The Best One Yet - 🍨 “Tampon Ice Cream Pint” — The Chaos Packaging trend. Goldman’s gloomy prediction. Arkansas’ lithium discovery.

Episode Date: October 23, 2024

Gin in a motor oil can? Tampons in an ice cream pint?... The new packaging trend is chaos.Goldman Sachs predicted a decade of flat stock prices… So we checked the history books.Arkansas just discovered the world’s biggest supply of lithium… Welcome to the “Lith Rush”.Plus, one airport just put a 3-minute time limit on hugging… and there’s a scientific reason why.$GS $SPY $XOM—-----------------------------------------------------Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Wednesday, Saviche Wednesday. October 23rd. And today's pod is the best one yet this is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. How so are you on a scale of one to podcast, Jack? How sore are you right now?

What are you feeling right there? Yeties. A couple of Yeties at our Seattle show came to the bar after and signed me up for CrossFit. Jack's three classes deep and he's kind of in the back of the class. But you're doing great. I think you're doing fantastic so far, Jack. I'm learning the CrossFit Gospel because those two Yetis were CrossFit instructors. I had no choice but to show up to this thing.

He's not a member of the Colette yet, but he's working his way off. But, Jack, three stories for today's pod. What do we got on the T-Boy? For our first story, Golden Sacks just predicted the era of booming stocks is over. It's a Dow Jones downer. So to predict the next decade, Nick and I opened the history books. Yes, we did. Second story, what do we got, Jack?

For our second story, sunscreen. sold in a whipped cream can? Tampons sold in an ice cream pint? The new packaging trend is chaos. Chaos packaging. It's trending because consumers decide in three seconds. For our third and final story, the world's biggest supply of lithium was just discovered,

and it's sitting under Arkansas. Besties, if you thought the gold rush was big, wait until you hear about the lithrush. But Yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Jack, fantastic. I love the mix today. Nick and I have a warning to everyone traveling right now. Yeties and besties, there is a time limit on how long you can hug. Get this. An airport in New Zealand just put a three-minute time limit on hugs.

Jack, they put a curfew on cuddles. They put an end time on embraces. And that end time is after three minutes of embrace. There is a new sign at the New Zealand airport. Maximum hug time. Three minutes. The sign continues. For Fonder farewells, use the car park. It sounds cold. It sounds grinch-like. I'm emotionally unavailable right now. Have the Kiwis not heard Hugh Grant's speech from Love Actually? It takes place in an airport. And Love Actually is everywhere, Jack. Apparently, New Zealand loves the Irish exit. Well, this new rule, it is actually backed up by some pretty profound science.

It's true, Nick. According to studies, a three-minute hug is more than sufficient, because oxytocin levels actually peak after just 20 seconds of embrace. So the most you actually physically need for a satisfying hug, it's just 20 seconds. The hug's climax is at 20 seconds. What this airport is basically saying is, if you need more than three minutes, get a room. And there's room in the car park. Terminals from moving. It's not for a moating, Jack.

But Nick, if you think about it, shorter hug times allow more people to hug. Yeah, so net, net, net, net, net. This is actually pro emotion, isn't it, Jack? That's some correct kissing calculus right there. Yes, it is. We did the math, besties. So, yet, is this airport in New Zealand. It just put a cap on hugging.

But that cap will actually increase the number of airport hugs. It's a beautiful thing. The New Zealand necks it. Jack, let's in our three stars. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm. Jack Nick, that's it.

I don't even think they need. to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know you know because we're ready to go, we can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show.

First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, Goldman Sachs just made its biggest stock market prediction yet, and it was a Dow Jones downer. Goldman Sachs says that stocks will be flat for the next decade. So Nick and I opened up. the history books. Now, yeah, it is, we know you, you know us. We've gotten to know each other really well. And Jack, we don't tell you what to invest in. We don't play that game. Now we don't play that game,

because everyone, you got different goals, you got different needs, you got different money, you got a different risk tolerance. But Nick and I do share our own personal investment decisions. And our best performing asset, it's not tech companies, it's not real estate, it's not an Invidia call option either. It's definitely not those Peloton shares, Jack. It is S-P-Y. S-P-Y-Yaddies, that is the E-T-F that tracks the S&P-500 stock market index, Jack. It's basically a financial smoothie that's made up of the top 500 stocks in the U.S. stock market. And Basties, over the last 10 years, the average annual return of the S&P 500 in that

ETF, it's up 13% a year. 13% per year. Over 10 years means the S&P 500 has nearly tripled in the last decade. Not too shabby, but here's the news, besties. Goldman Sachs, a top bank on Wall Street, said, pause the pod, that era of gains is over. Get this, Yeties. Goldman Sachs says that over the next decade, the stock market won't grow 13% a year. It'll grow just 3% a year.

Goldman Sachs thinks that the stock market's gains will be 75% smaller the next decade compared to the last decade. To quote our buddy Derek Zoolander, what is this a stock market for ants, Jack? So what we're saying is Goldman Sachs tossed a cold, wet, bitter blanket on the stock market's mojo. Jack and I got curious, so he jumped in T-boy style. Why is Goldman being such a Dow Jones downer right now, man? In their report, Goldman cited a few macro issues. You got the potential Trump trade war. You got high interest rates.

You got too much national debt. Too much debt across the whole world, actually. But the main reason Goldman is expecting an epic slowdown for the next decade, it's the techopoly. Goldman is concerned about the magnificent seven. Ah, the magnificent seven. Jack, we got Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Vida, Tesla, Meta, and Alphabet. All seven of them. Just seven companies have made up a majority of gains for the S&P 500.

Not the seven dwarfs, the seven giants of Wall Street. And those seven giants are expected to mature and slow down, according to Goldman. so the S&P 500 will slow down too. And that's why Goldman is expecting a decade of pretty much no gains. Now, Nick and I should point out, there's an asterisk here. There's an innovation X factor that could change everything Goldman's predicting. Artificial intelligence. AI could unlock a once-in-a-lifetime potential to extend that magnificent seven winning streak.

But funny thing when Jack and I hear a big bank make a big, bold prediction, right, Jack? Either way, Goldman Sachs predicts a lost decade for stuff. stock market returns. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are everyone in the stock market? It makes us get curious about the past. Interesting thing, Eddies, historically, if there is an innovation streak by a small group of companies, it's typically followed by a decade that falls flat. For example, in the 1960s, there was a group of companies known as the Nifty 50. IBM, Kodak, Xerox, they powered stocks for a decade, and then there were 10 years of no stock market gains.

We got too excited about the nifty-50, so we had a decade we needed to recover from it. Then in the 1990s, we had the tech bubble. Intel, GE, Cisco, Microsoft, Amazon. It was a wild party of tech stocks, but it crashed. And it took 10 years to recover. Now, as Jack and I were forced to repeat like daily back when we worked at banks, the past performance is not indicative of future returns. We don't think history repeats itself.

But we do think it rhymes. So in our opinion, we don't think that Goldman's prediction of a flat decade is exactly on point. But it wouldn't be the first time it's happened. We've actually seen this twice before. For our second story. Can you sell sunscreen in a whipped cream can? The answer is yes. Besties, the new trend in startups is chaos packaging.

And it reveals the secret to selling anything. Now, Yeties, we were hanging out with you six more. months ago, and we did a fascinating story on a company called Graza. At the time, it was the best one yet. It was, it was the best one yet. Because Graza was the fastest selling olive oil in history. It's selling $50 million of product this year. It was selling so much olive oil.

Caesar was jealous. So Jack and I got curious, what was Graz's secret? It wasn't the olive oil. It was the packaging. Yeah, Graz's olive oil was inspired by a shampoo bottle. It came in a squeezable plastic bottle, not like glass, like every other olive oil. And refills, they come in a beer can. You can pop open olive oil like a Modello.

What Jag and I are saying is this ain't your average extra virgin olive oil. This ain't your average EVOO. But here's the news yet is Graza. He's not the only brand launching in crazy containers these days. Exhibit A, Happy Coffee sells instant coffee in a pharmacy pill pack. Exhibit B, Ngin gin sells gin alcohol in a motor oil tin can. Exhibit 4. vacation skin care.

They sell sunscreen in a whipped cream spray canister. And they're getting 5 million views a week. On what? Their TikTok? On everything, Jack. Yet he's added all up and this is all a new trend. The Wall Street Journal calls chaos packaging. Chaos packaging. Nick and I were fascinated because this is actually a powerful financial trick shot.

Yeah, chaos packaging is a financial trick shot because it's an alternative to ads. The best example we found. is a company called Flow Tampons. Flow Tampons. Flow Tampons happens to sell tampons, but... In an ice cream pint. Their product looks like a 16-ounce Ben and Jerry's pint, but inside is actually 16 tampons.

We jumped in T-boy style. The co-founder of Flo Tampons had the best, quote, the best insight we've heard about this whole concept. She said, look, we're a startup. We can't afford a billboard. So this pint of tampons, that is our billboard. Exactly. Packages of Tampons.

Playtex, always, they all look the same on the shelf. An ice cream carton container within the tampon section, it sticks out on the shelf just like a billboard. We've said the wars in the stores, and that is how you win the wars in the stores, with a pint of ice cream of tampons. For a fraction of the price, Flow basically got the same impact as a billboard would have given them.

They stood out from the legacy competition, just like a billboard would do. And crazy packaging, it's the perfect opportunity for a startup. Because established brands, they're not going to mix things up with some crazy chaos packaging, aren't they, Jack? It wouldn't make sense for Procter and Gamble to do something like this. They don't want to confuse their long-term customers who have been buying for decades. P&G's lawyers aren't signing off on an ice cream tub of tampacks anytime soon.

But a scrappy startup? They'll put a tampon in a pint, even if you accidentally means you stick it in the freezer when you get home. Yeah, it is called chaos packaging. We hope nobody accidentally chugs their sub-block, whipped cream style. It's dairy. Honey, I don't think this is cookie dough. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies doing chaos packaging? You have three seconds.

Three seconds to convince a consumer to buy. Best emphasis yet, Jack. Yeties and consumer goods from toothpaste to Tylenol, we generally take three seconds, on average, to decide if we buy. It's called dwell time. We take three seconds in the aisle to stop, judge the products, and make a decision. And Jack, why do we take such short time just three seconds in the aisle? We're busy.

There's too many options. We can't dissect 18 different labels, so we probably just bought the thing we bought last time. Jack and I call this three-second phenomenon premature evaluation. So to jar consumers out of their routine, chaos packaging can be perfect. It can get them to linger for two more seconds in the aisle. Two more seconds is all you need. That's double the time. And that's why a startup is putting tampons and ice cream pints and putting them up on

the shelf. Because when it comes to convincing a consumer to buy, you only have three seconds. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, the U.S. Geological Survey just discovered an entire sea of lithium underneath Arkansas. If you thought the gold rush was big, prepare for the lithrush. Jack, let's go back to 1849 before the invention of blue jeans when prospectors discovered gold in the foothills of California. Gold! Silver and gold! And that resulted in the gold rush, the establishment of California, the Golden State,

and the San Francisco 49ers. Well, yet he's, something on the same level of magnitude just happened in Arkansas. Get this, 175 years later to the dot, the U.S. Geological Survey, just announced an estimated 5 to 19 million tons of lithium. were just discovered underneath Arkansas. Did you say 19 million tons? I did say 19 million tons, and I have no idea how big that is, Jack. Can you sprinkle on some real number context for us, please?

Crunching some numbers. That's 38 billion pounds of lithium, the element most crucial for our electric future. Yeties from iPhones to electric vehicles, odds are you are holding, using, wearing something right now that involves lithium. The mobile world and our energy transition runs on recharge. rechargeable lithium ion batteries. I'm sorry, Jack, pause the pot. I'm checking the periodic table of elements. Do you know where lithium is on this thing, man?

At the top? It's number three. After helium, lithium. Lithium. It makes titanium look like boron. That's the least scientific assessment we've ever made on the show. If you got a Bunsenberger right now, you're appreciating what we just discovered.

And we just discovered that there's enough lithium underneath Arkansas to supply the world's electric cars Through the year 2030, nine times over. Sit down, stand up, and start digging, Jack. Now, yeties, before we proceed any further with this massive, massive discovery, we should explain the awesome context. The lithium is actually dissolved in an ancient sea of water underneath Arkansas. Which is awesome and is challenging.

It's awesome because the underground seawater is from the Jurassic era. So like T-Rex fossils are marinating right now in an electric battery juice water feels like the plot of Jurassic Park 8, Jack. And it's also challenging, because that water is 10,000 feet underground. Now, we can use conventional oil drills to access that water. But then we would need to let the water evaporate so that the lithium would be left over to use. Or we could develop some kind of a new technology to do it quicker. But either way, ironically, the company that might benefit the most directly from this electric lithrush serendarmes. Dippity? Who is it, Jack? Exxon Mobile. It's Exxon Mobile. They actually bought the land that we're talking about. They own the drilling rights on 120,000 acres of Arkansas. Because ExxonMobil's trying to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. And apparently they had a hunch that there might be lithium underneath Arkansas.

Oh, let's just buy all the land in Arkansas, guys. Randy Marsh is pissed right now. But once production is underway, the United States will never have to import lithium. ever again. Again, this is tremendous news. And it's number three on the periodic table. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are everyone in the American economy? The American lithium rush is a global game changer. Yeties, currently, we get lithium from South America and Australia before it shipped over to China where it gets processed. But now we could get lithium from Arkansas, and we could build our own processing plants right here in the U.S. Now currently, just 5% of global lithium demand is supplied by America.

That's it. Now, the U.S. could go from the biggest importer of lithium to the biggest exporter of lithium, which would mean huge job creation. And currently, the battery, by far, is the most expensive part of any electric car, as much as $10,000 per vehicle. But soon that will change as the new supply of lithium comes out from underground Arkansas into the vehicles. So, yeah, he's added all up, and we just have. A eureka moment. The next gold rush could be Arkansas. The American lithrush is a global game changer.

Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for Svichay Wednesday? Goldman Sachs thinks a decade-long stock market slowdown is coming. From 13% gains per year to just 3% gains per year. Stock market for ads, we've seen the lost decades before, and it all started with the nifty 50. For our second story, sunscreen served in a whipped cream bottle, consumer goods products are standing out with chaos packaging. Because you only have three seconds, three seconds to get a consumer's attention. And our third and final story, there is a sea of lithium underneath Arkansas, and it's enough to supply the entire world's electric cars. The American Lithrush, it's a global game changer. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today.

First, McDonald's stock is plummeting on news of an E. coli outbreak at their locations. The CDC has found 49 people in 10 states suffering from the effects of E. coli. And most of these people report having recently eaten a McDonald's quarter pounder. McDonald's stock is down 10% as of this recording and after hours trading. $20 billion in value. Gone. And second, former Abercrombie CEO, Mike Jeffries, was just arrested in a sex trafficking case. If you watched White Hot and thought that the man from that Netflix documentary was creepy? Seemed creepy, Jack.

Well, law enforcement officials now agree. He is creepy. This involves wannabe Abercrombie models and the abuse by their former CEO, Mike Jeffries. And in the past year, Abercrombie and Fitch was sued for allegedly turning a blind eye to the sexual misconduct of their former CEO. And finally, Peloton announced its biggest partnership yet, Peloton, Costco. Peloton's Bike Plus will be available at 300 Costco's from November through February. It'll be available online too for $300 less than retail because apparently Peloton bikes can still get even cheaper, Jack. I think the key here is that Costco, they get a good deal for their members.

Peloton stock search 10% on the word of the Kirkland Pelotons. Bringing our total loss on our Peloton investment to just 98%. It can get worse, Jack. It can get worse. Now time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Nico Cale from lovely, like Goria, Italy. He jumped in T-Boy style on our story about chocolate this Halloween. Because of record high chocolate prices,

more candy companies are sneaking in nuts and fillers to try to mess with us. And that's exactly what Nutella did when they started. Nutella, it is the original combination of hazelnut and chocolate that is based on a 200-year-old northern Italian recipe called Junduya. And today, the Nutella Company uses so many. hazel nuts, actually a quarter of the world supply of hazelnuts. Nutella is basically just a

hazelnut importer. Like, one out of four hazelnuts in the world ends up on a Nutella toast. Which you ate at a hostel during that European trip you made during college. Nutella, it's a great spread and a great skin cream. Don't ask us, just trust us.

Yeties, you look fantastic for for Cevice Wednesday. And remember, one of the best ways you can help grow the show is Drop today's episode in your Slack channel and tell your buddies at work, H-Y-H-D-B-O-Y. Put it in your group chat. Have you had the best one yet?

Mom, if you know, you know. Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. Can't wait. And before we go, a shout out to legendary Yetis, Taylor and Ryan, two besties who listened to the pod and Jack, take it from here. We met them at the Seattle show, and they basically coerced me and be taking Crospin. But I'm having a great time after three classes. And you're looking.

Fantastic. Exhausted and fantastic. Ian Juan is the newborn baby in Foster City, California. Welcome to the world. Ian. Thanks for being a Yeti. Happy birthday to Colin Curran in Santee, California celebrating with their fiance and dogs on a desert camping trip. And Ivan Mendoza has got a birthday down in Phoenix, Arizona. His best mate Smoko knows that he's the best one yet. Happy birthday to Eric Go in Saratoga, California, who's crushing the 12-3-30 workout. And congratulations to future Dr. Madalina Romana, who's celebrating a birthday over in lovely Morrow Portugal. And to anyone else, celebrate something today. Make it a T-Boy. Celebrate.

This is Jack. I own stock of Abercrombie and Fitch, and Nick and I both own stock of Peloton and ETFs of the S&P 500.