The Best One Yet - ⚡🧃 “The energy drink stock up 4,000%” — Celsius’ lucky surge. Barbie & Ken’s GDP surprise. Ford’s negotiation lesson.

Episode Date: October 27, 2023

The #1 stock on Wall Street? It’s Celsius Energy Drink, up 4,000% in the last 5 years — But this overnight success was actually 20 years in the making.Barbie powered Mattel to great earnings and America’s GDP soared 4.9% higher this summer — But stocks are falling because investors don’t look backward, they look forward.And Ford finally reached a deal with the auto union — And it reveals the power of one negotiation tactic: “The Art of Anchoring”.$CELH $MAT $F $SPYSubscribe to our newsletter: tboypod.com/newsletterWant merch, a shoutout, or got TheBestFactYet? Go to: www.tboypod.comFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on Youtube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Friday, Fahita Friday, October 27th. And today's pod, it is the best one yet. It's a T-Boy. What a T-B-O-Y, Jack. We are four days from Halloween. Yetis, are you going as the ghost of Twitter?

Or are you going as a double-digit latte demon? Let us know your business-themed Halloween costumes at T-boy on Instagram. All right, so Jack and I next week, we're picking the best pop-biz costumes that are out there, and then we're sharing them on the pod. Jack, what's our first story for today's T-boy? For our first story, this summer, Mattel sold $600 million worth of Barbie and Ken dolls. But that toy news is also why the stock market just fell. For our second story, Ford reached a deal with their auto union.

The strike is over. Honk your F-150s. The striker is getting paid, and it's all thanks to the art of anchoring. And our third and final story is the top stock of the last five years. It's shockingly Celsius energy. Celsius energy drink. Yetis, this energy drink is an overnight success. 20 years in the making. But Yetis, before we hit that fantastic mix of stories today. Jack, there is no other way I'd want to go into a weekend.

Wonderful mix of stories today. We're here to report to you the newest form of Uber ride. Which is the slowest form of Uber ride. Get this. Uber. Just announced that you can book a hot air balloon on the Uber app. One sec, Jack, I'm just hailing a hot air balloon in the Uber app. The giant balloons, you see. see every summer at the local county fair. Those giant balloons, those are now an Uber ride.

So you could book a Toyota Camry and get there in five minutes. Or you could book a hot air balloon and get there in five hours. Automobiles are powered by gas. Hot air balloons are powered by a different kind of gas. Yet is the fastest way you're going to get there. It's a windy day. But also, if you're afraid of heights... Oh, you're getting a one-star rating on this thing, Jack.

Now, Nick and I should point out, these balloons are only available to hail from one destination. You can only get a hot air Uber balloon in Capadokia, Turkey, a region famous for its hot air balloons. Also, we should point out, you don't take a balloon to get to a destination. No, you are taking off and returning to the exact same place, right, Jack? Right, with a hot air balloon Uber, you don't go from A to B, you go from A to A to A. It's just an A to A situation, Yetis. You go up and you come back down. Honestly, you're going to be happy you got back down. Add it all up. Uber is becoming the super app we've always hoped it would become.

But Uber, one second. This is Nick and Jack here. We got to talk to you for a moment. If you really want to be a super app, you should add one thing. Podcasts. Podcasts. If we're going to wait 20 minutes for a car to arrive, we may as well be listening to our 20 minutes show.

20 minutes. The perfect window for a T-boy pod episode. Hey, Dara, let's hit our three stories. You do five-star ratings? We do five-star ratings too. Podcast. Let's add it to the Uber app. H-Y-H-H-U-B-E-R.

15 years before this song. Two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm They had an idea to cause a cultural storm It's the best one yet I don't even think they need to practice 50% that's a fat tip Tea boy city on your at list If you know you know because we're ready to go

We can't wait no more So just start the show Start the show For our first story Mattel they just reported record sales Thanks to two people Barbie and Ken But those doll sales are the same reason

That stocks fell on Thursday Jack, put down your cabbage patch kit over there. We just heard from Mattel's CEO. What did he say? Well, the real Mattel CEO. Not the one played by Will Farrell and the Barbie movie. Thank you for smuggling on that context, my friend. Mattel's third quarter earnings, Yetis, they just jumped 9% from last year.

Driven by dolls. Dolls. Was in Polly Pocket. It was Barbie doll sales hit $605 million in the third quarter, up 16% from the year before. Barbie, congratulations. You are official. a billionaire right now. The Barbie movie helped Mattel break a four-quarter streak of sales shrinkage. But Jack, we should point out, it wasn't just Barbie's dream house driving these sales, was it,

my friend? It was also the Mojo Dojo Casa house, wasn't it, Nick? Jack, what was the patriarchy doing for Mattel over there? Ken had something to do with Mattel's results, too. Another highlight, it was Hot Wheels. Hot Wheels sales are surging these days. Mattel's vehicle division enjoyed 22% higher sales thanks to Hot Wheels. But Yeti's here's what Jack and I found fascinating about this story. Mattel's stellar summer earnings weren't the only big financial news yesterday, was it, Jack? Now, yesterday we also heard that America's GDP looks just like Barbie. Yeah, America's gross domestic product.

Yeti's, the government announced that our GDP grew 4.9% in the third quarter. That is blockbuster economic growth. Jack, you and I have been covering the markets since we worked in finance. Have we seen a number like that in our careers? I looked into it, Nick. That is the best non-pandemic quarter of economic growth in 23 years. Yeties, the last time America's economy grew like this, it was Y2K and you had a tomagachi. Totally snuck up on us, but apparently this summer was fantastic for the U.S. economy's growth. All right, Jack, let's whip out the whiteboard and do a recap here.

Economic data and Mattel's corporate earnings are showing that consumer spending was surging over last summer. But the key word in Nick's sentence there that we want to highlight was. Yeah, was surging. Both the GDP report and Mattel's earnings are backward-looking reports. Guess what, Yetis? Despite insanely impressive numbers, Mattel's stock, it fell 7% yesterday. Why? Because Mattel forecast that holiday sales are going to be flat this year.

Despite Christmas Barbie, Kwanza Ken, and Hanukkah Hot Wheels. Based on October's toy sales so far, Mattel forecasts a sad Christmas of sales. And slower toy sales are a signal for the rest of the economy. and a signal for our takeaway. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Mattel? Stock prices look forward and everything changed in October. Yeties, yesterday the NASDAQ stock exchange fell 2%, one of its worst days of the year.

Overall, stock markets are in a correction right now. They're down 10% from their highs earlier in the year. How besties, we should point out, it's not entirely clear why. Like, it could be the interest rates that keep on rising, or it could be because Congress hasn't had a speaker all month. It could also be that the world has been on edge following the October 7th terror attacks. The war in the Middle East could escalate, which is a major new risk for the whole global economy.

And consumers don't spend as much money when they're worried about war. So, Yeties, Barbie sales surged over the summer and GDP popped over the summer. But stock prices look forward and the future got scarier in October. For our second story, Ford just ended one of the biggest auto-strived. in history. And there's a negotiation lesson here. The art of anchoring. Jack, let's whip out the calendars for a second. Hot Strike Summer become a no strike November. Yeties. Since September 15th, the UAW, the United Auto Workers have been on strike. With 149,000 workers of Ford General Motors and Chrysler, this was the main event of Hot Strike Summer. Like there were other strikes, this was

the strike. But for Ford, at least, Hot Strike Summer is over. Because here's the news. And Ford CEO Jim Farley just shook hands with union leader Sean Fain, and they agreed to a four and a half year Labor deal. Now the deal is going to go to a vote and the union members are expected to approve. And historically, once one of the Detroit car company signs a labor deal, the other two just, they kind of just jump in and do it too, don't they jack? No, they copy and paste. That's what they do. Don't forget to change the word Ford for GM, though. It's a big deal for two reasons. All right, and here they are. The first reason this auto deal is a big deal is because Jack's in the market for a car, aren't you, Jack?

Yeah, I'm actually trying to get a pickup truck, and it was making me sweat that all the pickup truck factories weren't running. Jack, like, begins every conversation we have saying, you know, I'm trying to get this Ford Fiesta and I can't get the price down on the APR. You know, I'm in the market for Tacoma right now. Those car companies didn't get back online. You were going to go Kia Sorrento, weren't you, Jack? The second reason that this is a big deal is that the strikes cost the car. The car companies, a lot of money. And we got the numbers on how much money they cost.

Each week, as more and more workers were walking off the job, it became more and more painful to the car companies. Here are the numbers, Yetis. This auto strike cost General Motors $200 million every single week. That's almost a billion dollars a month that GM is suffering when this strike continues. Nearly a billion dollars a month, sit down, stand up, and sit back down to that car seat again. So Ford stock opened higher on Thursday. gratitude that those strike losses are going to stop.

Now, Yetis, we know what you're wondering. What did workers get out of this strike? They got about half of what they were demanding. But here's the key, Yetis. Half of a big thing is still a big thing. If you asked for a big thing. And the auto workers, they asked for a big thing. They were asking for a lot.

Half of a lot is pretty darn good. And that is actually a negotiating tactic. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies who are negotiating something? The auto worker strike reveals the art of anchoring. Yet he's here's what the Ford workers will get. They will get a 25% pay raise plus a cost of living adjustment if inflation rises. What they won't get is the four-day work week and the pension that they were asking for. But here's the thing.

By asking for so much, the auto workers anchored the negotiation at a very high point. So when they ended up in the middle, it was still a historic win for auto workers. And this is the key. The United Auto Workers Union was willing to. walk away. Literally, they actually did walk away. And that gave them all the leverage to make high demands. Now, Besties Jack and I should point out in our negotiating experience, there is always a risk of anchoring too high. Yeah, the other side can walk away. And that could leave you stuck without a deal. The deal could fall apart. But this auto strike, it shows the negotiating power of anchoring.

Especially if you're willing to walk away. For our third and final story before the weekend, The number one stock on Wall Street for the last five years, it's an energy drink called Celsius. Celsius energy drink proves that overnight success can take 20 years. Jack, we got to go energy drink du jour. Let's look back on the history of the energy drinks, shall we? When we were in high school in 2005, it was Red Bull. Yeah, but then when we were in college in 2010, it was five-hour energy. When we were post-coe, in 2015, it was monster energy.

Somewhere in there was for a loco, but honestly, we can't really remember. It was a very short window, actually. Yet he's the energy drink industry. It's one of the top growth categories in beverage. It rose another 7% this year. And one of those booming energy drinks is Celsius. Celsius. It's like got a white can,

futuristicly silvery logo. How would you describe it, Jack? It's a drinkable can of Lulu Lemon. Yeah, it's basically spandex in a beverage. It tastes kind of like a gummy bag. It's like if a can of LaCroix bought an elliptical and did a lot of workouts, It would end up looking like a can of Celsius. In 2018, Celsius was a barely known publicly traded stock,

trading at just $3 a share. But Jack, where is Celsius energy drink stock today? $160 a share. It's up 4,000% in five years. Yeti's Celsius energy drink stock is up 4,000% since 2018. It's so big at this point that your local bodega probably has a Celsius-branded fridge just for Celsius. Now, Yeties, Jack and I heard that. these numbers, we got curious, and we had to know what is it driving Celsius energy?

Was it viral marketing? Was it the brand equity? Was it a celebrity investor? Was it a proprietary formula? What was it? It was none of the above. The Celsius energy drink surged, thanks to one random, lucky decision that happened eight years ago. Yeties, let's go back to 2015.

Coca-Cola saw an energy drink opportunity so it infested in Monster Energy. And part of the deal was that Monster had to see. switch its distribution over to Coca-Cola. Right. Monster Energy had to be distributed by Coca-Cola trucks, Coca-Cola's fleet, and get Coca-Cola's shelf space. So overnight, the previous distributors of Monster had a huge hole in their roster that they had to fill. Like, suddenly, their number one energy drink they'd been distributing to stores was like, it was gone. It was MIA. And according to Bloomberg reporting, those distributors quickly found a replacement. They replaced Monster with Celsius.

Celsius. Celsius used to have just one row. on the shelf at like your local deli. It was B-League. You needed a stool to get up to that top shelf to reach the can. And then some cat at the deli would like gnaw at you while you try to reach for the Celsius. But then, after this monster deal with Coke, Celsius had the whole shelf at eye level. Suddenly, Isle 6 at Kroger? It's Celsius as far as the eye can see.

When a huge opportunity showed up, Celsius was there to take it. That gym that always carried monster energy? The 7-11 nearby. Your local Wawa? They all started filling monster stuff. spot with Celsius cans. So Yeti's one decision by Coca-Cola eight years ago led to Celsius's rise today. It's kind of like when Drew Bledsoe got hurt and Tom Brady replaced him, went on to win like seven Super Bowls. Celsius, it's the TB12 of the energy sector. So Jack, what's the takeaway

for all our buddies who are entrepreneurs? Well, it looks like an overnight success can actually be 20 years in the making. Yetis, get this. Celsius, it's actually 20 years old. Its founders have dedicated half their lives to this product. While it may seem like an overnight success to investors on Wall Street, it's actually 20 years of hard work. Because 90% of life is just showing up. And when Monster Energy left, Celsius showed up. And capitalized on that big distribution opportunity. With that shelf space, Celsius delivered. And now it's a $12 billion company worth three lifts. This is a reminder that progress happens slowly and then suddenly it happens quickly. An overnight success is 20 years in the making.

Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday? This summer, the Barbie movie boosted Mattel sales as the economy overall was popping. But stocks fell, because investors don't look backward, they look forward. For our second story, Ford reached a tentative deal with the auto union offering workers a 25% pay raise. The negotiation lesson here? The art of anchoring. And our third and final story is Celsius. This energy drink stock is up 4,000. percent in five years because they replaced Monster. Yetis, what looks like an overnight success is actually 20 years in the making. But Yetis, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today.

First, President Biden announced his intention to push for a two-state solution in the Middle East. He said that Israelis and Palestinians equally deserve to live side by side in safety, dignity, and peace. And second, it's officially the one-year anniversary of Elon. taken over Twitter. And you know what? We just got data on how it's going. According to the Wall Street Journal, every social media app has gained monthly users in the past year except Twitter. And finally, the Beatles final song called Then and Now drops next Thursday on November 2nd, and it's not your typical Beatles song. It uses artificial intelligence to patch together John Lennon's voice from a bunch of tapes that Paul found. No joke, they literally used old tapes to recreate the Beatles.

You can listen to the trailer right now. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Monica Jamlang over in lovely Clayton, California. We talked last week about the five new sports coming to the Olympics in 2028. We also talked about five sports that have been eliminated from the Olympics. But we didn't mention this one. Did you know that architecture used to be an Olympic sport? Yeah, Monica is an architect in California.

And she told us that architecture was in the Olympics from 1912 to 1950. Now, we know what you're thinking. Were they asked to build a design with Lincoln logs on site? Like, were you getting like a silver medal for a skyscraper kind of a thing? You basically brought in designs and showed off photographs, and the winner was given medals. If you had a gravity-defying Corinthian buttress facade, boom, you got yourself a gold medal right there. The new extension at the Guggenheim? Yeah, that was me.

Didn't take very long either. Yeties, you looked fantastic all week. Remember, if you want to have fun this weekend, you can play our podcast. Pop-biz pop quiz. Check it out at go.t.tiboypod.com. We also got a link in this episode description. And if you're Jack, enjoy the weekend at a couple of car dealerships testing out a few chassis, man.

The crucial decision factor for me is the cup holder. Never underestimate it. Yeti's celebrate the wins this weekend in some lovely costumes. Jack and I will see you Monday. Now, Yeties, before we go, Jack and I know we have a lot of listeners up in the state of Maine. And Nick and I know what's happening in the state right now is an awful and scary ongoing situation. Now, Mainers, we're talking to you right now.

You're a beautiful state. You're a tough state. You go through incredibly hard winters. And you're filled with really warm, really amazing people. Jack and I have visited, and we think it's an amazing place. It's a salty state. And Nick and I love the state of Maine. And we're thinking of you on this dark day for the state.

Now, Jack, let's get to the shoutouts. Clay Drag a set. Clay, we know you are celebrating a birthday down in the Boogie Down East Village. Have a fantastic party this weekend. And happy 33rd birthday to Gabby Laura in South Paulo, Brazil. And Adosa Osevigay, happy birthday in Boston, just outside Boston. And happy birthday to Tommy Tish Ashimway in Portland, Maine. And Jenny Herrera is having a birthday, and she's about to have a baby birth birthday over in Falls Church, Virginia.

Happy birthday to Brianna Walkie, who's celebrating while training for the Philadelphia Marathon. And Coach Denzel Wals has got a birthday celebration with the team in Savannah, Georgia. Happy 29th to Henry Gomez, who's celebrating on a cruise down to Miami. And Isabel Weber's turning 25 with her puppy dusty in lovely Arlington, Virginia. And happy birthday to Tyler Furlin in Lake Villa, Illinois. Just outside Chicago. This man can wrap the entire T-boy intro, by the way. And congratulations and happy birthday to Jaron Gandleman over in San Francisco right here in the ferry building.

Happy birthday to Melinda Runger, who's celebrating with a full moon in San Francisco. And Marika Mendoza is turning 60 with a 16-course meal at the French laundry, not too shabby. Save us some sides. 16 courses. And that's not including the wine pair. 30 sips of wine. Pop that pino, Marika. And congratulations to J&K, who are celebrating an engagement anniversary in Seattle.

And Marina and Brock are celebrating a four-year anniversary together with a trip across the ocean. And huge news. for James and Jamie. They're moving in together with their cat in beautiful Grand Rapids, Michigan. Huge step, James and Jamie. Jack and I were pumped for you. That cat's pretty lucky. This is Jack. Nick and I both own stock of Lulu Lemon and ETFs of the S&P 500, and I own stock of Ford.