger. He's bigger than Barbie. But here's the wildest part. The Happy Meal was actually invented by a mother of five in Guatemala. That's right. In this story, we look at the Happy Meal, which wasn't the work of Ronald McDonald's. It wasn't grimace. It wasn't some R&D lab over at corporate. And now the Happy Meal was invented by the owner of Guatemala's very first McDonald's. A mom of five who looked at the restaurant and its customers different than any other McDonald's. And now the happy meal was invented by the owner of Guatemala's very first McDonald's. A mom of five, who looked at the restaurant and its customers different than any other McDonald's. It's an incredible. It's a shocking. No one knows about this true story. And it's episode one of our new show, The Best Idea Yet. The McDonald's Happy Meal. The first episode of our new series drops next Tuesday. So make sure to click the link in today's episode description to follow and subscribe to the show.

You know, honestly, you could give us five stars already in a rating and review. We're happy to take it even if you haven't heard it yet. Let's round up on that one. Not too shabby. Click the link in today's episode description so you can listen to the best idea yet. In the meantime, we've got three fantastic. stories for today's tea boy jack let's get it no gluten 15 years before this song two boys from the northeast met in the dorm they had an idea that caused a cultural storm it's the best one yet but the best is an norm jack nick that's it i don't even think they need to practice 50% that's a fat tip tea boy city on your at list if you know you know because we're ready to go we can't wait no Oh, so just start the show.

Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. Our first story. Spirit Halloween is making its scariest move yet. Spirit Christmas. Can Spirit's unique retail model work for a completely different holiday? That is the question. But yet is Jack, I'm checking the calendar here.

And October 9th, that means 22 days to Halloween. Costume anxiety is kicking it. That some freaky foam. Are you going as a sexy spreadsheet? Are you going as Frank from finance? Or the werewolf of Wall Street. I know what you're going as this year, Jack. What?

A cookie crisp creeper. But Moody's report that Spirit Halloween sells 16% of all Halloween costumes in America. That's like one out of five costumes. That's not big market share. That is monster market share. And in just this year, Spirit Halloween opened 1,500 locations of their store. That is the most ever for this pop-up.

up retailer. Jackie, sprinkle on a little more scary context, please. 1500 Spirit Halloween locations is three times as many locations as Whole Foods. It's twice as many locations as Alta Beauty, and it's almost as many locations as Target. Which leads to the question how? Does Spirit Halloween sell an estimated $650 million worth of merchandise in just a couple months? We call it zombie retail. Zombie retail. Because Spirit Halloween takes out just a three-month lease in some empty storefront that's not being used. used. We discussed this before. Bed bath and beyond is gone. Spirit just slips on in. Oh yeah, that old Kmart on Route 7 classic. It's now a Spirit Halloween. Zombie retail. What was dead

becomes the undead for just three months of the year. But here's the news yetis. Spirit Halloween is expanding that same model to a new holiday Christmas. Yeah. Spirit Halloween just confirmed that they're opening 10 Spirit Christmases this year, mostly in the Northeast. I think this is the clot of like three Tim Bird movies, Jack. Am I right? Right? Like, yeah. Scary Christmas. Exactly. The night memory for Halloween. Yet he's a life-sized gingerbread village will greet you at the Spirit Christmas. Every Spirit Christmas will have a photo shoot area with a real Santa Claus. And an entire aisle dedicated just to inflatables. Because it's not Christmas without 12 blow-up reindeer in your neighbor's front guard. Now the first Spirit Christmas opens on October 18th. They will all be open by the month of November.

Before Thanksgiving. This is a classic example of, Christmas creep. Oh, classic jack. But why is Speer Halloween trying to pull off this holiday pivot jack? Because of this wild statistic. We cross-reference this, in fact, checked it like three times. American spend an estimated $1 trillion a year on Christmas. One trillion dollars is a huge chunk of our GDP. That's like four or five percent of our GDP, just on the Christmas holiday. In fact, holiday spending for Christmas is a hundred times bigger than Halloween spending. So with that kind of market opportunity, Spirit Halloween is pivoting. There's zombie retail to, I don't know, North Pole retail.

That abandoned Forever 21 store is about to become a hastily made Santa's workshop. But Nick, can a brand so associated with Halloween really pivot to a holiday with the opposite vibes? Once that, Jack, watch out. I think Spirit Halloween is moving into our podcast studio right now. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Spirit Christmas? Just like our English teachers told us, behind every good idea is a great thesis. Yetis, Spirit isn't a store.

Spirit is a thesis. It's a real estate thesis that works. Spirit Halloween only opens a new location if that location checks three specific real estate boxes. First, it must be a three-month lease for that location over 5,000 square feet, no exceptions. Second, it must have a population of at least 35,000 people living within a three-mile radius of the store.

And third, and this is the best one, 25,000 cars must drive by that location every single day. Because that sign on Route 7, it's Spirit Halloween's only marketing. Now, that thesis has worked, and Spirit thinks they can apply it to any holiday. Because with Spirit Halloween, it's not what they sell, it's how they sell it. Just like our English teacher taught us,

beyond every good idea is a great thesis. For our second story, Hurricane Milton is heading to Tampa with huge economic concept. But there's one industry to watch during natural disasters. Mm-hmm. And it's our takeaway. So, yet he's Jack and I are checking the latest meteorological information. And Hurricane Milton has been upgraded back to a Category 5 storm as of Tuesday night.

Category 5 is the highest category. Totally. So this is an extremely dangerous storm. That's right. The Gulf Coast is about to get broadsided by the biggest hurricane in 19 years. There are sustained winds of 180 miles per hour, which are pushing the sea in the Gulf of Mexico to storm surges as high as 10 to 15 feet high. And that's from below. And then from above, this hurricane is going to dump 15 inches of rainfall just on the state of Florida.

Governor Ron DeSantis has warned Floridians that the storm is ferocious. He says we're preparing for the worst, but praying that it weakens. And President Biden canceled this trip to Germany to continue to oversee recovery efforts. And FEMA? They're already stretched thin by the last year. It was just like a week ago, Jack. So all eyes are on Tampa. Tampa, Florida.

Which somehow has not been hit by a major hurricane since 1921. Ironically, Tampa's luck in somehow missing major hurricanes in Florida is one reason that the population there has boom. Yeah. It's become one of those not metropolitan, but micropolitan areas. Like 3.2 million people now live in the Tampa St. Pete's area. And unfortunately, the hurricane is heading right. at them. But yet here's the interesting thing, Jack, and I notice, before this storm even made landfall, Wall Street has already reacted to the event.

Generac is a $10 billion company making electric generators from when the power goes out. Their stock surged 10% this week to an all-time high. And Home Depot? It was up 2% yesterday as well, not just for the rebuilding efforts that'll mean you buy Home Depot supplies, but because the cleaning efforts are also going to require Home Depot supplies. Home Depot is a major hurricane stock. Yeah. They actually mentioned, hurricane in their last three earnings calls. Yeah. Describing hurricane markets where sales are always higher.

We jumped in T-Bois stop. We just kept going until they stopped saying the word hurricane. They just keep bringing it up at the Home Depot earnings. Now, we hope that all Floridians find a safe place to shelter. And we also hope that Milton isn't as bad as forecasted. But there is one entire industry that has affected more than any other when it comes to hurricanes, and that industry knows it. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in?

The number one industry taking climate change most seriously is insurance. Insurance. Yeties, on our pod, we've covered extreme heat in Arizona and we've covered extreme cold down in Texas. We've covered massive floods from Vermont to North Carolina. We've covered droughts and wildfires all over the country. But we've noticed that the one industry that is raising the climate change alarms more than any other industry is insurance. Stocks of major insurance companies have all plummeted as these two hurricanes. have already and will continue to lead to huge insurance payouts. Insurance companies, they hate losses. So to pay for those increasingly large damages, they're jacking up premiums

or just refusing to cover your property altogether. Look at Florida. Already before Milton hit, insurance prices are up as much as 400% in the past five years in some areas. Over in California, several insurance companies won't even issue new policies because the risk of forest fires is too severe. Policymakers are still slow to act when it comes to climate change. But the insurance industry, they're moving fast. But the number one industry taking climate change most seriously is actually insurance. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, the bog bag. It has exploded to become the top selling accessory on moms, nurses, and teachers. The bog bag! It shows what it takes to win word of mouth marks. It shows what it takes to win word of mouth mark.

marketing. Word of mouth marketing. But Jack, I got, I'm sorry, you got a confession to make. You got a confession to? I am drowning in those canvas bags that you get for free. You can't buy a cute top without them hand and you like canvas tote bag. I've got about 17 of them. Oh, you know what I do? You know what I do, Jack? Well, actually, we have a bag, a tote bag of toy bags. Yeah. I do. I do too. When we go to people's houses now for parties, I just leave them in the house. Other people's houses, I leave them as a surprise. We've stashed all our canvas bags into one drawer because we can't throw them away. We feel bad because they were given away to us for free like a gift. But you recently made a change, which has to do with our story. Our go-to bag at our household is the bog bag. Yeah,

the bog bag is basically the crocs of bags. If you know someone with a lime green Stanley Tumblr, yes you do. They probably have a sunshine yellow bog bag too. It is rugged. It's a plastic tote bag. It's got holes in it, but it sits upright. It's perfect for the beach. Like if you got dirty stuff in there, you can hose it down right afterwards and it's dried just like cross. Like we said, it's like crocs mixed with a burkin bag. But here's what we found fascinating about this story. According to Bloomberg, this bag is on pace for $100 million in revenue this year. That sales growth like the Beanie Babe.

Yes, it is Jack. But the wildest part of this story is that Bogbag surged completely by accident. Get this, Yeties. Bogbag was founded by Kim Vaccarella, a New Jersey suburban mom who sketched out of design 15 years ago. She poured her family's life savings into her startup, but the first bulk batch that she ordered, they were defects. Yeah, yeah.

They showed up with these ugly black streaks, and she was heartbroken. So she donated those bags to the Jersey Shore after Hurricane Sandy because Jerseyans needed them, Jersey Strong. Those bags were really helpful to clean up flooded homes. But when the damage was all cleaned up, people didn't ditch those bog bags.

Instead, these Jersey Shore people were like, This is the perfect bag for the beach. And the next thing, you know, word of mouth between moms and Jersey made it the bag of the summer. The department store Dillards noticed and signed a deal with bog bag. That was Bog Bag's first moment. Hurricane Sandy Relief, donated bags. But then two other huge word of mouth moments blew up bog bags to hit $100 million in sales. Early in the pandemic, Peloton mom communities shared their favorite products on Facebook because they were stuck at home.

And their favorite product was the Bob bag. Later in the pandemic, teachers and nurses shared Get Ready with me videos on TikTok. And their bag was the bog bag. So without a dollar of paid marketing, the bog bag has become a nine figure a year business. Shit down, stand up and toss it in the bag. But it took 15 years to get there. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Bog bags? Word of mouth marketing requires super fans and super patience.

Word of mouth marketing is the most powerful form of marketing because it's driven by trust and love. But word of mouth marketing is also the slowest type of marketing because it has to pass from one person to another person to another person a mouth the mouth. But word of mouth only happens if people freaking love the product. And the first thing bog bags pulled off was earning the love from super fans. Moms, nurses, teachers, those women with physically demanding routines

love this utility bag. Customer love, that is the key ingredient for word of mouth growth, but it requires a lucky growth moment. Those growth moments came for the bog bag during the pandemic and Hurricane Sandy, but it took 15 years for it all to happen. So Basties, if you're trying to grow a business

and committing to word a mouth as your growth driver, just keep this in mind. Word of mouth marketing requires super fans and super patience. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for Sveche Wednesday? Spirit Halloween is opening 10 Spirit Christmases this year, and they're applying their three-step real estate formula. Because just like our teachers taught us, behind every good business is a great thesis.

For our second story, Hurricane Milton's path could change, but as of Tuesday night, it's headed right for Tampa. The number one industry taking climate change most seriously is insurance. And our third and final story is the bog bag. The bog bag. It's replacing canvas bag collections for families across America. And it hit $100 million in sales by word of mouth, which required super fans and super patience. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today.

First, nearly a year ago, a jury decided that Google's app store was an illegal monopoly. Well, a judge just laid down the sentencing. Google must open their app store by November 1st. The goal? Let app developers avoid a 30% app tax at Google charges. A court in Europe is making Apple do the same exact thing. And second, Uber wants more drivers to drive electric cars because they want to reduce the carbon footprint. So they've launched a chat GPT chat bot to help drivers figure out electric cars. So Uber wants drivers to go electric, so it's created a chat bot.

We don't totally get it, but we're for it. We think it sounds cool, but we don't totally get it. I don't get it off. I don't think drivers are going to buy an electric car because of Uber's chatbot. Oh, I've got to chat with chatGBT on my battery life. And finally, it is Floptober. Two of the biggest flops in Hollywood history have happened this month. First was the sequel to the movie The Joker.

Yeah, yeah. It cost $200 million to produce, but made just $20 million on opening weekend. And second was Megalopoulos, the Francis Ford Copeland movie that he spent $120 million of his own money on, but had one of the worst opening weekends ever. Just $4 million. Not October. It's flopped over. Now, time for the best fact yet.

This one's set to us by Ben Einstein down the street in San Francisco. Trivia. What is the best selling product of all time? Okay, what product has sold the most number of units of any product in the history of things? You ready for it? Hit me, Jack. The Bick pen. Bick crystal pen that we have all signed something with.

Since its invention in 1950, more than a hundred billion of these classic dime a dozen black pens have been sold. A hundred billion of these pens have been sold 300,000 of them are sold every single day. I probably bought like 200 of them, Jack. I mean, I bought a bunch of the 12 packs, 20 packs, 30 packs. I feel this is one of those like, look under your desk, Jack, because we got a big pen right here. Let's bring Big Penn out. The most sold product of all time. Thanks to the fact, Ben.

Yeties, fantastic to be with you for the big launch week from Los Angeles. We're so excited about this. First episode, it's going to be on the McDonald's Hap. Happy meal. Click the link in the episode description to make sure you hear it. And remember to follow, subscribe, rate, and give a five-star review to the best idea yet. Even though you haven't heard

an episode yet. We promised, the best idea yet is going to be the best one yet. Now, Jack, let's get some glue full pasta. By GI. And before we go, a congratulations to Samir and Sonia down in Atlanta, Georgia, who just got down on one knee

and got engaged. Happy six-year anniversary to Mike Payne and Olympia, Washington, who's celebrating with the love of his life. And Mary Pizumithy in Brighton, Michigan, just had their second grandson, Miles. Miles was born, and she is one happy grandmother. And happy 18th birthday to Griffin Brandon in the Woodlands, Texas. And Izzy Rudolph, over in San Francisco, is the corporate queen with the birthday of the best day. Happy birthday, Izzy.

And to anyone else, celebrate something today. Make it a T-Boy. Celebrate the Wits. This is Jack. I own stock of Crocs and Generac, and Nick and I both own stock of Apple.