The Best One Yet - 🦜 “The End of the Pandemic” — Margaritaville’s parrot cruise. Starbucks’ barista union. JPMorgan’s huge prediction.

Episode Date: December 10, 2021

Boldest prediction yet for the New Year: JPMorgan says 2022 is when the pandemic ends. Parrothead Jimmy Buffett is taking on the 2 big cruise companies because Margaritaville is the OG unicorn Creator. And 1 town in Upstate New York is about to change the future of Starbucks baristas.$CCL $SBUX $JPMGot a SnackFact? Tweet it @RobinhoodSnacks @JackKramer @NickOfNewYorkWant a shoutout on the pod? Fill out this form:https://forms.gle/KhUAo31xmkSdeynD9Got a SnackFact for the pod? We got a form for that too:https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSe64VKtvMNDPGSncHDRF07W34cPMDO3N8Y4DpmNP_kweC58tw/viewformLearn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. And this is Snacks Daily. It is Friday. You made it. The Real Friday, December 10th. There was a three-day stock market winning streak. It's over.

Uh-huh. Must be the bad reviews of the Sex and the City sequel. I haven't heard great things. Maybe. Either way, this pod, if I had a review, the best one year. And either way, you're a carry jack and you should run with that. So what is our first story today? J.P. Morgan's Christmas gift to all of us is optimism.

Snackers, America's largest bank is boldly predicting the pandemic. will end next year. For our second story, Parrot Head Jimmy Buffett and my mom's favorite musician is taken on the big cruise industry. Jack, past the salt. Margaritaville is the unicorn

you never saw coming. For our third and final story, Starbucks stock is having their worst year since 2017. Well, 27 baristas working hard in upstate New York

are making it a little harder for the Starbucks stock. But before we hit that fantastic Frapachino of stores. I love what you did there. I'll take the Venti. This is the best. mix we've ever done. I really love the mix today. I give you Fido, Charlie, Max, Spot, and Clifford.

Classic dog names, but those dog names, they are out. Random dog name you didn't expect is in. Snackers, that's right. Jack and I discovered the most popular pet names of 2021 and we want to lay them on you. Actually, the dog walking app, Rover discovered it because they have the dog names of a million parence that registered their dogs on their site this year. Get this, Snackers. The most popular new dog names of the last year are like pandemic-y dog names. This is kind of bizarre. There's definitely a pandemic theme. You know, because a global health disaster is now part of your Labradoodle's identity.

It makes so much sense. The first trend of dog names we noticed is a surge of people actually who named their dog COVID. We couldn't make this up. There was a 35% jump in dogs named COVID since 2020. Naming your dog COVID is cute until you're like the one person at the dog park. He's yelling, hey, come back here, COVID. Hey, COVID. The second trend we noticed was Fauci.

Fauci. People are naming their dogs Fauci. Yeah, the name Fauci for pets out there is up 270% since last year. It's actually Dog Ter Fauci. Yes. Good point, Jack. Not Fauci MD. We're talking Fauci-Maltese.

Not Tony Fauci. Tosi Fauci. Let me see you American Cattle Club. But Snackers, it's not just COVID. It's not just Fauci. We got other new dog names. And the fastest, biggest, growing most winnerest of all the popular new dog's names, is Zoom.

Nearly a 500% jump in the number of dogs named Zoom this year. There is a freakish number of dogs out there named Zoom starting 2021, baby. The first company to become a verb and a pet name the same year is Zoom. Because no one's Rottweiler is named Facebook. By the way, are we not going to talk about the fact that Jack and Molly are both in the top 10 this year for dog names? Great human beings. Arguably the two closest people in your life. are also dog names.

Which is why I'm calling you Zoom. Let's in our three stories. You're tuned in the snacks daily. We spoke to the lawyers and we got to get something legal out the way. The snacks about to hear ain't food. It's air candy. They don't reflect the views of the robberhood family.

It's all informational just so. We're not recommending any securities. It's not a research report or investment advice. Not an offer or sale of a security. Snacks is digestible. Business news. you. Rob her financial LLC member FINRA slash SIPC. For our first story, America's biggest bank just made a big prediction about next year. It was huge.

J.P. Morgan Chase says the pandemic will end. Yeah. And the normal will return in 2022. Step right up, Mr. Marco Kalanovich. This guy's got a PhD in economics and optimism, apparently. He's the co-head of the global research over at JP. Morgan Chase, you just bank in the United States. We call them the Gandalf of Midtown because this guy's got a crystal ball on one hand and a Bloomberg terminal tapping away on the other. Down the hall, I think this makes Jamie Diamond Miss Cleo, Jack. Bold end of year report.

JP Morgan Chase just emailed every client they have. Snackers, Jack and I were able to get access to the report. And let us tell you about the opening lines of this here report. 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery. Oh, and guess what? it didn't end there. End of the global pandemic and a return to normal conditions. Mike drop over at 270 Park Avenue, Jack. It was one of those 45-page reports that you're like, I'm good. Thank you for the first page. Let's put this prediction over on the Sapphire Reserve card.

Now, when Marco Kalinovich, PhD, says there will be a full global recovery, what he means is the world's gross domestic product, the GDP, will come back to pre-COVID levels. It's a bold prediction. And he's got three reasons driving this. bolt prediction. More vaccine treatments. Yep. More travel capabilities. More pent up demand from consumers. You add all that up Snackers and J.P. Morgan Chase thinks the world returns to normal next year. Let that sink in.

But it's not just cupcakes and confetti. What is it? 560 Park Ave. It's 270 Park Avenue. I think you nailed the old Bear Stearns building, Jack. JP Morgan Chase has four concerns too. They do. First, you got geopolitical tensions over in Europe and Asia.

What if China invades Taiwan? What if Russia invades Ukraine? And they're worried about a potential energy crisis. We got all these clean energy pledges, but there isn't enough clean energy yet. So there could be an oil spike. And they're worried about inflation and they're worried about monetary policy. If prices keep spiking like they have this year, the Fed may have to crank up interest rates, which will slow down the economy.

Full disclosure, Jack, I was just a blue bottle down the street. I paid $8.17 for a seasonal day. date-infused latte. That's not inflation. That's called fancy. The entire time I drank a jack, I was like, I hope this is the best coffee I've ever had. I'm not a shopaholic. I'm a victim of inflation. So snackers, in the meantime, J.P. Morgan, they are very bullish on 2022. So Jack, what is the takeaway for our buddies over at the entire financial industry, actually? When it comes to predictions, we focus on the themes, not the numbers. Here's what Jack and I are looking for whenever we get a prediction report just like this. The themes like pent-up consumer demand, new vaccine therapeutics,

geopolitical flashpoints, which could offset the first two. Here's what Jack and I don't look for in these prediction reports. Numbers. J.P. Morgan Chase also said that the S&P 500 will go by 8% next year. Yeah, go to page nine. That means on December 31st, 2022 next year, J.P. Morgan Chase thinks the S&P 500 stock market index of the 500 biggest companies in the United States is going to be at exactly 5,050 points. Exactly. We think it's absurd that Wall Street banks do this. And here's why. According to a New York Times report, in the past 20 years, the average Wall Street firm's prediction for the S&P 500 index has been off by 13 whole percentage points. That means they're way off.

Way off. We take the average prediction, like what JP Morgan Chase does, did? Just now. They're way off. So not 8% no, but either negative 5 or 23%, like way off. It's just not possible to predict the future of stock markets. Yeah, you can be right about the bigger themes, but you can be dead wrong about the individual stocks at the same time. When it comes to these crystal ball predictions, like what JP Morgan Chase did, we pay attention to the themes, not the numbers.

For our second story, Jack, can you, you see it? I can't find it. Do you see it? I'm looking for my lost shaker of salt. Jimmy Buffett is cruising cruise ships between Florida and Bahamas, taken on the big cruise companies. You got Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian cruise lines, and Margarita. Margaritaville Cruises, Snackers. Here's the thing with the cruise industry lately. The cruise industry blew out their flip-flops and stepped on a pop-top.

One of the greatest lines of all time blew out their flip-flops. The airline industry is back. Jims are back. Cruises are not back. We're looking at it right now, Jack. Carnival Cruz's stock is down 73% from its all-time high. Royal Caribbean is down 45%. Investors see a problem.

Customers see a problem. But singer-songwriter Jimmy Buffett sees an opportunity. Jimmy Buffett is launching Margarita at sea. Not Warren Buffett. Jimmy Buffett. We're talking the 74-year-old singing legend with the Bahama shirt, that guy. This man is the beach. The beach is this man.

Yeah, he's Tommy Bahama and a human being. He wrote the national anthem of Key West. and Sigab. Tommy Bahama is a human being. Actually, he's not. What? It's a made-up character. I hate to break that to you on the pod.

In the meantime, Snackers, Jimmy Buffett's Margaritaville business is partnering up with the private cruise line Bahamas Paradise to take on the big boys, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean, and Carnival. I am de Captain now, says Jimmy Buffett to this cruise show.

You get on one of these cruise shows by Jimmy Buffet, you can chew a cheeseburger in paradise while sipping on a five o'clock somewhere. Nick, I just can't keep up with you this story. It's not you, Jack. It's the changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes. Now, Snackers, here is why Jimmy Buffett is jumping into this business. And here is why Bahamas Paradise is doing these specific types of cruises.

Carnival and Royal Caribbean are struggling. So they're only focused on their most profitable trips, the really long ones, which is basically the business class of the seats. Well, Jimmy Buffett is seeing an opportunity in the big boys' vulnerability. Margarita Cruises is focused just on like weekend cruises, two nights, three days, which is the main cabin of the seas. Still desirable, but just very, very short. Yes, shorter is more affordable. More affordable has younger clientele.

And younger clientele is the opportunity that Jimmy Buffett sees. Exactly. Young people are less concerned with severe COVID these days. They're more concerned with losing out on their own roaring 20s. Which is exactly why this pivot makes sense. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our budget? Ladies, over at Jimmy Buffett's Margaritaville business. He was a creator before the creator economy was the thing.

Yeah, Snackers. Kim Kardashian, Kylie Jenner, Rianna, they leveraged their fame to launch billion-dollar brands, Instagram first, and it's been absolutely incredible. But boomer Jimmy Buffett, he's been running a unicorn business for years, decades even, pre-Tic Tac. This is wild, Snackers. Jimmy Buffett's Margaritaville business actually brings in $2 billion a year in revenues. Two billion.

That's on par with Cheesecake Factory. Vail Resorts. Hyatt Hotels and it makes it a Fortune 1000 company. Margaritaville may be one of the most diversified conglomerates in the game. Jack, they're doing music. Fin's on my left, fins on my right. Doing a musical. Escape to Margaritaville off Broadway.

They're doing enough books to fill up half a library. Margaritaville does apparel. They have 70 restaurants. They have their own shoes, bicycles, furniture. And of course, the blender. Oh, but wait, there's more. Margaritaville also has all-inclusive resorts, hotels, time shares, and vacation clubs. Jack, if they launched something called Parrot Plus, that's going to be his first streaming network. And now they do cruises. This is like Waystar Royco Square. Margaritville accomplished all this without social media. While everyone focuses on the new billionaire creators, understandably, totally fair. Jimmy Buffett is an OG creator. For our third and final story before the weekend, Starbucks stock is having its work. Worst year since 2017. Brutal.

Then Buffalo happened. Wow. Drop this on his check. Buffalo has changed the trajectory for unionized labor. Buffalo, New York. They do wings, they do snow, and apparently they do like major corporate changes for all the baristas ever. Organizers at three Buffalo area Starbucks manage to get a vote.

And here, if you walk up to the counter, is the question that was being asked of the employees at Starbucks in Buffalo, New York. Should we form the first ever. Starbucks U.S. Union of Baristas. Huge deal over at Starbucks. Bernie Sanders has been tweeting in support of Starbucks workers for days to form a union. On the other side, Elon Musk has been known to tweet against union drives like this.

And right in the middle is lovely Elmwood, New York Starbucks. Just outside of Buffalo. Well, here are the results from this epic union vote at Starbucks. 19 workers voted yes, let's unionize, to just eight who said no. Now Snackers, two other upstate New York locations of Starbucks, we're like still waiting for the votes to get counted. But it's already official, the first union. Starbucks Workers United is a union representing baristas in Elmwood, New York. The brotherhood of baristas, the sisterhood of Starbucks.

The tattoos are coming. The logo is actually a fist holding like a venty. Right, right. Instead of a tattoo artist, they're going to get like Carl who does all the lot to like come in and like do a leaf. You know, like the leash logo that's on the lattes. Now, Snackers, we know what you're thinking here. Okay, a couple locations of Starbucks in upstate New York, like voted to form a union. What does this exactly mean?

Well, just one. We're not sure of the other two yet. True. Good point. Good point. So, like, what does this mean for this huge company? It means a Starbucks doesn't just have a boss. It has a boss and then a workers boss too.

So in the case of this Buffalo Starbucks, workers were asking for more staffing support and like better training. They wanted more from management. And employee was like, you want me. to make how many coffees per hour in my 12-hour shift? What's going on here? Aventi times Vente? Wait, how many ingredients are in this extremely complicated thing? Workers have been griping, but at most Starbucks. And at most other American companies, too. Buristas take their complaints to the boss, and then the boss decides whether to change anything. But not anymore at this

particular Starbucks location. The 27 workers now will elect a representative who will negotiate with that boss, all the workers pay, all the workers' benefits, and the working conditions that they work under. So the boss of that Starbucks doesn't decide. The boss of that Starbucks negotiates. Before we get to the takeaway, we have to share a wild part of this union drive. Get this snackers. This is crazy. Some executives from Starbucks showed up at that Buffalo location to try to like charm the baristas to vote against the union. Yeah, they grabbed a couple mops and left their ties at home. They did. To try to like show we're workers too. We're one of you. Hey, we're like you. I've done work. I've put soap on the floor. Yeah, Nick and I

call it faux camaraderie. They tried to get the workers to vote now, but they voted yes anyway. Now, this Elmwood, New York, Starbucks, it may be a little less efficient because of this union and what we mean is a little less profitable. But maybe this particular Starbucks location will pay workers more and have more humane working conditions. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at this one Starbucks. This ends a 70-year losing streak for organized labor in the U.S. Snackers, union membership, it actually peaked in the United States at 35% of all workers back in the 1950s. It's 11% now.

It is. Well, workers, they've been trying to turn the tide and increase unions, but they keep losing. Starbucks workers tried to unionize some locations in the 2000s and again in 2019. But they lost. They voted no. Volkswagen workers tried to unionize in Tennessee. Amazon workers in Alabama. And they all voted no in the last two years.

This new Starbucks-Briesta union is a symbolic victory for the labor movement. And honestly, it aligns with the trend of workers having more power right now because of the labor shortage. After seven decades, the declining unions in the U.S. seems to be over. Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us over there? J.P. Morgan says next year,

the pandemic ends and normal returns. The themes are worth paying attention to. The numbers, worry so much about the numbers. Jimmy Buffett's Margaritaville is entering cruises. Kylie and Kim. Yes. Rienna. Definitely yes. But Jimmy Buffett also. Maybe first. Yeah, he did it before there was social media. Wild. Union's had a 70-year losing streak in the U.S. But a single Starbucks on Elmwood Avenue and Buffalo, New York broke the losing streak. Now, time for our snack fact of the day. This one sent in by Lee Fialio from lovely Los Angeles. Remember we were asking why they call it

the 101, the 405 out west in California. What's up, Nick and Jack? This is Leo Fialio from Los Angeles, California, with a snack fact for you. The reason we put the in front of the freeway names here is because at one point, the freeways actually had a name. For example, the San Bernardino Freeway, the Hollywood Freeway.

And then eventually they added numbers to the end. And they became the San Bernardino 10 Freeway, the Hollywood 101 Freeway. And at one point, we just got tired of saying the whole thing, and it just became the 10 freeway, the 101 freeway, and so on. And that's it. Snackers, if you're on 405, if you're on the 405, if you're on a 405, you're probably in traffic, but we hope you're enjoying this pod.

Snackers, honestly, it looked fantastic this week. If you've got to win, celebrate it this weekend. We're doing it too. And we'll see you Monday like always. Can't wait. And before we go, happy birthday to Snacker Carlos over in Milano, Italy. Happy birthday, Monolo Del Cose in Mexico. and Shripp's Agarwal over in Mumbai, India.

And Heather D. in Sacco, Maine. And happy birthday, Kristen down in Charlotte, North Carolina. Happy birthday, Ivana. The tumbling sensation who dwells in Menlo Park, California. And Jack, get this. Co-workers Kevin and Lauren, they work together. They got the same birthday, both in Los Angeles. Happy 34th to Katie Fall Jean in Martinez, California.

And Mike Eisen enjoyed the 33rd down in Miami. Bottle service. Happy birthday to West Village, New York native Whitney White. And Jack, Bailey McQueen just passed the California bar exam down the street in San Francisco. Happy anniversary to Nico and Grace over in Toledo, Ohio, home of the mudheads. Brenda and Arlene, enjoy the three-year anniversary this weekend in Pompano Beach, Florida. Congratulations to Alexis and Mo Yacubi, who just got engaged right at the castle at Disney World. They're bullish on Disney Plus.

Will you be my plus one for life? If you're celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. Island stock of Volkswagen. And a Volkswagen. Robin Hood Snacks, newsletters, and podcasts reflect the opinions of only the authors who are associated persons of Robin Hood Financial LLC and do not reflect the views of Robin Hood

Markets Inc. or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. They are meant for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, cryptocurrency, or investment strategy in any account. This is not an offer or sale of a security, not a research report, and is not intended to serve on the basis for any investment decision. Any third-party information provided therein does not reflect the views of Robin Hood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, or any of their subsidiaries or affiliates. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal and past performance, does not guarantee future results. Robin Hood Financial LLC, member FINRA, SIPC.

I'm looking for my lost shaker of salt.